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1.
We apply the general concept of seismic risk analysis based on morphostructural analysis of the territory, pattern recognition of earthquake-prone nodes, and the Unified Scaling Law for Earthquakes, USLE, in another seismic region of Russia to the west from Lake Baikal, i.e., Altai–Sayan Region. The USLE generalizes the empirical Gutenberg–Richter relationship making use of apparently fractal distribution of earthquake sources of different size: \( \log_{10} N\left( {M,L} \right)\, = \,A\, + \,B \cdot \left( {5\, - \,M} \right)\, + \,C \cdot \log_{10} L, \) where N (M, L) is the expected annual number of earthquakes of a certain magnitude M within an seismically prone area of linear dimension L. The local estimates of A, B, and C allow determination of the expected maximum credible magnitude in a given time interval and the associated spread around ground shaking parameters (e.g., peak ground acceleration, PGA, or macroseismic intensity, I0). Compilation of the corresponding seismic hazard map of Altai–Sayan Region and its rigorous testing against the available seismic evidences in the past is used to model regional maps of specific earthquake risks for population, cities, and infrastructures.  相似文献   

2.
In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future.  相似文献   

3.
An instrumental earthquake catalog covering the time span between 1903 and 2007 and for the area bounded by 32°N–38°N and 35°E–43°E has been compiled in this research. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness (M c ) with 3.5. Least squares and statistical probability Gumbel’s techniques with different approaches have been applied on the instrumental events in order to assess the average recurrence time periods for different earthquake magnitudes. The constants a and b of Gutenberg-Richter and the average recurrence times have been computed firstly for the study area and secondly for the central and northern parts of Dead Sea fault system. The different statistical computations using Knopoff and Kagan formalism are generally in agreement and suggest an average recurrence time of 203 years for an earthquake of magnitude 7 for the region. The occurrence of large well-documented historical earthquakes in Lebanon and western Syria, the existence of active fault segments, the absence of large earthquakes during the study period, the increasing number of the low-magnitude earthquakes, and the continued accumulation of the strain since 1900 indicate therefore the probability of an earthquake occurrence of a large magnitude. This should be permanently taken into consideration in seismic hazard assessment on the local and regional scales.  相似文献   

4.
We analyze previously published geodetic data and intensity values for the M s = 8.1 Shillong (1897), M s = 7.8 Kangra (1905), and M s = 8.2 Nepal/Bihar (1934) earthquakes to investigate the rupture zones of these earthquakes as well as the amplification of ground motions throughout the Punjab, Ganges and Brahmaputra valleys. For each earthquake we subtract the observed MSK intensities from a synthetic intensity derived from an inferred planar rupture model of the earthquake, combined with an attenuation function derived from instrumentally recorded earthquakes. The resulting residuals are contoured to identify regions of anomalous intensity caused primarily by local site effects. Observations indicative of liquefaction are treated separately from other indications of shaking severity lest they inflate inferred residual shaking estimates. Despite this precaution we find that intensites are 1–3 units higher near the major rivers, as well as at the edges of the Ganges basin. We find evidence for a post-critical Moho reflection from the 1897 and 1905 earthquakes that raises intensities 1–2 units at distances of the order of 150 km from the rupture zone, and we find that the 1905 earthquake triggered a substantial subsequent earthquake at Dehra Dun, at a distance of approximately 150 km. Four or more M = 8 earthquakes are apparently overdue in the region based on seismic moment summation in the past 500 years. Results from the current study permit anticipated intensities in these future earthquakes to be refined to incorporate site effects derived from dense macroseismic data.  相似文献   

5.
The earthquake hazard parameters and earthquake occurrence probabilities are computed for the different regions of the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) using Bayesian method. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for a time period between 1900 and 2015. Only two historical earthquakes (1766, M S = 7. 3 and 1897, M S = 7. 0) are included in Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the near future since no large earthquake has been observed for the instrumental period. In order to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters for next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years, M max (maximum regional magnitude), β value, λ (seismic activity or density) are computed for the different regions of NAFZ. The computed M max values are changed between 7.11 and 7.89. While the highest magnitude value is calculated in the Region 9 related to Tokat-Erzincan, the lowest value in the Region 10 including the eastern of Erzincan. The “quantiles” of “apparent” and “true” magnitudes of future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % of the 10 different seismic source regions. The region between Tokat and Erzincan has earthquake hazard level according to the determined parameters. In this region the expected maximum earthquake size is 7.8 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years. While the regional M max value of Marmara Region is computed as 7.61, expected maximum earthquake size is 7.37 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years.  相似文献   

6.
Seismic hazard analysis of the northwest Himalayan belt was carried out by using extreme value theory (EVT). The rate of seismicity (a value) and recurrence intervals with the given earthquake magnitude (b value) was calculated from the observed data using Gutenberg–Richter Law. The statistical evaluation of 12,125 events from 1902 to 2017 shows the increasing trend in their inter-arrival times. The frequency–magnitude relation exhibits a linear downslope trend with negative slope of 0.8277 and positive intercept of 4.6977. The empirical results showed that the annual risk probability of high magnitude earthquake M?≥?7.7 in 50 years is 88% with recurrence period of 47 years, probability of M?≤?7.5 in 50 years is 97% with recurrence period of 27 years, and probability of M?≤?6.5 in 50 years is 100% with recurrence period of 4 years. Kashmir valley, located in the NW Himalaya, encompasses a peculiar tectonic and structural setup. The patterns of the present and historical seismicity records of the valley suggest a long-term strain accumulation along NNW and SSE extensions with the decline in the seismic gap, posing a potential threat of earthquakes in the future. The Kashmir valley is characterized by the typical lithological, tectono-geomorphic, geotechnical, hydrogeological and socioeconomic settings that augment the earthquake vulnerability associated with the seismicity of the region. The cumulative impact of the various influencing parameters therefore exacerbates the seismic hazard risk of the valley to future earthquake events.  相似文献   

7.
The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter’s frequency–magnitude relation and the p-value of the modified Omori law, which describes the decay rate of aftershock activity, were investigated for more than 500 aftershocks in the Aksehir-Afyon graben (AAG) following the 15 December 2000 Sultandagi–Aksehir and the 3 February 2002 Çay–Eber and Çobanlar earthquakes. We used the Kandilli Observatory’s catalog, which contains records of aftershocks with magnitudes ≥2.5. For the Çobanlar earthquake, the estimated b-values for three aftershock sequences are in the range 0.34 ≤  b ≤ 2.85, with the exception of the one that occurred during the first hour (4.77), while the obtained p-values are in the range 0.44 ≤ p ≤ 1.77. The aftershocks of the Sultandagi earthquake have a high p-value, indicating fast decay of the aftershock activity. A regular increase of b can be observed, with b < 1.0 after 0.208 days for the Çay–Eber earthquake. A systematic and similar increase and decrease pattern exists for the b- and p-values of the Çobanlar earthquakes during the first 5 days.  相似文献   

8.
This paper presents a seismic hazard evaluation and develops an earthquake catalogue for the Constantine region over the period from 1357 to 2014. The study contributes to the improvement of seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazards in Northeast Algeria. A regional seismicity analysis was conducted based on reliable earthquake data obtained from various agencies (CRAAG, IGN, USGS and ISC). All magnitudes (M l, m b) and intensities (I 0, I MM, I MSK and I EMS) were converted to M s magnitudes using the appropriate relationships. Earthquake hazard maps were created for the Constantine region. These maps were estimated in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 s. Five seismogenic zones are proposed. This new method differs from the conventional method because it incorporates earthquake magnitude uncertainty and mixed datasets containing large historical events and recent data. The method can be used to estimate the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, annual activity rate λ(M) of an event and maximum possible magnitude M max using incomplete and heterogeneous data files. In addition, an earthquake is considered a Poisson with an annual activity rate λ and with a doubly truncated exponential earthquake magnitude distribution. Map of seismic hazard and an earthquake catalogue, graphs and maps were created using geographic information systems (GIS), the Z-map code version 6 and Crisis software 2012.  相似文献   

9.
Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events.  相似文献   

10.
We estimate the energetic and spatial characteristics of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region using a variety of seismic and statistical parameters, as a first step in a detailed investigation of regional seismic hazard. We divide the region into five seismotectonic regions, comprising the most important tectonic domains in the studied area: the Moroccan Meseta, the Rif, the Tell, the High Plateau, and the Atlas. Characteristic seismic hazard parameters, including the Gutenberg–Richter b-value, mean seismic activity rate, and maximum possible earthquake magnitude, were computed using an extension of the Aki–Utsu procedure for incomplete earthquake catalogs for each domain, based on recent earthquake catalogs compiled for northern Morocco and northern Algeria. Gutenberg–Richter b-values for each zone were initially estimated using the approach of Weichert (Bull Seismol Soc Am 70:1337–1346, 1980): the estimated b-values are 1.04 ± 0.04, 0.93 ± 0.10, 0.72 ± 0.03, 0.87 ± 0.02, and 0.77 ± 0.02 for the Atlas, Meseta, High Plateau, Rif, and Tell seismogenic zones, respectively. The fractal dimension D 2 was also estimated for each zone. From the ratio D 2/b, it appears that the Tell and Rif zones, with ratios of 2.09 and 2.12, respectively, have the highest potential earthquake hazard in the region. The Gutenberg–Richter relationship analysis allows us to derive that in the Tell and Rif, the number of earthquake with magnitude above Mw 4.0, since 1925 normalized to decade and to square cell with 100-km sides is equal to 2.6 and 1.91, respectively. This study provides the first detailed information about the potential seismicity of these large domains, including maximum regional magnitudes, characteristics of spatial clustering, and distribution of seismic energy release.  相似文献   

11.
This paper presents the first boundary equations describing the relationship between earthquake parameters (magnitude M S and macroseismic intensity I P at the observation point on the MSK-64 scale) and clastic dikes (having maximal thickness m cd , visible height h cd , and the index of manifestation intensity of dikes in the cross section I cd ). As was expected, the maximal size of dikes grows with an increase in the earthquake magnitude and macroseismic intensity. Analysis of the dependences showed that it is better to use all three parameters for estimation of the minimal threshold M S or I P from clastic dikes, and, in the absence of data on seismogenic rupture, the maximal calculated value should be used. Some limitations in application and the advantages of the equations obtained are discussed with respect to characterizing earthquakes of the pre-instrumental period.  相似文献   

12.
This paper discusses a newly developed high-quality integrated dataset of shallow earthquake ground motions that occurred in Iran, from 1976 to 2013. A total of 860 three-component strong motion records are processed from 183 earthquake events, moment magnitudes 5.0?≤?M w ?≤?7.4, and rupture distances of R RUP  ≤ 120 km. Strong motion data from Iran having special tectonic features and shallow earthquakes with depths less than 35 km are included. This paper presents a thorough procedure used to collect and to generate a database following the Next-Generation Attenuation-West research projects. This database can be used in the development and ranking of ground motion models and for seismological and engineering hazard and risk analyses. Unprocessed strong motion records are obtained from the Iranian Strong Motion Network (ISMN). The time series collected were thoroughly examined through several rounds of quality reviews. The newly generated database includes the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudo-spectral acceleration for the 5% damped with periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The database also includes ground motion information and source characterization and parameters. This study is the near-source compiled ground motion database that can be used for Iran, and it is consistent with standard worldwide databases.  相似文献   

13.
A seismic hazard map of Kanpur city has been developed considering the region-specific seismotectonic parameters within a 500-km radius by deterministic and probabilistic approaches. The maximum probable earthquake magnitude (M max) for each seismic source has been estimated by considering the regional rupture characteristics method and has been compared with the maximum magnitude observed \(\left ({M_{\max }^{\text {obs}}}\right )\), \(M_{\max }^{\text {obs}} +0.5\) and Kijko method. The best suitable ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) were selected from 27 applicable GMPEs based on the ‘efficacy test’. Furthermore, different weight factors were assigned to different M max values and the selected GMPE to calculate the final hazard value. Peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration at 0.2 and 1 s were estimated and mapped for worst-case scenario and 2 and 10% probability of exceedance for 50 years. Peak ground acceleration (PGA) showed a variation from 0.04 to 0.36 g for DSHA, from 0.02 to 0.32 g and 0.092 to 0.1525 g for 2 and 10% probability in 50 years, respectively. A normalised site-specific design spectrum has been developed considering three vulnerable sources based on deaggregation at the city center and the results are compared with the recent 2011 Sikkim and 2015 Nepal earthquakes, and the Indian seismic code IS 1893.  相似文献   

14.
The excitation of methanol in the absence of external radiation is analyzed, and LTE methods for probing interstellar gas considered. It is shown that rotation diagrams correctly estimate the gas kinetic temperature only if they are constructed using lines whose upper levels are located in the same K-ladders, such as the J0?J?1E lines at 157 GHz, the J1?J0E lines at 165 GHz, and the J2?J1E lines at 25 GHz. The gas density must be no less than 107 cm?3. Rotation diagrams constructed from lines with different K values for their upper levels (e.g., 2K?1K at 96 GHz, 3K?2K at 145 GHz, 5K?4K at 241 GHz) significantly underestimate the temperature, but enable estimation of the density. In addition, diagrams based on the 2K?1K lines can be used to estimate the methanol column density within a factor of about two to five. It is suggested that rotation diagrams should be used in the following manner. First, two rotation diagrams should be constructed, one from the lines at 96, 145, or 241 GHz, and another from the lines at 157, 165, or 25 GHz. The former diagram is used to estimate the gas density. If the density is about 107 cm?3 or higher, the latter diagram reproduces the temperature fairly well. If the density is around 106 cm?3, the temperature obtained from the latter diagram should be multiplied by a factor of 1.5–2. If the density is about 105 cm?3 or lower, then the latter diagram yields a temperature that is lower than the kinetic temperature by a factor of three or more, and should be used only as a lower limit for the kinetic temperature. The errors in the methanol column density determined from the integrated intensity of a single line can be more than an order of magnitude, even when the gas temperature is well known. However, if the J0?(J ? 1)0E lines, as well as the J1?(J ? 1)1A+ or A? lines are used, the relative error in the column density is no more than a factor of a few.  相似文献   

15.
A comprehensive analytical as well as numerical treatment of seismological, geological, geomorphological and geotechnical concepts has been implemented through microzonation projects in the northeast Indian provinces of Sikkim Himalaya and Guwahati city, representing cases of contrasting geological backgrounds — a hilly terrain and a predominantly alluvial basin respectively. The estimated maximum earthquakes in the underlying seismic source zones, demarcated in the broad northeast Indian region, implicates scenario earthquakes of M W 8.3 and 8.7 to the respective study regions for deterministic seismic hazard assessments. The microzonation approach as undertaken in the present analyses involves multi-criteria seismic hazard evaluation through thematic integration of contributing factors. The geomorphological themes for Sikkim Himalaya include surface geology, soil cover, slope, rock outcrop and landslide integrated to achieve geological hazard distribution. Seismological themes, namely surface consistent peak ground acceleration and predominant frequency were, thereafter, overlaid on and added with the geological hazard distribution to obtain the seismic hazard microzonation map of the Sikkim Himalaya. On the other hand, the microzonation study of Guwahati city accounts for eight themes — geological and geomorphological, basement or bedrock, landuse, landslide, factor of safety for soil stability, shear wave velocity, predominant frequency, and surface consistent peak ground acceleration. The five broad qualitative hazard classifications — ‘low’, ‘moderate’, ‘high’, ‘moderate high’ and ‘very high’ could be applied in both the cases, albeit with different implications to peak ground acceleration variations. These developed hazard maps offer better representation of the local specific seismic hazard variation in the terrain.  相似文献   

16.
It is difficult to protect structures and foundation from collapse after an earthquake hit; however studies have been undertaken in order to limit future earthquake hazards. Therefore, the main notion of the present paper is to study an alternative technique to control the foundation structure deformation under seismic loading using in-filled trench with expanded polystyrene (EPS) geofoam. A series of plane strain two-dimension module for a 10-story building and subjected to different earthquakes are run using Plaxis 2D. The numerical analysis is primary concerned with studying the effect of using wave barrier of EPS geofoam adjacent to structure on improving the structure stability as a passive screening technique. The wave barrier geometry, sand density and earthquake acceleration are investigated. The results showed the effectiveness of such trench in controlling the lateral deformation and decreasing the angular distortion, β, of a structure. To get the positive effect of such barrier, it should be installed in dense sand with optimum geometry of b?=?0.25d and d?=?0.5B. The installation of wave barrier—with sufficient depth and width adjacent to structure—can significantly reduce the amplitude reduction ratio to as much as 10%. It is also found that the angular distortion, β, of the foundation is changed from 0.04 to 0.0018 due to barrier effect. The adopted technique can modify the building damage from severe to moderate and slight damage with lesser deformation.  相似文献   

17.
Soil erodibility is one of the most important factors used in spatial soil erosion risk assessment. Soil information derived from soil map is used to generate soil erodibility factor map. Soil maps are not available at appropriate scale. In general, soil maps at small scale are used in deriving soil erodibility map that largely generalized spatial variability and it largely ignores the spatial variability since soil map units are discrete polygons. The present study was attempted to generate soil erodibilty map using terrain indices derived from DTM and surface soil sample data. Soil variability in the hilly landscape is largely controlled by topography represented by DTM. The CartoDEM (30 m) was used to derive terrain indices such as terrain wetness index (TWI), stream power index (SPI), sediment transport index (STI) and slope parameters. A total of 95 surface soil samples were collected to compute soil erodibility factor (K) values. The K values ranged from 0.23 to 0.81 t ha?1R?1 in the watershed. Correlation analysis among K-factor and terrain parameters showed highest correlation of soil erodibilty with TWI (r 2= 0.561) followed by slope (r 2= 0.33). A multiple linear regression model was developed to derive soil erodibilty using terrain parameters. A set of 20 soil sample points were used to assess the accuracy of the model. The coefficient of determination (r 2) and RMSE were computed to be 0.76 and 0.07 t ha?1R?1 respectively. The proposed methodology is quite useful in generating soil erodibilty factor map using digital elevation model (DEM) for any hilly terrain areas. The equation/model need to be established for the particular hilly terrain under the study. The developed model was used to generate spatial soil erodibility factor (K) map of the watershed in the lower Himalayan range.  相似文献   

18.
Radon and mercury concentrations were measured in 10 fault gas profiles in Generalized Haiyuan Fault. This paper aims to predetermine the potential seismic risk in different segments of the fault zone from the perspective of geochemistry. The background value and anomaly threshold were adopted and synthesized using the maximum value method and average method to calculate concentration intensity values of radon and mercury. Fault soil gas mercury and radon concentrations show a decreasing gradient from NW to SE indicating evident segmentation. Higher values are mostly distributed in the Maomao Mountain–Tiger Mountain fault and Jingtai area. Combined with the seismotectonic background of historical and recent earthquakes and the spatial distribution characteristics of b-values, the fault soil gas concentration intensity shows a close correlation with earthquake activity within the fault zone. Concentrations of fault gas are higher and the b-value lower in areas of strong seismic activity, and regions with weak seismic activity correspond to lower fault gas concentrations and higher b-values. It is thus considered that the Jingtai area may be more dangerous than the other areas. This paper could provide vital background information for earthquake prediction in the Generalized Haiyuan Fault Zone.  相似文献   

19.
The seismic anisotropy of the mantle is studied based on the data of S and ScS waves from earthquakes occurred in the mantle transition zone over the period of 2007–2013 and recorded by seismic stations in the continental margin of Asia, on Sakhalin Island, and in the southern part of the Kamchatka Peninsula. The measurements of the azimuths of polarization of the fast S and ScS waves in the continental margin of Asia show that they are predominantly oriented in the E–SE directions. Based on the distribution of the shear wave splitting parameters, the symmetry of the medium can be described in terms of a transversely isotropic model with a horizontal symmetry axis and may correspond to horizontal flow in the upper mantle beneath the Amur Plate. The fast azimuths of polarization of ScS wave, which were determined to be of N–NE directions in the northern area of Sakhalin Island and in the continental part of Asia, may correspond to an inclined flow under the conditions of oblique subduction and complex geometry of the downgoing Pacific Plate. In the south of the Kamchatka Peninsula, the S- and ScS-wave azimuths of polarization from the M 8.4 Sea of Okhotsk earthquake are determined to be oriented along the direction of the Pacific Plate motion. The fast-S-wave azimuths of polarization from the aftershocks of the Sea of Okhotsk earthquake and from other large events of 2008–2009 are determined to be nearly parallel to the motion trend of the Pacific Plate, but orthogonal to it for the events of 2008–2009. On the basis of the distribution of azimuths of polarization of the fast S waves, the symmetry of the medium can be described in terms of a transversely isotropic model with the symmetry axis inclined orthogonally to the plane of downgoing plate and oriented westward orthogonally to the trench strike.  相似文献   

20.
The goal of the paper is to reveal the hierarchical block structure in the Tuan Giao area (Northwest Vietnam) and, on that base, to identify areas prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5. Four large geoblocks of the second rank have been delineated on the basis of the joint analysis of geological, geophysical, geomorphic, and remote sensing data. The second rank geoblocks have been divided into smaller sub-blocks of the third rank. The recent geodynamics of the geoblocks have been characterized using geomorphic, seismological, gravity, and GPS data.The system of the delineated geoblocks is viewed as the Geodynamic Blocks model. The areas prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5 have been identified using the pattern recognition algorithm CORA-3. The objects of the recognition were defined as circular areas, where boundaries of the geoblocks intersect each other. The recognition results confirm high seismic potential of the study region and provide information on potential earthquake sources for seismic hazard assessment: a number of boundary intersections have been identified as areas prone to earthquakes with M ≥ 5, where events of such magnitude have not been recorded up to date. Mordern geothermal activity and anomalies of dissolved methane (up to 10000 nL/L), helium and hydrogen in the hot mineral water springs prove high permeability of the study area and its active seismo-tectonic state.  相似文献   

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