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1.
滑坡灾害风险评价的关键理论与技术方法 总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2
滑坡灾害风险评估主要包括滑坡敏感性分析、危险性评价和风险评估3个不同层次的内容。但是,滑坡地质灾害本身的复杂性和滑坡强度的确定、滑坡发生的时空概率估算、承灾体的易损性时空概率分析等难点问题的存在,无疑阻碍了滑坡风险定量评估的推广和应用。在系统分析国内外滑坡灾害风险评估研究成果的基础上,对滑坡灾害风险评价的技术体系进行了总结,提出了不同层次滑坡灾害的研究内容和相应的评价方法;分析了实现滑坡风险有效评价涉及到的难点问题,并结合降雨和地震诱发的滑坡灾害危险性评价国内外的实践,提出了中国未来滑坡灾害风险评价研究的主要内容和技术方法。 相似文献
2.
A review of assessing landslide frequency for hazard zoning purposes 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
The probability of occurrence is one of the key components of the risk equation. To assess this probability in landslide risk analysis, two different approaches have been traditionally used. In the first one, the occurrence of landslides is obtained by computing the probability of failure of a slope (or the reactivation of existing landslides). In the second one, which is the objective of this paper, the probability is obtained by means of the statistical analysis of past landslide events, specifically by the assessment of the past landslide frequency. In its turn, the temporal frequency of landslides may be determined based on the occurrence of landslides or from the recurrence of the landslide triggering events over a regional extent. Hazard assessment using frequency of landslides, which may be taken either individually or collectively, requires complete records of landslide events, which is difficult in some areas. Its main advantage is that it may be easily implemented for zoning. Frequency assessed from the recurrence of landslide triggers, does not require landslide series but it is necessary to establish reliable relations between the trigger, its magnitude and the occurrence of the landslides. The frequency of the landslide triggers can be directly used for landslide zoning. However, because it does not provide information on the spatial distribution of the potential landslides, it has to be combined with landslide susceptibility (spatial probability analysis) to perform landslide hazard zoning. Both the scale of work and availability of data affect the results of the landslide frequency and restrict the spatial resolution of frequency zoning as well. Magnitude–frequency relationships are fundamental elements for the quantitative assessment of both hazard and risk. 相似文献
3.
4.
This paper is a contribution to an important aspect of the systematic and quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. The focus is on site-specific and detailed assessment for rainfall-triggered landslides and, in particular, on the estimation and interpretation of the temporal probability of landsliding. Historical rainfall data over a 109-year period were analysed with particular reference to a site along the Unanderra and Moss Vale Railway Line in the State of New South Wales, Australia. It is shown that the recurrence interval of landsliding and hence annual probability of occurrence is subject to significant uncertainty and that it cannot be regarded as a constant. Accordingly landslide hazard varies spatially as well as being a function of time. For the example case study considered in this paper the annual probability of landslide occurrence was estimated to be in the range 0.026–0.172. However, the mean annual probability of landslide reactivation was estimated to be in the range 0.037–0.078. Utilisation of methods for probability assessment proposed in this paper will contribute to more realistic assessment of hazard and risk and, therefore, to more efficient risk management. 相似文献
5.
Seismic-event-based methodology to obtain earthquake-induced translational landslide regional hazard maps 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
A seismic-event-based methodology to generate earthquake-induced translational landslide maps using Newmark method is proposed. The steps are: (1) to construct a GIS-based geotechnical database; (2) to identify those areas that are susceptible to the occurrence of translational landslides based on available geological information; (3) to compute a static safety factor; (4) to compute the critical acceleration that defines the threshold acceleration required to cause a displacement; (5) to characterize the seismic hazard as a set of stochastic events, collectively exhaustive and mutually exclusive, that fully describes the hazard spatial distribution and annual frequency of occurrence (in accordance with the earthquake location, depth and magnitude) with the appropriate ground-motion prediction equations; (6) to compute the Newmark displacement; and finally, (7) to carry out a probabilistic translational landslide hazard analysis to estimate an exceedance rate of a given displacement. This methodology is applied to Mexico, and maps for return periods of 150 and 500 years are presented. Results shown in maps are estimations of where translational landslides may occur and should be useful to carry out local studies to elaborate recommendations of site specific hazard reduction plans as well as to calculate insurance rates. In addition, these results are useful to identify civil protection actions, risk management at regional and local level, and land use planning, as well as for promoting more detailed vulnerability and risk studies at different scales. 相似文献
6.
Regional assessment of landslide impact in the Three Gorges area, China, using ASTER data: Wushan-Zigui 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
This paper is focussed on the hazard impact of landslides in the Three Gorges, and represents the progression of our ongoing
study on regional land instability assessment in the Three Gorges area using imagery data from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal
Emission Radiometer (ASTER). The key development here is the establishment of a model that integrates land instability with
several factors that can relate hazard to human life, such as slope failures occurring in proximity to built-up areas and
roads, and areas of high landslide risk along the bank of Yangtze and its major tributaries. The method correctly identifies
some of the known destructive landslides in the region, like Qianjiangping and Huangtupo, as belonging to areas of potentially
high landslide impact. Our results suggest that several population centres, including the towns of Wushan and Badong, are
rated at high landslide hazard levels. This study highlights the importance of differentiating between landslide types within
susceptibility assessment, and identifies those locations in the Three Gorges where the probability of landslide occurrence
with negative impact to life and property is greatest. 相似文献
7.
The increased socio-economic significance of landslides has resulted in the application of statistical methods to assess their
hazard, particularly at medium scales. These models evaluate where, when and what size landslides are expected. The method presented in this study evaluates the landslide hazard on the basis of homogenous susceptible
units (HSU). HSU are derived from a landslide susceptibility map that is a combination of landslide occurrences and geo-environmental
factors, using an automated segmentation procedure. To divide the landslide susceptibility map into HSU, we apply a region-growing
segmentation algorithm that results in segments with statistically independent spatial probability values. Independence is
tested using Moran’s I and a weighted variance method. For each HSU, we obtain the landslide frequency from the multi-temporal data. Temporal and
size probabilities are calculated using a Poisson model and an inverse-gamma model, respectively. The methodology is tested
in a landslide-prone national highway corridor in the northern Himalayas, India. Our study demonstrates that HSU can replace
the commonly used terrain mapping units for combining three probabilities for landslide hazard assessment. A quantitative
estimate of landslide hazard is obtained as a joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence for each
HSU for different time periods and for different sizes. 相似文献
8.
提高降雨型滑坡危险性预警精度和空间辨识度具有重要意义.以江西宁都县1980—2001年156个降雨型滑坡为例,首先基于传统的EE-D(early effective rainfall-rainfall duration)阈值法计算不同降雨诱发滑坡的时间概率级别;然后以各级别临界降雨阈值曲线对应的时间概率为因变量,并以对应的前期有效降雨量(early effective rainfall,EE)和降雨历时(D)为自变量,采用逻辑回归拟合出上述因变量与自变量之间的非线性关系,得到降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值;之后对比C5.0决策树和多层感知器的滑坡易发性预测性能;最后利用降雨诱发滑坡的连续概率值与易发性图相耦合以实现连续概率滑坡危险性预警.结果显示：(1)宁都降雨型滑坡连续概率值的逻辑回归方程为1/P=1+e4.062+0.747 4×D-0.079 44×EE,其拟合优度为0.983;(2)2002—2003年的20处用于连续概率阈值测试的降雨型滑坡大都落在连续概率值大于0.7的区域,只有4处落在小于0.7的区域;(3)C5.0决策树预测滑坡易发性的精度显著高于多层感知... 相似文献
9.
Abstract: Landslide research at the British Geological Survey (BGS) is carried out through a number of activities, including surveying, database development and real-time monitoring of landslides. Landslide mapping across the UK has been carried out since BGS started geological mapping in 1835. Today, BGS geologists use a combination of remote sensing and ground-based investigations to survey landslides. The development of waterproof tablet computers (BGS·SIGMAmobile), with inbuilt GPS and GIS for field data capture provides an accurate and rapid mapping methodology for field surveys. Regional and national mapping of landslides is carried out in conjunction with site-specific monitoring, using terrestrial LiDAR and differential GPS technologies, which BGS has successfully developed for this application. In addition to surface monitoring, BGS is currently developing geophysical ground-imaging systems for landslide monitoring, which provide real-time information on subsurface changes prior to failure events. BGS’s mapping and monitoring activities directly feed into the BGS National Landslide Database, the most extensive source of information on landslides in Great Britain. It currently holds over 14?000 records of landslide events. By combining BGS’s corporate datasets with expert knowledge, BGS has developed a landslide hazard assessment tool, GeoSure, which provides information on the relative landslide hazard susceptibility at national scale. 相似文献
10.
This paper presents a methodology for developing a landslide hazard zonation map by integration of global positioning system
(GPS), geographic information system (GIS), and remote sensing (RS) for Western Himalayan Kaghan Valley of Pakistan. The landslides
in the study area have been located and mapped by using GPS. Eleven causative factors such as landuse, elevation, geology,
rainfall intensity, slope inclination, soil, slope aspect, distances from main road, distances from secondary roads, and distances
from main river and those from trunk streams were analyzed for occurrence of landslides. These factors were used with a modified
form of pixel-based information value model to obtain landslide hazard zones. The matrix analysis was performed in remote
sensing to produce a landslide hazard zonation map. The causative factors with the highest effect of landslide occurrence
were landuse, rainfall intensity, distances from main road, distances from secondary roads, and distances from main river
and those from trunk streams. In conclusion, we found that landslide occurrence was only in moderate, high, or very high hazard
zones, and no landslides were in low or very low hazard zones showing 100% accuracy of our results. The landslide hazard zonation
map showed that the current main road of the valley was in the zones of high or very high hazard. Two new safe road routes
were suggested by using the GIS technology. 相似文献
11.
Summary A quantitative procedure for hazard and risk assessment of large landslides that can develop as rock avalanches is discussed
in this paper. Reference is made to the IMIRILAND project, where a multidisciplinary methodology has been developed paying
particular attention to the landslide modeling process that leads to the quantification of the hazard, i.e. the prediction
of the occurrence probability, the involved area and the run-out velocity. The risk assessment methodology is exemplified
in the paper with reference to two cases: the Ceppo Morelli and Rosone landslides, both of which are located in the Italian
Western Alps. The results of these applications show that, despite the development of sophisticated 3D numerical methods,
many uncertainties still remain in the process of modeling large and complex landslides, related in particular to the definition
of the probability of failure and the rheological parameters to be used for the prediction of rock mass behavior. However
geo-mechanical models are found to be very valuable tools to verify, from a mechanical point of view, the assumptions introduced
through the geo-structural and geo-morphological analyses concerning the volume and the kinematics of the unstable mass, and
their role is fundamental for the determination of the involved area when mechanical parameters can be assumed with sufficient
reliability.
Author’s address: Marta Castelli, Politecnico di Torino – Dipartimento di Ingegneria Strutturale e Geotecnica, Corso Duca
degli Abruzzi 24, 10129 Torino, Italy 相似文献
12.
Assessing the hazard of potential landslides is crucial for developing mitigation strategies for landslide disasters. However, accurate assessment of landslide hazard is limited by the lack of landslide inventory maps and difficulty in determining landslide run-out distance. To address these issues, this study developed a novel method combining the InSAR technique with a depth-integrated model. Within this new framework, potential landslides are identified through InSAR and their potential impact areas are subsequently estimated using the depth-integrated model. To evaluate its capability, the proposed method was applied to a landslide event that occurred on November 3, 2018 in Baige village, Tibet, China. The simulated results show that the area with a probability of more than 50% to be affected by landslides matched the real trimlines of the landslide and that the accuracy of the proposed method reached 85.65%. Furthermore, the main deposit characteristics, such as the location of maximum deposit thickness and the main deposit area, could be captured by the proposed method. Potential landslides in the Baige region were also identified and evaluated. The results indicate that in the event of landslides, the collapsed mass has a high probability to block the Jinsha River. It is therefore necessary to implement field monitoring and prepare hazard mitigation strategies in advance. This study provides new insights for regional-scale landslide hazard management and further contributes to the implementation of landslide risk assessment and reduction activities.
相似文献13.
Andreas Günther Paola Reichenbach Jean-Philippe Malet Miet Van Den Eeckhaut Javier Hervás Claire Dashwood Fausto Guzzetti 《Landslides》2013,10(5):529-546
In the framework of the European Soil Thematic Strategy and the associated proposal of a Framework Directive on the protection and sustainable use of soil, landslides were recognised as a soil threat requiring specific strategies for priority area identification, spatial hazard assessment and management. This contribution outlines the general specifications for nested, Tier-based geographical landslide zonings at small spatial scales to identify priority areas susceptible to landslides (Tier 1) and to perform quantitative susceptibility evaluations within these (Tier 2). A heuristic, synoptic-scale Tier 1 assessment exploiting a reduced set of geoenvironmental factors derived from common pan-European data sources is proposed for the European Union and adjacent countries. Evaluation of the susceptibility estimate with national-level landslide inventory data suggests that a zonation of Europe according to, e.g. morphology and climate, and performing separate susceptibility assessments per zone could give more reliable results. To improve the Tier 1 assessment, a geomorphological terrain zoning and landslide typology differentiation are then applied for France. A multivariate landslide susceptibility assessment using additional information on landslide conditioning and triggering factors, together with a historical catalogue of landslides, is proposed for Tier 2 analysis. An approach is tested for priority areas in Italy using small administrative mapping units, allowing for relating socioeconomic census data with landslide susceptibility, which is mandatory for decision making regarding the adoption of landslide prevention and mitigation measures. The paper concludes with recommendations on further work to harmonise European landslide susceptibility assessments in the context of the European Soil Thematic Strategy. 相似文献
14.
Landslide risk assessment is often a difficult task due to the lack of temporal data on landslides and triggering events (frequency), run-out distance, landslide magnitude and vulnerability. The probability of occurrence of landslides is often very difficult to predict, as well as the expected magnitude of events, due to the limited data availability on past landslide activity. In this paper, a qualitative procedure for assessing the exposure of elements at risk is presented for an area of the Apulia region (Italy) where no temporal information on landslide occurrence is available. Given these limitations in data availability, it was not possible to produce a reliable landslide hazard map and, consequently, a risk map. The qualitative analysis was carried out using the spatial multi-criteria evaluation method in a global information system. A landslide susceptibility composite index map and four asset index maps (physical, social, economic and environmental) were generated separately through a hierarchical procedure of standardising and weighting. The four asset index maps were combined in order to obtain a qualitative weighted assets map, which, combined with the landslide susceptibility composite index map, has provided the final qualitative landslide exposure map. The resulting map represents the spatial distribution of the exposure level in the study area; this information could be used in a preliminary stage of regional planning. In order to demonstrate how such an exposure map could be used in a basic risk assessment, a quantification of the economic losses at municipal level was carried out, and the temporal probability of landslides was estimated, on the basis of the expert knowledge. Although the proposed methodology for the exposure assessment did not consider the landslide run-out and vulnerability quantification, the results obtained allow to rank the municipalities in terms of increasing exposure and risk level and, consequently, to identify the priorities for designing appropriate landslide risk mitigation plans. 相似文献
15.
秦岭中部太白县地质灾害发育特征及危险性评估 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
以陕西省太白县为例,分析了秦岭中部山区地质灾害形成的地质环境条件,重点指出在植被茂密山区,异常强降雨及农耕、建房、修路和矿山开采4种人类工程活动对地质灾害的关键诱发作用。对崩塌、滑坡、泥石流和不稳定斜坡4类典型地质灾害进行了亚类细分和发育特征分析,并总结指出了地质灾害区域宏观分布特征。筛选了9种关键的地质灾害影响和诱发因素,基于将集中调查区指示的地质灾害发育规律,外推应用于全区地质灾害评估的思路,利用信息量模型对太白县全区进行了地质灾害危险性定量评估,结果显示高危险区主要集中分布在县域北部人口聚居的盆地区,以及南部河流与公路沿线地段。定量检验显示,危险性评估结果与地质灾害的实际分布十分吻合,表明基于信息量模型的地质灾害危险性评估方法能够很好地适用于秦岭腹地山区。 相似文献
16.
Landslide risk evaluation and hazard zoning for rapid and long-travel landslides in urban development areas 总被引：8，自引：6，他引：2
Risk evaluation for earthquake-induced rapid and long-travel landslides in densely populated urban areas is currently the most important disaster mitigation task in landslide-threatened areas throughout the world. The research achievements of the IPL M-101 APERITIF project were applied to two urban areas in megacities of Japan. One site is in the upper slope of the Nikawa landslide site where previous movements were triggered by the 1995 Hyogoken-Nambu earthquake. During detailed investigation, the slope was found to be at risk from a rapid and long-travel landslide induced by sliding surface liquefaction by earthquakes similar in scale to the 1995 event. A new plan to prevent the occurrence of this phenomenon was proposed and the plan was implemented. Another area is the Tama residential area near Tokyo. A set of field and laboratory investigations including laser scanner, geological drilling and ring-shear tests showed that there was a risk of sliding surface liquefaction for both sites. A geotechnical computer simulation (Rapid/LS) using the quantitative data obtained in the study allowed urban landslide hazard zoning to be made at individual street level. 相似文献
17.
Quantitative assessment of landslide hazard along transportation lines using historical records 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
In this paper, a quantitative landslide hazard model is presented for transportation lines, with an example for a road and
railroad alignment, in parts of Nilgiri hills in southern India. The data required for the hazard assessment were obtained
from historical records available for a 21-year period from 1987 to 2007. A total of 901 landslides from cut slopes along
the railroad and road alignment were included in the inventory. The landslides were grouped into three magnitude classes based
on the landslide type, volume, scar depth, and run-out distance. To calculate landslide hazard, we estimated the total number
of individual landslides per kilometer of the (rail) road for different return periods, based on the relationship between
past landslides (recorded in our database) and triggering events. These were multiplied by the probability that the landslides
belong to a given magnitude class. This gives the hazard for a given return period expressed as the number of landslides of
a given magnitude class per kilometer of (rail) road. The relationship between the total number of landslides and the return
period was established using a Gumbel distribution model, and the probability of landslide magnitude was obtained from frequency–volume
statistics. The results of the analysis indicate that the total number of landslides, from 1- to 50-year return period, varies
from 56 to 197 along the railroad and from 14 to 82 along the road. In total, 18 hazard scenarios were generated using the
three magnitude classes and six return periods (1, 3, 5, 15, 25, and 50 years). The hazard scenarios derived from the model
form the basis for future direct and indirect landslide risk analysis along the transportation lines. The model was validated
with landslides that occurred in the year 2009. 相似文献
18.
Landslide hazard or susceptibility assessment is based on the selection of relevant factors which play a role on the slope instability, and it is assumed that landslides will occur at similar conditions to those in the past. The selected statistical method compares parametric maps with the landslide inventory map, and results are then extrapolated to the entire evaluated territory with a final product of landslide hazard or susceptibility map. Elements at risk are defined and analyzed in relation with landslide hazard, and their vulnerability is thus established. The landslide risk map presents risk scenarios and expected financial losses caused by landslides, and it utilizes prognoses and analyses arising from the landslide hazard map. However, especially the risk scenarios for future in a selected area have a significant importance, the literature generally consists of the landslide susceptibility assessment and papers which attempt to assess and construct the map of the landslide risk are not prevail. In the paper presented herein, landslide hazard and risk assessment using bivariate statistical analysis was applied in the landslide area between Hlohovec and Sered?? cities in the south-western Slovakia, and methodology for the risk assessment was explained in detail. 相似文献
19.
Consequence analysis is, together with hazard evaluation, one of the major steps of landslide risk assessment. However, a significant discrepancy exists between the number of published landslide hazard and landslide consequence studies. While various methodologies for regional-scale hazard assessment have been developed during the last decade, studies for estimating and visualising possible landslide consequences are still limited, and those existing are often difficult to apply in practice mainly because of the lack of data on the historical damage or on landslide damage functions. In this paper, an indicator-based GIS-aided methodology is proposed with an application to regional-scale consequence analysis. The index, called Potential Damage Index, allows describing, quantifying, valuing, totalizing and visualising different types of consequences. The method allows estimating the possible damage caused by landslides by combining weighted indicators reflecting the exposure of the elements at risk. Direct (physical injury, and structural and functional damage) and indirect (socio-economic impacts) consequences are individually analysed and subsequently combined to obtain a map of total consequences due to landsliding. Geographic visualisation of the index allows the delineation of the areas exposed to any type of possible impacts that could be combined with a corresponding map displaying landslide probability of occurrence. The method has been successfully applied to analyse the present consequences in the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps). These maps contribute to development of adequate land use and evacuation plans, and thus are important tools for local authorities and insurance companies. 相似文献
20.
Modeling landslide recurrence in Seattle, Washington, USA 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
Diana Salciarini Jonathan W. Godt William Z. Savage Rex L. Baum Pietro Conversini 《Engineering Geology》2008,102(3-4):227
To manage the hazard associated with shallow landslides, decision makers need an understanding of where and when landslides may occur. A variety of approaches have been used to estimate the hazard from shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, such as empirical rainfall threshold methods or probabilistic methods based on historical records. The wide availability of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and digital topographic data has led to the development of analytic methods for landslide hazard estimation that couple steady-state hydrological models with slope stability calculations. Because these methods typically neglect the transient effects of infiltration on slope stability, results cannot be linked with historical or forecasted rainfall sequences. Estimates of the frequency of conditions likely to cause landslides are critical for quantitative risk and hazard assessments. We present results to demonstrate how a transient infiltration model coupled with an infinite slope stability calculation may be used to assess shallow landslide frequency in the City of Seattle, Washington, USA. A module called CRF (Critical RainFall) for estimating deterministic rainfall thresholds has been integrated in the TRIGRS (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Slope-Stability) model that combines a transient, one-dimensional analytic solution for pore-pressure response to rainfall infiltration with an infinite slope stability calculation. Input data for the extended model include topographic slope, colluvial thickness, initial water-table depth, material properties, and rainfall durations. This approach is combined with a statistical treatment of rainfall using a GEV (General Extreme Value) probabilistic distribution to produce maps showing the shallow landslide recurrence induced, on a spatially distributed basis, as a function of rainfall duration and hillslope characteristics. 相似文献