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1.
Yuanyuan Fang Denise L. Mauzerall Junfeng Liu Arlene M. Fiore Larry W. Horowitz 《Climatic change》2013,121(2):239-253
Climate change modulates surface concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3), indirectly affecting premature mortality attributed to air pollution. We estimate the change in global premature mortality and years of life lost (YLL) associated with changes in surface O3 and PM2.5 over the 21st century as a result of climate change. We use a global coupled chemistry-climate model to simulate current and future climate and the effect of changing climate on air quality. Epidemiological concentration-response relationships are applied to estimate resulting changes in premature mortality and YLL. The effect of climate change on air quality is isolated by holding emissions of air pollutants constant while allowing climate to evolve over the 21st century according to a moderate projection of greenhouse gas emissions (A1B scenario). Resulting changes in 21st century climate alone lead to an increase in simulated PM2.5 concentrations globally, and to higher (lower) O3 concentrations over populated (remote) regions. Global annual premature mortality associated with chronic exposure to PM2.5 increases by approximately 100 thousand deaths (95 % confidence interval, CI, of 66–130 thousand) with corresponding YLL increasing by nearly 900 thousand (95 % CI, 576–1,128 thousand) years. The annual premature mortality due to respiratory disease associated with chronic O3 exposure increases by +6,300 deaths (95 % CI, 1,600–10,400). This climate penalty indicates that stronger emission controls will be needed in the future to meet current air quality standards and to avoid higher health risks associated with climate change induced worsening of air quality over populated regions. 相似文献
2.
Kenneth G. Manton 《Climatic change》1987,11(1-2):179-210
Much interest has been recently focused on forecasting population health changes such as population aging and life expectancy increases at advanced ages, qualitative changes in health and survival, changes in federal reimbursement systems, and the need to forecast for long-range capital investment in specialized health facilities. Recent efforts at forecasting health and morbidity changes in the population are reviewed in this paper and the recent lack of methodological innovation in health forecasting strategies is examined. Two forecasting models—stochastic compartmental systems and mixed multivariate continuous state—discrete state processes—are described. We show how these models can be applied to health forecasting using existing data, how they can be used in a complementary fashion to improve health projections made from any one type of data, and how the mixed multivariate stochastic process model can be used to evaluate assumptions made in the compartment modeling approach. 相似文献
3.
Affluence drives the global displacement of land use 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Jan Weinzettel Edgar G. Hertwich Glen P. Peters Kjartan Steen-Olsen Alessandro Galli 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):433-438
Increasing affluence is often postulated as a main driver for the human footprint on biologically productive areas, identified among the main causes of biodiversity loss, but causal relationships are obscured by international trade. Here, we trace the use of land and ocean area through international supply chains to final consumption, modeling agricultural, food, and forestry products on a high level of resolution while also including the land requirements of manufactured goods and services. In 2004, high-income countries required more biologically productive land per capita than low-income countries, but this connection could only be identified when land used to produce internationally traded products was taken into account, because higher-income countries tend to displace a larger fraction of land use. The equivalent land and ocean area footprint of nations increased by a third for each doubling of income, with all variables analyzed on a per capita basis. This increase came largely from imports, which increased proportionally to income. Export depended mostly on the capacity of countries to produce useful biomass, the biocapacity. Our analysis clearly shows that countries with a high biocapacity per capita tend to spare more land for nature. Biocapacity per capita can be increased through more intensive production or by reducing population density. The net displacement of land use from high-income to low-income countries amounted to 6% of the global land demand, even though high-income countries had more land available per capita than low-income countries. In particular, Europe and Japan placed high pressure on ecosystems in lower-income countries. 相似文献
4.
Climate change and critical thresholds in China’s food security 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Identification of ‘critical thresholds’ of temperature increase is an essential task for inform policy decisions on establishing
greenhouse gas (GHG) emission targets. We use the A2 (medium-high GHG emission pathway) and B2 (medium-low) climate change
scenarios produced by the Regional Climate Model PRECIS, the crop model – CERES, and socio-economic scenarios described by
IPCC SRES, to simulate the average yield changes per hectare of three main grain crops (rice, wheat, and maize) at 50 km ×
50 km scale. The threshold of food production to temperature increases was analyzed based on the relationship between yield
changes and temperature rise, and then food security was discussed corresponding to each IPCC SRES scenario. The results show
that without the CO2 fertilization effect in the analysis, the yield per hectare for the three crops would fall consistently as temperature rises
beyond 2.5 ^C; when the CO2 fertilization effect was included in the simulation, there were no adverse impacts on China’s food production under the projected
range of temperature rise (0.9–3.9 ^C). A critical threshold of temperature increase was not found for food production. When the socio-economic scenarios, agricultural
technology development and international trade were incorporated in the analysis, China’s internal food production would meet
a critical threshold of basic demand (300 kg/capita) while it would not under A2 (no CO2 fertilization); whereas basic food demand would be satisfied under both A2 and B2, and would even meet a higher food demand
threshold required to sustain economic growth (400 kg/capita) under B2, when CO2 fertilization was considered. 相似文献
5.
全球气候变暖已经成为不争的事实,人们逐渐认识到依靠大量能源消费的生产方式、不惜牺牲环境的经济增长模式、无节制大量消费的生活方式应该从根本上得到改变.城市作为工业、建筑、交通的载体,也是高能耗、高碳排放的主要源头,需要改变传统城市发展的模式来应对全球变暖的挑战,发展低碳城市被认为是未来最有希望的经济发展动力.首先采用IPCC能源转换模型对南京市碳排量进行测算,选取南京的人口数量、GDP、人均GDP、人口城市化率、产业结构多元化系数（ESD）、能源消费结构多元化系数（ESCD）和能源强度作为对比数列,以南京CO2排放总量作为参考数列,运用灰色系统关联模型进行关联度计算并排序.结果显示,南京市碳排放量关联度从大到小依次为ESD、人口数量、城市化率、ECSD、能源强度、人均GDP、GDP,这与南京工业生产因化石能源的大量使用对城市碳排放量贡献占总排量一半以上的分析结果相吻合.最后详细分析各指标对南京建设低碳城市的影响,并提出对策建议. 相似文献
6.
Guo Zhang Jianduo Li Xinyao Rong Yufei Xin Jian Li Haoming Chen Jingzhi Su Lijuan Hua 《Acta Meteorologica Sinica》2018,32(6):862-880
The Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (CAMS) has been devoted to developing a climate system model (CSM) to meet demand for climate simulation and prediction for the East Asian region. In this study, we evaluated the performance of CAMS-CSM in regard to sensible heat flux (H), latent heat flux (LE), surface temperature, soil moisture, and snow depth, focusing on the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project experiment, with the aim of participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6. We systematically assessed the simulation results achieved by CAMS-CSM for these variables against various reference products and ground observations, including the FLUXNET model tree ensembles H and LE data, Climate Prediction Center soil moisture data, snow depth climatology data, and Chinese ground observations of snow depth and winter surface temperature. We compared these results with data from the ECMWF Interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Our results indicated that CAMS-CSM simulations were better than or comparable to ERAInterim reanalysis for snow depth and winter surface temperature at regional scales, but slightly worse when simulating total column soil moisture. The root-mean-square differences of H in CAMS-CSM were all greater than those from the ERA-Interim reanalysis, but less than or comparable to those from GLDAS. The spatial correlations for H in CAMS-CSM were the lowest in nearly all regions, except for North America. CAMS-CSM LE produced the lowest bias in Siberia, North America, and South America, but with the lowest spatial correlation coefficients. Therefore, there are still scopes for improving H and LE simulations in CAMS-CSM, particularly for LE. 相似文献
7.
为研究石家庄市采暖期与非采暖期大气细颗粒物(PM2.5)中多环芳烃(Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons,PAHs)的污染特征及其人群健康效应,采集了石家庄市2017年1月—2019年12月每月10—16日PM2.5样品,使用气相色谱-质谱联用仪测定PM2.5中优先控制的16种多环芳烃的浓度,分析采暖期与非采暖期PM2.5中多环芳烃的污染水平及组成特征,利用特征比值法和主成分分析法对其来源进行定性判断,并采用健康风险评估模型以及预期寿命损失评估多环芳烃对人群的健康风险。结果表明：(1)PM2.5及其中多环芳烃浓度平均水平在采暖期分别为106.00μg/m3、44.17 ng/m3,非采暖期分别为73.00μg/m3、40.17 ng/m3。16种多环芳烃中含量最高的是苯并[a]芘,其次为苯并[k]荧蒽、苯并[b]荧蒽、?。多环芳烃单体环数越高其致癌作用越强,不同环... 相似文献
8.
基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)构建出一个GDP综合预测模型,并且考虑十九大全面建成小康社会与实现共同富裕的精神与国家关于技术、资本、劳动力等方面的区域平衡发展战略调整模型的参数,计算了2016—2050年中国分省的GDP总量与人均GDP,进一步通过计算省区间人均GDP的基尼系数来分析省区协调发展的水平。研究结果表明,在考虑省区协调发展时,各省区在2016—2050年间的GDP总量与人均GDP的差距逐渐缩小,省区间人均GDP的基尼系数将从2015年的0.219下降到2030年的0.176和2050年的0.137,未来区域间发展不均衡的态势在实现经济稳步增长同时可以得到缓解。 相似文献
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10.
Despite recent advancements in global population well-being and food security, climate change threatens to undermine child nutritional health, particularly for marginalized populations in tropical low- and middle-income countries. South Asia is at particular risk for climate-driven undernutrition due to a combination of historical weather exposures, existing nutritional deficits, and a lack of sanitation access. Previous studies have established that precipitation extremes increase rates of undernutrition in this region, but the existing literature lacks adequate consideration of temperature anomalies, mediating social factors, and the developmentally-relevant timing of exposure. We combine high-resolution temperature and precipitation data with large-sample survey data on household demographics and child anthropometry, using an approach that incorporates three key developmental periods and a rigorous fixed effects design. We find that precipitation extremes in the first year of life significantly decrease children’s height-for-age (HAZ) in South Asia. The detrimental effects of extreme precipitation are especially concentrated in under-resourced households, such as those lacking access to proper sanitation and education for women, while anomalous heat is particularly harmful for children in Pakistan, though it tends to benefit children in some demographic groups. These results indicate that nutritional status in South Asia is highly responsive to climate exposures, and that addressing sanitation infrastructure and other development priorities is a pathway towards reducing this vulnerability. 相似文献
11.
吉林省城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
由于中国社会经济统计资料中均缺乏历年采暖能源消费数据,在分析气候变化对采暖能耗的影响时,始终存在着一个瓶颈。为此,提出了一种城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法,这种方法把气候变化因素与相关的社会经济因素（如人口、人均居住面积等）结合在一起,较直观地反映了气候变化对城市住宅采暖耗能的影响。以地处高纬的吉林省为例,利用吉林省历年城镇人口、城镇人均居住面积、采暖度日数以及单位面积采暖耗煤量指标,建立了吉林省历年采暖气候耗能距平序列。结果表明：相对于1971-2000年30 a平均气候状况,吉林省2001/2002年的采暖期理论上因气候偏暖可以节约35.98万t标准煤,而2000/2001年采暖期因气候偏冷需要增加15.5万t标准煤。 相似文献
12.
由于中国社会经济统计资料中均缺乏历年采暖能源消费数据,在分析气候变化对采暖能耗的影响时,始终存在着一个瓶颈。为此,提出了一种城市住宅采暖气候耗能距平序列的建立方法,这种方法把气候变化因素与相关的社会经济因素（如人口、人均居住面积等）结合在一起,较直观地反映了气候变化对城市住宅采暖耗能的影响。以地处高纬的吉林省为例,利用吉林省历年城镇人口、城镇人均居住面积、采暖度日数以及单位面积采暖耗煤量指标,建立了吉林省历年采暖气候耗能距平序列。结果表明：相对于1971-2000年30 a平均气候状况,吉林省2001/2002年的采暖期理论上因气候偏暖可以节约35.98万t标准煤,而2000/2001年采暖期因气候偏冷需要增加15.5万t标准煤。 相似文献
13.
采用1985-2012年数据,利用时间序列分析方法,建立了刻画我国出国留学人数变动的模型ARIMA（2,2,2）,得到较好的预测效果.同时研究了出国留学人数与我国城镇居民人均消费性支出之间的关系,建立了相应的模型,并进行了Granger 因果关系检验.结果表明：出国留学生数的对数每增加1%,城镇居民人均消费性支出的对数将增加近0.06%. 相似文献
14.
One strand of research relates the magnitude of severe weather disasters to climatic and human development factors; another highlights dramatic growth in catastrophe losses. However, there have been few attempts to put the two strands together. Here we use an explicit modeling framework to determine the contribution of climate variability relative to human factors in reported catastrophe losses. We then examine how future climate change can be expected to affect losses from natural disasters. Simultaneous regression models are constructed from three equations in which the dependent variables are U.S. flood loss, U.S. hurricane loss and U.S. catastrophe loss. Then two kinds of simulation under two climate change scenarios explore how climate change would affect losses. The climate change scenarios respectively project 13.5% and 21.5% increases in annual precipitation. The first simulation increases only the mean value of annual precipitation; the second simulation assumes that the mean and standard deviation of annual precipitation change in the same proportion. Results show that the growth in reported losses from weather-related natural disasters is due mainly to three socioeconomic factors: inflation, population growth and growth in per capita real wealth. However, weather variables such as precipitation and the number of hurricanes per period also clearly affect losses. The three stage least squares (3SLS) simultaneous equation model shows that a 1% increase in annual precipitation would enlarge catastrophe loss by as much as 2.8%. These findings are suggestive as planning signals to decision makers. 相似文献
15.
减少粮食浪费不仅关乎粮食安全,而且对于温室气体减排与生态环境保护也至关重要.本文基于生命周期理论,构建了餐厅食物消费模型;然后通过对北京某风味餐厅的现场调研,量化评估了餐厅每人次产生的平均温室气体排放量,并对餐厅剩余食物产生的原因以及通过减少餐厅食物剩余带来的温室气体减排潜力进行了系统分析.研究结果表明,一个中等规模的... 相似文献
16.
It has long been accepted that the relative affluence and technological efficiency of nations are important contributors to their rate of emissions. These associations have, in turn, driven questions about the feasibility of mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions through incremental transition to “business as usual” policy structures in variant social contexts. Here, I explore the extent to which the historical context of colonial relations impacts the feasibility of a nation mitigating emissions per capita, emissions per dollar, and total emissions under current development logics. To do so I examine the structure of variation for 152 nations during the 1960–2018 period. Subsequently, I examine how being situated as an extractive colony in the past serves to moderate the association of GDP per capita with CO 2 emissions per capita, CO 2 emissions per dollar, and total CO 2 emissions in the present. I find that roughly 11% of cross-national variation in CO 2 emissions per capita and CO 2 emissions per dollar, as well as nearly 6% of variation in total CO 2 emissions between 1960 and 2018 is attributable to having been historically subjected to extractive colonial processes. These findings suggest that mitigation of emissions through transition of “business as usual” policy structures appears significantly less feasible for nations positioned as extractive colonies in the past, relative to all others. 相似文献
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18.
苏明山 《气候变化研究进展》2017,13(1):69-75
度量不同参与者已使用的温室气体排放空间是温室气体排放核算的重要问题。从人际公平视角,基于人年均温室气体排放,本文提出了温室气体排放空间使用比率及其计算公式,利用142 个国家1950-2013 年温室气体排放和人口数据进行了具体计算,并根据计算结果对这些国家进行了排序和分类。计算结果表明,美国温室气体排放空间使用比率在3.33以上,占用的排放空间远高于142 个国家的平均水平;中国处于0.50~0.70,明显低于平均水平;印度在0.30 以下,远低于平均水平。本研究表明,温室气体排放空间使用比率可支持决策者和社会各方了解参与者使用温室气体排放空间的程度,也有助于提高排放信息的透明度。 相似文献
19.
A core question still remains after the Paris Agreement: who receives how much of the remaining CO2 budget (resource/burden/effort sharing), so that the increase in the global average temperature is kept to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels? If converging per capita emissions serve as a possible answer to this question, the discussion focuses primarily on the approach ‘Contraction and Convergence’ (C&C). The Regensburg Model now offers a further option for the mathematical implementation of converging per capita emissions. The authors identify features common to C&C and differences from C&C. They show that, of the convergence models they examined, the Regensburg Model is the most favourable option for industrialized countries.Policy relevanceIn politics, the concept of converging per capita emissions is often accepted at the abstract level. Civil society in particular can then take politicians at their word wherever they take values calculated using the Regensburg Model as points of reference; then prosperous developed countries in particular whose nationally determined contributions do not come up even to these reference values will find it difficult to justify their contributions. 相似文献
20.
The degradation of air quality, an environmental consequence of anthropogenic activities, poses a challenge to human health. However, the corresponding control measures incur additional costs. This study presents an analysis of the health and socioeconomic benefits of air quality control measures and climate change mitigation. Multidisciplinary modelling was used for PM2.5 and ozone distribution to analyze the co-benefits of end-of-pipe measures and electrification as well as their period-specific impacts on human health and the economy. The results indicated that the long-term impacts of end-of-pipe technologies and electrification in Japan's residential, building, and transportation sectors could reduce premature deaths, caused by PM2.5 and ozone pollution, by 65,500 annually from 2010 to 2050. These technologies could save a per capita work hour loss of 3.64 h and avoid an economic loss of 5.43 billion USD by 2050. This study predicted climate actions would enable western Japan to benefit from PM2.5 control measures, whereas the entire country would benefit from ozone pollution reduction. 相似文献