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1.
Thunderstorms are of much importance in tropics, as this region is considered to have central role in the convective overturn of the atmosphere and play an important role in rainfall activity. It is well known that El Niño and La Niña are well associated with significant climate anomalies at many places around the globe. Therefore, an attempt is made in this study to analyze variability in thunderstorm days and rainfall activity over Indian region and its association with El Niño and La Niña using data of thunderstorm day’s for 64 stations well distributed all over India for the period 1981–2005 (25 years). It is seen that thunderstorm activity is higher and much variable during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon (JJAS) than the rest of the year. Positive correlation coefficients (CCs) are seen between thunderstorms and rainfall except for the month of June during which the onset of the southwest monsoon sets over the country. CCs during winter months are highly correlated. Composite anomalies in thunderstorms during El Niño and La Niña years suggest that ENSO conditions altered the patterns of thunderstorm activity over the country. Positive anomalies are seen during pre-monsoon (MAM) and southwest monsoon months (JAS) during La Niña years. Opposite features are seen in southwest monsoon during El Niño periods, but El Niño favors thunderstorm activity during pre-monsoon months. There is a clear contrast between the role of ENSO during southwest monsoon and post-monsoon on thunderstorm activity over the country. Time series of thunderstorms and precipitation show strong association with similarities in their year-to-year variation over the country. 相似文献
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We analyzed directed couplings between the variations in the global surface temperature and modes of the natural climatic variability: the El NiñoLa Niña (ENSO) quasi-periodical phenomena and the long-period Atlantic Mutidecadal Oscillation (AMO) based on the data for 1870–2014. According to the quantitative estimates based on the monthly and annual mean data, the initial data, and the 10-year mean remote data, the most pronounced impact of the ENSO on the global surface temperature and the AMO was found. A weaker bidirectional coupling between the global surface temperature and the AMO is also pronounced. The analysis using running windows revealed an alternating effect of the ENSO and AMO on the variations in the global surface temperature related to the AMO phases. 相似文献
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Hamza Varikoden Hilal Sulthan Ali Al-shukaili C. A. Babu A. A. Samah 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(8):520
The Sultanate of Oman is located in the south-eastern part of the Arabian Peninsula and covers the larger part of the southern coasts of the Arabian Peninsula in both arid and semi-arid environments except for the southern part which is swept by the monsoon affecting the Arabian Sea during the period from June to September. The summer rainfall over Oman shows year-to-year variability, and this is caused by oceanic and atmospheric influences. In the present study, we tried to explore the influence of El Niño on the rainfall over Oman using different data sets. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) technique employed to the zonal wind at 850 hPa for the 30-year period shows that the second and third modes of EOF are showing high variability over the Oman regions. The corresponding PCs were subjected to FFT analysis, and it showed a peak about 5–6 years. In addition to this, the zonal wind over the Oman regions is correlated with the global zonal wind and found a significant correlation (1 % significant level). It has already been proved that the wind and rainfall during summer monsoon is in phase. Moreover, the spectral analysis of rainfall at Masirah station and the Niño3.4 index show the similar mode of variability indicating a direct relationship. The correlation between rainfall and the Niño3.4 index is also showing a positive significant value, and therefore, it can be concluded that the El Niño in the Pacific favours rainfall over the Oman region. 相似文献
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Traditional undergraduate education in earth sciences does not emphasize data acquisition, analysis, or assessment. However, arrival of the information age dictates that earth sciences graduates be imbued with fundamental skills to organize, evaluate and process large data sets. Fortunately, the proliferation of remotely sensed data and its availability via the Internet provides many opportunities for earth science educators to meet these needs. Exercises to introduce students to data analysis have been designed utilizing data from the Tropical Atmosphere–Ocean (TAO) Array and the 1997–1998 El Niño episode in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The TAO Array is a grid of 69 buoys moored across the equatorial Pacific Ocean (8°N to 8°S and 95°W to 143°E) recording environmental data relevant to El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) processes. Data from the TAO Array is available in near-real-time (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/realtime.html) or as archived ASCII files (http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/toga-tao/data-delivery.html) providing daily (sometimes hourly) records of environmental parameters for each buoy in the grid. Student exercises in data analysis begin with downloading data from buoy locations, parsing the data into spreadsheets, and organizing data by environmental parameter into yearly and monthly data sets. Analyses of reconstructed data include calculations of long-term averages of environmental parameters, seasonal climatologies, monthly climatologies and calculation of long-term, seasonal, and monthly anomalies. Finally, monthly anomaly maps produced by students are loaded sequentially into GIF-animation software to create time-series images illustrating the progress and development of the 1997–1998 El Niño event.
相似文献6.
On the basis of model calculations, mutually fitted fields were obtained for the key hydrophysical properties in the vicinity of the hydrological sections executed in the Barents Sea during 1997–1998. Integrated analysis of these data allowed us to evaluate the variability of crucial hydrodynamic conditions: the decrease of supply of relatively warm and saline North Atlantic waters with compensatory inflow of Arctic waters; the decrease of total heat content and increase of thermal convection; the weakening of water dynamics in the system of general cyclone circulation; and the abnormally cold winter in 1997–1998 with the increase in the ice covering of the Barents Sea. With a high confidence probability, it was found that considerable deviations from the mean weather conditions took place in response to the El Niño global disturbance of the same period, with the maximum southern oscillation index (SOI) in January–March 1998. The El Niño signal in the baric field of the Arctic basin, noted even in November–December 1997 as a crest of increased pressure, reached its maximum development in April–June 1998 in the form of a well-pronounced atmospheric anticyclone. Recognizing the natural correlation of this phenomenon and the maximum SOI value, one may state that the Barents Sea responds to an El Niño event in about three months. This circumstance should be used as an important parameter for climate forecasting. 相似文献
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Maitane Olabarrieta Arnoldo Valle-Levinson Christopher J. Martinez Charitha Pattiaratchi Luming Shi 《Natural Hazards》2017,88(3):1325-1346
Analysis of 20-year time series of water levels in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico has revealed that meteotsunamis are ubiquitous in this region. On average, 1–3 meteotsunamis with wave heights >0.5 m occur each year in this area. The probability of meteotsunami occurrence is highest during March–April and June–August. Meteotsunamis in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico can be triggered by winter and summer extra-tropical storms and by tropical cyclones. In northwestern Florida most of the events are triggered by winter storms, while in west and southwest Florida they appear both in winter and summer. Atmospheric pressure and wind anomalies (periods <6 h) associated with the passage of squalls originated the majority of the observed meteotsunami events. The most intense meteotsunamigenic periods took place during El Niño periods (1997–1998, 2009–2010 and 2015–2016). Meteotsunamis were also active in 2005, a year characterized by exceptionally intense tropical cyclone activity. Meteotsunami incidence varied yearly and at periods between 2 and 5 years. Results from cross-wavelet analysis suggested that El Niño and meteotsunami activity are correlated at annual and longer-period bands. 相似文献
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The El Niño of 1997–1998 produced the most intenseimpact on the conterminous U.S.A., generating a seriesof powerful rain and wind storms off the coast ofCalifornia in early February 1998. The 1997–1998 ElNiño also produced severe flooding and extensive mudslides along the west coast of South America andprolonged drought conditions in northeast Brazil. Onthe other (west) side of the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño produced the worst drought in 50 years overIndonesia and helped spread the ongoing forest fireson the island of Borneo to well over one millionacres. In this paper, the smoke and pollution problem overMalaysia will be analyzed in the context of ongoingIndonesian forest fires and the severity of the 1997El Niño – a deadly combination which led to the mosthazardous smoke problem over Malaysia duringAugust–September 1997. The severity of the smokepollution is documented using media reports andavailable API (air pollution index) values overselected cities in Malaysia. The role of the El Niñoand its evolution in enhancing the smoke pollutionover Malaysia is further discussed and suitably documented.Some of the mitigation measures presently beingadopted in Malaysia to combat the smoke pollution arebriefly discussed. 相似文献
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Indigofera melanadenia and Tephrosia longipes plant species, collected from Cu–Ni mining area, were evaluated for accumulation of Cu and Ni. The total and bioavailable concentrations of Cu and Ni in the host soils were also determined. Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry was used for all metal determinations. The total and bioavailable concentrations of Cu in the soils were in the range 900–9000 μg/g and 200–2000 μg/g respectively. For Ni, the total and bioavailable concentrations were in the range 900–2000 μg/g and ∼ 40–100 μg/g respectively. The concentrations of Cu and Ni in the leaves of I. melanadenia were higher than in the roots with a range 80–130 μg/g in the leaves and 20–80 μg/g in the roots for Cu and a range of 150–200 μg/g in the leaves and 20–60 μg/g in the roots for Ni. Concentration of Cu in T. longipes was in the range of 37–240 μg/g and 150–200 μg/g in the leaves and roots respectively while the concentration of Ni was 80–140 μg/g in the leaves and 25–100 μg/g in the roots. Results indicate that both species have a potential for accumulating Cu and Ni. Translocation factor, a ratio of shoots to roots metal concentration, was used to evaluate the translocation properties of the plants from roots to shoots. Translocation factors of the plants were ≥ 1 suggesting efficient translocation of metals from roots to shoots. 相似文献
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Markus Reuter Andrea K. Kern Mathias Harzhauser Andreas Kroh Werner E. Piller 《Gondwana Research》2013,23(3):1172-1177
Precipitation over India is driven by the Indian monsoon. Although changes in this atmospheric circulation are caused by the differential seasonal diabatic heating of Asia and the Indo-Pacific Ocean, it is so far unknown how global warming influences the monsoon rainfalls regionally. Herein, we present a Miocene pollen flora as the first direct proxy for monsoon over southern India during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum. To identify climatic key parameters, such as mean annual temperature, warmest month temperature, coldest month temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean precipitation during the driest month, mean precipitation during the wettest month and mean precipitation during the warmest month the Coexistence Approach is applied. Irrespective of a ~ 3–4 °C higher global temperature during the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum, the results indicate a modern-like monsoonal precipitation pattern contrasting marine proxies which point to a strong decline of Indian monsoon in the Himalaya at this time. Therefore, the strength of monsoon rainfall in tropical India appears neither to be related to global warming nor to be linked with the atmospheric conditions over the Tibetan Plateau. For the future it implies that increased global warming does not necessarily entail changes in the South Indian monsoon rainfall. 相似文献
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With increasing threat to lives and properties, identifying and assessing disaster potentials has become necessary and prior for effective disaster preparation and rescue planning. This study first introduces practical methods currently used in Taipei City, Taiwan, to identify and assess heavy rainfall–induced potential risks on flood, debris flow, and landslide. The identified disaster potential information is further applied to a series of deterministic and probabilistic risk analyses using Shilin District of Taipei City as a case study. The deterministic risk analyses are conducted to evaluate the impact of various heavy rainfall intensities on the residents. The probabilistic risk analyses are performed to establish risk curves for the population affected by heavy rainfall–induced hazards. The risk curve represents the relationships between the affected population and the annual exceedance probability. This study found the annual exceedance probability is very sensitive to the assumed coefficients of variation of the affected population. It is recommended historical statistical data on the correlation between affected population and rainfall intensity should be recorded and compiled in order to assess the actual probability distribution function of the affected population. Risk analysis results are further applied to assess the community evacuation capacity in this district. Last, short-term and long-term mitigation strategies and recommendations are discussed. 相似文献
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Predicting rainfall-induced landslides hinges on the quality of the rainfall product. Satellite rainfall estimates or rainfall reanalyses aid in studying landslide occurrences especially in ungauged areas, or in the absence of ground-based rainfall radars. Quality of these rainfall estimates is critical; hence, they are commonly crosschecked with their ground-based counterparts. Beyond their temporal precision compared to ground-based observations, we investigate whether these rainfall estimates are adequate for hindcasting landslides, which particularly requires accurate representation of spatial variability of rainfall. We developed a logistic regression model to hindcast rainfall-induced landslides in two sites in Japan. The model contains only a few topographic and geologic predictors to leave room for different rainfall products to improve the model as additional predictors. By changing the input rainfall product, we compared GPM IMERG and ERA5 rainfall estimates with ground radar–based rainfall data. Our findings emphasize that there is a lot of room for improvement of spatiotemporal prediction of landslides, as shown by a strong performance increase of the models with the benchmark radar data attaining 95% diagnostic performance accuracy. Yet, this improvement is not met by global rainfall products which still face challenges in reliably capturing spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation events.
相似文献16.
New rurality and the experience of place: the small rural locality of La Niña,Buenos Aires,Argentina
This paper presents a cultural geographic approach for understanding local social processes of territorial re-appropriation taking place in response to non-local forces and interests. This approach is applied to the small rural locality of La Niña, in Buenos Aires Province, Argentina. The small village of La Niña is currently in a locally-led process of recovering from a recent depopulation trend caused mainly by the irruption of transnational agribusiness. As economic opportunities have dwindled in the last decades, more recently local inhabitants and new settlers have set forth diverse strategies aimed at mitigating the effects of depopulation on the social structure. We focus our attention on the way the living experience of place is involved in all these strategies. We contend that despite economic and cultural homogenization caused by globalization, the experience of place is a permanent though ever-changing aspect of social life. Our research was based on archival and hemerographic surveys and ethnographic field techniques, encompassing participatory observation, semistructured and in-depth interviews with social and government leaders and local producers as well as field landscape appraisals. 相似文献
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El Niño-Southern Oscillation: Related Probabilities of Fatalities from Natural Perils in Australia 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The interannual variability of flood, bushfire andheatwave fatality data for eastern Australia duringthe period 1876–1991 was analysed with respect to thephase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)and the associated values of the Southern OscillationIndex (SOI). Heatwaves were found to be the mostserious peril in terms of the total number offatalities, while floods ranked first in the fatalityevent day statistics. None of the three monthly(absolute value) fatality data sets showed significantcorrelations with the corresponding values of the SOI,while the correlation analysis of annual (July toJune) data led to significant correlation coefficientsof 0.5 for floods and -0.3 for bushfires. AdditionalSOI value-related classification of the standardisedfatality event days into several ENSO categoriesconfirmed the correlation trends by showing anincrease (decrease) in the standardised bushfire(flood) fatality event day frequencies with increasingvalues of the SOI. In contrast to that, thestandardised heatwave fatality data showed aninconclusive distribution pattern, which hints at theinfluence of other possible factors (such as airpollution) on heatwave-related fatality numbers.The results of a risk assessment analysis have shownthat the probability of reaching the mean annualnumber of flood-fatality event days is roughly fourtimes higher during La Niña seasons (80%) thanthe corresponding probability associated with ElNiño periods (18%). The correspondingprobabilities associated with the mean bushfire andheatwave fatality event days displayed a reversedpattern, with the probabilities of El Niño-relatedyears being roughly twice as high as those associatedwith La Niña seasons (70% and 30% for bushfires,and 60% and 25% for heatwaves, respectively).Further probability calculations performed on thetotals of fatalities from all three perils identifiedthe La Niña years as potentially the mostdangerous in terms of suffering fatalities from theseperils. Furthermore, they highlighted the significantdifferences between the means of fatality event daynumbers recorded during years of extreme SOI values(9.8 for La Niña, and 9.1 for El Niño seasons)and those marked by near-zero SOI values (6.6). Themajor reason for the increase in risk associated withextreme ENSO phases was the higher variability ofthese perils during the respective seasons. 相似文献
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A global database of 2,626 rainfall events that have resulted in shallow landslides and debris flows was compiled through
a thorough literature search. The rainfall and landslide information was used to update the dependency of the minimum level
of rainfall duration and intensity likely to result in shallow landslides and debris flows established by Nel Caine in 1980.
The rainfall intensity–duration (ID) values were plotted in logarithmic coordinates, and it was established that with increased
rainfall duration, the minimum average intensity likely to trigger shallow slope failures decreases linearly, in the range
of durations from 10 min to 35 days. The minimum ID for the possible initiation of shallow landslides and debris flows was
determined. The threshold curve was obtained from the rainfall data using an objective statistical technique. To cope with
differences in the intensity and duration of rainfall likely to result in shallow slope failures in different climatic regions,
the rainfall information was normalized to the mean annual precipitation and the rainy-day normal. Climate information was
obtained from the global climate dataset compiled by the Climate Research Unit of the East Anglia University. The obtained
global ID thresholds are significantly lower than the threshold proposed by Caine (Geogr Ann A 62:23–27, 1980), and lower than other global thresholds proposed in the literature. The new global ID thresholds can be used in a worldwide
operational landslide warning system based on global precipitation measurements where local and regional thresholds are not
available.. 相似文献
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Soma Kuwabara Hidenori Terasaki Keisuke Nishida Yuta Shimoyama Yusaku Takubo Yuji Higo Yuki Shibazaki Satoru Urakawa Kentaro Uesugi Akihisa Takeuchi Tadashi Kondo 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2016,43(3):229-236
The sound velocity (V P) of liquid Fe–10 wt% Ni and Fe–10 wt% Ni–4 wt% C up to 6.6 GPa was studied using the ultrasonic pulse-echo method combined with synchrotron X-ray techniques. The obtained V P of liquid Fe–Ni is insensitive to temperature, whereas that of liquid Fe–Ni–C tends to decrease with increasing temperature. The V P values of both liquid Fe–Ni and Fe–Ni–C increase with pressure. Alloying with 10 wt% of Ni slightly reduces the V P of liquid Fe, whereas alloying with C is likely to increase the V P. However, a difference in V P between liquid Fe–Ni and Fe–Ni–C becomes to be smaller at higher temperature. By fitting the measured V P data with the Murnaghan equation of state, the adiabatic bulk modulus (K S0) and its pressure derivative (K S ′ ) were obtained to be K S0 = 103 GPa and K S ′ = 5.7 for liquid Fe–Ni and K S0 = 110 GPa and K S ′ = 7.6 for liquid Fe–Ni–C. The calculated density of liquid Fe–Ni–C using the obtained elastic parameters was consistent with the density values measured directly using the X-ray computed tomography technique. In the relation between the density (ρ) and sound velocity (V P) at 5 GPa (the lunar core condition), it was found that the effect of alloying Fe with Ni was that ρ increased mildly and V P decreased, whereas the effect of C dissolution was to decrease ρ but increase V P. In contrast, alloying with S significantly reduces both ρ and V P. Therefore, the effects of light elements (C and S) and Ni on the ρ and V P of liquid Fe are quite different under the lunar core conditions, providing a clue to constrain the light element in the lunar core by comparing with lunar seismic data. 相似文献
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Natural Hazards - East African countries (Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi) are prone to weather extreme events. In this regard, the past occurrence of extreme rainfall events is... 相似文献