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1.
This paper presents the development of a Regional Neural Network for Water Level (RNN_WL) predictions, with an application to the coastal inlets along the South Shore of Long Island, New York. Long-term water level data at coastal inlets are important for studying coastal hydrodynamics sediment transport. However, it is quite common that long-term water level observations may be not available, due to the high cost of field data monitoring. Fortunately, the US National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has a national network of water level monitoring stations distributed in regional scale that has been operating for several decades. Therefore, it is valuable and cost effective for a coastal engineering study to establish the relationship between water levels at a local station and a NOAA station in the region. Due to the changes of phase and amplitude of water levels over the regional coastal line, it is often difficult to obtain good linear regression relationship between water levels from two different stations. Using neural network offers an effective approach to correlate the non-linear input and output of water levels by recognizing the historic patterns between them. In this study, the RNN_WL model was developed to enable coastal engineers to predict long-term water levels in a coastal inlet, based on the input of data in a remote NOAA station in the region. The RNN_WL model was developed using a feed-forwards, back-propagation neural network structure with an optimized training algorithm. The RNN_WL model can be trained and verified using two independent data sets of hourly water levels.The RNN_WL model was tested in an application to Long Island South Shore. Located about 60–100 km away from the inlets there are two permanent long-term water level stations, which have been operated by NOAA since the1940s. The neural network model was trained using hourly data over a one-month period and validated for another one-month period. The model was then tested over year-long periods. Results indicate that, despite significant changes in the amplitudes and phases of the water levels over the regional study area, the RNN_WL model provides very good long-term predictions of both tidal and non-tidal water levels at the regional coastal inlets. In order to examine the effects of distance on the RNN_WL model performance, the model was also tested using water levels from other remote NOAA stations located at longer distances, which range from 234 km to 591 km away from the local station at the inlets. The satisfactory results indicate that the RNN_WL model is able to supplement long-term historical water level data at the coastal inlets based on the available data at remote NOAA stations in the coastal region. 相似文献
2.
Evaluation of GEV model for frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels in the coast of United States 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The three-parameter generalized-extreme-value (GEV) model has been recommended by FEMA [FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency of the United States), 2004. Final Draft Guidelines for Coastal Flood Hazard Analysis and Mapping for the Pacific Coast of the United States. http://www.fema.gov/library/viewRecord.do?id=2188] for frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels in the Pacific coast of the United States. Yet, the GEV model's performance in other coastal areas still needs to be evaluated. The GEV model combines three types of probability distributions into one expression. The probability distributions can be defined by one of the three parameters of the GEV model. In this study, annual maximum water levels at nine water-level stations with long history data (more than 70 years) were chosen for analysis in five coastal areas: Pacific, Northeast Atlantic, East Atlantic, Southeast Atlantic, and Gulf of Mexico coasts. Parameters of the GEV model are estimated by the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. Results indicate that probability distributions are characterized by the GEV Type III model at stations in the Pacific, Northeast, and East Atlantic coastal areas, while they are described by GEV Type II in stations of the Southeast Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. GEV model predictions of extreme water levels show good correlation to observations with correlation coefficients of 0.89 to 0.99. For predictions of 10% annual maximum water levels, the GEV model predictions are very good with errors equal to or less than 5% for all nine stations. Comparison of observations and GEV model estimations of annual maximum water levels for the longest recorded return periods, close to 100 years, revealed errors equal to or less than 5% for stations in the Pacific and Northeast Atlantic coastal areas. However, the errors range from 10% to 28% for other stations located in the East and Southeast Atlantic coasts as well as Gulf of Mexico coastal areas. Findings from this study suggest caution regarding the magnitudes of errors in applying the GEV model to the East and Southeast Atlantic coasts and Gulf of Mexico coast for estimating 100-year annual maximum water levels for coastal flood analysis. 相似文献
3.
《Coastal Engineering》2004,51(4):277-296
A cyclone induced storm surge and flood forecasting system that has been developed for the northern Bay of Bengal is presented. The developed system includes a cyclone forecasting model that uses statistical models for forecasting of the cyclone track and maximum wind speed, and an analytical cyclone model for generation of cyclone wind and pressure fields. A data assimilation system has been developed that allows updating of the cyclone parameters based on air pressure and wind speed observations from surface meteorological stations. The forecasted air pressure and wind fields are used as input in a 2D hydrodynamic model for forecasting storm surge levels and associated flooding. An efficient uncertainty prediction procedure based on Harr's point estimation method has been implemented as part of the forecasting system for prediction of the uncertainties of the forecasted storm surge levels and inundation areas caused by the uncertainties in the cyclone track and wind speed forecasts. The developed system is applied on a severe cyclone that hit Bangladesh in April 1991. The simulated storm surge and associated flooding are highly sensitive to the cyclone data. The cyclone data assimilation system provides a more accurate cyclone track when the cyclone approaches the coastline, which results in a significant improvement of the storm surge and flood predictions. Application of the uncertainty prediction procedure shows that the large uncertainties of the cyclone track and intensity forecasts result in large uncertainties of the forecasted storm surge levels and flood extend. The forecasting system shows very good forecasting capabilities up to 24 h before the actual landfall. 相似文献
4.
珠江河网横向汊道体系是维持三角洲河网动力平衡的独特地貌结构,具有泄洪纳潮的重要功能,探讨该结构水位的阶段性演变及其影响因子辨识是河口动力学研究的重要科学问题。采用流量驱动的R＿TIDE数据驱动模型,对研究区域内“容桂-凫洲水道”和“潭洲-前航道”两个典型横向汊道体系共8个站点的日均水位序列进行分解,分离出由上游流量驱动引起的水位变化及地形和海平面共同驱动的水位变化。结果表明,经过水库的调蓄作用,在“容桂-凫洲水道”,流量驱动导致冬季日均水位抬升(平均为0.04m),其余三季日均水位下降;“潭洲-前航道”则由于北江流量增大导致流量驱动的日均水位均有不同程度的抬升(平均为0.17 m)。由于地形下切和海平面上升,地形和海平面共同驱动的日均水位变化普遍为负值(除南沙、黄埔站分别为0.11、0.07 m),“容桂-凫洲水道”中下部河段在秋季受海平面上升(秋季海平面高程最大)影响大于河床地形下切效应导致水位抬升,而其余站点主要受到疏浚、采砂等人类活动引起的地形下降影响,水位下降,且上游变化幅度明显大于下游;对径潮动力方差贡献率的分析结果表明,“容桂-凫洲水道”和“潭洲-前航道”夏季径流对水位的方... 相似文献
5.
径潮相互作用是感潮河段水动力变化的典型特征,受其影响潮波传播具有明显的洪枯季及沿程变化。本文基于长江感潮河段天生港、江阴、镇江、南京、马鞍山及芜湖6个潮位站2002?2014年连续高低潮位资料及大通站月均流量数据,统计分析长江感潮河段潮波振幅衰减率、潮波传播速度及余水位坡度等传播特征值的洪枯季及沿程变化特征,并探讨这些潮波传播特征的变化规律及其主要影响因素。结果表明,潮波传播特征的洪枯季差异自上游至下游逐渐减小,其分界点位于天生港与江阴之间（其中,天生港和江阴站的多年平均洪枯季潮差差值约为0.01 m和?0.04 m）;径流动力对潮波衰减的影响主要位于江阴以上河段,江阴以下河段主要受潮汐动力控制;径流驱动下余水位坡度引起的余水位及水深增加,导致潮波传播的有效摩擦减小,当流量超过某个阈值时潮波振幅衰减反而减弱,特别是上游马鞍山-芜湖段最为明显,统计结果表明该河段流量阈值约为33 000 m3/s。本文分析结果作为前人研究的重要补充,可为长江河口感潮河段径潮相互作用机制研究及河口治理等提供基础参考。 相似文献
6.
State‐of‐the‐art technology is presently being used for the acquisition of water level and meteorological data in the Intra‐Americas Sea to support the Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS) network of sea‐level monitoring stations. GLOSS stations provide data for the investigation of regional relative sea level change in areas of complex tectonic motion, national geodetic vertical datums, near real‐time data for input to climatic diagnostic numerical models, calibration of satellite altimeter and scatterometer data, and the evaluation of the feasibility of producing synoptic mean sea level charts for the prediction of climatic trends, long‐range weather forecasts, and ocean processes. 相似文献
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The long-term variation and seasonal variation of sea level have a notable effect on the calculation of engineering water level. Such an effect is first analyzed in this paper. The maximal amplitude of inter-annual anomaly of monthly mean sea level along the China coast is larger than 60 cm. Both the storm surge disaster and cold wave disaster are seasonal disasters in various regions, so the water level corresponding to the 1% of the cumulative frequency in the cumulative frequency curve of hourly water level data for different seasons in various sea areas is different from design water level, for example, the difference between them reaches maximum in June, July and August for northern sea area, and maximum in September, October and November for Southern China Sea. The hourly water level data of 19 gauge stations along the China coast are analyzed. Firstly, the annual mean sea level for every station is obtained; secondly, linear chan ging rates of annual mean sea level are obtained with the stochasti 相似文献
9.
Praveen Gupta Amit Kumar Dubey Nandita Goswami Raghvendra Pratap Singh Prakash Chauhan 《Marine Geodesy》2015,38(3):614-625
In the absence of many gauging stations in the major and mighty river systems, there is a need for satellite-based observations to estimate temporal variations in the river water storage and associated water management. In this study, SARAL/AltiKa application for setting up hydraulic model (HEC-RAS) and river flow simulations over Tapi River India has been discussed. Waveform data of 40 Hz from Ka band altimeter has been used for water levels retrieval in the Tapi river. SARAL/AltiKa retrieved water levels were converted to discharge in the upstream location (track-926) using the rating curve available for the nearby gauging site and using linear spatial interpolation technique. Steady state simulations were done for various flow conditions in the upstream. Validation of river flow model was done in the downstream location (track-367) by comparing simulated and altimeter retrieved water levels (RMSE 0.67 m). Validated model was used to develop rating curve between water levels and simulated discharge for the downstream location which enables to monitor discharge variations from satellite platform in the absence of in situ observations. It has been demonstrated that SARAL/AltiKa data has potential for river flow monitoring and modeling which will feed for flood disaster forecasting, management and planning. 相似文献
10.
在渤海选用了82个强天气过程,利用三维模式模拟了海区的天文-风暴潮,模式经实测资料检验,获得了较满意的模拟结果。根据渤海沿岸主要验潮站观测年极值高(低)水位和年极值风增(减)水所得到的多年一遇高(低)水位和多年一遇风增(减)水,以及天文最高(最低)潮位,建立了由多年一遇风增(减)水和天文最高(最低)潮位的线性组合计算多年一遇高(低)水位的计算公式,并以此公式推算了渤海海区5个典型地区的多年一遇高(低)水位,供海洋工程设计时使用。 相似文献
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The issue of sea level rise is receiving considerable attention all over the world. Although the Indian stations have shown mixed trends, a positive sea level trend has been noticed in the Hooghly Estuary, situated on the east coast of India. The Hooghly River serves as a navigable waterway to Calcutta and Haldia ports. The river is tidal for nearly 250 km. To study the water levels and tidal currents in the lower part of the Hooghly Estuary, from sea face at Sagar to Hooghly Point, a vertically integrated numerical model has been used. The model is fully nonlinear and uses a semiexplicit finite‐difference scheme to solve the basic hydrodynamic equations on a staggered grid. This model is coupled with a one‐dimensional model, which has been used for the upper estuary from Hooghly Point to Swarupganj, where the flow is unidirectional. The computed water levels and currents are found to be in good agreement with the available observations. This model is applied to study the alterations in tidal circulation for a rise and fall in the sea level. The results have shown a substantial increase in the amplitude and velocities of the tidal wave due to the sea level rise. 相似文献
14.
Beach and nearshore levels have been measured yearly along the entire Dutch North Sea coast since the mid 1960s (the ‘Jarkus’ data set). This data set has been processed to create separate time series of beach volumes at longshore intervals of about 250 m, giving over 2000 time series in total. These time series typically show a high annual variability with weak long-term trends. The present Dutch national coastal management strategy involves making year-ahead forecasts of beach volumes by extrapolating a linear least squares trend through the previous ten years' data separately for each longshore location. In this paper, these forecasts are shown to be worse than the trivial forecast in which the most recently measured beach volume persists unchanged into the future, with a mean square error (MSE) about 13.5% worse (equivalent to a root mean square error (RMSE) 6.5% worse). Improvements to these forecasts are sought by testing six different univariate forecasting methods. The two best methods improve on the persistence of the most recently measured beach volume by about 15% MSE (8% RMSE), and on the presently used linear least squares trend method by about 25% MSE (13.5% RMSE). Further comparisons are made between the forecasting methods to investigate several factors. These include varying the amount of fitting data for the forecasting methods, smoothing of the fitting data, different methods for interpolating gaps in the data, the longshore aggregation of data, making forecasts for coastal profiles with and without nourishments, and making forecasts up to five years ahead. These forecasting methods are designed as a coastal management tool to provide yearly forecasts quickly and routinely for the whole Dutch North Sea coast. 相似文献
15.
Christian Ferrarin Georg Umgiesser Marco Bajo Debora Bellafiore Francesca De Pascalis Michol Ghezzo Giorgio Mattassi Isabella Scroccaro 《Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science》2010
The hydraulic regime-based zonation scheme of the Lagoons of Marano and Grado (Italy) has been derived by means of numerical models. A finite element modelling system has been used to describe the water circulation taking in account different forces such as tide, wind and rivers. The model has been validated by comparing the simulation results against measured water levels, salinity and water temperature data collected in several stations inside the lagoons. The analysis of water circulation, salinity and spatial distribution of passive tracers released at the inlets, led to a physically-based division of the lagoons system into six subbasins. The derived classification scheme is of crucial value for understanding the renewal capacity and pollutants distribution patterns in the lagoon. 相似文献
16.
The Drake Passage region near Elephant Island in the Southern Ocean displays patchy phytoplankton blooms. To test the hypothesis that natural Fe addition from localized sources promoted phytoplankton growth here, a grid of stations (59°S to 62°S, 59°W to 53°W, as well as four stations in the eastern Bransfield Strait) were occupied from 12 February–24 March 2004. Phytoplankton abundance was measured using shipboard flow cytometry (70 stations), with abundances conservatively converted to biomass, and compared with measurements of dissolved iron (dFe) at a subset of stations (30 stations). Based on T–S property plots, stations were divided into Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), Water On Shelf (WOS), Bransfield Strait (BS), and Mixed water stations, the latter representing locations with T–S properties intermediate between ACC and WOS stations. The highest integrated phytoplankton biomass was found at Mixed water stations, however, the highest integrated abundance was found at WOS stations, demonstrating that abundance and biomass do not necessarily show the same patterns. The distributions of nano- and micro-phytoplankton (<20 and >20 μm diameter cells, respectively) were also examined, with nano- and micro-plankton contributing equally to the total biomass at WOS and BS stations, but micro-plankton representing ∼2/3 of the biomass at Mixed and ACC stations. Increased inventories of dFe did not always correspond to increases in phytoplankton biomass – rather stations with lower mean light levels in the mixed layer (<110 μEinsteins m−2 s−1) had lower biomass despite higher ambient dFe concentrations. However, where the mean light levels in the mixed layer were >110 μEinsteins m−2 s−1, total biomass shows a positive trend with dFe, as does micro-phytoplankton biomass, but neither regression is significant at the 95% level. In contrast, if just nano-phytoplankton biomass is considered as a function of dFe, there is a significant correlation (r2=0.62). These data suggest a dual mechanism for the patterns observed in biomass: an increasing reservoir of dFe allows increased phytoplankton biomass, but biomass can only accumulate where the light levels are relatively high, such that light is not limiting to growth. 相似文献
17.
基于AMBI和M-AMBI指数的黄河口及邻近海域底栖生境质量评价 总被引：4，自引：3，他引：1
The protection of the biological diversity and the maintenance of the regional ecological integrity for the Huanghe （Yellow River） Estuary and its adjacent areas are practically significant and valuable. However, frequent human activities and natural climate changes have caused vigorous disturbances on the ecosystem in these sea areas. An objective assessment on the benthic habitat quality （BHQ） of the Huanghe Estuary and its adjacent areas is conducted, using AZTI＇s Marine Biotic Index （AMBI） and multivariate AMBI （M-AMBI） based on the data of macrobenthos in May and August 2011. The results show that both the indices do not correlate significantly, and their assessment results are greatly different. All of the samples assessed using the AMBI were ＂high＂ or ＂good＂, because the ecological group I （EGI） and the ecological group II （EGII） were dominant macrobenthic ecological groups in the research area. Owing to a low species＇ richness and a high individual abundance in some samples, the BHQ levels using the M-AMBI were worse than those of the AMBI. Significant correlations are observed between the M-AMBI, water depth, bottom water salinity and dissolved inorganic nitrogen, thus the M-AMBI could sensitively respond to environmental changes and distinguish influences from uninfluenced stations, but the AMBI could not. The consistent results between the AMBI and the M-AMBI mainly appeared in the uninfluenced （undisturbed or slightly disturbed） sta- tions. Therefore, the M-AMBI is more effective than the AMBI in assessing the benthic habitat quality in the Huanghe Estuary and its adjacent areas. Using the M-AMBI to assess the BHQ of the Huanghe Estuary and its adjacent areas, the results show that 3% of the stations are undisturbed and the BHQs are ＂high＂, and 61% of the stations are slightly disturbed and those of the BHQ are ＂good＂, and the rest are meanly disturbed and those of the BHQ are ＂moderate＂. 相似文献
18.
河口的水位变化是径潮动力相互作用的结果,但近30年来,强人类活动对河口环境的影响已远超环境自我修复能力,导致水位发生异变。为研究这种变化,本文选取人类活动影响剧烈的珠江磨刀门河口作为研究区域,采用Copula方法定量分析在同一上下边界(上游流量和口外海平面)下由强人类活动引起的水位异变。结果表明:1)强人类活动后,河道地形下切显著,外海海平面对沿程各站水位的线性影响增强,上游马口流量对水位的线性影响减弱。2)强人类活动后甘竹至灯笼山站同概率水位事件明显降低;三灶海平面呈上升趋势;马口流量分布特性变化不明显。3)水位与海平面、流量的联合依赖关系发生明显改变,低水位与海平面关系的敏感度增加,而高水位与海平面关系的敏感度下降。低水位与流量关系的敏感度基本不变,而高水位与珠江流量关系的敏感度明显下降。4)强人类活动后各站水位变化幅度变窄,在相同概率海平面及流量驱动下,强人类活动后各站水位均有明显下降,水位与海平面、流量遭遇概率为0.1—0.9时,其月均水位下降幅度达0.01—1.24m。低海平面和低流量联合驱动下各站水位的下降幅度明显小于高海平面和高流量联合驱动下月均水位的变幅,而且上游站位的水位下降幅度明显大于下游站位。本研究成果可为强人类活动的影响辨识及珠三角水资源的合理配置和可持续发展利用等提供技术支撑。 相似文献
19.
ten Hallers-Tjabbes CC Wegener JW Van Hattum B Kemp JF ten Hallers E Reitsemae TJ Boon JP 《Marine environmental research》2003,55(3):203-233
The presence and the development of imposex were investigated in the common whelk (Buccinum undatum) and the red whelk (Neptunea antiqua) from the open North Sea and the Skagerrak. Imposex development was related to levels of organotins in snails and in the fine fractions (< 63 microm) of the sediments they inhabit. The sampling locations were classified according to three levels of traffic densities of ships of > or = 100 gt per day passing within 15 Nautical miles of the sampling station, shipping levels being: high (> 10 ships day(-1)), intermediate (5--10 ships day(-1)), and low (< 5 ships day(-1)). Sampling stations were also classified according to presence or absence of a vertically stratified water column. In the snails the body levels of the butyltin metabolites MBT and DBT and the parent phenyltin compound TPT, were higher than those of TBT and PT metabolites. In the sediment, the parent compounds and the mono-substituted metabolites MBT and MPT were present in the highest concentrations. The highest body levels of all organotin compounds and the highest imposex indices for the common whelk were found at those locations in the Southern Bight and the German Bight that had a high shipping density as well as a homogeneously mixed water column during the whole year. At these locations sediment levels of organotins were also higher than at other sites. In contrast, the body levels of organotins were low and imposex was sometimes even completely absent in snails from stratified deep-water stations in the Skagerrak, despite a very high shipping density in the entrance area of the Baltic. In sediments from stratified locations with low or intermediate shipping densities, organotin compounds were below or close to their respective limits of detection. These stations were located in areas with a stratified water column during the whole year. The results can be explained by postulating a much higher resistance for dissolved organotins to migrate through a pycnocline. Organotins could only transgress through a pycnocline when adsorbed to settling particles that manage to transgress the boundary between layers. N. antiqua could only be obtained in sufficient numbers from deeper water stations, which almost all had a stratified water column. At stations where both snail species were obtained and imposex was present, the imposex index was higher in the red whelk. Hence N. antiqua seems to be the more sensitive species of the two. In the red whelk, imposex development increased with shipping density too, though in the smaller samples the trend was not significant. Average biota-sediment accumulation factors (BSAFs; normalised for lipid content in snails and TOC content in the fraction < 63 microm in sediments) for Buccinum ranged from 0.4 to 1.0 for butyltins and were similar to literature values reported for TBT in other marine species. Higher average BSAF values were found for phenyltins 1.5 (MPT) to 17 (TPT). The high values for TPT match the ranges expected from equilibrium partitioning concepts of persistent hydrophobic compounds. The ratio of live snails to the total number of live snails plus empty shells ranged between 2.5 and 93%. This parameter might be a useful indicator to compare past and present densities of populations of both species in different areas of the North Sea. 相似文献
20.
采用数值模拟和水力学模型，对沾化电厂扩建后徒骇河供水能力进行了定量计算．通过分析取水前后典型站位及河道沿程水位、流量的变化，对影响取水的因素进行了初步探讨，对增大取水量的工程措施提出了建议。 相似文献