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1.
This article reviews the theoretical foundations for the concept of peak minerals; drawing on similarities and differences
with peak oil as modelled using Hubbert style curves. Whilst several studies have applied peak modelling to selected minerals,
discussion of the appropriateness of using Hubbert style curves in the minerals context remains largely unexplored. Our discussion
focuses on a comparison between oil and minerals, on the key variables: rates of discovery, estimates of ultimately recoverable
resources and demand and production trends. With respect to minerals, there are several obstacles which complicate the application
of Hubbert style curves to the prediction of future mineral production, including the lack of accurate discovery data, the
effect of uncertain reserve estimates, and varying ore quality and quantity. Another notable difference is that while oil
is often combusted during use, minerals are used to make metals which are inherently recyclable. Notwithstanding, by using
a range of estimates of resources and/or reserves, a period of time can be identified which indicates when a peak in minerals
production may occur. This information may then be used to plan for a transition from using a potentially constrained resource,
to using substitutes if available, or to reducing demand for that mineral in society. 相似文献
2.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) commissioned a special report on emissions scenarios in 2000 so as to forecast global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for a variety of assumptions. These scenarios have been subjected to a multitude of criticisms, alleging overoptimistic predictions for fossil fuel production rates. Intrigued by this controversy, this paper employs the Hubbert linearization technique to solve for ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of fossil fuels for six significant IPCC scenarios. The predictions are substantially higher than geological URR estimates found in recent literature, ranging from 19 to over 200% higher for oil, 16 to over 500% for coal, and 171 to over 500% for natural gas, depending on the scenario. Subsequently, the atmospheric CO2 concentrations resulting from full consumption of URR related to IPCC data, as well as literature-based URR, are determined with a simple model. The former concentrations range from 640 to over 1,300 ppm. In comparison, the peak-based URR in the literature yield 463–577 ppm. All of these figures are higher than the 450 ppm ‘threshold’ which some see as critical. Therefore, despite peaking fossil fuels, concern over climate change is still warranted. At the same time, the fossil fuel production inputs to the IPCC’s CO2 emissions models appear predominantly overoptimistic, which calls into question the accuracy of the climate change assessment outputs. Moving forward, the IPCC is encouraged to re-assess its fossil fuel forecasts, incorporating more reasonable scenarios for peak production of fossil fuels. 相似文献
3.
Deborah Feder 《The Professional geographer》2004,56(2):185-200
The production and use of fossil fuels and nonrenewable electricity creates many forms of environmental degradation. To reduce degradation, this research suggests an energy strategy based on energy end‐use analysis and regional geography. Energy end‐use analysis and regional geography are used to match renewable energy resources with site‐specific, end‐use needs. Fieldwork conducted within Centre County, Pennsylvania, demonstrates that small‐scale solar, wind, and micro‐hydropower resources could displace a proportion of household electricity use. Such an approach meets energy end‐use needs, while conserving fossil fuels and reducing environmental degradation. 相似文献
4.
Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change.
Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions
on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present
set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future
production expectations are leaning toward spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage
the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased
toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels. 相似文献
5.
6.
Alfred J. Cavallo 《Natural Resources Research》2004,13(4):211-221
Following Hubberts successful prediction of the timing of US peak oil production, Hubberts model has been used extensively to predict peak oil production elsewhere. However, forecasts of world and regional peak oil and natural gas production using Hubberts methodology usually have failed, leading to the implicit belief that such predictions always will fail and that we need not worry about finite resources. A careful examination of Hubberts approach indicates that the most important reasons for his success in the US were stable markets, the high growth rate of demand, ready availability of low cost imports, and a reasonable estimate of easily extractable reserves. This analysis also shows that his model cannot predict ultimate oil reserves and that it should be considered an econometric model. Building on Hubberts vital insight, that cheap fossil fuel reserves are knowable and finite, one can state that for world peak oil production, political constraints should be much more important than resource constraints. 相似文献
7.
辽中地区矿业城市水资源供需平衡动态分析 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
辽中地区矿业城市是我国重要的能源生产和重工业基地,研究其水资源供需变化有利于实现水资源可持续化管理,促进经济、生态协调发展。分析了水资源供需平衡框架,可利用水资源和需水量的计算方法,以及水资源供需平衡的影响因子。结果表明:1997-2005年,辽中地区矿业城市水资源供需区域差异明显,鞍山市水资源供需失衡明显,但缺水量逐渐降低,2005年仅缺水0.32×108m3,水资源开发利用率平均达到65.56%,用水属于高度紧张;抚顺市水资源供需基本持平,近几年余水量逐渐增大,2005年余水5.25×108m3,水资源开发利用率平均达到35.11%,用水属于中高度紧张;本溪市水资源供需平衡,可利用水资源大于需水量,2005年余水8.65×108m3,水资源开发利用率平均达到27.96%,用水属于中高度紧张。鞍山的需水结构以农业需水和生态环境需水为主,两者达到总需水量的76%;抚顺以生态环境需水为主,达到60%,农业需水次之,达到23%;本溪生态环境需水达到67%,工业需水次之,为15%。自然条件的差异是水资源供需变化差异的基础,人类社会经济活动和政策法规是水资源供需变化的主要影响因子。 相似文献
8.
Growth Rates of Global Energy Systems and Future Outlooks 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The world is interconnected and powered by a number of global energy systems using fossil, nuclear, or renewable energy. This
study reviews historical time series of energy production and growth for various energy sources. It compiles a theoretical
and empirical foundation for understanding the behaviour underlying global energy systems’ growth. The most extreme growth
rates are found in fossil fuels. The presence of scaling behaviour, i.e. proportionality between growth rate and size, is
established. The findings are used to investigate the consistency of several long-range scenarios expecting rapid growth for
future energy systems. The validity of such projections is questioned, based on past experience. Finally, it is found that
even if new energy systems undergo a rapid ‘oil boom’-development—i.e. they mimic the most extreme historical events—their
contribution to global energy supply by 2050 will be marginal. 相似文献
9.
James J. MacKenzie 《Natural Resources Research》1998,7(2):97-100
Fossil fuels are finite and nonrenewable. In due course, they will become scarce and costly. Their role in powering modern economies is so vital as to warrant a review of ultimately recoverable reserves and of plausible future consumption patterns. Over the past 50 years, many oil companies, geologists, governments, and private corporations have performed scores of studies of Estimated Ultimately Recoverable (EUR) global oil. Taken together, the great majority of these studies reflect a consensus that EUR oil reserves lie within the range of 1800 to 2200 billion barrels. Given this range, a simple model is used to calculate that world oil production is likely to peak sometime between 2007 and 2019. The global transportation sector, almost totally dependent on oil, could be especially hard hit unless vehicles fueled by sources other than petroleum are developed and rapidly deployed. 相似文献
10.
In a world of climate change and socio-economic development, oil is the strategic resource that is closely intertwined and interdependent. Tracing the evolution of petroleum resources flow is fundamental to understanding petroleum supply and demand, and can also serve as the basis for assessing CO2 emissions from petroleum products. This paper aims to provide a petroleum products flow accounting framework that divides petroleum flow into four phases, three flows, three libraries, and two processes, and summarizes the approach to measure and analyze petroleum resources flows. It takes China as an example for empirical research, and finds that: ① China’s petroleum production, consumption and import have significantly increased over the past two decades, and the combination of increasing demand and limited supply have created an urgent need for China to diversify its petroleum sources globally to ensure its oil security. ② Final consumption accounts for the use of most petroleum products and special attention should be paid to the losses in the petroleum refining process. ③ With the exception of crude oil, petroleum product flows among various sectors has changed greatly. Particularly, the flow of petroleum products into transport and residential consumption has trended upward significantly, whereas the flow to industry is trending downward. ④ CO2 emission data shows that CO2 emission amounts increased rapidly from 456Mt in 1993 to 1517Mt in 2013. Previously, the top three CO2 emitters were the industrial sector, the transport sector including the transport, storage and post segments, and the thermal power sector. Currently, the largest emitters are the transport sector, the industrial sector and the residential consumption sector. Finally, poorly demarcated system boundaries and incomplete databases and models constrain research on industry flows of petroleum resources for non-energy use. 相似文献
11.
流域水资源开发阈值模型及其在黄河流域的应用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
流域水资源开发阈值是流域水资源合理利用的基础和流域生态系统健康的保证。随着水资源短缺引起的 问题日益突出, 人们对水资源开发阈值的认识也在不断加深, 从最初的“水资源总量”、“可利用量”和“可供水量” 等, 到考虑生态需水和水质保护的水资源可利用量。本文在这些理念的基础上, 提出一种新的流域水资源开发阈值 及其计算模型, 即考虑水资源量、不可利用的洪水量、被污染水量、生态需水量及重复计算水量, 综合计算流域水资 源开发阈值。黄河流域作为我国水资源严重短缺地区, 水资源开发面临严峻挑战。以黄河流域为例, 运用该阈值模 型对黄河流域水资源开发阈值进行初步计算, 得到开发阈值多年平均约为238 亿m3, 占黄河天然径流量的40%左 右, 符合国际公认的流域水资源开发标准。 相似文献
12.
全球变化对中国粮食安全的影响分析 总被引：29，自引：6，他引：29
以斯德哥尔摩环境研究所(SEI)建立的粮食需求和供应模型为基础,同时采用Ds和Shaw建立的全球变化各因子对粮食需求和供给影响的模型对其变量进行修正,结合唐国平、李秀彬的结果,模拟计算了全球变化条件下,我国未来粮食需求量和产量。在分析中发现:受全球变化的影响,在保持人民消费水平持续增长的条件下我国未来粮食生产有可能不能满足需求增长的要求,存在7～8%的粮食缺口。但是,由于全球变化的各个因素都存在很大的不确定性,而且技术进步对增加粮食产量有很大促进作用。计算结果揭示,只要采取正确的措施来尽量减少全球变化带来的不利影响,危机是可以避免的 相似文献
13.
14.
基于社会经济统计数据,采用生产性生态足迹模型,评估并对比了我国四大沙地地区2000年和2015年的生产性生态足迹和生态赤字/盈余状态,以揭示区域的可持续性。结果表明：2000-2015年,四大沙地地区人均生态足迹总体呈现增加趋势,毛乌素沙地地区人均生态足迹年均增长率最高,达20.85%,增长量为79.21 hm2·人-1;人均生态足迹主要以化石能源足迹和草地足迹为主;2000-2015年四大沙地地区生态赤字程度在不断增强,毛乌素沙地地区人均生态赤字变化量最大,达79.51 hm2·人-1,造成赤字程度加大的主要原因是地区化石能源的大量生产。随着人们生活水平的提高,人们对资源的需求量也在不断增加,当前四大沙地地区社会经济的发展在一定程度上仍以自然资源大量生产和消耗为代价,经济发展和环境保护之间的平衡仍存在挑战,需要根据各地区的具体情况制定有针对性的管理措施,以维持区域的可持续发展。 相似文献
15.
资源税改革将在“十二五”期间完成,但目前相关研究成果仍较少。我们构建可计算一般均衡模型（ComputableGeneralEquilibrium,CGE）,建立生产、消费、收入支出和资源等函数方程,采用从价征税方式,参考国内预期税率区间和发达国家税率,模拟和分析税率设置的影响。研究表明：税率设置对社会经济和资源系统影响程度差异不同,在经济相对稳定时,可选择如5％一7％的税率区间;在经济水平较高时,可选择较高税率区间;而在经济波动较大时,可选择较低税率区间。 相似文献
16.
Pimentel D 《社会与自然资源》1991,4(4):347-363
Destruction of forests and the considerable burning of fossil fuels is directly causing the level of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases including methane, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide in the atmosphere to rise. Population growth in the US and the world indirectly contributes to this global warming. This has led the majority of scientists interested in weather and climate to predict that the planet's temperature will increase from 1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius by 2050. These forecasted climactic changes will most likely strongly affect crop production. Specifically these scientists expect the potential changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, and pests to decrease food production in North America. The degree of changes hinges on each crop and its environmental needs. If farmers begin using improved agricultural technology, the fall in crop yields can be somewhat counterbalanced. Even without global warming, however, agriculture in North America must embrace sensible ecological resource management practices such as conserving soil, water, energy, and biological resources. These sustainable agricultural practices would serve agriculture, farmers, the environment, and society. Agriculturalists, farmers, and society are already interested in sustainable agriculture. Still scientists must conduct more research on the multiple effects of potential global climate change on many different crops under various environmental conditions and on new technologies that farmers might use in agricultural production. We must cut down our consumption of fossil fuel, reduce deforestation, erase poverty, and protect our soil, water, and biological resources. The most important action we need to take, however, is to check population growth. 相似文献
17.
The production and burning of fossil fuels is the primary contributor to CO2 emissions for the U.S. We assess the impact of producing coal, crude oil, and natural gas on the environment and economic well-being by analyzing state-level data from 2001 to 2015. Our findings show that coal production has led to more CO2 emissions and no significant benefit to economic well-being. Crude oil production has a non-significant impact on CO2 emissions but is related to a lower poverty rate, a higher median household income, and a higher employment rate. Natural gas withdrawals have a positive impact on median household income. We discuss these findings in the context of current U.S. energy policies and then provide directions for future research. 相似文献
18.
Saul B. Suslick 《Natural Resources Research》1998,7(3):211-224
This paper presents a methodology used to combine energy and mineral market variables between Less Developed Countries (LDCs)
and Developed Countries (OECD) over the past 24 years (1966–1990). LDCs include all countries, except OECD and central planned
economies (CIS) and other countries in Eastern Europe. This period permits a comprehensive view of the impact of the energy
crisis and the changes in economic growth patterns, correlated with changes in trends of production and consumption of energy
and metals in both country blocs. This complex relationship was evaluated by a factor model of consumption and production
variables using the aluminum, copper, lead, and zinc industries. The following variables are used in the factor model: export
dependence, geographic concentration of mining production, geographic concentration of refined demand, geographic concentration
of refined production, import dependence, refined demand growth, stability of demand, income elasticity of refined demand,
price stability, intensity of use, and intensity of energy. The model for all commodities shows that the factor scores projections
for LDCs and OECD blocs depicted a clearly divergent trend after the two oil shocks (1973–1979), when the intensity of energy
variable presents high loading in the factor. The results are in substantial agreement with findings that the demand for energy,
as well as for metals, is growing more rapidly in LDCs than OECD. 相似文献
19.
India’s coal demand is forecast to increase at a rapid pace in the future due to the country’s economic and population growth. Analyzing the scope for future production of India’s domestic coal resources, therefore, plays a vital role in the country’s development of sound energy policies. This paper presents a quantitative scenario analysis of India’s potential future coal production by using a negatively skewed curve-fitting model and a range of estimates of the country’s ultimately recoverable resources (URR) of coal. The results show that the resource base is sufficient for India’s coal production to keep increasing over the next few decades, to reach between 2400 and 3200 Mt/y at 2050, depending on the assumed value of URR. A further analysis shows that the high end of this range, which corresponds to our ‘GSI’ scenario, can be considered as the probable upper-bound to India’s domestic coal production. Comparison of production based on the ‘GSI’ scenario with India’s predicted demand shows that the domestic production of coal will be insufficient to meet the country’s rising coal demand, with the gap between demand and production increasing from its current value of about 268 Mt/y to reach 300 Mt/y in 2035, and 700 Mt/y by 2050. This increasing gap will be challenging for the energy security of India. 相似文献
20.
水资源经济政策CGE 模型及在北京市的应用 总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4
水资源经济政策的研究对于解决突出的水问题具有重要意义,本文采用2002 年北京市投入产出表和有关 的水资源公报等数据,通过单列水行业和废污水行业建立了基于一般均衡理论的水资源经济CGE(Computable General Equilibrium)模型和相应的42×53 多部门水资源投入产出表,利用GEMPACK 软件包,对北京市水资源经济 政策进行了模拟和分析。模拟显示,当水价增加10%时,行业产出和销售量变化呈现不同的特点和变动趋势;当水 量增加10%时,造成行业产出的变化和销售量的变动也值得深虑。该成果可为制定和实施水资源政策提供决策参 考及模拟平台。 相似文献