共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
If observed oil and gas field size distributions are obtained by random samplings, the fitted distributions should approximate that of the parent population of oil and gas fields. However, empirical evidence strongly suggests that larger fields tend to be discovered earlier in the discovery process than they would be by random sampling. Economic factors also can limit the number of small fields that are developed and reported. This paper examines observed size distributions in state and federal waters of offshore Texas. Results of the analysis demonstrate how the shape of the observable size distributions change with significant hydrocarbon price changes. Comparison of state and federal observed size distributions in the offshore area shows how production cost differences also affect the shape of the observed size distribution. Methods for modifying the discovery rate estimation procedures when economic factors significantly affect the discovery sequence are presented. A primary conclusion of the analysis is that, because hydrocarbon price changes can significantly affect the observed discovery size distribution, one should not be confident about inferring the form and specific parameters of the parent field size distribution from the observed distributions.This paper was presented at Emerging Concepts, MGUS-87 Conference, Redwood City, California, 13–15 April 1987. 相似文献
2.
Two methods are compared for estimating the shape parameters of Pareto field-size (or pool-size) distributions for petroleum
resource assessment. Both methods assume mature exploration in which most of the larger fields have been discovered. Both
methods use the sizes of larger discovered fields to estimate the numbers and sizes of smaller fields: (1) the tail-truncated
method uses a plot of field size versus size rank, and (2) the log–geometric method uses data binned in field-size classes
and the ratios of adjacent bin counts. Simulation experiments were conducted using discovered oil and gas pool-size distributions
from four petroleum systems in Alberta, Canada and using Pareto distributions generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The estimates
of the shape parameters of the Pareto distributions, calculated by both the tail-truncated and log–geometric methods, generally
stabilize where discovered pool numbers are greater than 100. However, with fewer than 100 discoveries, these estimates can
vary greatly with each new discovery. The estimated shape parameters of the tail-truncated method are more stable and larger
than those of the log–geometric method where the number of discovered pools is more than 100. Both methods, however, tend
to underestimate the shape parameter. Monte Carlo simulation was also used to create sequences of discovered pool sizes by
sampling from a Pareto distribution with a discovery process model using a defined exploration efficiency (in order to show
how biased the sampling was in favor of larger fields being discovered first). A higher (more biased) exploration efficiency
gives better estimates of the Pareto shape parameters. 相似文献
3.
The assumption of lognormal (parent) field size distributions has for a long time been applied to resource appraisal and evaluation of exploration strategy by the petroleum industry. However, frequency distributions estimated with observed data and used to justify this hypotheses are conditional. Examination of various observed field size distributions across basins and over time shows that such distributions should be regarded as the end result of an economic filtering process. Commercial discoveries depend on oil and gas prices and field development costs. Some new fields are eliminated due to location, depths, or water depths. This filtering process is called economic truncation. Economic truncation may occur when predictions of a discovery process are passed through an economic appraisal model. We demonstrate that (1) economic resource appraisals, (2) forecasts of levels of petroleum industry activity, and (3) expected benefits of developing and implementing cost reducing technology are sensitive to assumptions made about the nature of that portion of (parent) field size distribution subject to economic truncation. 相似文献
4.
成熟勘探区剩余资源量的多少倍受关注。根据金湖凹陷的油藏规模分布特征,应用分形方法估计该区的石油地质资源。石油地质资源总量为12284×104t,分布在507个油藏中;其中未发现的具有经济价值的石油地质资源量为2740×104t,分布在126个油藏中。这反映了该区的油气勘探程度较高,但仍有一定的勘探潜力,大量中-小油藏是今后勘探的主攻目标。分形方法作为油气资源评价的一种新途径,计算过程简便,结果可靠,应用前景广阔。 相似文献
5.
The applied context of this paper is the exploration for petroleum resources, like petroleum accumulations in different deposits, where the most promising deposits are likely to be drilled first, based on some size indicators, so-called creaming. The paper explores creaming models in the context of sampling with probabilities in proportion to size, for which a lognormal size distribution has nice analytical features. It departs from the traditional paradigm in petroleum resource assessment. Instead of conceiving a finite population being depleted over time in a decaying fashion with respect to size, the situation is studied within the framework of independent observations (infinite population) and an exploration maturity-dependent creaming factor. The theoretical and practical consequences for inference on the parent population and the probabilities and expectations linked to future discoveries are studied. The theory applies to the issue of remaining sizes of petroleum resources to be found within different future discovery horizons on the mature part of the Norwegian Continental Shelf. The aim is to obtain reasonable and useful predictions, and not to provide the best possible explanation of the exploratory behavior itself. 相似文献
6.
随着勘探的不断深入,越来越多的凝析气藏被发现,并受到重视。目前全球共发现106个大型凝析气田,分布于全球70多个沉积盆地。凝析气田主要分布于西西伯利亚盆地、滨里海盆地、波斯湾盆地、扎格罗斯盆地、美国墨西哥湾及塔里木盆地等。通过对全球各大凝析气田进行系统的研究,发现凝析气藏主要分布在石炭系—新近系储层中,以构造圈闭为主,储集体物性较差,属于低孔低渗型,凝析气和凝析油的密度均相对较低。凝析气田的形成和展布主要受控于有效烃源岩分布、有利的储盖组合、圈闭类型、晚期成藏、特殊的温压系统和烃类体系组分等条件。根据其成因机理,将凝析气藏分为原生凝析气藏和次生凝析气藏。 相似文献
7.
川西坳陷中段具备多套烃源层、多个烃源区、多期油气生成、多期油气成藏同时又经历了多个构造期调整和破坏,纵向上发育的多套生储盖组合孕育了多层含气层系。天然气碳同位素分析表明,该区上三叠统须家河组产出的部分天然气乙烷碳同位素具有明显偏负的特征,相关图版的判别显示,这部分天然气具有原油裂解气的性质。同时在研究区上三叠统须家河组储层中发现了大量的储层沥青充填物,通过岩芯观察、显微照片、元素、热解等分析,发现该储层沥青充填物具有多种类型、多种分布形态、边界较为清楚等特征,且这些沥青充填物的反射率较高,尤其是须二段的储层沥青,这一特征与焦沥青的基本特征类似,表现为油藏裂解后残余物的特征,原油裂解气和焦沥青的发现证实了川西坳陷中段须家河组古油藏的存在。在此基础上,通过综合分析生油及裂解条件等,对研究区须家河组古油藏裂解气成藏模式进行了初步探讨,将这一过程分为印支晚期古油藏形成、燕山中期古油藏裂解、燕山晚期-喜山期气藏调整三个连续的阶段,这对深化认识川西坳陷中段天然气的成因和分布具有一定的意义。 相似文献
8.
Summary Usually, rock joints are observed in outcrops and excavation walls only as traces. Under some assumptions about the shapes of the joints and the nature of their size distributions, the underlying joint size distribution can be estimated from trace length measurements. However, the interpretation of trace length distributions from line mapping data should be approached with caution. The data are always length-biased and furthermore, the semi-trace length, the trace length, and the underlying joint size may have different distributional forms. Semi-trace length distributions are monotonic decreasing functions not sensitive to changes in the real trace length distributions. Experimental full trace length distributions are shown to have lognormal distributions and to be insensitive to major changes in the underlying joint size distributions. Under the assumptions of joint convexity and circularity a parametric model for the three-dimensional distribution of joint sizes is developed. A maximum likelihood estimation of the distribution of joint diameters, which best reflects the observed joint trace data, and corrects simultaneously for joint censoring, truncation and size bias, is developed. The theory is illustrated with numerical examples using data collected from five field sites. 相似文献
9.
辽河西部凹陷油气资源非常丰富,通过对己勘探发现的773个油气藏的地质特征参数统计认为,西部凹陷油气藏类型非常丰富,但主要以构造和岩性油气藏为主,且复合油气藏发育,统计表明,近90%的油气藏与断裂有关。油气藏类型受构造带控制作用明显,缓坡带最要以背斜、岩性构造油气藏为主,中央背斜带背斜断块油气藏较为发育,而陡坡带则多为岩性油气藏。沉积相带控油气作用明显,油气藏主要分布在扇三角洲、三角洲和浊积扇相。油气资源在空间上遵循“油气总量平衡模式”,无论在平面上还是层位上,油气资源互补特征性强。研究认为西部凹陷具有生烃洼陷、断裂、异常压力、沉积相带联合控藏的特点。首先沙三段、沙四段有效烃源岩大量发育,资源量极为丰富,为西部凹陷油气富集提供了物质保证,油气藏分布主要受生烃洼陷控制;各组段砂体叠合连片,平面展布连续,具较好的储集能力,也为油气的侧向运移提供的条件;另外东营末期因走滑引起的大量泄压断裂发育,为油气大规模远距离垂向运移提供了可能。 相似文献
10.
济阳坳陷八面河探区油气资源前景和勘探效益预测 总被引：13，自引：1，他引：13
在对山东省八面河探区基本石油地质特征、勘探历程及实际的勘探效益和累积发现地质储量变化分析基础上，应用基于探区油藏总体服从帕莱托分布假设的抽样分析发现过程模型，对其石油资源潜力和油藏总体分布进行了预测；并在预测结果的基础上，应用所建立的勘探效益预测仿真模型，对探区勘探效益变化进行了模拟，且外推了未来勘探效益及累积发现地质储量的变化趋势。通过发现过程模型预测，八面河探区总资源量为14900储量单位，剩余资源量为5300储量单位，其中大部分剩余资源分布于较小规模的油藏中。从勘探效益分析可知，八面河探区已进入成熟的勘探阶段，预计未来平均每日探井发现地质储量将小于28储量单位，勘探效益处于一定稳定、低效且缓慢下降的阶段。 相似文献
11.
Multiple source rock assemblages were deposited in the sedimentary provinces in South China in geologic history,and some of them were destructed by and some survived against multiple tectonic movements.Therefore,multiple sources,mixed sources,and uneven distribution of sources occurred in the marine sedimentary basins in South China during the late stage of hydrocarbon pooling.Epidiagenesis of the marine carbonate reservoirs and its modification to reservoir poroperm characteristics determined the formation and the scale of natural gas pools.The exploration practices show that the large to medium gas fields mainly occur in areas with high-quality reservoirs.Detailed study of the paleo-oil accumulations and typical oil and gas reservoirs reveals that the basins experienced multiphase superimposition and modification,leading to the distribution of the Paleozoic paleo-oil accumulations and bitumen in the peripheral areas.The phenomenon that oil and gas production concentrates in the Sichuan basin indicates that the overall sealing conditions of a basin determine the oil/gas potentials and the scale of oil and gas production.This is a critical factor controlling the accumulation and distribution of gas in the marine sequences in South China.The early oil and gas pools in the Yangtze platform left billions of bitumen in the peripheral areas due to the destruction of seals.Since the Himalayan,"late-generation and late-accumulation" gas pools represented by the gas pools in the Sichuan (四川) basin were formed in the marine sedimentary sequences in South China as a result of the change of the sealing conditions.Current gas discoveries appear to be "paleo-generation and paleo-accumulation" gas pools but actually are "late-generation and late-accumulation" gas pools.These patterns of hydrocarbon pooling clearly depict themselves in western Sichuan basin and Weiyuan (威远)gas field.It is revealed that the gas pools in the Sichuan basin were mainly formed as a result of hydrocarbon phase change (thermal cracking of oil to gas),miscible migration,and dynamic equilibration since the Himalayan.A large number of gas pools were formed in the Himalayan and the gas pools in the marine sequences are characterized by late pooling; this kind of gas fields/pools are controlled by:(1) effectiveness of modification and superimposition of the marine basins,(2) effectiveness of the source rocks,(3) effectiveness of the overall preservation conditions,and (4) effectiveness of plays. 相似文献
12.
油气田中油气的分异作用——以塔里木盆地牙哈凝析油气田为例 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
塔里木盆地牙哈油气田是我国迄今发现的最大的凝析油气田,由12个油气藏组成,油气分布具有“西油东气”、“上气下油”、“上轻下重”的特征,这种特征的形成,是油气自西北分两个高峰期注入和在重力作用下分异的结果,呈现了“中部注入的正向差异聚集”的模式。这种模式与Gussow和Schowalter所建立的模式在形成机制或油气分布方面有所不同。 相似文献
13.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(4):330-345
Practically all oil and gas accumulations throughout the world are associated with some extensive productive series which consist of highly permeable rocks containing oil and gas pools, interbedded with shales and marls containing dispersed organic matter. All of the important recent discoveries between the Volga and the Urals were based on the observed association of oil and gas pools with certain lithologic-stratigraphic complexes of the Devonian, Carboniferous, and part of the Permian; although accumulation is related to many diverse Structural zones. Here, the productive series is the source rock as well, for the pelites contain dispersed organic matter including bitumen whose composition is related to the oils. Where accumulations occur in sediments deposited under oxidizing conditions, factors are sought which favor migration from possible source rocks along faults, unconformities, or surfaces of facies change. For example, in Azerbaidjan and Turkmenistan large oil and gas accumulations in Pliocene continental beds occur along structural zones that allowed migration from underlying, principally Paleogene and Miocene, deposits. As shales compact, their organic constituents gradually change; the coaly part from a ligniferous to a carboniferous stage and, ultimately, to graphite. The mobile bituminous substances formed by dissociation of organic matter and disproportioning of hydrogen, change from asphaltines and resins to oils and then to methane in the subcapillary pores of pelites, where they are in a dispersed, loosely bound state. Compaction causes slow removal of the loosely bound water and molecular migration with differentiation of the bituminous substances. After differentiation, the more mobile hydrocarbons are carried by the water into reservoir rocks. The bituminous substances move from small to large pores also by capillary forces. Migration in subcapillary pores apparently ceases when rocks become lithified and are no longer plastic. In the super-capillary pores and fissures of reservoir rock, free migration takes place as both molecular migration and movement in larger masses. Water circulates in reservoir beds from elevated areas of the outcrop toward lower discharge areas. When the hydrocarbon-bearing water moves into different environments of temperature and pressure, the hydrocarbons may come out of solution, rise to the top of the carrier-beds, and unite into oil and gas pools if traps are available. The location of oil and gas reflects the present equilibrium of fluids with the structural pattern and hydrogeological environment. --D. C. Van Siclen. 相似文献
14.
Willy Dyck 《Journal of Geochemical Exploration》1976,5(1-2)
A literature review of the source and occurrence of helium shows that it can, under favorable conditions, lead to the discovery of radioactive ore deposits, oil and gas pools, and fracture zones associated with mineral occurrences. Analytical results show that anomalous helium is present in groundwaters and near uranium occurrences and thus can aid in the identification of uranium occurrences or prospective target areas for uranium exploration. 相似文献
15.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(11):1068-1075
Gas logging may be used for the geochemical study of exploratory and other wells in prospecting for oil and gas pools in deep deposits. The analysis of gas logging data in known oil and gas deposits makes it possible to observe definite regularities in hydrocarbon-gas distribution that are associated with the process of the migration of these gases. The most important elements in the hydrocarbon characteristics of gas logging are: the depth of the first appearance of hydrocarbons in the well, the magnitude of the concentration gradient, and the shape of the hydrocarbon curve. Quantitative changes can be noted between the gas logging data of areas with the more permeable rocks of Tertiary and Cretaceous age and areas composed of more dense and less permeable strata of Paleozoic age. In the Stavropol province, Stalingrad region, and in western and eastern Siberia, studies of gas-logging data show the following: In structures containing significant accumulation of oil and gas, the hydrocarbon gases produce maxima in the crests of uplifts and minima on the flanks. These maxima have been traced in different stratigraphic horizons, and their intensity diminishes towards the earth's surface. In structures with insignificant accumulations of oil and gas, the hydrocarbon maxima are either poorly developed or absent entirely. Also observed is a zonal distribution of nitrogen and carbon dioxide depending on the structural elements of the uplift. It is necessary to improve the apparatus used in core sampling and gas analysis. Apparatus used in gas analysis should be capable of fractional determinations of heavy hydrocarbons to within hundredths and thousandths of a percent. It is also necessary to be able to determine methane and nitrogen over a wider range of concentrations. — Auth. English Summ. 相似文献
16.
Undiscovered oil and gas assessments are commonly reported as aggregate estimates of hydrocarbon volumes. Potential commercial value and discovery costs are, however, determined by accumulation size, so engineers, economists, decision makers, and sometimes policy analysts are most interested in projected discovery sizes. The lognormal and Pareto distributions have been used to model exploration target sizes. This note contrasts the outcomes of applying these alternative distributions to the play level assessments of the U.S. Geological Survey's 1995 National Oil and Gas Assessment. Using the same numbers of undiscovered accumulations and the same minimum, medium, and maximum size estimates, substitution of the shifted truncated lognormal distribution for the shifted truncated Pareto distribution reduced assessed undiscovered oil by 16% and gas by 15%. Nearly all of the volume differences resulted because the lognormal had fewer larger fields relative to the Pareto. The lognormal also resulted in a smaller number of small fields relative to the Pareto. For the Permian Basin case study presented here, reserve addition costs were 20% higher with the lognormal size assumption. 相似文献
17.
哈萨克斯坦共和国油气地质资源分析 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
哈萨克斯坦共和国地处中亚并与我国接壤,石油天然气资源潜力巨大,陆上油、气可采储量分别为21亿吨和16000亿立方米,而海上油气资源更加丰富,目前已发现油气田200余个,包括油田、油气田、凝析气田和气田等多种油气组合,集中分布在哈萨克斯坦国西部各含油气省.该国含油气面积约为170万平方公里,滨里海、中里海-曼格什拉克和乌斯丘尔特沉积盆地具有十分丰富的油气资源,楚河-萨雷苏伊盆地和锡尔河盆地也有油气发现. 相似文献
18.
笔者根据我国陆相盆地富油、海相地层盆油、“盆小油量大”、油气与金属－非金属矿床伴生等特点，提出油气成藏物质侧向源的观点，依据碰撞造山成岩成矿与流体作用模式（CPMF）分析盆山转变过程中流体产生，运移，有机－无机分离和富集的机制，建立了盆山转换过程流体作用与油气侧向源模式。从油气田富集金属元素，造山带金属矿床成矿流体含烃类等有机组分，盆地沉积所堆积的有机质随盆山转换而形成油气，现代油气盆地与造山带金属矿集区空间耦合等4个方面论证了油气成藏物质侧向源的客观性和流体运移成藏模式的科学性。讨论了中国陆相油气藏的形成和分布规律，提出了今后油气勘查的方法。 相似文献
19.
David R. Collins 《Mathematical Geology》1985,17(4):375-393
An alternative to time sequence evaluation of field size distributions is presented. Oil fields are ranked in relation to level of prior exploration in the vicinity of discovery wells. Field size distribution patterns for discoveries at sequential levels of prior exploration are evaluated independently from the time sequence of discoveries within the region. Interregional comparisons are made in terms of field discoveries at equivalent levels of prior exploration. The study area covers a large region (approximately 78,000 Km
2
) of central and northwest Kansas. 相似文献
20.
天然气藏与油藏形成机理及分布特征的异同 总被引：13，自引：3，他引：10
作为流体矿藏气藏与油藏的形成和分布具有相似性,都需要经过由分散到富集的成藏过程。天然气来源的广泛性和易于溶解、运移、散失的特性,决定了天然气双石油具有更多的运聚成藏方式和时空分布的广泛性。水溶对流运移、多源复合成藏、溶解气脱溶成藏、运聚动平衡成藏,是天然气运聚成藏的重要特点。 相似文献