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1.
中国区域夏季再分析资料高空变量可信度的检验   总被引:5,自引:0,他引:5       下载免费PDF全文
利用全球探空资料(IGRA)对1989—2008年美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和大气研究中心(NCAR)再分析资料、NCEP和美国能源部(DOE)再分析资料、NCEP气候预测系统再分析资料(CFSR)、日本气象厅25年再分析资料(JRA-25)、欧洲数值预报中心再分析资料(ERA-Interim)和美国国家航空航天局(NASA)现代回顾性再分析资料(MERRA)的高空变量在中国地区对流层中高层的可信度进行了初步的检验.分析结果表明:再分析资料对中高层位势高度和温度的夏季平均气候态具有较好的再现能力,其EOF的时空变化特征与观测吻合也较好;再分析资料的绝对湿度值较观测结果要偏大,其中MERRA与观测最为接近.再分析资料不能很好地反映经向风的夏季平均气候态及年际变化特征,EOF的时空模态和观测偏离也较大.总体而言,NCEP/NCAR、NCEP/DOE及NCEP/CFSR对这些变量的再现能力较JRA-25、ERA-Interim和MERRA弱.  相似文献   

2.
基于简正模扰动理论和勒夫数扰动方法,采用Zschau 的地幔流变模型,在假设Chandler摆动的能量全部耗散于地幔滞弹性摩擦的条件下,导出Chandler 摆动Q(Q_w)的理论值.还考虑了滞弹地球的平衡极潮对摆动的影响,所得结果与绝大部分天文实测值非常一致.分析表明.平衡部分的影响大,地幔滞弹性很可能是Chandler 摆动最主要的能量耗散源,Q_w 的理论值约为71.还推算了吸收带模型参数α,研究了该模型的适用性,并讨论了Q_w 与地幔Q(Q_m)的关系.  相似文献   

3.
由地球自转的年际变化预测El Nino事件   总被引:13,自引:7,他引:6  
分析了地球自转、大气角动量和太阳黑子相对数的年际变化与El Nio的关系。结果表明:当地球自转速率的年际变化由快向慢转变,即表示年际变化的△LOD1的数值由极小逐渐增加并转变为正值约半年后,El Nio的初期开始出现。此期间大气角动量的年际变化也呈现从小到大的过程。通过分析新的地球自转变化测值,预测2001年将出现El Nio。结果还表明El Nio可能与太阳活动有一定的关系。  相似文献   

4.
Chandler摆动的频散现象一般可归结为(i)海洋中能量耗散,(ii)地幔与地核之间的耦合效应,(iii)地幔物质非弹性。就其主要原因来说多数人认为当属后者(Mank与Macdonald 1960,chap.10;Lambeck,1980,chap.8)。如果忽略海洋摩擦及核幔耦合效应,一个自然的想法就是能否将为解释地震波及自由振荡中观测到的衰减现象而建立起的耗散机制外推到Chandler摆动。这种外推若是合理的,对地球流变性质的研究就能从0.2s至100min振动周期时间尺度扩散到14个月周期的时间尺度。Jefferys首先认识到Chandler摆动这一特殊重要意义。在他的一个开创性工作中(1958),利用修改了的Lomnitg定律,Jefferys导出在非弹性效应很小的前提下衰减因子Q与频率f之间满足一个简单关系  相似文献   

5.
本文利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了1979~2008年北半球冬季哈得莱(Hadley)环流年际变化的特征,在此基础上,讨论了在观测海温驱动下大气环流模式的模拟结果.观测分析表明,近30年北半球冬季哈得莱环流年际变率的主导模态呈现出空间上的非均匀变化,哈得莱环流圈位于热带部分与其位于副热带部分的强度变化符号相反,这在表征其年际变化特征的另一指标——经向风垂直切变中亦有显著体现.大气环流模式AMIP积分试验结果表明,北半球冬季哈得莱环流强度的上述年际变化源于海温强迫.分析发现,热带中东太平洋和南印度洋暖海温距平强迫导致了哈得莱环流强度年际变化的主导模态呈现出空间上的非均匀变化.ElNio的局地作用和大气桥作用激发的太平洋局地哈得莱环流(30°S~30°N,150°E~90°W)和大西洋局地哈得莱环流(30°S~30°N,90°W~10°W)并非呈现出整体一致的变化,尽管二者纬向平均后分别使气候平均的哈得莱环流圈强度加强和减弱.ElNio遥强迫作用激发的西北太平洋反气旋(0°~30°N,100°E~150°E)使北半球Hadley环流圈强度减弱,ElNio和南印度洋暖海温距平共同强迫出的南印度洋反气旋(30°S~0°,60°E~100°E)使南半球Hadley环流圈的强度亦减弱.上述局地哈得莱环流的变化叠加后,因纬向平均的太平洋局地哈得莱环流强度在(副)热带部分的增强大(小)于纬向平均的大西洋局地哈得莱环流和西北太平洋、南印度洋局地哈得莱环流在(副)热带地区的减弱,结果使得哈得莱环流圈的强度在(副)热带部分偏强(弱);较之南半球,北半球强度变化稍强.因此,北半球冬季哈得莱环流年际变率的主导模态在空间上呈现出非均匀变化.  相似文献   

6.
太阳光压、地球的公转与自转、黄赤交角的存在及地球表面陆地和海洋的地理分布绝妙地组成了一套天然的能激发自转轴晃动(Wobble)并产生极移的日-地间能量(动量)相耦合的物理机制.太阳光压对自转轴摆动的激发时间存在两种不同的周期,即周年期激发机制和周日期激发机制,由此产生的极移运动轨迹也可分为周年期变化和周日期变化两种,这两种极移运动轨迹中均含有长期极移的成分.本文详细讨论了周日期激发机制引起的瞬时极移及其运动特征和长期极移及其运动方向,并按现今地球表面陆地和海洋的分布格局,求出长期极移的总体运动方向大致为参考极M沿西经70°~80°向加拿大的埃尔斯米尔岛移动.依据本文的研究成果,可以帮助人们揭开自元代(距今已800多年)以来所建立的北京中轴线为什么逆时针偏离子午线2°多这一极富传奇色彩的谜团.  相似文献   

7.
Hadley环流与北太平洋涛动的显著关系   总被引:4,自引:2,他引:2       下载免费PDF全文
利用NCEP/NCAR月平均再分析资料,分析了冬季(11~4月)Hadley环流与北太平洋涛动(NPO)的变化特征以及它们之间的关系.本文选取0°~30°N区域里最大质量流函数来描述北半球Hadley环流强度随时间的演变,利用(20°N, 180°~160°W) 和 (60°N, 180°~160°W) 区域平均的标准化海平面气压差代表NPO强度.结果表明,冬季北半球Hadley环流与NPO的变化形势非常一致,两者都具有显著的年际和年代际变化(70年代前处于负位相,80年代之后处于正位相),同时还呈现出明显的增强趋势.Hadley环流变化与NPO异常的关系非常密切,在年际和年代际时间尺度上都具有显著的正相关.这种强相关性在大气环流场上可以得到很好的印证.研究还揭示,太平洋地区10°~30°N下沉支和40°~60°N上升支的异常运动可能是这种关系存在的主要内在原因.  相似文献   

8.
本文利用ERA和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,以及部分观测资料,研究了东亚夏季风年代际变化的若干重要特征. 结果表明,东亚夏季风在20世纪70年代末减弱这一现象是普遍存在的,主要表现为江淮地区表面温度降低,海平面气压升高,出现偏北风异常. 研究发现,这次年代际变化还体现在与东亚季风环流密切相关的重要环流因子,如西太平洋副热带高压、欧亚西风、澳大利亚高压、南极涛动等,它们在20世纪70年代末以后都进入高指数时期. 此外,文章还揭示:ERA和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料在东亚夏季风年代际变化上基本吻合,但也有很多差别.  相似文献   

9.
平流层准两年变化对南海夏季风影响机制的探讨   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
利用美国大气研究中心(the National Center for Atmospheric Research, NCAR)的中层大气模式模拟了平流层准两年振荡(Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, QBO)过程对对流层顶和对流层上层的影响, 并结合NCEP(the National Centers for Environmental Prediction)/NCAR、欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, ECMWF)月平均的风场资料和实际的探空观测资料, 分析了平流层QBO对南海夏季风的影响作用. 结果表明: 平流层QBO会引起平流层的异常经向环流并向下传播, 在QBO位相的中后期和位相转换期影响到对流层顶和对流层上层, 使热带和低纬度的对流层上层形成异常的经向气压梯度, 最终在夏季的对流层热带地区激发出不同类型的异常环流—西风位相时, 激发出与南海夏季风环流相反的异常环流, 在南海地区有显著的异常下沉运动, 对南海夏季风有削弱作用; 东风位相时, 激发出反Hadley环流型的异常环流, 在南海地区有明显的异常上升气流, 对南海夏季风有加强的效果. 虽然QBO对南海夏季风经向环流有影响, 但它并不是决定南海夏季风准两年变化的唯一因子.  相似文献   

10.
核幔耦合对地球自由核章动的激发影响   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1       下载免费PDF全文
地球自由核章动(FCN)是地幔与液核相互作用的重要动力学现象,其激发机制涉及地表流体层、地幔和地核等圈层之间的耦合,此前研究多利用地表流体层角动量数据单独研究其对FCN的激发,对核幔耦合的影响考虑不足.本文基于角动量守恒理论分析了核幔耦合对FCN周期及振幅的影响,并结合多个大气及海洋角动量函数时间序列首次估算了核幔耦合在FCN激发过程中的贡献.结果表明核幔耦合对FCN周期产生的固定和时变影响对FCN激发的作用均不可忽视,尤其时变影响可达几十个微角秒,对于进一步解释FCN时变特征非常重要;核幔耦合对FCN振幅的直接影响是地表流体层的激发与实测FCN不相符的主要原因,黏滞、电磁和地形等耗散耦合的存在对地表流体的激发振幅有67%左右的减弱效果.  相似文献   

11.
The impact of continental hydrological loading from land water, snow and ice on polar motion excitation, calculated as hydrological angular momentum (HAM), is difficult to estimate, and not as much is known about it as about atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). In this paper, regional hydrological excitations to polar motion are investigated using monthly terrestrial water storage data derived from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission and from the five models of land hydrology. The results show that the areas where the variance shows large variability are similar for the different models of land hydrology and for the GRACE data. Areas which have a small amplitude on the maps make an important contribution to the global hydrological excitation function of polar motion. The comparison of geodetic residuals and global hydrological excitation functions of polar motion shows that none of the hydrological excitation has enough energy to significantly improve the agreement between the observed geodetic excitation and geophysical ones.  相似文献   

12.
The influence of global warming in Earth rotation speed   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The tendency of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) is investigated using a 49-year set of monthly AAM data for the period January 1949–December 1997. This data set is constructed with zonal wind values from the reanalyses of NCEP/NCAR, used in conjunction with a variety of operationally produced AAM time series with different independent sources and lengths over 1976–1997. In all the analyzed AAM series the linear trend is found to be positive. Since the angular momentum of the atmosphere–earth system is conserved this corresponds to a net loss of angular momentum by the solid earth, therefore decreasing the Earth rotation speed and increasing the length of day (LOD). The AAM rise is significant to the budget of angular momentum of the global atmosphere–earth system; its value in milliseconds/century (ms/cy) is +0.56 ms/cy, corresponding to one-third of the estimated increase in LOD (+1.7 ms/cy). The major contribution to this secular trend in AAM comes from the equatorial Tropopause. This is consistent with results from a previous study using a simplified aqua-planet model to investigate the AAM variations due to near equatorial warming conditions. During the same time interval, 1949–1997, the global marine + land-surface tempera- ture increases by about 0.79 °C/cy, showing a linear correspondence between surface temperature increase and global AAM of about 0.07 ms per 0.1 °C. These results imply that atmospheric angular momentum may be used as an independent index of the global atmosphere’s dynamical response to the greenhouse forcing, and as such, the length of day may be used as an indirect indicator of global warming.  相似文献   

13.
In this study we compared contributions to polar motion excitation determined separately from each of three kinds of geophysical data: atmospheric pressure, equivalent water height estimated from hydrological models, and harmonic coefficients of the Earth gravity field obtained from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE). Hydrological excitation function (Hydrological Angular Momentum — HAM) has been estimated from models of global hydrology, based on the observed distribution of surfacewater, snow, ice, and soil moisture. In our considerationwe used several global models of land hydrosphere and models ofAtmospheric Angular Momentum (AAM) and Oceanic Angular Momentum (OAM). All of themwere compared with observed Geodetic Angular Momentum (GAM). The spectra of the following excitation functions of polar motion: GAM, AAM+OAM, AAM+OAM+HAM, GAM-AAM-OAM residual geodetic excitation function, and HAM were computed too. The time variable spectra of geodetic, gravimetric, and the sum of atmospheric, oceanic, and hydrological excitation functions are also presented. Phasor diagrams of the seasonal components of polar motion excitation functions of all HAM excitation functions as well as of two GRACE solutions: Center for Space Research (CSR), Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales/Groupe de Recherche en Geodesie Spatiale (CNES/GRGS) were determined and discussed.  相似文献   

14.
Popiński  W.  Kosek  W.  Schuh  H.  Schmidt  M. 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2002,46(3):455-468
The wavelet transform techniques were applied to compute time-frequency spectra, coherence and cross-covariance functions between complex-valued polar motion and atmospheric excitation functions. These wavelet transform approaches are based on the classical wavelet transform with Morlet wavelet and the harmonic wavelet transform. The computed coherence and cross-covariance functions enable comparison of polar motion and atmospheric excitation functions data in the chosen frequency band. In the study we concentrate on short period oscillations with periods ranging from several to about 250 days. The time lag functions show frequency dependent time lags corresponding to maxima of the modules of cross-covariance functions between the polar motion and atmospheric excitation functions.  相似文献   

15.
This paper addresses two avenues for gaining insight into the hurricane intensity issue—the angular momentum approach and the scale interaction approach. In the angular momentum framework, the torques acting on a parcel's angular momentum are considered along an inflowing trajectory in order to construct the angular momentum budget. These torques are separable into three components: The pressure torque, the surface friction torque, and the cloud torque. All torques are found to diminish the angular momentum of an inflowing parcel, with the cloud torques having the most important role. In the scale interaction approach, energy exchanges among different scales within a hurricane are considered as a means of understanding hurricane intensity. It is found that the majority of kinetic energy contribution to the hurricane scales originates from potential-to-kinetic in-scale energy conversions. The contribution of mean-wave interactions in the kinetic energy varies with distance from the center and with the life stage of a storm. In the early stages, as the disorganized convection becomes organized on the hurricane scales, upscale energy transfers (i.e., from small to large scale) are found to take place in the outer radii of the storm. In a mature storm, the kinetic energy transfers are downscale, except for the inner radii.  相似文献   

16.
The effect of the atmosphere on the Earth's rotation can be computed by twodifferent but fundamentally equivalent approaches. The more commonly used is the so-called angular momentum approach, and the second is the torque approach. Their physicalmeanings are recalled, and numerical results from the two are intercompared, concentrating on the lowest periods of a few days or shorter. The indirect effect of the atmosphereon the Earth rotation due to atmospheric forcing on the ocean is also described based on both static and dynamic oceanic models.Results are discussed for the equatorial components and for the highest frequencies.  相似文献   

17.
The balance conditions of relative angular momentum and time-mean kinetic energy and their annual variations are studied for the Northern Hemisphere tropical belt. The belt is divided into two roughly equal size parts, the monsoon and the extramonsoon regions. The data used consist of all available daily rawinsonde reports from the world areological network for the two 5-year periods 1958–63 and 1968–73.In winter, the trade winds in the monsoon and extramonsoon regions are both sources of westerly relative angular momentum for the middle latitude circulation. However, it is found that the angular momentum gained in the extramonsoon region of the Tropics is mostly destroyed by a net southward flow of mass in that region, and becomes regenerated in the monsoon region by a net northward flow of mass there. This excess of angular momentum together with the angular momentum picked up locally in the monsoon region is almost all exported across its northern boundary. It is further found that in winter the Tropics are also an important source of mean kinetic energy for middle latitudes. Again almost all export of kinetic energy was found to take place across the northern boundary of the monsoon sector. Most of this energy must be generated through the pressure gradient term inside the monsoon region itself, the transformation from transient eddy kinetic energy being very small. The proper evaluation of the pressure gradient appears to be the main stumbling block in the present study, preventing us from estimating the generation and thereby, as a residual, the frictional dissipation in the two regions.In summer, the extramonsoon region remains a source of angular momentum, but the monsoon region with its surface westerlies acts as a sink, leading to a sharp reduction (and even a midsummer reversal) of the export into middle latitudes. Also the export of mean kinetic energy almost vanishes in summer, except for a small southward transfer across the equator. The calculations for two 5-year periods give very similar estimates and thereby show the reliability of the results.Parts of this paper were presented at the International Symposium on Monsoons, March 7–12, 1977 in New Delhi, India.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract

The south-easterly surface flow down the slopes of Antarctica induces a transfer of westerly angular momentum to the atmosphere, which must be removed from the Antarctic domain by atmospheric transports. It is suggested that synoptic eddies protruding from the northern baroclinic zone into the polar regions are modified by the topography such that they are able to perform these meridional transports. A simple linear two-layer model of the axisymmetric circulation of Antarctica is presented where the eddy effects are incorporated via a K-ansatz. It is shown that qualitatively realistic mean flow patterns can be obtained with this model. The limitations of this approach are exposed.  相似文献   

19.
Water Resources - The data of atmospheric reanalysis NCEP/NCAR over 1948–2017 (R-1) and NCEP/DOE over 1979–2017 (R-2) have been used to show that variations of the Caspian Sea level are...  相似文献   

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