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1.
Development and Implementation of a Bayesian-based Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment in Florida 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4
Jonathan D. Arthur H. Alex R. Wood Alan E. Baker James R. Cichon Gary L. Raines 《Natural Resources Research》2007,16(2):93-107
The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource
management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination.
The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of
maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida’s principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process,
from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE
model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient
groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential
themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head
difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically
established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects
classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response
theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of
a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful
implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative
technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida’s springsheds have led to development of
larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning amendments
and prioritization of land purchases to protect groundwater resources. 相似文献
2.
《自然地理学》2013,34(2):130-153
Contamination of ground water has been a major environmental concern in recent years. The potential for ground-water contamination by pesticides depends on porous media, solute, and hydrologic parameters. Although sophisticated deterministic computer models are available for assessing aquifer-contamination potential on a site-by-site basis, most deterministic models are too complex for vulnerability assessment on a regional scale because they require input data that are spatially and temporally variable, and which may not be available at this scale. Therefore, development of an affordable model that is robust under conditions of uncertainty at the watershed scale with minimum input of field data becomes a useful ground-water management tool. The purpose of this study was to examine the usefulness of fuzzy rule-based techniques in predicting aquifer vulnerability to pesticides at the regional scale. The objectives were to (1) develop fuzzy rule-based models using the same input parameters contained in an index-based model (i.e., the modified DRASTIC model), (2) determine the sensitivity of fuzzy rule model predictions, (3) compare the outputs of the fuzzy rule-based models with those of the modified DRASTIC model and with the results of aquifer water-quality analyses, and (4) examine the spatial variability of field parameters around contaminated wells of the Alluvial aquifer in Woodruff County Arkansas. The fuzzy rule-based model for objective (1) was developed using similar parameter weights and ratings as the modified DRASTIC model. For objective (2), fuzzy rule-based models were created using fewer parameters than the modified DRASTIC model. Sensitivity of the fuzzy rule-based models was determined using different combinations of weights of the four input parameters in DRASTIC. It was found that variations in the weights of the input parameters and number of fuzzy sets influenced the location of the aquifer-vulnerability categories as well as the area within each fuzzy category. The fuzzy rule models tended to predict somewhat higher vulnerabilities of the Alluvial aquifer than the modified DRASTIC model. The fuzzy rule base that had the soil-leaching index (S) as the highest weight was chosen as the best fuzzy rule model in predicting potential contamination by pesticides of the aquifer. In general, the fuzzy rule models tended to overestimate the vulnerability of the aquifer in the study area. 相似文献
3.
With continued population growth and increasing use of fresh groundwater resources, protection of this valuable resource is critical. A cost effective means to assess risk of groundwater contamination potential will provide a useful tool to protect these resources. Integrating geospatial methods offers a means to quantify the risk of contaminant potential in cost effective and spatially explicit ways. This research was designed to compare the ability of intrinsic (DRASTIC) and specific (Attenuation Factor; AF) vulnerability models to indicate groundwater vulnerability areas by comparing model results to the presence of pesticides from groundwater sample datasets. A logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between the environmental variables and the presence or absence of pesticides within regions of varying vulnerability. According to the DRASTIC model, more than 20% of the study area is very highly vulnerable. Approximately 30% is very highly vulnerable according to the AF model. When groundwater concentrations of individual pesticides were compared to model predictions, the results were mixed. Model predictability improved when concentrations of the group of similar pesticides were compared to model results. Compared to the DRASTIC model, the AF model more accurately predicts the distribution of the number of contaminated wells within each vulnerability class. 相似文献
4.
Contamination of groundwater has become a major concern in recent years. Since testing of water quality of all domestic and irrigation wells within large watersheds is not economically feasible, one frequently used monitoring strategy is to develop contamination potential maps of groundwater, and then prioritize those wells located in the potentially highly contaminated areas for testing of contaminants. However, generation of contamination potential maps based on groundwater sensitivity and vulnerability is not an easy task due inherent uncertainty. Therefore, the overall goal of this research is to improve the methodology for the generation of contamination potential maps by using detailed landuse/pesticide and soil structure information in conjunction with selected parameters from the DRASTIC model. The specific objectives of this study are (i) to incorporate GIS, GPS, remote sensing and the fuzzy rule-based model to generate groundwater sensitivity maps, and (ii) compare the results of our new methodologies with the modified DRASTIC Index (DI) and field water quality data. In this study, three different models were developed (viz. DIfuzz, VIfuzz and VIfuzz_ped) and were compared to the DI. Once the preliminary fuzzy logic-based (DIfuzz) was generated using selected parameters from DI, the methodology was further refined through VIfuzz and VIfuzz_ped models that incorporated landuse/pesticide application and soil structure information, respectively. This study was conducted in Woodruff County of the Mississippi Delta region of Arkansas. Water quality data for 55 wells were used to evaluate the contamination potential maps. The sensitivity map generated by VIfuzz_ped with soil structure showed significantly better coincidence results when compared with the field data. 相似文献
5.
As a prerequisite for groundwater protection and contamination control, evaluation of groundwater contamination risk was the extension of groundwater vulnerability assessment. Based on disaster theory and using shallow groundwater of the lower reaches of Liaohe River Plain as the study area, we built an evaluation index system and a contamination index model for groundwater contamination risks from the perspectives of intrinsic vulnerability, external stresses, and functional value. We used data acquisition technology (remote sensing) and spatial analysis technology (GIS) to calculate the value of groundwater contamination risks. The spatial distribution of hotspots was obtained by calculating G index. Results show that groundwater contamination is above a mid-level risk in most of the study area. Areas with extreme high risk account for 37.86%, areas with high risk 32.47%, areas with moderate risk 12.07%, areas with light risk 3.17%, and areas with slight risk 14.43%. Hotspots areas are mainly located in central Shenyang City, northwest of Xinmin City, Beizhen City and Liaozhong County. Coldspots are mainly in Panjin City, Yingkou City, Dashiqiao City, Dawa County and Panshan County. The results reflect the spatial distribution and mechanism of groundwater contamination risk in the study area and provide relative references for land use planning and groundwater resource protection in the lower reaches of the Liaohe River Plain. 相似文献
6.
不确定性条件下的下辽河平原地下水脆弱性评价及空间分布软区划 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
建立地下水脆弱性评价的DRASTICH模型,辨析各个参数的不确定性特征,采用随机模拟方法同时对随机性参数和模糊性参数模拟赋值。分别对模糊性参数和脆弱性指数统计值设立具有概率分布意义的置信水平和百分位,得到多重地下水脆弱性的指数区间,在此基础上,分别绘制地下水脆弱性的保守分布图和冒险分布图,并对研究区地下水脆弱性分布状况进行分析。结果表明：① 以模糊区间形式表示的地下水脆弱性评价结果,能反映多种不确定因素综合影响下的地下水脆弱性客观实际情况,可提供更多可靠性方面的信息;② 以软区划方式制作地下水脆弱性分布图,保留了不确定性客观存在的事实,可给予决策者更多参考信息和调整余地;③ 地下水脆弱性软区划分布图显示：保守分布的脆弱性程度总体要高于冒险分布,置信水平选择越高,冒险分布与保守分布的空间分布差异越接近,且与最大可能性分布情况越接近;④ 研究区地下水脆弱性分布具有明显的空间集聚现象,地下水高脆弱性区域主要集聚在下辽河平原中部和南部地区,低脆弱性区域一般分布在下辽河平原东、西两侧地区。 相似文献
7.
Comparative study of specific groundwater vulnerability of a karst aquifer in central Florida 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
The Floridan aquifer system (FAS) is known to be one of the most productive aquifer systems in the USA. With the FAS being a karst aquifer, it presents unique challenges to land use planners because of inherent vulnerabilities to contamination through direct connections between the aquifer and the surface. In this study a new Geographic Information Systems (GIS) -based index, the Karst Aquifer Vulnerability Index (KAVI), incorporates geologic layers used in intrinsic groundwater vulnerability models (GVMs) plus an epikarst layer specific to karst, with land use coverages to create a specific groundwater vulnerability model. The KAVI model was compared to another specific vulnerability model, the Susceptibility Index (SI). Tabulation of the percentage areas of vulnerability classes reveals major differences between the two models with SI suggesting greater vulnerability for the study area than KAVI. Validation of these two models found that KAVI vulnerability levels best reproduced spatially varying concentrations of nitrate in the aquifer. Sensitivity analysis, the application of a variation index and measuring the effective weights for each parameter included in KAVI confirmed the importance of closed depressions but also aquifer hydraulic conductivity. The inclusion of land use was justified; however, effective weight analysis determined its assigned weight was too high as used in the initial calculation of KAVI. 相似文献
8.
在GIS技术的支持下,以三峡库区忠县-石柱河段为研究区域(面积260.9km2,滑坡分布面积5.3km2),建立了地质、地形数据库等滑坡因子空间数据库和滑坡空间分布数据库(数据比例尺均为1∶10万);在进行滑坡影响因子敏感性分析的基础上;对双变量分析模型进行了改进应用,对滑坡影响定量因子采用滑坡种子网格数据驱动的分级新方法。在GIS系统中进行了滑坡危险度评价成果图制图,将评价结果分为很低、低、中等、高、很高5个等级,依次占研究区域19.9%、31.69%、27.95%、17.1%和3.6%。评价结果显示危险性高和很高的区域主要分布在长江两岸,这与实际的滑坡分布吻合。研究结果对在三峡库区推广应用、防灾减灾具有实际指导意义。 相似文献
9.
以下辽河平原浅层地下水为研究对象,将自然灾害风险理论引入地下水环境风险评价,从脆弱性、功能性、胁迫性、适应性4个方面选取指标,构建地下水环境风险评价指标体系和模型。运用GIS空间分析方法对地下水环境风险进行评价,并对风险值进行空间关联特征研究。结果表明：① 研究区内地下水环境中度以上风险区占整个研究区面积的63.12%,其中高风险区占6.79%,较高风险区占18.96%,中等风险区占37.37%;较低风险区占21.98%,低风险区占14.90%。② 地下水环境风险最高的地区主要位于下辽河平原中部的新民市东北部、灯塔市、辽中县西部、黑山县部分地区及凌海市东南部。③ 研究区内地下水环境风险呈现较高的正相关性,相似性高的区域主要分布在中东和中西部风险高值区,以及东北和东南部风险低值区。研究成果丰富了地下水环境风险理论,对下辽河平原地下水环境保护实践具有一定的理论和实践意义。 相似文献
10.
在系统分析月牙泉水文地质条件的基础上,通过野外示踪实验和地下水调查采样,结合地下水同位素研究和第四纪沉积学特征分析的方式,对区域地下水运移规律和泉域地下水径流特征进行了研究,对月牙泉地下水水化学特征及其成因进行了深入分析,对党河地表水人工回灌入渗后形成的新的地下水流与南部地下水双重补给月牙泉进行了进一步论证,并提出了该区域第四纪浅层含水层风力沉积、河流沉积成因和地下水流速之间的关系：风积砂含水层为月牙泉域地下水快速径流提供了良好的径流条件,使泉湖水与周边地下水快速循环,月牙泉周边地下水水-盐循环均衡,是月牙泉淡水湖形成的重要因素之一。 相似文献
11.
塔里木盆地南缘地下水脆弱性评价 总被引：22，自引：8，他引：14
干旱区地下水脆弱性是地下水系统本身固有的不稳定属性,是系统结构、功能状态在人类活动干扰及气候变化等自然因素作用下具有的敏感性、易变性和弹性的综合反映。可以以河川径流中冰雪融水比重、地表径流入渗占地下水补给比例、地下水补给强度、地表水的引用率等十项指标(IRRUDQELTS)进行定量评价。通过对塔里木盆地南缘地下水脆弱性评价,表明该区属地下水严重脆弱区,其脆弱程度远大于地下水开发利用程度较高的河西走廊,其中又以民丰县、皮山县为极端脆弱。 相似文献
12.
基于GIS的区县级暴雨洪涝风险评估方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
在全球变暖大背景下,极端灾害性天气事件频繁发生,其中以暴雨洪涝灾害表现最为明显。文章基于灾害系统理论及风险评估原理,利用基础地理数据、气象数据、社会经济数据、历史灾情数据等,分别从致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体易损性、防灾减灾能力4个评价指标,建立基于评价因子的暴雨洪涝风险评估模型,并指出区县级暴雨洪涝风险评估需要解决的重点问题包括数据空间化、气象数据的序列延长、参数的确定等。最后以暴雨洪涝多发地区福建省石狮市（县级市）为研究区,利用GIS技术生成100 m×100 m分辨率的致灾因子危险性空间分布图、孕灾环境敏感性空间分布图、承灾体易损性空间分布图、防灾减灾能力空间分布图、暴雨洪涝风险评估空间分布图。结果显示：风险最高地区主要位于湖滨街道和凤里街道;其次是祥芝镇东部和西部,灵秀镇大部份地区、蚶江镇中南部、宝盖镇中南部和锦尚镇大部分地区;风险较低的地区主要是蚶江镇北部、宝盖镇北部和永宁镇大部分地区。 相似文献
13.
Mohamed Yousif Takashi Oguchi Katsuro Anazawa Takeshi Ohba 《Natural Resources Research》2014,23(4):423-445
The present study demonstrates the potential of the geospatial information as well as isotopes and chemical analyses to elucidate the hydrogeological setting of the study area. The main objective of this research is to identify factors affecting the occurrence and quality of groundwater in the study area. The Ras Alam El Rum is the pilot area chosen in the northwestern coast of Egypt to evaluate the carbonate aquifer with emphasis on the Middle Miocene aquifer, which has been explored recently. The average of annual precipitation and surface runoff amounts were estimated to indicate possibility of groundwater recharge, where the water-bearing rocks are mainly fractured. The isotope data indicate that the groundwater was derived from rainwater, the recharge source is local precipitation, and no indication of seawater intrusion was recorded. The salinity of the groundwater is attributed to interaction between the water and aquifer rocks represented by limestone, dolomitic limestone, and marl. The mineral indices obtained from the geochemical model reveal that the groundwater is over-saturated with aragonite, calcite, dolomite, strontianite, and barite. The hydrogeological evaluation of the study area led to recommendations to determine of the suitable areas for exploration of the Middle Miocene aquifer and to protect groundwater from deterioration. 相似文献
14.
Sahoo Satiprasad Dhar Anirban Debsarkar Anupam Kar Amlanjyoti 《Natural Resources Research》2019,28(4):1461-1483
Any sustainable resource utilization plan requires evaluation of the present and future environmental impact. The present research focuses on future scenario generation of environmental vulnerability zones based on grey analytic hierarchy process (grey-AHP). Grey-AHP combines the advantages of grey clustering method and the classical analytic hierarchy process (AHP). Environmental vulnerability index (EVI) considers twenty-five natural, environmental and anthropogenic parameters, e.g. soil, geology, aspect, elevation, slope, rainfall, maximum and minimum temperature, normalized difference vegetation index, drainage density, groundwater recharge, groundwater level, groundwater potential, water yield, evapotranspiration, land use/land cover, soil moisture, sediment yield, water stress, water quality, storage capacity, land suitability, population density, road density and normalized difference built-up index. Nine futuristic parameters were used for EVI calculation from the Dynamic Conversion of Land-Use and its Effects, Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate 5 and Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The resulting maps were classified into three classes: “high”, “moderate” and “low”. The result shows that the upstream portion of the river basin comes under the high vulnerability zone for the years 2010 and 2030, 2050. The effectiveness of zonation approach was between “better” and “common” classes. Sensitivity analysis was performed for EVI. Field-based soil moisture point data were utilized for validation purpose. The resulting maps provide a guideline for planning of detailed hydrogeological studies.
相似文献15.
高温给城市人口健康和社会发展带来的脆弱性后果愈发严重,如何科学量化与评估城市高温人口脆弱性,为制定更具针对性的高温适应对策提供科学依据成为当前国际研究热点。在城市高温人口脆弱性分析框架基础上,以西安市为例,整合遥感影像、手机信令、POI、社会经济等多源数据,从高温暴露、敏感性、适应能力3个维度构建高温影响下人口脆弱性评估指标体系和脆弱性测度模型,揭示高温人口脆弱性等级分布特征和空间异质性,识别人口脆弱性空间地域及其致脆因子类型。结果表明：① 西安市高温暴露、敏感性和适应能力都表现出显著的空间集聚特征,且总体上均呈现出“中心-边缘”结构,即城市中心地区形成“高暴露、高敏感、高适应”,城市边缘表现为“低暴露、低敏感、低适应”。② 西安市人口脆弱性以低值和较低水平为主,脆弱性也具有显著的空间集聚性,脆弱性较高地区主要集中在城市三环以内,形成断续的“岛状”分布形态,脆弱性低值和较低值地区分布在城市边缘。③ 不同致脆类型的面积占比依次为综合主导型（37.3%）>高温暴露主导型（33.3%）>适应能力不足主导型（23.6%）>人口敏感主导型（5.8%）;高温暴露主导型广泛分布在城市中心、北部和西部等地,人口敏感主导型相对集中在城市中心偏南地区,适应能力不足主导型主要分布在城市边缘,综合主导型主要集中在城市南部,北部也有大量分散式分布。本研究可在城市高温人口脆弱性评估方法,城市高温人口脆弱性的减缓与治理等方面提供借鉴和启示。 相似文献
16.
以托木尔区域为研究区,从景观生态学的角度,结合生态环境特征,选取分离度、分维数倒数、破碎度、植被覆盖指数和土壤侵蚀指数作为评价指标,探讨各景观类型区域生态环境脆弱度的空间分异规律,并依据生态环境的脆弱度等级结果进行区划。结果表明：（1）依据研究区海拔、坡度值划定地貌特征区,包括极高山、高山边缘区,南北部中山区,红层地貌区和南北部低山丘陵区;（2）建设用地的分离度最大,各景观类型的分维数倒数值差别不大,低覆盖度草地破碎度、景观类型脆弱度最大;（3）托木尔区域生态环境脆弱度指数具有强烈的空间自相关性,是自然因素和人为因素共同作用的结果;（4）区域生态环境脆弱度指数空间表现为“北低南高”的趋势,自然因素是影响生态环境高脆弱度区域（7～9级）的主导干扰因素;人类活动与自然因素共同作用于生态环境中脆弱度区域（4～6级）;影响低脆弱度区域（1～3级）生态环境脆弱度的主要因素是人类活动;（5）根据研究区内生态环境脆弱度值,结合当地自然特征、社会经济发展现状,研究区可划分为保护区、限制开发区和可开发区,并对其实施差别化的政策管理与保护措施。 相似文献
17.
This paper argues for a multidisciplinary framework to assess the relationship between environmental processes and social sciences that can be adapted to any geographic location. This includes both physical (earthquake hazard) and human (social vulnerability) dimensions in the context of disaster risk reduction. Disasters varies drastically depending on the local context. Indeed, the probability of a natural disaster having more devastating effects in one place than in another depends on the local vulnerability components of the affected society (cultural, social and economic). Therefore, there is an important correlation between the potential risk and the social resistance and resilience of a specific place, thus the disaster response varies according to the social fabric. In this context, the evaluation of social vulnerability is a crucial point in order to understand the ability of a society (studied at individual, household or community level) to anticipate, cope with, resist and recover from the impact of natural disaster events. Within this framework, the paper discusses how it is possible to integrate social vulnerability into the seismic risk analysis in Italy. Specifically, socioeconomic indicators were used to assess and mapping social vulnerability index. Afterwards, a Geographic Information System (GIS) approach was applied to identify the spatial variability of social vulnerability to seismic hazard. Through the use of a risk matrix, the classes of a social vulnerability index map were combined with those of a seismic hazard map proposed by INGV (National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology). Finally, a qualitative social vulnerability exposure map to an earthquake hazard was produced, highlighting areas with high seismic and social vulnerability levels. Results suggest the importance of the integration of social vulnerability studies into seismic risk mitigation policies, emergency management and territorial planning to reduce the impact of disasters. 相似文献
18.
Mohammad M. M. Alsahli Ahmed M. AlHasem 《Geografisk tidskrift / udgivet af Bestyrelsen for Det Kongelige danske geografiske selskab》2016,116(1):56-70
Assessing coastal vulnerability to sea level rise (SLR) at local and regional scales is a fundamental step for designing successful long-term coastal management plans. This study was thus designed to assess Kuwait coastal vulnerability to SLR at four scenarios (.5, 1, 1.5 and 2 m). Potential inundated areas and the number of people at risk were estimated based on these SLR scenarios. A coastal vulnerability index (CVI) map of Kuwait was then computed based on the lowest scenario using eight parameters: elevation, coastal slope, geomorphology, distance to 20-m isobath, population, land use, cultural heritage and transportation. The geographic distribution of inundated areas at an SLR of .5 m revealed that the northern islands of Kuwait and coastal areas along Kuwait Bay would be highly impacted, whereas the coastal area near Shuaibah Port was the most influenced among the southern coasts. Most of the coastal area exhibited a moderate vulnerability to SLR, especially the northern islands. This study presented an initial vulnerability assessment for Kuwait coasts to SLR, which can be extended with more variables. The integrated remote sensing and geographic information system methodology demonstrated in this study can be applied in similar studies elsewhere. 相似文献
19.
海流兔河流域是毛乌素沙地的代表性流域,开展以流域为单元的研究,将为毛乌素沙地的流域水资源配置提供科学依据。通过系统分析海流兔河流域的含水层展布和地下水分布特征,创新性地将含水层厚度和地下水埋深的分区进行小波图像融合后,得到了新的水文地质参数分区。结果表明：海流兔河流域的第四系及白垩系为该区域的巨厚含水层系统,其中白垩系含水层由南向北逐渐增厚,整体上该流域地下水资源量丰富。克里金指数模型适用于海流兔河流域的地下水埋深插值,该模型得到的流域地下水埋深为0—43 m,其中地下水埋深3 m以上的区域占流域的主体部分。以Symlets小波函数作为离散小波变换的图像融合技术对海流兔河流域的水文地质参数分区具有较强的适用性。 相似文献
20.
Gobashy M. M. Metwally A. M. Abdelazeem M. Soliman K. S. Abdelhalim A. 《Natural Resources Research》2021,30(5):3355-3384
Geophysical and geological studies play a fundamental role in the strategic and sustainable utilization of natural resources, especially that of fossil groundwater, in arid regions. The geophysical exploration of shallow groundwater aquifers is common in arid regions. In this work, a feasibility study of future development plans in the Siwa Oasis, Egypt, was carried out. A land electric resistivity survey was conducted, and approximately 14 vertical electric soundings were measured covering the Siwa Oasis, northwestern desert, Egypt. A detailed surface geology study was also conducted to study the underground water aquifer. Digital filters were applied to the reduced to pole-available magnetic data covering the area. The normalized source strength transformation and tilt depth were calculated and applied to delineate the possible structures that may control the shallow and deep aquifers in the area. The integrated interpretation showed the presence of four main geoelectric layers forming the shallow section of the Siwa Oasis down to 220 m. These layers varied in their resistivity and rock constituents from very low (0.2 Ω m) to very high (6200 Ω m) values. The calculated hydraulic parameters showed that the uppermost central area and the eastern area were the most promising areas for the required water development. Finally, based on the integrated interpretation and the estimated shallow aquifer potentiality, a land use map for the Siwa Oasis was produced to assist future strategic development of the region.
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