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1.
The rainfall‐runoff modelling of a river basin can be divided into two processes: the production function and the transfer function. The production function determines the proportion of gross rainfall actually involved in the runoff. The transfer function spreads the net rainfall over time and space in the river basin. Such a transfer function can be modelled using the approach of the geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH). The effectiveness of geomorphological models is actually revealed in rainfall‐runoff modelling, where hydrologic data are desperately lacking, just as in ungauged basins. These models make it possible to forecast the hydrograph shape and runoff variation versus time at the basin outlet. This article is an introduction to a new GIUH model that proves to be simple and analytical. Its geomorphological parameters are easily available on a map or from a digital elevation model. This model is based on general hypotheses on symmetry that provide it with multiscale versatile characteristics. After having validated the model in river basins of very different nature and size, we present an application of this model for rainfall‐runoff modelling. Since parameters are determined relying on real geomorphological data, no calibration is necessary, and it is then possible to carry out rainfall‐runoff simulations in ungauged river basins. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
Eleonora Spada Marco Sinagra Tullio Tucciarelli Silvia Barbetta Tommaso Moramarco Giovanni Corato 《水文研究》2017,31(7):1539-1557
The discharge hydrograph estimation in rivers based on reverse routing modeling and using only water level data at two gauged sections is here extended to the most general case of significant lateral flow contribution, without needing to deploy rainfall–runoff procedures. The proposed methodology solves the Saint‐Venant equations in diffusive form also involving the lateral contribution using a “head‐driven” modeling approach where lateral inflow is assumed to be function of the water level at the tributary junction. The procedure allows to assess the discharge hydrograph at ends of a selected river reach with significant lateral inflow, starting from the stage recorded there and without needing rainfall data. Specifically, the MAST 1D hydraulic model is applied to solve the diffusive wave equation using the observed stage hydrograph at the upstream section as upstream boundary condition. The other required data are (a) the observed stage hydrograph at the downstream section, as benchmark for the parameter calibration, and (b) the bathymetry of the river reach, from the upstream section to a short distance after the downstream gauged section. The method is validated with different flood events observed in two river reaches with a significant intermediate basin, where reliable rating curves were available, selected along the Tiber River, in central Italy, and the Alzette River, in Luxembourg. Very good performance indices are found for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends and along the tributaries. The mean Nash‐Sutcliffe value (NSq) at the channel ends of two rivers is found equal to 0.99 and 0.86 for the upstream and downstream sites, respectively. The procedure is also validated on a longer stretch of the Tiber River including three tributaries for which appreciable results are obtained in terms of NSq for the computed discharge hydrographs at both the channel ends for three investigated flood events. 相似文献
3.
This work develops a top‐down modelling approach for storm‐event rainfall–runoff model calibration at unmeasured sites in Taiwan. Twenty‐six storm events occurring in seven sub‐catchments in the Kao‐Ping River provided the analytical data set. Regional formulas for three important features of a streamflow hydrograph, i.e. time to peak, peak flow, and total runoff volume, were developed via the characteristics of storm event and catchment using multivariate regression analysis. Validation of the regional formulas demonstrates that they reasonably predict the three features of a streamflow hydrograph at ungauged sites. All of the sub‐catchments in the study area were then adopted as ungauged areas, and the three streamflow hydrograph features were calculated by the regional formulas and substituted into the fuzzy multi‐objective function for rainfall–runoff model calibration. Calibration results show that the proposed approach can effectively simulate the streamflow hydrographs at the ungauged sites. The simulated hydrographs more closely resemble observed hydrographs than hydrographs synthesized using the Soil Conservation Service (SCS) dimensionless unit hydrograph method, a conventional method for hydrograph estimation at ungauged sites in Taiwan. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
Abstract In a typical reservoir routing problem, the givens are the inflow hydrograph and reservoir characteristic functions. Flood attenuation investigations can be easily accomplished using a hydrological or hydraulic routing of the inflow hydrograph to obtain the reservoir outflow hydrograph, unless the inflow hydrograph is unavailable. Although attempts for runoff simulation have been made in ungauged basins, there is only a limited degree of success in special cases. Those approaches are, in general, not suitable for basins with a reservoir. The objective of this study is to propose a procedure for flood attenuation estimation in ungauged reservoir basins. In this study, a kinematic-wave based geomorphic IUH model was adopted. The reservoir inflow hydrograph was generated through convolution integration using the rainfall excess and basin geomorphic information. Consequently, a fourth-order Runge-Kutta method was used to route the inflow hydrograph to obtain the reservoir outflow hydrograph without the aid of recorded flow data. Flood attenuation was estimated through the analysis of the inflow and outflow hydrographs of the reservoir. An ungauged reservoir basin in southern Taiwan is presented as an example to show the applicability of the proposed analytical procedure. The analytical results provide valuable information for downstream flood control work for different return periods. 相似文献
5.
ABSTRACTThe major flood of 2014 in the two eastern, transboundary rivers, the Jhelum and Chenab in Punjab, Pakistan, was simulated using the two-dimensional rainfall–runoff model. The simulated hydrograph showed good agreement with the observed discharge at the model outlet and intervening barrages, with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.86 at the basin outlet. Further, simulated flood inundation extent showed good agreement with the MODIS imagery with a fit (%) of 0.87. For some affected areas that experienced short-duration flooding, local housing damage data confirmed the simulated results. Besides the rainfall–runoff and flood inundation modelling, parameter sensitivity analysis was undertaken to identify the influence of various river and floodplain parameters. The analysis showed that the river channel geometric parameters and the roughness coefficients exerted the primary influence over flood extent and peak flow. 相似文献
6.
This paper reports the results of an investigation into flood simulation by areal rainfall estimated from the combination of gauged and radar rainfalls and a rainfall–runoff model on the Anseong‐cheon basin in the southern part of Korea. The spatial and temporal characteristics and behaviour of rainfall are analysed using various approaches combining radar and rain gauges: (1) using kriging of the rain gauge alone; (2) using radar data alone; (3) using mean field bias (MFB) of both radar and rain gauges; and (4) using conditional merging technique (CM) of both radar and rain gauges. To evaluate these methods, statistics and hyetograph for rain gauges and radar rainfalls were compared using hourly radar rainfall data from the Imjin‐river, Gangwha, rainfall radar site, Korea. Then, in order to evaluate the performance of flood estimates using different rainfall estimation methods, rainfall–runoff simulation was conducted using the physics‐based distributed hydrologic model, Vflo?. The flood runoff hydrograph was used to compare the calculated hydrographs with the observed one. Results show that the rainfall field estimated by CM methods improved flood estimates, because it optimally combines rainfall fields representing actual spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
Spatially distributed hydrologic models can be effectively utilized for flood event simulation over basins where a complex system of reservoirs affecting the natural flow regime is present. Flood peak attenuation through mountain reservoirs can, in fact, mitigate the impact of major floods in flood‐prone areas of the lower river valley. Assessment of this effect for a complex reservoir system is performed with a spatially distributed hydrologic model where the surface runoff formation and the hydraulic routing through each reservoir and the river system are performed at a fine spatial and time resolution. The Toce River basin is presented as a case study, because of the presence of 14 active hydroelectric dams that affect the natural flow regime. A recent extreme flood event is simulated using a multi‐realization kriging method for modelling the spatial distribution of rainfall. A sensitivity analysis of the key elements of the distributed hydrologic model is also performed. The flood hydrograph attenuation is assessed. Several possible reservoir storage conditions are used to characterize the initial condition of each reservoir. The results demonstrate how a distributed hydrologic model can contribute to defining strategies for reservoir management in flood mitigation. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(2):401-408
Abstract Knowledge of peak discharge is essential for safe and economical planning and design of hydraulic structures. In India, as in most developing countries, the majority of river basins are either sparsely gauged or not gauged at all. The gauged records are also of short length (generally 15–30 years), therefore development of robust models is necessary for estimation of streamflows. Various studies reveal that flood estimation through channel geometry is an alternative method for ungauged catchments. It is appropriate for use where flow characteristics are poorly related to catchment area and other catchment characteristics. In the present study, stream geometry parameters for 42 river sites in central-south India were used; calibration equations were developed with data for 35 stations and tested on data for the remaining seven stations. The relationships developed between mean discharge and channel geometry parameters provide an alternative technique for estimation of mean annual channel discharge. 相似文献
9.
Robert E. Criss 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1607-1615
The rainfall–run‐off convolution integral is analytically solved for several models for the elementary hydrograph. These solutions can be combined with available rainfall frequency analyses to predict flood flows along streams for different recurrence intervals, using no free parameters for gauged streams and one estimable parameter for ungauged streams. Extreme discharge magnitudes at gauged sites can be typically estimated within a factor of two of actual records, using no historical data on extreme flows. The flow predictions reproduce several important characteristics of the flood phenomenon, such as the slope of the regression line between observed extreme flows and basin area on the conventional logQ versus logA plot. Importantly, for the models and data sets investigated, the storm duration of greatest significance to flooding was found to approximate the intrinsic transport timescale of the particular watershed, which increases with basin size. Thus, storms that deliver extraordinary amounts of rainfall over a particular time interval will most greatly activate basins whose time constants approximately equal that interval. This theoretical finding is supported by examination of the regional hydrological response to the massive storms of September 14, 2008, and April 28–30, 2017, which caused extraordinary record flooding of basins of about 5–100 km2 and 500–4,000 km2, respectively, but produced few records in basins that were larger or smaller than those ranges. 相似文献
10.
Design flood estimates for a given return period are required in both gauged and ungauged catchments for hydraulic design and risk assessments. Contrary to classical design estimates, synthetic design hydrographs provide not only information on the peak magnitude of events but also on the corresponding hydrograph volumes together with the hydrograph shapes. In this study, we tested different regionalization approaches to transfer parameters of synthetic design hydrographs from gauged to ungauged catchments. These approaches include classical regionalization methods such as linear regression techniques, spatial methods, and methods based on the formation of homogeneous regions. In addition to these classical approaches, we tested nonlinear regression models not commonly used in hydrological regionalization studies, such as random forest, bagging, and boosting. We found that parameters related to the magnitude of the design event can be regionalized well using both linear and nonlinear regression techniques using catchment area, length of the main channel, maximum precipitation intensity, and relief energy as explanatory variables. The hydrograph shape, however, was found to be more difficult to regionalize due to its high variability within a catchment. Such variability might be better represented by looking at flood-type specific synthetic design hydrographs. 相似文献
11.
A lumped model for streamflow routing in arid ephemeral channels has been developed. The governing equations for movement of flood waves subjected to transmission losses are simplified through a time averaging process to develop an ordinary differential equation describing transmission losses as a function of distance, inflow, channel width, time parameters of flow and effective hydraulic conductivity. The resulting equation has an analytical solution and simulates runoff volume and peak discharge rates for individual storm events. The outflow hydrograph is fairly well approximated with a triangular approximation. The model is simplified and constructed to require a minimum of observed data for calibration. It can also be used for ungauged basins in arid regions through parameterization. 相似文献
12.
The proper assessment of design hydrographs and their main properties (peak, volume and duration) in small and ungauged basins is a key point of many hydrological applications. In general, two types of methods can be used to evaluate the design hydrograph: one approach is based on the statistics of storm events, while the other relies on continuously simulating rainfall‐runoff time series. In the first class of methods, the design hydrograph is obtained by applying a rainfall‐runoff model to a design hyetograph that synthesises the storm event. In the second approach, the design hydrograph is quantified by analysing long synthetic runoff time series that are obtained by transforming synthetic rainfall sequences through a rainfall‐runoff model. These simulation‐based procedures overcome some of the unrealistic hypotheses which characterize the event‐based approaches. In this paper, a simulation experiment is carried out to examine the differences between the two types of methods in terms of the design hydrograph's peak, volume and duration. The results conclude that the continuous simulation methods are preferable because the event‐based approaches tend to underestimate the hydrograph's volume and duration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
13.
G. Ravazzani D. Bocchiola B. Groppelli A. Soncini M.C. Rulli F. Colombo 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1013-1016
AbstractFlood frequency estimation is crucial in both engineering practice and hydrological research. Regional analysis of flood peak discharges is used for more accurate estimates of flood quantiles in ungauged or poorly gauged catchments. This is based on the identification of homogeneous zones, where the probability distribution of annual maximum peak flows is invariant, except for a scale factor represented by an index flood. The numerous applications of this method have highlighted obtaining accurate estimates of index flood as a critical step, especially in ungauged or poorly gauged sections, where direct estimation by sample mean of annual flood series (AFS) is not possible, or inaccurate. Therein indirect methods have to be used. Most indirect methods are based upon empirical relationships that link index flood to hydrological, climatological and morphological catchment characteristics, developed by means of multi-regression analysis, or simplified lumped representation of rainfall–runoff processes. The limits of these approaches are increasingly evident as the size and spatial variability of the catchment increases. In these cases, the use of a spatially-distributed, physically-based hydrological model, and time continuous simulation of discharge can improve estimation of the index flood. This work presents an application of the FEST-WB model for the reconstruction of 29 years of hourly streamflows for an Alpine snow-fed catchment in northern Italy, to be used for index flood estimation. To extend the length of the simulated discharge time series, meteorological forcings given by daily precipitation and temperature at ground automatic weather stations are disaggregated hourly, and then fed to FEST-WB. The accuracy of the method in estimating index flood depending upon length of the simulated series is discussed, and suggestions for use of the methodology provided.
Editor D. Koutsoyiannis 相似文献
14.
Modelling hydrological processes influenced by soil,rock and vegetation in a small karst basin of southwest China 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Hydrological processes in karst basins are controlled by permeable multimedia, consisting of soil pores, epikarst fractures, and underground conduits. Distributed modelling of hydrological dynamics in such heterogeneous hydrogeological conditions is a challenging task. Basing on the multilayer structure of the distributed hydrology‐soil‐vegetation model (DHSVM), a distributed hydrological model for a karst basin was developed by integrating mathematical routings of porous Darcy flow, fissure flow and underground channel flow. Specifically, infiltration and saturated flow movement within epikarst fractures are expressed by the ‘cubic law’ equation which is associated with fractural width, direction, and spacing. A small karst basin located in Guizhou province of southwest China was selected for this hydrological simulation. The model parameters were determined on the basis of field measurement and calibrated against the observed soil moisture contents, vegetation interception, surface runoff, and underground flow discharges from the basin outlet. The results show that due to high permeability of the epikarst zone, a significant amount of surface runoff is only generated after heavy rainfall events during the wet season. Rock exposure and the epikarst zone significantly increase flood discharge and decrease evapotranspiration (ET) loss; the peak flood discharge is directly proportional to the size of the aperture. Distribution of soil moisture content (SMC) primarily depends on topographic variations just after a heavy rainfall, while SMC and actual ET are dominated by land cover after a period of consecutive non‐rainfall days. The new model was able to capture the sharp increase and decrease of the underground streamflow hydrograph, and as such can be used to investigate hydrological effects in such rock features and land covers. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
AbstractThe accurate prediction of hourly runoff discharge in a watershed during heavy rainfall events is of critical importance for flood control and management. This study predicts n-h-ahead runoff discharge in the Sandimen basin in southern Taiwan using a novel hybrid approach which combines a physically-based model (HEC-HMS) with an artificial neural network (ANN) model. Hourly runoff discharge data (1200 datasets) from seven heavy rainfall events were collected for the model calibration (training) and validation. Six statistical indicators (i.e. mean absolute error, root mean square error, coefficient of correlation, error of time to peak discharge, error of peak discharge and coefficient of efficiency) were employed to evaluate the performance. In comparison with the HEC-HMS model, the single ANN model, and the time series forecasting (ARMAX) model, the developed hybrid HEC-HMS–ANN model demonstrates improved accuracy in recursive n-h-ahead runoff discharge prediction, especially for peak flow discharge and time. 相似文献
16.
Flash floods represent one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters worldwide. The hydrological analysis of a flash flood event contributes in the understanding of the runoff creation process. This study presents the analysis of some flash flood events that took place in a complex geomorphological Mediterranean River basin. The objective of the present work is to develop the thresholds for a real‐time flash flood forecasting model in a complex geomorphological watershed, based on high‐frequency data from strategically located hydrological and meteorological telemetric stations. These stations provide hourly real‐time data which were used to determine hydrological and meteorological parameters. The main characteristics of various hydrographs specified in this study were the runoff coefficients, lag time, time to peak, and the maximum potential retention. The estimation of these hydrometeorological parameters provides the necessary information in order to successfully manage flash floods events. Especially, the time to peak is the most significant hydrological parameter that affects the response time of an oncoming flash flood event. A study of the above parameters is essential for the specification of thresholds which are related to the geomorphological characteristics of the river basin, the rainfall accumulation of an event, the rainfall intensity, the threshold runoff through karstic area, the season during which the rainfall takes place and the time intervals between the rainstorms that affect the soil moisture conditions. All these factors are combined into a real‐time‐threshold flash flood prediction model. Historical flash flood events at the downstream are also used for the validation of the model. An application of the proposed model is presented for the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
经验方法研究下垫面变化对洪水的影响 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
1980s以来,人类活动对下垫面的影响加剧,研究下垫面变化对流域产汇流规律的影响具有重要意义.通过对海河流域中紫荆关、阜平两个流域分别用经验方法进行洪水模拟演算,并把洪水资料按照年代不同分时段,建立P+Pa～Rs相关关系图,分析流域下垫面变化对降雨径流相关关系的影响.建立产流量R与洪峰Qm之间的相关关系,通过统计比较不同年代的趋势线发现,在产流量相同情况下,1980s后的洪峰流量较1980s前有所减少,说明海河流域的调蓄作用有增强的趋势.同时建立流域下垫面条件改变后产流量与洪峰变化幅度的相关关系,发现流域产流量变化与洪峰变化呈正相关关系. 相似文献
18.
Weather radar been widely employed to measure precipitation and to predict flood risks. However, it is still not considered accurate enough because of radar errors. Most previous studies have focused primarily on removing errors from the radar data. Therefore, in the current study, we examined the effects of radar rainfall errors on rainfall-runoff simulation using the spatial error model (SEM). SEM was used to synthetically generate random or cross-correlated errors. A number of events were generated to investigate the effect of spatially dependent errors in radar rainfall estimates on runoff simulation. For runoff simulation, the Nam River basin in South Korea was used with the distributed rainfall-runoff model, Vflo?. The results indicated that spatially dependent errors caused much higher variations in peak discharge than independent random errors. To further investigate the effect of the magnitude of cross-correlation among radar errors, different magnitudes of spatial cross-correlations were employed during the rainfall-runoff simulation. The results demonstrated that a stronger correlation led to a higher variation in peak discharge up to the observed correlation structure while a correlation stronger than the observed case resulted in lower variability in peak discharge. We concluded that the error structure in radar rainfall estimates significantly affects predictions of the runoff peak. Therefore, efforts to not only remove the radar rainfall errors, but to also weaken the cross-correlation structure of the errors need to be taken to forecast flood events accurately. 相似文献
19.
High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are used to evaluate the sensitivity of flood and flash flood simulations to spatial aggregation of rainfall and soil properties at catchment scales ranging from 75 to 983 km2. Hydrologic modeling is based on a Hortonian infiltration model and a network-based representation of hillslope and channel flow. The investigation focuses on three extreme flood and flash flood events occurred on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy, which are analysed by using four aggregation lengths ranging from 1 to 16 km. The influence of rainfall spatial aggregation is examined by using the flow distance as a spatial coordinate, hence emphasising the role of river network in the averaging of space–time rainfall. The effects of reduced and distorted rainfall spatial variability on peak discharge have been found particularly severe for the flash flood events, with peak errors up to 35% for rainfall aggregation of 16 km and at 983 km2 catchment size. Effects are particularly remarkable when significant structured rainfall variability combines with relatively important infiltration volumes due to dry initial conditions, as this emphasises the non-linear character of the rainfall–runoff relationship. In general, these results confirm that the correct estimate of rainfall volume is not enough for the accurate reproduction of flash flood events characterised by large and structured rainfall spatial variability, even at catchment scales around 250 km2. However, accurate rainfall volume estimation may suffice for less spatially variable flood events. Increasing the soil properties aggregation length exerts similar effects on peak discharge errors as increasing the rainfall aggregation length, for the cases considered here and after rescaling to preserve the rainfall volume. Moreover, peak discharge errors are roughly proportional to runoff volume errors, which indicates that the shape of the flood wave is influenced in a limited way by modifying the detail of the soil property spatial representation. Conversely, rainfall aggregation may exert a pronounced influence on the discharge peak by reshaping the spatial organisation of the runoff volumes and without a comparable impact on the runoff volumes. 相似文献
20.
Distributed hydrological modelling using weather radar in gauged and ungauged basins 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
Distributed hydrological modelling using space–time estimates of rainfall from weather radar provides a natural approach to area-wide flood forecasting and warning at any location, whether gauged or ungauged. However, radar estimates of rainfall may lack consistent, quantitative accuracy. Also, the formulation of hydrological models in distributed form may be problematic due to process complexity and scaling issues. Here, the aim is to first explore ways of improving radar rainfall accuracy through combination with raingauge network data via integrated multiquadric methods. When the resulting gridded rainfall estimates are employed as input to hydrological models, the simulated river flows show marked improvements when compared to using radar data alone. Secondly, simple forms of physical–conceptual distributed hydrological model are considered, capable of exploiting spatial datasets on topography and, where necessary, land-cover, soil and geology properties. The simplest Grid-to-Grid model uses only digital terrain data to delineate flow pathways and to control runoff production, the latter by invoking a probability-distributed relation linking terrain slope to soil absorption capacity. Model performance is assessed over nested river basins in northwest England, employing a lumped model as a reference. When the distributed model is used with the gridded radar-based rainfall estimators, it shows particular benefits for forecasting at ungauged locations. 相似文献