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1.
In this study, the seismicity rate changes that can represent an earthquake precursor were investigated along the Sagaing Fault Zone (SFZ), Central Myanmar, using the Z value technique. After statistical improvement of the existing seismicity data (the instrumental earthquake records) by removal of the foreshocks and aftershocks and man-made seismicity changes and standardization of the reported magnitude scales, 3574 earthquake events with a M w ≥ 4.2 reported during 1977–2015 were found to directly represent the seismotectonic activities of the SFZ. To find the characteristic parameters specifically suitable for the SFZ, seven known events of M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes were recognized and used for retrospective tests. As a result, utilizing the conditions of 25 fixed earthquake events considered (N) and a 2-year time window (T w), a significantly high Z value was found to precede most of the M w ≥ 6.0 earthquakes. Therefore, to evaluate the prospective areas of upcoming earthquakes, these conditions (N = 25 and T w = 2) were applied with the most up-to-date seismicity data of 2010–2015. The results illustrate that the vicinity of Myitkyina and Naypyidaw (Z = 4.2–5.1) cities might be subject to strong or major earthquakes in the future. 相似文献
2.
Evaluating of the earthquake hazard parameters with Bayesian method for the different seismic source regions of the North Anatolian Fault Zone 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The earthquake hazard parameters and earthquake occurrence probabilities are computed for the different regions of the North Anatolia Fault Zone (NAFZ) using Bayesian method. A homogenous earthquake catalog for M S magnitude which is equal or larger than 4.0 is used for a time period between 1900 and 2015. Only two historical earthquakes (1766, M S = 7. 3 and 1897, M S = 7. 0) are included in Region 2 (Marmara Region) where a large earthquake is expected in the near future since no large earthquake has been observed for the instrumental period. In order to evaluate earthquake hazard parameters for next 5, 10, 20, 50, 100 years, M max (maximum regional magnitude), β value, λ (seismic activity or density) are computed for the different regions of NAFZ. The computed M max values are changed between 7.11 and 7.89. While the highest magnitude value is calculated in the Region 9 related to Tokat-Erzincan, the lowest value in the Region 10 including the eastern of Erzincan. The “quantiles” of “apparent” and “true” magnitudes of future time intervals of 5, 10, 20, 50, and 100 years are calculated for confidence limits of probability levels of 50, 70 and 90 % of the 10 different seismic source regions. The region between Tokat and Erzincan has earthquake hazard level according to the determined parameters. In this region the expected maximum earthquake size is 7.8 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years. While the regional M max value of Marmara Region is computed as 7.61, expected maximum earthquake size is 7.37 with 90 % occurrence probability in next 100 years. 相似文献
3.
An instrumental earthquake catalog covering the time span between 1903 and 2007 and for the area bounded by 32°N–38°N and 35°E–43°E has been compiled in this research. The catalog has a magnitude of completeness (M c ) with 3.5. Least squares and statistical probability Gumbel’s techniques with different approaches have been applied on the instrumental events in order to assess the average recurrence time periods for different earthquake magnitudes. The constants a and b of Gutenberg-Richter and the average recurrence times have been computed firstly for the study area and secondly for the central and northern parts of Dead Sea fault system. The different statistical computations using Knopoff and Kagan formalism are generally in agreement and suggest an average recurrence time of 203 years for an earthquake of magnitude 7 for the region. The occurrence of large well-documented historical earthquakes in Lebanon and western Syria, the existence of active fault segments, the absence of large earthquakes during the study period, the increasing number of the low-magnitude earthquakes, and the continued accumulation of the strain since 1900 indicate therefore the probability of an earthquake occurrence of a large magnitude. This should be permanently taken into consideration in seismic hazard assessment on the local and regional scales. 相似文献
4.
This paper presents a seismic hazard evaluation and develops an earthquake catalogue for the Constantine region over the period from 1357 to 2014. The study contributes to the improvement of seismic risk management by evaluating the seismic hazards in Northeast Algeria. A regional seismicity analysis was conducted based on reliable earthquake data obtained from various agencies (CRAAG, IGN, USGS and ISC). All magnitudes (M l, m b) and intensities (I 0, I MM, I MSK and I EMS) were converted to M s magnitudes using the appropriate relationships. Earthquake hazard maps were created for the Constantine region. These maps were estimated in terms of spectral acceleration (SA) at periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9, 1.0, 1.5 and 2.0 s. Five seismogenic zones are proposed. This new method differs from the conventional method because it incorporates earthquake magnitude uncertainty and mixed datasets containing large historical events and recent data. The method can be used to estimate the b value of the Gutenberg-Richter relationship, annual activity rate λ(M) of an event and maximum possible magnitude M max using incomplete and heterogeneous data files. In addition, an earthquake is considered a Poisson with an annual activity rate λ and with a doubly truncated exponential earthquake magnitude distribution. Map of seismic hazard and an earthquake catalogue, graphs and maps were created using geographic information systems (GIS), the Z-map code version 6 and Crisis software 2012. 相似文献
5.
Majid Nemati 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2017,76(14):495
Before starting seismic cycle of Ahar–Varzaghan 2012 event, a partial gap in the form of a pre-seismic calm sequence (seismicity rate, r = 0.46 event/year, b = 1.4) with duration of 303 days spatially has dominated over the entire seismogenic area. From April 17, 2012, to May 31, 2012, r significantly increased to 2.16, indicating strong foreshock sequence, and b value changed to 1.9, remarkably. In the last two months before the mainshock, foreshocks have partially migrated toward the earthquake fault (with a decrease in size, b = 2.0). Significantly, high rate of seismicity and low V P /V S (1.64) in the foreshocks sequence and also very high seismicity rate (17.3) and high V P /V S (1.76) in the aftershocks sequence make substantial differences between the seismic cycle and the background seismicity. Moreover, a significant E–W migration of the microseismicity was confirmed in the study area. 相似文献
6.
Application of time- and magnitude-predictable model for long-term earthquake prediction in Iran 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
H. Zafarani S. M. M. Ghafoori M. R. Adlparvar P. Rajaeian A. Hasankhani 《Natural Hazards》2015,78(1):155-178
The regional time- and magnitude-predictable model has been applied successfully in diverse regions of the world to describe the occurrence of main shocks. In the current study, the model has been calibrated against the historical and instrumental catalog of Iranian earthquakes. The Iranian plateau is divided into 15 seismogenic provinces; then, the interevent times for strong main shocks have been determined for each one. The empirical relations reported by Papazachos et al. (Tectonophysics 271:295–323, 1997a) for the Alpine–Himalayan belt (including Iran) were adopted except for the constant terms that were calculated separately for every seismotectonic area. By using the calibrated equations developed for the study area and taking into account the occurrence time and magnitude of the last main shocks in each seismogenic source, the time-dependent conditional probabilities of occurrence P(?t) of the next main shocks during next 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 years as well as the magnitude of the expected main shocks (M f) have been estimated. The immediate probability (within next 10 years) of a large main shock is estimated to be high and moderate (>35 %) in all regions except zones 9 (M f = 5.8) and 15 (M f = 6.1). However, it should be noted that the probabilities have been estimated for different M f values in 15 regions. Comparing the model predictions with the actual earthquake occurrence rates shows the good performance of the model for Iranian plateau. 相似文献
7.
Multifractal behaviour of interevent time sequences is investigated for the earthquake events in the NW Himalaya, which is one of the most seismically active zones of India and experienced moderate to large damaging earthquakes in the past. In the present study, the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to understand the multifractal behaviour of the earthquake data. For this purpose, a complete and homogeneous earthquake catalogue of the period 1965–2013 with a magnitude of completeness M w 4.3 is used. The analysis revealed the presence of multifractal behaviour and sharp changes near the occurrence of three earthquakes of magnitude (M w ) greater than 6.6 including the October 2005, Muzaffarabad–Kashmir earthquake. The multifractal spectrum and related parameters are explored to understand the time dynamics and clustering of the events. 相似文献
8.
In this paper, we present a seismic hazard scenario for the Garhwal region of the north-western Himalayan range, in terms of the horizontal Peak Ground Acceleration. The scenario earthquake of moment magnitude M w 8.5 has a 10% exceedance probability over the next 50 years. These estimates, the first for the region, were calculated through a stepwise process based on:
相似文献
- An estimation of the Maximum Credible Earthquake from the seismicity of the region and Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program considerations, and
- four seismotectonic parameters abstracted from near field weak-motion data recorded at five stations installed in Chamoli District of the Garhwal region in the aftermath of the 1999 Chamoli earthquake. The latter include
- The frequency dependent power law for the shear wave quality factor, Q S
- the site amplification at each station using horizontal-to-vertical-spectral ratio and generalized inversion technique
- source parameters of various events recorded by the array and application of the resulting relations between the scalar seismic moment M 0 (dyne-cm) and moment magnitude M w and the corner frequency, ? c (Hz) and moment magnitude M w to simulate spectral acceleration due to higher magnitude events corresponding to the estimated Maximum Credible Earthquake, and
- regional and site specific local spectral attenuation relations at different geometrically central frequencies in the low, moderate and high frequency bands.
9.
The b-value of the Gutenberg–Richter’s frequency–magnitude relation and the p-value of the modified Omori law, which describes the decay rate of aftershock activity, were investigated for more than 500 aftershocks in the Aksehir-Afyon graben (AAG) following the 15 December 2000 Sultandagi–Aksehir and the 3 February 2002 Çay–Eber and Çobanlar earthquakes. We used the Kandilli Observatory’s catalog, which contains records of aftershocks with magnitudes ≥2.5. For the Çobanlar earthquake, the estimated b-values for three aftershock sequences are in the range 0.34 ≤ b ≤ 2.85, with the exception of the one that occurred during the first hour (4.77), while the obtained p-values are in the range 0.44 ≤ p ≤ 1.77. The aftershocks of the Sultandagi earthquake have a high p-value, indicating fast decay of the aftershock activity. A regular increase of b can be observed, with b < 1.0 after 0.208 days for the Çay–Eber earthquake. A systematic and similar increase and decrease pattern exists for the b- and p-values of the Çobanlar earthquakes during the first 5 days. 相似文献
10.
We estimate the energetic and spatial characteristics of seismicity in the Algeria–Morocco region using a variety of seismic and statistical parameters, as a first step in a detailed investigation of regional seismic hazard. We divide the region into five seismotectonic regions, comprising the most important tectonic domains in the studied area: the Moroccan Meseta, the Rif, the Tell, the High Plateau, and the Atlas. Characteristic seismic hazard parameters, including the Gutenberg–Richter b-value, mean seismic activity rate, and maximum possible earthquake magnitude, were computed using an extension of the Aki–Utsu procedure for incomplete earthquake catalogs for each domain, based on recent earthquake catalogs compiled for northern Morocco and northern Algeria. Gutenberg–Richter b-values for each zone were initially estimated using the approach of Weichert (Bull Seismol Soc Am 70:1337–1346, 1980): the estimated b-values are 1.04 ± 0.04, 0.93 ± 0.10, 0.72 ± 0.03, 0.87 ± 0.02, and 0.77 ± 0.02 for the Atlas, Meseta, High Plateau, Rif, and Tell seismogenic zones, respectively. The fractal dimension D 2 was also estimated for each zone. From the ratio D 2/b, it appears that the Tell and Rif zones, with ratios of 2.09 and 2.12, respectively, have the highest potential earthquake hazard in the region. The Gutenberg–Richter relationship analysis allows us to derive that in the Tell and Rif, the number of earthquake with magnitude above Mw 4.0, since 1925 normalized to decade and to square cell with 100-km sides is equal to 2.6 and 1.91, respectively. This study provides the first detailed information about the potential seismicity of these large domains, including maximum regional magnitudes, characteristics of spatial clustering, and distribution of seismic energy release. 相似文献
11.
Zoya Farajpour Mehdi Zare Shahram Pezeshk Anooshiravan Ansari Esmael Farzanegan 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2018,11(4):80
This paper discusses a newly developed high-quality integrated dataset of shallow earthquake ground motions that occurred in Iran, from 1976 to 2013. A total of 860 three-component strong motion records are processed from 183 earthquake events, moment magnitudes 5.0?≤?M w ?≤?7.4, and rupture distances of R RUP ≤ 120 km. Strong motion data from Iran having special tectonic features and shallow earthquakes with depths less than 35 km are included. This paper presents a thorough procedure used to collect and to generate a database following the Next-Generation Attenuation-West research projects. This database can be used in the development and ranking of ground motion models and for seismological and engineering hazard and risk analyses. Unprocessed strong motion records are obtained from the Iranian Strong Motion Network (ISMN). The time series collected were thoroughly examined through several rounds of quality reviews. The newly generated database includes the peak ground acceleration, peak ground velocity, and pseudo-spectral acceleration for the 5% damped with periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 s. The database also includes ground motion information and source characterization and parameters. This study is the near-source compiled ground motion database that can be used for Iran, and it is consistent with standard worldwide databases. 相似文献
12.
Seismic source characteristics in the Kachchh rift basin and Saurashtra horst tectonic blocks in the stable continental region (SCR) of western peninsular India are studied using the earthquake catalog data for the period 2006–2011 recorded by a 52-station broadband seismic network known as Gujarat State Network (GSNet) running by Institute of Seismological Research (ISR), Gujarat. These data are mainly the aftershock sequences of three mainshocks, the 2001 Bhuj earthquake (M w 7.7) in the Kachchh rift basin, and the 2007 and 2011 Talala earthquakes (M w ≥ 5.0) in the Saurashtra horst. Two important seismological parameters, the frequency–magnitude relation (b-value) and the fractal correlation dimension (D c) of the hypocenters, are estimated. The b-value and the D c maps indicate a difference in seismic characteristics of these two tectonic regions. The average b-value in Kachchh region is 1.2 ± 0.05 and that in the Saurashtra region 0.7 ± 0.04. The average D c in Kachchh is 2.64 ± 0.01 and in Saurashtra 2.46 ± 0.01. The hypocenters in Kachchh rift basin cluster at a depth range 20–35 km and that in Saurashtra at 5–10 km. The b-value and D c cross sections image the seismogenic structures that shed new light on seismotectonics of these two tectonic regions. The mainshock sources at depth are identified as lower b-value or stressed zones at the fault end. Crustal heterogeneities are well reflected in the maps as well as in the cross sections. We also find a positive correlation between b- and D c-values in both the tectonic regions. 相似文献
13.
C.-B. Park S. Baik S. Kim J.-W. Choi S.-H. Lee Y. J. Kim 《International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology》2017,14(5):923-932
This study is focused on the use of ultrasound to disrupt Microcystis aeruginosa growth, with consideration for the gap between laboratory-scale experiment and field application. Laboratory-scale sonication systems with different frequencies (i.e., 20, 584, 869, and 1137 kHz) for 30 min at 10-min intervals were conducted to investigate their effectiveness at disrupting M. aeruginosa growth. The toxicological effect of sonicated M. aeruginosa including microcystin-LR was also evaluated using a Daphnia magna acute toxicity test. High frequencies, 869 and 1137 kHz, resulted in more than a 60% reduction of cells after 30 min of sonication. Low to middle frequencies, 20 and 584 kHz, only showed a 30% reduction of cells after 30 min of sonication. High frequencies also led to the inactivation of cell proliferation during M. aeruginosa regrowth, due to cellular destruction and finally cell death. However, the concentration of microcystin-LR and the potential adverse effects of M. aeruginosa on D. magna could not be controlled using ultrasonic frequencies. Therefore, our results suggest that ultrasonic frequencies between 869 and 1137 kHz are effective at controlling bloom formation in M. aeruginosa and the regrowth of M. aeruginosa after sonication, but not at controlling microcystin-LR concentrations and its adverse effects on D. magna. Consequently, a combined purification technology to reduce the cyanotoxins such as microcystin-LR, rather than ultrasonic frequency alone, will be needed to control M. aeruginosa growth and its toxicity levels in the aquatic environment. 相似文献
14.
China has a long history of earthquake records. The Shanxi rift system (SRS) is situated along the axial zone of the domal uplift of the Shanxi Highlands and is the boundary between the Ordos block and the North China Plain block. Strong earthquakes in the SRS have been recorded since the thirteenth century. In our work, we applied the Bayesian probability method using extreme value distribution of earthquake occurrences to estimate the seismic hazard in the SRS. The seismic moment, slip rate, earthquake recurrence rate, and magnitude were considered as the basic parameters for computing the Bayesian prior estimates of the seismicity. These estimates were then updated in terms of Bayes’ theorem and historical estimates of seismicity in the SRS. The probability of occurrence of $M_{\text{s}} = 5.0$ for Z1, Z2, and Z3 is less than 0.3, 0.1, and 0.6, respectively (T = 5 years). The probability of the occurrence of M $\ge$ 8.0 is small for the whole SRS. The selection of upper bound magnitude probably influences the result, and the upper bound magnitude of Z1, Z2, and Z3 may be 7.5, 7.0, and 8.5, respectively. We obtained the values of the magnitude of completeness M c (3.2) and the Gutenberg–Richter b value before applying the Bayesian extreme value distribution of earthquake occurrences method. 相似文献
15.
Chi-Wen Chen Hongey Chen Lun-Wei Wei Guan-Wei Lin Tomoyuki Iida Ryuji Yamada 《Landslides》2017,14(5):1793-1801
This study analyzed 267 landslide landforms (LLs) in the Kumamoto area of Japan from the database of about 0.4 million LLs for the whole of Japan identified from aerial photos by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Resilience of Japan (NIED). Each LL in the inventory is composed of a scarp and a moving mass. Since landslides are prone to reactivation, it is important to evaluate the sliding-recurrence susceptibility of LLs. One possible approach to evaluate the susceptibility of LLs is slope stability analysis. A previous study found a good correlation (R 2 = 0.99) between the safety factor (F s ) and slope angle (α) of F s = 17.3α ?0.843. We applied the equation to the analysis of F s for 267 LLs in the area affected by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (M j = 7.3). The F s was calculated for the following three cases of failure: scarps only, moving mass only, and scarps and moving mass together. Verification with the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake event shows that the most appropriate method for the evaluation of LLs is to consider the failure of scarps and moving mass together. In addition, by analyzing the relationship between the factors of slope of entire landslide and slope of scarp for LLs and comparing the results with the Aso-ohashi landslide, the largest landslide caused by the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake, we also found that morphometric analysis of LLs is useful for forecasting the travel distance of future landslides. 相似文献
16.
Z. H. El-Isa 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2017,10(9):203
The instrumental seismicity that occurred in the Jordan Dead Sea transform region during the period 1900–2014 is compiled from all available sources. Some 492 phosphate mining explosions (M ≤ 3.9) are recognized and filtered from the data. Excluding these, it is found that 4448 earthquakes have occurred with magnitudes M ≥ 3.0. Only 572, 18 and 2 of these had magnitudes M ≥ 4, 5, and 6 in respective order. Average recurrence periods for the 5 and 6 magnitudes are 6.3 and 57 years. Much of these have occurred in sequences and swarms. The epicentral distribution of the compiled instrumental seismicity data shows very good correlation with the general tectonics of the study region. All tectonic elements are active in the present with a noticeable hazard. The regional strike-slip faults of the transform proper remain the major sources of this hazard. They account for not less than 99% of the seismic energy released from all instrumental data. The calculated a-parameter of the whole transform is 6.6. It varies for all its strike-slip faults mostly in the range 6.0–6.6. The b-value of the whole transform and some of its major segments is 1.0. Others show b-variations in the range of 1.1–1.3. Such a- and b-values imply recurrence periods of 38 years and 395 years for the 6 and 7 magnitude earthquakes. Such values, their variations and the seismic moment calculations clearly indicate an appreciable level of seismic hazard associated with all segments. This hazard appears to be highest for Al Ghab segment, followed by Beqa’a and Wadi Araba segments, respectively. The other three segments appear to be of lower hazard. The seismicity of this region is very shallow. More than 99% of the seismic energy has been released from the brittle granitic upper crust whose thickness is about 21 km and its Poisson’s ratio is 0.25. More than 93.6% of the energy was released from its upper 10 km. Very little energy is released from the underlying ductile basaltic crust whose Poisson’s ratio is 0.29. The calculated seismic slip rate along the Whole Jordan Dead Sea transform is 0.54 cm/year if the fault depth is assumed 10 km. It increases to 0.77 and 1.07 cm/year if the fault depth is reduced to 7 and 5 km, respectively. These slip rates are comparable with the long-term geologically deduced rate of 1 cm/year. 相似文献
17.
Gutenberg and Richter developed an empirical relation, \(\log_{10} N(M) = a - bM\), to quantify the seismicity rate of various magnitudes in a given region and time period. They found the equation fit observed data well both globally and for particular regions. In conventional G–R relation, N(M) represents an arithmetic mean. As a result, the arithmetic standard deviation cannot be explicitly incorporated in the log-linear G–R relation. Moreover, this representation is susceptible to influence of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks of major earthquake sequences. To overcome these shortcomings, we propose an alternative representation of the G–R relation in terms of the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation. We select the crustal earthquake data from 1973 to 2011, as listed in the National Earthquake Information Center (NEIC) global catalog and the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) Taiwan regional catalog, to illustrate our methodology. We first show that by using the logarithmic annual seismicity rates we can significantly suppress the influences of spuriously large numbers of aftershocks following major earthquake sequences contained in the Taiwan regional catalog. More significantly, both the logarithmic mean annual seismicity rate and its standard deviation can be explicitly represented in the Gutenberg–Richter relation as follows: where log10 N represents the logarithmic annual seismicity rate. Above analytical equations are very well constrained by observed global seismicity data with \(5.0 \le M \le 7.0\) and by Taiwan seismicity data with \(3.0 \le M \le 5.0\). Both equations can be extrapolated with confidence to simultaneously estimate not only the median annual seismicity rates but also their uncertainties for large earthquakes for the first time since inception of the G–R relation. These equations can be used to improve the conventional probabilistic seismic hazard assessment by including the dispersion of the annual seismicity rate. Finally, the corresponding numerical median annual seismicity rate with its upper and lower bounds obtained from above equations for \(5.0 \le M \le 9.0\) is listed in Table 1.
相似文献
$${\text{For}}\,{\text{global}}\,{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 8.14 - 1.03M \pm (0.04M - 0.13);$$
$${\text{For}}\,{\text{Taiwan}}\;{\text{crustal}}\,{\text{seismicity}}{:}\;\log_{10} N = 5.62 - 0.90M \pm (0.02M + 0.17)$$
Table 1 Observed and estimated median annual seismicity rate and return period with their dispersions for Taiwan and global crustal earthquakes
| Magnitude | Catalog | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan catalog (CWB) | Taiwan catalog (CWB) | Global catalog (NEIC) | Global catalog (NEIC) | |
| Annual rate (event/year) | Return period (year) | Annual rate (event/year) | Return period (year) | |
| M ≥ 5.0 | 24.55 13.18 7.08 | 0.041 0.076 0.14 | 1148.16 977.24 831.76 | 0.0009 0.001 0.0012 |
| M ≥ 5.5 | 8.91 4.68 2.45 | 0.11 0.21 0.41 | 367.28 298.54 242.66 | 0.0027 0.0033 0.0041 |
| M ≥ 6.0 | 3.24 1.66 0.85 | 0.31 0.60 1.18 | 117.49 91.20 70.79 | 0.0085 0.011 0.014 |
| M ≥ 6.5 | 1.17 0.59 0.30 | 0.85 1.69 3.33 | 37.58 27.86 20.65 | 0.027 0.036 0.048 |
| M ≥ 7.0 | 0.43 0.21 0.10 | 2.33 4.76 10.0 | 12.02 8.51 6.03 | 0.083 0.12 0.17 |
| M ≥ 7.5 | 0.15 0.074 0.036 | 6.67 13.51 27.78 | 3.85 2.60 1.76 | 0.26 0.38 0.57 |
| M ≥ 8.0 | 0.056 0.026 0.012 | 17.86 38.46 83.33 | 1.23 0.79 0.51 | 0.81 1.27 1.96 |
| M ≥ 8.5 | 0.020 0.009 0.004 | 50.00 111.11 250.0 | 0.39 0.24 0.15 | 2.56 4.17 6.67 |
| M ≥ 9.0 | 0.0074 0.0033 0.0015 | 135.14 303.03 666.67 | 0.13 0.074 0.04 | 7.69 13.51 25.00 |
18.
Cyclic mobility is a mechanism of ground failure due to lateral spreading of soils during an earthquake that usually occurs in soft or medium stiff saturated soils. The simplified procedures developed by the researchers give a factor of safety for judging the cyclic mobility potential. However, the simplified procedures do not take into account the uncertainty in the parameters required to estimate the cyclic stresses in the soil. In this study, a reliability framework based on the simplified procedure, considering the parameter uncertainty, has been proposed for computing the probability of cyclic mobility of clay deposits for a metro city of India, i.e., Mumbai city (latitudes 18°53′N–19°19′N and longitudes 72°47′E–72°58′E). Extensive geotechnical borehole data from 1028 boreholes across 50 locations in the city area of 390 km2 and laboratory test data are collected and analyzed thoroughly. A correlation between undrained shear strength (Su) and other parameters such as natural water content (w), SPT N value, liquid limit (LL) and plasticity index (PI) has been established for Mumbai city and has been used in the proposed approach. The sensitivity analysis of the proposed approach predicts that Su has significant influence in the evaluation of the cyclic mobility. Cyclic mobility hazard maps are prepared using the geo-statistical analysis tool in GIS, and it shows that the clayey soils at few locations have a 60–90 % probability of cyclic mobility for a moment magnitude (M w) of an earthquake of 7.5. These hazard maps can be used by the geotechnical engineers for the cyclic mobility hazard assessment of Mumbai city. 相似文献
19.
J. Jaunat A. Dupuy F. Huneau H. Celle-Jeanton P. Le Coustumer 《Hydrogeology Journal》2016,24(6):1359-1373
A numerical groundwater model of the weathered crystalline aquifer of Ursuya (a major water source for the north-western Pyrenees region, south-western France) has been computed based on monitoring of hydrological, hydrodynamic and meteorological parameters over 3 years. The equivalent porous media model was used to simulate groundwater flow in the different layers of the weathered profile: from surface to depth, the weathered layer (5?·?10?8?≤?K?≤?5?·? 10?7 m s?1), the transition layer (7?·?10?8?≤?K?≤?1?·? 10?5 m s?1, the highest values being along major discontinuities), two fissured layers (3.5?·?10?8?≤?K?≤?5?·?? 10?4 m s?1, depending on weathering profile conditions and on the existence of active fractures), and the hard-rock basement simulated with a negligible hydraulic conductivity (K = 1 10 ?9 ). Hydrodynamic properties of these five calculation layers demonstrate both the impact of the weathering degree and of the discontinuities on the groundwater flow. The great agreement between simulated and observed hydraulic conditions allowed for validation of the methodology and its proposed use for application on analogous aquifers. With the aim of long-term management of this strategic aquifer, the model was then used to evaluate the impact of climate change on the groundwater resource. The simulations performed according to the most pessimistic climatic scenario until 2050 show a low sensitivity of the aquifer. The decreasing trend of the natural discharge is estimated at about ?360 m3 y?1 for recharge decreasing at about ?5.6 mm y?1 (0.8 % of annual recharge). 相似文献
20.
Xuanmei Fan Gianvito Scaringi Qiang Xu Weiwei Zhan Lanxin Dai Yusheng Li Xiangjun Pei Qin Yang Runqiu Huang 《Landslides》2018,15(5):967-983
On 8th August 2017, a magnitude Ms 7.0 earthquake struck the County of Jiuzhaigou, in Sichuan Province, China. It was the third Ms ≥?7.0 earthquake in the Longmenshan area in the last decade, after the 2008 Ms 8.0 Wenchuan earthquake and the 2013 Ms 7.0 Lushan earthquake. The event did not produce any evident surface rupture but triggered significant mass wasting. Based on a large set of pre- and post-earthquake high-resolution satellite images (SPOT-5, Gaofen-1 and Gaofen-2) as well as on 0.2-m-resolution UAV photographs, a polygon-based interpretation of the coseismic landslides was carried out. In total, 1883 landslides were identified, covering an area of 8.11 km2, with an estimated total volume in the order of 25–30?×?106 m3. The total landslide area was lower than that produced by other earthquakes of similar magnitude with strike-slip motion, possibly because of the limited surface rupture. The spatial distribution of the landslides was correlated statistically to a number of seismic, terrain and geological factors, to evaluate the landslide susceptibility at regional scale and to identify the most typical characteristics of the coseismic failures. The landslides, mainly small-scale rockfalls and rock/debris slides, occurred mostly along two NE-SW-oriented valleys near the epicentre. Comparatively, high landslide density was found at locations where the landform evolves from upper, broad valleys to lower, deep-cut gorges. The spatial distribution of the coseismic landslides did not seem correlated to the location of any known active faults. On the contrary, it revealed that a previously-unknown blind fault segment—which is possibly the north-western extension of the Huya fault—is the plausible seismogenic fault. This finding is consistent with what hypothesised on the basis of field observations and ground displacements. 相似文献