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1.
The performance-based liquefaction potential analysis was carried out in the present study to estimate the liquefaction return
period for Bangalore, India, through a probabilistic approach. In this approach, the entire range of peak ground acceleration
(PGA) and earthquake magnitudes was used in the evaluation of liquefaction return period. The seismic hazard analysis for
the study area was done using probabilistic approach to evaluate the peak horizontal acceleration at bed rock level. Based
on the results of the multichannel analysis of surface wave, it was found that the study area belonged to site class D. The
PGA values for the study area were evaluated for site class D by considering the local site effects. The soil resistance for
the study area was characterized using the standard penetration test (SPT) values obtained from 450 boreholes. These SPT data
along with the PGA values obtained from the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis were used to evaluate the liquefaction return
period for the study area. The contour plot showing the spatial variation of factor of safety against liquefaction and the
corrected SPT values required for preventing liquefaction for a return period of 475 years at depths of 3 and 6 m are presented
in this paper. The entire process of liquefaction potential evaluation, starting from collection of earthquake data, identifying
the seismic sources, evaluation of seismic hazard and the assessment of liquefaction return period were carried out, and the
entire analysis was done based on the probabilistic approach. 相似文献
2.
This paper highlights the seismic microzonation carried out for a nuclear power plant site. Nuclear power plants are considered to be one of the most important and critical structures designed to withstand all natural disasters. Seismic microzonation is a process of demarcating a region into individual areas having different levels of various seismic hazards. This will help in identifying regions having high seismic hazard which is vital for engineering design and land-use planning. The main objective of this paper is to carry out the seismic microzonation of a nuclear power plant site situated in the east coast of South India, based on the spatial distribution of the hazard index value. The hazard index represents the consolidated effect of all major earthquake hazards and hazard influencing parameters. The present work will provide new directions for assessing the seismic hazards of new power plant sites in the country. Major seismic hazards considered for the evaluation of the hazard index are (1) intensity of ground shaking at bedrock, (2) site amplification, (3) liquefaction potential and (4) the predominant frequency of the earthquake motion at the surface. The intensity of ground shaking in terms of peak horizontal acceleration (PHA) was estimated for the study area using both deterministic and probabilistic approaches with logic tree methodology. The site characterization of the study area has been carried out using the multichannel analysis of surface waves test and available borehole data. One-dimensional ground response analysis was carried out at major locations within the study area for evaluating PHA and spectral accelerations at the ground surface. Based on the standard penetration test data, deterministic as well as probabilistic liquefaction hazard analysis has been carried out for the entire study area. Finally, all the major earthquake hazards estimated above, and other significant parameters representing local geology were integrated using the analytic hierarchy process and hazard index map for the study area was prepared. Maps showing the spatial variation of seismic hazards (intensity of ground shaking, liquefaction potential and predominant frequency) and hazard index are presented in this work. 相似文献
3.
Gökhan Saygili 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2017,11(2):197-207
The conventional liquefaction potential assessment methods (also known as simplified methods) profoundly rely on empirical correlations based on observations from case histories. A probabilistic framework is developed to incorporate uncertainties in the earthquake ground motion prediction, the cyclic resistance prediction, and the cyclic demand prediction. The results of a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, site response analyses, and liquefaction potential analyses are convolved to derive a relationship for the annual probability and return period of liquefaction. The random field spatial model is employed to quantify the spatial uncertainty associated with the in-situ measurements of geotechnical material. 相似文献
4.
This article describes a new performance-based approach for evaluating the return period of seismic soil liquefaction based on standard penetration test (SPT) and cone penetration test (CPT) data. The conventional liquefaction evaluation methods consider a single acceleration level and magnitude and these approaches fail to take into account the uncertainty in earthquake loading. The seismic hazard analysis based on the probabilistic method clearly shows that a particular acceleration value is being contributed by different magnitudes with varying probability. In the new method presented in this article, the entire range of ground shaking and the entire range of earthquake magnitude are considered and the liquefaction return period is evaluated based on the SPT and CPT data. This article explains the performance-based methodology for the liquefaction analysis – starting from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) for the evaluation of seismic hazard and the performance-based method to evaluate the liquefaction return period. A case study has been done for Bangalore, India, based on SPT data and converted CPT values. The comparison of results obtained from both the methods have been presented. In an area of 220 km2 in Bangalore city, the site class was assessed based on large number of borehole data and 58 Multi-channel analysis of surface wave survey. Using the site class and peak acceleration at rock depth from PSHA, the peak ground acceleration at the ground surface was estimated using probabilistic approach. The liquefaction analysis was done based on 450 borehole data obtained in the study area. The results of CPT match well with the results obtained from similar analysis with SPT data. 相似文献
5.
Zhenming Wang 《Journal of Earth System Science》2008,117(2):749
Microzonation is an effort to evaluate and map potential hazards found in an area, urban area in particular, that could be induced by strong ground shaking during an earthquake. These hazards include: ground motion amplification, liquefaction, and slope failure. The microzonation maps, depicting ground-motion amplification, liquefaction, and landslide potentials, can be produced if the ground motion on bedrock (input) and the site conditions are known. These maps, in combination with ground-motion hazard maps (on bedrock), can be used to develop a variety of hazard mitigation strategies such as seismic risk assessment, emergency response and preparedness, and land-use planning. However, these maps have certain limitations that result from the nature of regional mapping, data limitations, generalization, and computer modeling. These microzonations show that when strong ground shaking occurs, damage is more likely to occur, or be more severe, in the higher hazard areas. The zones shown on the hazard maps should not serve as a substitute for site-specific evaluations. 相似文献
6.
作为地震灾害评估的理论基础,地震动力学主要研究与地震活动有关的断裂机制、破裂过程、震源辐射和由此而引起的地震波的传播及地面运动规律。对地震力学、震源辐射和能量释放等经典理论问题进行了系统研究。在此基础上,应用最新的定量地震学研究方法,以逻辑树的形式综合地震、地质和大地测量资料,提供了不同构造环境和断裂机制条件下地震灾害评估的概率分析和确定性分析实例。用于震源分析的典型构造类型包括板内地壳震源层、地壳活动断层及其速率、板块俯冲界面和俯冲板片。由于输入模型中不确定因素的存在,如输入参数的随机性和科学分析方法本身的不确定性,对分析结果的不确定性需审慎对待。通常对不同的模型或参量,包括地面衰减模型,进行加权平均可较为合理地减小结果的偏差：概率分析和确定性分析方法的结合亦为可取之有效途径。 相似文献
7.
India is prone to earthquake hazard; almost 65 % area falls in high to very high seismic zones, as per the seismic zoning map of the country. The Himalaya and the Indo-Gangetic plains are particularly vulnerable to high seismic hazard. Any major earthquake in Himalaya can cause severe destruction and multiple fatalities in urban centers located in the vicinity. Seismically induced ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction are the two main factors responsible for severe damage to the structures, especially, built on soft sedimentary environment. These are essentially governed by the size of earthquake, epicentral distance and geology of the area. Besides, lithology of the strata, i.e., sediment type, grain size and their distribution, thickness, lateral discontinuity and ground water depth, play an important role in determining the nature and degree of destruction. There has been significant advancement in our understanding and assessment of these two phenomena. However, data from past earthquakes provide valuable information which help in better estimation of ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction for evaluation of seismic risk in future and planning the mitigation strategies. In this paper, we present the case studies of past three large Indian earthquakes, i.e., 1803 Uttaranchal earthquake (Mw 7.5); 1934 Bihar–Nepal earthquake (Mw 8.1) and 2001 Bhuj earthquake (Mw 7.7) and discuss the role of soft sediments particularly, alluvial deposits in relation to the damage pattern due to amplified ground motions and soil liquefaction induced by the events. The results presented in the paper are mainly focused around the sites located on the river banks and experienced major destruction during these events. It is observed that the soft sedimentary sites located even far from earthquake epicenter, with low water saturation, experienced high ground motion amplification; while the sites with high saturation level have undergone soil liquefaction. We also discuss the need of intensifying studies related to ground motion amplification and soil liquefaction in India as these are the important inputs for detailed seismic hazard estimation. 相似文献
8.
Shafiee Ali Kamalian Mohsen Jafari Mohammad Kazem Hamzehloo Hossein 《Natural Hazards》2011,59(1):481-505
An important step in effectively reducing seismic risk and the vulnerability of a city located in an earthquake prone area
is to conduct a ground motion microzonation study for the desired return period. The International Institute of Earthquake
Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) initiated a number of seismic microzonation projects for Iran. This paper presents the
steps followed by IIEES in ground motion microzonation. IIEES performs both probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard
analysis. IIEES uses his own fault map for seismotectonic studies and develops modulus and damping curves for the soils in
the study area. The experience of ground motion microzonation shows that in almost all cases, the estimated 475-year peak
ground acceleration (PGA) values are higher than the PGA proposed by the Iranian seismic code. Although ground motion microzonation
in Iran has some shortcomings, IIEES is making new improvement. This includes development in deterministic seismic hazard
analysis, two-dimensional and three-dimensional modelling of basin and topographical effects, using microtremor measurements
to find shear-wave velocity profiles in high-density urban areas and providing maps for spectral acceleration in the study
area. 相似文献
9.
The study was implemented in the framework of the DFNK (Deutsches Forschungsnetz Naturkatastrophen – German Research Network
Natural Disasters) project. The area around the city of Cologne was chosen as an object for assessment of seismic hazard and
risk. A comprehensive geo-database was compiled for the area, which allows using a computational approach for analysis of
site amplification functions and probable surface effects. Taking into account peculiarities of the local soil conditions,
the analysis of site effects included both amplification of ground motions and liquefaction potential. These phenomena, having
different nature, are interrelated and can considerably contribute to seismic hazard. This paper presents some results obtained
on the base of computational analysis using geo-modeling. 相似文献
10.
上海市地处长江三角洲前缘,黄浦江和苏州河交汇区域,特殊的地理环境与沉积环境导致浅部砂层广泛发育。随着城市建设的不断推进,上海城市区域范围的砂土地震液化风险评价成为亟待研究的课题。文章基于上海市工程钻孔数据,结合地震地面运动加速度分布与标准贯入试验,建立区域性地震液化危险性评价模型,对上海市进行了地震液化危险性评价。研究认为当发生50年超越概率10%的地震条件下,上海市陆域面积的66.0%将不会产生地震砂土液化灾害,21.8%的陆域面积仅发生轻微液化,只有崇明、横沙、长兴三岛,黄浦江及苏州河两岸地震液化等级达到中等甚至严重,占全市陆域面积12.3%;50年超越概率2%的地震条件下,随着峰值地面运动加速度整体升高,全市范围内轻微—严重液化区域明显增多,可能发生地震液化的总面积达到全市陆域面积46.25%。上海市存在砂土地震液化的危险性,但是发生概率较低。研究认为,目前的抗震设计规范中上海市的设防烈度偏高,可能导致不必要的建设成本。同时研究中的不同超越概率下的地震液化危险性评价结果为上海市工程建设相关标准的合理化改进的提供了建议和参考。 相似文献
11.
Intermediate-depth earthquakes in the Vrancea region occur in response to stress generation due to descending lithosphere
beneath the southeastern Carpathians. In this article, tectonic stress and seismicity are analyzed in the region on the basis
of a vast body of observations. We show a correlation between the location of intermediate-depth earthquakes and the predicted
localization of maximum shear stress in the lithosphere. A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) for the region is
presented in terms of various ground motion parameters on the utilization of Fourier amplitude spectra used in engineering
practice and risk assessment (peak ground acceleration, response spectra amplitude, and seismic intensity). We review the
PSHA carried out in the region, and present new PSHA results for the eastern and southern parts of Romania. Our seismic hazard
assessment is based on the information about the features of earthquake ground motion excitation, seismic wave propagation
(attenuation), and site effect in the region. Spectral models and characteristics of site-response on earthquake ground motions
are obtained from the regional ground motion data including several hundred records of small and large earthquakes. Results
of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment are consistent with the features of observed earthquake effects in the southeastern
Carpathians and show that geological factors play an important part in the distribution of the earthquake ground motion parameters. 相似文献
12.
The hazard assessment of potential earthquake-induced landslides is an important aspect of the study of earthquake-induced landslides. In this study, we assessed the hazard of potential earthquake-induced landslides in Huaxian County with a new hazard assessment method. This method is based on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis and the Newmark cumulative displacement assessment model. The model considers a comprehensive suite of information, including the seismic activities and engineering geological conditions in the study area, and simulates the uncertainty of the intensity parameters of the engineering geological rock groups using the Monte Carlo method. Unlike previous assessment studies on ground motions with a given exceedance probability level, the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides obtained by the method presented in this study allows for the possibility of earthquake-induced landslides in different parts of the study area in the future. The assessment of the hazard of earthquake-induced landslides in this study showed good agreement with the historical distribution of earthquake-induced landslides. This indicates that the assessment properly reflects the macroscopic rules for the development of earthquake-induced landslides in the study area, and can provide a reference framework for the management of the risk of earthquake-induced landslides and land planning. 相似文献
13.
Northeast India is one of the most highly seismically active regions in the world with more than seven earthquakes on an average per year of magnitude 5.0 and above. Reliable seismic hazard assessment could provide the necessary design inputs for earthquake resistant design of structures in this region. In this study, deterministic as well as probabilistic methods have been attempted for seismic hazard assessment of Tripura and Mizoram states at bedrock level condition. An updated earthquake catalogue was collected from various national and international seismological agencies for the period from 1731 to 2011. The homogenization, declustering and data completeness analysis of events have been carried out before hazard evaluation. Seismicity parameters have been estimated using G–R relationship for each source zone. Based on the seismicity, tectonic features and fault rupture mechanism, this region was divided into six major subzones. Region specific correlations were used for magnitude conversion for homogenization of earthquake size. Ground motion equations (Atkinson and Boore 2003; Gupta 2010) were validated with the observed PGA (peak ground acceleration) values before use in the hazard evaluation. In this study, the hazard is estimated using linear sources, identified in and around the study area. Results are presented in the form of PGA using both DSHA (deterministic seismic hazard analysis) and PSHA (probabilistic seismic hazard analysis) with 2 and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years, and spectral acceleration (T = 0. 2 s, 1.0 s) for both the states (2% probability of exceedance in 50 years). The results are important to provide inputs for planning risk reduction strategies, for developing risk acceptance criteria and financial analysis for possible damages in the study area with a comprehensive analysis and higher resolution hazard mapping. 相似文献
14.
In conventional seismic hazard analysis, uniform distribution over area and magnitude range is assumed for the evaluation of source seismicity which is not able to capture peculiar characteristic of near-fault ground motion well. For near-field hazard analysis, two important factors need to be considered: (1) rupture directivity effects and (2) occurrence of scenario characteristic ruptures in the nearby sources. This study proposed a simple framework to consider these two effects by modifying the predictions from the conventional ground motion model based on pulse occurrence probability and adjustment of the magnitude frequency distribution to account for the rupture characteristic of the fault. The results of proposed approach are compared with those of deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. The results indicate that characteristic earthquake and directivity consideration both have significant effects on seismic hazard analysis estimates. The implemented approach leads to results close to deterministic seismic hazard analysis in the short period ranges (T < 1.0 s) and follows probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results in the long period ranges (T > 1.0 s). Finally, seismic hazard maps based on the proposed method could be developed and compared with other methods. 相似文献
15.
The objective of this study is to evaluate the seismic hazard at the Esfarayen-Bojnurd railway using the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) method. This method was carried out based on a recent data set to take into account the historic seismicity and updated instrumental seismicity. A homogenous earthquake catalogue was compiled and a proposed seismic sources model was presented. Attenuation equations that recently recommended by experts and developed based upon earthquake data obtained from tectonic environments similar to those in and around the studied area were weighted and used for assessment of seismic hazard in the frame of logic tree approach. Considering a grid of 1.2 × 1.2 km covering the study area, ground acceleration for every node was calculated. Hazard maps at bedrock conditions were produced for peak ground acceleration, in addition to return periods of 74, 475 and 2475 years. 相似文献
16.
17.
Mahmoud Hamlaoui K. Vanneste K. Baddari L. Louail B. Vleminckx A. Demdoum 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(11):238
This work involves updating the evaluation of seismic hazard in Northeast Algeria by a probabilistic approach. This reassessment attempts to resolve inconsistencies between seismic zoning in regional building codes and is further motivated by the need to refine the input data that are used to evaluate seismic hazard scenarios. We adopted a seismotectonic model that accounts for differences in interpretations of regional seismicity. We then performed a probabilistic assessment of regional seismic hazard in Northeast Algeria. Based on a homogeneous earthquake catalog and geological and seismotectonic data gathered in the first part of the study, a seismotectonic zoning map was created and seven risk areas were identified. For each area, peak ground acceleration hazard maps were produced. Details of the calculations are provided, including hazard curves at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.33, 0.5, 1.0, and 2.0 s and uniform hazard spectra at urban locations in the area, including Sétif, Constantine, Kherrata, Bejaia, and Jijel. 相似文献
18.
Shafiq Ur Rehman Muhammad Khalid Asif Ali Abd El-aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2013,6(9):3481-3492
Gwadar City is located at the coastline of Pakistan. The city is currently in a phase of development, which is expected to become a future economic hub for Pakistan. This has led us to choose Gwadar for seismic hazard evaluation. Seismic hazard analysis for Gwadar is carried out using deterministic and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis techniques. The present study will help in sustainable development of a future large city and economic hub for Pakistan on ways of coping from a major threat of earthquake hazard. In deterministic seismic hazard analysis, line sources were identified close to Gwadar. Based on the analysis of maximum magnitude and closest distance (worse conditions), Makran subduction zone was identified out of all the line sources with earthquake potential of 8.2 at a distance of 30 km. This yielded a peak ground acceleration value of 0.38 g for Gwadar City. In second phase, probabilistic seismic hazard analysis technique with the area source modeling was adopted to acquire results at different return periods. For this purpose, seismic data were collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and International Seismological Center (2010) databases for development of a comprehensive data catalog. The a and b values were obtained using regression analysis for each source zone, and probabilistic analysis yielded the results of 0.34 g for a return period of 500 years. As per building codes of Pakistan, areas or cities with ground acceleration greater than 0.32 g are considered in seismic zone 4, and both deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis place the city in seismic zone 4. These values correspond to rock site with shear wave velocity of 760 m/s. 相似文献
19.
Doklady Earth Sciences - A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment is applied, for the first time in the case of Sakhalin Island, using a regional ground motion prediction equation in terms of the... 相似文献
20.
《Geomechanics and Geoengineering》2013,8(1):57-68
Both seismic and tsunami hazards design criteria are essential input to the rehabilitation and long-term development of city of Banda Aceh Post Sumatra 2004 (M w=9.3) disaster. A case study to develop design criteria for future disaster mitigation of the area is presented. The pilot study consists of probabilistic seismic and tsunami hazard analysis. Results of the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis indicates that peak ground acceleration at baserock for 10 and 2% probability of exceedance in 50 years is 0.3 and 0.55 g, respectively. The analysis also provides spectral values at short (T=0.2 s) and long period (T=1.0 s) motions. Some non-linear time-domain earthquake response analyses for soft, medium, and hard site-class were conducted to recommend design response spectra for each site-class. In addition, tsunami inundation maps generated from probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis were developed through tsunami wave propagation analysis and run-up numerical modeling associated with its probability of tsunamigenic earthquake source potential. Both the seismic and tsunami hazard curve and design criteria are recommended as contribution of this study for design criteria, as part of the disaster mitigation effort in the development process of the city. The methodology developed herein could be applied to other seismic and tsunami disaster potential areas. 相似文献