排序方式： 共有11条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Małgorzata Świerczyńska Tomasz Niedzielski Wiesław Kosek 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2014,58(2):302-325
The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, we demonstrate that the asymmetry between El Niño and La Niña events recorded in sea level variation occurs only during extreme episodes of El Niño/Southern Oscillation. Second, we explain that the asymmetry is controlled by certain regular cycles which have time-variable amplitudes. Gridded maps of sea level anomaly that form a spatial-temporal time series (spatial resolution: 1° × 1°, sampling interval: 1 week) spanning the time interval from 14/10/1993 to 18/04/2012 were used. We examined those time series and found that certain regular harmonic signals (periods: 365, 182, 120, 90 and 62 days) are dominant terms of their temporal variability. By subtracting those oscillations from sea level anomaly data, residuals were determined. Using skewness and kurtosis as measures of asymmetry and nonlinearity — after adopting 10-year moving window — we found that the extreme El Niño 1997/1998 has been a dominant driving force of the asymmetry and nonlinearity of El Niño/Southern Oscillation since the end of 1993. In order to detect residual signals that are responsible for the asymmetry, we applied the Fourier Transform Band Pass Filter and found that there are two important oscillations remaining in the residual sea level anomaly data, i.e. the annual and semiannual ones with time-varying amplitudes. We hypothesize that temporarily uneven amplitudes have meaningful impact on the aforementioned asymmetry. 相似文献
2.
The polar motion prediction is computed as a least-squares extrapolation of the polar motion data. The least-squares model consists of a Chandler circle with constant or variable amplitude, annual and semiannual ellipses, and a bias. The model with constant amplitude of the Chandler oscillation is fit to the last three years of polar motion data and the model with variable amplitude of the Chandler oscillation is fit to the whole time series ranging from 1973.0 to 2001.1. The variable amplitude of the Chandler oscillation is modeled from the envelope of the Chandler oscillation filtered by the Fourier transform band pass filter from the long-term IERS EOPC01 polar motion series. The accuracy of the polar motion prediction depends mostly on the phase variation of the annual oscillation, which is treated as a constant in the least-squares adjustment. There were two significant changes of the annual oscillation phase of the order of 30° before the two El Niño events in 1982/83 and 1997/98. 相似文献
3.
The atmospheric influence on the Earths, rotation can be described by the effective atmospheric angular momentum (EAAM) functions. In this study we focus on the analysis of short period variations of the equatorial components of the zonal EAAM excitation functions 1 and 2 and their influence on similar variations of polar motion. The global objective analysis data of the Japanese Meteorological Agency for the period 1986–1992 were used to compute the EAAM excitation functions in different latitude belts. Time- and latitude-variable amplitude spectra of variations of these functions with periods shorter than 150 days, containing pressure, pressure with the inverted barometric correction, and wind terms were computed. The spectra show distinct latitude and time variations of the prograde and retrograde oscillations which reach their maxima mainly in mid-latitudes. Prograde and retrograde oscillations with periods of about 40–60 days and about 110–120 days are seen in the spectra of pressure terms of the equatorial components of the zonal EAAM excitation functions. Additionally, correlation coefficients and cross-spectra between variations of the geodetic polar motion and equatorial components of the zonal EAAM excitation functions were computed to identify the latitude belts of the globe over which atmospheric circulation changes are correlated mostly with short period variations of the polar motion excitation functions. The correlation coefficients vary in time and latitude and reach maximum values in the northern latitudes from 50°N to 60°N. In the cross-spectra between the polar motion excitation functions and pressure terms of the zonal EAAM excitation functions there are peaks of common prograde oscillations with the periods around 20, 30, 40–50, 60 and 80–150 days and of common retrograde oscillations around 20, 30, 40 and 50–70 days.Paper presented at the IERS Workshop in Paris, March 1994 相似文献
4.
This article presents the application of a multivariate prediction technique for predicting universal time (UT1–UTC), length of day (LOD) and the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM χ 3). The multivariate predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC are generated by means of the combination of (1) least-squares (LS) extrapolation of models for annual, semiannual, 18.6-year, 9.3-year oscillations and for the linear trend, and (2) multivariate autoregressive (MAR) stochastic prediction of LS residuals (LS + MAR). The MAR technique enables the use of the AAM χ 3 time-series as the explanatory variable for the computation of LOD or UT1–UTC predictions. In order to evaluate the performance of this approach, two other prediction schemes are also applied: (1) LS extrapolation, (2) combination of LS extrapolation and univariate autoregressive (AR) prediction of LS residuals (LS + AR). The multivariate predictions of AAM χ 3 data, however, are computed as a combination of the extrapolation of the LS model for annual and semiannual oscillations and the LS + MAR. The AAM χ 3 predictions are also compared with LS extrapolation and LS + AR prediction. It is shown that the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS + MAR taking into account the axial component of AAM are more accurate than the predictions of LOD and UT1–UTC based on LS extrapolation or on LS + AR. In particular, the UT1–UTC predictions based on LS + MAR during El Niño/La Niña events exhibit considerably smaller prediction errors than those calculated by means of LS or LS + AR. The AAM χ 3 time-series is predicted using LS + MAR with higher accuracy than applying LS extrapolation itself in the case of medium-term predictions (up to 100 days in the future). However, the predictions of AAM χ 3 reveal the best accuracy for LS + AR. 相似文献
5.
The wavelet transform techniques were applied to compute time-frequency spectra, coherence and cross-covariance functions between complex-valued polar motion and atmospheric excitation functions. These wavelet transform approaches are based on the classical wavelet transform with Morlet wavelet and the harmonic wavelet transform. The computed coherence and cross-covariance functions enable comparison of polar motion and atmospheric excitation functions data in the chosen frequency band. In the study we concentrate on short period oscillations with periods ranging from several to about 250 days. The time lag functions show frequency dependent time lags corresponding to maxima of the modules of cross-covariance functions between the polar motion and atmospheric excitation functions. 相似文献
6.
Variability of short period oscillations of polar motion with periods ranging from 20 to 150 days were investigated in the period 1979–1991. The new computation method of time variable band pass filter spectra and the Wavelet Transform method were applied. These oscillations are elliptical with variable amplitudes. Modulation periods of amplitude variations of these oscillations of about two and three years were found. Correlations of short period oscillations of polar motion and of effective atmospheric angular momentum (EAAM) excitation functions show annual variations and connections of their increases with El Niño phenomena. 相似文献
7.
M. Kalarus H. Schuh W. Kosek O. Akyilmaz Ch. Bizouard D. Gambis R. Gross B. Jovanović S. Kumakshev H. Kutterer P. J. Mendes Cerveira S. Pasynok L. Zotov 《Journal of Geodesy》2010,84(10):587-596
Precise transformations between the international celestial and terrestrial reference frames are needed for many advanced geodetic and astronomical tasks including positioning and navigation on Earth and in space. To perform this transformation at the time of observation, that is for real-time applications, accurate predictions of the Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are needed. The Earth orientation parameters prediction comparison campaign (EOP PCC) that started in October 2005 was organized for the purpose of assessing the accuracy of EOP predictions. This paper summarizes the results of the EOP PCC after nearly two and a half years of operational activity. The ultra short-term (predictions to 10 days into the future), short-term (30 days), and medium-term (500 days) EOP predictions submitted by the participants were evaluated by the same statistical technique based on the mean absolute prediction error using the IERS EOP 05 C04 series as a reference. A combined series of EOP predictions computed as a weighted mean of all submissions available at a given prediction epoch was also evaluated. The combined series is shown to perform very well, as do some of the individual series, especially those using atmospheric angular momentum forecasts. A main conclusion of the EOP PCC is that no single prediction technique performs the best for all EOP components and all prediction intervals. 相似文献
8.
This paper aims at the prediction of both global mean sea level anomalies (SLAs) and gridded SLA data in the east equatorial Pacific obtained from TOPEX/Poseidon and Jason-1 altimetric measurements. The first prediction technique (denoted as LS) is based on the extrapolation of a polynomial-harmonic deterministic least-squares model describing a linear trend, annual and semi-annual oscillations. The second prediction method (denoted as LS + AR) is a combination of the extrapolation of a polynomial-harmonic model with the autoregressive forecast of LS residuals. In the case of forecasting global mean SLA data, both techniques allow one to compute the predictions of comparable accuracy (root mean square error for 1-month in the future is of 0.5 cm). In the case of predicting gridded SLA data, the LS + AR prediction method gains significantly better prediction accuracy than the accuracy obtained by the LS technique during El Niño 1997/1998, La Niña 1998/1999 and during normal conditions. 相似文献
9.
Wieslaw Kosek 《Journal of Geodesy》1993,67(1):1-9
In order to find short periodic oscillations in the Earth's rate of rotation, atmospheric angular momentum, solar activity the Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis — MESA (Burg, 1967) has been applied. The MESA with moving autoregressive order has been introduced in order to detect more accurately periods of very weak short periodic variations. Oscillations with periods of about 75, 50, 27 and 18 days have been found in length of day — LOD, from which tidal oscillations were removed up to 35 days — LODR computed by the Center for Space Research — CSR from Lageos Laser Ranging data, in the axial component of atmospheric angular momentum —
3 determined by the U.S. National Meteorological Center — NMC and in the geomagnetic activity represented by the geomagnetic index —A
p (Lincoln, 1967). These oscillations computed by Ormsby band pass filter (Ormsby, 1961) are in a very good phase agreement in the case of oscillations with periods of 50 and 18 days in these 3 series. The MESA of the cross covariance estimations between LODR-
3,
3-A
p,A
p-LODR, LODR-FLUX,
3-FLUX, andA
p-FLUX has confirmed the existence of common oscillations with periods of 70, 50, 27 and 18 days. This indicates a possible relationship between solar activity and the short periodic exchange of angular momentum between the atmosphere and the solid Earth. 相似文献
10.
Possible improvement of Earth orientation forecast using autocovariance prediction procedures 总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1
Autocovariance prediction has been applied to attempt to improve polar motion and UT1-UTC predictions. The predicted polar
motion is the sum of the least-squares extrapolation model based on the Chandler circle, annual and semiannual ellipses, and
a bias fit to the past 3 years of observations and the autocovariance prediction of these extrapolation residuals computed
after subtraction of this model from pole coordinate data. This prediction method has been applied also to the UT1-UTC data,
from which all known predictable effects were removed, but the prediction error has not been reduced with respect to the error
of the current prediction model. However, the results show the possibility of decreasing polar motion prediction errors by
about 50 for different prediction lengths from 50 to 200 days with respect to the errors of the current prediction model.
Because of irregular variations in polar motion and UT1-UTC, the accuracy of the autocovariance prediction does depend on
the epoch of the prediction. To explain irregular variations in x, y pole coordinate data, time-variable spectra of the equatorial components of the effective atmospheric angular momentum, determined
by the National Center for Environmental Prediction, were computed. These time-variable spectra maxima for oscillations with
periods of 100–140 days, which occurred in 1985, 1988, and 1990 could be responsible for excitation of the irregular short-period
variations in pole coordinate data. Additionally, time-variable coherence between geodetic and atmospheric excitation function
was computed, and the coherence maxima coincide also with the greatest irregular variations in polar motion extrapolation
residuals.
Received: 22 October 1996 / Accepted: 16 September 1997 相似文献