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1.
The results of studying the stability of sample estimates of statistical parameters for different segments of the initial time series of Neman River annual runoff values at Grodno Town in 1808–2000 are presented. Segments of the series with different extent of anthropogenic impact on runoff and types of atmospheric circulation are considered. Statistically significant changes were found to exist in the dynamics of Neman River annual runoff due to both natural-climatic and anthropogenic variations in the hydrological cycle. 相似文献
2.
With the help of a stationary balance model, the mean annual amounts of P retained in the chain of the Volga water reservoirs are sequentially calculated. It is found that with the current anthropogenic load, the Volga River regulation leads to a twofold decrease in the P runoff into the Caspian Sea. 相似文献
3.
A method for the assessment of water balance components in a large water basin is discussed. The assessment is based on data on atmospheric precipitation and river runoff. The major components of annual water balance are determined for the Volga Basin for a period of 109 years (from 1892/1893 to 2000/2001). The main statistical characteristics of time series of water balance elements are estimated and their correlation is calculated. 相似文献
4.
Correlation between the Volga runoff, the Caspian Sea level increments (CSL), and the amount of precipitation is considered. The variables involved are averaged over seasons, periods, and the year. Variations in the obtained correlations within the 20th century are analyzed. A method is proposed for determining the optimal time interval, within which precipitation is to be taken into account in predicting the Volga runoff and CSL. Seasonal anomalies in the precipitation and annual Volga runoff are analyzed for low-water and high-water periods. Linear trends of seasonal sums of precipitation for the period from 1891 to 1998 and in individual parts of this period are evaluated. 相似文献
5.
Long-term natural and human-induced variations in water and sediment runoff in the Danube Delta head were studied on the basis of analysis of an extremely long series of observations (1840–2002). A considerable reduction of sediment runoff in the second half of the 20th century related to sediment accumulation in reservoirs was revealed. It was found that human activities had an insignificant impact on the water runoff variations and the period of 1961–2002 turned out to be abnormally water-abundant. 相似文献
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The results of environmental monitoring of surface-water quality in the Lower Volga Basin are given. The results of regular observations are differentiated. Water pollution is assessed based on the criterion of seasonal occurrence of chemicals in water at gage sections classified by zonal principle. An integrated estimate demonstrates considerable variations within a year and an increase in the normal annual concentrations of some pollutants of both natural and anthropogenic origin. 相似文献
8.
The ability of present-day climate models to reproduce the mean annual regime of river runoff and its within-year distribution
is evaluated for major Eurasian basins, including the basins of the Volga and Amur and the major Siberian rivers: the Ob,
Yenisei, and Lena. Estimates are made for possible variations in seasonal runoff and characteristics of daily precipitation
(the amount, rate, and probability) in drainage areas for the late XXI century. The analysis involved the use of the results
of calculations by climatic general circulation models carried out under international Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. 相似文献
9.
Multi-regression, hydrologic sensitivity and hydrologic model simulations were applied to quantify the climate change and anthropogenic intervention impacts on the Lower Zab River basin (LZRB). The Pettitt, precipitation-runoff double cumulative curve (PR-DCC) and Mann–Kendall methods were used for the change points and significant trend analyses in the annual streamflow. The long-term runoff series from 1979 to 2013 was first divided into two main periods: a baseline (1979–1997) and an anthropogenic intervention period (1998–2013). The findings show that the mean annual streamflow changes were consistent using the three methods. In addition, climate variability was the main driver, which led to streamflow reduction with contributions of 66–97% during 2003–2013, whereas anthropogenic interventions caused reductions of 4–34%. Moreover, to enhance the multi-model combination concept and explore the simple average method (SAM), Hydrologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV), Génie Rural a Daily 4 parameters (GR4J) and Medbasin models have been successfully applied. 相似文献
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In the Sahel, there are few long‐term data series available to estimate the climatic and anthropogenic impacts on runoff in small catchments. Since 1950, land clearing has enhanced runoff. The question is whether and by how much this anthropogenic effect offsets the current drought. To answer this question, a physically based distributed hydrological model was used to simulate runoff in a small Sahelian catchment in Niger, from the 1950–1998 rain‐series. The simulation was carried out for three soil surface states of the catchment (1950, 1975 and 1992). The catchment is characterized by an increase in cultivated land, with associated fallow, from 6% in 1950 to 56% in 1992, together with an increase in the extent of eroded land (from 7 to 16%), at the expense of the savanna. Effects of climate and land use are first analysed separately: irrespective of the land cover state, the simulated mean annual runoff decreases by about 40% from the wet period (1950–1969) to the dry period (1970–1998); calculated on the 1950–1998 rainfall‐series, the changes that occurred in land cover between 1950 and 1992 multiplies the mean annual runoff by a factor close to three. The analysis of a joint climatic and anthropogenic change shows that the transition from a wet period under a ‘natural’ land cover (1950) to a dry period under a cultivated land cover (1992) results in an increase in runoff of the order of 30 to 70%. At the scale of a small Sahelian catchment, the anthropogenic impact on runoff is probably more important than that of drought. This figure for relative increase in runoff contributions to ponds, preferential sites of seepage to groundwater, is less than that currently estimated for aquifer recharge, which has been causing a significant continuous water table rise over the same period. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Long-term observational data are used to compare and analyze time and space variations in the concentrations of nutrients in the water of major rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea and assess the nutrients runoff into the sea. Annual variations in the normal monthly values of river runoff and nutrient compound concentrations and input into the sea are considered (18 compounds and considered for the Volga, Ural, Terek, Sulak, and Samur, and 7 compounds are considered for the Kura). The Volga contribution to nutrient input into the sea is found to vary from 77 to 94% with the average of 86%. 相似文献
13.
V. N. Mikhailov D. V. Magritsky V. I. Kravtsova M. V. Mikhailova M. V. Isupova 《Water Resources》2012,39(1):11-43
Regularities in the response of the mouths of major rivers, flowing into the Caspian Sea, to large-scale variations in its
level and river water runoff and sediment yield are considered. Changes in the morphological structure and hydrological regime
of the Volga, Terek, Sulak, Ural, and Kura mouths have been analyzed in both geological past and separately for three modern
periods: a considerable drop in Caspian Sea level before 1978, its abrupt rise in 1978–1995, and a relative stabilization
in the subsequent years. Specific features were identified in the hydrological-morphological processes in different mouths,
caused by the differences in river sediment yields, and the slopes of delta surface and mouth nearshore beds. Some theoretical
and methodological approaches were verified in the analysis and evaluation of the processes under consideration. The obtained
results of studies of the mouths of rivers flowing into the Caspian Sea can be regarded as examples and analogues in the assessment
of processes, which take place at the mouths of other Russian and world rivers at present and can take place in the future
under anticipated natural and anthropogenic variations in sea level and river runoff. 相似文献
14.
M. V. Bolgov 《Water Resources》2010,37(3):297-305
An approach is proposed to assessing the reliability of functioning of a complex water management system under the conditions
of a long dry period. The approach involves the specification of scenarios of long-term changes in the annual runoff. A method
of simulation of artificial series of inflow to elements of water management system is proposed. Criteria for the choice of
estimated inflow series are substantiated. The results of water management and hydropower calculations for different scenarios
(models) are discussed. Challenges that may face the water management complex of the Volga basin in extremely dry periods
are formulated. 相似文献
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Three stages were identified in the development of meandering rivers and the formation of floodplains with natural levees
in Northern Eurasia: the development of rivers with size larger than that of the modern ones; the development of rivers smaller
than the modern ones; and the development of rivers of the present-day morphodynamic type. Small oxbows of the second stage
are widespread in the floodplains of lowland rivers in Northern Eurasia. The largest amount of floodplain segments with such
oxbows can be seen in the forest zone, mostly in the coniferous forests of northeastern European Russia. The available radiocarbon
datings show that river channel were significantly decreasing in size and the steepness of meanders was increasing during
the Atlantic period of the Holocene. Data on changes in the size of river channels were used to evaluate the ratios between
paleo- and modern discharges and to construct a map of difference between runoff depths in the Holocene optimum and in the
present and assess changes in water runoff volume. The discharges in the basins of the Vyatka and middle Irtysh accounted
for as little as 40–50% of their current values. North, east, and west from those basins, the ratio of ancient and present-day
discharges increases. During the Holocene optimum, water runoff from the northern megaslope of the East European Plain was
∼180 km3/year, which is 30% less than the present runoff from the same drainage area. The annual runoff in Volga basin was ∼134 km3, which is almost half as large as the present value. The runoff in Don and Dnieper basins during the Holocene optimum was
40% less, and that in the Ob and Irtysh basin was 30% less than the present one. If we accept the hypothesis that the Holocene
optimum was a climate analogue of global anthropogenic warming of the mid-XXI century, the obtained estimates of the state
of water resources in Northern Eurasia acquire great prognostic importance. 相似文献
17.
Time series of the river runoff into the Arctic Ocean over the period 1921–1999 are obtained through generalization of the available detailed hydrologic data on the drainage basin of the Arctic Ocean and estimates of the river runoff from areas in which no hydrometric observations have been made. Trends in the annual and seasonal river runoff from different parts of the basin are analyzed both for the entire period under study and for the last decades, which in the northern hemisphere are characterized by the most intense rise in air temperature. Potential future changes in the runoff of the main rivers of the basin and in the total river runoff into the ocean are discussed. 相似文献
18.
A mathematical model based on average long-term data on water temperature, illumination, transparency, and nutrient content is used to calculate annual variations in the concentrations of organic and inorganic fractions of nutrients (C, N, Si, and P) in ten water areas in the Caspian Sea. The eutrophication of sea environment is examined with special emphasis on the increase in the biomass of aquatic animals (in particular, phyto- and zooplankton), the rate and duration of periods of plankton blooming, and changes in the conditions of nutrient limiting of primary production processes in different parts of the sea. Relationships between the inorganic components of N and P in river runoff and sea water areas are established. The obtained Nmin/DIP ratios show P primary production to be limited in the zone of influence of the Volga runoff, P and N primary production to be limited in other northern parts of the sea, and N primary production to be mainly limited in the middle and southern parts of the sea. 相似文献
19.
Results of field studies of water chemistry in the Upper Volga and some its tributaries in the reach between the Volga source and Tver City, as well as in lakes Sterzh, Vselug, Peno, and Volgo, which are constituent parts of the Verkhnevolzhskoe Reservoir, as well as Selizharovskii Pool of Lake Seliger. The year-to-year and season-to-season dynamics of the hydrochemical regime of the examined water bodies and their variations downstream the Volga under the effect of natural and anthropogenic factors are analyzed. 相似文献
20.
Annual runoff assessment in arid and semiarid Mediterranean watersheds under the Budyko's framework 
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下载免费PDF全文 The solution of many practical water problems is strictly connected to the availability of reliable and widespread information about runoff. The estimation of mean annual runoff and its interannual variability for any basin over a wide region, even if ungauged, would be fundamental for both water resources assessment and planning and for water quality analysis. Starting from these premises, the main aim of this work is to show a new approach, based on the Budyko's framework, for mapping the mean annual surface runoff and deriving the probability distribution of the annual runoff in arid and semiarid watersheds. As a case study, the entire island of Sicily, Italy, is here proposed. First, time series data of annual rainfall, runoff, and reconstructed series of potential evapotranspiration have been combined within the Budyko's curve framework to obtain regional rules for rainfall partitioning between evapotranspiration and runoff. Then this knowledge has been used to infer long‐term annual runoff at the point scale by means of interpolated rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. The long‐term annual runoff raster layer has been obtained at each pixel of the drainage network, averaging the upstream runoff using advanced spatial analysis techniques within a GIS environment. Furthermore, 2 alternative methods are here proposed to derive the distribution of annual runoff, under the assumption of negligible interannual variations of basin water storage. The first method uses Monte Carlo simulations, combining rainfall and potential evapotranspiration randomly extracted from independent distributions. The second method is based on a simplification of the Budyko's curve and analytically provides the annual runoff distribution as the derived distribution of annual rainfall and potential evapotranspiration. Results are very encouraging: long‐term annual runoff and its distribution have been derived and compared with historical records at several gauged stations, obtaining satisfactory matching. 相似文献