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1.
This research appraises how residential built environment growth influences coastal exposure and how this component of societal vulnerability contributes to tropical cyclone impact and disaster potential. Historical housing unit data and future demographic projections from a high-resolution, spatial allocation model illustrate that the area within 50 km of the US Atlantic and Gulf Coastlines has the greatest housing unit density of any physiographic region in the USA, with residential development in this region outpacing non-coastal areas. Tropical cyclone exposure for six at-risk metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) along the US Atlantic and Gulf Coasts are assessed. All six MSAs evaluated are distinct in their development character, yet all experienced significant growth from 1940 through the contemporary period; projections from the model under various socioeconomic pathways reveal that this growth is anticipated to continue during the twenty-first century. Using a worst-case scenario framework, the historical and future residential data for the six MSAs are intersected with synthetic hurricane wind swaths generated from contemporary landfalling events. The New York City MSA contains the greatest residential built environment exposure, but Miami is the most rapidly changing MSA and has the greatest potential for hurricane disaster occurrence based on the juxtaposition of climatological risk and exposure. A disaster potential metric illustrates that all six MSAs will experience significant increases in disaster probability during the twenty-first century. This analysis facilitates a detailed spatiotemporal assessment of US coastal region vulnerability, providing decision makers with information that may be used to evaluate the potential for tropical cyclone disasters, mitigate tropical cyclone hazard impacts, and build community resilience for these and other hazards in the face of environmental and societal change. 相似文献
2.
macroscale processes that perturb general groundwater chemistry and therefore mineral–water equilibria; and microscale interactions, where attached organisms locally perturb mineral–water equilibria, potentially releasing limiting trace nutrients
from the dissolving mineral.
In the contaminated unconfined glacio-fluvial aquifer near Bemidji, Minnesota, USA, carbonate chemistry is influenced primarily
at the macroscale. Under oxic conditions, respiration by native aerobic heterotrophs produces excess carbon dioxide that promotes
calcite and dolomite dissolution. Aerobic microorganisms do not colonize dolomite surfaces and few occur on calcite. Within
the anoxic groundwater, calcite overgrowths form on uncolonized calcite cleavage surfaces, possibly due to the consumption
of acidity by dissimilatory iron-reducing bacteria. As molecular oxygen concentration increases downgradient of the oil pool,
aerobes again dominate and residual hydrocarbons and ferrous iron are oxidized, resulting in macroscale carbonate-mineral
dissolution and iron precipitation.
Feldspars, in contrast, weather exclusively at the microscale near attached microorganisms, principally in the anoxic region
of the plume. Native organisms preferentially colonize feldspars that contain trace phosphorus as apatite inclusions, apparently
as a consequence of the low P concentration in the groundwater. These feldspars weather rapidly, whereas nearby feldspars
without trace P are uncolonized and unweathered. Feldspar dissolution is accompanied by the precipitation of secondary minerals,
sometimes on the bacterial cell wall itself.
These observations suggest a tightly linked biogeochemical system whereby microbial processes control mineral diagenesis at
many scales of interaction, and the mineralogy and mineral chemistry influence microbial ecology. Only the macroscale interaction,
however, is easily observable by standard geochemical methods, and documentation of the microscale interactions requires microscopic
examination of microorganisms on mineral surfaces and the locally intense diagenetic reactions that result.
Received, May 1999/Revised, October 1999/Accepted, October 1999 相似文献
3.
This paper studies the long-run economic effects of severe weather on regional economies. A catastrophic event, such as a
hurricane, will have an effect on both the directly impacted region and adjacent regions. With dramatically increasing damage
from catastrophic weather events over the past few decades, comprehensive assessment of the long-run economic impact of natural
disasters across the broader region becomes more important than ever for planning for post-disaster recovery. We estimate
the long-run effect of Hurricane Katrina on the unemployment rate of Houston, TX by employing time-series and fixed-effect
models. Using Dallas as a control, we find that Katrina is associated with a higher long-run unemployment rate in Houston
than would otherwise have been expected. This implies that the hurricane-generated adverse relative effects on Houston. Our
findings suggest that areas that are geographically proximate to the directly impacted region can sustain lasting negative
economic consequences. 相似文献
4.
Characteristics of high impact weather and meteorological disaster in Shanghai,China 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
This paper discusses the characteristics of high-impact weather events based on available data during 1960–2009, including
the frequency and extreme value of rainstorm, typhoon, thunderstorm, strong wind, tornado, fog, haze and hot days in Shanghai,
China. The frequency and spatial distribution of meteorological disasters and their impacts on both human and property during
1984–2009 are also discussed. Examination of the frequency indicates a decreasing trend in the occurrence of typhoon, thunderstorm,
strong wind, tornado and fog, and an increasing trend in the occurrence of rainstorm, haze and hot days. The number of casualties
caused by meteorological disasters appears to show a slight decreasing trend while the value of direct economic loss is increasing
slightly during 1984–2009, and the number of collapsed or damaged buildings and the area of affected crops have no significant
trend in Shanghai. These results can be attributed to the great efforts for prevention and mitigation of meteorological disasters
made by Shanghai government in recent 60 years. With global climate change, urbanization and rapid economic development, Shanghai
has become more vulnerable to high-impact weather and meteorological disaster, especially precipitation extreme, summer high
temperature, haze and typhoon, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of natural disasters are quite useful and
necessary for local government and the public in the future. 相似文献
5.
Integrated risk assessment of multi-hazards in China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Maps of population exposure, vulnerability and risk to natural hazards are useful tools for designing and implementing disaster risk mitigation programs in China. The ranking of provinces by relative risk to natural hazards would provide a metric for prioritizing risk management strategies. Using provinces as our study unit, from the perspectives of hazard exposure, susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity, this study first constructed China’s disaster risk index for five types of major natural hazards: earthquakes, floods, droughts, low temperatures/snow and gale/hail. Then, the relative risk level at the provincial scale in China was assessed. Finally, the hotspots with the highest hazard exposure, vulnerability and risk were identified. The results showed that high exposure was a significant risk driver in China, whereas high vulnerability, especially social vulnerability, amplified the risk levels. Similar to the population exposure to disasters, the relative risk levels in the southwestern, central and northeastern regions of China were significantly higher than those in the eastern, northern and western regions. The high-risk regions or hotspots of multi-hazards were concentrated in southern China (less-developed regions), while the low-risk regions were mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas (well-developed regions). Furthermore, a nonlinear relationship existed between the disaster risk level and poverty incidence as well as per capita GDP, demonstrating that disaster losses in middle-income areas are likely to increase if economic policies are not modified to account for the rising disaster risk. These findings further indicated that research on disaster risk should focus not only on hazards and exposure but also on the vulnerability to natural disasters. Thus, reducing vulnerability and population exposure to natural hazards would be an effective measure in mitigating the disaster risk at hotspots in China. 相似文献
6.
Damage to buildings and structures due to recent devastating wind hazards in East Asia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Extreme wind events such as typhoons and tornadoes can cause devastating damage to structures and huge losses to human societies. This paper introduces recent devastating wind-related disasters in East Asia, including disasters in Japan, the Philippines and China, from 2013 to 2016. In particular, it describes several post-disaster investigations including those on Typhoon Haiyan in 2013 in the Philippines; typhoon Mujigae and two typhoon-associated tornadoes in October, 2015, in Guangdong, China; and a tornado in June, 2016 in Yancheng, China. Meteorological features, damage details and failure mechanisms of structures, factors related to damage generation and spread, scales to evaluate storms, estimations of tornado wind speeds and so on are discussed, with the aim of mitigating future wind-related disasters and to create safer and sustainable societies. Lessons derived from aerodynamic effects, cladding and component performances, debris impacts, building arrangements, fatigue effects, construction methods, etc. together with suggestions for wind-resistant design of buildings are given. 相似文献
7.
This article examines the spatial dependence among housing losses due to tornadoes using data from the May 1999 Oklahoma City
tornado. In order to examine the existence of spatial dependence and its impacts on the damage analysis, we compare an estimation
based on a traditional ordinary least square model with the general spatial model. The results show that housing damage in
this disaster area is highly correlated. Monetary losses not only depend on the tornado that struck residences, but are related
to the damage magnitudes of neighboring houses. Average losses as well as the loss ratio increase with the Fujita Scale damage
rating. We conclude that the general spatial model provides unbiased estimates compared to the ordinary least square model.
In order to construct appropriate home insurance policies for tornado disasters or to improve the damage resistance capabilities
of houses, it is necessary for insurance underwriters and builders to consider spatial correlation of tornado damage.
相似文献
| Yongsheng Wang (Corresponding author)Email: |
8.
Exploring probable reasons for record fatalities: the case of 2011 Joplin, Missouri, Tornado 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
On the evening of 22 May 2011, an EF-5 tornado tore a path six miles long across Joplin, Missouri, USA, killing 162 people as it passed through the heart of the city. This tornado stands as the deadliest single tornado to hit the United States since modern recordkeeping began in 1950, surpassing the tornado of 8 June 1953 that claimed 116 lives in Flint, Michigan. The record number of deaths caused by the single tornado in Joplin was far higher than the average annual number of US tornado deaths over the last three decades. This study explores the reasons for the high number of fatalities caused by the 2011 Joplin tornado. Questionnaire surveys administered among tornado survivors and informal discussions with emergency management personnel and others suggest that five reasons are associated with the high number of tornado fatalities experienced in Joplin: (1) the sheer magnitude of this event; (2) its path through commercial and densely populated residential areas; (3) the relatively large size of damage area; (4) the physical characteristics of affected homes in Joplin; and (5) the fact that some residents ignored tornado warnings. Several recommendations are offered, the implementation of which should reduce future tornado fatalities not only in Joplin, but elsewhere in the United States. 相似文献
9.
Cameron C. Lee 《Natural Hazards》2012,62(2):325-343
Previous research into the impacts of climate change on severe mid-latitude weather has been limited by the spatial resolution of many important variables in global climate model output. By utilizing synoptic climatological methods, however, this research takes an entirely different approach. Using a six-step process that includes principal components analysis, cluster analysis, and discriminant function analysis, this study first creates a continental-scale map pattern classification at three levels of the atmosphere, from geopotential height and temperature fields. These patterns are then associated to historic F2 and stronger United States?? tornado days using binary logistic regression. Using output data from two GCMs, spanning five different model emissions scenarios, this synoptic climatology of tornadoes is then utilized in order to project the changes in the frequency and seasonality of tornadic environments due to a changing climate. Results indicate that F2 and stronger US tornado days will increase anywhere from 3.8 to 12.7% by the 2090s. The majority of this increase is likely to be manifested in the earlier part of the tornado season. In addition to the shift in seasonality, a broadening of the peak tornado season is also noticed under some scenarios. Geographically, portions of the Northern and Central Plains, the High Plains, the Lower Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic States, and the Southeast are projected to experience an increase in tornado days under some future scenarios. The Upper Great Lakes states and the Southern Plains are projected to experience a decrease in tornado days. 相似文献
10.
Conservation equations for mass, momentum, energy, and entropy are formulated for the phases and interfaces of a three‐phase system consisting of a solid and two immiscible fluids. The microscale equations are averaged to the macroscale by integration over a representative elementary volume. Thermodynamic statements for each of the phases and interface entities are also formulated at the microscale and then averaged to the macroscale. This departure from most uses of thermodynamics in macroscale analysis ensures consistency between models and parameters at the two scales. The expressions for the macroscale rates of change of internal energy are obtained by differentiating the derived forms for energy and making use of averaging theorems. These thermodynamic expressions, along with the conservation equations, serve as constraints on the entropy inequality. A linearization of the resulting equations is employed to investigate the theoretical origins of the Biot coefficient that relates the hydrostatic part of the total stress tensor to the normal force applied at the solid surface by the pore fluids. The results here are placed in the context of other formulations and expressions that appear in the literature. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
Navid Attary John W. van de Lindt Hussam Mahmoud Steve Smith Christopher M. Navarro Yong Wook Kim Jong Sung Lee 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(3):1295-1316
Resiliency of communities prone to natural hazards can be enhanced through the use of risk-informed decision-making tools. These tools can provide community decision makers key information, thereby providing them the ability to consider an array of mitigation and/or recovery strategies. The Center for Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning, headquartered at Colorado State University in Fort Collins, Colorado, developed an Interdependent Networked Community Resilience (IN-CORE) computational environment. The purpose of developing this computational environment is to build a decision-support system, for professional risk planners and emergency responders, but even more focused on allowing researchers to explore community resilience science. The eventual goal was being to integrate a broad range of scientific, engineering and observational data to produce a detailed assessment of the potential impact of natural and man-made hazards for risk mitigation, planning and recovery purposes. The developing computational environment will be capable of simulating the effects from different natural hazards on the physical and socioeconomic sectors of a community, accounting for interdependencies between the sectors. However, in order to validate this computational tool, hindcasting of a real event was deemed necessary. Therefore, in this study, the community of Joplin, Missouri in the USA, which was hit by an EF-5 tornado on May 22, 2011, is modeled in the IN-CORE v1.0 computational environment. An explanation of the algorithm used within IN-CORE is also provided. This tornado was the costliest and deadliest single tornado in the USA in the last half century. Using IN-CORE, by uploading a detailed topological dataset of the community and the estimated tornado path combined with recently developed physics-based tornado fragilities, the damage caused by the tornado to all buildings in the city of Joplin was estimated. The results were compared with the damage reported from field studies following the event. This damage assessment was done using three hypothetical idealized tornado scenarios, and results show very good correlation with observed damage which will provide useful information to decision makers for community resilience planning. 相似文献
12.
Using the tornado climatology and population statistics for Canada, a method of ranking population centres is proposed. Using as a basis a list of cities and census divisions ranked by population-weighted tornado incidence (a measure of risk), a first estimate is made of where to site 22 Doppler radars. It is estimated that this network will provide protection to about 82% of Canada's population. 相似文献
13.
This study examines the effect of severe wind events on the mean and variance of housing price indices of six metropolitan
statistical areas (MSA) that are vulnerable to hurricanes and/or tornadoes. The research focuses on three areas that experienced
significant tornado activity (Fort Worth-Arlington, Nashville, and Oklahoma City) and three hurricane-prone areas (Corpus
Christi, Miami, and Wilmington, NC). An econometric time series model that captures the housing market responses to severe
windstorms is utilized. The model estimates changes in the local housing price index (HPI) as a function of several control
variables as well as dichotomous variables that correspond to the tornadoes and hurricanes. As expected, the statistical findings
indicate an immediate but short-lived decline in housing prices following a tornado or hurricane. Somewhat surprising is the
result that the impact on the housing market is remarkably consistent whether the wind event was a hurricane or a tornado.
Hurricanes and tornadoes are vastly different in terms of the point probabilities of a hit, the scope of the affected area
and the lead time that supports last minute preparation to mitigate damage. It appears that the market response to destruction
of real property does not distinguish between the types of wind event that produced the damage to the region. Results suggest
that windstorms result in an immediate one-half to two percent reduction in total MSA housing value. This corresponds to a
range of $34 million to $580 million in lost housing value. Estimates indicate some differences in how long market values
continue to decline in the periods following the wind event; however, most of the decline occurs within four quarters after
the windstorm. These differences can be attributed to the particular time series characteristics of the specific housing markets
and their respective housing price indices. The market serves the purpose of integrating and normalizing the losses. In so
doing the market provides a metric— a method for calibrating and comparing structural damage caused by different phenomenon.
相似文献
| Yongsheng WangEmail: |
14.
Interparticle forces and displacements in granular materials 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In a micromechanics framework, the main issue is the relationship between the microscale variables and the macroscale variables. These variables are used to describe either the statics or kinematics of the system. The relationships can be classified in two ways, namely, the “averaging” relationships and the “tracking” relationships. The averaging relationships express the macroscale variable as an averaging of the microscale variables; for example, the stress as a function of contact forces. The “tracking” relationships express the microscale variable as a function of the macroscale variables; for example, the contact force at a given orientation as a function of the stress. Based on fundamental premises, a unique averaging relationship exists for either the statics or the kinematics case. However, it is generally impossible to have a unique expression of the “tracking” relationship because they are generally derived with certain assumptions. In this paper, we will present expressions of the “tracking” based on three different approaches, namely, (1) energy conservation principle, (2) representation theory, and (3) indirect scheme. The assumptions used in each approach are discussed. The results are compared among the three approaches as well as that obtained from the Discrete Element Method (DEM). 相似文献
15.
Risk assessment of rainstorm and flood disasters in China between 2004 and 2009 based on gray fixed weight cluster analysis 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Rainstorm and flood disasters frequently occur in China, causing heavy losses for people’s lives and property and reducing the capability of sustainable development of the national and local economy. In this study, the risks of the rainstorm and flood disasters are assessed for the Chinese mainland, excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan and also employ the historical data of seven indicators, including the affected area of crops, the affected population, the direct economic loss, and etc., from 2004 to 2009. Based on the large 1,302 historical sample data, the impact of rainstorm and flood disasters were analyzed using the methodology of gray fixed weight cluster analysis according to disaster losses, which were divided into the three gray classes of high, medium, and low. The regional differences of the risk assessment of the rainstorm and flood disasters are discussed, and the dynamical risk zoning map is conducted. The results show a consistent conclusion with the actual losses of rainstorm and flood disasters over each administrative district, which can provide more scientific evidence for the relevant departments of disaster prevention and mitigation. 相似文献
16.
Vincenzo Bollettino Tilly Alcayna-Stevens Manasi Sharma Philip Dy Phuong Pham Patrick Vinck 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2011
The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness. 相似文献
17.
The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness. 相似文献
18.
The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness. 相似文献
19.
Vincenzo Bollettino Tilly Alcayna-Stevens Manasi Sharma Philip Dy Phuong Pham Patrick Vinck 《Chemie der Erde / Geochemistry》2010
The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness. 相似文献
20.
The Philippines is highly susceptible to both geophysical and climate-related disasters. This article explores Filipinos knowledge and perception of climate change and their association with what action Filipinos take to prepare for rapid onset natural hazards such as typhoons. Data for this study were collected from a nationally representative random survey of 5,184 adults conducted between March and April of 2017. Filipinos self-report relatively low levels of knowledge of climate change and cited increased temperatures, shifts in seasons, and heavier rains as the most likely consequences. Levels of disaster preparedness in the Philippines differ widely by region. Although most Filipinos perceive that natural hazards are a risk to them, only a third of Filipinos undertake measures to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who perceive climate-related changes directly impacting their households report taking greater action to prepare for disasters. Filipinos who believe they have been directly impacted by climate-related changes are also more likely to prepare for disasters, take planning actions, and undertake material actions to prepare, such as dwelling improvements. Other factors associated with disaster preparedness include gender, membership in an association, wealth, risk perception, and prior exposure to and losses due to disasters. The findings imply that, while posing different challenges and requiring different responses, adaptation to climate change and disaster preparedness are inherently associated and potentially mutually reinforcing. Policies and programs would arguably benefit from a more unified intervention framework that links climate change adaptation and disaster preparedness. 相似文献