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1.
A near-global grid-point nudging of the Arpege-Climat atmospheric General Circulation Model towards ECMWF reanalyses is used to diagnose the regional versus remote origin of the summer model biases and variability over West Africa. First part of this study revealed a limited impact on the monsoon climatology compared to a control experiment without nudging, but a significant improvement of interannual variability, although the amplitude of the seasonal anomalies remained underestimated. Focus is given here on intraseasonal variability of monsoon rainfall and dynamics. The reproducible part of these signals is investigated through 30-member ensemble experiments computed for the 1994 rainy season, a year abnormally wet over the Sahel but representative of the model systematic biases. In the control experiment, Arpege-Climat simulates too few rainy days that are associated with too low rainfall amounts over the central and western Sahel, in line with the seasonal dry biases. Nudging the model outside Africa tends to slightly increase the number of rainy days over the Sahel, but has little effect on associated rainfall amounts. However, results do indicate that a significant part of the monsoon intraseasonal variability simulated by Arpege-Climat is controlled by lateral boundary conditions. Parts of the wet/dry spells over the Sahel occur in phase in the 30 members of the nudging experiment, and are therefore embedded in larger-scale variability patterns. Inter-member spread is however not constant across the selected summer season. It is partly controlled by African Easterly Waves, which show dissimilar amplitude from one member to another, but a coherent phasing in all members. A lowpass filtering of the nudging fields suggests that low frequency variations in the lateral boundary conditions can lead to eastward extensions of the African Easterly Jet, creating a favorable environment for easterly waves, while high frequency perturbations seem to control their phasing.  相似文献   

2.
While organized tropical convection is a well-known source of extratropical planetary waves, state-of-the-art climate models still show serious deficiencies in simulating accurately the atmospheric response to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the associated teleconnections. In the present study, the remote influence of the tropical atmospheric circulation is evaluated in ensembles of global boreal summer simulations in which the Arpege-Climat atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) is nudged towards 6-h reanalyses. The nudging is applied either in the whole tropical band or in a regional summer monsoon domain. Sensitivity tests to the experimental design are first conducted using prescribed climatological SST. They show that the tropical relaxation does not improve the zonal mean extratropical climatology but does lead to a significantly improved representation of the mid-latitude stationary waves in both hemispheres. Low-pass filtering of the relaxation fields has no major effect on the model response, suggesting that high-frequency tropical variability is not responsible for extratropical biases. Dividing the nudging strength by a factor 10 only decreases the magnitude of the response. Model errors in each monsoon domain contribute to deficiencies in the model??s mid-latitude climatology, although an exaggerated large-scale subsidence in the central equatorial Pacific appears as the main source of errors for the representation of stationary waves in the Arpege-Climat model. Case studies are then conducted using either climatological or observed SST. The focus is first on summer 2003 characterized by a strong and persistent anticyclonic anomaly over western Europe. This pattern is more realistic in nudging experiments than in simulations only driven by observed SST, especially when the nudging domain is centred over Central America. Other case studies also show a significant tropical forcing of the summer mid-latitude stationary waves and suggest a weak influence of prescribed observed SST in the northern extratropics. Results therefore indicate that improving the tropical divergent circulation and its response to tropical SST anomalies remains a key issue for increasing the skill of extratropical seasonal predictions, not only in the winter hemisphere but also in the boreal summer hemisphere where the prediction of heatwave and drought likelihood is expected to become an important challenge with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases.  相似文献   

3.
General circulation models still show deficiencies in simulating the basic features of the West African Monsoon at intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales. It is however, difficult to disentangle the remote versus regional factors that contribute to such deficiencies, and to diagnose their possible consequences for the simulation of the global atmospheric variability. The aim of the present study is to address these questions using the so-called grid point nudging technique, where prognostic atmospheric fields are relaxed either inside or outside the West African Monsoon region toward the ERA40 reanalysis. This regional or quasi-global nudging is tested in ensembles of boreal summer simulations. The impact is evaluated first on the model climatology, then on intraseasonal timescales with an emphasis on North Atlantic/Europe weather regimes, and finally on interannual timescales. Results show that systematic biases in the model climatology over West Africa are mostly of regional origin and have a limited impact outside the domain. A clear impact is found however on the eddy component of the extratropical circulation, in particular over the North Atlantic/European sector. At intraseasonal timescale, the main regional biases also resist to the quasi-global nudging though their magnitude is reduced. Conversely, nudging the model over West Africa exerts a strong impact on the frequency of the two North Atlantic weather regimes that favor the occurrence of heat waves over Europe. Significant impacts are also found at interannual timescale. Not surprisingly, the quasi-global nudging allows the model to capture the variability of large-scale dynamical monsoon indices, but exerts a weaker control on rainfall variability suggesting the additional contribution of regional processes. Conversely, nudging the model toward West Africa suppresses the spurious ENSO teleconnection that is simulated over Europe in the control experiment, thereby emphasizing the relevance of a realistic West African monsoon simulation for seasonal prediction in the extratropics. Further experiments will be devoted to case studies aiming at a better understanding of regional processes governing the monsoon variability and of the possible monsoon teleconnections, especially over Europe.  相似文献   

4.
Regional climate model (RCM) is a valuable scientific tool to address the mechanisms of regional atmospheric systems such as the West African monsoon (WAM). This study aims to improve our understanding of the impact of some physical schemes of RCM on the WAM representation. The weather research and forecasting model has been used by performing six simulations of the 2006 summer WAM season. These simulations use all combinations of three convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) and two planetary boundary layer schemes (PBLSs). By comparing the simulations to a large set of observations and analysis products, we have evaluated the ability of these RCM parameterizations to reproduce different aspects of the regional atmospheric circulation of the WAM. This study focuses in particular on the WAM onset and the rainfall variability simulated over this domain. According to the different parameterizations tested, the PBLSs seem to have the strongest effect on temperature, humidity vertical distribution and rainfall amount. On the other hand, dynamics and precipitation variability are strongly influenced by CPSs. In particular, the Mellor?CYamada?CJanjic PBLS attributes more realistic values of humidity and temperature. Combined with the Kain?CFritsch CPS, the WAM onset is well represented. The different schemes combination tested also reveal the role of different regional climate features on WAM dynamics, namely the low level circulation, the land?Catmosphere interactions and the meridional temperature gradient between the Guinean coast and the Sahel.  相似文献   

5.
Subseasonal forecast skills and biases of global summer monsoons are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the NCEP Climate Forecast System version 2. Predictions for subseasonal variability of zonal wind and precipitation are generally more skillful over the Asian and Australian monsoon regions than other monsoon regions. Climatologically, forecasts for the variations of dynamical monsoon indices have high skills at leads of about 2 weeks. However, apparent interannual differences exist, with high skills up to 5 weeks in exceptional cases. Comparisons for the relationships of monsoon indices with atmospheric circulation and precipitation patterns between skillful and unskillful forecasts indicate that skills for subseasonal variability of a monsoon index depend partially on the degree to which the observed variability of the index attributes to the variation of large-scale circulation. Thus, predictions are often more skillful when the index is closely linked to atmospheric circulation over a broad region than over a regional and narrow range. It is also revealed that, the subseasonal variations of biases of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature over various monsoon regions are captured by a first mode with seasonally independent biases and a second mode with apparent phase transition of biases during summer. The first mode indicates the dominance of overall weaker-than-observed summer monsoons over major monsoon regions. However, at certain stages of monsoon evolution, these underestimations are regionally offset or intensified by the time evolving biases portrayed by the second mode. This feature may be partially related to factors such as the shifts of subtropical highs and intertropical convergence zones, the reversal of biases of surface temperature over some monsoon regions, and the transition of regional circulation system. The significant geographical differences in bias growth with increasing lead time reflect the distinctions of initial memory capability of the climate system over different monsoon regions.  相似文献   

6.
黄昕  周天军  吴波  陈晓龙 《大气科学》2019,43(2):437-455
本文通过与观测和再分析资料的对比,评估了LASG/IAP发展的气候系统模式FGOALS的两个版本FGOALS-g2和FGOALS-s2对南亚夏季风的气候态和年际变率的模拟能力,并使用水汽收支方程诊断,研究了造成降水模拟偏差的原因。结果表明,两个模式夏季气候态降水均在陆地季风槽内偏少,印度半岛附近海域偏多,在降水年循环中表现为夏季北侧辐合带北推范围不足。FGOALS-g2中赤道印度洋"东西型"海温偏差导致模拟的东赤道印度洋海上辐合带偏弱,而FGOALS-s2中印度洋"南北型"海温偏差导致模拟的海上辐合带偏向西南。水汽收支分析表明,两个模式中气候态夏季风降水的模拟偏差主要来自于整层积分的水汽通量,尤其是垂直动力平流项的模拟偏差。一方面,夏季阿拉伯海和孟加拉湾的海温偏冷而赤道西印度洋海温偏暖,造成向印度半岛的水汽输送偏少;另一方面,对流层温度偏冷,冷中心位于印度半岛北部对流层上层,同时季风槽内总云量偏少,云长波辐射效应偏弱,对流层经向温度梯度偏弱以及大气湿静力稳定度偏强引起的下沉异常造成陆地季风槽内降水偏少。在年际变率上,观测中南亚夏季风环流和降水指数与Ni?o3.4指数存在负相关关系,但FGOALS两个版本模式均存在较大偏差。两个模式中与ENSO暖事件相关的沃克环流异常下沉支和对应的负降水异常西移至赤道以南的热带中西印度洋,沿赤道非对称的加热异常令两个模式中越赤道环流季风增强,导致印度半岛南部产生正降水异常。ENSO相关的沃克环流异常下沉支及其对应的负降水异常偏西与两个模式对热带南印度洋气候态降水的模拟偏差有关。研究结果表明,若要提高FGOALS两个版本模式对南亚夏季风气候态模拟技巧,需减小耦合模式对印度洋海温、对流层温度及云的模拟偏差;若要提高南亚夏季风和ENSO相关性模拟技巧需要提高模式对热带印度洋气候态降水以及与ENSO相关的环流异常的模拟能力。  相似文献   

7.
南亚夏季风的变化决定着印度半岛的旱涝状况,气候系统模式则是研究南亚夏季风变化规律的重要工具。本文基于观测和JRA55再分析资料,系统评估了FGOALS-g3模式模拟的南亚夏季风气候态和年际变率,并重点关注FGOALS-g3与FGOALS-g2以及是否考虑海气相互作用的模拟差异。结果表明,由于局地海温模拟的变化,相比于FGOALS-g2,FGOALS-g3模拟的南亚夏季风在气候态热带印度洋信风和El Ni?o期间沃克环流下沉支上有明显改进。同时,由于对流层系统性冷偏差持续存在并且中心位于副热带300 hPa附近,造成气候态上经向温度梯度减弱,使季风环流减弱,导致FGOALS-g3中陆地季风槽的水汽辐散偏差和降水干偏差仍然存在;在年际变率上,FGOALS-g3模拟的El Ni?o期间赤道西太平洋海温冷异常偏弱,印度洋偶极子偏强,导致印度半岛下沉运动减弱,FGOALS-g3中ENSO—印度降水负相关关系也依然偏弱。研究表明,耦合过程导致的气候态海温偏差通过改变环流和水汽输送,有效补偿了大气模式中印度半岛中部和中南半岛的降水湿偏差;在年际变率上,耦合模式由于考虑了海温—降水—云短波辐射的负反馈过程,能够减小大气模式模拟偏差的强度,但印太暖池区海温模拟偏差导致沃克环流下沉支偏西,使得印度半岛的降水响应出现更大的湿偏差。  相似文献   

8.
The focus of this paper is to assess the relative role of the north?Csouth and east?Cwest contrasts in atmospheric heating for the maintenance of the South Asian summer monsoon climatology. The juxtaposition of the Eurasian land mass and the Indian Ocean is responsible for the north?Csouth contrast, while the greater diabatic heating above the western Pacific compared to the one over the African and the tropical South Atlantic Ocean region introduces the east?Cwest gradient. With a series of idealized atmospheric general circulation model experiments, it is found that both contrasts contribute to the maintenance of the South Asian monsoon climatology, but their impact varies at regional scales. The surface atmospheric cyclone and precipitation over northern India are mainly due to the north?Csouth contrast. On the other hand, when the Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures are close to their climatological mean values, the low-level cyclone and consequent rainfall activity in the Bay of Bengal and southern India result from the east?Cwest gradient. The physical mechanism relays on the southern part of the upper-level South Asian monsoon high being forced by the east?Cwest diabatic heating contrast via Sverdrup balance. The east?Cwest heating difference controls also the strength of the Tropical Easterly Jet. Finally, the contribution of the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation to the interannual variability of the Indian monsoon is interpreted as the result of a longitudinal shift of one of the centers of diabatic heating contributing to the east?Cwest contrast.  相似文献   

9.
We investigate the future changes of Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) system projected by 20 climate models that participated in the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). A metrics for evaluation of the model’s performance on AAM precipitation climatology and variability is used to select a subset of seven best models. The CMIP5 models are more skillful than the CMIP3 models in terms of the AAM metrics. The future projections made by the selected multi-model mean suggest the following changes by the end of the 21st century. (1) The total AAM precipitation (as well as the land and oceanic components) will increase significantly (by 4.5 %/°C) mainly due to the increases in Indian summer monsoon (5.0 %/°C) and East Asian summer monsoon (6.4 %/°C) rainfall; the Australian summer monsoon rainfall will increase moderately by 2.6 %/°C. The “warm land-cool ocean” favors the entire AAM precipitation increase by generation of an east-west asymmetry in the sea level pressure field. On the other hand, the warm Northern Hemisphere-cool Southern Hemisphere induced hemispheric SLP difference favors the ASM but reduces the Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined effects explain the differences between the Asian and Australian monsoon changes. (2) The low-level tropical AAM circulation will weaken significantly (by 2.3 %/°C) due to atmospheric stabilization that overrides the effect of increasing moisture convergence. Different from the CMIP3 analysis, the EA subtropical summer monsoon circulation will increase by 4.4 %/°C. (3) The Asian monsoon domain over the land area will expand by about 10 %. (4) The spatial structures of the leading mode of interannual variation of AAM precipitation will not change appreciably but the ENSO-AAM relationship will be significantly enhanced.  相似文献   

10.
The impact of the simulated large-scale atmospheric circulation on the regional climate is examined using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as a regional climate model. The purpose is to understand the potential need for interior grid nudging for dynamical downscaling of global climate model (GCM) output for air quality applications under a changing climate. In this study we downscale the NCEP-Department of Energy Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Reanalysis using three continuous 20-year WRF simulations: one simulation without interior grid nudging and two using different interior grid nudging methods. The biases in 2-m temperature and precipitation for the simulation without interior grid nudging are unreasonably large with respect to the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) over the eastern half of the contiguous United States (CONUS) during the summer when air quality concerns are most relevant. This study examines how these differences arise from errors in predicting the large-scale atmospheric circulation. It is demonstrated that the Bermuda high, which strongly influences the regional climate for much of the eastern half of the CONUS during the summer, is poorly simulated without interior grid nudging. In particular, two summers when the Bermuda high was west (1993) and east (2003) of its climatological position are chosen to illustrate problems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies. For both summers, WRF without interior grid nudging fails to simulate the placement of the upper-level anticyclonic (1993) and cyclonic (2003) circulation anomalies. The displacement of the large-scale circulation impacts the lower atmosphere moisture transport and precipitable water, affecting the convective environment and precipitation. Using interior grid nudging improves the large-scale circulation aloft and moisture transport/precipitable water anomalies, thereby improving the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation. The results demonstrate that constraining the RCM to the large-scale features in the driving fields improves the overall accuracy of the simulated regional climate, and suggest that in the absence of such a constraint, the RCM will likely misrepresent important large-scale shifts in the atmospheric circulation under a future climate.  相似文献   

11.
Multiyear (1983?C2006) hindcast simulation of summer monsoon over South Asia has been carried out using the regional climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre (BCC_RegCM1.0). The regional climate model (hereafter BCC RCM) is nested into the global climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre BCC_CGCM1.0 (here after CGCM). The regional climate model is initialized on 01 May and integrated up to the end of the September for 24?years. Compared to the driving CGCM the BCC RCM reproduces reasonably well the intensity and magnitude of the large-scale features associated with the South Asia summer monsoon such as the upper level anticyclone at 200?hPa, the mid-tropospheric warming over the Tibetan plateau, the surface heat low and the 850?hPa moisture transport from ocean to the land. Both models, i.e., BCC RCM and the driving CGCM overestimates (underestimates) the 850?hPa southwesterly flow over the northern (southern) Arabian Sea. Moreover, both models overestimate the seasonal mean precipitation over much of the South Asia region compared to the observations. However, the precipitation biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations. Furthermore, both models simulate reasonably the interannual variability of the summer monsoon over India. The precipitation index simulated by BCC RCM shows significant correlation (0.62) with the observed one. The BCC RCM simulates reasonably well the spatial and temporal variation of the precipitation and surface air temperature compared to the driving CGCM. Further, the temperature biases are significantly reduced (1?C4°C) in the BCC RCM simulations. The simulated vertical structure of the atmosphere show biases above the four sub-regions, however, these biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations compared to the driving CGCM. Compared to the driving CGCM, the evolution processes of the onset of summer monsoon, e.g., the meridional temperature gradient and the vertical wind shear are well simulated by the BCC RCM. The 24-year simulations also show that with a little exception the BCC RCM is capable to reproduce the monsoon active and break phases and the intraseasonal precipitation variation over the Indian subcontinent.  相似文献   

12.
In this study, an ensemble of four multi-year climate simulations is performed with the regional climate model ALADIN to evaluate its ability to simulate the climate over North America in the CORDEX framework. The simulations differ in their driving fields (ERA-40 or ERA-Interim) and the nudging technique (with or without large-scale nudging). The validation of the simulated 2-m temperature and precipitation with observationally-based gridded data sets shows that ALADIN performs similarly to other regional climate models that are commonly used over North America. Large-scale nudging improves the temporal correlation of the atmospheric circulation between ALADIN and its driving field, and also reduces the warm and dry summer biases in central North America. The differences between the simulations driven with different reanalyses are small and are likely related to the regional climate model’s induced internal variability. In general, the impact of different driving fields on ALADIN is smaller than that of large-scale nudging. The analysis of the multi-year simulations over the prairie and the east taiga indicates that the ALADIN 2-m temperature and precipitation interannual variability is similar or larger than that observed. Finally, a comparison of the simulations with observations for the summer 1993 shows that ALADIN underestimates the flood in central North America mainly due to its systematic dry bias in this region. Overall, the results indicate that ALADIN can produce a valuable contribution to CORDEX over North America.  相似文献   

13.
To enable downscaling of seasonal prediction and climate change scenarios, long-term baseline regional climatologies which employ global model forcing are needed for South America. As a first step in this process, this work examines climatological integrations with a regional climate model using a continental scale domain nested in both reanalysis data and multiple realizations of an atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). The analysis presents an evaluation of the nested model simulated large scale circulation, mean annual cycle and interannual variability which is compared against observational estimates and also with the driving GCM for the Northeast, Amazon, Monsoon and Southeast regions of South America. Results indicate that the regional climate model simulates the annual cycle of precipitation well in the Northeast region and Monsoon regions; it exhibits a dry bias during winter (July–September) in the Southeast, and simulates a semi-annual cycle with a dry bias in summer (December–February) in the Amazon region. There is little difference in the annual cycle between the GCM and renalyses driven simulations, however, substantial differences are seen in the interannual variability. Despite the biases in the annual cycle, the regional model captures much of the interannual variability observed in the Northeast, Southeast and Amazon regions. In the Monsoon region, where remote influences are weak, the regional model improves upon the GCM, though neither show substantial predictability. We conclude that in regions where remote influences are strong and the global model performs well it is difficult for the regional model to improve the large scale climatological features, indeed the regional model may degrade the simulation. Where remote forcing is weak and local processes dominate, there is some potential for the regional model to add value. This, however, will require improvments in physical parameterizations for high resolution tropical simulations.  相似文献   

14.
We compare the ability of coupled global climate models from the phases 5 and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5 and CMIP6, respectively) in simulating the temperature and precipitation climatology and interannual variability over China for the period 1961–2005 and the climatological East Asian monsoon for the period1979–2005. All 92 models are able to simulate the geographical distribution of the above variables reasonably well.Compared with earlier CMIP5 models, current CMIP6 models have nationally weaker cold biases, a similar nationwide overestimation of precipitation and a weaker underestimation of the southeast–northwest precipitation gradient, a comparable overestimation of the spatial variability of the interannual variability, and a similar underestimation of the strength of winter monsoon over northern Asia. Pairwise comparison indicates that models have improved from CMIP5 to CMIP6 for climatological temperature and precipitation and winter monsoon but display little improvement for the interannual temperature and precipitation variability and summer monsoon. The ability of models relates to their horizontal resolutions in certain aspects. Both the multi-model arithmetic mean and median display similar skills and outperform most of the individual models in all considered aspects.  相似文献   

15.
ＭｏｄｅｌＳｔｕｄｙｏｎｔｈｅＩｎｔｅｒａｎｎｕａｌＶａｒｉａｂｉｌｉｔｙｏｆＡｓｉａｎＷｉｎｔｅｒＭｏｎｓｏｏｎａｎｄＩｔｓＩｎｆｌｕｅｎｃｅＪｉＬｉｒｅｎ（纪立人），ＳｕｎＳｈｕｑｉｎｇ（孙淑清）ＩｎｓｔｉｔｕｔｅｏｆＡｔｍｏｓｐｈｅｒｉｃＰｈｙ...  相似文献   

16.
The simulation of precipitation in a general circulation model relying on relaxed mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme is sensitive to cloud adjustment time scale (CATS). In this study, the frequency of the dominant intra-seasonal mode and interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) simulated by an atmospheric general circulation model is shown to be sensitive to the CATS. It has been shown that a longer CATS of about 5 h simulates the spatial distribution of the ISMR better. El Niño Southern Oscillation–ISMR relationship is also sensitive to CATS. The equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall and ISMR coupling is sensitive to CATS. Our study suggests that a careful choice of CATS is necessary for adequate simulation of spatial pattern as well as interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon precipitation.  相似文献   

17.
Results from a first-time employment of the WRF regional climate model to climatological simulations in Europe are presented. The ERA-40 reanalysis (resolution 1°) has been downscaled to a horizontal resolution of 30 and 10?km for the period of 1961?C1990. This model setup includes the whole North Atlantic in the 30?km domain and spectral nudging is used to keep the large scales consistent with the driving ERA-40 reanalysis. The model results are compared against an extensive observational network of surface variables in complex terrain in Norway. The comparison shows that the WRF model is able to add significant detail to the representation of precipitation and 2-m temperature of the ERA-40 reanalysis. Especially the geographical distribution, wet day frequency and extreme values of precipitation are highly improved due to the better representation of the orography. Refining the resolution from 30 to 10?km further increases the skill of the model, especially in case of precipitation. Our results indicate that the use of 10-km resolution is advantageous for producing regional future climate projections. Use of a large domain and spectral nudging seems to be useful in reproducing the extreme precipitation events due to the better resolved synoptic scale features over the North Atlantic, and also helps to reduce the large regional temperature biases over Norway. This study presents a high-resolution, high-quality climatological data set useful for reference climate impact studies.  相似文献   

18.
It is proposed that, land?Catmosphere interaction around the time of monsoon onset could modulate the first episode of climatological intraseasonal oscillation (CISO) and may generate significant ??internal?? interannual variation in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The regional climate model RegCM3 is used over Indian monsoon domain for 27?years of control simulation. In order to prove the hypothesis, another two sets of experiment are performed using two different boundary conditions (El Ni?o year and non-ENSO year). In each of these experiments, a single year of boundary conditions are used repeatedly year after year to generate ??internal?? interannual monsoon variability. Simulation of monsoon climate in the control model run is found to be in reasonably good agreement with observation. However, large rainfall bias is seen over Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. The interannual monsoon rainfall variability are of the same order in two experiments, which suggest that the external influences may not be important on the generation of ??internal?? monsoon rainfall variability. It is shown that, a dry (wet) pre-onset land-surface condition increases (decreases) rainfall in June which in turn leads to an anomalous increase (decrease) in seasonal (JJAS) rainfall. The phase and amplitude of CISO are modulated during May?CJune and beyond that the modulation of CISO is quite negligible. Though the pre-onset rainfall is unpredictable, significant modulation of the post-onset monsoon rainfall by it can be exploited to improve predictive skill within the monsoon season.  相似文献   

19.
While time-slice simulations with atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been used for many years to regionalize climate projections and/or assess their uncertainties, there is still no consensus about the method used to prescribe sea surface temperature (SST) in such experiments. In the present study, the response of the Indian summer monsoon to increasing amounts of greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols is compared between a reference climate scenario and three sets of time-slice experiments, consisting of parallel integrations for present-day and future climates. Different monthly mean SST boundary conditions have been tested in the present-day integrations: raw climatological SST derived from the reference scenario, observed climatological SST, and observed SST with interannual variability. For future climate, the SST forcing has been obtained by superimposing climatological monthly mean SST anomalies derived from the reference scenario onto the present-day SST boundary conditions. None of these sets of time-slice experiments is able to capture accurately the response of the Indian summer monsoon simulated in the transient scenario. This finding suggests that the ocean–atmosphere coupling is a fundamental feature of the climate system. Neglecting the SST feedback and variability at the intraseasonal to interannual time scales has a significant impact on the projected monsoon response to global warming. Adding interannual variability in the prescribed SST boundary conditions does not mitigate the problem, but can on the contrary reinforce the discrepancies between the forced and coupled experiments. The monsoon response is also shown to depend on the simulated control climate, and can therefore be sensitive to the use of observed rather than model-derived SSTs to drive the present-day atmospheric simulation, as well as to any approximation in the prescribed radiative forcing. While such results do not challenge the use of time-slice experiments for assessing uncertainties and understanding mechanisms in transient scenarios, they emphasize the need for high-resolution coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs for dynamical downscaling, or at least for high-resolution atmospheric GCMs coupled with a slab or a regional ocean model.  相似文献   

20.
气候平均状况下亚洲夏季风的季节内演变过程   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  
根据1979—1995年美国NOAA的向外长波辐射逐日资料,用功率谱分析和带通滤波方法,对气候平均状况下亚洲夏季风的季节内演变过程进行分析,归纳得到亚洲季风区各个子系统季节内变化的8个关键阶段。利用1979—1999年NCEP/NCAR的大气环流再分析资料及中国气象局降水资料CMAP,对每个关键阶段亚洲夏季风的环流和降水的时空演变特征进行分析,得到亚洲季风区环流和降水季节内变化的物理图像。研究表明,在不同的季节内演变阶段,亚洲夏季风各个子系统成员的环流系统的变化特征可以将亚洲夏季风系统的季节内演变过程较好地描述出来。  相似文献   

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