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1.
卡特拉火山近期活动频繁,其喷发概率、喷发规模、喷发方式及影响都备受瞩目.通过收集整理若干资料和分析计算,采用“将古论今”的研究方法,初步得到了关于卡特拉火山未来可能的行为方式及影响.根据卡特拉火山喷发的历史规律,估算2013年的喷发概率约为30%.卡特拉火山下次喷发规模可能为4级或5级,其喷发方式有3种:其一是岩浆冲破巨厚冰层发生爆破性喷发;其二是正常的岩浆喷发;其三是夭折的喷发.但根据现有资料分析,卡特拉火山最有可能是以见不到喷发的形式结束这次不稳定性活动.   相似文献   

2.
Summary The evolution of the Mt. Somma caldera is reconstructed by means of volcanological, geological and geomorphologic data. The present caldera shape results from two caldera forming events: (a) break-up of the upper part of the older structure, which occurred between 17 and 8Kyr B.P. through a series of external volcaniclastic debris flow depositions and internal collapses into a cored-out vent. (b) W–SW directed sector collapse of the enlarged Mt. Somma crater, caused by excess vapour pressure generated during the Avellino eruption (3.5Kyr B.P.). At this time, the morphology of the Mt. Somma crater probably resembled the demolished crater formed in 1980 at Mt. St. Helens. Flank failure of Mt. Somma during the Avellino eruption was probably caused both by a migration of the vent to the west and a drastic change of the hydrogeological conditions at depth. Flank failure processes were extended to the S–SE sector of the Mt. Somma edifice during the 79 A.D. and 472 A.D. eruptions. After the 472 A.D. eruption interplinian activity during the Middle Ages resulted in the formation of the Vesuvius cone inside the Mt. Somma caldera.  相似文献   

3.
Potential Hazards of Eruptions around the Tianchi Caldera Lake, China   总被引：8，自引：0，他引：8  
Since the eruption of the Tianchi volcano about 1000 years ago, there have been at least 3 to 5 eruptions of small to moderate size. In addition, hazardous avalanches, rock falls and debris flows have occurred during periods between eruptions. A future eruption of the Tianchi volcano is likely to involve explosive interaction between magma and the caldera lake. The volume of erupted magma is almost in a range of 0.1-0.5 km3. Tephra fallout may damage agriculture in a large area near the volcano. If only 1% of the lake water were ejected during an eruption and then precipitated over an area of 200 km2, the average rainfall would be 100 mm. Moreover, lahars are likely to occur as both tephra and water ejected from the caldera lake fall onto flanks of the volcano. Rocks avalanching into the caldera lake also would bring about grave hazards because seiches would be triggered and lake water with the volume equal to that of the landslide would spill out of the existing breach in the caldera and cause flooding  相似文献   

4.
A probabilistic eruption forecast is provided for seven historically active volcanoes along the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA), as a pivotal empirical contribution to multi-disciplinary volcanic hazards assessment. The eruption probabilities are determined with a Kaplan–Meier estimator of survival functions, and parametric time series models are applied to describe the historical eruption records. Aside from the volcanoes that are currently in a state of eruptive activity (Santa María, Fuego, and Arenal), the highest probabilities for eruptions of VEI ≥ 2 occur at Concepción and Cerro Negro in Nicaragua, which are likely to erupt to 70–85 % within the next 10 years. Poás and Irazú in Costa Rica show a medium to high eruption probability, followed by San Miguel (El Salvador), Rincón de la Vieja (Costa Rica), and Izalco (El Salvador; 24 % within the next 10 years).  相似文献   

5.
强火山活动是气候变化的重要自然驱动因素,可导致中国降水出现年际或年代际变化,甚至极端的旱涝现象。探究位于中国邻域的印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发与中国旱涝分布格局的关系,有助于阐释中国旱涝发生的时空规律及机制,为预测未来火山爆发可能导致的降水异常提供借鉴。本文基于1500—2000年期间世界强火山活动和中国旱涝资料,运用时序叠加分析的方法辨识了印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发后中国旱涝在年际尺度上的时空变化特征,并对1815年Tambora火山喷发进行案例分析。结果表明印度尼西亚—菲律宾一带的强火山喷发对中国的旱涝格局有一定的影响:强火山喷发后第0年至第2年,中国中东部各站点的整体变化为偏涝;在第3年,整体出现了偏旱的转变,且变化幅度相比其他年份较大;就地区而言,喷发后华北、华南地区分别出现了由旱转涝、由涝转旱的变化,并且这些变化大概持续了2~3年,随后2个区域均恢复了喷发前的旱涝趋势;印度尼西亚1815年Tambora火山喷发后0~3年,中国以涝情为主,但发生涝情的区域逐年在发生变化。  相似文献   

6.
At Santa Maria Volcano (New Hebrides island arc), extensive ash and scoria flow deposits overlie the mainly effusive, pre-caldera cone. Hydromagmatic features characterize these deposits, the composition of juvenile clasts ranges from basalt to acid andesite/dacite (SiO2= 51–63.6%) with a dominant basaltic composition. The stratigraphic position of this pyroclastic series and its spatial distribution around a 8.5 km × 6 km wide caldera provide evidence of a relationship between this series and the caldera formation. In addition, these pyroclastic deposits are co-genetic to parasitic cones and lava flows developed along faults concentric to the caldera. Both series result from a compositionally layered magma reservoir, the subordinate differentiated magmas being the result of fractional crystallization from the basalts. A model of caldera formation which implies a large hydromagmatic eruption at the central vent and minor magma withdrawal by flank eruptions is proposed. This model emphasizes the importance of mafic hydroclastic eruptions in the caldera forming event and contradicts a model implying only quiet subsidence, a process often proposed for the formation of calderas in island are volcanoes of mainly mafic composition.  相似文献   

7.
In this article, we model the volcanism near the proposed nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, U.S.A. by estimating the instantaneous recurrence rate using a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with Weibull intensity and by using a homogeneous Poisson process to predict future eruptions. We then quantify the probability that any single eruption is disruptive in terms of a (prior) probability distribution, since not every eruption would result in disruption of the repository. Bayesian analysis is performed to evaluate the volcanic risk. Based on the Quaternary data, a 90% confidence interval for the instantaneous recurrence rate near the Yucca Mountain site is (1.85×10–6/yr, 1.26×10–5/yr). Also, using-these confidence bounds, the corresponding 90% confidence interval for the risk (probability of at least one disruptive eruption) for an isolation time of 104 years is (1.0×10–3, 6.7×10–3), if it is assumed that the intensity remains constant during the projected time frame.  相似文献   

8.
At least 12 silicic tephra layers (SILK tephras) erupted between ca. 6600 and ca. 1675 yr BP from the Katla volcanic system, have been identified in southern Iceland. In addition to providing significant new knowledge on the Holocene volcanism of the Katla system which typically produces basaltic tephra, the SILK tephras form distinct and precise isochronous marker horizons in a climatically sensitive location close to both the atmospheric and marine polar fronts. With one exception the SILK tephras have a narrow compositional range, with SiO2 between 63 and 67%. Geochemically they are indistinguishable from ocean transported pumice found on beaches in the North Atlantic region, although they differ significantly from the silicic component of the North Atlantic Ash Zone One (NAAZO). Volumes of airborne SILK tephra range from 0.05 to 0.3 km3. We present new isopach maps of the six largest layers and demonstrate that they originate within the Katla caldera. The apparently stable magma system conditions that produced the SILK tephras may have been established as a consequence of the eruption of the silicic component of NAAZO (ca. 10.3 ka) and disrupted by another large‐scale event, the tenth century ad Eldgjá eruption (ca. 1 ka). Despite the current long repose, silicic activity of this type may occur again in the future, presenting hitherto unknown hazards. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
The 3.7 ka year-old Averno 2 eruption is one of the rare eruptions to have occurred in the northwest sector of the Phlegraean Fields caldera (PFc) over the past 5 ka. We focus here on the fallout deposits of the pyroclastic succession emplaced during this eruption. We present major and trace element data on the bulk pumices, along with major and volatile element data on clinopyroxene-hosted melt inclusions, in order to assess the conditions of storage, ascent, and eruption of the feeding trachytic magma. Crystal fractionation accounts for the evolution from trachyte to alkali-trachyte magmas; these were intimately mingled (at the micrometer scale) during the climactic phase of the eruption. The Averno 2 alkali trachyte represents one of the most evolved magmas erupted within the Phlegraean Fields area and belongs to the series of differentiated trachytic magmas erupted at different locations 5 ka ago. Melt inclusions record significant variations in H2O (from 0.4 to 5 wt%), S (from 0.01 to 0.06 wt%), Cl (from 0.75 up to 1 wt%), and F (from 0.20 to >0.50 wt%) during both magma crystallization and degassing. Unlike the eruptions occurring in the central part of the PFc, deep-derived input(s) of gas and/or magma are not required to explain the composition of melt inclusions and the mineralogy of Averno 2 pumices. Compositional data on bulk pumices, glassy matrices, and melt inclusions suggest that the Averno 2 eruption mainly resulted from successive extrusions of independent magma batches probably emplaced at depths of 2–4 km along regional fractures bordering the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff caldera.  相似文献   

10.
Previous published data, combined with our results of 13 new radiocarbon ages and extensive geological fieldwork, indicate that during the past 11 ka 24 monogenetic basaltic eruptions occurred in the north sector of Gran Canaria. These eruptions can be grouped into three periods of eruptive activity: 1900–3200 14C a BP; 5700–6000 14C a BP; and an older period represented by only one eruption, El Draguillo, dated at 10 610 ± 190 14C a BP. Archaeological studies have shown that the more recent eruptions affected prehistoric human settlements on the island. Field studies demonstrate that the eruptions typically built strombolian cones (30–250 m in height) and associated relatively long lava flows (100–10 350 m in length); a few eruptions also produced tephra fall deposits. The total erupted volume of these eruptions is about 0.388 km3 (46.1% as tephra fall, 41.8% as cinder cone deposits and 12.1% as lava flows). The relatively low eruption rate (～0.04 km3 ka?1) during the past 11 ka is consistent with Gran Canaria's stage of evolution in the regional volcano‐tectonic setting of the Canary Archipelago. The results of our study were used to construct a volcanic hazards map that clearly delimits two sectors in the NE sector of Gran Canaria, where potential future eruptions would pose a substantial risk for densely populated areas. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
This paper is a companion to Clark (1988; hereafter Part I) which described the evolution of the Tejeda Magmatic System (TMS), a Miocene caldera complex, Gran Canaria, Spain, based on geochronologic, paleomagnetic and field data. In this study, petrochemical data are used to corroborate the history out-lined in Part I. Geochemical discriminant analysis shows that whereas the Extra-Caldera (EC) Mogan/Fataga volcanics are separated by a composition gap, no composition gap exists within the Intra-Caldera (IC) sequence. IC ignimbrites change rapidly but progressively from pantellerites and comendites to comenditic trachytes and finally to trachytes in a 0.47 Ma time interval. Significantly, the lower pantelleritic part of the IC series is similar to the EC pantellerites (units B, C and D) as expected based on results from Part I. The appearance of a compositional gap in the EC sequence is the result of flows having been trapped within the caldera during the 0.47 Ma Mogan-Fataga transition interval. The transitional IC sequence may be geochemically modelled by mixing of Mogan comendites and Fataga trachytes. The mixing was most probably induced by the high discharge of magma from the compositionally-zoned Tejeda magma body. The rate of change in erupted composition is best explained by imagining a continuous influx of Fataga or parental Fataga magma into a chamber whose previous silicic component (Mogan composition) was no longer being replenished and that the two magmas did not convectively mix prior to eruption. Repose times between successive eruptions in the lower to middle Mogan (from P1/T1 to A) were of order 30 000 a; the upper Mogan pantellerites and comendites/comenditic trachytes (B to F?) erupted once every 125 000 years or so. The longer repose time for the upper units is consistent with their more differentiated character.  相似文献   

12.
Volcanism associated with the middle Proterozoic Gawler Range acid volcano‐plutonic province was initiated in the Kokatha area by the construction on Archaean basement of a large stratovolcano composed mainly of tholeiitic basalt and potassic basaltic‐andesite erupted possibly from a mantle‐derived ultramafic diapir.

Crustal melting above the diapir generated acid magma, rich in silica and potassium, which rose by major block‐stoping to form a subvolcanic magma chamber. Leakage from this chamber during the premonitory caldera phase gave rise to small explosive and effusive eruptions around an incipient ring‐fracture zone. In the caldera phase, the eruption of voluminous rhyodacite to dacite ignimbrite from the subvolcanic magma chamber resulted in collapse of the roof partway through the eruption to form the Chandabooka caldera, 15 x 10 km across: the ignimbrite comprises a thick compound cooling unit, the Chandabooka Dacite, of which both the caldera and outflow facies are preserved. Resurgent doming and subsequent uplift of the caldera block by 1 km followed in the post‐caldera phase, accompanied by minor acidic volcanism. Flat‐roofed stocks of the primitive S‐type Hiltaba Granite and a major dyke swarm intruded the volcanic pile to complete the volcano‐plutonic episode.  相似文献   

13.
Here we present a tephrostratigraphic record (core Co1202) recovered from the northeastern part of Lake Ohrid (Republics of Macedonia and Albania) reaching back to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 6. Overall ten horizons (OT0702‐1 to OT0702‐10) containing volcanic tephra have been recognised throughout the 14.94 m long sediment succession. Four tephra layers were visible at macroscopic inspection (OT0702‐4, OT0702‐6, OT0702‐8 and OT0702‐9), while the remaining six are cryptotephras (OT0702‐1, OT0702‐2, OT0702‐3, OT0702‐5, OT0702‐7 and OT0702‐10) identified from peaks in K, Zr and Sr intensities, magnetic susceptibility measurements, and washing and sieving of the sediments. Glass shards of tephra layers and cryptotephras were analysed with respect to their major element composition, and correlated to explosive eruptions of Italian volcanoes. The stratigraphy and the major element composition of tephra layers and cryptotephras allowed the correlation of OT0702‐1 to AD 472 or AD 512 eruptions of Somma‐Vesuvius, OT0702‐2 to the FL eruption of Mount Etna, OT0702‐3 to the Mercato from Somma‐Vesuvius, OT0702‐4 to SMP1‐e/Y‐3 eruption from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702‐5 to the Codola eruption (Somma‐Vesuvius or Campi Flegrei), OT0702‐6 to the Campanian Ignimbrite/Y‐5 from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702‐7 to the Green Tuff/Y‐6 eruption from Pantelleria Island, OT0702‐8 to the X‐5 eruption probably originating from the Campi Flegrei caldera, OT0702‐9 to the X‐6 eruption of generic Campanian origin, and OT0702‐10 to the P‐11 eruption from Pantelleria Island. The fairly well‐known ages of these tephra layers and parent eruptions provide new data on the dispersal and deposition of these tephras and, furthermore, allow the establishment of a chronological framework for core Co1202 for a first interpretation of major sedimentological changes. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Mangakino, the oldest rhyolitic caldera centre delineated in the Taupo Volcanic Zone of New Zealand, generated two very large (super-sized) ignimbrite eruptions, the 1.21 ± 0.04 Ma >500 km3 Ongatiti and ~1.0 Ma ~1,200 km3 Kidnappers events, the latter of which was followed after a short period of erosion by the ~200 km3 Rocky Hill eruption. We present U/Pb ages and trace-element analyses on zircons from pumice clasts from these three eruptions by Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry (SIMS) using SHRIMP-RG instruments to illustrate the evolution of the respective magmatic systems. U–Pb age spectra from the Ongatiti imply growth of the magmatic system over ~250 kyr, with a peak of crystallisation around 1.32 Ma, ~100 kyr prior to eruption. The zircons are inferred to have then remained stable in a mush with little crystallisation and/or dissolution before later rejuvenation of the system at the lead-in to eruption. The paired Kidnappers and Rocky Hill eruptions have U–Pb zircon ages and geochemical signatures that suggest they were products of a common system grown over ~200 kyr. The Kidnappers and Rocky Hill samples show similar weakly bimodal age spectra, with peaks at 1.1 and 1.0 Ma, suggesting that an inherited antecrystic population was augmented by crystals grown at ages within uncertainty of the eruption age. In the Kidnappers, this younger age peak is dominantly seen in needle-shaped low U grains with aspect ratios of up to 18. In all three deposits, zircon cores show larger ranges and higher absolute concentrations of trace elements than zircon rims, consistent with zircon crystallisation from evolving melts undergoing crystal fractionation involving plagioclase and amphibole. Abundances and ratios of many trace elements frequently show variations between different sectors within single grains, even where there is no visible sector zoning in cathodoluminescence (CL) imaging. Substitution mechanisms, as reflected in the molar (Sc + Y + REE3+)/P ratio, differ in the same growth zone between the sides (along a-axis and b-axis: values approaching 1.0) and tips (c-axis: values between 1.5 and 5.0) of single crystals. These observations have implications for the use of zircons for tracking magmatic processes, particularly in techniques where CL zonation within crystals is not assessed and small analytical spot sizes cannot be achieved. These observations also limit applicability of the widely used Ti-in-zircon thermometer. The age spectra for the Ongatiti and Kidnappers/Rocky Hill samples indicate that both magmatic systems were newly built in the time-breaks after respective previous large eruptions from Mangakino. Trace element variations defining three-component mixing suggest that zircons, sourced from multiple melts, contributed to the population in each system.  相似文献   

15.
The Cabo de Gata volcanic field of southeastern Spain contains several recently-recognized calderas. Some of the calderas are mineralized with epithermal gold, alunite, and base metal deposits, and others are barren, and yet they formed under generally similar conditions. Comparison of the magmatic, geochemical, and physical evolution of the Los Frailes, Rodalquilar, and Lomilla calderas provides insight into the processes of caldera evolution that led to precious-metal mineralization. The Los Frailes caldera formed at 14.4 Ma and is the oldest caldera. It formed in response to multiple eruptions of hornblende dacite magma. Following each eruption, the area collapsed and the caldera was invaded by the sea. Dacite domes fill the lower part of the caldera. Pyroxene andesites were erupted through the solidified core of the caldera and were probably initially responsible for magma generation. The Los Frailes caldera did not evolve to rhyolites nor was it subjected to the amount of structural development that the younger, mineralized Rodalquilar and Lomilla calderas were.  相似文献   

16.
The eruptions of Thera (Santorini) between 1628 and 1450 BC constituted a natural catastrophe unparalleled in all of history. The last major eruption in 1450 BC destroyed the entire Minoan Fleet at Crete at a time when the Minoans dominated the Mediterranean world. In addition, there had to be massive loss of life from ejecta gases, volcanic ash, bombs, and flows. The collapse of a majestic mountain into a caldera 15 km in diameter caused a giant ocean wave, a tsunami, that at its source was estimated in excess of 46 m high. The tsunami destroyed ships as far away as Crete (105 km) and killed thousands of people along the shorelines in the eastern Mediterranean area. At distant points in Asia Minor and Africa, there was darkness from ash fallout, lightning, and destructive earthquakes. Earthquake waves emanating from the epicenter near the ancient volcano were felt as far away as the Norwegian countries. These disturbances caused great physical damage in the eastern Mediterranean and along the rift valley system from Turkey to the south into central Africa. They caused major damage and fires in north Africa from Sinai to Alexandria, Egypt. Volcanic ash spread upward as a pillar of fire and clouds into the atmosphere and blocked out the sun for many days. The ash reached the stratosphere and moved around the world where the associated gases and fine particulate matter impacted the atmosphere, soils, and waters. Ground-hugging, billowing gases moved along the water surface and destroyed all life downwind, probably killing those who attempted to flee from Thera. The deadly gases probably reached the shores of north Africa. Climatic changes were the aftermath of the eruption and the atmospheric plume was to eventually affect the bristlecone pine of California; the bog oaks of Ireland, England, and Germany, and the grain crops of China. Historical eruptions at Krakatau, Tambora, Vesuvius, and, more currently, eruptions at Nevado del Ruiz, Pinatubo, and Mount Saint Helens, have done massive environmental damage but none can compare with the sociological, religious, economic, agricultural, and political impacts from Thera (Santorini). Major natural catastrophes that have occurred over historical time illustrate the force of nature and the impact on civilizations. Some examples of these are rains that flooded the Euphrates Valley during the time of Noah, and floods, earthquakes, and hurricanes in recent years, such as earthquakes in California and Hurricane Hugo on the east coast of the United States.  相似文献   

17.
Western Canada lies in a zone of active tectonics and volcanism, but thedispersed population has witnessed few eruptions due to the remoteness of the volcanoes and their low level ofactivity. This has created a false perception that Canada's volcanoes are extinct.There are more than 200 potentially-active volcanoes in Canada, 49of which have erupted in the past 10,000 years. They occur in five belts, with origins related totectonic environment. The minimum annual probability of a Canadian volcanic eruption is approximately 1/200;for an effusive (lava) eruption the probability is about 1/220, and for a significant explosive eruptionit is about 1/3333. In-progress studies show that there have been earthquakes associated with at least 9 ofthe youngest Canadian volcanoes since 1975. A scenario of an eruption of Mt. Cayley (50.1°N,123.3°W) shows how western Canada is vulnerable to an eruption. The scenario is basedon past activity in the Garibaldi volcanic belt and involves both explosive and effusive activity.The scenario impact is largely a result of the concentration of vulnerable infrastructure in valleys.Canadian volcanoes are monitored only by a regional seismic network,that is capable of detecting a M > 2 event in all potentially-active areas.This level of monitoring is probably sufficient to alert scientistsat or near eruption onset, but probably insufficient to allow a timelyforecast of activity. Similarly the level of geological knowledge about the volcanoes is insufficient to createhazard maps. This will improve slightly in 2002 when additional monitoring is implemented in theGaribaldi volcanic belt. The eruption probabilities, possible impacts, monitoring limitations and knowledgegaps suggest that there is a need to increment the volcanic risk mitigation efforts.  相似文献   

18.
We present for the first time a self-consistent methodology connecting volcanological field data to global climate model estimates for a regional time series of explosive volcanic events. Using the petrologic method, we estimated SO2 emissions from 36 detected Plinian volcanic eruptions occurring at the Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA) during the past 200,000 years. Together with simple parametrized relationships collected from past studies, we derive estimates of global maximum volcanic aerosol optical depth (AOD) and radiative forcing (RF) describing the effect of each eruption on radiation reaching the Earth’s surface. In parallel, AOD and RF time series for selected CAVA eruptions are simulated with the global aerosol model MAECHAM5-HAM, which shows a relationship between stratospheric SO2 injection and maximum global mean AOD that is linear for smaller volcanic eruptions (<5 Mt SO2) and nonlinear for larger ones (≥5 Mt SO2) and is qualitatively and quantitatively consistent with the relationship used in the simple parametrized approximation. Potential climate impacts of the selected CAVA eruptions are estimated using an earth system model of intermediate complexity by RF time series derived by (1) directly from the global aerosol model and (2) from the simple parametrized approximation assuming a 12-month exponential decay of global AOD. We find that while the maximum AOD and RF values are consistent between the two methods, their temporal evolutions are significantly different. As a result, simulated global maximum temperature anomalies and the duration of the temperature response depend on which RF time series is used, varying between 2 and 3 K and 60 and 90 years for the largest eruption of the CAVA dataset. Comparing the recurrence time of eruptions, based on the CAVA dataset, with the duration of climate impacts, based on the model results, we conclude that cumulative impacts due to successive eruptions are unlikely. The methodology and results presented here can be used to calculate approximate volcanic forcings and potential climate impacts from sulfur emissions, sulfate aerosol or AOD data for any eruption that injects sulfur into the tropical stratosphere.  相似文献   

19.
Kīlauea is the youngest of five basaltic shield volcanoes on the island of Hawai’i. It is located to the south‐east of the much larger Mauna Loa volcano, and rose above sea level about 100 ka ago. Kīlauea is one of the most monitored, and arguably the best understood volcanoes on Earth, providing scientists with a good understanding of its current eruption, in which magma rises from depth and is stored beneath its 4 × 3.2 km summit caldera in an underground reservoir. The reservoir is connected to a lava lake within a crater called Halema’uma’u, which is situated on the floor of the caldera. When magma drains from the summit area it travels in underground conduits and emerges on the flanks of the volcano at a rift zone, where it erupts through fissures. The magma is sometimes stored in other reservoirs along the way. This link between summit magma storage and fissure eruptions on the flanks has occurred thousands of times at many Hawai’ian volcanoes. The current eruptive episode is, however, a ‘once‐in‐a‐century’ show, because it is the first time since 1924 that fissure‐fed lava flow eruptions have been accompanied by significant explosive eruptions within Halema’uma’u Crater. This gives scientists a unique opportunity to use modern methods to understand exactly how such hazardous explosions happen at Kīlauea, a volcano that receives about 2 million visitors a year.  相似文献   

20.
Pico, the youngest island of the Azores Archipelago (Portugal), is characterized by a central volcano and a 30‐km‐long fissure zone. Its eruption rate is the highest of the Azores islands, with more than 35 eruptions in the last 2000 years. Here, we estimate the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island by combining the vent opening probability derived from the spatial distribution of eruptive fissures, the classes of expected eruptions inferred from the physical and chemical characteristics of historical eruptions, and the lava‐flow paths simulated by the MAGFLOW model. The most likely area to host new eruptions is along a WNW–ESE trend centred on the central volcano, with the highest hazard affecting the two main residential zones of Lajes do Pico and Madalena. Our analysis is the first attempt to assess the lava‐flow hazard for Pico Island, and may have important implications for decision‐making in territorial management and future land‐use planning.  相似文献   

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