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1.
将商业保险引入建筑物防震减灾是减少地震损失的一种有效经济手段。对建筑物地震保险进行讨论,对地震保险的形式、承保—理赔机制、保险基金等主要问题作了详细的阐述,建议将年震害期望损失比作为纯费率厘定的主要原则,同时以未来一段时间内的最大期望损失率估算地震保险基金的规模。  相似文献   

2.
地震保险费率厘定和保险理赔设计的研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
以乌鲁木齐地区地震危险性分析和地震灾害预测为基础,应用工程学和地震学方法厘定地震保险的期望年损失率净费率。提出地震保险烈度作为理赔标度的观点,探讨了理赔模式的设计。  相似文献   

3.
地震保险中经济损失和赔付问题的研究   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
刘如山  王自法  朱敏 《地震学报》2006,28(2):197-205
简单介绍了国内外地震保险业的发展和现状,以及基于地震危险性分析和结构易损性分析的经济损失评估方法;着重探讨了给定赔付政策下单体房屋结构震害损失赔付的概率密度函数,和保险业关心的多个单体集合赔付的整体方差问题;引入了美国使用的单体结构间损失的相关系数,并据此解释了地震保险中风险的高聚合性质. 为我国地震保险业中的赔付和费率厘定提供依据,为地震保险工作的实际运作和展开提供参考.   相似文献   

4.
建筑物地震损失风险与保险费用的确定方法   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5  
本文结合我国地震危险性和建筑物抗震设防标准提出了地震损失风险评估概率模型,并给出了建筑物地震保险金额和保险费率的计算方法。用该方法可以计算各类建筑物的保险费用,计算结果与国际地震保险业的经验数据较一致。同时,本文还利用GIS技术展示了与保险金额和保险费率的空间分布状态相关的属性数据,为保险当事人提供了实施地震保险的科学依据。  相似文献   

5.
2006年7月4日河北省文安5.1级地震震害分析   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
本项研究在GIS技术的支持下,从地震灾害成灾机理出发,建立了地震保险纯保费的计算方法,开发研制了用于建筑物财产保险地震灾害损失评估的计算机信息系统。应用此信息系统,计算比较了不同地区建筑地震损失期望的差异,分析了不同免赔额和限额的设定对保险公司赔付的影响。  相似文献   

6.
以地震危险性分析为基础,结合因地震造成的各类建筑物的破坏情况,对在我国如何实行地震保险的方法和途径进行了探讨。  相似文献   

7.
地震保险净费率之厘订的工程学方法研究   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
在简要探讨了国家赈济地震灾害的模式、保险业的营运特征以及工程项目抗震防抗的基本着眼点之后,本文认为开展法定的地震保险业务应具有巨大的宏观与微观社会经济效益,以地震危险性分析和震害预测技术业已取得的成就为基础,本文提出了一个地震保险净费率之厘订的工程学方法,它不仅可以为将来可能产生的地震咻险业务服务,而且也可以用来透视在目前企业与家庭财产“一揽子”保险体制下,保险公司已承担地震责任,我们希望此法具有  相似文献   

8.
地震巨灾风险的特点是低频高损,历史震害数据缺乏、风险暴露快速变迁等因素导致基于大数定理的费率厘定方法无法针对各区域不同建筑类型的风险暴露进行精细化定价.本文基于"五代图"潜在震源区模型的随机事件集解决观测数据不足的问题;并使用"五代图"所采用的地震动参数衰减关系模型与工程易损性方法计算地震事件对风险暴露造成的损失,从而...  相似文献   

9.
2023年2月6日土耳其发生2次MS7.8地震,造成了严重的人员伤亡和经济损失,土耳其1999年建立的地震保险体系在本次地震中一定程度上达到了减轻地震灾害损失的目的。本文首先对土耳其地震保险制度体系进行介绍,并结合本次地震受灾地区建筑物震害数据和当地投保信息,深入分析了土耳其地震保险在分散地震风险中发挥的重要作用;最后针对我国地震保险现状及存在的问题提出建议。  相似文献   

10.
资本资产定价模型在工程地震保险费率厘定中的应用   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
作为国际金融市场的重要组成部分,保险市场在当下的全球经济复苏中发挥着重要作用。保险是地震灾害危机处理的一种重要方式。现有的工程地震保费厘定通常只着力于纯保费,对风险附加费的考量往往依经验,从而导致保费中无法体现对风险的补偿,成为工程地震险发展的瓶颈。本文通过将金融市场中的资本资产定价模型(CAPM)引入工程地震险的定价分析,从资本市场的角度探讨该模型在工程地震险定价中的应用,弥补了传统工程地震险保费厘定方法的固有缺陷,使得保费计算更为科学合理。最后,应用于一具体工程实例,验证了该模型的可行性和有效性。  相似文献   

11.
After destructive earthquakes, the assessment result of seismic intensity is an important decision-making basis for emergency rescue, recovery and reconstruction. This job requires higher timeliness by government and society. Because remote sensing technology is not affected by the terrible traffic conditions on the ground after the earthquake, large-scale seismic damage information in the earthquake area can be collected in a short time by the remote sensing image. The remote sensing technique plays a more and more important role in rapid acquisition of seismic damage information, emergency rescue decision-making, seismic intensity assessment and other work. On the basis of previous studies, this paper proposes a new method to assess seismic intensity by using remote sensing image, i.e. to interpret the building collapse rate of a residential quarter after an earthquake by high-resolution remote sensing images. If there already are detailed building data and building structure vulnerability matrix data of a residential area, we can calculate the building collapse rate under any intensity values in this residential area by using the theory of earthquake damage prediction. Assuming that the building collapse rate interpreted by remote sensing is equal to the building collapse rate predicted by using the existing data, it will be easy to calculate the actual seismic intensity of the residential area in this earthquake event. Based on this idea, according to the relevant standard specifications issued by China Earthquake Administration, this paper puts forward some functional models, such as the calculation model of building collapse rate based on remote sensing, the data matrix model of residential building structure, the prediction function matrix model of residential building collapse rate and the prediction model of residential building collapse rate. A formula for calculating seismic intensity by using remote sensing interpretation of collapse rate is also proposed. To test and verify the proposed method, this paper takes two neighboring blocks of Jiegu Town after the Yushu M7.1 earthquake in Qinghai Province as an example. The building structure matrix of the study block was constructed by using pre-earthquake 0.6m resolution satellite remote sensing image(QuickBird, acquired on November 6, 2004), post-earthquake 0.2m aerial remote sensing image(acquired by National Bureau of Surveying and Mapping, April 15, 2010) and some field investigation data. The building collapse rate in the two blocks was calculated by using the interpretation results of seismic damage from the Remote Sensing Technology Coordinating Group of China Seismological Bureau. The seismic damage matrix of building structures in Yushu area is constructed by using the abundant scientific data of the scientific investigation team of the project “Comprehensive Scientific Investigation of the Yushu M7.1 Earthquake in Qinghai Province” of China Seismological Bureau. On this basis, the collapse rate prediction function of different structures in Yushu area is constructed. According to the prediction function of collapse rate and the building structure matrix of the two blocks, the building collapse rate under different intensity values is predicted, and the curve of intensity-collapse rate function is drawn. By comparing the building collapse rate interpreted by remote sensing and the intensity-collapse rate function curve of this two blocks, the seismic intensity of both blocks are calculated to be the same value: Ⅸ degree, which is consistent with the results of the field scientific investigation of the earthquake. The validation shows that the method proposed in this paper can effectively avoid the influence caused by the difference of seismic performance of buildings and accurately evaluate seismic intensity when using remote sensing technique. The method has certain application value for earthquake emergency work.  相似文献   

12.
在充分考虑现有地震资料的不完备性和震级服从两端截去泊松分布的条件下,建立了用历史地震资料和现代地震资料及考古地震资料计算地震矩年变化率的方法。计算了西南地区几个地震带的地震矩年变化率,并与地质资料得到的结果进行了比较,结果表明该方法是切实可行的  相似文献   

13.
The relationship between the strain cumulative rate (i.e., the crustal strain rate, or CSR in short) and seismic activity is analyzed to develop a new method to determine risky regions for strong shocks within recent years by the recorded crustal strain field. Seismic activity, especially the recurrence period, is different in different areas. Ding Guoyu (1984) pointed out that, for different seismic regions, the difference in the recurrence period of strong earthquakes is mainly controlled by their difference in the rate of the tectonic movement, which is controlled by the seismogenic environment and the tectonic conditions. The method of determining the risky regions for strong shocks from the gradient of vertical strain rates observed in a geodetic survey is preliminarily tested with the earthquakes in recent years; the results show that this method is effective and useful for earthquake prediction. The relationship between CSR and seismicity in a specific region is studied with strain theories, obse  相似文献   

14.
对上海佘山地震台伸缩仪的数字记录资料进行去趋势以及地壳形变速率的分析表明:伸缩仪EW向在200l年5~7月存在破年变趋势异常,并且该测项的形变速率在2001年3~8月存在高于正常背景值的异常。结合GPS资料、应力场、地震活动性的情况分析后认为,佘山台的形变速率异常可反映上海及邻区应力场的部分信息,该信息对地震活动具有一定前兆意义。因此,应用形变数字化资料计算地壳形变速率,可作为对地层活动以及日常地震预测的一种分析方法。  相似文献   

15.
Historical seismicity is used in order to map spatial distribution of seismic moment released by past earthquakes and to compare strain rate deduced from seismicity to those measured by geodetic GPS survey. Spatial analyses are performed on the seismicity of northern boundary of Central Iranian Block which coincides with the Alborz Mountains. This belt has been responsible for several catastrophic earthquakes in the past. In this study, the records of historical and instrumental earthquakes in the Alborz Mountains are used to calculate and plot geographical distribution of seismic moment released in time. A two-dimensional distribution function is proposed and used here to spread seismic moment along causative tectonic features. Using accumulated seismic moment, average slip rates across active faults are estimated for 32 sub-zones along the Alborz Mountains and western Kopet Dag. Seismic moment released by historical and recent earthquakes on this belt accounts for slip rate of 3–5 mm/year which is in good agreement with the geodetic vectors recently deduced from GPS survey in this region. The study also reveals geographical variations of slip rates along some 900 km length of this zone based on seismic history. The results are compared against finding from similar study in this region. Portions of Central and Eastern Alborz show lower seismic strain rate which could imply aseismic motion or overdue earthquakes. Completeness of historical earthquake catalogue and its reliability with regard to earthquake magnitudes, locations, and rupturing systems are among many plausible factors controlling the credibility of such results. Therefore, any conclusions derived from these results remain as reliable as the data and assumptions used for the analyses.  相似文献   

16.
活断层定量资料在大震年发生率评定中的应用   总被引:3,自引:3,他引:0  
大震年发生率的评定在地震区划中是一项非常重要的工作。但由于大震复发行为的复杂性,目前尚未建立合理的大震复发模型。本文通过美国地震区划图的截断G—R关系模型和特征地震模型组成的混合模型,利用活断层地质定量资料(滑动速率、古地震等)评定了大震的年发生率。结合我国的地震构造环境特征和资料的精细程度,将以上方法加以修正,并选择典型断裂进行了计算,同时还把计算结果与我国第三代、第四代地震区划图进行了比较和分析。  相似文献   

17.
Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented,that is,the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then,we take central China as the study region,and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.  相似文献   

18.
In this paper, the method which can combine different seismic data with the different precision and completeness, even the palaeo-earthquake data, has been applied to estimate the yearly seismic moment rate in the seismic region. Based on this, the predictable model of regional time-magnitude has been used in North China and Southwest China. The normal correlation between the time interval of the events and the magnitude of the last strong earthquake shows that the model is suitable. The value of the parameter c is less than the average value of 0.33 that is obtained from the events occurred in the plate boundary in the world. It is explained that the correlativity between the recurrence interval of the earthquake and the magnitude of the last strong event is not obvious. It is shown that the continental earthquakes in China are different from that occurred in the plate boundary and the recurrence model for the continental events are different from the one for the plate boundary events. Finally the seismic risk analysis based on this model for North China and Southwest China is given in this paper.  相似文献   

19.
荣代潞  李亚荣 《地震研究》2012,35(2):157-162,295
使用单键群方法研究了2011年3月11日日本本州东北部海域9.0级地震前地震空间相关长度变化。结果表明,在本次地震发生前约两年,5级以上地震的空间相关长度开始出现明显增长,变化趋势可以用幂次率进行很好的拟合。用没有7级以上强震发生的时段内的地震目录,采用相同方法进行了计算,没有发现明显的幂次率增长现象,说明强震前5级以上地震的空间相关长度的幂次率增长是地震孕育过程中震源区的物理性质特征的表现之一。  相似文献   

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