共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 93 毫秒
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电离层总电子含量TEC(Total Electron Content)是电离层的一个重要特征参数。对TEC的预报也已经成为电离层研究的一个热点。根据JS CORS中心提供的GPS观测数据,建立了区域实时多站多项式模型;并分别以模型计算得到的南京地区的电离层电子含量数据和苏州地区的电离层电子含量数据为样本,采用时间序列和BP神经网络融合模型进行了预报。结果表明,采用融合模型在短期预报中能够取得较好的效果,精度比时间序列模型提高20%左右。 相似文献
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应用半参数AR模型的电离层TEC建模与预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文基于时间序列分析的DDS(Dynamic Data System)建模法,对季节性的电离层总电子含量(TEC)时间序列观测值平稳化后建立自回归AR模型,提出以半参数AR模型对普通AR模型精化,并利用半参数AR模型对电离层TEC预报。实例分析表明:利用半参数AR模型对电离层TEC进行预报,在短期内半参数模型预报效果优于普通AR模型,但随着预报时间变长,则半参数模型预报精度明显下降,其预报效果则不如普通的AR模型。 相似文献
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电离层TEC建模与预测 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
基于时间序列分析的DDS(dynamic data system)法,以AR模型和CAR模型对电离层格网点进行建模并预测。实例分析表明,应用时间序列分析的AR和CAR模型对电离层格网点总电子含量进行预报,具有模型辨识过程简单、计算工作量小、便于上机实现、预测精度高等优点。与AR模型相比,CAR模型的预报效果更佳。 相似文献
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针对电离层总电子数对于提高导航定位精度的重要性,该文采用2014年国际GPS服务公布的年积日为第1~10d的电离层总电子数为原始数据,以自回归模型、灰色系统模型、BP神经网络模型两两结合的方式完成建模和预报。通过比较不同纬度、不同预测天数的实验结果分析各模型预报精度及适用范围。结果表明,利用BP神经网络模型对AR模型的预测值进行补偿,在赤道处模型拟合的相对精度达到91.32%;残差范围控制在-1.0~0.8TECU内,预报残差最优可达到0.0TECU,从而证明了该方法可以提高电离层总电子数预报精度。 相似文献
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《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2015,(5)
利用球冠谐函数和时间序列分析实现了南极地区电离层预报。首先,通过南极地区的GPS实测数据提取高精度的电离层总电子含量,并建立了极区球冠谐函数模型;然后,对不同时间段形成的模型系数时间序列进行了谱分析得到周期项,利用傅里叶三角级数拟合并预报趋势项;最后,利用时间序列分析理论中的ARMA(p,q)模型对剔除了趋势项的随机信号部分进行预报。结果表明,一天内电离层预报精度在1TECU,三天内在1.5TECU。 相似文献
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针对单一电离层总电子含量(TEC)预报模型存在的缺陷，如受外界因素干扰较大、预报精度随预报时间的增加明显降低等，本文提出一种基于补充集合经验模态分解(CEEMD)电离层TEC组合预报模型。该模型实现电离层TEC预报的关键途径为：首先，利用CEEMD对TEC原始序列进行自适应分解，得到具有不同频率的分量并依据分量复杂度分析结果进行重构；其次，使用广义回归神经网络(GRNN)模型对高频分量进行建模与预报，使用Holt-Winters模型对低频分量进行建模与预报；最后，重构高频分量预报结果与低频分量预报结果得到电离层TEC预报值。根据太阳活动选取两段不同年积日、不同纬度电离层TEC序列进行实验，结果表明本文提出组合预报模型较单一的Holt-Winters模型、GRNN模型预报精度更高，在太阳活动平静期预报结果的平均相对精度为92.83%,在太阳活动剧烈期预报结果的平均相对精度为84.35%,对于长时间TEC预报也具有较好的效果，稳定性高。 相似文献
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为了进一步研究磁暴对电离层总电子含量变化的影响,基于2017年9月6日太阳爆发X93级特大耀斑并引发磁暴现象,文中将iGMAS提供的全球电离层总电子含量格网数据与中国科学院空间环境预报中心(SEPC)提供的磁暴环电流指数进行相关性分析,并重点分析了磁暴过程中不同阶段环电流指数与全球不同纬度带电离层总电子含量变化的相关性及影响,结果表明:1) 此次特大耀斑爆发13小时后发生大磁暴,磁暴主相阶段环电流指数与滞后1 h的电离层总电子含量相关系数为-0999 7,即随着磁暴加剧电离层总电子含量迅速增加,恢复相阶段迅速减少并趋于稳定;2) 电离层总电子含量变化随磁暴环电流指数变化而变化,两者变化趋势一致,磁暴强度与电离层总电子含量变化呈强负相关性,磁暴对不同纬度带的电离层总电子含量影响趋于一致,影响程度大小由高纬至低纬逐渐递减;3) 磁暴对不同纬度带的电离层总电子含量变化影响不同步,其影响存在由高纬逐渐延伸至低纬,磁暴主相阶段对不同纬度带的影响时延约为1 h,恢复相阶段时延逐渐消失,电离层电离层总电子含量变化趋于稳定;[JP2]4) 此次磁暴恢复相阶段出现的电离层总电子含量异常变化,还有待进一步研究分析。 相似文献
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An approach to modeling the regional ionospheric total electron content (TEC) based on spherical cap harmonic analysis is
presented. This approach not only provides a better regional TEC mapping accuracy, but also the capability for ionospheric
model prediction based on spectrum analysis and least squares collocation. Unlike conventional approaches, which predict the
immediate TEC with models using current observations, the spherical cap harmonic approach utilizes models using past observations
to predict a model which will provide future TEC values. A significant advantage in comparison with conventional approaches
is that the spherical cap harmonic approach can be used to predict the long-term TEC with reasonable accuracy. This study
processes a set of GPS data with an observation time span of 1 year from two GPS networks in China. The TEC mapping accuracy
of the spherical cap harmonic model is compared with the polynomial model and the global ionosphere model from IGS. The results
show that the spherical cap harmonic model has a better TEC mapping accuracy with smoother residual distributions in both
temporal and spatial domains. The TEC prediction with the spherical cap harmonic model has been investigated for both short-
and long-term intervals. For the short-term interval, the prediction accuracies for the latencies of 1-day, 2-days, and 3-days
are 2.5 TECU, 3.5 TECU, and 4.5 TECU, respectively. For the long-term interval, the prediction accuracy is 4.5 TECU for a
2-month latency. 相似文献
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GUO Jiming LIN Hui 《地球空间信息科学学报》2005,8(3):197-200
In this paper, the TEC in China region is calculated by final GIM model and plotted as contour maps, the TEC value calculated from dual frequency GPS measurements（carrier-phase and pseudorange） is used as the reference truth and the TEC values from GIM models are then compared with the reference truth, and the accuracy and performance of GIM model in China region are analyzed and concluded. 相似文献
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In this paper, the TEC in China region is calculated by final GIM model and plotted as contour maps, the TEC value calculated from dual frequency GPS measurements (carrier-phase and pseudorange) is used as the reference truth and the TEC values from GIM models are then compared with the reference truth, and the accuracy and performance of GIM model in China region are analyzed and concluded. 相似文献
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Temporal and spatial variability of the bias between TOPEX- and GPS-derived total electron content 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
Total electron content (TEC) predictions made with the GPS-based la plata ionospheric model (LPIM) and the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI95) model were compared to estimates from the dual-frequency altimeter onboard the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) satellite. LPIM and IRI95 were evaluated for the location and time of available T/P data, from January 1997 to December 1998. To investigate temporal and spatial variations of the TEC bias between T/P and each model, the region covered by T/P observations was divided into ten latitude bands. For both models and for all latitudes, the bias was mainly positive (i.e. T/P values were larger); the LPIM bias was lower and less variable than the IRI95 bias. To perform a detailed analysis of temporal and spatial variability of the T/P-LPIM TEC bias, the Earth’s surface was divided into spherical triangles with 9°-sides, and a temporally varying regression model was fitted to every triangle. The highest TEC bias was found over the equatorial anomalies, which is attributed to errors in LPIM. A significant TEC bias was found at 40°N latitude, which is attributed to errors in the T/P Sea State Bias (SSB) correction. To separate systematic errors in the T/P TEC from those caused by LPIM, altimeter range biases estimated by other authors were analysed in connection with the TEC bias. This suggested that LPIM underestimates the TEC, particularly during the Southern Hemisphere summer, while T/P C-band SSB calibration is worse during the Southern Hemisphere winter. 相似文献
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F2层临界频率foF2是高频通信的重要参数,目前获取F2层临界频率(foF2)最有效的手段是电离层测高仪,但磁暴期间电离层自身剧烈变化会造成测高仪foF2数据严重缺失。经验模型如NeQuick虽能给出foF2估计值,但磁暴期精度却不及磁静日水平。本文选取2015年12月19日至2015年12月22日磁暴期中国地壳运动监测网GNSS双频数据进行区域建模并估算出电子总含量(total electron content,TEC),利用实测区域TEC对NeQuick模型有效电离参数Az进行估计,得出NeQuick模型优化后TEC总含量和F2层临界频率foF2,并反演出磁暴期初相,主相及恢复相阶段变化过程。以中国地区台站实测数据作为参考对比,结果表明:GNSS数据优化后的NeQuick模型TEC精度大概提升了20%~40%,foF2的实时精度提升了10%~25%。GNSS优化后NeQuick模型能准确反演出电离层的由正相暴转为负相暴演化过程,而原始模型由于仅依赖于输入的太阳活动水平,只能反映出与磁静日水平相当的日变化趋势值。利用该方法可以有效提高磁暴期TEC和foF2的经验模型的计算精度,特别是弥补磁暴期foF2数据缺失的不足,可以作为磁暴期电离层垂直探测仪的有益补充或者有效参考。 相似文献
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为了分析单站区域电离层总电子含量(total electron content,TEC)模型的适用范围和精度,基于2～15阶次球谐函数,分别建立了欧洲区域16个单站区域电离层TEC模型,生成了区域格网TEC,并与欧洲定轨中心(Center for Orbit Determination in Europe,CODE)、... 相似文献
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The mapping function is commonly used to convert slant to vertical total electron content (TEC) based on the assumption that the ionospheric electrons concentrate in a layer. The height of the layer is called ionospheric effective height (IEH) or shell height. The mapping function and IEH are generally well understood for ground-based global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations, but they are rarely studied for the low earth orbit (LEO) satellite-based TEC conversion. This study is to examine the applicability of three mapping functions for LEO-based GNSS observations. Two IEH calculating methods, namely the centroid method based on the definition of the centroid and the integral method based on one half of the total integral, are discussed. It is found that the IEHs increase linearly with the orbit altitudes ranging from 400 to 1400 km. Model simulations are used to compare the vertical TEC converted by these mapping functions and the vertical TEC directly calculated by the model. Our results illustrate that the F&K (Foelsche and Kirchengast) geometric mapping function together with the IEH from the centroid method is more suitable for the LEO-based TEC conversion, though the thin layer model along with the IEH of the integral method is more appropriate for the ground-based vertical TEC retrieval. 相似文献
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电离层总电子含量(TEC)会使合成孔径雷达干涉测量(In SAR)信号产生相位延迟,进而影响生成DEM的精度,特别是对L和P等长波段信号的影响不可忽略。因此,针对不同TEC分布模式的电离层开展研究,构建了电离层对星载In SAR测高精度的影响模型,提出了相应的校正方法,并进行了仿真实验。实验表明对于特定波长的In SAR信号,不同TEC分布模式对In SAR测高精度的影响不同:TEC均匀分布的电离层模型对In SAR测高精度的影响较小,并可通过相位解缠、基线估计等环节进行很好的补偿;而TEC不均匀分布的电离层模型对In SAR精度的影响较大,仅靠相位解缠等过程不能较好地消除,必须通过向干涉图中加入电离层影响模型予以纠正。 相似文献
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自回归移动平均模型的电离层总电子含量短期预报 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
摘 要：本文在充分考虑乘积性季节模型的情况下,利用差分法对电离层总电子含量（Total Electron Content,TEC）样本序列进行平稳化处理后,采用时间序列分析中的求和自回归移动平均模型（简称ARIMA,Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average)对TEC值序列进行预报分析。以欧洲定轨道中心（CODE）提供的2008-2012年电离层TEC值为样本数据,分析了该方法在电离层平静期、活跃期预报高、中、低不同纬度电离层TEC值的精度以及TEC样本数据的长短对预报精度的影响等。实验结果表明：在电离层平静期和活跃期预报6天的平均相对精度可达83.3%和86.6%;而平均预报残差分别为0.18±1.9TECU和0.69±2.6TECU,其中预报残差小于3TECU分别达到90%和81%以上;而且两个时期都具有纬度越高相对精度越低而绝对精度越高的规律。此外,预报精度会随TEC样本序列长度增加而提高,但40天左右为其最佳样本长度,如超过此长度,其精度会逐渐降低;而相同样本数据的预报精度会随预报长度的增加而减小,初期并不明显,但超过30天其相对精度将随时间明显降低。 相似文献