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The results of recent studies carried out in the State Hydrological Institute were generalized to present new data on the
estimation of long-term dynamics of water resources and water use for all administrative regions of RF, as well as current
and anticipated variations in water resources in the nearest future. Estimates were constructed for changes in water use,
load on water resources, and water availability, especially in the recent two decades, during which Russia experienced most
significant changes in the major factors determining the state of water resources, i.e., climate change and socio-economic
transformations. Estimates are given for constituent entities of RF and for hydroclimatic regions of the country as a whole. 相似文献
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Anna E. Klene Frederick E. Nelson John Nevins Don Rogers Nikolay I. Shiklomanov 《Geomorphology》2002,47(2-4)
Permafrost and periglacial geomorphology are absent from the science curriculum in most secondary schools in the United States. This is an unfortunate situation given the recent increases in development and environmental concerns in northern latitudes and high-mountain areas, and the interesting examples of basic scientific principles found in the history of research on periglacial geomorphology and permafrost. In 1997 and 1998, a University of Delaware research group studying permafrost and periglacial geomorphology in northern Alaska participated in the National Science Foundation's (NSF) Teachers Experiencing the Antarctic and Arctic (TEA) Program. In each of these years, a high school teacher and a student traveled as part of the research team to the North Slope of Alaska. They learned about the landscape, collected active-layer thickness and temperature measurements, and assisted in data analysis. Results from studies of active-layer thickness variability and ground temperature contributed to a series of long-term observations and international research on the impacts of global climate change. Since their expeditions, the teachers have shared their experiences with their classrooms and communities in several ways, including public lectures and the Internet. Classroom activities are available to the public through the TEA web site (http://tea.rice.edu). This experience may heighten public awareness of permafrost and contribute to it becoming a useful part of the secondary curriculum. 相似文献
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Although maps of active-layer thickness have useful roles in geocryology, polar ecology, and hydrology, a lack of geographically distributed data at appropriate scales has prevented their widespread implementation. The n-factor (ratio of temperature at the soil surface to that in the air) has considerable potential as a tool for mapping active-layer thickness and other geocryological parameters by providing refinements to relatively simple analytic solutions for the depth of thaw. Although temperature data from the soil surface under representative land-cover units have rarely been collected historically, recent advancements in data-logger technology allow the variability of soil-surface temperature regimes to be assessed inexpensively over small temporal and spatial intervals. Temperature data collected in the air at 2 m height and at the soil surface within 10 representative land-cover units in the Kuparuk River region of north-central Alaska were used to compute seasonal n-factor values for specific vegetation-soil associations. The resulting values were used with degree-day sums, a digital elevation model, and a digital map of vegetation to compute a modified Stefan estimate of thaw depth over a 26,278 km2 area. Comparisons between maps based on the n-factor and an empirical, data-intensive method show similar performance. Given sufficient ancillary data, the n-factor provides a useful tool for mapping active-layer thickness over large areas without intensive in situ data collection. [Key words: Alaska, permafrost, active-layer thickness, frozen ground, mapping, temperature.] 相似文献
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Yu. A. Izrael S. M. Semenov O. A. Anisimov Yu. A. Anokhin A. A. Velichko B. A. Revich I. A. Shiklomanov 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2007,32(9):551-556
Basic results of IPCC Working Group II, derived in the process of the work at the Fourth Assessment Report, are considered in brief. The results are given in conformity with the Summary for Policymakers adopted at the Plenary Meeting of Working Group II in Brussels on April 6, 2007. The authors’ comments on some results connected with the key vulnerable elements of natural and socioeconomic systems are given in the conclusion. 相似文献
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Water Resources - Changes in the runoff of rivers flowing into the Arctic Ocean caused by climate changes and increasing anthropogenic load lead to foreseeable transformations of hydrological... 相似文献
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The permafrost regions currently occupy about one quarter of the Earth's land area.Climate-change scenarios indicate that global warming will be amplified in the polarregions, and could lead to a large reduction in the geographic extent of permafrost.Development of natural resources, transportation networks, and human infrastructurein the high northern latitudes has been extensive during the second half of the twentiethcentury. In areas underlain by ice-rich permafrost, infrastructure could be damagedseverely by thaw-induced settlement of the ground surface accompanying climatechange. Permafrost near the current southern margin of its extent is degrading, andthis process may involve a northward shift in the southern boundary of permafrostby hundreds of kilometers throughout much of northern North America and Eurasia.A long-term increase in summer temperatures in the high northern latitudes couldalso result in significant increases in the thickness of the seasonally thawed layerabove permafrost, with negative impacts on human infrastructure located on ice-richterrain. Experiments involving general circulation model scenarios of global climatechange, a mathematical solution for the thickness of the active layer, and digitalrepresentations of permafrost distribution and ice content indicates potential forsevere disruption of human infrastructure in the permafrost regions in response toanthropogenic climate change. A series of hazard zonation maps depicts generalizedpatterns of susceptibility to thaw subsidence. Areas of greatest hazard potential includecoastlines on the Arctic Ocean and parts of Alaska, Canada, and Siberia in whichsubstantial development has occurred in recent decades. 相似文献
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I. A. Shiklomanov V. Yu. Georgievskii V. I. Babkin Zh. A. Balonishnikova 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2010,35(1):13-19
New data on water resources of the Russian Federation and their long-term dynamics are given. The distribution of water resources
according to federal districts is considered. Results of analysis of modern changes of river run-off intra-year distribution
under the influence of climatic factors are represented. The dynamics of water use for different economic needs is given.
The evaluation of water resources and water availability changes in perspective is executed. 相似文献
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I. A. Shiklomanov V. Yu. Georgievskii Z. D. Kopaliani 《Russian Meteorology and Hydrology》2007,32(12):774-783
Scientific and methodological principles of organization and implementation of modern state monitoring of water objects, in accordance with a new Water Code of the Russian Federation, are considered with a special reference to the Kuban River basin. An integrated analysis of the modern state and efficiency of the system of observations of water objects in the Kuban River basin is performed. A concept is suggested to modify the available observational system. It includes recommendations to take into account the state of the river drainage system as an object of monitoring, organization of regime and operational monitoring, organization of a unique integrated database, implementation of a complex of scientific and methodological activities, and organizational and technical actions that would provide the maximum correspondence with the tasks and requirements of the modern state monitoring of water objects. The developments for the Kuban River can be used for other river basins and regions with intensive economic activity. 相似文献
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Time series of the river runoff into the Arctic Ocean over the period 1921–1999 are obtained through generalization of the available detailed hydrologic data on the drainage basin of the Arctic Ocean and estimates of the river runoff from areas in which no hydrometric observations have been made. Trends in the annual and seasonal river runoff from different parts of the basin are analyzed both for the entire period under study and for the last decades, which in the northern hemisphere are characterized by the most intense rise in air temperature. Potential future changes in the runoff of the main rivers of the basin and in the total river runoff into the ocean are discussed. 相似文献
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