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1.
The El Niño Southern Oscillation plays a key role in modulating interannual rainfall variability in Mexico. While El Niño events are linked to drought in Mexico, uncertainty exists about the spatial pattern and causal mechanisms behind El Niño-induced drought. We use lead/lag correlation analysis of rainfall station data to identify the spatial pattern of drought associated with the summer before, and the spring following, the peak of warm SST anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific. We also use atmospheric fields from the North American Regional Reanalysis to calculate the anomalous moisture budget and diagnose the mechanisms associated with El Niño-induced drought in Mexico. We find that reduced rainfall occurs in Mexico in both the summer before and the spring after a peak El Niño event, especially in regions of climatologically strong convection. The teleconnection in the developing phase of El Niño is primarily driven by changes in subsidence resulting from anomalous convection in the equatorial Pacific. The causes of drought during the decaying phase of El Niño events are varied: in some years, descent anomalies dominate other moisture budget terms, while in other years, drying of the boundary layer on the Mexican plateau is important. We suggest that the latter may result from the interaction of weakened southeasterly winds in the Intra-Americas Sea with high topography along the Atlantic coast of Mexico. Weakened winds are likely driven by a reduced sea level pressure gradient between the Atlantic and the Pacific. Changes in easterly wave activity may contribute to drought in the developing phase of El Niño, but may be less important in the decaying phase of El Niño.  相似文献   

2.
At times when attention on climate issues is strongly focused on the assessment of potential impacts of future climate change due to the intensification of the planetary greenhouse effect, it is perhaps pertinent to look back and explore the consequences of past climate variability. In this article we examine a large disruption in global climate that occurred during 1877–1878, when human influence was negligible. The mechanisms explaining this global disturbance are not well established, but there is considerable evidence that the major El Niño episode that started by the end of 1876 and peaked during the 1877–1878 boreal winter contributed significantly to it. The associated regional climate anomalies were extremely destructive, particularly in the Northern Hemisphere, where starvation due to intense droughts in Asia, South-East Asia and Africa took the lives of more than 20 million people. In South America regional precipitation anomalies were typical of El Niño events, with rainfall deficit and droughts in the northern portion of the continent as well as in northeast Brazil and the highlands of the central Andes (Altiplano). In contrast, anomalously intense rainfall and flooding episodes were reported for the coastal areas of southern Ecuador and Northern Perú, as well as along the extratropical West coast of the continent (central Chile, 30° S–40° S), and in the Paraná basin in the southeast region. By far the most devastating impacts in terms of suffering and loss of life occurred in the semiarid region of northeast Brazil where several hundreds of thousands of people died from starvation and diseases during the drought that started in 1877.  相似文献   

3.
Drought patterns across monsoon and temperate Asia over the period 1877–2005 are linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Using the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) composed of a high-resolution network of hydroclimatically sensitive tree-ring records with a focus on the June–August months, spatial drought patterns during El Niño and IOD events are assessed as to their agreement with an instrumental drought index and consistency in the drought response amongst ENSO/IOD events. Spatial characteristics in drought patterns are related to regional climate anomalies over the Indo-Pacific basin, using reanalysis products, including changes in the Asian monsoon systems, zonal Walker circulation, moisture fluxes, and precipitation. A weakening of the monsoon circulation over the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia during El Niño events, along with anomalous subsidence over monsoon Asia and reduced moisture flux, is reflected in anomalous drought conditions over India, Southeast Asia and Indonesia. When an IOD event co-occurs with an El Niño, severe drought conditions identified in the MADA for Southeast Asia, Indonesia, eastern China and central Asia are associated with a weakened South Asian monsoon, reduced moisture flux over China, and anomalous divergent flow and subsidence over Indonesia. Insights into the relative influences of Pacific and Indian Ocean variability for Asian monsoon climate on interannual to decadal and longer timescales, as recorded in the MADA, provide a useful tool for assessing long-term changes in the characteristics of Asian monsoon droughts in the context of Indo-Pacific climate variability.  相似文献   

4.
Terrestrial vegetation dynamics and global climate controls   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  
Monthly data from the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) and its predecessor satellite sensors was used to reconstruct vegetation dynamics in response to climate patterns over the period 1983–2005. Results suggest that plant growth over extensive land areas of southern Africa and Central Asia were the most closely coupled of any major land area to El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) effects on regional climate. Others land areas strongly tied to recent ENSO climate effects were in northern Canada, Alaska, western US, northern Mexico, northern Argentina, and Australia. Localized variations in precipitation were the most common controllers of monthly values for the fraction absorbed of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) over these regions. In addition to the areas cited above, seasonal FPAR values from MODIS were closely coupled to rainfall patterns in grassland and cropland areas of the northern and central US. Historical associations between global vegetation FPAR and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) anomalies suggest that the terrestrial biosphere can contribute major fluxes of CO2 during major drought events, such as those triggered by 1997–1998 El Niño event.  相似文献   

5.
Hunt  B.  Elliott  T. 《Climate Dynamics》2002,20(1):1-12
Around 1550 AD a megadrought occurred in Mexico, possibly resulting in the death of over 80% of the Indian population at that time from disease. By any measure this was a major disaster that warrants serious examination. A 10,000-year simulation with the CSIRO Mark2 coupled global climatic model has been used to investigate the existence and genesis of major droughts in the Mexican region. One megadrought event was identified and a number of droughts lasting a decade or longer were also found. Average reductions in rainfall of 20 to 40% over the duration of these droughts were found to occur. While there is a mechanistic link between El Niño events and drought over Mexico, this link is tenuous, as shown by observations and this simulation. Stochastic processes appear to have a considerable influence on Mexican rainfall, and contribute to the weakness of the El Niño influence on such rainfall. It is shown that for both El Niño events and stochastic processes drought is created over Mexico by the reduction of the intensity of the climatological high pressure system in this region. This reduces the influx of moisture associated with the monsoonal system and thus rainfall. While only one 'megadrought' was found in the 10,000-year simulation thirteen droughts lasting over a decade occurred, suggesting that a devastating drought in the Mexican region has a return period of less than 1000 years and represents a non-trivial potential problem for this region.  相似文献   

6.
The impacts and cooperative effects of volcanic eruptions and ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation) are analyzed in a millennium simulation for 800–2005 AD using the earth system model (ESM) ECHAM5/MPIOM/JSBACH subject to anthropogenic and natural forcings. The simulation comprises two ensembles, a first with weak (E1, five members) and a second with strong (E2, three members) variability total solar irradiance. In the analysis, the 21 most intense eruptions are selected in each ensemble member. Volcanoes with neutral ENSO states during two preceding winters cause a global cooling in the year after eruptions up to ?2.5°C. The nonsignificant positive values in the tropical Pacific Ocean indicate an El Niño-like warming. In the winter after an eruption, warming is mainly found in the Arctic Ocean and the Bering Sea in E2 warming extends to Siberia and central Asia. The recovery times for the volcano-induced cooling (average for 31 eruptions) vary globally between 1 and 12 years. There is no significant increase of El Niño events after volcanic eruptions in both ensembles. The simulated temperature and the drought indices are compared with corresponding reconstructions in East Asia. Volcanoes cause a dramatic cooling in west China (?2°C) and a drought in East China during the year after the eruption. The reconstructions show similar cooling patterns with smaller magnitudes and confirm the dryness in East China. Without volcanoes, El Niño events reduce summer precipitation in the North, while South China becomes wetter; La Niña events cause opposite effects. El Niño events in the winters after eruptions compensate the cooling caused by volcanoes in most regions of China (consistent with reconstructions), while La Niña events intensify the cooling (up to ?2.5°C). The simulated and reconstructed drought indices show tripole patterns which are altered by El Niño events. The simulated impact of the Tambora eruption in 1815, which caused the “year without summer” of 1816 in Europe and North America and led to coldness and famines in the Chinese province Yunnan, depends crucially on the ENSO state of the coupled model. A comparison with reconstructed El Niño events shows a moderate cool climate with wet (in the south) and extreme dry anomalies (in the north) persisting for several years.  相似文献   

7.
Thirty years of daily rainfall data are analysed for the South Coast region of South Africa, a region which experiences substantial rainfall variability and frequent severe drought and flood events, but whose climate variability has not been much researched. It is found that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts an influence since most wet years correspond to mature phase La Niña years. ENSO also influences South Coast rainfall via increases in the number of cut-off lows in southern South Africa during mature phase La Niña years. A statistically significant correlation between the Niño 3.4 index and monthly rainfall totals, and between this index and the frequency of wet days, exists for two summer months and also for June. There are also changes in the heavy rainfall day frequencies from one decade to another. Examination of NCEP re-analyses indicates that wet (dry) years result from an equatorward (poleward) shift in the subtropical jet, cyclonic (anticyclonic) pressure anomalies over the South Atlantic and South Africa, and increased (decreased) density of mid-latitude cyclonic systems.  相似文献   

8.
Xin Wang  Chunzai Wang 《Climate Dynamics》2014,42(3-4):991-1005
Our early work (Wang and Wang in J Clim 26:1322–1338, 2013) separates El Niño Modoki events into El Niño Modoki I and II because they show different impacts on rainfall in southern China and typhoon landfall activity. The warm SST anomalies originate in the equatorial central Pacific and subtropical northeastern Pacific for El Niño Modoki I and II, respectively. El Niño Modoki I features a symmetric SST anomaly distribution about the equator with the maximum warming in the equatorial central Pacific, whereas El Niño Modoki II shows an asymmetric distribution with the warm SST anomalies extending from the northeastern Pacific to the equatorial central Pacific. The present paper investigates the influence of the various groups of El Niño events on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Similar to canonical El Niño, El Niño Modoki I is associated with a weakening of the Walker circulation in the Indo-Pacific region which decreases precipitation in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean and maritime continent and thus results in the surface easterly wind anomalies off Java-Sumatra. Under the Bjerknes feedback, the easterly wind anomalies induce cold SST anomalies off Java- Sumatra, and thus a positive IOD tends to occur in the Indian Ocean during canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki I. However, El Niño Modoki II has an opposite impact on the Walker circulation, resulting in more precipitation and surface westerly wind anomalies off Java-Sumatra. Thus, El Niño Modoki II is favorable for the onset and development of a negative IOD on the frame of the Bjerknes feedback.  相似文献   

9.
The meteorological characteristics of the drought of 2005 in Amazonia, one of the most severe in the last 100 years were assessed using a suite of seven regional models obtained from the CLARIS LPB project. The models were forced with the ERA-Interim reanalyses as boundary conditions. We used a combination of rainfall and temperature observations and the low-level circulation and evaporation fields from the reanalyses to determine the climatic and meteorological characteristics of this particular drought. The models reproduce in some degree the observed annual cycle of precipitation and the geographical distribution of negative rainfall anomalies during the summer months of 2005. With respect to the evolution of rainfall during 2004–2006, some of the models were able to simulate the negative rainfall departures during early summer of 2005 (December 2004 to February 2005). The interannual variability of rainfall anomalies for both austral summer and fall over northern and southern Amazonia show a large spread among models, with some of them capable of reproducing the 2005 observed negative rainfall departures (four out of seven models in southern Amazonia during DJF). In comparison, all models simulated the observed southern Amazonia negative rainfall and positive air temperature anomalies during the El Nino-related drought in 1998. The spatial structure of the simulated rainfall and temperature anomalies in DJF and MAM 2005 shows biases that are different among models. While some models simulated the observed negative rainfall anomalies over parts of western and southern Amazonia during DJF, others simulated positive rainfall departures over central Amazonia. The simulated circulation patterns indicate a weaker northeasterly flow from the tropical North Atlantic into Amazonia, and reduced flows from southern Amazonia into the La Plata basin in DJF, which is consistent with observations. In general, we can say that in some degree the regional models are able to capture the response to the forcing from the tropical Atlantic during the drought of 2005 in Amazonia. Moreover, extreme climatic conditions in response to anomalous low-level circulation features are also well captured, since the boundary conditions come from reanalysis and the models are largely constrained by the information provided at the boundaries. The analysis of the 2005 drought suggests that when the forcing leading to extreme anomalous conditions is associated with both local and non-local mechanisms (soil moisture feedbacks and remote SST anomalies, respectively) the models are not fully capable of representing these feedbacks and hence, the associated anomalies. The reason may be a deficient reproduction of the land–atmosphere interactions.  相似文献   

10.
The present study reveals cross-season connections of rainfall variability in the South China Sea (SCS) region between winter and summer. Rainfall anomalies over northern South China Sea in boreal summer tend to be preceded by the same sign rainfall anomalies over southern South China Sea in boreal winter (denoted as in-phase relation) and succeeded by opposite sign rainfall anomalies over southern South China Sea in the following winter (denoted as out-of-phase relation). Analysis shows that the in-phase relation from winter to summer occurs more often in El Niño/La Niña decaying years and the out-of-phase relation from summer to winter appears more frequently in El Niño/La Niña developing years. In the summer during the El Niño/La Niña decaying years, cold/warm and warm/cold sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies develop in tropical central North Pacific and the North Indian Ocean, respectively, forming an east–west contrast pattern. The in-phase relation is associated with the influence of anomalous heating/cooling over the equatorial central Pacific during the mature phase of El Niño/La Niña events that suppresses/enhances precipitation over southern South China Sea and the impact of the above east–west SST anomaly pattern that reduces/increases precipitation over northern South China Sea during the following summer. The impact of the east–west contrast SST anomaly pattern is confirmed by numerical experiments with specified SST anomalies. In the El Niño/La Niña developing years, regional air-sea interactions induce cold/warm SST anomalies in the equatorial western North Pacific. The out-of-phase relation is associated with a Rossby wave type response to anomalous heating/cooling over the equatorial central Pacific during summer and the combined effect of warm/cold SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific and cold/warm SST anomalies in the western North Pacific during the mature phase of El Niño/La Niña events.  相似文献   

11.
Being triggered by different physical processes, the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP) El Niño events have several different teleconnection features around the globe. Using the ERA-Interim re-analysis monthly data during the period 1980–2016, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections on the global scale and their statistical significance are investigated, with an emphasis on the contrasting features of the EP and CP El Niño events. With some exceptions, the EP El Niño and La Niña have generally similar teleconnection patterns with the reversed sign, while in some parts of the globe different and occasionally contrasting teleconnections of the EP and CP El Niño events are identified. Compared to the CP El Niño, more regions of the world are influenced by the statistically significant positive surface pressure anomalies during the EP El Niño, particularly over the Indian Ocean, tropical Atlantic and Northern Africa. It is found that the mid-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies across the globe are significantly different during the EP and CP El Niño events. Associated with different surface pressure and mid-tropospheric geopotential height anomalies, precipitation anomalies in many regions of the world are found different during the EP and CP El Niño events, particularly over the tropical Pacific, central to eastern equatorial Atlantic and the eastern Sahara. While central and eastern equatorial Atlantic experience statistically significant negative (positive) rainfall anomalies during the EP El Niño (La Niña), the CP El Niño does not have a strong influence on the amount of annual rainfall over the equatorial Atlantic. For the first time, statistically significant anomalously dry conditions are found over some parts of the Middle East and Southwest Asia during La Niña, and over the eastern Sahara during the EP El Niño.  相似文献   

12.
This study focuses on a framework of methodologies used for analyzing the frequency and spatiotemporal characteristics of agricultural droughts in Zimbabwe from a vulnerability context. By employing an empirical orthogonal analysis method, the study revealed that relatively strong spatial and temporal station drought relationships prevail, making the drought spatiotemporal characteristics of the country to be considered highly homogeneous. Thus, agricultural droughts were characterized temporarily using the Standardized Precipitation Index derived from rainfall data for the longer but sparse data period from 1901 to 2004. At the same time, higher spatial density analysis was achieved from shorter but denser database for the period 1941 to 1999. The results indicated that drought is a natural climatic feature of the region and occurs from time to time in defined periods. However, severe and extreme droughts tend to concentrate near the end of the time series, suggesting that during the earlier period of the twentieth century, droughts have been smaller or less pervasive. The extreme droughts appear to inherit the coincidence of both very high values of spatial extent and intensity in a single event. This offers a possible explanation to why extreme droughts in Zimbabwe usually have dire consequences on agriculture and the national economy. By showing that the related national drought impacts on staple maize food production can be estimated, this study has demonstrated that it is possible to anticipate future drought hazard impacts and predict periods of food insecurity. As far as the forecasting of agricultural droughts is concerned, the recently discovered Indian Ocean dipole/zonal mode seems to perform better than the traditional El Niño–Southern Oscillation as a potential drought predictor during the twentieth century.  相似文献   

13.
Possible influences of three coupled ocean–atmosphere phenomena in the Indo-Pacific Oceans, El Niño, El Niño Modoki and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), on summer climate in China are studied based on data analysis for the summers of 1951–2007. Partial correlation/regression analysis is used to find the influence paths through the related anomalous mid- and low-level tropospheric circulations over the oceanic region and East Eurasia, including the western North Pacific summer monsoon (WNPSM). Among the three phenomena, El Niño Modoki has the strongest relationship with the WNPSM. When two or three phenomena coexist with either positive or negative phase, the influences exerted by one phenomenon on summer climate in different regions of China may be enhanced or weakened by other phenomena. In 1994 when both El Niño Modoki and IOD are prominent without El Niño, a strong WNPSM is associated with severe flooding in southern China and severe drought in the Yangtze River Valley (YRV). The 500 hPa high systems over China are responsible for heat waves in most parts of China. In 1983 when a strong negative phase of El Niño Modoki is accompanied by moderate El Niño and IOD, a weak WNPSM is associated with severe flooding in the YRV and severe drought in southern China. The 500 hPa low systems over China are responsible for the cold summer in the YRV and northeastern China. For rainfall, the influence path seems largely through the low-level tropospheric circulations including the WNPSM. For temperature, the influence path seems largely through the mid-level tropospheric circulations over East Eurasia/western North Pacific Ocean.  相似文献   

14.
Present work compares impacts of El Niño Modoki and El Niño on anomalous climate in the Pacific rim during boreal winters of 1979–2005. El Niño Modoki (El Niño) is associated with tripole (dipole) patterns in anomalies of sea-surface temperature, precipitation, and upper-level divergent wind in the tropical Pacific, which are related to multiple “boomerangs” of ocean-atmosphere conditions in the Pacific. Zonal and meridional extents of those “boomerangs” reflect their independent influences, which are seen from lower latitudes in the west to higher latitudes in the east. In the central Pacific, more moisture is transported from the tropics to higher latitudes during El Niño Modoki owing to displacement of the wet “boomerang” arms more poleward toward east. Discontinuities at outer “boomerang” arms manifest intense interactions between tropical and subtropical/extratropical systems. The Pacific/North American pattern and related climate anomalies in North America found in earlier studies are modified in very different ways by the two phenomena. The seesaw with the dry north and the wet south in the western USA is more likely to occur during El Niño Modoki, while much of the western USA is wet during El Niño. The moisture to the southwestern USA is transported from the northward shifted ITCZ during El Niño Modoki, while it is carried by the storms traveling along the southerly shifted polar front jet during El Niño. The East Asian winter monsoon related anticyclone is over the South China Sea during El Niño Modoki as compared to its position over the Philippine Sea during El Niño, causing opposite precipitation anomalies in the southern East Asia between the two phenomena.  相似文献   

15.
The drought conditions over the seven sub-climatological regions in Vietnam are examined using three meteorological drought indices: de Martonne J, PED, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). According to the seasonal probabilities of drought occurrence estimated by the de Martonne index, droughts mainly occur between November and March in all the sub-regions. The PED index and the SPI index generally show high probabilities of drought occurrence from April to August and from May to October, respectively. In the southern sub-regions of Vietnam, droughts more frequently occur in El Niño years and wet conditions are more frequently observed in La Niña years. However, such El Niño–Southern Oscillation influences are not clearly observed in the northern sub-regions. During 1961–2007, droughts significantly increased in the northern part of Vietnam. In the southern regions, PED shows increasing drought conditions while J and SPI show decreasing drought trends for almost all the stations.  相似文献   

16.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events significantly affect the year-by-year variations of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM). However, the effect of La Niña events on the EAWM is not a mirror image of that of El Niño events. Although the EAWM becomes generally weaker during El Niño events and stronger during La Niña winters, the enhanced precipitation over the southeastern China and warmer surface air temperature along the East Asian coastline during El Niño years are more significant. These asymmetric effects are caused by the asymmetric longitudinal positions of the western North Pacific (WNP) anticyclone during El Niño events and the WNP cyclone during La Niña events; specifically, the center of the WNP cyclone during La Niña events is westward-shifted relative to its El Niño counterpart. This central-position shift results from the longitudinal shift of remote El Niño and La Niña anomalous heating, and asymmetry in the amplitude of local sea surface temperature anomalies over the WNP. However, such asymmetric effects of ENSO on the EAWM are barely reproduced by the atmospheric models of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), although the spatial patterns of anomalous circulations are reasonably reproduced. The major limitation of the CMIP5 models is an overestimation of the anomalous WNP anticyclone/cyclone, which leads to stronger EAWM rainfall responses. The overestimated latent heat flux anomalies near the South China Sea and the northern WNP might be a key factor behind the overestimated anomalous circulations.  相似文献   

17.
The present study investigates the relationship between extreme north-east (NE) monsoon rainfall (NEMR) over the Indian peninsula region and El Niño forcing. This turns out to be a critical science issue especially after the 2015 Chennai flood. The puzzle being while most El Niños favour good NE monsoon, some don’t. In fact some El Niño years witnessed deficit NE monsoon. Therefore two different cases (or classes) of El Niños are considered for analysis based on standardized NEMR index and Niño 3.4 index with case-1 being both Niño-3.4 and NEMR indices greater than +1 and case-2 being Niño-3.4 index greater than +1 and NEMR index less than −1. Composite analysis suggests that SST anomalies in the central and eastern Pacific are strong in both cases but large differences are noted in the spatial distribution of SST over the Indo-western Pacific region. This questions our understanding of NEMR as mirror image of El Niño conditions in the Pacific. It is noted that the favourable excess NEMR in case-1 is due to anomalous moisture transport from Bay of Bengal and equatorial Indian Ocean to southern peninsular India. Strong SST gradient between warm western Indian Ocean (and Bay of Bengal) and cool western Pacific induced strong easterly wind anomalies during NE monsoon season favour moisture transport towards the core NE monsoon region. Further anomalous moisture convergence and convection over the core NE monsoon region supported positive rainfall anomalies in case-1. While in case-2, weak SST gradients over the Indo-western Pacific and absence of local low level convergence over NE monsoon region are mainly responsible for deficit rainfall. The ocean dynamics in the Indian Ocean displayed large differences during case-1 and case-2, suggesting the key role of Rossby wave dynamics in the Indian Ocean on NE monsoon extremes. Apart from the large scale circulation differences the number of cyclonic systems land fall for case-1 and case-2 have also contributed for variations in NE monsoon rainfall extremes during El Niño years. This study indicates that despite having strong warming in the central and eastern Pacific, NE monsoon rainfall variations over the southern peninsular India is mostly determined by SST gradient over the Indo-western Pacific region and number of systems formation in the Bay of Bengal and their land fall. The paper concludes that though the favourable large scale circulation induced by Pacific is important in modulating the NE monsoon rainfall the local air sea interaction plays a key role in modulating or driving rainfall extremes associated with El Niño.  相似文献   

18.
By comparing correlation of sea surface temperature (SST) and vertical circulation with canonical El Niño and El Niño Modoki, we find that El Niño Modoki has an effect on the Indian Ocean different from traditional El Niño. There exists obvious Indian Ocean basin mode (IOBM) after canonical El Niño, while insignificant SST anomalies exist in the Indian Ocean after El Niño Modoki. Anomalous downdraft and updraft appear over the eastern and western Indian Ocean, respectively, during canonical El Niño, while anomalous updraft is weak over the Indian Ocean during El Niño Modoki. Besides, the strength of El Niño Modoki is slightly weaker than that of canonical El Niño. According to previous studies, two mechanisms can explain IOBM after canonical El Niño: tropospheric temperature (TT) mechanism and ocean dynamics. However, both of them do not exist during El Niño Modoki. Comparing with the complicated oceanic processes, it is convenient to verify the observed TT anomalies and test the possible mechanism using the simple model. Therefore, we pay more attention on the question why TT mechanism does not work during El Niño Modoki. Using a linear barocinic model (LBM), we demonstrate that the strength of SST anomalies and cold SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific have an influence on TT anomalies. Especially, cold SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific cancel the effects of warm SST anomalies in the central Pacific on TT anomalies. It suggests that the SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific are important for the TT mechanism in two types of El Niño.  相似文献   

19.
In the summers of 1998 and 2010, severe floods occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. Although an El Niño event took place preceding each of the summer floods, significant differences between the two summer floods and the two El Niño events were identified. The 1997/98 El Niño is a conventional one with strongest warming in the central-eastern Pacific, whereas the 2009/10 event is an El Niño Modoki with strongest warming in the central Pacific. In this study, summer rainfall anomalies (SRA) in the two years were first compared based on the rainfall data at 160 stations in mainland China, and a significant difference in SRA was found. To understand the underlying mechanism for the difference, the atmospheric circulation systems, particularly the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC), the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), and the low-level air flows, were compared in the two years by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results display that the WNPAC was stronger in 2010 than in 1998, along with a northwestward shift, causing weakened southwesterly from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea but intensified southerly in eastern China. This resulted in less water vapor transport from the tropical Indian Ocean and the South China Sea but more from the subtropical western Pacific to East Asia. Subsequently, the rainband in 2010 shifted northward. The difference in the WNPAC was caused by the anomalous ascending motion associated with the warming location in the two El Niño events. Furthermore, the role of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) in modulating these differences was investigated by conducting sensitivity experiments using GFDL AM2.1 (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Atmospheric Model). Two experiments were performed, one with the observed monthly SST and the other with June SST persisting through the whole summer. The results suggest that the model well reproduced the primary differences in the atmospheric circulation systems in the two years. It is found that the difference in El Niño events has shaped the rainfall patterns in the two years of 1998 and 2010. At last, the case of 2010 was compared with the composite of historical El Niño Modoki events, and the results indicate that the impact of El Niño Modoki varies from case to case and is more complicated than previously revealed.  相似文献   

20.
Analysis of meteorological drought episodes in Paraguay   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  
This paper analyzes the meteorological drought events in Paraguay in the period of 1964 to 2011, using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The objective is to determine if the frequency and/or severity of droughts has increased or decreased in the last years, in response of climate change. They The southernmost parts of the country are affected by severe droughts producing damage to soybean and corn crop during the rainy season (October–March) especially during the summer of 2008–2009. The years of 1967, 1968, 1978, 1979, 2000 and 2008 was identified as severe to extreme drought events and coincides with La Niña event. However, the relationship between all drought events, especially those agricultural droughts and La Niña is not clear, suggesting the necessity of new research, focusing on new drivers to explain the cause of the droughts. The economy of Paraguay, based for good part on agriculture, is clearly vulnerable to droughts. Even though no undeniable increasing trend in drought frequency/severity was detected, contingency plans to diminish drought impacts ought to be elaborated.  相似文献   

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