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生态示范区建设与区域可持续发展--以福建省长泰县为例 总被引：4，自引：1，他引：3
系统分析和评价长泰县ＰＲＥＤ（即“人口、资源、环境与发展”）系统的要素特征,概括长出泰ＰＲＥＤ的六个综合特征及其对制定区域可持续发展战备的影;提出７个重点建设产业、生态领域;最后,以景观生态学观点阐述长泰ＰＲＥＤ协调发展的空间管理格局。 相似文献
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中国区域可持续发展水平及其空间分特征 总被引：33，自引：3，他引：30
区域ＰＲＥＤ系统是个非线性的复杂巨系统。在已建立的人口、环境与可持续发展数据库基础上,应用耗散结构理论建立区域ＰＲＥＤ系统的非线性数学模型,提出衡量区域ＰＲＥＤ系统可持续发展水平的指数（ＳＤＩ）的概念和计算方法,定量地表达了中国各省区的右持续发展状况,进而应用地图学和地理信息系统方法研究其空间分布特征,分析造成这种格局的原因并提出相应对策。 相似文献
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区域PRED协调发展的有关理论问题 总被引：9，自引：2，他引：9
区域ＰＲＥＤ的协调发展，是８０年代以来世界各普遍关注的问题，一个国家或地区的持续稳定发展，关键在于ＰＲＥＤ之间是否协调，本文在于这种思想，从探讨区域ＰＲＥＤ协调发展的涵义和特点出发，分析了ＰＲＥＤ协调发展的机制，演变规律及协调发展的理论模式，旨在对丰富和完善我国区域ＰＲＥＤ协调发展理论有所裨益。 相似文献
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广东省PRED系统分析 总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6
通过数学计算,分析了广东省１９８０年以来ＰＲＥＤ各子系统及总系统的发展状况和趋势,对各子系统之间的相关性进行研究,提出协调广东省ＰＥＲＤ系统的方法和措施,达到广东省ＰＲＥＤ系统的可持续发展。 相似文献
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黑河中游水资源开发利用的阶段潜力研究 总被引：7，自引：3，他引：4
建立水资源开发利用阶段潜力的评价指标体系,运用模糊综合评判的方法对黑河中游地区水资源开发利用的阶段潜力进行了分析评价。结果表明:黑河中游地区水资源开发利用已处于中级阶段V2,水资源开发利用仍保持上升势头,潜力综合评分值较大,达到0.5349,说明水资源的进一步开发利用仍有较大的潜力。其中以甘州区水资源开发利用潜力最大,山丹县最小。黑河中游水资源开发利用阶段潜力的综合评价,为该区水资源的可持续利用提供了科学依据和决策支持,因而具有重要的理论和现实意义。 相似文献
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有计划地因地制宜地开发利用我国水资源,就必须研究分析水资源的数量、质量及分区特点。水文区划就是以一种或几种水文特征值为指标,找出它们在区域上的相似性和差异性,然后进行分区划片,并阐明区内各水文要素的分布、变化规律及其影响因素,指出对农业生产的有利或不利方面。为水资源的合理开发利用、为水利化区划、农业区划及综合自然区划提供水文方面的依据。 相似文献
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中国农业科学院农业自然资源和农业区划研究所副研究员姜文来博士撰写的<水资源价值论>,由科学出版社于1998年出版发行.本书以持续发展的观点为指导思想,在分析国内外水资源供需状态基础上,围绕水资源价值展开论述,剖析了国内外水资源价值研究现状、存在的问题和发展前景,创建了水资源价值源、水资源价值流、水资源价值突变、水资源耦合价值、水资源价值模型、水资源价值量核算及均衡代际转移水资源财富等理论,并以北京市为例,分析、计算了北京市水资源价值,研究了污染对水资源价值的影响及其对水资源财富的损失,将水资源价值引入南水北调(中线)工程进行综合研究,得出了具有独到见解的结论. 相似文献
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应用模糊综合评判方法对青海省水资源承载力评价研究 总被引：26，自引：4，他引：22
应用模糊综合评判方法对青海省水资源承载能力进行了分析评价。探讨了水资源承载能力模糊综合评价的方法,在对青海省水资源特征及开发利用等对承载能力影响的主要因素分析基础上,在评价因素选取、权重分配方面对水生态环境、生态用水因素给予重点考虑。结果表明,青海省水资源有较大开发容量,水资源承载能力的潜力相对较大。青海省水资源开发利用条件和程度不平衡,西宁市出现工程和水质型缺水,内陆河流域共和盆地和黄河一级支流湟水河流域水资源开发利用已达到极限水平。内陆河流域的格尔木河、巴音河的社会用水量和缺水量较大,资源性缺水严重。 相似文献
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大都市区城市扩展模型- 以北京城市扩展模拟为例 总被引：68，自引：9，他引：59
在分析大都市区城市扩展特征的基础上,从宏观外部约束性因素和局部城市单元自身扩展能力变化共同作用影响城市发展演变的角度,构建了一个模拟和预测大都市区城市发展演变过程的城市扩展模型 (City Expanding Model in Metropolitan Area; CEM)。首先对北京1975~1997年的城市发展过程进行模拟重建,然后在此基础上从城镇用地数量最优和位置最佳相结合的角度对北京2005~2015年的城市发展格局进行了预测。结果表明,在对各种影响因素进行严格标准化并利用自适应Monte-Carlo方法多次模拟确定最佳影响权重的基础上,该模型可以在一定程度上反映城市发展,尤其是大都市区城市发展演变的特征和规律。 相似文献
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The shortage of water resources is a key factor limiting the sustainable development of the economy and society in Beijing. This study analysed the spatiotemporal patterns of Beijing’s water conservation services (WCS) based on the water balance equation at multiple scales, including city, main functional areas and key districts and counties, determined the differences in the water conservation amount among different land cover types and investigated the reasons for the spatiotemporal differences in the water conservation amount. The results indicated that: (1) compared to 2005, water conservation amount increased substantially in 2010. However, the overall water conservation capacity was low. (2) Among the various land cover types in Beijing, the average water conservation capacity decreased in the following order: wetland, forest, grassland, cropland, bare land and artificial surface. (3) The average water conservation amount in the main functional areas of Beijing varied substantially and was positive only in the ecological conservation area (ECA). (4) The water conservation capacity of each district and county varied substantially within ECA, among which the contribution of the forest in Miyun District, Huairou District and Pinggu District was the highest. The changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of Beijing’s WCS were the synthetic effects of changes in the land covers and meteorological conditions. This study is helpful in achieving the sustainable utilization of water resources in Beijing. 相似文献
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为抵御蒙古贵族侵扰,明朝于长城沿线设置了九个军事重镇。大同镇位于北京西北部,是明代重要的军事屏障,因此十分重视大同镇的建设。有明一代,围绕大同镇的建设,大批军士征调于此,修筑边墙堡寨,屯垦土地。这些政策与措施虽然为明朝国防安全发挥了极其重要的作用,但对资源形成了巨大的消耗,使这一地区的生态环境发生了剧烈的变化。大片森林和草场被新垦土地所吞噬,生态效益迅速跌落,土壤保水能力差,风蚀、水蚀严重,土地不断荒漠化,不少以土地为生的百姓被迫留离失所,影响到该区域经济社会的发展。同时,严重的水土流失也导致了河流水性与水质发生变化,殃及下流北京以及沿岸地区。生态与环境是经济社会发展基本的物质基础,历史警示在区域经济建设中,我们只有提高环境保护意识,注重资源环境利用的科学性,才能达到经济社会发展与生态良性循环的双赢目标。 相似文献
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历史时期北京平原上湖泊众多,地表泉数以百计。历史时期由于永定河冲积扇的地下潜水水位较高,在潜水溢出带周围出露数以百计的下降泉,成为平原上众多湖泊的主要水源补给,并满足城市规划、园林设计、运河漕运、游憩休闲的需要。随着现代化城市的迅速发展,永定河冲积扇的地下潜水水位迅速下降,原来分布在潜水溢出带周围的数以百计的下降泉已经全部枯竭,位于其下游许多湖泊也随之干涸消亡,北京平原地表水系被彻底改造,城市生态环境发生巨大变化。 相似文献
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北京市养老设施空间可达性评价 总被引：4，自引：4，他引：0
发展养老服务是当前中国社会建设中的重要部分。近年来,北京市养老设施发展迅速,但是由于快速的人口老龄化,北京市养老设施的供给仍难以满足老年人口对养老设施的需求。对北京市养老设施空间可达性进行科学评价是进行合理空间配置的基础,具有重要的现实意义。本文基于GIS技术,应用改进的两步移动搜索法,对北京市养老设施的空间可达性进行了测算,并重点对1小时单一有效服务半径和按养老设施规模划分的三级有效服务半径这两种情形进行了比较分析。结果表明,后者对北京市养老设施的空间可达性评价更具合理性。本文对空间可达性的测算结果识别出了北京市各区域养老设施的稀缺程度,为养老设施的空间布局提出了政策性建议。 相似文献
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Water resources insufficiency is one of the bottlenecks that restrict sustainable socio-economic development in Ningbo city. Good handling of the relationship between water resources utilization and development is of great significance for the realization of continuous economic growth and sustainable socio-economic development. This study systematically evaluated water resources utilization with respect to water supply and demand. Water resources development and utilization prospects and regional differences were then assessed at multiple scales, at both county/district and city level in Ningbo city, using the water resources carrying index. Results showed that: (1) The volume of water resources supply and consumption gradually rose each year, with surface water as the primary source and groundwater as the secondary source. Regarding consumption, industrial water consumption was the primary element, and domestic and environmental water consumption were the secondary elements. Even though the use of water resources for irrigation, secondary and, tertiary industry were becoming more efficient, comprehensive per capita water consumption was gradually increasing. (2) The water resources carrying index for Ningbo city fluctuated in the range of 4.51-23.35 during 2001-2015; the degree of water resource utilization and potential exploitation evaluation of water resources were not stable. The average value of the water resources carrying index was 11.68; the degree of utilization of water resources was very high, and the introduction of water from external water bodies was necessary, to the extent external source were available. (3) Future water resources exploitation will be quite difficult in Ningbo city, especially in Cixi county, Ningbo municipal district and Yuyao county. So the introduction of external water as a supplemental source will be required. 相似文献
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基于时间序列法的北京市需水量预报(英文) 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
It is essential to establish the water resources exploitation and utilization planning,which is mainly based on recognizing and forecasting the water consumed structure rationally and scientifically.During the past 30 years(1980-2009),mean annual precipitation and total water resource of Beijing have decreased by 6.89% and 31.37% compared with those perennial values,respectively,while total water consumption during the same period reached pinnacle historically.Accordingly,it is of great significance for the harmony between socio-economic development and environmental development.Based on analyzing total water consumption,agricultural,industrial,domestic and environmental water consumption,and evolution of water consumed structure,further driving forces of evolution of total water consumption and water consumed structure are revealed systematically.Prediction and discussion are achieved for evolution of total water consumption,water consumed structure,and supply-demand situation of water resource in the near future of Beijing using Time Series Forecasting Method.The purpose of the endeavor of this paper is to provide scientific basis for the harmonious development between socio-economy and water resources,for the establishment of rational strategic planning of water resources,and for the social sustainable development of Beijing with scientific bases. 相似文献
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As a mega-city constrained by resources and the environment, Beijing has developed a leading service sector, and it is necessary to evaluate the service sector circular economy in this major global city. Here, we establish an indicator system including internal subsystem (economic production, resources consumption, waste emissions, and waste recycling), external subsystem (industry correlation) and mutualistic subsystem (society development), and use AHP modeling to evaluate the period from 2000 to 2013. We found that the development of the service sector circular economy in Beijing experienced an increase from 2000 to 2008, then a decrease from 2009 to 2013. This change mainly resulted from the decrease in Beijing’s GDP following the international financial crisis in 2008. The internal subsystem greatly influences the service sector circular economy:synthetic weight of economic production, resource consumption, waste emissions and waste recycling was 0.367,0.136,0.136 and 0.075, respectively. Within the external subsystem, industrial correlation has a weak connection with Beijing’s service sector circular economy with asynthetic weight of 0.143, this result illustrates that the development of the service sector circular economy has an intimate relationship with other cities or provinces around Beijing, such as Tianjin and Hebei. As are presentative of the mutualistic subsystem, society development has a positive nexus with the service sector circular economy with asynthetic weight of 0.143, proving that the development of the service sector circular economy can improve the service sector employment ratio in Beijing. We conclude with some suggestions on how to develop the service sector circular economy in Beijing. 相似文献
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《地理学报(英文版)》2019,(3)
The concepts of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity are important aspects of both academic inquiry and government policy. Although notable results have been achieved in terms of evaluating both these variables, most researchers have utilized a traditional analytical method that incorporates the "pressure-state-response" model. A new approach is proposed in this study for the comprehensive evaluation of regional resources and environmental carrying capacity; applying a "pressure-support", "destructiveness-resilience", and "degradation-promotion"("PS-DR-DP") hexagon interaction theoretical model, we divided carrying capacity into these three pairs of interactive forces which correspond with resource supporting ability, environmental capacity, and risk-disaster resisting ability, respectively. Negative carrying capacity load in this context was defined to include pressure, destructiveness, and degradation, while support, resilience, and promotion comprised positive attributes. The status of regional carrying capacity was then determined via the ratio between positive and negative contribution values, expressed in terms of changes in both hexagonal shape and area that result from interactive forces. In order to test our "PS-DR-DP" theory-based model, we carried out a further empirical study on Beijing over the period between 2010 and 2015. Analytical results also revealed that the city is now close to attaining a perfect state for both resources and environmental carrying capacity; the latter state in Beijing increased from 1.0143 to 1.1411 between 2010 and 2015, an improved carrying capacity despite the fact that population increased by two million. The average contribution value also reached 0.7025 in 2015, indicating that the city approached an optimal loading threshold at this time but still had space for additional carrying capacity. The findings of our analysis provide theoretical support to enable the city of Beijing to control population levels below 23 million by 2020. 相似文献
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采用单项指标估测,分析了首都圈土地资源人口承载及其限制性,提出了人口空间分布优化策略。首都圈水资源及建设用地生态适宜量限制了人口承载能力,京津土地资源人口承载力已基本达到饱和,环京津的冀东、冀中地区承载潜力还较大,冀北地区应紧缩开发空间而拓展生态空间。首都圈土地资源开发利用及人口发展战略分区为：首都圈北部生态屏障建设区,人口限制发展;中部都市功能优化区,人口控制增长;东部人口产业沿海集聚区,人口鼓励增长;南部绿色空间优化区,人口适度增长。首都圈的健康发展,应实施差异化的土地利用及人口发展政策,整体提升人口承载力,并加大区域统筹力度,科学、合理地引导人口的空间分流和聚集。 相似文献