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1.
Empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings exposed to slow-moving landslides at medium and large scales 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Dario Peduto Settimio Ferlisi Gianfranco Nicodemo Diego Reale Giovanni Pisciotta Giovanni Gullà 《Landslides》2017,14(6):1993-2007
Slow-moving landslides yearly induce huge economic losses worldwide in terms of damage to facilities and interruption of human activities. Within the landslide risk management framework, the consequence analysis is a key step entailing procedures mainly based on identifying and quantifying the exposed elements, defining an intensity criterion and assessing the expected losses. This paper presents a two-scale (medium and large) procedure for vulnerability assessment of buildings located in areas affected by slow-moving landslides. Their intensity derives from Differential Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (DInSAR) satellite data analysis, which in the last decade proved to be capable of providing cost-effective long-term displacement archives. The analyses carried out on two study areas of southern Italy (one per each of the addressed scales) lead to the generation, as an absolute novelty, of both empirical fragility and vulnerability curves for buildings in slow-moving landslide-affected areas. These curves, once further validated, can be valuably used as tools for consequence forecasting purposes and, more in general, for planning the most suitable slow-moving landslide risk mitigation strategies. 相似文献
2.
Landslides as secondary seismic effects are causing some patterns of soil failure that are often considered among the most destructive ones. In fact, the impact from triggered landslides has sometimes exceeded damage directly related to strong shaking and fault rupture. The objective of this research study is landslide hazard and risk assessment considering different water saturation and earthquake scenarios, for a selected area in a sub-urban hilly part of Skopje—the capital of Macedonia. The final product is represented by digital maps of expected permanent displacements for a defined earthquake scenario, in different water saturation conditions of the instable soil layer. Qualitative landslide risk assessment is performed taking into consideration the exposure map of the habitants and local road of the area. As to the target area, it can be concluded that it has the potential for instability that, under certain scenarios, could result in economic and social damage (vulnerability of individual houses, vulnerability of infrastructure and alike). The results from this study referring to potentially affected population and infrastructure present solid base for preventive mitigation activities for reducing the consequences of geotechnical hazards in Skopje City associated with earthquakes. 相似文献
3.
A procedure for landslide risk assessment is presented. The underlying hypothesis is that statistical relationships between
past landslide occurrences and conditioning variables can be used to develop landslide susceptibility, hazard and risk models.
The latter require also data on past damages. Landslides occurred during the last 50 years and subsequent damages were analysed.
Landslide susceptibility models were obtained by means of Spatial Data Analysis techniques and independently validated. Scenarios
defined on the basis of past landslide frequency and magnitude were used to transform susceptibility into quantitative hazard
models. To assess vulnerability, a detailed inventory of exposed elements (infrastructures, buildings, land resources) was
carried out. Vulnerability values (0–1) were obtained by comparing damages experienced in the past by each type of element
with its actual value. Quantitative risk models, with a monetary meaning, were obtained for each element by integrating landslide
hazard and vulnerability models. Landslide risk models showing the expected losses for the next 50 years were thus obtained
for the different scenarios. Risk values obtained are not precise predictions of future losses but rather a means to identify
areas where damages are likely to be greater and require priority for mitigation actions. 相似文献
4.
Physically based dynamic run-out modelling for quantitative debris flow risk assessment: a case study in Tresenda,northern Italy 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Byron Quan Luna Jan Blahut Corrado Camera Cees van Westen Tiziana Apuani Victor Jetten Simone Sterlacchini 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2014,72(3):645-661
Quantitative landslide risk assessment requires information about the temporal, spatial and intensity probability of hazardous processes both regarding their initiation as well as their run-out. This is followed by an estimation of the physical consequences inflicted by the hazard, preferentially quantified in monetary values. For that purpose, deterministic hazard modelling has to be coupled with information about the value of the elements at risk and their vulnerability. Dynamic run-out models for debris flows are able to determine physical outputs (extension, depths, velocities, impact pressures) and to determine the zones where the elements at risk can suffer an impact. These results can then be applied for vulnerability and risk calculations. Debris flow risk has been assessed in the area of Tresenda in the Valtellina Valley (Lombardy Region, northern Italy). Three quantitative hazard scenarios for different return periods were prepared using available rainfall and geotechnical data. The numerical model FLO-2D was applied for the simulation of the debris flow propagation. The modelled hazard scenarios were consequently overlaid with the elements at risk, represented as building footprints. The expected physical damage to the buildings was estimated using vulnerability functions based on flow depth and impact pressure. A qualitative correlation between physical vulnerability and human losses was also proposed. To assess the uncertainties inherent in the analysis, six risk curves were obtained based on the maximum, average and minimum values and direct economic losses to the buildings were estimated, in the range of 0.25–7.7 million €, depending on the hazard scenario and vulnerability curve used. 相似文献
5.
Quantitative hazard and risk assessment for slow-moving landslides from Persistent Scatterer Interferometry 总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2
Preparation of reliable landslide hazard and risk maps is crucial for hazard mitigation and risk management. In recent years, various approaches have been developed for quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. However, possibly due to the lack of new data, very few of these hazard and risk maps were updated after their first generation. In this study, aiming at an ongoing assessment, a novel approach for updating landslide hazard and risk maps based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) is introduced. The study was performed in the Arno River basin (central Italy) where most mass movements are slow-moving landslides which are properly within the detection precision of PSI point targets. In the Arno River basin, the preliminary hazard and risk assessment was performed by Catani et al. (Landslides 2:329–342, 2005) using datasets prior to 2002. In this study, the previous hazard and risk maps were updated using PSI point targets processed from 4 years (2003–2006) of RADARSAT images. Landslide hazard and risk maps for five temporal predictions of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30 years were updated with the exposure of losses estimated in Euro (€). In particular, the result shows that in 30 years a potential loss of approximate €3.22 billion is expected due to these slow-moving landslides detected by PSI point targets. 相似文献
6.
Owing to fragile geo-morphology, extreme climatic conditions, and densely populated settlements and rapid development activities, West Java Province is the most landslide hazardous area in Indonesia. So, a landslide risk map for this province bears a great importance such as for land-use planning. It is however widely accepted that landslide risk analysis is often difficult because of the difficulties involved in landslide hazard assessment and estimation of consequences of future landslide events. For instance, lack of multi-temporal inventory map or records of triggering events is often a major problem in landslide hazard mapping. In this study, we propose a simple technique for converting a landslide susceptibility map into a landslide hazard map, which we have employed for landslide risk analysis in one ideally hazardous part of volcanic mountains in West Java Province. The susceptibility analysis was carried out through correlation between past landslides and eight spatial parameters related to instability, i.e. slope, aspect, relative relief, distance to river, geological units, soil type, land use and distance to road. The obtained susceptibility map was validated using cross-time technique, and was collaborated with the frequency-area statistics to respond to ‘when landslide will occur’ and ‘how large it will be’. As for the judgment of the consequences of future landslides, expert opinion was used considering available literature and characteristic of the study area. We have only considered economic loss in terms of physical damage of buildings, roads and agricultural lands for the landslide risk analysis. From this study, we understand the following: (1) the hazard map obtained from conversion of the susceptibility map gives spatial probability and the area of an expected landslide will be greater than 500m2 in the next 2 years, (2) the landslide risk map shows that 24% of the total area is in high risk; 30% in moderate risk; 45% in low risk and no risk covers only 1% of the total area, and (3) the loss will be high in agricultural lands, while it will be low in the road structures and buildings. 相似文献
7.
Al Hoceima is one of the most seismic active regions in north of Morocco. It is demonstrated by the large seismic episodes reported in seismic catalogs and research studies. However, seismic risk is relatively high due to vulnerable buildings that are either old or don’t respect seismic standards. Our aim is to present a study about seismic risk and seismic scenarios for the city of Al Hoceima. The seismic vulnerability of the existing residential buildings was evaluated using the vulnerability index method (Risk-UE). It was chosen to be adapted and applied to the Moroccan constructions for its practicality and simple methodology. A visual inspection of 1102 buildings was carried out to assess the vulnerability factors. As for seismic hazard, it was evaluated in terms of macroseismic intensity for two scenarios (a deterministic and probabilistic scenario). The maps of seismic risk are represented by direct damage on buildings, damage to population and economic cost. According to the results, the main vulnerability index of the city is equal to 0.49 and the seismic risk is estimated as Slight (main damage grade equal to 0.9 for the deterministic scenario and 0.7 for the probabilistic scenario). However, Moderate to heavy damage is expected in areas located in the newer extensions, in both the east and west of the city. Important economic losses and damage to the population are expected in these areas as well. The maps elaborated can be a potential guide to the decision making in the field of seismic risk prevention and mitigation strategies in Al Hoceima. 相似文献
8.
以雅砻江卡拉水电站为例,针对滑坡群风险在水电工程坝址比选时的量化评价问题,在考虑滑坡体危险性分析和易损性分析的基础上,引入滑坡体工程影响系数、重要性系数、距离模数、滑坡体状况系数4个指标参数,综合考虑滑坡体客观情况与人类活动的影响,建立以年期望损失为指标的水电工程滑坡风险评价体系。在以坝址安全风险指标、堵江引起发电量损失指标与清淤损失指标和涌浪破坏损失指标为标准的综合评价方法中,运用安全与经济相平衡原则,得出基于滑坡风险评价的坝址比选结果。经实例计算,采用改进后的评价方法可得同一量纲下的计算分析比常规方法更具可比性,综合考虑可为坝址比选提供依据。 相似文献
9.
Expected damage from displacement of slow-moving slides 总被引：10，自引：7，他引：3
Facilities such as buildings, highways, railways, bridges, dams and pipelines often are built on natural slopes where the
risk of landslides is not low. The vulnerability of these facilities to slow-moving slides has sometimes been underestimated,
although the velocity of some classes of slow slides is uncontrollable. More than 50 cases of slow slides were compiled from
the literature for this study. Some statistics about the movement trigger(s), the methods used to measure displacement, the
material forming the rupture surface and the type of the vulnerable facilities are presented. It is shown that the expected
degree of damage to urban settlements, highways, bridges and dams can be related to the slide velocity or accumulating displacement.
Buildings and residential houses may tolerate higher slide velocities and total displacements than other facilities before
experiencing serious damage. Movements as low as 100 mm may severely damage bridges, but such low rates may cause only moderate
damage to urban communities. The relationship between movement and the expected extent of damage should be useful to geotechnical
engineers who deal with different classes of slow slides and will help in the choice of appropriate mitigation measures based
on preliminary estimates of movement rates. 相似文献
10.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):391-400
The work presented in this paper is an outgrowth of a multi—year study at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania on Managing Catastrophic Risks. We focus on the role of homeowners and insurance companies in managing the hazard from earthquake risk. Specifically, we consider alternative earthquake disaster management strategies for a typical homeowner and a small insurance company in the Oakland, California region. These strategies involve the adoption of mitigation measures and the purchase of earthquake insurance by the homeowner and the purchase of an indemnity contract (e.g., excess—of—loss reinsurance) by the insurer. We focus on how uncertainty impacts these disaster management strategies. Specifically, we illustrate the impact of structural mitigation and risk—transfer mechanisms on the insurer's performance when there is uncertainty in the company's risk profile. This risk profile is captured through a loss exceedance probability (EP) curve, representing the probability that a certain level of monetary loss will be exceeded on an annual basis. Parameters considered in the sensitivity analysis that will shift the loss EP curve include: earthquake recurrence, ground motion attenuation, soil mapping schemes, and the exposure and vulnerability of the residential structures. The paper demonstrates how uncertainty in these parameters impacts the cost effectiveness of mitigation and reinsurance on the insurer's profitability and chances of insolvency, as well as the number of policies the insurer is willing to issue. 相似文献
11.
A deterministic seismic risk and monetary loss model is presented for the capital of Santorini volcanic Island, the town of Fira, on a building block scale. A local seismic source of M5.6 inferred from a recent volcano unrest in 2011–2012, detailed seismic vulnerability of 435 buildings and site conditions deduced from free-field ambient noise measurements were combined toward assessing the EMS-98 damage grade and its probability to occur. The seismic scenario yielded no damage or slight damage for 84% of the buildings, 16% of the constructions are expected to present moderate-to-heavy damage, while the economic loss amounts to 4 million euros. Although the model predicts low damage and direct economic loss, interaction with the touristic business activities might produce cascade side effects for the economy of the island and consequently Greece’s GDP, an important part of which emanates from Santorini. 相似文献
12.
Rockfall risk assessment to persons travelling in vehicles along a road: the case study of the Amalfi coastal road (southern Italy) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
The paper deals with the assessment of rockfall risk to persons travelling in vehicles along the SS163 road, an important transportation corridor supporting a high vehicle traffic within the well-known tourist area of the Amalfi Coast (southern Italy). To this aim, the Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) and quantitative risk assessment (QRA) procedures, in this latter case for three rockfall risk scenarios, are applied. With reference to a large portion (33.820 out of a total of 50.365 km) of the SS163 road, the obtained QRA results highlight that, although the estimated individual risk to life satisfies the adopted tolerable risk criterion, the computed societal risk cannot be tolerated. Starting from this result, site-specific QRA analyses—carried out with reference to some road sections chosen on the basis of the RHRS results—allow the detection of the SS163 portions where the individual risk to life exceeds the tolerable risk threshold and, then, the recourse to mitigation measures could reveal necessary. In this regard, RHRS and QRA methods can be considered complementary tools in prioritizing the road sections where construction funds can be profitably spent in order to mitigate the rockfall risk with reference to both direct consequences (life loss) and indirect ones (traffic delay and diversions). 相似文献
13.
Saibal Ghosh Cees J. van Westen Emmanuel John M. Carranza Victor G. Jetten 《Landslides》2012,9(3):371-384
Landslide risk assessment is based on spatially integrating landslide hazard with exposed elements-at-risk to determine their vulnerability and to express the expected direct and indirect losses. There are three components that are relevant for expressing landslide hazard: spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities. At a medium-scale analysis, this is often done by first deriving a landslide susceptibility map, and to determine the three types of probabilities on the basis of landslide inventories linked to particular triggering events. The determination of spatial, temporal, and magnitude probabilities depend mainly on the availability of sufficiently complete historical records of past landslides, which in general are rare in most countries (e.g., India, etc.). In this paper, we presented an approach to use available historical information on landslide inventories for landslide hazard and risk analysis on a medium scale (1:25,000) in a perennially typical data-scarce environment in Darjeeling Himalayas (India). We demonstrate how the incompleteness in the resulting landslide database influences the various components in the calculation of specific risk of elements-at-risk (e.g., buildings, population, roads, etc.). We incorporate the uncertainties involved in the risk estimation and illustrate the range of expected losses in the form of maximum and minimum loss curves. The study demonstrates that even in data-scarce environments, quantitative landslide risk assessment is a viable option, as long as the uncertainties involved are expressed. 相似文献
14.
Overview of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：2
The National Science Council (NSC) of Taiwan started the HAZ-Taiwan project in 1998 to promote researches on seismic hazard
analysis, structural damage assessment, and socio-economic loss estimation. The associated application software, “Taiwan Earthquake
Loss Estimation System (TELES)”, integrates various inventory data and analysis modules to fulfill three objectives. First,
it helps to obtain reliable estimates of seismic hazards and losses soon after occurrence of large earthquakes. Second, it
helps to simulate earthquake scenarios and to provide useful estimates for local governments or public services to propose
their seismic disaster mitigation plans. Third, it helps to provide catastrophic risk management tools, such as proposing
the seismic insurance policy for residential buildings. This paper focuses on the development and application of analysis
modules used in early loss estimation system. These modules include assessments of ground motion intensity, soil liquefaction
potential, building damage and casualty. 相似文献
15.
Among the disasters facing Taiwan, earthquakes and typhoons incur the greatest monetary losses, and landslide disasters inflict the greatest damage in mountainous areas. The nationwide landslide susceptibility map gives an indication of where landslides are likely to occur in the future; however, there is no objective index indicating the location of landslide hotspots. In this study, we used statistical analysis to locate landslide hotspots in catchments in Taiwan. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the existence of landslide clusters between 2003 and 2012 and identified a concentration of landslide hotspots in the eastern part of Central Taiwan. The extreme rainfall brought by typhoon Morakot also led to the formation of new landslide hotspots in Southern Taiwan. This study provides a valuable reference explaining changes in landslide hotspots and identifying areas of high hotspot concentration to facilitate the formulation of strategies to deal with landslide risk. 相似文献
16.
《International Geology Review》2012,54(5):424-440
In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site—specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site—specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate—scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard. and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake—induced lateral—spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral—spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (CIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does; however, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy. 相似文献
17.
随着黄河流域生态保护与高质量发展上升为国家战略,滑坡灾害防治成为迫切需要攻克的基础性问题。另外,黄河上游地区因地形高差大、古地震及强降雨事件频繁,诱发的滑坡及滑坡堰塞湖数量多、分布广、危害重,是近年来滑坡发育和演化机制以及滑坡堰塞湖溃决效应研究的热点。本文在综合整理该地区已有研究工作的基础上,结合笔者研究团队近20年来所获得的滑坡调查评价、测试分析和防灾减灾研究成果,系统归纳了黄河上游地区滑坡调查与风险评价、滑坡时空展布规律及主控因素研究、典型滑坡堰塞湖的续存时长及溃决危害、古滑坡堆积体开发利用及防灾减灾等方面的研究进展和成果,提出了未来在该地区研究古滑坡、堰塞湖沉积与河流阶地以及堰塞湖溃决效应等应关注的4个科学问题。研究结果对于揭示黄河上游地质历史时期滑坡发育和堰塞湖形成的主控因素,探讨滑坡发育的动力机制对地震和降雨的响应过程,拓展第四纪地质学在古滑坡形成演变方面的应用研究等具有重要参考价值。 相似文献
18.
Consequence analysis is, together with hazard evaluation, one of the major steps of landslide risk assessment. However, a significant discrepancy exists between the number of published landslide hazard and landslide consequence studies. While various methodologies for regional-scale hazard assessment have been developed during the last decade, studies for estimating and visualising possible landslide consequences are still limited, and those existing are often difficult to apply in practice mainly because of the lack of data on the historical damage or on landslide damage functions. In this paper, an indicator-based GIS-aided methodology is proposed with an application to regional-scale consequence analysis. The index, called Potential Damage Index, allows describing, quantifying, valuing, totalizing and visualising different types of consequences. The method allows estimating the possible damage caused by landslides by combining weighted indicators reflecting the exposure of the elements at risk. Direct (physical injury, and structural and functional damage) and indirect (socio-economic impacts) consequences are individually analysed and subsequently combined to obtain a map of total consequences due to landsliding. Geographic visualisation of the index allows the delineation of the areas exposed to any type of possible impacts that could be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability of occurrence. The method has been successfully applied to analyse the present consequences in the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps). These maps contribute to development of adequate land use and evacuation plans, and thus are important tools for local authorities and insurance companies. 相似文献
19.
单体库岸滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害风险分析 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
水库滑坡次生涌浪灾害是库水运营过程中重要的灾害类型,开展滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害风险分析,能够合理确定并评价滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害对生命及财产的影响程度,从而为采取经济有效的减灾应急措施提供理论依据和技术支持.以三峡库区万州区塘角1号滑坡为例,探讨不同库水位降雨组合工况下,考虑空间差异性的单体滑坡危险性分析方法;确定滑坡次生涌浪灾害影响范围;完善滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害承灾体易损性评价方法;绘制最危险工况下塘角1号滑坡及其次生涌浪灾害经济风险和人口风险分布图,得出:塘角1号滑坡最危险工况为库水位175~145 m+3日100 mm降雨.在该工况下,塘角1号滑坡及其次生灾害总经济风险为2 239万元;坡体上室内人口总风险为0.55人.研究成果以期为指导该类滑坡减灾防灾提供思路和依据. 相似文献
20.
Landslide hazard or susceptibility assessment is based on the selection of relevant factors which play a role on the slope instability, and it is assumed that landslides will occur at similar conditions to those in the past. The selected statistical method compares parametric maps with the landslide inventory map, and results are then extrapolated to the entire evaluated territory with a final product of landslide hazard or susceptibility map. Elements at risk are defined and analyzed in relation with landslide hazard, and their vulnerability is thus established. The landslide risk map presents risk scenarios and expected financial losses caused by landslides, and it utilizes prognoses and analyses arising from the landslide hazard map. However, especially the risk scenarios for future in a selected area have a significant importance, the literature generally consists of the landslide susceptibility assessment and papers which attempt to assess and construct the map of the landslide risk are not prevail. In the paper presented herein, landslide hazard and risk assessment using bivariate statistical analysis was applied in the landslide area between Hlohovec and Sered?? cities in the south-western Slovakia, and methodology for the risk assessment was explained in detail. 相似文献