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1.
An interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic programming model for water resources management under uncertainty 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
In this study, an interval-parameter multi-stage stochastic linear programming (IMSLP) method has been developed for water resources decision making under uncertainty. The IMSLP is a hybrid methodology of inexact optimization and multi-stage stochastic programming. It has three major advantages in comparison to the other optimization techniques. Firstly, it extends upon the existing multi-stage stochastic programming method by allowing uncertainties expressed as probability density functions and discrete intervals to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Secondly, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. Thirdly, it cannot only handle uncertainties through constructing a set of scenarios that is representative for the universe of possible outcomes, but also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over the planning horizon. The developed IMSLP method is applied to a hypothetical case study of water resources management. The results are helpful for water resources managers in not only making decisions of water allocation but also gaining insight into the tradeoffs between environmental and economic objectives. 相似文献
2.
In this study, a fuzzy-boundary interval-stochastic programming (FBISP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. The developed FBISP method can deal with uncertainties expressed as probability distributions and fuzzy-boundary intervals. With the aid of an interactive algorithm woven with a vertex analysis, solutions for FBISP model under associated α-cut levels can be generated by solving a set of deterministic submodels. The related probability and possibility information can also be reflected in the solutions for the objective function value and decision variables. The developed FBISP is also applied to water resources management and planning within a multi-reservoir system. Various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the pre-regulated water-allocation targets are violated are analyzed. The results obtained are useful for generating a range of decision alternatives under various system conditions, and thus helping decision makers to identify desired water resources management policies under uncertainty. 相似文献
3.
Ping Guo Xiaohong Chen Mo Li Jianbing Li 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1601-1612
A fuzzy chance-constrained linear fractional programming method was developed for agricultural water resources management under multiple uncertainties. This approach improved upon the previous programming methods, and could reflect the ratio objective function and multiple uncertainties expressed as probability distributions, fuzzy sets, and their combinations. The proposed approach is applied to an agricultural water resources management system where many crops are considered under different precipitation years. Through the scenarios analyses, the multiple alternatives are presented. The solutions show that it is applicable to practical problems to address the crop water allocation under the precipitation variation and sustainable development with ratio objective function of the benefit and the irrigation amount. It also provides bases for identifying desired agriculture water resources management plans with reasonable benefit and irrigation schedules under crops. 相似文献
4.
In agriculture, water is a fundamental but increasingly scarce resource that requires careful use. The goal of fostering water-savings could be achieved with a regulation that imposes more efficient irrigation systems. This might represent the only policy option when water withdrawals cannot be controlled and when the operational context does not allow filling the information asymmetry between policy makers and farmers with metering systems, quotas, or market rights. The regulation could involve higher costs for farmers. However, it could represent an opportunity to increase farm revenues if consumers are willing to pay a higher price for goods produced according to an ecological standard. Knowledge of the costs and possible benefits is relevant because it would enable us to understand the potential cost allocation among stakeholders according to how the policy is designed. The results of this study indicate that the management cost of a sustainable irrigation system could be at most 48% greater than that of a wasteful, traditional system. However, the higher costs of the regulation could be compensated for because consumers are willing to pay 6.8% more for less intensive water-use agricultural products. Therefore, a regulation associated with the promotion of hypothetical water-saving label can be the best strategy to irrigation efficiency in agriculture. 相似文献
5.
Ancient Peruvian irrigation systems have been studied extensively, but much remains unknown about technical and hydrological aspects of these irrigation systems. The Pampa de Chaparrí irrigation system in Peru is used as an example to show how modeling approaches for hydrological and hydraulic features of irrigation can yield results to improve our understanding of irrigation in the area. Analysis focuses on water availability compared demand, the way available water may have been applied to crops and whether the water needed could be delivered through the canal system. Results suggest that on the Pampa some 2500 hectares may have been cultivated within certain security limits for acceptable yields. The rhythm with which the irrigation requirement was applied to crops most likely influenced yields and thus food security. Furthermore, the influence of groundwater on crop growth may have been considerable. The hydraulic behavior of the irrigation system suggests that it should not be taken for granted that theoretically required water flows could actually be diverted and/or distributed to water users. The many questions coming out of the results define important items for a joint research agenda of archeologists and irrigation scientists. 相似文献
6.
Y. Huang Y. P. Li X. Chen A. M. Bao Y. G. Ma 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(1):147-158
In this study, a multistage simulation-based optimization model is developed for supporting water resources management under uncertainty. The system couples a lumped rainfall-runoff model with an inexact multistage stochastic program, where its random parameter is provided by the statistical analysis of simulation outcomes. Moreover, penalties are exercised with recourse against any infeasibility, which permits in-depth analyses of various policy scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic consequences when the promised water-allocation targets are violated. The developed model can also reflect dynamic features of the system conditions through transactions at discrete points in time over a multistage context. The developed model is applied to a real case of planning water resources management in Tarim River Basin, which is one of the most serious water-shortage regions of China. A variety of policies associated with different water-allocation targets are analyzed. The results are helpful for decision makers identifying optimal water-allocation plans for mitigating the conflict among ecological protection, economic development, and regional sustainability. 相似文献
7.
Xiaoyan Li Hongwei Lu Li He Bin Shi 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(2):281-295
In this study, an inexact stochastic optimization model (ITSOM) is developed for agricultural irrigation management with a case study in China. Functional intervals are introduced into the modeling framework to much accurately address the spatial and temporal variation of system components. According to the results of case study, the developed model shows effectiveness in dealing with functional information of system parameters, and brings no difficulty in obtaining optimal water allocation patterns. It is indicated that the surface water resource (i.e. Heshui River) has better be used as the major source, and proper exploration of groundwater can curtail the related expense and further increase the system net benefit. Among eight farms, hybrid rice farm is going to obtain the greatest amount of water than the others, while watermelon farm has the priority to get water due to its highest benefit and penalty rate. In comparison, water allocations to rapeseed and tea farms are to be minimal within the respective fluctuation ranges. Scenario analysis is also conducted to clarify the differences between ITSOM and a conventional interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) model. A total of 60 scenarios are initiated respectively linking to 60 monthly ITSP models for the entire planning horizon. The results show that the optimal objective function values of all ITSP models always fall into the range of that obtained from ITSOM. As each ITSP solution can only correspond to the system condition under a certain time point, it is highly vulnerable to system variation. 相似文献
8.
J. O'Keeffe S. Moulds J.M. Scheidegger C.R. Jackson T. Nair A. Mijic 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(5):1217-1228
The effects of anthropogenic water use play a significant role in determining the hydrological cycle of north India. This paper explores anthropogenic impacts within the region's hydrological regime by explicitly including observed human water use behaviour, irrigation infrastructure and the natural environment in the CHANSE (Coupled Human And Natural Systems Environment) socio-hydrological modelling framework. The model is constrained by observed qualitative and quantitative information collected in the study area, along with climate and socio-economic variables from additional sources. Four separate scenarios, including business as usual (BAU, representing observed irrigation practices), groundwater irrigation only (where the influence of the canal network is removed), canal irrigation only (where all irrigation water is supplied by diverted surface water) and rainfed only (where all human interventions are removed) are used. Under BAU conditions the modelling framework closely matched observed groundwater levels. Following the removal of the canal network, which forces farmers to rely completely on groundwater for irrigation, water levels decrease, while under a canal-only scenario flooding occurs. Under the rainfed-only scenario, groundwater levels similar to current business-as-usual conditions are observed, despite much larger volumes of recharge and discharge entering and leaving the system under BAU practices. While groundwater abstraction alone may lead to aquifer depletion, the conjunctive use of surface and groundwater resources, which includes unintended contributions of canal leakage, create conditions similar to those where no human interventions are present. Here, the importance of suitable water management practices, in maintaining sustainable water resources, is shown. This may include augmenting groundwater resources through managed aquifer recharge and reducing the impacts on aquifer resources through occasional canal water use where possible. The importance of optimal water management practices that highlight trade-offs between environmental impact and human wellbeing are shown, providing useful information for policy makers, water managers and users. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
9.
A three‐dimensional numerical modelling system is developed to study transformation processes of water resources in alluvial fan and river basin along the middle reaches of the Heihe River Basin, Northwest China, an arid and semi‐arid region. Integrating land utilization, remote sensing and geographic information systems, we have developed a numerical modelling system that can be used to quantify the effects of land use and anthropogenic activities on the groundwater system as well as to investigate the interaction between surface water and groundwater. Various hydraulic measurements are used to identify and calibrate the hydraulic boundary conditions and spatial distributions of hydraulic parameters. In the modelling study, various water exchanges and human effects on the watershed system are considered. These include water exchange between surface water and groundwater, groundwater pumping, lateral water recharges from mountain areas, land utilization, and infiltration and evaporation in the irrigation and non‐irrigation areas. The modelling system provides a quantitative method to describe spatial and temporal distributions and transformations between various water resources, and it has application to other watersheds in arid and semi‐arid areas. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Reservoir-system simulation and optimization techniques 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Sabah S. Fayaed Ahmed El-Shafie Othman Jaafar 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(7):1751-1772
Reservoir operation is one of the challenging problems for water resources planners and managers. In developing countries the end users are represented by the water sectors in most parts and conflict over water is resolved at the agency level. This paper discusses an overview of simulation and optimization modeling methods utilized in resolving critical issues with regard to reservoir systems. In designing a highly efficient as well as effective dam and reservoir operational system, reservoir simulation constitutes one of the most important steps to be considered. Reservoirs with well-functional and reliable optimization models require very accurate simulations. However, the nonlinearity of natural physical processes causes a major problem in determining the simulation of the reservoir’s parameters (elevation, surface-area, storage). Optimization techniques have shown high efficiency when used with simulation modeling and the combination of the two methods had given the best results in the reservoir management. The principal concern of this review study is to critically evaluate and analyze simulation, optimization and combined simulation–optimization modeling approach and present an overview of their utility in previous studies. Inferences and suggestions which may assist in improving quality of this overview in the future are provided. These will also enable future researchers, system analysts and managers to achieve more precise optimal operational system. 相似文献