共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 328 毫秒
1.
对2017年春季黑龙江省大、小兴安岭林区的6个代表站点10 m风场进行降尺度分析,并结合观测数据对比分析了WRF模式和CALMET降尺度模式的10 m风速、风向预报结果。结果表明：两模式逐小时风速预报与观测的相关系数为0.5-0.7,且随着风速的增加,模式的预报准确率逐渐提高,夜间的风速预报偏差较大,进入白天后,偏差明显减小。WRF模式对风速变化趋势的预报效果优于CALMET模式,与观测的风速相关性更高,而CALMET模式对较大风速的预报效果优于WRF模式。在风向预报方面,WRF和CALMET的风向模拟与观测风向均有较好的一致性,模式预报准确率较高的两个风向也刚好对应各站的盛行风向。同时,本文用回归方法对日平均风速进行订正发现,订正后各站的日平均风速预报准确率平均提高了50%,具有较好的业务应用价值。 相似文献
2.
In this study, a long-term comparative assessment of the potential of wave power in the Black Sea was conducted using the calibrated and validated SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) model forced by two well-known wind fields. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP/CFSR) wind fields were used, covering data from 1979 to 2018. In general, the wave power potential based on the results of the CFSR wind field was found to be slightly higher than that obtained with the ERA-Interim wind field. The greatest discrepancy between the results of the ERA-Interim and CFSR wind fields was observed in the northeastern Black Sea. The spatial distributions of the wave power were also evaluated on a seasonal scale using wave parameters obtained from the calibrated SWAN model. The wave climate obtained from both long-term and seasonal assessments indicates that the western Black Sea, especially the southwestern Black Sea, is characterized by higher wave power potential and lower variability, while the eastern Black Sea has lower wave power potential and higher variability. Stable and powerful long-term wave conditions in the southwestern Black Sea can indicate that this region is a suitable location for wave farms. In contrast, the effect of the long-term variability on wave power is greatest in the eastern Black Sea owing to the highly variable wave conditions in this region. 相似文献
3.
回归分析是统计分析中常用的方法之一。传统的回归模型不具备全域分析能力,而变量场之间的关系多采用SVD（Singular Value Decomposition）进行分析,与传统的回归分析有所脱节。更为广义的线性回归模型是传统线性回归模型的延拓,在标量情况下,该模型可转化为传统线性回归模型。该模型的基本特征包含乘法不可互易性、等价于传统线性回归（因子项为标量时）、可分析性、延拓性、降维特征及容错性等。该模型解决了传统的线性回归模型不具备全域分析能力及模型表达能力受限于模型维数的现实问题。本文采用了NCEP（National Centers for Environmental Prediction）降水、高度场、风场月平均资料及国家气候中心西太平洋副热带高压指数资料,利用该模型和传统回归方案进行对比分析,分析结果表明,该模型具有一定的实用参考价值。 相似文献
4.
5.
By using the simulation results of an AGCM, which had been run from 1945 to 1993 forced by
COADS SST, the interdecadal variability of the model atmosphere was investigated and compared with that of
NCEP reanalysis data. It was found that, interdecadal variability exists significantly in both the tropical Pacific
wind fields and the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation of the model atmosphere. The tendency of time
variation and spatial distributions of the interdecadal variability of the model atmosphere are basically consistent with observation. Relative to the mid-high latitude atmospheric circulation, the simulation of tropical Pacific wind is more satisfying, which suggests that anomalous variation of SST is still the main factor for the
interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific wind. It might have more significant influence on the tropical wind
than on the mid-high latitude atmosphere. However, there is still obvious difference between the simulation and
observation. They could be attributed to both the simulation capability of the model and absence of other factors
in the model which are important for the interdecadal climate variation. 相似文献
6.
南海热带气旋大风的遗传－神经网络集合预报 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用1980-2012年的南海热带气旋实况资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,将热带气旋定位中心周边6×6格点上的地面风速作为预报对象,以气候持续预报因子和前期风速预报因子作为模型输入,采用遗传—神经网络集合预报方法,进行热带气旋定位中心周边36个格点上的风速预报模型的预报建模研究.分别对2008-2012年7-9月共368个独立预报样本进行遗传-神经网络集合方法的分月预报结果表明,南海热带气旋中心周边风速24h的预报平均绝对误差为2.35m.s-1.另外,本文还进一步将该预报方法与国内外普遍采用的逐步回归预报模型进行对比分析,在相同的预报量和预报因子的条件下的对比分析表明,新预报模型对≥10m.s-1的强风预报结果较逐步回归方法的优势明显,预报性能较好,可为沿海热带气旋大风预报提供新的参考. 相似文献
7.
By using data of serially numbered typhoons in northwestern Pacific and NOAA OLR data and
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data of wind field, based on the statistics and study of the relationship between the
calendar years with more (or fewer) summer typhoons and ENSO events, we compared the composites of OLR
eigenvectors and tropical summer wind fields during El Nino and La Nina events with more or fewer than
normal summer typhoons, respectively. The results show that, in summer, without remarkable systematic
anomalies of Mascarene High and Australia High in South Hemisphere, the anomaly of Walker circulation will
dominate and follow the rule of ENSO impacts to atmospheric circulation and typhoon frequency. Otherwise,
when systematic anomalies of Australia High appear during the El Nino events, circulation anomalies in the
South Hemisphere will dominate, and many more typhoons will occur. In 1999, which is a special year of La
Nina events, northward and eastward monsoon was induced by the stronger Mascarene High, and fewer
typhoons arose. The typhoon source are regions where weak vertical wind shear, warm pool in western Pacific
and the area with monsoon troughs are overlapping with each other. Finally, this paper analyzes and compares
the source locations and ranges of more (fewer) typhoons in the events of El Nino and La Nina, respectively. 相似文献
8.
The purpose of this study is to select a suitable sea wind retrieval method for FY-3B(MWRI). Based on the traditional empirical model of retrieving sea surface wind speed, and in the case of small sample size of FY-3B satellite load regression analysis, this paper analyzes the channel differences between the FY-3B satellite microwave radiation imager(MWRI) and TMI onboard the TRMM. The paper also analyzes the influence of these differences on the channel in terms of receiving temperature, including channel frequency, sensitivity and scaling precision. Then, the limited range of new model coefficient regression analysis is determined(in which the channel range settings include the information and features of channel differences), the regression methods of the finite field are proposed, and the empirical model of wind speed retrieval applicable to MWRI is obtained, which achieves robust results. Compared to the TAO buoy data, the mean deviation of the new model is 0.4 m/s, and the standard deviation is 1.2 m/s. In addition,the schematic diagram of the tropical sea surface wind speed retrieval is provided. 相似文献
9.
利用1951-2001年逐月NCEP再分析高度场、风场资料，COADS海表温度资料及中国147个台站逐月降水资料，运用SVD分析、SVD与回归分析相结合等方法，研究了太平洋SSTA与中国夏季降水年代际变化的相互关系，发现热带西太平洋是影响中国华南降水年代际变化的关键区，1950年代-1970年代后期，该海域SSTA为正，对应中国长江以南地区的夏季降水偏多，而长江以北则偏少；1970年代以后反之；影响中国长江中下游地区及其两侧降水年代际变化的关键区在中纬中部北太平洋，1970年代后期-1990年代前期，该海域SSTA为负，对应长江中下游夏季降水偏多，其两侧降水偏少；影响中国东北降水年代际变化的关键区是低纬中太平洋，1970年代-1980年代前期，低纬中太平洋SSTA为负，与之对应，中国东北夏季降水偏少；1950年代～1960年代中期、1990年代前、中期则反之。进一步对太平洋SSTA年代际变化影响中国夏季降水年代际变化的可能机制作了初步的研究。 相似文献
10.
基于南极18个站点探空气象观测数据对欧洲中期天气预报中心的再分析数据(ERA-Interim)和美国国家环境预报中心的再分析数据(NECP)在南极地区高层大气的适用性进行验证。结果表明:在南极上空,随着高度抬升,探空气象观测数据与两套再分析数据中四个气象要素的差值均逐渐变大,再分析数据数值愈加偏离实际观测数值。两套再分析数据的位势高度和温度与探空观测数据偏差较小;风向则和探空观测数据相差甚远;两套再分析数据的风速与探空观测数据在300 hPa偏差较大。在季节变化中,南极的春季,再分析数据中的位势高度和温度与探空观测数据相差较大,在其他季节相差相对较小。再分析数据中的风速与探空观测数据在南极的夏季相差较小。再分析数据中的风向与探空观测数据存在较大偏差,且差值没有明显的季节变化。尽管两套再分析数据都存在很大偏差,但ERA-Interim数据整体上优于NCEP数据。对比分析也表明,采用这些再分析资料作为初始条件和边界条件驱动南极区域大气模式将带来较大的误差。未来需要加强南极探空观测,改进再分析资料同化和数值模拟系统。 相似文献
11.
南海夏季风季节内振荡的年际变化研究 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
利用NCEP/NCAR风场、 垂直速度再分析资料和NOAA的逐日向外长波辐射 (简称OLR) 资料, 运用Butterworth带通滤波方法, 对南海夏季风季节内振荡 (简称ISO) 的特征和年际变化情况进行了初步研究。气候平均状况下ISO在亚洲季风区存在5个活动中心, 其中包括南海南部地区 (5°N～15°N, 110°E～120°E)。气候平均状况下南海ISO在5～9月有三次比较明显的活跃过程。以850 hPa风在西南方向上的投影 (Vsw) 经30～60天带通滤波后的绝对值在南海区域的夏季平均定义了当年南海夏季风ISO活动指数, 以此确定了南海夏季风ISO活跃年和不活跃年, 并由此提取了两者在逐日序列和水平分布场特征上的差异。通过对南海夏季风ISO活跃年与不活跃年ISO信号差别的研究发现: 在南海夏季风ISO活动较活跃年份的一个完整周期的8个位相合成中, 低频对流中心从热带印度洋西部东传到达南海后, 受Walker环流和西太平洋副热带高压底层东风气流阻挡等其它动力和热力因素的影响转向东北传。春季南海地区较强的Walker环流和对流活动有可能作为南海夏季风ISO活跃的前期信号。 相似文献
12.
Assessing wind energy is a key step in selecting a site for a wind farm. The accuracy of the assessment is essential for the future operation of the wind farm. There are two main methods for assessing wind power： one is based on observational data and the other relies on mesoscale numerical weather prediction（NWP）. In this study, the wind power of the Liaoning coastal wind farm was evaluated using observations from an anemometer tower and simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting（WRF） model, to see whether the WRF model can produce a valid assessment of the wind power and whether the downscaling process can provide a better evaluation. The paper presents long-term wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal, and diurnal variations at the wind farm, which is located on the east coast of Liaoning Province. The results showed that, in spring and summer, the wind speed, wind direction, wind power density, and other main indicators were consistent between the two methods. However, the values of these parameters from the WRF model were significantly higher than the observations from the anemometer tower. Therefore, the causes of the differences between the two methods were further analyzed. There was much more deviation in the original material, National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP） final（FNL） Operational Global Analysis data, in autumn and winter than in spring and summer. As the region is vulnerable to cold-air outbreaks and windy weather in autumn and winter, and the model usually forecasted stronger high or low systems with a longer duration, the predicted wind speed from the WRF model was too large. 相似文献
13.
Skill, reproducibility and potential predictability of the West African monsoon in coupled GCMs 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
In the framework of the ENSEMBLES FP6 project, an ensemble prediction system based on five different state-of-the-art European
coupled models has been developed. This study evaluates the performance of these models for forecasting the West African monsoon
(WAM) at the monthly time scale. From simulations started the 1 May of each year and covering the period 1991–2001, the reproducibility
and potential predictability (PP) of key parameters of the WAM—rainfall, zonal and meridional wind at four levels from the
surface to 200 hPa, and specific humidity, from July to September—are assessed. The Sahelian rainfall mode of variability
is not accurately reproduced contrary to the Guinean rainfall one: the correlation between observations (from CMAP) and the
multi-model ensemble mean is 0.17 and 0.55, respectively. For the Sahelian mode, the correlation is consistent with a low
PP of about ~6%. The PP of the Guinean mode is higher, ~44% suggesting a stronger forcing of the sea surface temperature on
rainfall variability over this region. Parameters relative to the atmospheric dynamics are on average much more skillful and
reproducible than rainfall. Among them, the first mode of variability of the zonal wind at 200 hPa that depicts the Tropical
Easterly Jet, is correlated at 0.79 with its “observed” counterpart (from the NCEP/DOE2 reanalyses) and has a PP of 39%. Moreover,
models reproduce the correlations between all the atmospheric dynamics parameters and the Sahelian rainfall in a satisfactory
way. In that context, a statistical adaptation of the atmospheric dynamic forecasts, using a linear regression model with
the leading principal components of the atmospheric dynamical parameters studied, leads to moderate receiver operating characteristic
area under the curve and correlation skill scores for the Sahelian rainfall. These scores are however much higher than those
obtained using the modelled rainfall. 相似文献
14.
Carried out is the statistical analysis of contemporary observed variations of air temperature and wind speed in the troposphere of the Northern Hemisphere based on the data on global surface air temperature for 1850–2013 obtained from the University of East Anglia Climate Research Unit (HadCRUT4) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1948–2013). Revealed are the long-term trends of air temperature and wind speed at different constant-pressure levels. Established is the anticipatory role of the zonal atmospheric circulation in the long-term variability of air temperature in the lower troposphere averaged for the zone of 30°–70° N. According to the results of correlation analysis, in some areas of the Northern Hemisphere the contribution of the wind speed to air temperature variability makes up not less than 60%. 相似文献
15.
采用二相回归方法并结合台站历史沿革信息,在对中国中部典型高山站南岳和庐山1960-2017年平均风速资料进行均一性检验和订正的基础上,分析其变化特征及其与周边低海拔台站的差异,并利用NCEP/NCAR再分析风速资料对其差异进行验证。结果表明：南岳站平均风速序列存在一个由测风仪器变更而导致的非均一点,而庐山站不存在非均一点;南岳和庐山年及四季平均风速均显著高于周边台站,且高山站以春季和夏季风速最大,而低海拔台站各季节风速差异较小;近58 a高山站及周边低海拔台站的年及四季平均风速均呈显著的减小趋势,但高山站的减小速率显著高于低海拔台站;同区域NCEP/NCAR的1000 hPa和850 hPa平均风速变化的差异与高山站和低海拔台站的差异基本一致,说明中低空和地面风速的这种差异在中国中部地区具有一定的普遍性。 相似文献
16.
利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、地面气象观测资料,重点分析了2013年1月成都地区一次重污染天气过程的天气背景以及地面气象要素演变。结果表明:(1)此次持续的污染天气出现在高空为弱脊控制且位势高度场异常偏高,地面处于变性高压脊或均压场且近地面层风速较弱的静稳天气背景下。(2)产生此次高污染(高AQI)的地面气象条件为:地面冷高压逐渐变性,近地面温度升高,海平面气压降低,近地面相对湿度升高至80%左右,无降水或弱降水,能见度将降低至于10km以下,地面风速减弱。(3)中低层弱风速,弱的水平风垂直切变,700h Pa层附近和近地面层的逆温层,不利于污染物在垂直方向上的扩散,使得污染进一步加剧。 相似文献
17.
CFSv2模式产品在汛期海南热带气旋频数预测模型中的应用 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
利用1982—2014年汛期影响海南的热带气旋频数、NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料和CFSv2模式历史回报数据,分析了热带气旋频数特征及同期环流特征,并利用逐步回归构建基于模式有效预测信息的热带气旋频数预测模型。结果表明:汛期影响海南热带气旋频数的异常与同期大尺度环流变化密切相关,且CFSv2模式对其环流影响关键区具有较好的预测技巧,包括南海到热带太平洋的海平面气压、500 h Pa位势高度场、低层风及热带太平洋纬向风切变。据此,利用逐步回归构建热带气旋频数预测模型,其26 a交叉检验中实况与预测相关为0.88,距平同号率达88%;6 a预测试验仅2 a预测与观测反号,可见模型具有良好的稳定性和预测技巧,可为汛期热带气旋频数预测提供依据。 相似文献
18.
In this study, long-term change of wind characteristics on the Black Sea has been investigated using two widely used data sources, i.e., European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-Interim and National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP/CFSR), spanning 40 years between 1979 and 2018. Spatial and seasonal variability of climatic features such as the wind speed, direction, number and duration of storms, and wind power density are discussed. Wind climate is characterized by strong, durable and stable winds in the northern and western Black Sea, and relatively weak, short-lived and highly-variable winds in the eastern Black Sea. These long-term wind patterns indicate that the eastern part of the basin is likely to be subjected to the impacts of climate change. Long-term stable and strong wind conditions in the southwest part indicate reliable, persistent and sustainable wind energy potential. Long-term and seasonal variation of wind power density (WPD) at 110 m altitude over the Black Sea is investigated. There is a significant difference in WPD values between winter and summer seasons, with around 2.8 times larger WPD in winter than that in summer. In the western Black Sea, narrow confidence intervals observed in each season indicate a low level of variation during a season and ensures stable wind power conditions. 相似文献
19.
The development of the Novorossiysk bora on February 5–6, 2010 is simulated with high spatial and temporal resolution using the regional model of atmospheric circulation. Considered are typical features of the wind speed and air temperature fields. Singled out are two regimes defining the type of the air flowing around the mountain ridge and the temporal variability (gustiness) of the surface wind speed. 相似文献
20.
利用2000年3月—2017年3月Terra卫星反演的MODIS气溶胶光学厚度(Aerosol Optical Depth,AOD)资料、NCEP的fnl全球业务分析数据、CMAP降水资料、CERES SYN1deg Ed 4月平均资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料等,依据中国东部冬季区域平均AOD距平具有显著的年际变化特征,将历年冬季AOD划分为5个不同的污染等级,并探讨了不同污染等级的局地成因及其与冬季风环流的联系。结果表明,中国东部冬季AOD区域平均值与气候要素场有很好的相关关系,即AOD异常偏高(低)时,入射到地面的太阳短波辐射通量减小(增加),地面气温降低(增加),地气系统冷却(加热),地面降水呈现华北与江淮内陆少、江淮东南多(华北与江淮西南部多、江淮地区东部少)的分布特征。中国东部AOD值异常偏高与风速异常偏小有关,且这种负相关关系在华北表现最明显:即AOD异常偏高(低)时,华北地面风速偏小(大),江淮地面风速偏大(小)。个例分析表明,纬向风速异常偏小、东风异常及阿留申低压偏弱是2013年AOD异常偏高的主要原因。 相似文献