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1.
The current generation of hydrological models has been widely criticized for their inability to adequately simulate hydrological processes. In this study, we evaluate competing model representations of hydrological processes with respect to their capability to simulate observed processes in the Mahurangi River basin in Northland, New Zealand. In the first part of this two‐part series, the precipitation, soil moisture, and flow data in the Mahurangi were used to estimate the dominant hydrological processes and explore several options for their suitable mathematical representation. In this paper, diagnostic tests are applied to gain several insights for model selection. The analysis highlights dominant hydrological processes (e.g. the importance of vertical drainage and baseflow compared to sub‐surface stormflow), provides guidance for the choice of modelling approaches (e.g. implicitly representing sub‐grid heterogeneity in soils), and helps infer appropriate values for model parameters. The approach used in this paper demonstrates the benefits of flexible model structures in the context of hypothesis testing, in particular, supporting a more systematic exploration of current ambiguities in hydrological process representation. The challenge for the hydrological community is to make better use of the available data, not only to estimate parameter values but also to diagnostically identify more scientifically defensible model structures. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1065-1091
Abstract

In the last two decades, several researchers have claimed to have discovered low-dimensional determinism in hydrological processes, such as rainfall and runoff, using methods of chaotic analysis. However, such results have been criticized by others. In an attempt to offer additional insights into this discussion, it is shown here that, in some cases, merely the careful application of concepts of dynamical systems, without doing any calculation, provides strong indications that hydrological processes cannot be (low-dimensional) deterministic chaoti. Furthermore, it is shown that specific peculiarities of hydrological processes on fine time scales, such as asymmetric, J-shaped distribution functions, intermittency, and high autocorrelations, are synergistic factors that can lead to misleading conclusions regarding the presence of (low-dimensional) deterministic chaos. In addition, the recovery of a hypothetical attractor from a time series is put as a statistical estimation problem whose study allows, among others, quantification of the required sample size; this appears to be so huge that it prohibits any accurate estimation, even with the largest available hydrological records. All these arguments are demonstrated using appropriately synthesized theoretical examples. Finally, in light of the theoretical analyses and arguments, typical real-world hydrometeorological time series, such as relative humidity, rainfall, and runoff, are explored and none of them is found to indicate the presence of chaos.  相似文献   

3.
Hydrological scientists develop perceptual models of the catchments they study, using field measurements and observations to build an understanding of the dominant processes controlling the hydrological response. However, conceptual and numerical models used to simulate catchment behaviour often fail to take advantage of this knowledge. It is common instead to use a pre‐defined model structure which can only be fitted to the catchment via parameter calibration. In this article, we suggest an alternative approach where different sources of field data are used to build a synthesis of dominant hydrological processes and hence provide recommendations for representing those processes in a time‐stepping simulation model. Using analysis of precipitation, flow and soil moisture data, recommendations are made for a comprehensive set of modelling decisions, including Evapotranspiration (ET) parameterization, vertical drainage threshold and behaviour, depth and water holding capacity of the active soil zone, unsaturated and saturated zone model architecture and deep groundwater flow behaviour. The second article in this two‐part series implements those recommendations and tests the capability of different model sub‐components to represent the observed hydrological processes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
The abrupt changes in the streamflow and sediment load at nine hydrological stations of the Pearl River basin were systematically analysed by using the simple two‐phase linear regression scheme and the coherency analysis technique. Possible underlying causes were also discussed. Our study results indicated that abrupt changes in the streamflow occurred mainly in the early 1990s. The change points were followed by significant decreasing streamflow. Multiscale abrupt behaviour of the sediment load classified the hydrological stations into two groups: (1) Xiaolongtan, Nanning and Liuzhou; and (2) Qianjiang, Dahuangjiangkou, Wuzhou, Gaoyao, Shijiao and Boluo. The grouped categories implied obvious influences of water reservoirs on the hydrological processes of the Pearl River. On the basis of analysis of the locations and the construction time of the water reservoirs, and also the time when the change points occurred, we figured out different ways the water reservoirs impacted the hydrological processes within the Pearl River basin. As for the hydrological variation along the mainstream of the Pearl River, the water reservoirs have considerable influences on both the streamflow and sediment load variations; however, more influences seemed to be exerted on the sediment load transport. In the North River, the hydrological processes seemed to be influenced mainly by climate changes. In the East River, the hydrological variations tended to be impacted by the water reservoirs. The study results also indicated no fixed modes when we address the influences of water reservoirs on hydrological processes. Drainage area and regulation behaviour of the water reservoirs should be taken into account. The results of this study will be of considerable importance for the effective water resources management of the Pearl River basin under the changing environment. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
This paper presents a visually enhanced evaluation of the spatio-temporal patterns of the dam-induced hydrologic alteration in the middle and upper East River, south China over 1952–2002, using the range of variability approach (RVA) and visualization package XmdvTool. The impacts of climate variability on hydrological processes have been removed for wet and dry periods, respectively, so that we focus on the impacts of human activities (i.e., dam construction). The results indicate that: (1) along the East River, dams have greatly altered the natural flow regime, range condition and spatial variability; (2) six most remarkable indicators of hydrologic alteration induced by dam-construction are rise rate (1.16), 3-day maximum (0.91), low pulse duration (0.88), January (0.80), July (0.80) and February (0.79) mean flow of the East River during 1952–2002; and (3) spatiotemporal hydrologic alterations are different among three stations along Easter River. Under the influence of dam construction in the upstream, the degree of hydrologic changes from Lingxia, Heyuan to Longchuan station increases. This study reveals that visualization techniques for high-dimensional hydrological datasets together with RVA are beneficial for detecting spatio-temporal hydrologic changes.  相似文献   

6.
In this study, we investigated rainfall, run‐off, and sediment transport dynamics (414 run‐off events and 231 events with sediment information) of a humid mountain badland area—the Araguás catchment (Central Pyrenees, Spain)—from October 2005 to September 2016. Use of this long‐term database allows characterization of the hydrological response, which consist of low‐magnitude/high‐frequency events and high‐magnitude/low‐frequency events, and identification of seasonal dynamics and rainfall‐run‐off thresholds. Our results indicate that the Araguás catchment, similarly to other humid badlands, had high hydrological responsiveness (mean annual run‐off coefficient: 0.52), a non‐linear relationship of rainfall with run‐off (common in Mediterranean environments), and seasonal hydrological and sedimentological dynamics. We created and validated a multivariate regression model to characterize the hydrological variables (stormflow and peak discharge) and sedimentological variables (mean and maximum suspended sediment concentrations and total suspended sediment load). In summer and at the beginning of autumn, the response was mainly related to rainfall intensity, suggesting a predomination of Hortonian flows. In contrast, in spring and winter, the responses were mainly related to the antecedent conditions (previous rainfall and baseflow), suggesting the occurrence of saturated excess flow processes, and the contribution of neighbouring vegetated areas. The multivariate analysis also showed that total sediment load is better predicted by a multivariate regression model that integrates pre‐event, rainfall, and run‐off variables. In general, our models provided more accurate predictions of small‐magnitude/high‐frequency events than high‐magnitude/low‐frequency events. This study highlights the high inter‐ and intra‐annual variability response in humid badland areas and that long‐term records are needed to reduce the uncertainty of hydrological and sedimentological responses in Mediterranean badland areas.  相似文献   

7.
Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation and lag-one autocorrelation. In the first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological processes and the state scaling behaviour were investigated. This second part of the study is devoted to joint distributional properties of hydrological processes. Specifically, it investigates the time dependence structure that may result from the ME principle and shows that the time scaling behaviour (or the Hurst phenomenon) may be obtained by this principle under the additional general condition that all time scales are of equal importance for the application of the ME principle. The omnipresence of the time scaling behaviour in numerous long hydrological time series examined in the literature (one of which is used here as an example), validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes.  相似文献   

8.
Abstract

All the field “experiments” indicated in the sub-title above include the hydrological cycle in some or all of its aspects and thus require the use of “hydrological sciences”. Is hydrology actually included in them? This depends on the definition of hydrology used. The paper briefly describes the different definitions of “hydrology” in the context of the scientific objectives and concepts of these experiments and related scientific activities. It further evaluates the role actually assigned to hydrologists in past cross-disciplinary endeavours to conduct “field experiments” and goes on to propose adjustments to this role in the GEWEX Continental-scale International Project (GCIP). Related activities are analysed in some detail in this framework and proposals are presented for increased inter-disciplinary communication.  相似文献   

9.
This paper analyses the spatial and temporal variability of the hydrological response in a small Mediterranean catchment (Cal Rodó). The first part of the analysis focuses on the rainfall–runoff relationship at seasonal and monthly scale, using an 8‐year data set. Then, using storm‐flow volume and coefficient, the temporal variability of the rainfall–runoff relationship and its relationship with several hydrological variables are analysed at the event scale from hydrographs observed over a 3‐year period. Finally, the spatial non‐linearity of the hydrological response is examined by comparing the Cal Rodó hydrological response with the Can Vila sub‐catchment response at the event scale. Results show that, on a seasonal and monthly scale, there is no simple relationship between rainfall and runoff depths, and that evapotranspiration is a factor that introduced some non‐linearity in the rainfall–runoff relationship. The analysis of monthly values also reveals the existence of a threshold in the relationship between rainfall and runoff depths, denoting a more contrasted hydrological response than the one usually observed in humid catchments. At the event scale, the storm‐flow coefficient has a clear seasonal pattern with an alternance between a wet period, when the catchment is hydrologically responsive, and a dry summer period, when the catchment is much less reactive to any rainfall. The relationship between the storm‐flow coefficient and rainfall depth, rainfall maximum intensity and base‐flow shows that observed correlations are the same as those observed for humid conditions, even if correlation coefficients are notably lower. Comparison with the Can Vila sub‐catchment highlights the spatial heterogeneity of the rainfall‐runoff relationship at the small catchment scale. Although interpretation in terms of runoff processes remains delicate, heterogeneities between the two catchments seem to be related to changes in the ratio between infiltration excess and saturation processes in runoff formation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Understanding how explicit consideration of topographic information influences hydrological model performance and upscaling in glacier dominated catchments remains underexplored. In this study, the Urumqi glacier no. 1 catchment in northwest China, with 52% of the area covered by glaciers, was selected as study site. A conceptual glacier‐hydrological model was developed and tested to systematically, simultaneously, and robustly reproduce the hydrograph, separate the discharge into contributions from glacier and nonglacier parts of the catchment, and establish estimates of the annual glacier mass balance, the annual equilibrium line altitude, and the daily catchment snow water equivalent. This was done by extending and adapting a recently proposed landscape‐based semidistributed conceptual hydrological model (FLEX‐Topo) to represent glacier and snowmelt processes. The adapted model, FLEXG, allows to explicitly account for the influence of topography, that is, elevation and aspect, on the distribution of temperature and precipitation and thus on melt dynamics. It is shown that the model can not only reproduce long‐term runoff observations but also variations in glacier and snow cover. Furthermore, FLEXG was successfully transferred and up‐scaled to a larger catchment exclusively by adjusting the areal proportions of elevation and aspect without the need for further calibration. This underlines the value of topographic information to meaningfully represent the dominant hydrological processes in the region and is further exacerbated by comparing the model to a model formulation that does not account for differences in aspect (FLEXG,nA) and which, in spite of satisfactorily reproducing the observed hydrograph, does not capture the influence of spatial variability of snow and ice, which as a consequence reduces model transferability. This highlights the importance of accounting for topography and landscape heterogeneity in conceptual hydrological models in mountainous and snow‐, and glacier‐dominated regions.  相似文献   

11.
We investigate numerically apparent multi‐fractal behavior of samples from synthetically generated processes subordinated to truncated fractional Brownian motion (tfBm) on finite domains. We are motivated by the recognition that many earth and environmental (including hydrological) variables appear to be self‐affine (monofractal) or multifractal with Gaussian or heavy‐tailed distributions. The literature considers self‐affine and multifractal types of scaling to be fundamentally different, the first arising from additive and the second from multiplicative random fields or processes. It has been demonstrated theoretically by one of us that square or absolute increments of samples from Gaussian/Lévy processes subordinated to tfBm exhibit apparent/spurious multifractality at intermediate ranges of separation lags, with breakdown in power‐law scaling at small and large lags as is commonly exhibited by real data. A preliminary numerical demonstration of apparent multifractality by the same author was limited to Gaussian fields having nearest neighbor autocorrelations and led to rather noisy results. Here, we adopt a new generation scheme that allows us to investigate apparent multifractal behaviors of samples taken from a broad range of processes including Gaussian with and without symmetric Lévy and log‐normal (as well as potentially other) subordinators. Our results shed new light on the nature of apparent multifractality, which has wide implications vis‐a‐vis the scaling of many hydrological as well as other earth and environmental variables. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract

Rainfall-runoff models are used to describe the hydrological behaviour of a river catchment. Many different models exist to simulate the physical processes of the relationship between precipitation and runoff. Some of them are based on simple and easy-to-handle concepts, others on highly sophisticated physical and mathematical approaches that require extreme effort in data input and handling. Recently, mathematical methods using linguistic variables, rather than conventional numerical variables applied extensively in other disciplines, are encroaching in hydrological studies. Among these is the application of a fuzzy rule-based modelling. In this paper an attempt was made to develop fuzzy rule-based routines to simulate the different processes involved in the generation of runoff from precipitation. These routines were implemented within a conceptual, modular, and semi-distributed model-the HBV model. The investigation involved determining which modules of this model could be replaced by the new approach and the necessary input data were identified. A fuzzy rule-based routine was then developed for each of the modules selected, and application and validation of the model was done on a rainfall-runoff analysis of the Neckar River catchment, in southwest Germany.  相似文献   

13.
Land‐cover/climate changes and their impacts on hydrological processes are of widespread concern and a great challenge to researchers and policy makers. Kejie Watershed in the Salween River Basin in Yunnan, south‐west China, has been reforested extensively during the past two decades. In terms of climate change, there has been a marked increase in temperature. The impact of these changes on hydrological processes required investigation: hence, this paper assesses aspects of changes in land cover and climate. The response of hydrological processes to land‐cover/climate changes was examined using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and impacts of single factor, land‐use/climate change on hydrological processes were differentiated. Land‐cover maps revealed extensive reforestation at the expense of grassland, cropland, and barren land. A significant monotonic trend and noticeable changes had occurred in annual temperature over the long term. Long‐term changes in annual rainfall and streamflow were weak; and changes in monthly rainfall (May, June, July, and September) were apparent. Hydrological simulations showed that the impact of climate change on surface water, baseflow, and streamflow was offset by the impact of land‐cover change. Seasonal variation in streamflow was influenced by seasonal variation in rainfall. The earlier onset of monsoon and the variability of rainfall resulted in extreme monthly streamflow. Land‐cover change played a dominant role in mean annual values; seasonal variation in surface water and streamflow was influenced mainly by seasonal variation in rainfall; and land‐cover change played a regulating role in this. Surface water is more sensitive to land‐cover change and climate change: an increase in surface water in September and May due to increased rainfall was offset by a decrease in surface water due to land‐cover change. A decrease in baseflow caused by changes in rainfall and temperature was offset by an increase in baseflow due to land‐cover change. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Xing Fang  John W. Pomeroy 《水文研究》2016,30(16):2754-2772
A devastating flood struck Southern Alberta in late June 2013, with much of its streamflow generation in the Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains, west of Calgary. To better understand streamflow generation processes and their sensitivity to initial conditions, a physically based hydrological model was developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to simulate the flood for the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km2). The modular model includes major cold and warm season hydrological processes including snow redistribution, sublimation, melt, runoff over frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, subsurface runoff on hillslopes, groundwater recharge and discharge and streamflow routing. Uncalibrated simulations were conducted for eight hydrological years and generally matched streamflow observations well, with a NRMSD of 52%, small model bias (?3%) and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71. The model was then used to diagnose the responses of hydrological processes in 2013 flood from different ecozones in Marmot Creek: alpine, treeline, montane forest and large and small forest clearings to better understand spatial variations in the flood runoff generation mechanisms. To examine the sensitivity to antecedent conditions, ‘virtual’ flood simulations were conducted using a week (17 to 24 June 2013) of flood meteorology imposed on the meteorology of the same period in other years (2005 to 2012), or switched with the meteorology of one week in different months (May to July) of 2013. Sensitivity to changing precipitation and land cover was assessed by varying the precipitation amount during the flood and forest cover and soil storage capacity in forest ecozone. The results show that runoff efficiency increases rapidly with antecedent snowpack and soil moisture storage with the highest runoff response to rainfall from locations in the basin where there are recently melted or actively melting snowpacks and resulting high soil moisture or frozen soils. The impact of forest canopy on flooding is negligible, but flood peak doubles if forest canopy removal is accompanied by 50% reduction in water storage capacity in the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Many novel techniques for reconstructing rainfall‐runoff processes require hydrometeorologic and geomorphologic information for modelling. However, certain information is not always measurable. In this paper, we employ a special recurrent neural network to reconstruct the rainfall‐runoff process by using collected rainfall data. In addition, we propose an indirect system identification to overcome the drawback of a traditional, time‐consuming trial‐and‐error search. The indirect system identification is an efficient method to recognize the structure of a recurrent neural network. The unit hydrograph can be derived directly from the weights of the network due to a state‐space form embedded in the recurrent neural network. This improves the link between the weights of the network and the physical concepts that most neural networks fail to connect. The case studies of 41 events from 1966 to 1997 have been implemented in Taiwan's Wu‐Tu watershed, where the runoff path‐lines are short and steep. Two recurrent neural networks and one state‐space model are utilized to simulate the rainfall‐runoff processes for comparison. The results are validated by four criteria: coefficient of efficiency; peak discharge error; time to peak arrival error; total discharge volume error. The resulting data from the recurrent neural network reveal that the neural network proposed herein is appropriate for hydrological systems. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Urban stormwater is a major cause of urban flooding and natural water pollution. It is therefore important to assess any hydrologic trends in urban catchments for stormwater management and planning. This study addresses urban hydrological trend analysis by examining trends in variables that characterize hydrological processes. The original and modified Mann‐Kendall methods are applied to trend detection in two French catchments, that is, Chassieu and La Lechere, based on approximately 1 decade of data from local monitoring programs. In both catchments, no trend is found in the major hydrological process driver (i.e., rainfall variables), whereas increasing trends are detected in runoff flow rates. As a consequence, the runoff coefficients tend to increase during the study period, probably due to growing imperviousness with the local urbanization process. In addition, conceptual urban rainfall‐runoff model parameters, which are identified via model calibration with an event based approach, are examined. Trend detection results indicate that there is no trend in the time of concentration in Chassieu, whereas a decreasing trend is present in La Lechere, which, however, needs to be validated with additional data. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the original Mann‐Kendall method is not sensitive to a few noisy values in the data series.  相似文献   

17.
Abstract

The well-established physical and mathematical principle of maximum entropy (ME), is used to explain the distributional and autocorrelation properties of hydrological processes, including the scaling behaviour both in state and in time. In this context, maximum entropy is interpreted as maximum uncertainty. The conditions used for the maximization of entropy are as simple as possible, i.e. that hydrological processes are non-negative with specified coefficients of variation (CV) and lag one autocorrelation. In this first part of the study, the marginal distributional properties of hydrological variables and the state scaling behaviour are investigated. Application of the ME principle under these very simple conditions results in the truncated normal distribution for small values of CV and in a nonexponential type (Pareto) distribution for high values of CV. In addition, the normal and the exponential distributions appear as limiting cases of these two distributions. Testing of these theoretical results with numerous hydrological data sets on several scales validates the applicability of the ME principle, thus emphasizing the dominance of uncertainty in hydrological processes. Both theoretical and empirical results show that the state scaling is only an approximation for the high return periods, which is merely valid when processes have high variation on small time scales. In other cases the normal distributional behaviour, which does not have state scaling properties, is a more appropriate approximation. Interestingly however, as discussed in the second part of the study, the normal distribution combined with positive autocorrelation of a process, results in time scaling behaviour due to the ME principle.  相似文献   

18.
The higher mid‐latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are particularly sensitive to climate change as small differences in temperature determine frozen ground status, precipitation phase, and the magnitude and timing of snow accumulation and melt. An international inter‐catchment comparison program, North‐Watch, seeks to improve our understanding of the sensitivity of northern catchments to climate change by examining their hydrological and biogeochemical responses. The catchments are located in Sweden (Krycklan), Scotland (Mharcaidh, Girnock and Strontian), the United States (Sleepers River, Hubbard Brook and HJ Andrews) and Canada (Catamaran, Dorset and Wolf Creek). This briefing presents the initial stage of the North‐Watch program, which focuses on how these catchments collect, store and release water and identify ‘types’ of hydro‐climatic catchment response. At most sites, a 10‐year data of daily precipitation, discharge and temperature were compiled and evaporation and storage were calculated. Inter‐annual and seasonal patterns of hydrological processes were assessed via normalized fluxes and standard flow metrics. At the annual‐scale, relations between temperature, precipitation and discharge were compared, highlighting the role of seasonality, wetness and snow/frozen ground. The seasonal pattern and synchronicity of fluxes at the monthly scale provided insight into system memory and the role of storage. We identified types of catchments that rapidly translate precipitation into runoff and others that more readily store water for delayed release. Synchronicity and variance of rainfall–runoff patterns were characterized by the coefficient of variation (cv) of monthly fluxes and correlation coefficients. Principal component analysis (PCA) revealed clustering among like catchments in terms of functioning, largely controlled by two components that (i) reflect temperature and precipitation gradients and the correlation of monthly precipitation and discharge and (ii) the seasonality of precipitation and storage. By advancing the ecological concepts of resistance and resilience for catchment functioning, results provided a conceptual framework for understanding susceptibility to hydrological change across northern catchments. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
The level of complexity, and the number of parameters, to include in a hydrological model is a relatively contentious issue in hydrological modelling. However, it can be argued that explicitly representing important run‐off generation processes can improve the practical value of a model's outputs. This paper explores the benefits of including a new function into an existing semi‐distributed hydrological model (the Pitman model) that is widely used in the sub‐Saharan Africa region. The new function was designed to represent saturation‐excess surface run‐off processes at subcatchment scales and was motivated by the evidence of dambo (low topography riparian areas) type features in many sub‐Saharan river basins. The results for uncertainty versions of the model, with and without the new function, were compared for 25 catchments, which were divided up into those where evidence of dambos exists and those where there is no such evidence. The results suggest that the new function certainly improves the model results for the catchments where dambos exist, but not in situations where saturation‐excess surface run‐off is not expected to occur. The overall conclusion is therefore that the addition of the new function is justified.  相似文献   

20.
Keith Beven 《水文研究》2004,18(17):3447-3460
Robert E. Horton is best known as the originator of the infiltration excess overland flow concept for storm hydrograph analysis and prediction, which, in conjunction with the unit hydrograph concept, provided the foundation for engineering hydrology for several decades. Although these concepts, at least in their simplest form, have been largely superseded, a study of Horton's archived scientific papers reveals that his perceptual model of infiltration processes and appreciation of scale problems in modelling were far more sophisticated and complete than normally presented in hydrological texts. His understanding of surface controls on infiltration remain relevant today. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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