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1.
Earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) are considered to be an effective, pragmatic, and viable tool for seismic risk reduction in cities. While standard EEWS approaches focus on the real-time estimation of an earthquake’s location and magnitude, innovative developments in EEWS include the capacity for the rapid assessment of damage. Clearly, for all public authorities that are engaged in coordinating emergency activities during and soon after earthquakes, real-time information about the potential damage distribution within a city is invaluable. In this work, we present a first attempt to design an early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment. In particular, the procedure uses typical real-time information (i.e., P-wave arrival times and early waveforms) derived from a regional seismic network for locating and evaluating the size of an earthquake, information which in turn is exploited for extracting a risk map representing the potential distribution of damage from a dataset of predicted scenarios compiled for the target city. A feasibility study of the procedure is presented for the city of Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan, which is surrounded by the Kyrgyz seismic network by mimicking the ground motion associated with two historical events that occurred close to Bishkek, namely the 1911 Kemin (M?=?8.2; ±0.2) and the 1885 Belovodsk (M?=?6.9; ±0.5) earthquakes. Various methodologies from previous studies were considered when planning the implementation of the early warning and rapid response procedure for real-time risk assessment: the Satriano et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 98(3):1482–1494, 2008) approach to real-time earthquake location; the Caprio et al. (Geophys Res Lett 38:L02301, 2011) approach for estimating moment magnitude in real time; the EXSIM method for ground motion simulation (Motazedian and Atkinson, Bull Seismol Soc Am 95:995–1010, 2005); the Sokolov (Earthquake Spectra 161: 679–694, 2002) approach for estimating intensity from Fourier amplitude spectra; and the Tyagunov et al. (Nat Hazard Earth Syst Sci 6:573–586, 2006) approach for risk computation. Innovatively, all these methods are jointly applied to assess in real time the seismic risk of a particular target site, namely the city of Bishkek. Finally, the site amplification and vulnerability datasets considered in the proposed methodology are taken from previous studies, i.e., Parolai et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am, 2010) and Bindi et al. (Soil Dyn Earthq Eng, 2011), respectively.  相似文献   

2.
Rapid magnitude estimate procedures represent a crucial part of proposed earthquake early warning systems. Most of these estimates are focused on the first part of the P-wave train, the earlier and less destructive part of the ground motion that follows an earthquake. Allen and Kanamori (Science 300:786–789, 2003) proposed to use the predominant period of the P-wave to determine the magnitude of a large earthquake at local distance and Olivieri et al. (Bull Seismol Soc Am 185:74–81, 2008) calibrated a specific relation for the Italian region. The Mw 6.3 earthquake hit Central Italy on April 6, 2009 and the largest aftershocks provide a useful dataset to validate the proposed relation and discuss the risks connected to the extrapolation of magnitude relations with a poor dataset of large earthquake waveforms. A large discrepancy between local magnitude (ML) estimated by means of $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ evaluation and standard ML (6.8 ± 1.5 vs. 5.9 ± 0.4) suggests using caution when ML vs. $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ calibrations do not include a relevant dataset of large earthquakes. Effects from large residuals could be mitigated or removed introducing selection rules on τ p function, by regionalizing the ML vs. $\tau_p^{{\rm max}}$ function in the presence of significant tectonic or geological heterogeneity, and using probabilistic and evolutionary methods.  相似文献   

3.
On 23 October 2011 at 1341 local time, a strong earthquake (Mw?=?7.1) occurred east of Lake Van (KOERI; Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute). The focal parameters of the main shock and 29 aftershocks with M?≥?4.0 were obtained from regional broadband seismic data from KOERI network by using Regional Moment Tensor Inversion Code (Dreger 2002). It is confirmed that the main shock had thrust faulting mechanism. The stress tensor analysis was completed using the focal mechanism solutions and the software developed by (Gephart Comp Geosci 16: 953-989, 1990). The maximum principal stress (P compressional) of the main shock is aligned in a N-S (NNW/SSE) direction and the tensional axis (T dilatation) is aligned in an E-W (ENE-WSW) direction. The b value is calculated as 0.96 using the maximum likelihood method (Utsu 1999).  相似文献   

4.
We estimate seismological fracture energies from two subsets of events selected from the seismic sequences of L’Aquila (2009), and Northridge (1994): 57 and 16 selected events, respectively, including the main shocks. Following Abercrombie and Rice (Geophys J Int 162: 406–424, 2005), we postulate that fracture energy (G) represents the post-failure integral of the dynamic weakening curve, which is described by the evolution of shear traction as a function of slip. Following a direct-wave approach, we compute mainshock-/aftershock-source spectral ratios, and analyze them using the approach proposed by Malagnini et al. (Pure Appl. Geophys., this issue, 2014) to infer corner frequencies and seismic moment. Our estimates of source parameters (including fracture energies) are based on best-fit grid-searches performed over empirical source spectral ratios. We quantify the source scaling of spectra from small and large earthquakes by using the MDAC formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised Magnitude and Distance Amplitude Correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001). The source parameters presented in this paper must be considered as point-source estimates representing averages calculated over specific ruptured portions of the fault area. In order to constrain the scaling of fracture energy with coseismic slip, we investigate two different slip-weakening functions to model the shear traction as a function of slip: (i) a power law, as suggested by Abercrombie and Rice (Geophys J Int 162: 406–424, 2005), and (ii) an exponential decay. Our results show that the exponential decay of stress on the fault allows a good fit between measured and predicted fracture energies, both for the main events and for their aftershocks, regardless of the significant differences in the energy budgets between the large (main) and small earthquakes (aftershocks). Using the power-law slip-weakening function would lead us to a very different situation: in our two investigated sequences, if the aftershock scaling is extrapolated to events with large slips, a power law (a la Abercrombie and Rice) would predict unrealistically large stress drops for large, main earthquakes. We conclude that the exponential stress evolution law has the advantage of avoiding unrealistic stress drops and unbounded fracture energies at large slip values, while still describing the abrupt shear-stress degradation observed in high-velocity laboratory experiments (e.g., Di Toro et al., Fault lubrication during earthquakes, Nature 2011).  相似文献   

5.
We applied the maximum likelihood method produced by Kijko and Sellevoll (Bull Seismol Soc Am 79:645–654, 1989; Bull Seismol Soc Am 82:120–134, 1992) to study the spatial distributions of seismicity and earthquake hazard parameters for the different regions in western Anatolia (WA). Since the historical earthquake data are very important for examining regional earthquake hazard parameters, a procedure that allows the use of either historical or instrumental data, or even a combination of the two has been applied in this study. By using this method, we estimated the earthquake hazard parameters, which include the maximum regional magnitude $ \hat{M}_{\max } , $ the activity rate of seismic events and the well-known $ \hat{b} $ value, which is the slope of the frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relationship. The whole examined area is divided into 15 different seismic regions based on their tectonic and seismotectonic regimes. The probabilities, return periods of earthquakes with a magnitude M?≥?m and the relative earthquake hazard level (defined as the index K) are also evaluated for each seismic region. Each of the computed earthquake hazard parameters is mapped on the different seismic regions to represent regional variation of these parameters. Furthermore, the investigated regions are classified into different seismic hazard level groups considering the K index. According to these maps and the classification of seismic hazard, the most seismically active regions in WA are 1, 8, 10 and 12 related to the Alia?a Fault and the Büyük Menderes Graben, Aegean Arc and Aegean Islands.  相似文献   

6.
Unloaded natural rock masses are known to generate seismic signals (Green et al., 2006; Hainzl et al., 2006; Husen et al., 2007; Kraft et al., 2006). Following a 1,000 m3 mass failure into the Mediterranean Sea, centimeter-wide tensile cracks were observed to have developed on top of an unstable segment of the coastal cliff. Nanoseismic monitoring techniques (Wust-Bloch and Joswig, 2006; Joswig, 2008), which function as a seismic microscope for extremely weak seismic events, were applied to verify whether brittle failure is still generated within this unconsolidated sandstone mass and to determine whether it can be detected. Sixteen days after the initial mass failure, three small-aperture sparse arrays (Seismic Navigation Systems-SNS) were deployed on top of this 40-m high shoreline cliff. This paper analyzes dozens of spiky nanoseismic (?2.2 ≥ M L ≥ ?3.4) signals recorded over one night in continuous mode (at 200 Hz) at very short slant distances (3–67 m). Waveform characterization by sonogram analysis (Joswig, 2008) shows that these spiky signals are all short in duration (>0.5 s). Most of their signal energy is concentrated in the 10–75 Hz frequency range and the waveforms display high signal similarity. The detection threshold of the data set reaches M L ?3.4 at 15 m and M L ?2.7 at 67 m. The spatial distribution of source signals shows 3-D clustering within 10 m from the cliff edge. The time distribution of M L magnitude does not display any decay pattern of M L over time. This corroborates an unusual event decay over time (modified Omori’s law), whereby an initial quiet period is followed by regained activity, which then fades again. The polarization of maximal waveform amplitude was used to estimate spatial stress distribution. The orientation of ellipses displaying maximal signal energy is consistent with that of tensile cracks observed in the field and agrees with rock mechanics predictions. The M L– surface rupture length relationship displayed by our data fits a constant-slope extrapolation of empirical data collected by Wells and Coppersmith (1994) for normal fault features at much larger scale. Signal characterization and location as well as the absence of direct anthropogenic noise sources near the monitoring site, all indicate that these nanoseismic signals are generated by brittle failure within the top section of the cliff. The atypical event decay over time that was observed suggests that the cliff material is undergoing post-collapse bulk strain accommodation. This feasibility study demonstrates the potential of nanoseismic monitoring in rapidly detecting, locating and analyzing brittle failure generated within unconsolidated material before total collapse occurs.  相似文献   

7.
We estimate the corner frequencies of 20 crustal seismic events from mainshock–aftershock sequences in different tectonic environments (mainshocks 5.7 < M W < 7.6) using the well-established seismic coda ratio technique (Mayeda et al. in Geophys Res Lett 34:L11303, 2007; Mayeda and Malagnini in Geophys Res Lett, 2010), which provides optimal stability and does not require path or site corrections. For each sequence, we assumed the Brune source model and estimated all the events’ corner frequencies and associated apparent stresses following the MDAC spectral formulation of Walter and Taylor (A revised magnitude and distance amplitude correction (MDAC2) procedure for regional seismic discriminants, 2001), which allows for the possibility of non-self-similar source scaling. Within each sequence, we observe a systematic deviation from the self-similar \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - 3} \) line, all data being rather compatible with \( M_{0} \propto \mathop f\nolimits_{\text{c}}^{ - (3 + \varepsilon )} \) , where ε > 0 (Kanamori and Rivera in Bull Seismol Soc Am 94:314–319, 2004). The deviation from a strict self-similar behavior within each earthquake sequence of our collection is indicated by a systematic increase in the estimated average static stress drop and apparent stress with increasing seismic moment (moment magnitude). Our favored physical interpretation for the increased apparent stress with earthquake size is a progressive frictional weakening for increasing seismic slip, in agreement with recent results obtained in laboratory experiments performed on state-of-the-art apparatuses at slip rates of the order of 1 m/s or larger. At smaller magnitudes (M W < 5.5), the overall data set is characterized by a variability in apparent stress of almost three orders of magnitude, mostly from the scatter observed in strike-slip sequences. Larger events (M W > 5.5) show much less variability: about one order of magnitude. It appears that the apparent stress (and static stress drop) does not grow indefinitely at larger magnitudes: for example, in the case of the Chi–Chi sequence (the best sampled sequence between M W 5 and 6.5), some roughly constant stress parameters characterize earthquakes larger than M W ~ 5.5. A representative fault slip for M W 5.5 is a few tens of centimeters (e.g., Ide and Takeo in J Geophys Res 102:27379–27391, 1997), which corresponds to the slip amount at which effective lubrication is observed, according to recent laboratory friction experiments performed at seismic slip velocities (V ~ 1 m/s) and normal stresses representative of crustal depths (Di Toro et al. in Nature in press, 2011, and references therein). If the observed deviation from self-similar scaling is explained in terms of an asymptotic increase in apparent stress (Malagnini et al. in Pure Appl Geophys, 2014, this volume), which is directly related to dynamic stress drop on the fault, one interpretation is that for a seismic slip of a few tens of centimeters (M W ~ 5.5) or larger, a fully lubricated frictional state may be asymptotically approached.  相似文献   

8.
We characterize the heterogeneous source slip model of intraslab earthquakes to compare source scaling properties with those of inland crustal and subduction-zone plate-boundary earthquakes. We extracted rupture area (S), total area of asperity (S a), average slip (D) and average slip on asperity (D a) of eleven intraslab earthquakes following the procedure proposed by Somerville et al. (Seism Res Lett 70:59?C80, 1999) and proposed the empirical scaling relationship formula of S, S a, and D for intraslab earthquakes. Under the same seismic moment, an intraslab earthquake has a smaller rupture area and total area of asperity, and smaller average slip than an inland crustal earthquake. The area ratio of asperity area and total rupture area of intraslab earthquakes are similar to those of inland crustal earthquakes. The strong motion generation area (SMGA) scaling of intraslab earthquakes appears self-similar, and those results support the idea the characterized source model of intraslab earthquakes can be modeled in a manner similar to that of inland crustal earthquakes.  相似文献   

9.
The 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, a major intraplate earthquake with M w 7.9, occurred on the slowly deforming Longmenshan fault. To better understand the causes of this devastating earthquake, we need knowledge of the regional stress field and the underlying geodynamic processes. Here, we determine focal mechanism solutions (FMSs) of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake sequence (WES) using both P-wave first-motion polarity data and SH/P amplitude ratio (AR) data. As P-wave polarities are more reliable information, they are given priority over SH/P AR, the latter of which are used only when the former has loose constraint on the FMSs. We collect data from three categories: (1) permanent stations deployed by the China Earthquake Administration (CEA); (2) the Western Sichuan Passive Seismic Array (WSPSA) deployed by Institute of Geology, CEA; (3) global stations from Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology. Finally, 129 events with magnitude over M s 4.0 in the 2008 WES are identified to have well-constrained FMSs. Among them, 83 are well constrained by P-wave polarities only as shown by Cai et al. (Earthq Sci 24(1):115–125, 2011), and the rest of which are newly constrained by incorporating SH/P AR. Based on the spatial distribution and FMSs of the WES, we draw following conclusions: (1) the principle compressional directions of most FMSs of the WES are subhorizontal, generally in agreement with the conclusion given by Cai et al. (2011) but with a few modifications that the compressional directions are WNW–ESE around Wenchuan and ENE–WSW around Qingchuan, respectively. The subhorizontal compressional direction along the Longmenshan fault from SW to NE seems to have a left-lateral rotation, which agrees well with regional stress field inverted by former researchers (e.g., Xu et al., Acta Seismol Sin 30(5), 1987; Acta Geophys Sin 32(6), 1989; Cui et al., Seismol Geol 27(2):234–242, 2005); (2) the FMSs of the events not only reflected the regional stress state of the Longmenshan region, but also were obviously controlled by the faults to some extent, which was pointed out by Cai et al. (2011) and Yi et al. (Chin J Geophys 55(4):1213–1227, 2012); (3) while the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and some of its strong aftershocks released most of the elastic energy accumulated on the Longmenshan fault, some other aftershocks seem to occur just for releasing the elastic energy promptly created by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and some of its strong aftershocks. (4) Our results further suggest that the Longmenshan fault from Wenchuan to Beichuan was nearly fully destroyed by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake and accordingly propose that there is less probability for great earthquakes in the middle part of the Longmenshan fault in the near future, although there might be a barrier to the southwest of Wenchuan and it is needed to pay some attention on it in the near future.  相似文献   

10.
“Repeating earthquakes” identified by waveform cross-correlation, with inter-event separation of no more than 1 km, can be used for assessment of location precision. Assuming that the network-measured apparent inter-epicenter distance X of the “repeating doublets” indicates the location precision, we estimated the regionalized location quality of the China National Seismograph Network by comparing the “repeating events” in and around China by Schaff and Richards (Science 303: 1176–1178, 2004; J Geophys Res 116: B03309, 2011) and the monthly catalogue of the China Earthquake Networks Center. The comparison shows that the average X value of the China National Seismograph Network is approximately 10 km. The mis-location is larger for the Tibetan Plateau, west and north of Xinjiang, and east of Inner Mongolia, as indicated by larger X values. Mis-location is correlated with the completeness magnitude of the earthquake catalogue. Using the data from the Beijing Capital Circle Region, the dependence of the mis-location on the distribution of seismic stations can be further confirmed.  相似文献   

11.
We performed three-dimensional (3-D) finite difference simulations of long-period ground motions (2–10 s) in the Kanto basin using the Japan Seismic Hazard Information Station (J-SHIS 2009), Yamada and Yamanaka (Exploration Geophysics 65(3):139–150, 2012) (YY), and Head Quarter for Earthquake Research Promotion (HERP 2012) velocity models for two intermediate depth (68–80 km) moderate earthquakes (Mw 5.8–5.9), which occurred beneath the Kanto basin. The models primarily differ in the basic data set used in the construction of the velocity models. The J-SHIS and HERP models are the results of integration of mainly geological, geophysical, and earthquake data. On the other hand, the YY model is oriented towards the microtremor-array-observation data. We obtained a goodness of fit between the observed and synthetic data based on three parameters, peak ground velocities (PGVs), smoothed Fourier spectra (FFT), and cross-correlations, using an algorithm proposed by Olsen and Mayhew (Seism Res Lett 81:715–723, 2010). We found that the three models reproduced the PGVs and FFT satisfactorily at most sites. However, the models performed poorly in terms of cross-correlations especially at the basin edges. We found that the synthetics using the YY model overestimate the observed waveforms at several sites located in the areas having V s 0.3 km/s in the top layer; on the other hand, the J-SHIS and HERP models explain the waveforms better at the sites and perform similarly at most sites. We also found that the J-SHIS and HERP models consist of thick sediments beneath some sites, where the YY model is preferable. Thus, we have concluded that the models require revisions for the reliable prediction of long-period ground motions from future large earthquakes.  相似文献   

12.
It has been two decades since the last comprehensive standard model of ambient earth noise was published Peterson (Observations and modelling of seismic background noise, US Geological Survey, open-file report 93–322, 1993). The PETERSON model was updated by analyzing the absolute quietest conditions for stations within the GSN (Berger et al. in J Geophys Res 109, 2005; Mcnamara and Buland in Bull Seism Soc Am 94:1517–1527, 2004; Ringler et al. in Seismol Res Lett 81(4) doi:10.1785/gssrl.81.4.605, 2010). Unfortunately, both the original model and the updated models did not include any deployed station in North Africa and Middle East, which reflects the noise levels within the desert environment of those regions. In this study, a survey was conducted to create a new seismic noise model from very broadband stations which recently deployed in North Africa. For this purpose, 1 year of continuous recording of seismic noise data of the Egyptian National Seismic Network (ENSN) was analyzed in order to create a new noise model. Seasonal and diurnal variations in noise spectra were recorded at each station. Moreover, we constructed a new noise model for each individual station. Finally, we obtained a new cumulative noise model for all the stations. We compared the new high-noise model (EHNM) and new low-noise model (ELNM) with both the high-noise model (NHNM) and low-noise model (NLNM) of Peterson (Observations and modelling of seismic background noise, US Geological Survey, open-file report 93–322, 1993). The obtained noise levels are considerably lower than low-noise model of Peterson (Observations and modelling of seismic background noise, US Geological Survey, open-file report 93–322, 1993) at ultra long period band (ULP band), but they are still below the high-noise model of Peterson (Observations and modelling of seismic background noise, US Geological Survey, open-file report 93–322, 1993). The results of this study could be considered as a first step to create permanent seismic noise models for North Africa and Middle East regions.  相似文献   

13.
Three-dimensional frequency dependent S-wave quality factor (Qβ(f)) value for the central Honshu region of Japan has been determined in this paper using an algorithm based on inversion of strong motion data. The method of inversion for determination of three-dimensional attenuation coefficients is proposed by Hashida and Shimazaki (J Phys Earth. 32, 299–316, 1984) and has been used and modified by Joshi (Curr Sci. 90, 581–585, 2006; Nat Hazards. 43, 129–146, 2007) and Joshi et al. (J. Seismol. 14, 247–272, 2010). Twenty-one earthquakes digitally recorded on strong motion stations of Kik-net network have been used in this work. The magnitude of these earthquake ranges from 3.1 to 4.2 and depth ranging from 5 to 20 km, respectively. The borehole data having high signal to noise ratio and minimum site effect is used in the present work. The attenuation structure is determined by dividing the entire area into twenty-five three-dimensional blocks of uniform thickness having different frequency-dependent shear wave quality factor. Shear wave quality factor values have been determined at frequencies of 2.5, 7.0 and 10 Hz from record in a rectangular grid defined by 35.4°N to 36.4°N and 137.2°E to 138.2°E. The obtained attenuation structure is compared with the available geological features in the region and comparison shows that the obtained structure is capable of resolving important tectonic features present in the area. The proposed attenuation structure is compared with the probabilistic seismic hazard map of the region and shows that it bears some remarkable similarity in the patterns seen in seismic hazard map.  相似文献   

14.
On the selection of GMPEs for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
The Vrancea subcrustal seismic source is characterized by large magnitude ( $M_{W} \ge 7$ ) intermediate-depth earthquakes that occur two or three times during a century on average. In this study several procedures are used to grade four candidate ground motion prediction equations proposed for Vrancea source in the SHARE project. In the work of Delavaud et al. (J Seismol 16(3):451–473, 2012) four ground motion prediction models developed for subduction zones (Zhao et al. in Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006; Atkinson and Boore in Bull Seism Soc Am 93(4):1703–1729, 2003; Youngs et al. in Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997; Lin and Lee in Bull Seism Soc Am 98(1):220–240, 2008) are suggested as suitable for Vrancea subcrustal seismic source. The paper presents the appropriateness analysis of the four suggested ground motion prediction equations done using a dataset of 109 triaxial accelerograms recorded during seven Vrancea seismic events with moment magnitude $M_{W}$ between 5.4 and 7.4, occurred in the past 35 years. The strong ground motions were recorded in Romania, as well as in Bulgaria, Republic of Moldova and Serbia. Based on the ground motion dataset several goodness-of-fit measures are used in order to quantify how well the selected models match with the recorded data. The compatibility of the four ground motion prediction models with respect to magnitude scaling and distance scaling implied by strong ground motion dataset is investigated as well. The analyses show that the Youngs et al. (Seism Res Lett 68(1):58–73, 1997) and Zhao et al. (Bull Seism Soc Am 96(3):898–913, 2006) ground motion prediction models have a better fit with the data and can be candidate models for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment.  相似文献   

15.
The earthquake occurred in Lushan County on 20 April, 2013 caused heavy casualty and economic loss. In order to understand how the seismic energy propagates during this earthquake and how it causes the seismic hazard, we simulated the strong ground motions from a representative kinematic source model by Zhang et al. (Chin J Geophys 56(4):1408–1411, 2013) for this earthquake. To include the topographic effects, we used the curved grids finite difference method by Zhang and Chen (Geophys J Int 167(1):337–353, 2006), Zhang et al. (Geophys J Int 190(1):358–378, 2012) to implement the simulations. Our results indicated that the majority of seismic energy concentrated in the epicentral area and the vicinal Sichuan Basin, causing the XI and VII degree intensity. Due to the strong topographic effects of the mountain, the seismic intensity in the border area across the northeastern of Boxing County to the Lushan County also reached IX degree. Moreover, the strong influence of topography caused the amplifications of ground shaking at the mountain ridge, which is easy to cause landslides. These results are quite similar to those observed in the Wenchuan earthquake of 2008 occurred also in a strong topographic mountain area.  相似文献   

16.
In a companion article Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4, 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) present a new ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) for estimating 5 %-damped horizontal pseudo-acceleration spectral (PSA) ordinates for shallow active crustal regions in Europe and the Middle East. This study provides a supplementary viscous damping model to modify 5 %-damped horizontal spectral ordinates of Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) for damping ratios ranging from 1 to 50 %. The paper also presents another damping model for scaling 5 %-damped vertical spectral ordinates that can be estimated from the vertical-to-horizontal (V/H) spectral ratio GMPE that is also developed within the context of this study. For consistency in engineering applications, the horizontal and vertical damping models cover the same damping ratios as noted above. The article concludes by introducing period-dependent correlation coefficients to compute horizontal and vertical conditional mean spectra (Baker in J Struct Eng 137:322–331, 2011). The applicability range of the presented models is the same as of the horizontal GMPE proposed by Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b): as for spectral periods $0.01 \hbox { s}\le \,\hbox {T}\le \,4\hbox { s}$ as well as PGA and PGV for V/H model; and in terms of seismological estimator parameters $4\le \hbox {M}_\mathrm{w} \le 8, \hbox { R} \le 200 \hbox { km}, 150\hbox { m/s}\le \hbox { V}_\mathrm{S30}\le $ 1,200 m/s, for reverse, normal and strike-slip faults. The source-to-site distance measures that can be used in the computations are epicentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{epi})$ , hypocentral $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{hyp})$ and Joyner–Boore $(\hbox {R}_\mathrm{JB})$ distances. The implementation of the proposed GMPEs will facilitate site-specific adjustments of the spectral amplitudes predicted from probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Europe and the Middle East region. They can also help expressing the site-specific design ground motion in several formats. The consistency of the proposed models together with the Akkar et al. (Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9461-4 2013a; Bull Earthq Eng, doi:10.1007/s10518-013-9508-6, 2013b) GMPE may be advantageous for future modifications in the ground-motion definition in Eurocode 8 (CEN in Eurocode 8, Design of structures for earthquake resistance—part 1: general rules, seismic actions and rules for buildings. European Standard NF EN 1998-1, Brussels, 2004).  相似文献   

17.
In this paper, we introduce a new method for estimating the source parameters of moderate earthquakes (M w ~5.0) by modeling short-period teleseismic waveforms. This method uses a grid-search algorithm to minimize misfits between observed data and synthetic seismograms in depth, magnitude, and mechanism domain in a relative high-frequency range of 0.8–2.0 Hz, similar to the traditional cut-and-paste method used in regional modeling (Zhu and Helmberger, Bull Sesimol Soc Am 86:1634–1641, 1996). In this frequency range, a significant challenge is determining the initial P-wave polarity because of a low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Therefore we first determine source properties for a master earthquake with a relative strong SNR. Both the travel time and amplitude corrections are developed relative to the reference 1D model along each path used in inverting the master event. We then applied these corrections to other earthquakes clustered in the same area to constrain the initial P polarities. Thus the focal mechanisms can be determined reasonably well. We inverted focal mechanisms for a small set of events beneath Qeshm Island in southern Iran and demonstrate the importance of radiation pattern at short periods.  相似文献   

18.
Recently the equilibrium property of ergodicity was identified in an earthquake fault system (Tiampo et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 238501, 2003; Phys. Rev. E 75, 066107, 2007). Ergodicity in this context not only requires that the system is stationary for these networks at the applicable spatial and temporal scales, but also implies that they are in a state of metastable equilibrium, one in which the ensemble averages can be substituted for temporal averages when studying their behavior in space and time. In this work we show that this property can be used to identify those regions of parameter space which are stationary when applied to the seismicity of two naturally-occurring earthquake fault networks. We apply this measure to one particular seismicity-based forecasting tool, the Pattern Informatics index (Tiampo et al., Europhys. Lett. 60, 481–487, 2002; Rundle et al., Proc. National Acad. Sci., U.S.A., Suppl. 1, 99, 2463, 2002), in order to test the hypothesis that the identification of ergodic regions can be used to improve and optimize forecasts that rely on historic seismicity catalogs. We also apply the same measure to synthetic catalogs in order to better understand the physical process that affects this accuracy. We show that, in particular, ergodic regions defined by magnitude and time period provide more reliable forecasts of future events in both natural and synthetic catalogs, and that these improvements can be directly related to specific features or properties of the catalogs that impact the behavior of their spatial and temporal statistics.  相似文献   

19.
In this paper, we study a population balance equation (PBE) where flocs are distributed into classes according to their mass. Each class i contains i primary particles with mass m p and size L p. All differently sized flocs can aggregate, binary breakup into two equally sized flocs is used, and the floc??s fractal dimension is d 0?=?2, independently of their size. The collision efficiency is kept constant, and the collision frequency derived by Saffman and Turner (J Fluid Mech 1:16?C30, 1956) is used. For the breakup rate, the formulation by Winterwerp (J Hydraul Eng Res 36(3):309?C326, 1998), which accounts for the porosity of flocs, is used. We show that the mean floc size computed with the PBE varies with the shear rate as the Kolmogorov microscale, as observed both in laboratory and in situ. Moreover, the equilibrium mean floc size varies linearly with a global parameter P which is proportional to the ratio between the rates of aggregation and breakup. The ratio between the parameters of aggregation and breakup can therefore be estimated analytically from the observed equilibrium floc size. The parameter for aggregation can be calibrated from the temporal evolution of the mean floc size. We calibrate the PBE model using mixing jar flocculation experiments, see Mietta et al. (J Colloid Interface Sci 336(1):134?C141, 2009a, Ocean Dyn 59:751?C763, 2009b) for details. We show that this model can reproduce the experimental data fairly accurately. The collision efficiency ?? and the ratio between parameters for aggregation and breakup ?? and E are shown to decrease linearly with increasing absolute value of the ??-potential, both for mud and kaolinite suspensions. Suspensions at high pH and different dissolved salt type and concentration have been used. We show that the temporal evolution of the floc size distribution computed with this PBE is very similar to that computed with the PBE developed by Verney et al. (Cont Shelf Res, 2010) where classes are distributed following a geometrical series and mass conservation is statistically ensured. The same terms for aggregation and breakup are used in the two PBEs. Moreover, we argue, using both PBEs, that bimodal distributions become monomodal in a closed system with homogeneous sediment, even when a variable shear rate is applied.  相似文献   

20.
This paper describes the observations made by a reconnaissance team following the 22nd February 2011, Mw 6.3, Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake (GNS Science, 2011). The team comprised of members of the UK based Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team who spent 5 days collecting observations on damage resulting from the earthquake. Although the magnitude of this earthquake was not particularly high (Mw 6.3), the shallow focus and close proximity resulted in locally very high ground motions, widespread damage and 182 fatalities. The earthquake is also particularly notable for the widespread liquefaction it caused, landslides and rockfalls in the hills south of Christchurch, and the significant damage suffered by unreinforced masonry and historic structures. Over wide areas of central Christchurch, recorded accelerations were in excess of those required by the current New Zealand seismic loadings standard (NZS1170.5:2004: Standards New Zealand 2004) and therefore the earthquake presented a valuable opportunity to assess performance of modern buildings under code-level ground acceleration.  相似文献   

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