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1.
《大气与海洋》2013,51(3):361-376
Abstract The goal of this study is to evaluate the impact of incorporating the marine surface winds retrieved from the ERS‐2 scatterometer in the Canadian three‐dimensional variational analysis system, (3D‐var). The aspects of the 3D‐var most relevant to the assimilation of surface ‐wind observations and a general method for resolving the directional ambiguity of the retrieved scatterometer ‐winds are first described. A comparison ‐with 6‐h forecasted winds is then made to demonstrate that these data are of high quality, but exhibit a speed bias that can be removed by increasing their amplitudes by about 5%. The analysis increment from a single scatterometer wind observation is calculated to illustrate the response of the 3D‐var to surface wind observations. As a consequence of the forecast error covariance model, the assimilation of surface wind observations produces meteorologically consistent increments for both the rotational and divergent wind components and the mass field. The results from a series of cross‐validation experiments using ship‐based wind data demonstrate a positive impact of assimilating scatterometer winds and the effectiveness of a simple method for estimating and removing the speed bias. The impact of assimilating scatterometer data within a short assimilation cycle is also evaluated. Overall, the results show that including scatterometer data in the analysis decreases the 6‐h forecast error of surface wind by 13%. Over the northern extra‐tropics the improvement is only 4% and for the southern extra‐tropics it is 16%. Results from a series of two‐day forecasts produced using the analyses from the assimilation cycles with and without retrieved scatterometer winds included are also presented. Using radiosonde observations at 850 hPa, 500 hPa, 250 hPa and 100 hPafor verification, the impact on the forecasts is nearly neutral in the northern hemisphere and the tropics. Conversely, a significant positive impact is found on both wind and mass fields in the southern hemisphere over the entire two‐day forecast. 相似文献
2.
Sea surface winds from the Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) are important inputs to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. The Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) recently updated the OSCAT retrieval algorithm in order to generate better products. An attempt has been made in this study to evaluate the updated OSCAT winds using buoy observations and the 6-hour short-term forecasts from the T574L64 model from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) during the 2011 monsoon. The results of the OSCAT evaluation are also compared with those from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) on-board the Meteorological Operational Satellite-A (MetOp-A) which were evaluated in the same way. The root mean square differences (RMSDs) for wind speed and direction, are within 2?m?s?1 and 20° for both scatterometers. The RMSDs for OSCAT are slightly higher than those for ASCAT, and this difference may be attributed in part to the difference in frequency and resolution of the scatterometer payloads. The bias and standard deviation for ASCAT winds are also lower than those for OSCAT winds with respect to the model short-range forecast, and this can be attributed to the regular assimilation of ASCAT winds in the model. 相似文献
3.
A mesoscale boundary-layer model (BLM) is used for running 12-h low-level wind forecasts for the La Plata River region. Several
experiments are performed with different boundary conditions that include operational forecasts of the Eta/CPTEC model, local
observations, as well as a combination of both. The BLM wind forecasts are compared to the surface wind observations of five
weather stations during the period November 2003–April 2004. Two accuracy measures are used: the hit rate or percentage of
cases with agreement in the wind direction sector, and the root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of the horizontal wind components.
The BLM surface wind forecasts are always more accurate, since its averaged hit rate is three times greater and its averaged
RMSE is one half smaller than the Eta forecasts. Despite the large errors in the surface winds displayed by the Eta forecasts,
its 850 hPa winds and surface temperature forecasts are able to drive the BLM model to obtain surface winds forecasts with
smaller errors than the Eta model. An additional experiment demonstrates that the advantage of using the BLM model for forecasting
low-level winds over the La Plata River region is the result of a more appropriate definition of the land–river surface temperature
contrast. The particular formulation that the BLM model has for the geometry of the river coasts is fundamental for resolving
the smaller scale details of the low-level local circulation. The main conclusion of the study is that operational low-level
wind forecasts for the La Plata River region can be improved by running the BLM model forced by the Eta operational forecasts.
L. Sraibman and G. J. Berri—Members of Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) of Argentina.
An erratum to this article can be found at 相似文献
4.
The coverage of satellite derived winds over the Indian region including Indian Ocean has improved by the operation of India’s first dedicated satellite for meteorology, KALPANA-1 since 12 September 2002. Atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs) are being derived at the India Meteorological Department (IMD), New Delhi on a routine operational basis. The AMV is recognized as an important source of information for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and is particularly suited for tracking the low and middle level clouds mainly because of the good contrast in albedo between target and background, whereas the upper level moisture pattern can be better tracked by water vapor winds (WVW) using water vapor (WV) channel (5.7–7.1 μm). The WVWs proved to be a very useful wind product for predicting the future track position of cyclones, well marked low pressure areas or heavy rainfall warnings in advance and so, often these types of weather systems are steered by the upper level winds. In the present study, the quantitative as well as qualitative analyses of KALPANA-1 WVW have been carried out. The primary change introduced is making use of first guess (FG) forecast fields obtained from National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and Global Forecast System (GFS), at a resolution of 1° × 1° with T-382/L64 instead of forecasts of operational limited area model (LAM) of IMD. The overall results showed a consistent improvement after using improved FG wind fields from NCEP instead of LAM with a significantly increasing number of good qualities of KALPANA-1 derived WVWs. The quantitative error analysis has also been carried out for the validation of WVWs using collocated radiosonde observations for the period from May 2008 to December 2009 and the available mid-upper level winds derived from METEOSAT-7 data for the period from October to December 2008. The analysis shows that after modification, the RMSE and bias of KALPANA-1 WVWs have reduced considerably. Further, to assess the impact of these winds, a high resolution mesoscale model WRF 3DVAR system is used in the present study for the analysis of tropical cyclone ‘Sidr’. The results show that the wind assimilation experiments (analysis at 200 hPa) using upper level KALPANA-1 WVW have great potential for improving the NWP analysis. The impact of additional wind data in the model is found to be positive and beneficial. 相似文献
5.
Xingang Fan Jeremy R. Krieger Jing Zhang Xiangdong Zhang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2013,148(1):207-226
To achieve a high-quality simulation of the surface wind field in the Chukchi/Beaufort Sea region, quick scatterometer (QuikSCAT) ocean surface winds were assimilated into the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting model by using its three-dimensional variational data assimilation system. The SeaWinds instrument on board the polar-orbiting QuikSCAT satellite is a specialized radar that measures ice-free ocean surface wind speed and direction at a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km. A total of eight assimilation case studies over two five-day periods, 1–5 October 2002 and 20–24 September 2004, were performed. The simulation results with and without the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds were then compared with QuikSCAT data available during the subsequent free-forecast period, coastal station observations, and North American Regional Reanalysis data. It was found that QuikSCAT winds are a potentially valuable resource for improving the simulation of ocean near-surface winds in the Chukchi/Beaufort Seas region. Specifically, the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds improved, (1) offshore surface winds as compared to unassimilated QuikSCAT winds, (2) sea-level pressure, planetary boundary-layer height, as well as surface heat fluxes, and (3) low-level wind fields and geopotential height. Verification against QuikSCAT data also demonstrated the temporal consistency and good quality of QuikSCAT observations. 相似文献
6.
This paper focuses on the data assimilation methods for sea surface winds, based on the level-2B HY-2A satellite microwave scatterometer wind products. We propose a new feature thinning method, which is herein used to screen scatterometer winds while maintaining the key structure of the wind field in the process of data thinning for highresolution satellite observations. We also accomplish feeding the ambiguous wind solutions directly into the data assimilation system, thus making better use of the retrieved information while simplifying the assimilation process of the scatterometer products. A numerical simulation experiment involving Typhoon Danas shows that our method gives better results than the traditional approach. This method may be a valuable alternative for operational satellite data assimilation. 相似文献
7.
This paper focuses on the data assimilation methods for sea surface winds, based on the level-2B HY-2A satellite microwave scatterometer wind products. We propose a new feature thinning method, which is herein used to screen scatterometer winds while maintaining the key structure of the wind field in the process of data thinning for highresolution satellite observations. We also accomplish feeding the ambiguous wind solutions directly into the data assimilation system, thus making better use of the retrieved information while simplifying the assimilation process of the scatterometer products. A numerical simulation experiment involving Typhoon Danas shows that our method gives better results than the traditional approach. This method may be a valuable alternative for operational satellite data assimilation. 相似文献
8.
The present study is conducted to verify the short-range forecasts from mesoscale model version5 (MM5)/weather research and forecasting (WRF) model over the Indian region and to examine the impact of assimilation of quick scatterometer (QSCAT) near surface winds, spectral sensor microwave imager (SSM/I) wind speed and total precipitable water (TPW) on the forecasts by these models using their three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation scheme for a 1-month period during July 2006. The control (without satellite data assimilation) as well as 3D-Var sensitivity experiments (with assimilating satellite data) using MM5/WRF were made for 48 h starting daily at 0000 UTC July 2006. The control run is analyzed for the intercomparison of MM5/WRF short-range forecasts and is also used as a baseline for assessing the MM5/WRF 3D-Var satellite data sensitivity experiments. As compared to the observation, the MM5 (WRF) control simulations strengthened (weakened) the cross equatorial flow over southern Arabian sea near peninsular India. The forecasts from MM5 and WRF showed a warm and moist bias at lower and upper levels with a cold bias at the middle level, which shows that the convective schemes of these models may be too active during the simulation. The forecast errors in predicted wind, temperature and humidity at different levels are lesser in WRF as compared to MM5, except the temperature prediction at lower level. The rainfall pattern and prediction skill from day 1 and day 2 forecasts by WRF is superior to MM5. The spatial distribution of forecast impact for wind, temperature, and humidity from 1-month assimilation experiments during July 2006 demonstrated that on average, for 24 and 48-h forecasts, the satellite data improved the MM5/WRF initial condition, so that model errors in predicted meteorological fields got reduced. Among the experiments, MM5/WRF wind speed prediction is most benefited from QSCAT surface wind and SSM/I TPW assimilation while temperature and humidity prediction is mostly improved due to latter. The largest improvement in MM5/WRF rainfall prediction is due to the assimilation of SSM/I TPW. The assimilation of SSM/I wind speed alone in MM5/WRF degraded the humidity and rainfall prediction. In summary the assimilation of satellite data showed similar impact on MM5/WRF prediction; largest improvement due to SSM/I TPW and degradation due to SSM/I wind speed. 相似文献
9.
利用美国西海岸7个近岸浮标2012年全年和中国近岸8个气象浮标2012年1—6月的风场观测数据,检验了卫星散射计ASCAT近岸风场产品中的风速和风向在近岸海域的精度。检验结果表明:在美国西海岸近岸海域,ASCAT近岸风场产品中的风速与浮标的风速一致性高,但ASCAT近岸风场产品中风向的精度受离岸距离、风速和风向等因素的影响,在离岸近的海域ASCAT近岸风场产品与浮标观测风场的一致性较差。统计发现,将低风速 (不超过3 m·s-1) 剔除可明显提高ASCAT近岸风场产品在近岸海域的精度。另外,ASCAT近岸风场产品的风向精度在不同风向上存在差异,表现为从陆地吹向海洋风向精度较小,而从海洋吹向陆地风向精度较高。在中国近岸海域,受地形影响,渤海海域ASCAT近岸风场产品与气象浮标观测的风向差异大,在其他近岸海域的ASCAT近岸风场产品和气象浮标的观测风场的对比结果与美国西海岸风场的对比结果特征相似。 相似文献
10.
Diagnostics of subseasonal prediction biases of the Asian summer monsoon by the NCEP climate forecast system 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Xiangwen Liu Song Yang Arun Kumar Scott Weaver Xingwen Jiang 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1453-1474
Biases of subseasonal prediction of the Asian summer monsoon are diagnosed using daily data from the hindcasts of 45-day integrations by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2. The retrospective forecasts often show apparent systematic biases, which are mostly represented by the underestimation of the whole Asian monsoon. Biases depend not only on lead time, but also on the stage of monsoon evolution. An abrupt turning point of bias development appears around late June and early July, when ensemble spread and bias growth of winds and precipitation show a significant change over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) region. The abrupt turning of bias development of winds, precipitation, and surface temperature is also captured by the first two modes of multivariate empirical orthogonal function analysis. Several features appear associated with the abrupt change in bias development: the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) begins its first northward jump and the surface temperature over the Tibetan Plateau commences a transition from warm bias to cold bias, and a reversal of surface temperature biases occurs in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and the SASM region. The shift of WPSH position and the transition of surface thermal bias show close relationships with the formation of bias centers in winds and precipitation. The rapid growth in bias due to the strong internal atmospheric variability during short leads seems to mainly account for the weak WPSH and SASM in the model. However, at certain stages, particularly for longer-lead predictions, the biases of slowly varying components may also play an important role in bias development of winds and precipitation. 相似文献
11.
基于大气辐射传输理论分别建立Ku波段和C波段的降雨模型,模拟热带气旋降雨区洋面的雷达回波并反演了洋面10 m风场,用于研究降雨对测风的影响以及风云三号双频风场雷达 (WFR) 的测风能力。分析表明:回波的衰减或增强取决于降雨衰减项和后向散射项的相对大小;热带气旋的降雨使反演风速偏小,风向精度降低,Ku波段相对于C波段更易受影响,在高风速 (超过30 m·s-1) 条件下,可达5~20 m·s-1的负风速偏差。反演结果表明:双频反演的新方法能够结合Ku波段与C波段的优势,双频最大似然估计 (MLE) 方法在分辨率上优于C波段单频反演,相对Ku单频反演能降低降雨对测风的衰减作用,结合双频MLE方法和C波段单频反演优势的分区反演方法可以显著减小降雨偏差,提高风速反演精度,在有风云三号湿度计同步观测的条件下,是提高热带气旋降雨区测风精度的有效手段。 相似文献
12.
Summary The increasing use of weather radar quantitative precipitation estimates, particularly in automatic applications such as operational
hydrometeorological modelling or assimilation in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, has promoted the development of
quality control procedures on radar data.
Anomalous propagation (AP) of the radar beam due to deviation from the standard refractivity vertical profile, is one of the
factors that may affect seriously the quality of radar observations because of the increase in quantity and intensity of non-precipitating
clutter echoes and consequent contamination of the estimated rainfall field. Another undesired effect of AP is the change
in the expected radar echo height, which may be relevant when correcting for beam blockage in radar rainfall estimation in
complex terrain. The aim of this paper is to study the use of NWP mesoscale forecasts to predict and monitor AP events.
A nested 15-km grid resolution version of the MASS model has been used to retrieve refractivity profiles in the coastal area
of Barcelona, near a weather radar and a radiosonde station. Using the refractivity profiles two different magnitudes were
computed: the vertical refractivity profile of the lowest 1000 m layer and a ducting index which describes the existence and
intensity of the most super-refractive layer contained in the lowest 3-km layer. A comparison between model forecasts and
radiosonde diagnostics during a six-month period showed that the model tended to underestimate the degree of super-refraction,
with a bias of 4 km−1 and RMSE of 11 km−1 in the 1-km vertical refractivity gradient. Further analysis of the data showed that a combination of previous observations
and forecasts allowed to produce modified forecasts improving the original direct model output, decreasing substantially the
bias, reducing the RMSE by 20% and improving the skill by 40%, beating also radiosonde observations persistence. 相似文献
13.
14.
一次暴风雪过程中的中尺度重力波特征及其影响 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
应用地面自动气象站观测资料、数字化多普勒天气雷达探测资料和WRFV2.2.1中尺度数值模拟资料,分析了中尺度重力波与基本气流的相互作用,以及重力波活动对暴雪和大风天气的重要影响。结果表明,在波导中传播的中尺度重力波能够与基本气流进行动量交换,使得对流层中上层4.5—8 km气层内的水平平均风速趋于均匀,形成斜穿整个对流层的饱和湿空气急流,即"湿急流"。在高空急流出口区激发的垂直向下传播的重力波,使基本气流的水平风速在垂直方向上出现了加速和减速的交替变化,水平风加速的气层,反射率增大;水平风减速的气层,反射率减小。随着波动下传及其随基本气流的移动,反射率回波强度沿高空风的方向(由西南向东北)出现周期性变化,回波带呈西北—东南走向,强回波中心之间为宽约40 km的弱回波区。重力波下传期间,当地面气压迅速下降时,东北风快速增长,风向有明显的改变,反射率强度开始减弱;气压脊线过后,反射率降低到最低点。地面大风中心出现在反射率回波强度周期性变化的地带,沿西南—东北方向间隔着分布。雷达探测表明,对流层低层风速在风向切变层上下边界对称相等,因此推测在重力波与切变层汇合的高度层存在垂直环流,由风切变层上下边界附近的西南气流和东北气流与受重力波影响形成的垂直方向上的上升和下沉气流共同组成。切变层上方的动量通过垂直环流的下沉支到达地面,强风中心对应着下沉气流,出现在降水回波开始减弱之际。 相似文献
15.
Ingo Richter Swadhin K. Behera Takeshi Doi Bunmei Taguchi Yukio Masumoto Shang-Ping Xie 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(11):3091-3104
The factors controlling equatorial Atlantic winds in boreal spring are examined using both observations and general circulation model (GCM) simulations from the coupled model intercomparison phase 5. The results show that the prevailing surface easterlies flow against the attendant pressure gradient and must therefore be maintained by other terms in the momentum budget. An important contribution comes from meridional advection of zonal momentum but the dominant contribution is the vertical transport of zonal momentum from the free troposphere to the surface. This implies that surface winds are strongly influenced by conditions in the free troposphere, chiefly pressure gradients and, to a lesser extent, meridional advection. Both factors are linked to the patterns of deep convection. Applying these findings to GCM errors indicates, that, consistent with the results of previous studies, the persistent westerly surface wind bias found in most GCMs is due mostly to precipitation errors, in particular excessive precipitation south of the equator over the ocean and deficient precipitation over equatorial South America. Free tropospheric influences also dominate the interannual variability of surface winds in boreal spring. GCM experiments with prescribed climatological sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) indicate that the free tropospheric influences are mostly associated with internal atmospheric variability. Since the surface wind anomalies in boreal spring are crucial to the development of warm SST events (Atlantic Niños), the results imply that interannual variability in the region may rely far less on coupled air–sea feedbacks than is the case in the tropical Pacific. 相似文献
16.
本文分析了2015年3月17—18日上海地区连续两天发生最高气温预报失误的天气背景,并使用当日实况观测和业务预报使用的数值模式资料,剖析预报失败的原因,分析表明:对天空状况的误判是导致17日预报失败的主要原因,且东南风预报偏强更进一步增大了预报误差;冷空气影响时间的判断失误是导致18日预报失败的主要原因。从模式预报的实时检验、预报的跳跃性和不确定性角度分析了预报中存在的问题:预报员应重视本地和上游实况,从传统对单一确定性模式预报的依赖向多模式多起报时次及能提供概率预报和不确定性信息的业务集合预报的分析思路转型。此外,还需加强对集合预报的系统性检验、评估及数值预报释用产品的开发,增加包含不确定性信息的公众天气预报发布形式。 相似文献
17.
QuikSCAT散射计矢量风统计特征及南海大风遥感分析 总被引：18，自引：5，他引：18
主要分析了QuikSCAT散射计矢量风资料的统计特征,并利用该资料分析了南海大风频数的月变化、空间分布特征以及南海各月风场的空间分布特征.结果显示QuikSCAT矢量风在南海具有可信性;利用散射计风场资料分析发现在南海主要盛行两种风,即冬季东北风和夏季西南风,东北风最大中心在巴士海峡、台湾海峡;南海中南部存在东北季风的次大中心和西南季风的极大中心. 相似文献
18.
THE ANALYSIS ON THE STATISTICAL CHARACTER OF QUIKSCAT SCATTEROMETER WINDS AND STRONG WIND FREQUENCY USING REMOTE SENSOR DATA FROM QUIKSCAT 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1
1 INTRODUCTION Most of the conventional sea surface wind data are measurements from ships, buoys and islands, with coverage and spatial resolution far below the requirements of research and application. At present, due to limited understanding of physical processes and efficient exploitation of data, numerical prediction models have not been used as they should be, although routine procedures are able to give sea surface wind fields at the intervals of 6 hours. With the development of sp… 相似文献
19.
Specifying physically consistent and accurate initial conditions is one of the major challenges of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this study, ground-based global positioning system (GPS) integrated water vapor (IWV) measurements available from the International Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) Service (IGS) station in Bangalore, India, are used to assess the impact of GPS data on NWP model forecasts over southern India. Two experiments are performed with and without assimilation of GPS-retrieved IWV observations during the Indian winter monsoon period (November–December, 2012) using a four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation method. Assimilation of GPS data improved the model IWV analysis as well as the subsequent forecasts. There is a positive impact of ～10 % over Bangalore and nearby regions. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model-predicted 24-h surface temperature forecasts have also improved when compared with observations. Small but significant improvements were found in the rainfall forecasts compared to control experiments. 相似文献
20.
以北京市观象台2010年8月、2011年8月每日3次 (08:00, 14:00, 20:00,北京时,下同) L波段探空秒间隔数据为实况,对BJ-RUC系统 (rapid updated cycle system for the Beijing area) 分析和预报边界层性能进行了初步评估。结果表明:BJ-RUC系统对北京地区夏季白天边界层的细致特征具有较好的预报能力,但也存在明显的系统性误差。08:00边界层偏冷; 14:00和20:00 1 km以下的边界层则显著偏暖, 边界层内明显偏湿。整体上模式对边界层内温度、湿度的预报误差均高于自由大气。该系统对北京地区边界层内早晨 (08:00) 从夜间山风向白天谷风环流过渡、午后 (14:00) 到日落后 (20:00)1500 m以下盛行西南偏南气流的日变化特征具有较强的预报能力。系统预报的14:00边界层顶高度与评估时段内实际对流边界层高度的变化趋势一致。但预报的对流边界层顶偏高,这与BJ-RUC系统采用YSU边界层参数化方案的垂直混合更强有关。 相似文献