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1.
The purpose of this study is to analyze variability in rainfall threshold for debris flow （critical rainfall for debris flow triggering） after the ML 7.3 Chi-Chi earthquake in central Taiwan in 1999. Two study sites with different geological conditions were surveyed in the earthquake area. Streambed surveys were conducted to continuously monitor debris flows between 1999 and 2006. During the 7-year study period, every debris flow event was identified, and the streambed characterized. Results show that the rainfall threshold for debris flow was remarkably lower just after the Chi-Chi Earthquake, but gradually recovered. To date, this rainfall threshold is still lower than the original level prior to the earthquake. This variability in rainfall threshold is closely related to the mount of sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow, which increased rapidly due to landslides resulting from the earthquake. With the increase in sediment material, the rainfall threshold was lowered severely during the first year following the Chi-Chi earthquake. However, heavy rainfalls mobilized the sediment material, causing debris flows and transporting sediment downstream. With the decrease in sediment material, the rainfall threshold recovered gradually over time. Furthermore, debris flows occurred only in the subbasins that had sufficient sediment material to cause significant movement. Hence, these results confirm that the sediment material in the initiation area of debris flow is a crucial component of the rainfall threshold for debris flow.  相似文献   

2.
Landslides and debris flows associated with forest harvesting can cause much destruction and the influence of the timing of harvesting on these mass wasting processes therefore needs to be assessed in order to protect aquatic ecosystems and develop improved strategies for disaster prevention. We examined the effects of forest harvesting on the frequency of landslides and debris flows in the Sanko catchment (central Japan) using nine aerial photo periods covering 1964 to 2003. These photographs showed a mosaic of different forest ages attributable to the rotational management in this area since 1912. Geology and slope gradient are rather uniformly distributed in the Sanko catchment, facilitating assessment of forest harvesting effects on mass wasting without complication of other factors. Trends of new landslides and debris flows correspond to changes in slope stability explained by root strength decay and recovery; the direct impact of clearcutting on landslide occurrence was greatest in forest stands that were clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier with progressively lesser impacts continuing up to 25 yr after harvesting. Sediment supply rate from landslides in forests clearcut 1 to 10 yr earlier was about 10‐fold higher than in control sites. Total landslide volume in forest stands clearcut 0 to 25 yr earlier was 5·8 × 103 m3 km?2 compared with 1·3 × 103 m3 km?2 in clearcuts >25 yr, indicating a fourfold increase compared with control sites during the period when harvesting affected slope stability. Because landslide scars continue to produce sediment after initial failure, sediment supply from landslides continues for 45 yr in the Sanko catchment. To estimate the effect of forest harvesting and subsequent regeneration on the occurrence of mass wasting in other regions, changes in root strength caused by decay and recovery of roots should be investigated for various species and environmental conditions. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
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4.
Explosive volcanic eruptions can cause long-term landscape change, leading to increased sediment discharge that continues after the cessation of the eruptions. During the period 1990–1995, eruptions of Mount Unzen, Japan, generated large amounts of pyroclastic material, resulting in 57 debris-flow events during 1991–2018. To investigate changes in the relationships between rainfall characteristics and debris-flow occurrence, we conducted the following: geometric analysis of two gullies (i.e., debris-flow initiation zones) using LiDAR (light detection and ranging)-generated 1 m DEMs (digital elevation models); rainfall analysis, based on the relationship between rainfall duration and mean intensity (i.e., considering the intensity–duration, or ID, threshold); and debris-flow monitoring during 2016–2018. Since 1991, rainfall runoff has caused erosion of the supplied pyroclastic material, generating a channel network consisting of incised gullies. With sufficient rainfall, debris flows formed, accompanied by further gully erosion; this resulted in both vertical and lateral adjustments of the cross-sectional geometry. In the two decades since the eruptions ceased, readily mobilized pyroclastic material has become scarce as the gullies have adjusted to local hydrographic conditions. At the same time, the infiltration capacity of the volcanic flank has increased, reducing the capacity for overland flow. As a result, since 2000, rainfall events with intensities above the ID threshold have occurred; however, the lack of sediment supplied by the gullies appears to have hindered the occurrence and development of debris flows. This suggests that debris flows in volcanically perturbed landscapes may occur at lower rainfall thresholds as long as the corresponding upland channels are evolving as a result of intense overland flow. However, as such channels evolve towards equilibrium geometries, the frequency of debris flows decreases in response to the reduction in sediment availability.  相似文献   

5.
Construction of frequency–magnitude (F–M) relationships of debris floods and debris flows is challenging because of few direct observations, discontinuous event occurrence, loss of field evidence, the difficulty of accessing the sediment archive and the challenge of finding suitable statistical methods to analyse the dataset. Consultants often face budget limitations that prohibit application of the full gamut of absolute dating methods, stratigraphic analysis and analytical tools necessary to fully resolve the F–M legacy. In some cases, F–M curves are needed for watersheds without local information, or where obtaining this information is prohibitively expensive. For such watersheds, the F–M relationship may be estimated where several F–M curves have already been assembled in a specific region. Individual F–M curves are normalized by fan area or fan volume, then stratified by process type and geomorphic activity level. This paper describes the development of regional F–M curves for debris flows in southwestern British Columbia and debris flows and debris floods in the Bow River valley near Canmore, Alberta. We apply the regional relationships to other cases in Canada and the United States and demonstrate that the method can be globalized. The regional approach is compared to cases where detailed F–M relationships have been established by other means. Strong negative deviations from the regional debris-flow or debris-flood magnitude trends could signal inherent watershed stability, while strong positive deviations could signal extraordinary landslide processes, or suggest that the fan may be largely of paraglacial origin. We highlight some of these outlying cases and develop a method whereby the regional curves can be meaningfully adjusted, or reliance can be placed on lower or upper confidence bounds of the F–M curves. We caution against the indiscriminate use of the regionally based F–M curves, especially in watersheds where multiple geomorphic processes are active. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
AbstractUsing observations from 688 debris flows, we analyse the hydrologic and landscape characteristics that influenced debris-flow initiation mechanisms and locations in a watershed that had been partially burned by the 2012 Whitewater-Baldy Complex Fire in the Gila Mountains, southern New Mexico. Debris flows can initiate due to different processes. Slopes can fail as discrete landslides and then become fluidized and move downstream as debris flows (landslide initiated) or progressive bulking of sediment from a distributed area can become channelized and concentrated as it moves downslope (runoff generated). In this study, we have an unusual opportunity to investigate both types of debris-flow initiation mechanisms in our observations of debris flows, triggered by an exceptional rainstorm in the autumn of 2013. Additionally, we compare our observations with those of a dataset of 1138 debris flows in the Colorado Front Range, triggered during the same weather system. We found that runoff-generated debris flows dominated in burn areas, and runoff required to start these flows could be well characterized by the Shields stress. Landslide-initiated debris flows were dominant in unburned areas. Debris-flow densities were tied to total rainfall and precipitation intensities. Like the observations in the Colorado Front Range, debris-flow initiation locations were found primarily in areas of relatively sparse vegetation on south-facing slopes between 25 and 40°, and with upslope contributing areas less than 1000 m2. In terms of preferential locations for debris-flow initiations, 2013 vegetation coverage, approximated by Green–Red Vegetation Index metrics, proved to be more influential than the 2012 burn-severity designation. The uniformity of observations between our study area and those in the Colorado Front Range indicate that the underlying hydrologic and landscape patterns of the debris-flow initiation locations documented in these studies could be applicable to the wider southwest and Rocky Mountain regions. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
The Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999 caused disastrous landslides, which triggered numerous debris flows and killed hundreds of people, A critical rainfall intensity line for each debris-flow stream is studied to prevent such a disaster. However, setting rainfall lines from incomplete data is difficult, so this study considered eight critical factors to group streams, such that streams within a cluster have similar rainfall lines. A genetic algorithm is applied to group 377 debris-flow streams selected from the center of an area affected by the Chi-Chi earthquake, These streams are grouped into seven clusters with different characteristics, The results reveal that the proposed method effectively groups debris-flow streams.  相似文献   

8.
Extreme rainfall in June 1949 and November 1985 triggered numerous large debris flows on the steep slopes of North Fork Mountain, eastern West Virginia. Detailed mapping at four sites and field observations of several others indicate that the debris flows began in steep hillslope hollows, propagated downslope through the channel system, eroded channel sediment, produced complex distributions of deposits in lower gradient channels, and delivered sediment to floodwaters beyond the debris-flow termini. Based on the distribution of deposits and eroded surfaces, up to four zones were identified with each debris flow: an upper failure zone, a middle transport/erosion zone, a lower deposition zone, and a sediment-laden floodwater zone immediately downstream from the debris-flow terminus. Geomorphic effects of the debris flows in these zones are spatially variable. The initiation of debris flows in the failure zones and passage through the transport/erosion zones are characterized by degradation; 2300 to 17 000 m3 of sediment was eroded from these zones. The total volume of channel erosion in the transport/erosion zones was 1·3 to 1·5 times greater than the total volume of sediment that initially failed, indicating that the debris flows were effective erosion agents as they travelled through the transport/erosion zones. The overall response in the deposition zones was aggradation. However, up to 43 per cent of the sediment delivered to these zones was eroded by floodwaters from joining tributaries immediately after debris-flow deposition. This sediment was incorporated into floodwaters downstream from the debris-flow termini causing considerable erosion and deposition in these channels. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Debris-flow runout is a fascinating process to understand due to its implications for downstream alluvial fans. Based on the propagation-deposition behaviors of the Dongyuege (DYG) debris flow, in Yunnan, the effect of biofilms on channel surfaces on debris-flow runout is investigated in laboratory flumes with two different internal surfaces: surfaces are lined with granite slabs (Model I) and gravel (Model II), respectively. Our results show that biofilms can significantly reduce frictional resistance to flows. They increase flow velocities, slow down the deceleration of the snouts, prolong runout distances, and subsequently extend the areas covered with resulting deposits, thus greatly assisting the propagation of experimental debris flows. Slippery biofilms consisting mainly of diatoms and their extracellular mucus (ECM) reduce the contact friction between the flume-beds and the overlying fluids, and greatly promote the propagation of tested flows. Well-developed biofilms are found on the underwater channel surfaces of the DYG Creek. Acting as lubricating layers, they likely played a key role in the DYG debris-flow runout. Most of the debris transported during the DYG event was deposited on overbanks, and the sediment that caused the disaster was transported to the populated fan region through the stream-bed clad in the thick biofilms. Owing to their impacts on the development and width of the temporary debris dam breach, the stream-bed covered with biofilms became a direct contributor to the debris-flow hazard. Because of the ubiquitous presence of biofilms on mountain stream-bed surfaces, the development of perennial streamflows can be viewed as an indicator of gully susceptibility to debris flows threatening creek fans. The underwater areas of pre-event channel cross-sections should be regarded as slip or low-friction boundaries, and the parts above stream-levels can be viewed as no-slip boundaries. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
The tectonically stable central highlands of Sri Lanka and its alluvial valleys are the source areas and sinks, respectively, for one of the most prolific Quaternary gemstone provinces in the world. However, the known 10Be/26Al cosmogenic‐nuclide‐determined low natural (preanthropogenic) denudation rates of 2–11 mm kyr?1, and resulting sediment fluxes, are grossly inadequate to deliver the vast throughputs of overburden required to concentrate the known gemstone deposits. Basin‐wide, unstable, slow‐moving channelized landslides and debris flows, aided by biotic factors, are the dominant mechanisms of mass‐wasting on hill‐slopes and bulk delivery of sediment to the alluvial valleys and fluvial networks. Channelization ensures modulated sediment transfer and run‐out during an erosional–depositional continuum. In a selected inventory of landslides, mobilized sediment volumes ranged from less than 1000 cubic metres to a maximum of ～800 000 cubic metres per event. Monsoonal rainfall (both cumulative seasonal and total daily thresholds) is the primary external factor, which interacts with colluvium thickness and steep slopes in triggering landslides. There are three to five ‘threshold’ rainfall events per year in the highlands that can be expected to generate landslides. They can occur under conditions of decreasing daily rainfall as the seasonal total rainfall increases. GIS databases show a very significant spatial overlap and direct causal linkage between several hundred landslide occurrences and the innumerable gem pits and mines in the catchments of the best known mining region of Sri Lanka. Landslide‐associated mass movements, besides providing significant numbers of gemstones to the alluvial valleys over time, are also a fundamental factor in the geomorphic evolution of the rugged central highland landscape. Rainfall‐driven landslide activity may be a natural geological response affecting erosional equilibrium in high‐relief tectonically stable terrains. Climatically forced base level changes will, over time, control sediment storage, removal or reworking in the valleys. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
汶川Ms8.0级地震驱动的构造抬升作用和滑坡、泥石流剥蚀作用如何影响龙门山的地貌生长是目前争论的焦点。本文运用GIS技术,定量计算了湔江流域的坡度、地形起伏度、面积—高程积分等地貌参数,根据这些参数的计算结果,对湔江流域的构造地貌特征进行了量化分析;以汶川Ms8.0级地震重灾区湔江海子河右岸流域的滑坡、泥石流为例,并且利用野外实测资料、卫星照片及数字高程资料等,对于汶川地震驱动的构造抬升与滑坡、泥石流的表面侵蚀过程进行研究,获得以下初步认识:(1)湔江流域的映秀—北川断层以北地区地貌处于"壮年期",坡度、地形起伏度大;(2)汶川Ms8.0级地震后该地区发生了严重的同震滑坡及震后滑坡、泥石流灾害,海子河右岸流域的同震抬升量为5 339×104m3,同震滑坡量为3 852×104m3,同震抬升量大于同震滑坡量,地貌出现生长现象;(3)地震产生的泥石流量应略大于1 000×104m3,同震滑坡物质的30%转化为了泥石流量,因其海子沟右岸陡峻的坡度,绝大部分的泥石流冲入海子河,成为河道沉积物;(4)以目前湔江海子河流水搬运能力,在能够完全搬运出同震滑坡物质的前提下,同震滑坡物质搬运出龙门山至少需要283.2 a,表明在一个地震周期内,龙门山的同震滑坡物质可以搬运出龙门山;(5)准周期性相当震级地震引起的构造抬升及其均衡反弹作用也是龙门山的形成有重要作用的因素之一。  相似文献   

12.
Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h−1 lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Climate change, manifested by an increase in mean, minimum, and maximum temperatures and by more intense rainstorms, is becoming more evident in many regions. An important consequence of these changes may be an increase in landslides in high mountains. More research, however, is necessary to detect changes in landslide magnitude and frequency related to contemporary climate, particularly in alpine regions hosting glaciers, permafrost, and snow. These regions not only are sensitive to changes in both temperature and precipitation, but are also areas in which landslides are ubiquitous even under a stable climate. We analyze a series of catastrophic slope failures that occurred in the mountains of Europe, the Americas, and the Caucasus since the end of the 1990s. We distinguish between rock and ice avalanches, debris flows from de‐glaciated areas, and landslides that involve dynamic interactions with glacial and river processes. Analysis of these events indicates several important controls on slope stability in high mountains, including: the non‐linear response of firn and ice to warming; three‐dimensional warming of subsurface bedrock and its relation to site geology; de‐glaciation accompanied by exposure of new sediment; and combined short‐term effects of precipitation and temperature. Based on several case studies, we propose that the following mechanisms can significantly alter landslide magnitude and frequency, and thus hazard, under warming conditions: (1) positive feedbacks acting on mass movement processes that after an initial climatic stimulus may evolve independently of climate change; (2) threshold behavior and tipping points in geomorphic systems; (3) storage of sediment and ice involving important lag‐time effects. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
This paper describes the application of a methodology for the evaluation of debris-flow risk in alluvial fans by incorporating numerical simulations with Geographical Information Systems to identify potential debris-flow hazard areas. The methodology was applied to a small catchment located in the north-eastern part of Sicily, Italy where an extreme debris flow event occurred in October 2007. The adopted approach integrates a slope stability model that identifies the areas of potential shallow landslides under different meteorological conditions using a two-dimensional finite-element model based on the De Saint Venant equation for the debris-flow propagation. The mechanical properties of the debris were defined using both laboratory and in situ test results. The risk classification of the area under study was derived using total hydrodynamic force per unit width (impact pressure) as an indicator for event intensity. Based on the simulation results, a potential risk zone was identified and mapped.  相似文献   

15.
After wildfire, hillslope and channel erosion produce large amounts of sediment and can contribute significantly to long-term erosion rates. However, pre-erosion high-resolution topographic data (e.g. lidar) is often not available and determining specific contributions from post-fire hillslope and channel erosion is challenging. The impact of post-fire erosion on landscape evolution is demonstrated with Structure from Motion (SfM) Multi-View Stereo (MVS) photogrammetry in a 1 km2 Idaho Batholith catchment burned in the 2016 Pioneer Fire. We use SfM-MVS to quantify post-fire erosion without detailed pre-erosion topography and hillslope transects to improve estimates of rill erosion at adequate spatial scales. Widespread rilling and channel erosion produced a runoff-generated debris-flow following modest precipitation in October 2016. We implemented unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)-based SfM-MVS to derive a 5 cm resolution digital elevation model (DEM) of the channel scoured by debris-flow. In the absence of cm-resolution pre-erosion topography, a synthetic surface was defined by the debris-flow scour's geomorphic signature and we used a DEM of Difference (DoD) to map and quantify channel erosion. We found 3467 ± 422 m3 was eroded by debris-flow scour. Rill dimensions along hillslope transects and Monte Carlo simulation show rilling eroded ~1100 m3 of sediment and define a volume uncertainty of 29%. The total eroded volume (4600 ± 740 m3) we measured in our study catchment is partitioned into 75% channel erosion and 25% rill erosion, reinforcing the importance of catchment size on erosion process-dominance. The deposit volume from the 2016 event was 5700 ± 1140 m3, indicating ~60% contribution from post-fire channel erosion. Dating of charcoal fragments preserved in stratigraphy at the catchment outlet, and reconstructions of prior deposit volumes provide a record of Holocene fire-related debris-flows at this site; results suggest that episodic wildfire-driven erosion (~6 mm/year) dominate millennial-scale erosion (~5 mm/Ka) at this site. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
A model‐based method is proposed for improving upon existing threshold relationships which define the rainfall conditions for triggering shallow landslides but do not allow the magnitude of landsliding (i.e. the number of landslides) to be determined. The SHETRAN catchment‐scale shallow landslide model is used to quantify the magnitude of landsliding as a function of rainfall return period, for focus sites of 180 and 45 km2 in the Italian Southern Alps and the central Spanish Pyrenees. Rainfall events with intensities of different return period are generated for a range of durations (1‐day to 5‐day) and applied to the model to give the number of landslides triggered and the resulting sediment yield for each event. For a given event duration, simulated numbers of landslides become progressively less sensitive to return period as return period increases. Similarly, for an event of given return period, landslide magnitude becomes less sensitive to event duration as duration increases. The temporal distribution of rainfall within an event is shown to have a significant impact on the number of landslides and the timing of their occurrence. The contribution of shallow landsliding to catchment sediment yield is similarly quantified as a function of the rainfall characteristics. Rainfall intensity–duration curves are presented which define different levels of landsliding magnitude and which advance our predictive capability beyond, but are generally consistent with, published threshold curves. The magnitude curves are relevant to the development of guidelines for landslide hazard assessment and forecasting. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Sediments produced by landslides are crucial in the sediment yield of a catchment, debris flow forecasting, and related hazard assessment. On a regional scale, however, it is difficult and time consuming to measure the volumes of such sediment. This paper uses a LiDAR‐derived digital terrain model (DTM) taken in 2005 and 2010 (at 2 m resolution) to accurately obtain landslide‐induced sediment volumes that resulted from a single catastrophic typhoon event in a heavily forested mountainous area of Taiwan. The landslides induced by Typhoon Morakot are mapped by comparison of 25 cm resolution aerial photographs taken before and after the typhoon in an 83.6 km2 study area. Each landslide volume is calculated by subtraction of the 2005 DTM from the 2010 DTM, and the scaling relationship between landslide area and its volume are further regressed. The relationship between volume and area are also determined for all the disturbed areas (VL = 0.452AL1.242) and for the crown areas of the landslides (VL = 2.510AL1.206). The uncertainty in estimated volume caused by use of the LiDAR DTMs is discussed, and the error in absolute volume estimation for landslides with an area >105 m2 is within 20%. The volume–area relationship obtained in this study is also validated in 11 small to medium‐sized catchments located outside the study area, and there is good agreement between the calculation from DTMs and the regression formula. By comparison of debris volumes estimated in this study with previous work, it is found that a wider volume variation exists that is directly proportional to the landslide area, especially under a higher scaling exponent. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

18.
The intensity of soil loss and sediment delivery, representing hydrologic and geomorphic processes within a catchment, accelerates with rapid changes in land cover and rainfall events. An underlying component of sustainable management of water resources is an understanding of spatial and temporal variability and the adverse influences of regional parameters involved in generating sediment following widespread changes in land cover. A calibrated algorithm of soil loss coupled with a sediment delivery ratio (SDR) was applied in raster data layers to improve the capability of a combined model to estimate annual variability in sediment yields related to changes in vegetation cover identified by analyses of SPOT imagery. Four catchments in Kangaroo River State forest were assessed for annual changes in sediment yields. Two catchments were selectively logged in 2007, while the two other sites remained undisturbed. Results of SDR estimates indicated that only a small proportion of total eroded sediment from hillslopes is transported to catchment outlets. Larger SDR values were estimated in regions close to catchment outlets, and the SDR reduced sharply on hillslopes further than 200–300 m from these areas. Estimated sediment yield increased by up to 30% two years after land cover change (logging) in 2009 when more storm events were recorded, despite the moderate density of vegetation cover in 2009 having almost recovered to its initial pre‐logging (2005) condition. Rainfall had the most significant influence on streamflow and sediment delivery in all catchments, with steeply sloping areas contributing large amounts of sediment during moderate and high rainfall years in 2007 and 2009. It is concluded that the current scenario of single‐tree selection logging utilized in the study area is an acceptable and environmentally sound land management strategy for preservation of soil and water resources. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
In recent decades, slope instability in high-mountain regions has often been linked to increase in temperature and the associated permafrost degradation and/or the increase in frequency/intensity of rainstorm events. In this context we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution and potential controlling mechanisms of small- to medium-sized mass movements in a high-elevation catchment of the Italian Alps (Sulden/Solda basin). We found that slope-failure events (mostly in the form of rockfalls) have increased since the 2000s, whereas the occurrence of debris flows has increased only since 2010. The current climate-warming trend registered in the study area apparently increases the elevation of rockfall-detachment areas by approximately 300 m, mostly controlled by the combined effects of frost-cracking and permafrost thawing. In contrast, the occurrence of debris flows does not exhibit such an altitudinal shift, as it is primarily driven by extreme precipitation events exceeding the 75th percentile of the intensity-duration rainfall distribution. Potential debris-flow events in this environment may additionally be influenced by the accumulation of unconsolidated debris over time, which is then released during extreme rainfall events. Overall, there is evidence that the upper Sulden/Solda basin (above ca. 2500 m above sea level [a.s.l.]), and especially the areas in the proximity of glaciers, have experienced a significant decrease in slope stability since the 2000s, and that an increase in rockfalls and debris flows during spring and summer can be inferred. Our study thus confirms that “forward-looking” hazard mapping should be undertaken in these increasingly frequented, high-elevation areas of the Alps, as environmental change has elevated the overall hazard level in these regions.  相似文献   

20.
The hydrologic effect of replacing pasture or other short crops with trees is reasonably well understood on a mean annual basis. The impact on flow regime, as described by the annual flow duration curve (FDC) is less certain. A method to assess the impact of plantation establishment on FDCs was developed. The starting point for the analyses was the assumption that rainfall and vegetation age are the principal drivers of evapotranspiration. A key objective was to remove the variability in the rainfall signal, leaving changes in streamflow solely attributable to the evapotranspiration of the plantation. A method was developed to (1) fit a model to the observed annual time series of FDC percentiles; i.e. 10th percentile for each year of record with annual rainfall and plantation age as parameters, (2) replace the annual rainfall variation with the long term mean to obtain climate adjusted FDCs, and (3) quantify changes in FDC percentiles as plantations age. Data from 10 catchments from Australia, South Africa and New Zealand were used. The model was able to represent flow variation for the majority of percentiles at eight of the 10 catchments, particularly for the 10–50th percentiles. The adjusted FDCs revealed variable patterns in flow reductions with two types of responses (groups) being identified. Group 1 catchments show a substantial increase in the number of zero flow days, with low flows being more affected than high flows. Group 2 catchments show a more uniform reduction in flows across all percentiles. The differences may be partly explained by storage characteristics. The modelled flow reductions were in accord with published results of paired catchment experiments. An additional analysis was performed to characterise the impact of afforestation on the number of zero flow days (Nzero) for the catchments in group 1. This model performed particularly well, and when adjusted for climate, indicated a significant increase in Nzero. The zero flow day method could be used to determine change in the occurrence of any given flow in response to afforestation. The methods used in this study proved satisfactory in removing the rainfall variability, and have added useful insight into the hydrologic impacts of plantation establishment. This approach provides a methodology for understanding catchment response to afforestation, where paired catchment data is not available.  相似文献   

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