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1.
Understanding factors that drive urban growth is essential to cellular automata (CA) based urban modeling. Multicollinearity among correlated factors may cause negative effects when building CA transition rules, leading to a decrease in simulation accuracy. We use a nonparametric generalized additive model (GAM) to evaluate these relationships through flexible smooth functions to capture the dynamics of urban growth. A GAM-based CA (termed GAM-CA) model was then developed to simulate the rapid urban growth in Shanghai, China from 2000 to 2015. GAM highlights the significance of each candidate factor driving urban growth during the past 15 years. Compared to logistic regression, the GAM-CA transition rules fitted the observed data better and yielded improved overall accuracy and hence more realistic urban growth patterns. The new CA model has great potential for capturing key driving factors to simulate dynamic urban growth, and can predict future scenarios under various spatial constraints and conditions. 相似文献
2.
基于Drucker-Prager准则的岩石弹塑性损伤本构模型研究 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
大多数岩石材料软化本构模型在硬化函数中引入塑性内变量来表示材料的硬化/软化性质,但并不能反映岩石微裂隙损伤对材料力学性能的影响及单轴拉伸和压缩所表现的初始屈服强度f0与屈服极限fu的差异。基于D-P准则同时考虑塑性软化及损伤软化,建立岩石类材料的弹塑性本构关系及其数值算法。塑性屈服函数采用Borja等的应力张量的硬化/软化函数,反映塑性内变量及应力状态对硬化函数的影响;由于岩石损伤软化是微裂隙扩展所导致的体积膨胀引起的,因此,提出用体积应变表征岩石损伤变量的演化,并用回映隐式积分算法编制了岩石的弹塑性损伤本构程序。对单轴压缩及拉伸荷载作用下的岩石材料试验进行数值模拟,结果表明,所提出的岩石弹塑性损伤本构模型可以较好地符合岩石材料的力学特性。 相似文献
3.
波流边界层水动力模拟对研究波流相互作用和泥沙运动具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。开发了波流边界层1DV垂向一维水动力数值模型,可用于模拟漩涡沙波床面和平底床面水动力特征。模型的构建基于边界层控制方程,平底床面采用k-ε模型,沙波床面采用双层模型,提出了漩涡层和紊动扩散层交界面紊动动能和紊动耗散率表达式。试验资料验证表明,模型较好地模拟了波浪-水流-床面共同作用下的边界层水动力特征,包括波周期内不同相位流速分布、紊动动能、剪切应力等以及波致时均流速分布和波流相互作用下的时均流速分布等。根据所建模型,讨论了不同床面和波流组合条件下的水动力特征。该模型可为研究波流边界层内水动力特征提供工具。 相似文献
4.
Fernando Saboya Jr. Maria da Glória Alves Wendell Dias Pinto 《Engineering Geology》2006,86(4):211-224
Generally, the process of land occupation in urban areas involves spaces that are not suitable for construction. In most cases these areas are subject to landslides. Therefore it is mister the development of models to evaluate the susceptibility of occurrence of landslides in these areas. For this, Fuzzy Logic is used herein for modeling such areas where landslides are susceptible to occur and, therefore, a direct evaluation is important. The possibility of capturing the judgment and the modeling of linguistic variables are the main advantages of using Fuzzy Logic. These models are capable to capture the factors directly affecting the slope stability and also the inter-relationship amongst them. These factors were chosen by experts to whom a questionnaire was sent. Fuzzy Logic was then used to transform the linguistic variables into fuzzy number, allowing thus, the calculation of failure potential index (FPI). Herein the MAX-MIN Mamdani strategy for the inference of the rule base was used. This methodology has been applied to identify the susceptibility of landslides in a chaotic occupied urban area of Itaperuna City in northeastern of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, where some occurrences have been reported. 相似文献
5.
城区渗流场中地下阻水结构物众多,由于结构物的角点为奇异点,而且结构物的尺寸跟整个城区渗流场的尺寸相比非常小,这导致现有的计算方法难以对城区渗流场进行模拟分析。针对城区渗流场的这些特点,通过引进流体力学的复势、偶极子等理论,采用抽注水井对结构物进行模拟。通过控制井流量的大小,以形成强弱程度不同的阻水效果,而单元尺寸可以以井点间距为尺度,用较少的节点和单元即可对地下结构物进行处理,达到简化计算的目的。抽注水井法是一种简化的模拟算法,它忽略了结构物附近局部区域流场失真的情况,强调在宏观上与真实流场接近。 相似文献
6.
Sadeq Dezhkam Bahman Jabbarian Amiri Ali Asghar Darvishsefat Yousef Sakieh 《GeoJournal》2014,79(5):591-604
Urban growth models (UGM) as regional planning tools are of great interest for quantitative analysis of urban complex systems. In this study, the SLEUTH UGM has been calibrated through a sequential multistage automated method to derive the pattern of urban growth in Rasht County from 1975 up to year 2011. Evaluation of model goodness of fit confirms that the model is adjusted properly to the area under investigation. Four growth rules of spontaneous, new spreading center, edge and road influenced growth as well as five coefficients of diffusion, breed, spread, road gravity and slope resistance are responsible to detect quantitative aspects of urban dynamics from control years. According to the results, successive improvement of the model parameters during the calibration mode indicates applicability of the model for forecasting of future urban growth mechanism until the year 2050. Accordingly, two growth scenarios were developed mainly with the aim of investigating the coefficients’ role in controlling the nature of urban dynamics. In this concern, the spread and road gravity coefficients’ value, as two major driving forces of urban sprawl in the study area were reduced to dictate compact and infill growth, compared to their original values derived from calibration for historical prediction. Comparison between two forecasted scenarios indicates insignificant difference in total amount of the urban area, which denotes there is a threshold to urbanization and the current trend of urban growth could not be maintained. Finally, we conclude that Rasht County with considerable industrial and agricultural attractions, will witness noticeable expansion from 20,310 ha in 2011, up to 34,745 ha in 2050, accounting to 71 % increase in total area of manmade surfaces. 相似文献
7.
Mohamed Al-shalabi Lawal Billa Biswajeet Pradhan Shattri Mansor Abubakr A. A. Al-Sharif 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(1):425-437
An effective and efficient planning of an urban growth and land use changes and its impact on the environment requires information about growth trends and patterns amongst other important information. Over the years, many urban growth models have been developed and used in the developed countries for forecasting growth patterns. In the developing countries however, there exist a very few studies showing the application of these models and their performances. In this study two models such as cellular automata (CA) and the SLEUTH models are applied in a geographical information system (GIS) to simulate and predict the urban growth and land use change for the City of Sana’a (Yemen) for the period 2004–2020. GIS based maps were generated for the urban growth pattern of the city which was further analyzed using geo-statistical techniques. During the models calibration process, a total of 35 years of time series dataset such as historical topographical maps, aerial photographs and satellite imageries was used to identify the parameters that influenced the urban growth. The validation result showed an overall accuracy of 99.6 %; with the producer’s accuracy of 83.3 % and the user’s accuracy 83.6 %. The SLEUTH model used the best fit growth rule parameters during the calibration to forecasting future urban growth pattern and generated various probability maps in which the individual grid cells are urbanized assuming unique “urban growth signatures”. The models generated future urban growth pattern and land use changes from the period 2004–2020. Both models proved effective in forecasting growth pattern that will be useful in planning and decision making. In comparison, the CA model growth pattern showed high density development, in which growth edges were filled and clusters were merged together to form a compact built-up area wherein less agricultural lands were included. On the contrary, the SLEUTH model growth pattern showed more urban sprawl and low-density development that included substantial areas of agricultural lands. 相似文献
8.
城市景观格局的大气环境效应研究进展 总被引：10，自引：0，他引：10
城市规划不仅需要适应区域气候,更需要通过城市自身的合理空间配置来缓解因城市化引起的城市大气环境问题,因此,加强城市景观格局大气环境效应的研究对于提高城市规划的水平具有重要的意义。从城市下垫面的大气环境效应、大气数值模式、遥感应用技术以及城市规划的气候适应性等方面综述了城市景观格局的大气环境效应的研究进展,并分析了城市景观格局的大气环境效应应用于城市规划面临的主要问题。尽管城市景观组分的大气环境效应已经得到充分认识和应用,但是景观组分的空间组合,即城市景观格局对城市大气环境的影响及其应用研究仅仅处于起步的阶段。为了推动城市景观格局的大气环境效应研究并应用于城市规划之中,除了需要深入研究“格局影响过程”的机制外,还需要重点解决2个问题：一是寻找能够用来研究城市景观格局与大气环境相互作用的格局参数;二是确认具有一般意义的理想城市景观格局模式。 相似文献
9.
George D. Bathrellos Kalliopi Gaki-Papanastassiou Hariklia D. Skilodimou Dimitrios Papanastassiou Konstantinos G. Chousianitis 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2012,66(2):537-548
During the planning of an urban environment, usually only economic and social parameters are taken into account. As a result,
urban areas are susceptible to natural disasters, which cause extensive damages in them, because the cities or towns have
been repeatedly located in vulnerable areas. In this study, for the protection of human environment, is proposed a unique
approach of urban planning and sustainable development. The study area is Trikala Prefecture (Western Thessaly, Central Greece).
An integrated evaluation of the suitable areas for urban growth and light industry development is proposed by using mainly
natural hazards as well as geological–geomorphological–geographical characteristics of the study area. The used parameters
were correlated by using the analytical hierarchical process (AHP) method and incorporated into a geographic information system
(GIS) in order to produce the corresponding suitability maps. The study area is classified in five categories of very high,
high, moderate, low, and very low suitability for urban growth and industrial development. Moreover, the spatio-temporal changes
of the urban limits are studied since 1885 for the three major towns (Trikala, Kalambaka and Pyli) of the study area. These
changes sketch out the urban growth trend. The comparison between the urban growth trend with the potential suitability for
urban growth and industrial development of these towns lead to discrepancies. These can be attributed mainly to the fact that
in the majority of cases, only geographical, social, and economical factors were used for urban development, whereas in our
study, natural hazards, geomorphological, and geographical parameters were quantified and taken into account. 相似文献
10.
Possibly the formation of the heat-island effect of cities (especially megapolises) is the most evident is consequence of
man’s impact on the climatic regime. The intensity of the heat-island effect in a city, which is characterized by a surface
air temperature drop between the urban core and its peripheral region, reaches several degrees. In this study, by means of
power function, the model connecting the intensity of the heat-island effect in a city with the size of the population and/or
city area is proposed. Qualitative model analysis, in comparison to the statistical data, allows us to allocate and classify
various regimes of cities and their dynamics. 相似文献
11.
为解析波流边界层内泥沙运动,建立了基于水动力-泥沙-床面互馈过程的波流边界层1DV泥沙数学模型,可用于模拟不同床面形态下粉沙-沙的含沙量过程。床面形态模块提供床面形态类型和相应参数;给出了平底和沙波床面粗糙高度和泥沙扩散系数的确定方法;采用了适宜粉沙及沙的制约沉速、底部参考浓度和起动剪切应力等公式;引入含沙量层化效应和制约沉降反映水动力与泥沙之间的相互影响。水槽试验资料验证表明,建立的模型较好地模拟了不同床面不同波流组合条件下的含沙量剖面。在此基础上,讨论了不同床面含沙量剖面模拟方法的差异,指出床面形态是决定含沙量变化的重要因素之一,仅通过改变床面粗糙高度不足以反映漩涡沙波床面的含沙量剖面特征。该模型可为研究波流边界层内泥沙运动和物质输运提供工具。 相似文献
12.
为模拟试验中观察到的石灰岩裂隙摩擦强度愈合现象,提出用压力溶解和应力腐蚀相结合的综合模型来模拟裂隙摩擦强度的愈合。综合模型可同时考虑压力溶解和应力腐蚀对裂隙接触面的改造作用,通过裂隙接触面积的变化表征摩擦强度的愈合。模拟结果表明：压力溶解模型低估了短控制时间内摩擦强度的愈合量,通过进一步的参数敏感性分析发现,随着控制时间的增长,温度的升高显著地提高了压力溶解模型的模拟值,而有效应力的增加对模拟值的影响相对较小;应力腐蚀模型则主要反映应力压缩引起的裂隙接触面积增长;压力溶解模型和应力腐蚀模型结合则能较好地模拟裂隙摩擦强度的愈合。因此,用压力溶解模型模拟裂隙摩擦强度愈合时,特别是在模拟短控制时间内和低温条件下力学占主导作用的愈合时,应考虑应力腐蚀引起的裂隙接触面积变化。 相似文献
13.
14.
Natural Hazards - Urban flood hazard model needs rainfall with high spatial and temporal resolutions for flood hazard analysis to better simulate flood dynamics in complex urban... 相似文献
15.
Dynamic simulation models allow an integrated representation of human and biophysical driving forces, to test their influence on land use. Dynamic models emphasise the interactions among the components of the system and take into account feedback loops and threshold effects. In this paper, the SALU model was used to generate “what-if” scenarios to explore hypotheses on the relative role of driving forces of land-use change in the Sudano-sahelian countries of Africa. The model simulations provided useful insights to better understand the processes of land-use change. Rural population growth represents a larger stimuli for land-use change than urban population growth. Demographic variables have a greater impact on land use than recurring droughts. The demographic driving forces are slow variables while rainfall is a fast variable. Recurring droughts could be viewed as trigger events, and urban population growth and consumption as mediating factors, while rural population growth defines long-term trends. Technological change defines thresholds in land use. Land-use change results from interactions between driving forces. The timing of occurrence of drought with respect to transitions in land use has a major impact on land-use change. Polices aimed at protecting pastoral land and supporting agricultural intensification both contribute to maintain pastoral activities. Simulating a conservative carrying capacity has a major impact on land use predictions. By examining environmental, social and economic implications of various land-use scenarios, the modelling approach adopted in SALU can provide support for decision-making. 相似文献
16.
饱和局部非均匀土在动载作用下力学响应的研究一直是动力学领域的难点,如何描述非均匀介质的局部结构,衡量其对宏观孔压产生和消散的影响,目前尚无成熟的理论模型和分析方法。基于有关局部非均质土波动理论的最新研究成果,建立能够描述局部结构对孔压增长和消散过程影响的动力学模型。针对周期荷载作用下的一维饱和岩土层,获得孔隙水压分布的解析解。分别以松弛时间和荷载频率为变量,定量地分析这两个参数对孔隙水压发展的影响趋势,并确定两者对孔压发展的敏感区间,以上述分析为基础,提出对应孔压极值时松弛时间和荷载频率的关系曲线。分析结论对非均匀饱和土动力学的理论研究和工程应用有一定价值。 相似文献
17.
Seagrasses are indicators of ecosystem state because they are sensitive to variations in water composition and clarity resulting from watershed-level impacts. A simulation model designed to studyZostera marina (eelgrass) habitat dynamics in a variable littoral zone environment was used to address the potential ecological responses to eutrophication in lower Chesapeake Bay. The adjacent channel boundary environment is a source of dissolved and particulate materials to the littoral zone. In the simulations, concentrations of key water quality variables in the adjacent estuarine channel boundary were either halved or doubled relative to the base case to investigate light versus nitrogen effects. The role of the seagrass meadow in littoral zone carbon and nitrogen dynamics was evaluated when meadow size was changed in the model. Particulate and dissolved organic carbon accounted for 83% of the submarine light attenuation in the seagrass meadow. In all model runs, the water column concentrations of chlorophylla and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) were below the habitat criteria proposed as critical to seagrass survival. Eelgrass community production was carefully regulated by the interactive effects of light, nitrogen, and grazing on epiphyte growth. Increased eelgrass coverage in the littoral zone led to a simulated doubling of ecosystem primary production but reduced the fraction of production by planktonic and sediment microalgae. The simulation model presented here demonstrated the importance of material input from the channel in littoral zone biogeochemical dynamics. Submarine ligh regulated primary production more strongly than inorganic nitrogen concentrations in the model. External DIN concentrations influenced seagrass survival indirectly: enrichment stimulated growth of epiphytes and phytoplankton and promoted shading of the seagras leaf. The model was based upon a unimpacted ecosystem and deteriorated water quality negatively influenced primary production greater than the increases triggered by improved condition. Increased material loading to the littoral zone reduced submarine light availability, increased phytoplankton production, lowered ecosystem production, and reduced subtidal vegetated habitat. This simulation model of the estuarine littoral zone model combines hydrodynamics, biogeochemical sources and sinks, and living resources in order to better understand structure, function, and change in aquatic ecosystems. 相似文献
18.
In this study, the effects of changes in historical and projected land use land cover (LULC) on monthly streamflow and sediment yield for the Netravati river basin in the Western Ghats of India are explored using land use maps from six time periods (1972, 1979, 1991, 2000, 2012, and 2030) and the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). The LULC for 2030 is projected using the land change modeller with the assumption of normal growth. The sensitivity analysis, model calibration, and validation indicated that the SWAT model could reasonably simulate streamflow and sediment yield in the river basin. The results showed that the spatial extent of the LULC classes of urban (1.80–9.96%), agriculture (31.38–55.75%), and water bodies (1.48–2.66%) increased, whereas that of forest (53.04–27.03%), grassland (11.17–4.41%), and bare land (1.09–0.16%) decreased from 1972 to 2030. The streamflow increased steadily (7.88%) with changes in LULC, whereas the average annual sediment yield decreased (0.028%) between 1972 and 1991 and increased later (0.029%) until 2012. However, it may increase by 0.43% from 2012 to 2030. The results indicate that LULC changes in urbanization and agricultural intensification have contributed to the increase in runoff, amounting to 428.65 and 58.67 mm, respectively, and sediment yield, amounting to 348 and 43 ton/km2, respectively, in the catchment area from 1972 to 2030. The proposed methodology can be applied to other river basins for which temporal digital LULC maps are available for better water resource management plans. 相似文献
19.
Monitoring and predicting land use change in Tripoli Metropolitan City using an integrated Markov chain and cellular automata models in GIS 总被引：5，自引：1，他引：4
The rapid development of cities in developing countries results in deteriorating of agricultural lands. The majority of these agricultural lands are converted to urban areas, which affects the ecosystems. In this research, an integrated model of Markov chain and cellular automata models was applied to simulate urban land use changes and to predict their spatial patterns in Tripoli metropolitan area, Libya. It is worth mentioning that there is not much research has been done about land use/cover change in Libyan cities. In this study, the performance of integrated CA–Markov model was assessed. Firstly, the Markov chain model was used to simulate and predict the land use change quantitatively; then, the CA model was applied to simulate the dynamic spatial patterns of changes explicitly. The urban land use change from 1984 to 2010 was modelled using the CA–Markov model for calibration to compute optimal transition rules and to predict future land use change. In validation process, the model was validated using Kappa index statistics which resulted in overall accuracy more than 85 %. Finally, based on transition rules and transition area matrix produced from calibration process, the future land use changes of 2020 and 2025 were predicted and mapped. The findings of this research showed reasonably good performance of employed model. The model results demonstrate that the study area is growing very rapidly especially in the recent decade. Furthermore, this rapid urban expansion results in remarkable continuous decrease of agriculture lands. 相似文献
20.
The paper presents a new single-surface elasto-plastic model for unsaturated cemented soils, formulated within the critical state soil mechanics framework, which should be considered as an extension to unsaturated conditions of a recently proposed constitutive law for saturated structured soils. The model has been developed with the main purpose of inspecting the mechanical instabilities induced in natural soils by bond degradation resulting from the accumulation of plastic strains and/or the changes in pore saturation. At this scope, the constitutive equations are used to simulate typical geotechnical testing conditions, whose results are then analysed in light of the controllability theory. The results of triaxial tests on an ideal fully saturated cemented soil and on the corresponding unsaturated uncemented one are first discussed, aiming at detecting the evidence of potentially unstable conditions throughout the numerical simulations. This is followed by similar analyses considering the combined effects of both the above features. For each analysed case, a simple analytical stability criterion is proposed and validated against the numerical results, generalizing the results, and highlighting the crucial role of state variables and model parameters on the possible occurrence of failure conditions.
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