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1.
We have studied the seismicity features of M_S≥5.0 earthquakes two years before strong earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 occurred in the central-northern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block since 1920. The results have showed that there is an obvious gap or quiescence of M_S5.0～6.9 earthquakes near epicenters. We have also studied statistical seismicity parameters of M_S5.0～6.9 earthquakes in the same region since 1950. The results have showed that earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 occurred when earthquake frequency is relatively high and earthquake time, space accumulation degrees are rising. And the prediction effect R value scores are between 0.4～0.7. We have concluded that, before earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 in the central-northern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block, M_S5.0～6.0 earthquake activity in the whole area increased and accumulated in time and space, but earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 occurred where M_S5.0～6.0 earthquake activity was relatively quiet. 相似文献
2.
The characteristics of seismic activity in different time-spatial domain before the Mw9.0 earthquake were studied. The results are as follows ： ① The activity of the deep earthquakes in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been evidently strengthened since 1994, showing an increased frequency, magnitude and depth, especially in regards to the heterogeneous distribution of the earthquake depth （namely between 500km and 689km）. Meanwhile the shallow earthquakes of M ≥ 7.0 in the Sumatra island and its vicinity had been obviously strengthened too, and formed a strengthening area with a length of about 1000 km and width 300 km. ②The time distribution of global strong earthquakes with M≥ 7.0 shows that the character of anomalous seismic quiescence-activity one year before the Mw9.0 earthquake and during its active period, the strong earthquakes formed a seismic belt striking in NWW direction. At the same time, there is a seismic gap formed by earthquakes of M ≥ 5.0 in the epicenter and its neighboring region. ③ Two deep earthquakes of M ≥ 7.0 occurred in the west and in the east of the north boundary zone of the Australian plate half year ago. It is notable that one of them occurred in the Sumatra island where no deep earthquake with M ③ 6.0 has occurred in the past thirty years. ④The space distribution of moderate shocks occurring three days ago exhibited a NWW-strike seismic belt along the north boundary zone of the Australian plate. ⑤The activity of volcanoes distributed in the north boundary zone of the Australian plate had been strengthened in the past 4 years, especially several months before the occurrence of the Mw9.0 earthquake. 相似文献
3.
26 earthquakes with MS ≥5. 0 have been recorded in the northeast margin of the Qinghai- Xizang (Tibet) block since 1980,22 of which were relatively independent of other moderate- strong earthquakes. Research on the increase of small earthquake activity before the 22 moderate-strong earthquakes has indicated that small earthquake activity was enhanced before 17 of the moderate-strong earthquakes. Though the increased seismicity is a common phenomenon in the northeast margin of the Qinghai-Xizang ( Tibet ) block,we have difficulty in predicting the moderate-strong earthquakes by this phenomenon. In order to predict the moderate-strong earthquakes through the increased seismicity of small earthquakes,this paper attempts to propose a new method, which calculates small earthquake frequency through the change of distribution pattern of small earthquakes, based on the characteristics of small earthquake activity in the northeastern Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block,and then make primary applications. The result shows that we are able to obtain obvious anomalies in the frequency of small earthquakes before moderate strong earthquakes through the new method,with little spatial range effect on the amplitude of this small earthquake frequency anomaly. We can obtain mid to short-term anomaly indices for moderate-strong earthquakes in the northeast margin of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) block. 相似文献
4.
Characteristics of seismic activity before the M5.1 earthquake in Wen'an,Hebei Province on July 4,2006 are analyzed by relocation of small earthquakes in the China's capital area,and some results are obtained as follows:① The seismic activity of M L ≥3.0 in the middle part of the Hebei plain seismic belt displayed a feature of strengthening (lasting 43 months) quiescence (17 months) five years before the Wen'an earthquake.Simultaneously,the strain release curve showed a variation process of accelerating-flatting.② A seismogenic gap in a three-dimensional space,located at the depth of 15km ～ 20km,with 70km long in latitude direction and 90km long in longitude orientation,was formed by M≥2.0 earthquakes four years prior to the Wen'an earthquake.The initial rupture point of the Wen'an earthquake is situated at the bottom of the gap.③ The focal depths of earthquakes with M L ≥2.0 in the middle part of the Hebei plain seismic belt gradually increased from 10km to 30km during the period from April,2003 to October,2004.Meanwhile,the seismic activity obviously strengthened in the middle and lower crust (from 20km to 30km in depth). 相似文献
5.
《中国地震研究》1997,(2)
Considering two seismic parameters,energy and the frequency of an earthquake as a whole from the definition of information gain in entropy,we study the information gain of M≥6.0 earthquakes from the world earthquake catalogue during 1900-1992.The results show that the information gain decreases before strong earthquakes.Our study of the recent seismic tendency of large earthquakes shows that the probability of earthquakes with M≥8.5 is low for the near future around the world.The information gain technique provides a new approach to tracing and predicting earthquakes from the data of moderate and small earthquakes. 相似文献
6.
《地震科学（英文版）》2010,(4)
The tempo-spatial variation of seismic activity before great Chile MW8.8 earthquake on February 27,2010 is studied.Some results are as follows:1 Two types of seismic gaps appeared before the Chile MW8.8 shock.One is background gap of MW≥8.0 earthquakes with 360 km length since 1900,the other is seismogenic gap formed by M≥5.5 earthquakes with 780 km length five years before the Chile earthquake;2 There was only one MW7.1 earthquake in the middle and southern part of Chile from 1986 to 2010.The obvious quiescence of MW≥7.0 earthquake is the long-term background anomaly for the Chile earthquake;3 The quiescence of M≥6.5 earthquakes appeared in South American block and its vicinity during the period from 2007 to 2009,and the quietude state has been disappeared three months before the Chile MW8.8 earthquake;4 The deep and intermediate-depth earthquake activity has been noticeablely strengthened in the subduction zone of South American block since 1993;5 The great Chile earthquake shows that global seismicity is still in the active period of MW≥8.5 earthquakes since 2004.Based on the characteristics of the former two active periods,several great earthquakes with MW≥8.5 would take place in a few years.In addition,the circum-Pacific seismic belt would be the main region for MW≥8.0 earthquakes. 相似文献
7.
In 1997 - 2003, 27 earthquakes with M≥ 5.0 occurred in the Jiashi-Bachu area of Xinjiang. It was a rare strong earthquake swarm activity. The earthquake swarm has three time segments of activity with different magnitudes in the years 1997, 1998 and 2003. In different time segments, the seismic activity showed strengthenin-qguiet changes in various degrees before earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0. In order to delimitate effectively the precursory meaning of the clustering （strengthening） quiet change in sequence and to seek the time criterion for impending prediction, the nonlinear characteristics of seismic activity have been used to analyze the time structure characteristics of the earthquake swarm sequence, and further to forecast the development tendency of earthquake sequences in the future. Using the sequence catalogue recorded by the Kashi Station, and taking the earthquakes with Ms≥ 5.0 in the sequence as the starting point and the next earthquake with Ms = 5.0 as the end, statistical analysis has been performed on the time structure relations of the earthquake sequence in different stages. The main results are as follows： （1） Before the major earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm sequence, the time variation coefficient （δ-value） has abnormal demonstrations to different degrees. （2） Within 10 days after δ= 1, occurrence of earthquakes with M ≥ 5.0 in the swarm is very possible. （3） The time variation coefficient has three types of change. （4） The change process before earthquakes with M5.0 is similar to that before earthquakes with M6.0, with little difference in the threshold value. In the earthquake swarm sequence, it is difficult to delimitate accurately the attribute of the current sequences （foreshock or aftershock sequence） and to judge the magnitude of the follow-up earthquake by δ-value. We can only make the judgment that earthquakes with M5.0 are likely to occur in the sequence. （5） The critical clustering characteristics of the sequence are hierarchical. Onl 相似文献
8.
The reason for the failure to forecast the Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake is under study, based on the systematically collection of the seismicity anomalies and their analysis results from annual earthquake tendency forecasts between the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass M_S8.1 earthquake and the 2008 Wenchuan M_S8.0 earthquake. The results show that the earthquake tendency estimation of Chinese Mainland is for strong earthquakes to occur in the active stage, and that there is still potential for the occurrence of a M_S8.0 large earthquake in Chinese Mainland after the 2001 Western Kunlun Mountains Pass earthquake. However the phenomena that many large earthquakes occurred around Chinese Mainland, and the 6-year long quietude of M_S7.0 earthquake and an obvious quietude of M_S5.0 and M_S6.0 earthquakes during 2002～2007 led to the distinctly lower forecast estimation of earthquake tendency in Chinese Mainland after 2006. The middle part in the north-south seismic belt has been designated a seismic risk area of strong earthquake in recent years, but, the estimation of the risk degree in Southwestern China is insufficient after the Ning’er M_S6.4 earthquake in Yunnan in 2007. There are no records of earthquakes with M_S≥7.0 in the Longmenshan fault, which is one of reasons that this fault was not considered a seismic risk area of strong earthquakes in recent years. 相似文献
9.
Since 2001, there have occurred in succession the 2001 Kunlun Mountains M S8. 1earthquake,the 2008 Wenchuan M S8. 0 earthquake,the 2010 Yushu M S7. 1 earthquake and the 2012 Lushan M S7. 0 earthquake in the periphery of the Bayan Har block. By comparison of the characteristics of seismic strain release variations before and after the Kunlun Mountains M S8. 1 earthquake in the same time length in the geodynamical related regions,we found that the seismic strain release was obviously enhanced after the earthquake in the Longmenshan area,Batang area,and the NS-trending valleys at the west of the Hot Spring Basin. The Wenchuan earthquake occurred in the first area,and the Yushu earthquake is related to the second area. After the earthquake rupture occurred on the East Kunlun fault zone on the northern boundary of the Bayan Har Block,crustal materials on the south side of the fault zone migrated to the southeast,leading to a concentration of tectonic deformation in the Longmenshan thrust belt, e ventually rupturing on the Longmenshan thrust belt. This earthquake case illustrates that seismicity enhancement zones are possibly prone to long-term destructive earthquakes. After the M S7. 3 earthquake in Yutian,Xinjiang on February 12,2014,earthquake frequency and seismic strain release markedly increased in the junction area between the eastern Qilian Mountain tectonic belt and the Altun Tagh fault zone,where more attention should be paid to the long-term seismic risk. 相似文献
10.
The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of earthquakes in the Ordos block are studied by using historical earthquake data,instrument data of the regional seismic network around the Ordos block and the historical felt earthquake data,and the relationship between seismicity in the Ordos block and seismicity around the Ordos block is discussed. The result shows that the Ordos block is a typical moderate-strong earthquake active region where many M_S≥5.0 destructive earthquakes have occurred. The temporal and spatial distribution of earthquakes in the Ordos block is asymmetrical. The temporal distribution of earthquakes shows a periodic characteristic and the activity of earthquakes in the southeastern Ordos block is higher than in the northwest Ordos block. The M_S≥5.0 moderate size earthquakes in the Ordos block are controlled by the M_S≥6.0 earthquake around the Ordos block. 相似文献
11.
D. M. Pechersky A. A. Lyubushin Z. V. Sharonova 《Izvestiya Physics of the Solid Earth》2010,46(7):613-623
The data on geomagnetic reversals are compared with the changes in the organic world and with the lower-mantle plumes. The
times of the formation of plumes and the times of their appearance on the Earth’s surface relate to the intervals characterized
by the different frequencies of geomagnetic reversals, i.e., there is no interrelation between the formation of plumes and
the frequency of the changes in the geomagnetic field polarity. At the same time, a certain synchronism is observed between
the frequency of the geomagnetic reversals and the boundaries of the biostratigraphic ages, i.e., the changes in the organic
world in the long-period range. A hypothesis is proposed, which explains the change in the sign of the geomagnetic field by
the combined effect of the irregular rotation of the internal core relative to the mantle and the changes in the slope angle
of the axis of the Earth’s rotation, which, in turn, results in synchronous events on the Earth’s surface: the rates of changes
in the organic world. 相似文献
12.
The nutations of the planets Mars andEarth are investigated and compared. Alarge number of interior structureparameters are involved in the nutationcomputations. The comparison between the observations and the computationsprovides several constraints on these parmeters andtherefore allows a better understanding of the physics of the interior of theplanet. For the Earth, the high precision of the observations of the nutationshas led to a very good determination of interior properties of the planet. ForMars, observations of nutations are not yet available, and we review how theamplitude of the Martian nutations depends on the hypotheses consideredfor its interior. Although Mars is very similar to the Earth, its interior is not well known;for example, we don't knowif its core is liquid or solid. Only if the core is liquid,the Free Core Nutation (FCN) normal mode exists and can alter the nutationswhich are close to the resonance. From the observed geoids, it is known thatboth planets are not in hydrostatic equilibrium. The departure is larger forMars than for the Earth, and consequently, the implication of considering a convective mantle instead of a mantle in hydrostatic equilibrium described byClairaut's equation for the initial equilibrium state of the planet is largeron the Martian nutations than on the Earth nutations. The consequences of theuncertainty in the core dimensions are also examined and shown to be of a veryhigh influence for Mars if the core is liquid, due to the potential changes inthe FCN resonance. The influence of the presence of an inner core, which isknown to exist for the Earth, could be more important for Mars than for theEarth if the inner core is large. Due to the presence of Tharsis on Mars, thetriaxiality of this planet has, additionally, larger effects than on Earth. 相似文献
13.
综合APIA、HONOLULU、PAMATAI 3个地磁台三分量的11年周期变化的形态后,可定性地提出该变化源于内场。如内源为核幔边界的电涡流,则其中心点应位于3台之间。 相似文献
14.
The depth to the top of magnetic dykes can be estimated from total field aeromagnetic data using the relation between the depth to magnetic sources and the autocorrelation function of magnetic data. By using synthetic anomalies we show that in the ideal case, depth can be determined to an accuracy of 10% or better, when the anomaly sources are two-dimensional dykes. However, the estimated depths depend on the width of the dykes. The estimated depth is about 0.6 times the actual depth to the top of thin dykes, and around the true depth for thick dykes having width-to-depth ratio around 3. The depth is considerably overestimated for very thick dykes (e.g., contacts, which is a special case of the thick dyke). Thus, the autocorrelation method requires that the width-to-depth ratio of the dyke is estimated independently to correctly estimate the depths. Alternatively, it must be assumed that the width-to-depth ratio for the two-dimensional source body is between 1.5 and 4. 相似文献
15.
16.
As is known, the secular deceleration of the Earth's diurnal rotation is explained mainly by the tidal friction in the ocean. Below we consider this mechanism in some detail, taking into account also elastic deformations of the mantle under the action of ocean loading and the interaction between the tide-generating body, ocean tidal wave, liquid outer core, and solid inner core. It is shown that elastic displacements of the core-mantle boundary under the action of ocean loading are of about the same amplitude and phase as the elastic loading displacements of the Earth's outer surface. As a result, side by side with the mechanism of secular deceleration of diurnal rotation of the mantle, there are also (1) the opposite mechanism of secular acceleration of diurnal rotation of the outer liquid core and of the solid inner core and (2) the mechanism of excitation of differential rotation in the liquid core. Taking these effects into account, we compare theoretical and modern observed data on the eastward drift of the solid inner core. It is shown that the best agreement may be obtained if the turbulent viscosity of the liquid core is about 2 × 10
3
Poise 相似文献
17.
On data of bottom sampling, carried out by means of grab, trawl and underwater photography in August–September of 1993 in the area of the Pechora Sea, quantitative regularities of macrobenthos distribution are described for the ecological monitoring purposes. Maps of -biodiversity and biomass indices, bottom communities and trophic zones, singled out by dominant method, are presented. Assessment of structure changes of the investigated area bottom communities during the last 60–70 years is fulfilled. It is shown that the described communities on the whole are of natural undisturbed character and that the revealed changes are within the natural fluctuations in the abundance of benthic populations or may be interpreted in terms of methodical differences in the data analysis and generalization by different authors. 相似文献
18.
Summary The maintenance of the axisymmetric component of the flow in the atmosphere is investigated by means of a steady-state, quasi-geostrophic formulation of the meteorological equations. It is shown that the meridional variations in the time-averaged axisymmetric variables can be expressed as the sum of three contributions, one being due to the eddy heat transport, another to the eddy momentum transport, and a third to the convective-radiative equilibrium temperature which enters the problem through the specification of a Newtonian form of diabatic heating. The contributions by the large scale eddies are evaluated through the use of observed values for the eddy heat and momentum transports.The contributions from each of the three forcing mechanisms to the temperature and zonal wind fields are invstigated individually and found to be of about equal importance. The sum of the three contributions are also presented for the temperature, the zonal wind, the stream function associated with the mean meridional circulation and the corresponding vertical motion. Although the results fail to reproduce the main observed features of the lower stratosphere, they are found to be in good agreement with observations in the middle latitude troposphere. At any pressure level, for example, the computed mean zonal wind has a jet-like profile and the axis of the jet is found to slope to the south with height, as observed in the atmosphere.Based in part on a thesis submitted by the first author as partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Ph.D. degree at the University of Michigan. — Publication No. 194 from the Department of Meteorology and Oceanography, The University of Michigan. 相似文献
19.
地震激励下处于深水中的桥墩和周围水体的相互作用将对桥梁结构的动力响应产生较大影响。首先对地震作用下水-桥墩的相互作用理论做了概括,给出了动水压力对桥墩的作用效应及各自的适用范围;对主要的三种考虑流固耦合效应的分析方法做了对比,探讨了地震作用下影响水-结构相互作用的主要因素,并对今后的研究提出了建议。 相似文献
20.
在数据完整率达到95%的基础上,为进一步确保中国大陆构造环境监测网络GNSS基准站观测数据质量,选取2010—2020年全国基准站观测数据,采用TEQC软件进行质量检验,分类整理其中多路径效应计算结果呈典型特征的台站,结合观测环境状态,对多路径效应存在的区域性特征进行分析,发现除接收机天线周围发生遮挡外,硬件更换、台站周围地势差等因素,均对多路径效应产生不同程度的影响,可为建站选址和观测环境监测工作提供参考。 相似文献