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1.
Probabilistic seismic hazard maps, in terms of spectral acceleration and uniform hazard response spectra at given sites, considering local soil conditions, represent a much more complete estimate of the seismic hazard than the traditional maps in terms of peak ground acceleration or macroseismic intensity. This is particularly true when the requests of urban planners and engineers have to be met. The present analysis shows how some hazard parameters, such as the effective peak acceleration and the spectrum intensity, can well synthesise the overall information available from traditional probabilistic studies, but also suggests that soil condition is a first-order ingredient for effective seismic hazard mapping at national level. Three Italian towns, damaged by the 1997 Umbria–Marche earthquake sequence, are considered as example to demonstrate that: (1) soil condition dependent uniform hazard spectra well approximate actual spectra recorded during some events of the seismic sequence; (2) for these localities, the design spectrum of the present Italian seismic code does not seem adequate.

These considerations have induced the Italian scientific community to propose an updating of the national seismic zonation on the basis of several hazard parameters, that are described in this paper.  相似文献   


2.
An approach that relates results from a regional seismic hazard assessment study with local-scale site-effect characterizations in an area of low-to-moderate seismic activity such as Andalusia (southern Spain), is presented. Results of a previous probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Andalusia on rock conditions are disaggregated to infer hazard controlling earthquakes for different target motions. A collection of controlling magnitude-distance pairs and the corresponding site-specific response spectra at main capital cities of the region are obtained. These spectra are first-order approximations to expected seismic actions required in local earthquake risk assessments. In addition, results of independent, local-scale studies developed in Almeria City (SE Andalusia) are used to derive an updated seismic zonation of the city. These include predominant soil period estimates and shear-wave velocity profiles at different locations. If a local seismic risk assessment study or an earthquake-resistant structural design is to be developed, it may be recommended the use of different seismic actions on sites characterized by distinct response to seismic shaking (as derived from the seismic zonation). The seismic action related to worst-case scenarios may be modeled through a hazard-consistent response spectrum, obtained by hazard disaggregation at the spectral acceleration with period matching the prevailing resonant period of the target site or structure.  相似文献   

3.
A seismic hazard assessment study of continental Ecuador is presented in this paper. The study begins with a revision of the available information on seismic events and the elaboration of a seismic catalog homogenized to magnitude Mw. Different seismic source definitions are revised and a new area-source model, based on geological and seismic data, is proposed. The available ground motion prediction equations for crustal and subduction sources are analyzed and selected for the tectonic environments observed in Ecuador. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment approach is carried out to evaluate the exceedance probability of several levels of peak ground acceleration PGA and spectral accelerations SA (T) for periods (T) of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s. The resulting hazard maps for continental Ecuador are presented, together with the uniform hazard spectra of four province capital cities. Hazard disaggregation is carried out for target motions defined by the PGA values and SA (1s) expected for return periods of 475 and 2475 years, providing estimates for short-period and long-period controlling earthquakes.  相似文献   

4.
在PEER地震动数据库(PGMD)的基础上, 结合近几年国内外特大地震的地面运动记录, 建立了地面运动数据库, 同时根据日本MW9.0特大地震获得的141组记录进行统计回归建立加速度反应谱衰减关系, 并采用条件均值反应谱法, 即设定地震与结构概率需求结合的方法选择地面运动. 选波实例表明, 当设定地震为特大地震时, 基于条件均值反应谱法选取地面运动记录时, 扩展数据库中大震记录并建立符合大震记录加速度反应谱的衰减关系是十分必要与迫切的. 该思路为进一步研究结构动态时程分析中地面运动记录选取问题及所选记录提供了依据.   相似文献   

5.
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6.
This paper presents a new hazard-consistent ground motion characterization of the Itoiz dam site, located in Northern Spain. Firstly, we propose a methodology with different approximation levels to the expected ground motion at the dam site. Secondly, we apply this methodology taking into account the particular characteristics of the site and of the dam. Hazard calculations were performed following the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment method using a logic tree, which accounts for different seismic source zonings and different ground-motion attenuation relationships. The study was done in terms of peak ground acceleration and several spectral accelerations of periods coinciding with the fundamental vibration periods of the dam. In order to estimate these ground motions we consider two different dam conditions: when the dam is empty (T?=?0.1?s) and when it is filled with water to its maximum capacity (T?=?0.22?s). Additionally, seismic hazard analysis is done for two return periods: 975?years, related to the project earthquake, and 4,975?years, identified with an extreme event. Soil conditions were also taken into account at the site of the dam. Through the proposed methodology we deal with different forms of characterizing ground motion at the study site. In a first step, we obtain the uniform hazard response spectra for the two return periods. In a second step, a disaggregation analysis is done in order to obtain the controlling earthquakes that can affect the dam. Subsequently, we characterize the ground motion at the dam site in terms of specific response spectra for target motions defined by the expected values SA (T) of T?=?0.1 and 0.22?s for the return periods of 975 and 4,975?years, respectively. Finally, synthetic acceleration time histories for earthquake events matching the controlling parameters are generated using the discrete wave-number method and subsequently analyzed. Because of the short relative distances between the controlling earthquakes and the dam site we considered finite sources in these computations. We conclude that directivity effects should be taken into account as an important variable in this kind of studies for ground motion characteristics.  相似文献   

7.
We developed a seismic hazard model for Taiwan that integrates all available tectonic, seismicity, and seismic hazard information in the region to provide risk managers and engineers with a model they can use to estimate earthquake losses and manage seismic risk in Taiwan. The seismic hazard model is composed of two major components: a seismotectonic model and a ground-shaking model. The seismotectonic model incorporates earthquakes that are expected to occur on the Ryukyu and Manila subduction zones, on the intermediate-depth Wadati-Benioff seismicity zones, on the active crustal faults, and within seismotectonic provinces. The active crustal faults include the Chelungpu fault zone, the source of the damaging MW 7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake, and the Huangchi-Hsiaoyukeng fault zone that forms the western boundary of the Taipei Basin. The ground-shaking model uses both US, worldwide, and Taiwanese attenuation relations to provide robust estimates of peak ground acceleration and response spectral acceleration on a reference site condition for shallow crustal and subduction zone earthquakes. The ground shaking for other site conditions is obtained by applying a nonlinear soil-amplification factor defined in terms of the average shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil profile, consistent with the methodology used in the current US and proposed Taiwan building codes.  相似文献   

8.
Seismotectonic zonation studies in the Tell Atlas of Algeria, a branch of the Africa-Eurasia plate boundary, provide a valuable input for deterministic seismic hazard calculations. We delineate a number of seismogenic zones from causal relationships established between geological structures and earthquakes and compile a working seismic catalogue mainly from readily available sources. To this catalogue, for a most rational and best-justified hazard analysis, we add estimates of earthquake size translated from active faulting characteristics. We assess the regional seismic hazard using a deterministic procedure based on the computation of complete synthetic seismograms (up to 1 Hz) by the modal summation technique. As a result, we generate seismic hazard maps of maximum velocity, maximum displacement, and design ground acceleration that blend information from geology, historical seismicity and observational seismology, leading to better estimates of the earthquake hazard throughout northern Algeria. Our analysis and the resulting maps illustrate how different the estimate of seismic hazard is based primarily on combined geologic and seismological data with respect to the one for which only information from earthquake catalogues has been used.  相似文献   

9.
The paper presents recent achievements in evaluations of site-dependent seismic hazard in Romania and the capital city of Bucharest caused by the Vrancea focal zone (SE-Carpathians). The zone is characterized by a high rate of occurrence of large earthquakes in a narrow focal volume at depths 60–170 km. The database that was used for the hazard evaluation includes parameters of seismicity, ground-motion source scaling and attenuation models (Fourier amplitude spectra), and site-dependent spectral amplification functions. Ground-motion characteristics were evaluated on the basis of several hundred records from more than 120 small magnitude (M 3.5–5) earthquakes occurred in 1996–2001 and a few tens of acceleration records obtained during four large (M 7.4, 7.2, 6.9 and 6.3) earthquakes. The data provide a basis for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in terms of peak ground acceleration, peak spectral acceleration and MSK intensity using Fourier amplitude spectra for various exceedance probabilities or average return periods. It has been shown that the influence of geological factors plays very important role in distribution of earthquake ground-motion parameters along the territory of Romania.  相似文献   

10.
Located on the Alpine-Himalayan earthquake belt, Iran is one of the seismically active regions of the world. Northern Iran, south of Caspian Basin, a hazardous subduction zone, is a densely populated and developing area of the country. Historical and instrumental documented seismicity indicates the occurrence of severe earthquakes leading to many deaths and large losses in the region. With growth of seismological and tectonic data, updated seismic hazard assessment is a worthwhile issue in emergency management programs and long-term developing plans in urban and rural areas of this region. In the present study, being armed with up-to-date information required for seismic hazard assessment including geological data and active tectonic setting for thorough investigation of the active and potential seismogenic sources, and historical and instrumental events for compiling the earthquake catalogue, probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is carried out for the region using three recent ground motion prediction equations. The logic tree method is utilized to capture epistemic uncertainty of the seismic hazard assessment in delineation of the seismic sources and selection of attenuation relations. The results are compared to a recent practice in code-prescribed seismic hazard of the region and are discussed in detail to explore their variation in each branch of logic tree approach. Also, seismic hazard maps of peak ground acceleration in rock site for 475- and 2,475-year return periods are provided for the region.  相似文献   

11.
Surat, the financial capital of Gujarat, India, is a mega city with a population exceeding five millions. The city falls under Zone III of the Seismic Zoning Map of India. After the devastating 2001 Bhuj earthquake of Mw 7.7, much attention is paid towards the seismic microzonation activity in the state of Gujarat. In this work, an attempt has been made to evaluate the seismic hazard for Surat City (21.170?N, 72.830?E) based on the probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard analysis. After collecting a catalogue of historical earthquakes in a 350?km radius around the city and after analyzing a database statistically, deterministic analysis has been carried out considering known tectonic sources; a further recurrence relationship for the control region is found out. Probabilistic seismic hazard analyses were then carried out for the Surat region considering five seismotectonic sources selected from a deterministic approach. The final results of the present investigations are presented in the form of peak ground acceleration and response spectra at bed rock level considering the local site conditions. Rock level Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration values at 0.01?s and 1.0?s corresponding to 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years have been calculated. Further Uniform Hazard Response Spectrum (UHRS) at rock level for 5% damping, and 10% and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years, were also developed for the city considering all site classes. These results can be directly used by engineers as basic inputs in earthquake-resistant design of structures in and around the city.  相似文献   

12.
—?The problem of accounting for local soil effect on earthquake ground motion is especially urgent when assessing seismic hazard – recent needs of earthquake engineering require local site effects to be included into hazard maps. However, most recent works do not consider the variety of soil conditions or are performed for generalized site categories, such as “hard rock,”“soft soil” or “alluvium.” A technique of seismic hazard calculations on the basis of the Fourier Amplitude Spectra recently developed by the authors allows us to create hazard maps involving the influence of local soil conditions using soil/bedrock spectral ratios. Probabilistic microzoning maps may be constructed showing macroseismic intensity, peak ground acceleration, response and design spectra for various return periods (probability of exceedance), that allow optimization of engineering decisions. An application of this approach is presented which focused on the probabilistic microzoning of the Tashkent City.  相似文献   

13.
基于日本KiK-Net、K-Net地震台网和太平洋地震工程中心（PEER）的14 713条地震动记录,比较了俯冲带地区浅壳上地幔地震、板内地震和板间地震的水平向地震动加速度反应谱阻尼修正系数（DMF）和位移反应谱阻尼修正系数（DMF）的差异,并进行了5%置信水平下的假设检验,探究了俯冲带地区不同地震类型对DMF的影响。结果显示:在大多数谱周期,不同地震类型的DMF存在统计意义上的显著差异;在低阻尼比中短周期时,加速度谱DMF和位移谱DMF基本相同;在高阻尼比长周期时,不同地震类型的加速度谱DMF差异大于位移谱DMF差异。研究表明:俯冲带地震水平向地震动DMF需要考虑不同地震类型的影响。  相似文献   

14.
This work summarises the seismic hazard analysis performed for the complete characterisation of strong ground-motion at the site of the Itoiz dam (Western Pyrenees, Spain). The hazard analysis includes the compilation of a composite catalogue from French and Spanish agencies, the definition of an original hybrid seismogenic source model (including zones and major faults) and the selection of ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs). Hazard results are provided as hazard curves and acceleration response spectra on rock for the 1000- and 5000-year return periods, which correspond respectively to the operating basis earthquake (OBE) and safety evaluation earthquake (SEE). The impact of truncating GMPEs at a number of standard deviations (epsilon) has been found not critical here for the return periods targeted. Subsequently, an analysis of the contribution of each source to total hazard and a hazard disaggregation analysis are performed in order to establish the earthquake-source parameters for both the OBE and SEE scenarios consistently with the seismotectonics of the region. The European Strong Motion database is then searched and a selection of records is proposed for each of the scenarios. Our results suggest that seismic hazard in the region is underestimated by the official Spanish seismic hazard map included in the current version of the code (NCSE-02), which is the reference document for the definition of seismic actions for dam projects in the whole Pyrenees.  相似文献   

15.
A probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) was conducted to establish the hazard spectra for a site located at Dubai Creek on the west coast of the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The PSHA considered all the seismogenic sources that affect the site, including plate boundaries such as the Makran subduction zone, the Zagros fold-thrust region and the transition fault system between them; and local crustal faults in UAE. PSHA indicated that local faults dominate the hazard. The peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the 475-year return period spectrum is 0.17 g and 0.33 g for the 2,475-year return period spectrum. The hazard spectra are then employed to establish rock ground motions using the spectral matching technique.  相似文献   

16.
The seismic performance of conventional wood‐frame structures in south‐western British Columbia is analytically investigated through incremental dynamic analysis by utilizing available UBC‐SAWS models, which were calibrated based on experimental test results. To define an adequate target response spectrum that is consistent with information from national seismic hazard maps, record selection/scaling based on the conditional mean spectrum (CMS) is implemented. Furthermore, to reflect complex seismic hazard contributions from different earthquake sources (i.e. crustal events, interface events, and inslab events), we construct CMS for three earthquake types, and use them to select and scale an adequate set of ground motion records for the seismic performance evaluation. We focus on the impacts of adopting different record selection criteria and of using different shear‐wall types (Houses 1–4; in terms of seismic resistance, House 1>House 2>House 3>House 4) on the nonlinear structural response. The results indicate that the record selection procedures have significant influence on the probabilistic relationship between spectral acceleration at the fundamental vibration period and maximum inter‐story drift ratio, highlighting the importance of taking into account response spectral shapes in selecting and scaling ground motion records. Subjected to ground motions corresponding to the return period of 2500 years, House 1 is expected to experience very limited extent of damage; Houses 2 and 3 may be disturbed by minor damage; whereas House 4 may suffer from major damage occasionally. Finally, we develop statistical models of the maximum inter‐story drift ratio conditioned on a seismic intensity level for wood‐frame houses, which is useful for seismic vulnerability assessment. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
-- We investigate the impact of different rupture and attenuation models for the Cascadia subduction zone by simulating seismic hazard models for the Pacific Northwest of the U.S. at 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years. We calculate the sensitivity of hazard (probabilistic ground motions) to the source parameters and the attenuation relations for both intraslab and interface earthquakes and present these in the framework of the standard USGS hazard model that includes crustal earthquakes. Our results indicate that allowing the deep intraslab earthquakes to occur anywhere along the subduction zone increases the peak ground acceleration hazard near Portland, Oregon by about 20%. Alternative attenuation relations for deep earthquakes can result in ground motions that differ by a factor of two. The hazard uncertainty for the plate interface and intraslab earthquakes is analyzed through a Monte-Carlo logic tree approach and indicates a seismic hazard exceeding 1 g (0.2 s spectral acceleration) consistent with the U.S. National Seismic Hazard Maps in western Washington, Oregon, and California and an overall coefficient of variation that ranges from 0.1 to 0.4. Sensitivity studies indicate that the paleoseismic chronology and the magnitude of great plate interface earthquakes contribute significantly to the hazard uncertainty estimates for this region. Paleoseismic data indicate that the mean earthquake recurrence interval for great earthquakes is about 500 years and that it has been 300 years since the last great earthquake. We calculate the probability of such a great earthquake along the Cascadia plate interface to be about 14% when considering a time-dependent model and about 10% when considering a time-independent Poisson model during the next 50-year interval.  相似文献   

18.
根据最近几次的近断层地震观测记录研究显示,在现行结构抗震设计规范中很少考虑近断层效应的影响,对于缺乏近断层强震观测资料地区,抗震设计规范的改进方法及近断层效应的设计参数还没有统一结论. 本文基于UBC97近断层因子设计理念, 在收集世界范围内近断层观测记录的基础上,按场地和震级进行分类,建立了中长周期关键点处的加速度谱需求的衰减关系式,推导给出了缺乏近断层观测资料地区近断层影响因子的震级和断层距的关系式. 并以我国现行的建筑抗震设计规范为基础,建议了近断层影响因子的参考取值和修正后的反应谱曲线,为我国结构抗震设计提供了参考.   相似文献   

19.
Earthquakes trigger other earthquakes and build up clusters in space and time that in turn create a bias in seismic catalogues. Therefore, declustering is considered as a prerequisite in seismic studies, particularly for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, not only to eliminate the bias but also to decouple mainshocks and triggered events. However, a declustering process is not a straightforward task due to the complex nature of earthquake phenomena. There exist several declustering methods that mostly employ subjective rules to distinguish between background seismicity and offsprings. Eventually, the final declustered catalogues usually deviate significantly according to the employed method. This issue is raising some concerns, such as how to select the most suitable declustering algorithm, or to assess how this selection affects seismic hazard assessment. In consequence, the main goal of this paper is to quantify the sensitivity of seismic hazard assessments to different declustering techniques. Accordingly, the recently compiled Turkish earthquake catalogue was declustered by making use of three declustering algorithms. A total of six declustered catalogues, two catalogues per method, one by implementing the default input parameters, and one by altering the free input parameters of the employed methods, were produced. The clusters of selected earthquakes were studied in terms of the spatial–temporal distribution of earthquake sequences. A sensitivity analysis was conducted through the major steps of seismic hazard assessment for Istanbul metropolitan city. The seismicity of Istanbul and surroundings was modeled on the basis of four areal source zones. Comparative studies showed that, while the selected declustering algorithm did not significantly affect the completeness periods of moderate to large size earthquakes, it considerably altered those of small magnitude events (e.g. Mw 4.3–5.2) and consequently the recurrence parameters of the source zones. Depending on the declustering algorithm and input parameters, the activity rate was observed to vary up to a factor of two. The differences in the declustered catalogues obtained from different declustering approaches resulted in considerable variations in seismic hazard estimations. The hazard maps at return periods of 475 and 2475 years indicated that peak ground acceleration values may vary up to 20% at some locations. Moreover, the differences in 5% damped elastic spectral accelerations at T = 0.2 for the return periods of 475 and 2475 years are about 18 and 12%, respectively, on the southern shores of Istanbul where the highest hazard levels are observed.  相似文献   

20.
We present the regional ground-motion prediction equations for peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA), and seismic intensity (MSK scale) for the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes (SE-Carpathians) and territory of Romania. The prediction equations were constructed using the stochastic technique on the basis of the regional Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) source scaling and attenuation models and the generalised site amplification functions. Values of considered ground motion parameters are given as the functions of earthquake magnitude, depth and epicentral distance. The developed ground-motion models were tested and calibrated using the available data from the large Vrancea earthquakes. We suggest to use the presented equations for the rapid estimation of seismic effect after strong earthquakes (Shakemap generation) and seismic hazard assessment, both deterministic and probabilistic approaches.  相似文献   

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