共查询到19条相似文献，搜索用时 527 毫秒
1.
河北省主要农作物生产时空格局变化特征及安全评价 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
阐述主要粮食作物的时空格局变化特征,对中国粮食安全决策意义重大。基于河北省县市近15 a (2001~2015年）的农业数据资料,采用分段线性趋势以及生产指标-产量波动系数来分析河北省主要粮食作物的时空变化特征,并对河北省粮食作物进行安全评价。结果表明：从产量与播种面积来看,近15 a河北省主要粮食作物变化趋势经历了由波动减少到稳步增长2个阶段,且变化趋势显著;从空间格局变化来看,大致呈由南向北逐渐递减的规律分布,其中不同农作物分布规律各有差异;从粮食安全方面来看,河北省70%以上年份粮食波动系数均超过中国粮食安全平均水平,粮食波动系数较高,粮食安全风险较大;但从人均粮食产量来看,安全程度相对比较乐观,粮食安全状况渐趋于平稳。研究可为河北省粮食生产时空布局的优化、结构调整与社会经济协调发展提供依据。 相似文献
2.
基于统计数据,采用对数平均迪氏分解模型,从全国和省域2个尺度研究农作物播种面积、单位面积产值、增加值率、价格变化等因素对2003~2014年中国种植业增加值的影响方向与程度,以期为农业政策调整和差别化的种植业生产策略制定提供依据。结果表明：① 12 a间种植业增加值增加了25 608.4亿元;农产品生产价格指数的提升、单位面积产值的快速增加叠加上农作物播种面积的稳定增长,导致研究期间种植业增加值的明显上升;种植业增加值呈现“北进中移”的发展趋势,长江中下游区、黄淮海区、西南区等省域的种植业增加值明显增加。② 各因素对各省域种植业增加值的作用方向和作用强度呈现出一定的差异性,农产品价格指数的明显提升和单位面积产值的快速增加是大部分省域种植业增加值快速增长的主要推动力,而农作物播种面积的稳定增加也起到比较明显的正向促进作用;新疆和内蒙古农作物播种面积的正向效应明显,北京、上海和浙江农作物播种面积的负向效应明显;东部沿海省域和直辖市增加值率的负向效应比较明显。 相似文献
3.
粮食安全是国家战略安全的重要组成部分,在经济新常态下如何夯实农业基础地位、保障粮食安全成为政府与学界共同关注的命题。运用粮食产量变化系数、变异系数、空间分析方法研究了中国粮食产量时空演变格局与粮食安全问题。结果表明：2000-2003年受城镇化和工业化快速推进占用优质农田和大量青壮年劳动力进城务工的影响,粮食播种面积下降导致产量出现波动下滑;2004-2015年,粮食直补、农业税减免、基本农田保护、耕地红线等系列政策促进粮食产量实现“十二连增”。粮食作物类型时序变化表现为玉米产量大幅增长,由1990年的9 681.9×104 t增长为2015年的22 463.2×104 t,稻谷、小麦产量呈现小幅增长态势。2000-2015年中国粮食生产重心逐渐由西南向东北偏移。从各大区域对粮食总产的贡献率来看,1990-2015年南方沿海区对中国粮食总产的贡献率下降幅度最大,达-5.02%,东北地区对全国粮食总产的贡献率增幅最高,为7.75%。中国粮食产量安全区域范围在逐年增加,由2000年的11个省份增加至2015年的16个省,然而,未来粮食安全应关注粮食结构、粮食品质、食品安全、农田生态环境等方面的研究。 相似文献
4.
研究以西辽河流域为案例区,以MODIS遥感数据为基础,选取2000、2005和2010年时间点,利用NDVI时间序列信息,结合西辽河流域不同作物物候历,运用决策树提取模型,获取西辽河流域春玉米、春小麦和大豆等主要作物的空间分布信息,定量揭示了10年间西辽河流域主要粮食作物的时空分布特征。研究表明:(1)2010年西辽河流域主要粮食作物播种面积为11 965.08 km2,其中春玉米播种面积约占流域主要粮食作物的92.28%,集中在西辽河流域下游地区;春小麦播种面积占比3.14%,以西辽河流域中游面积最大;大豆播种面积占比4.58%,以西辽河上游流域面积最大。(2)2000-2005年西辽河流域主要粮食作物播种面积大幅增加,涨幅达29.77%,集中在西辽河流域下游地区。其中,春玉米播种面积增长38.99%,春小麦播种面积减少39.04%,大豆播种面积增长21.27%。(3)2005-2010年西辽河流域主要粮食作物播种面积增长缓慢,涨幅为5.18%,集中在西辽河流域下游地区。春玉米播种面积呈现增加趋势,春小麦呈现减少趋势,大豆呈减少趋势。 相似文献
5.
基于MODIS NDVI的西辽河流域主要粮食作物时空分布格局 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
研究以西辽河流域为案例区,以MODIS遥感数据为基础,选取2000、2005和2010年时间点,利用NDVI时间序列信息,结合西辽河流域不同作物物候历,运用决策树提取模型,获取西辽河流域春玉米、春小麦和大豆等主要作物的空间分布信息,定量揭示了10年间西辽河流域主要粮食作物的时空分布特征。研究表明：（1）2010年西辽河流域主要粮食作物播种面积为11 965.08 km2,其中春玉米播种面积约占流域主要粮食作物的92.28%,集中在西辽河流域下游地区;春小麦播种面积占比3.14%,以西辽河流域中游面积最大;大豆播种面积占比4.58%,以西辽河上游流域面积最大。（2）2000-2005年西辽河流域主要粮食作物播种面积大幅增加,涨幅达29.77%,集中在西辽河流域下游地区。其中,春玉米播种面积增长38.99%,春小麦播种面积减少39.04%,大豆播种面积增长21.27%。（3）2005-2010年西辽河流域主要粮食作物播种面积增长缓慢,涨幅为5.18%,集中在西辽河流域下游地区。春玉米播种面积呈现增加趋势,春小麦呈现减少趋势,大豆呈减少趋势。 相似文献
6.
基于1980-2015年的《全国农产品成本收益资料》与《山东统计年鉴》等基础资料,以耕地利用过程中的主要粮食作物和经济作物为例,探讨了山东省耕地利用集约度及其构成的时序变化特征,并进一步分析了其主要驱动因素。结果表明:(1)1980–2015年,山东省主要农作物总集约度呈上升趋势,由919.73 Yuan hm~(–2)上升到3285.06 Yuan hm~(–2),其中经济作物多年平均集约度高于粮食作物;主要农作物的人工成本和物质成本均呈增加趋势,粮食作物的物质投入远高于人工投入,而经济作物的人工投入远高于物质投入。(2)山东省主要农作物劳动集约度呈下降趋势,由1980年的501.75 d hm~(-2)下降到2015年的161.93 d hm~(–2),粮食作物相对于经济作物劳动集约度水平低且下降速率大;而资本集约度水平不断上升,由1980年的518.33Yuanhm~(–2)上升到2015年的1159.95 Yuan hm~(–2),其中种子、农家肥、化肥、农药和排灌等增产性投入比重逐渐下降,而农业机械等省工性投入比重增长显著。(3)山东省耕地利用集约度与农业劳动力数量、人均耕地面积呈显著负相关;最主要的直接驱动因素是农作物单位成本纯收益,不过在时间响应上滞后1～3年;最主要的间接驱动因素是农业政策的改革。 相似文献
7.
本文调查了云南省某蔬菜种植大县417户蔬菜种植农户自家食用的蔬菜来源、收集了其中377户农户家中的776份用于自食的蔬菜样本并采用PR-12N快速农药检测仪定性检测了其中的有机磷类和氨基甲酸酯类农药的残留情况,以研究农户对农药导致的食品安全风险的认知和自我保护行为。研究结果表明,农户们知道在蔬菜种植过程中使用农药带来的食品安全风险并且通过主要食用自家自留地中专门种植的不使用农药或者很少使用农药的蔬菜来规避这一风险。实验室检测结果表明,来自农户自留地的蔬菜样本其农药残留阳性率(6.10%)低于来自大田(13.73%)和购买于市场的蔬菜样本(12.66%),后两种来源的蔬菜样本农药残留阳性率几乎是自留地蔬菜样本阳性率的两倍而且差异具有统计学意义(X2=9.69,0.005P0.010)。提示农户的这种自我保护行为在减少农药相关的食品安全风险方面有一定效果,然而,由于在商业性蔬菜种植中大量使用农药所导致的环境污染,这种自我保护行为的效果是有限的。此外,农户的这种自我保护行为可能对新颁布的食品安全法提出的食品安全社会共治产生消极影响。 相似文献
8.
食品安全导向下的都市农业发展模式——以北京蔬菜生产为例 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
随着人们生活水平和认知能力的不断提高,人们对健康的关注和需求也变得更加强烈,因此伴随着近年来食品问题的频繁曝光,食品安全已成为社会各界最关心的议题,其中,蔬菜和牛奶等易腐食品更成为首要关注点。都市农业拥有“近距离短环节”的优势,应当成为城市蔬菜供应的重要渠道和保证城市居民蔬菜安全的主角。本文以北京为研究案例,针对食品安全导向下的城市蔬菜发展模式进行了研究。首先通过解析北京生鲜蔬菜的供应来源,总结了“长距离多环节”农业存在的蔬菜安全问题及都市农业在保证生鲜蔬菜品质安全方面的诸多优势。接着分析归纳了保证蔬菜品质安全下的几种都市农业发展模式,并以典型案例研究的方式分析了各模式的产生背景、运行管理特点。最后提出了促进都市农业发展的保障机制。 相似文献
9.
珠江三角洲地区未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的耕地损失预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
珠江三角洲地区是中国海岸带中风暴潮灾害最集中的区域之一。在全球气候变化和海平面上升的影响下,风暴潮灾害将对该地区农业生产造成巨大的损失。在借鉴相关经验与研究的基础上,建立风暴潮增水灾害耕地产量损失评估模型,选择广东省珠江三角洲地区为研究区域,以该地区的DEM、土地利用等数据为基础,通过实地调研获取当地的作物种植结构、轮作方式、作物单产、不同淹没高度下不同作物的损失率等数据资料,基于未来海平面上升及风暴潮增水的不同时间情景,估算并分析了2030、2050及2100年珠三角地区耕地受灾范围的空间分布特征及产量损失变化情况。结果表明：受气候变化的影响,未来珠三角地区风暴潮影响下的耕地淹没面积比重不断上升,其中阳江、佛山和东莞等地耕地淹没面积从2030年到2100年增加较为明显,广州和珠海的耕地淹没面积增加幅度则较为缓和。从耕地淹没造成的农业产量损失来看,蔬菜、稻谷和花生等主要作物的损失产量比重呈现增加趋势,且蔬菜的增幅最大,其次是稻谷。其中广州、江门、阳江等地稻谷、花生、蔬菜的损失产量比重均表现为持续上升。 相似文献
10.
选择老工业基地的核心代表——辽宁省作为研究对象,分析其物质流账户指标,判断了1990～2008年辽宁省直接物质投入、生产过程排放及物质总需求3个账户指标的走向趋势;运用数据包络分析(DEA)方法分析物质流账户(MFA)主要指标的综合效率,明确了辽宁省物质减量化的急切任务,对辽宁省物质流减量化发展历程进行了检验研究。研究发现:(1)辽宁省经济增长的物质投入减量化趋势存在,物质投入对环境的破坏表现仍然比较突出。(2)辽宁省直接物质投入与生产过程排放各自的综合效率呈增长趋势,总体平均效率较低,即经济发展伴随着物质投入的相对饱和及废物排放对环境的破坏。(3)辽宁省物质减量化的反弹效应升高,表现为随直接物质投入的增加,环境压力将更加严峻;减量效应的波动变化影响了相应年份的物质投入与排放。(4)1990～2008年,辽宁省共减少直接物质投入22.88亿t、减少生产过程排放5.82亿t;潜在物质减量指数高于潜在废物减排指数,折射出由于直接物质投入的持续增长,将会导致废弃物的进一步过度排放;物质减量化总缺口与废物减排总缺口均大于0,说明辽宁省物质减量化和废物减排潜力得到一定程度实现,但是与理想状态还有较大差距。 相似文献
11.
WANG Lixia GUO Zhaohui XIAO Xiyuan CHEN Tongbin LIAO Xiaoyong SONG Jie WU Bin 《地理学报》2008,18(3):353-362
A total of 219 agricultural soil and 48 vegetable samples were collected from the midstream and downstream of the Xiangjiang River (the Hengyang–Changsha section) in Hunan Province. The accumulation characteristics, spatial distribution and potential risk of heavy metals in the agricultural soils and vegetables were depicted. There are higher accu-mulations of heavy metals such as As, Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in agricultural soils, and the contents of Cd (2.44 mg kg-1), Pb (65.00 mg kg-1) and Zn (144.13 mg kg-1) are 7.97, 3.69 and 1.63 times the corresponding background contents in soils of Hunan Province, respectively. 13.2% of As, 68.5% of Cd, 2.7% of Cu, 2.7% of Ni, 8.7% of Pb and 15.1% of Zn in soil sam-ples from the investigated sites exceeded the maximum allowable heavy metal contents in the China Environmental Quality Standard for Soils (GB15618-1995, Grade II). The pollution characteristics of multi-metals in soils are mainly due to Cd. The contents of As, Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn in vegetable soils are significantly higher than the contents in paddy soils. 95.8%, 68.8%, 10.4% and 95.8% of vegetable samples exceeded the Maximum Levels of Contami-nants in Foods (GB2762-2005) for As, Cd, Ni and Pb concentrations, respectively. There are significantly positive correlations between the concentrations of Cd, Pb and Zn in vegetables and the concentrations in the corresponding vegetable soils (p<0.01). It is very necessary to focus on the potential risk of heavy metals for food safety and human health in agricultural soils and vegetables in the midstream and downstream of the Xiangjiang River, Hunan Province of China. 相似文献
12.
湘江中下游农田土壤和蔬菜的重金属污染 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
A total of 219 agricultural soil and 48 vegetable samples were collected from the midstream and downstream of the Xiangjiang River（the Hengyang-Changsha section）in Hunan Province.The accumulation characteristics,spatial distribution and potential risk of heavy metals in the agricultural soils and vegetables were depicted.There are higher accumulations of heavy metals such as As,Cd,Cu,Ni,Pb and Zn in agricultural soils,and the contents of Cd（2.44 mg kg^-1 ）,Pb（65.00 mg kg^-1 ）and Zn（144.13 mg kg^-1 ）are 7.97,3.69 and 1.63 times the corresponding background contents in soils of Hunan Province,respectively. 13.2%of As,68.5%of Cd,2.7%of Cu,2.7%of Ni,8.7%of Pb and 15.1%of Zn in soil samples from the investigated sites exceeded the maximum allowable heavy metal contents in the China Environmental Quality Standard for Soils（GB15618-1995,Grade Ⅱ）.The pollution characteristics of multi-metals in soils are mainly due to Cd.The contents of As,Cd,Cu,Pb and Zn in vegetable soils are significantly higher than the contents in paddy soils.95.8%, 68.8%,10.4%and 95.8%of vegetable samples exceeded the Maximum Levels of Contaminants in Foods（GB2762-2005）for As,Cd,Ni and Pb concentrations,respectively.There are significantly positive correlations between the concentrations of Cd,Pb and Zn in vegetables and the concentrations in the corresponding vegetable soils（p〈0.01）.It is very necessary to focus on the potential risk of heavy metals for food safety and human health in agricultural soils and vegetables in the midstream and downstream of the Xiangjiang River,Hunan Province of China. 相似文献
13.
Food safety is an important issue for the development of the national economy and society. Studying regional food supply and demand from the perspective of land resource carrying capacity can provide new references for regional resource sustainability. This study uses the data from farmer and herdsmen household questionnaires, statistical data, land use data, and other sources to construct a land resource carrying capacity (LCC) assessment framework, targeting the food supply and demand of residents in representative areas, specifically the typical grassland pastoral areas, sandy pastoral areas and agro-pastoral areas on the Xilin Gol grassland transects. The three food nutritional indicators of calories, protein and fat were selected for analyzing the balance of land resource carrying capacity. We found that: 1) Along the Xilin Gol grassland, the main local food supply showed a shift from meat and milk to grains, vegetables and fruits. 2) From north to south along the grassland transects, the calorie intake increased gradually, while the intake of protein and fat was highest in pastoral areas and lowest in agricultural areas. 3) The overall land resource carrying capacity of the Xilin Gol grassland transects was in a surplus state, but the land carrying capacity of typical grassland pastoral area was higher than the two other types of areas. This study provides an empirical reference for the sustainable development of regional food nutrition. 相似文献
14.
湘江中下游农田土壤和蔬菜的重金属污染 总被引：70，自引：3，他引：67
从湖南省湘江中下游衡阳-长沙段沿岸采集219 个农田土壤样品和48 个蔬菜样品, 测 试其中As、Cd、Cr、Cu、Ni、Pb、Zn 等7 种重金属元素的含量, 并结合GIS 作图与数据统 计, 对农田土壤中重金属空间分布、土壤和蔬菜中重金属富集特征以及其潜在风险进行分析。 结果表明, 农田土壤中As、Cd、Cu、Ni、Pb 和Zn 含量均大于湖南省相应土壤重金属含量背 景值, Cd (2.44 mg kg-1)、Pb (65.00 mg kg-1)、Zn (144.13 mg kg-1) 含量分别超标7.97、3.69 和 1.63 倍。与我国《土壤环境质量标准》(GB15618-1995) 中II 级标准(pH 6.5~7.5) 比较, 土壤 As、Cd、Cu、Ni、Pb 和Zn 含量的超标率分别为13.2%、68.5%、2.7%、2.7%、8.7%和 15.1%, 表现为以Cd 为主的多种重金属混合污染。菜地土壤中As、Cd、Cu、Pb 和Zn 的含 量( 几何均值) 分别高于水稻土As、Cd、Cu、Pb 和Zn 含量。与《食品中污染物限量》 (GB2762-2005) 等标准比较, 蔬菜As、Cd、Ni、Pb 含量的样本超标率分别为95.8%、68.8%、 10.4%和95.8%; 蔬菜Cd、Pb、Zn 含量与相应土壤的Cd、Pb、Zn 含量存在极显著的相关性 (P < 0.01)。湘江中下游的农田土壤和蔬菜中重金属污染的潜在风险值得关注。 相似文献
15.
CAI Limei HUANG Lanchun ZHOU Yongzhang XU Zhencheng PENG Xiaochun YAO Ling'ai ZHOU Yang PENG Ping'an 《地理学报》2010,20(1):121-134
A total of 118 of agricultural soil and 43 of vegetable samples were collected from Dongguan City, Guangdong, China. The spatial distribution, sources, accumulation characteristics and potential risk of heavy metals in the agricultural soils and vegetables were depicted in details by three different approaches, including total contents of eight metal elements in soils and vegetables, GIS maps and multivariate analysis of heavy metals in soils in the study. The results show that there are higher accumulation of heavy metals such as Cu, Zn, Ni, Pb, Cd and Hg in agricultural soils, and the contents of Pb (65.38 mg kg?1) and Hg (0.24 mg kg?1) are 1.82 and 2.82 times of the background contents of the corresponding heavy metals in soils of Guangdong Province, respectively. There are about 3.4% of Cu, 5.9% of Ni, 1.7% of Cd and 28% of Hg in all collected soil samples from all investigated sites which have overran the contents for heavy metals of the China Environmental Quality Standard for Soils (GB15618-1995, Grade Ⅱ). The pollution characteristics of multi-metals in soils are mainly reflected by Hg. There are different sources to eight metal elements in soils, Cu, Zn, Ni, Cr and As are predominantly derived from parent materials, and Pb, Hg and Cd are affected by anthropogenic activities. The spatial distribution shows that the Cu, Zn, Ni, Cr, Pb, As and Hg contents of agricultural soils are high in the west and low in the east, and Cd contents are high in the northwest, southeast and low in the southwest in Dongguan. The ratios of vegetable samples which Ni, Pb and As concentrations higher than the Maximum Levels of Contaminants in Foods (GB2762-2005) are 4.7%, 16.3% and 48.8%, respectively. The order of bio-concentration factors (BCF) of heavy metals in vegetables is Cd > Zn > Cu > As > Ni > Hg > Cr > Pb. It is necessary to focus on potential risk of heavy metals for food safety and human’s health from agricultural soils and vegetables in Dongguan City, Guangdong Province. 相似文献
16.
污染农田中植物的砷含量及其健康风险评估--以湖南郴州邓家塘为例 总被引：23，自引：1，他引：22
本研究系统调查了湖南郴州邓家塘砷污染区水稻田抛荒后自然恢复的植被和旱地(蔬菜)两大农业土地利用类型的植物中砷含量,分析了当地居民砷暴露途径,并进行污染区健康风险评估。结果表明:砷污染程度对抛荒农田自然恢复植被类型有显著影响。在轻度污染条件下,植物物种数量中等但总生物量最大;在中度污染条件下,植物物种数量最多;在严重污染条件下,植物物种数量最少且总生物量最小。恶性杂草雀稗是自然恢复植被物种丰富度的直接控制因子。当地蔬菜可食部位砷浓度超标现象严重,呈现出叶菜类>葱蒜类>根茎类>果菜类的趋势。人体通过食用蔬菜摄入的砷量在春夏和秋冬季节分别为每日41μg/kg体重和每日29μg/kg体重,都超过了WHO限定的安全标准(每日21μg/kg体重)。 相似文献
17.
东莞市农田土壤和蔬菜重金属含量分析(英文) 总被引：7，自引：1，他引：6
A total of 118 of agricultural soil and 43 of vegetable samples were collected from Dongguan City,Guangdong,China. The spatial distribution,sources,accumulation charac-teristics and potential risk of heavy metals in the agricultural soils and vegetables were de-picted in details by three different approaches,including total contents of eight metal ele-ments in soils and vegetables,GIS maps and multivariate analysis of heavy metals in soils in the study. The results show that there are higher accumulation of heavy metals such as Cu,Zn,Ni,Pb,Cd and Hg in agricultural soils,and the contents of Pb (65.38 mg kg-1) and Hg (0.24 mg kg-1) are 1.82 and 2.82 times of the background contents of the corresponding heavy metals in soils of Guangdong Province,respectively. There are about 3.4% of Cu,5.9% of Ni,1.7% of Cd and 28% of Hg in all collected soil samples from all investigated sites which have overran the contents for heavy metals of the China Environmental Quality Standard for Soils (GB15618-1995,Grade Ⅱ ). The pollution characteristics of multi-metals in soils are mainly reflected by Hg. There are different sources to eight metal elements in soils,Cu,Zn,Ni,Cr and As are predominantly derived from parent materials,and Pb,Hg and Cd are affected by anthropogenic activities. The spatial distribution shows that the Cu,Zn,Ni,Cr,Pb,As and Hg contents of agricultural soils are high in the west and low in the east,and Cd contents are high in the northwest,southeast and low in the southwest in Dongguan. The ratios of vegetable samples which Ni,Pb and As concentrations higher than the Maximum Levels of Con-taminants in Foods (GB2762-2005) are 4.7%,16.3% and 48.8%,respectively. The order of bio-concentration factors (BCF) of heavy metals in vegetables is Cd Zn Cu As Ni Hg Cr Pb. It is necessary to focus on potential risk of heavy metals for food safety and hu-man's health from agricultural soils and vegetables in Dongguan City,Guangdong Province. 相似文献
18.
This article investigates the sources of vegetables consumed by farmers, their perception of pesticide-related food safety risks and the behaviors they engage in to protect themselves, and explores the implications for the social co-governance (shehui gongzhi) of food safety emphasized by China’s recent Food Safety Law. The research site is a county in Yunnan Province where vegetable growing is the major source of income and livelihood for local farmers. We surveyed 417 farmers and collected 776 vegetable samples from 377 surveyed farmer households and tested them for organophosphate and carbamate pesticide residues using PR-12N Rapid Detection Instrument for Pesticide Residues. The results showed that farmers know about the risks to food safety caused by pesticides used in vegetable growing and they purposely avoid these risks by mainly consuming vegetables planted in home gardens or private plots that use little or no pesticides. Vegetable samples from these private plots had the lowest positive rate of pesticide residues (6.10%), compared with vegetable samples from commercial farmland (13.73%) and markets (12.66%), and the difference was statistically significant (X2=9.69,0.005相似文献
19.
Biola K. Badmos Grace B. Villamor Sampson K. Agodzo Samuel N. Odai Olabisi S. Badmos 《Singapore journal of tropical geography》2021,42(1):65-84
In this study, the Land Use Dynamic Simulator model was applied to investigate the impact of farm credit as an adaptation strategy to cope with effects of climate variability on agricultural land‐use change and crop production in the Vea watershed in Ghana. The authors identified the determinants of crop choices within the landscape (e.g., farm household and biophysical characteristics of farm plot). The crop choice sub‐model was then linked to the crop yield sub‐model to determine the yields of selected crops. In adapting to the impacts of climate variability, the maize credit adoption sub‐model under the maize cultivation credit scenario was integrated into decision‐making. This was simulated for a 20‐year period, and compared with the business‐as‐usual scenario. Under the simulated maize credit scenario, maize adopters increased from about 20 per cent to about 50 per cent and the area allocated for maize cultivation significantly increased by about 266 per cent. Consequently, the average annual aggregated household crop yield increased by 6.3 per cent higher than in the business‐as‐usual scenario. This simulation study shows that access to maize credit can significantly influence agricultural land‐use change and food availability in the study area. However, although access to farm credit may translate into food availability, the sustainability of this strategy is questionable. 相似文献