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1.
Kee‐Won Seong 《水文研究》2014,28(6):2881-2896
A general form of formula is presented for the rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) relationship. This formula is derived from the nearly normal probability distribution function of transformed intensities. In order to transform the raw intensities, a correcting non‐constant spread technique, the Kruskal–Wallis statistic, and the Box–Cox transformation are adopted. These transformations enable to express a simpler model for the IDF formula that agrees well with traditional IDF relationships. Since the proposed method allows the estimation of any percentile value of intensities with a single equation, the intensity percentile at arbitrary duration can be generated easily. The validity of the formula derived by means of the proposed method is assessed using data from major weather stations in Korea. The results show that the percentile intensities produced using the proposed method are in good agreement with those of traditional frequency analysis. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Most of meteorological stations in Chile register rainfall amounts once every 24 h. The creation of intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves requires continuous recorded data, and this insufficiency of proper instrumentation has resulted in a lack of IDF curves nationwide. The objective of this study is to further develop and evaluate the feasibility of a new method to estimate IDF curves in ungauged stations under Mediterranean climates of central Chile. A technique used to address this problem is the use of a storm index (SI), also known as the ‘K’ method, which allows the construction of IDF curves from stations with discontinuous data, by extrapolating data from stations with continuous records, as long as daily rainfall intensities for both stations differ by less than 2 mm h?1. To test the applicability of this method, SI values were calculated for 40 meteorological stations located throughout Central Chile (latitudes 30°S to 40°S). The extrapolated IDF curves were then compared with observed data, and the goodness of fit was determined. The results indicate that the storm index method can adequately estimate hourly IDF curve values for stations lacking of continuous rainfall data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Hans Van de Vyver 《水文研究》2018,32(11):1635-1647
Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are a standard tool in urban water resources engineering and management. They express how return levels of extreme rainfall intensity vary with duration. The simple scaling property of extreme rainfall intensity, with respect to duration, determines the form of IDF relationships. It is supposed that the annual maximum intensity follows the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. As well known, for simple scaling processes, the location parameter and scale parameter of the GEV distribution obey a power law with the same exponent. Although, the simple scaling hypothesis is commonly used as a suitable working assumption, the multiscaling approach provides a more general framework. We present a new IDF relationship that has been formulated on the basis of the multiscaling property. It turns out that the GEV parameters (location and scale) have a different scaling exponent. Next, we apply a Bayesian framework to estimate the multiscaling GEV model and to choose the most appropriate model. It is shown that the model performance increases when using the multiscaling approach. The new model for IDF curves reproduces the data very well and has a reasonable degree of complexity without overfitting on the data.  相似文献   

4.
Rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are used in the design of urban infrastructure. Their estimation is based on rainfall frequency analysis, usually performed on rainfall records from a single gauged station. However, available at‐site record length is often too short to provide accurate estimates for long return periods. In the present study, a general framework for pooled rainfall frequency analysis based on the index‐event model is proposed for IDF estimation at gauged stations. Pooling group formation is defined by the region of influence approach on the basis of the geographical distance similarity measure. Several pooled approaches are defined and evaluated by a procedure through which quantile estimation and uncertainty are assessed. Alternate approaches for the definition of a pooling group are based on different criteria regarding initial pooling group size (and the relationship between size and return period), approaches for assessing pooling group homogeneity, and the use of macroregions in pooling group formation. The proposed framework is applied to identify the preferred approach for pooled rainfall intensity frequency analysis in Canada. Pooled approaches are found to provide more precise estimates than the at‐site approach, especially for long return periods. Pooled parent distribution selection supported the use of the generalized extreme value distribution across the country. Recommendations for pooling group formation include increasing the pooling group size with increases in return period and identifying an appropriate trade‐off between pooling group homogeneity and size for long return periods.  相似文献   

5.
Dynamic relationships among rainfall patterns, soil water distribution, and plant growth are crucial for sustainable conservation of soil and water resources in water‐limited ecosystems. Spatial and temporal variation in deep soil water content at a watershed scale have not yet been characterized adequately due to the lack of deep soil water data. Deep soil–water storage (SWS) up to a depth of 5 m (n = 73) was measured at 19 sampling occasions at the LaoYeManQu watershed on the Chinese Loess Plateau (CLP). At a depth of 0–1.5 m, the annual mean SWS was highly correlated with rain intensity, and the correlation decreased with depth, but within the layers at 1.5–5.0 m, the changes in SWS indicated a lag between precipitation and the replenishment of soil water. Geostatistical parameters of SWS were also highly dependent on depth, and the mean SWS presented similar spatial structures in two adjacent layers. Temporal stability of SWS as indicated by mean relative difference, standard deviation of the relative difference (SDRD), and mean absolute bias error (MABE) was significantly weaker at the shallow than at deeper layers. Soil separates and organic carbon content controlled the spatial pattern of SWS at the watershed scale. One representative location (Site 57) was identified to estimate the mean SWS in the 1‐ to 5‐m layer of the watershed. Semivariograms of the SDRD and MABE were best fitted by an isotropic spherical model, and their spatial distributions were depth‐dependent. Both temporal stability and spatial variability of SWS increased over depth. This study is helpful for deep SWS estimation and sustainable management of soil and water on the CLP, and for other similar regions around the world.  相似文献   

6.
In this work, the multifractal properties of hourly rainfall data recorded at a location in Southern Spain have been related to the scale properties of the corresponding intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves. Four parametric models for the IDF curves have been fitted to the quantiles of rainfall obtained using the generalized Pareto frequency distribution function with the extreme data series obtained for the same place. The scaling of the rainfall intensity moments has been analysed, and the empirical moments scaling exponent function has been obtained. The corresponding values of q1 and γ1 have been empirical and theoretically calculated and compared with some characteristics of the different IDF models. Thus, the scaling behaviour of IDF curves has been analysed, and the best model has been selected. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
This study delineated spatially and temporally variable runoff generation areas in the Sand Mountain region pasture of North Alabama under natural rainfall conditions, and demonstrated that hydrologic connectivity is important for generating hillslope response when infiltration‐excess (IE) runoff mechanism dominates. Data from six rainfall events (13·7–32·3 mm) on an intensively instrumented pasture hillslope (0·12 ha) were analysed. Analysis of data from surface runoff sensors, tipping bucket rain gauge and HS‐flume demonstrated spatial and temporal variability in runoff generation areas. Results showed that the maximum runoff generation area, which contributed to runoff at the outlet of the hillslope, varied between 67 and 100%. Furthermore, because IE was the main runoff generation mechanism on the hillslope, the data showed that as the rainfall intensity changed during a rainfall event, the runoff generation areas expanded or contracted. During rainfall events with high‐intensity short‐ to medium‐duration, 4–8% of total rainfall was converted to runoff at the outlet. Rainfall events with medium‐ to low‐intensity, medium‐duration were found less likely to generate runoff at the outlet. In situ soil hydraulic conductivity (k) was measured across the hillslope, which confirmed its effect on hydrologic connectivity of runoff generation areas. Combined surface runoff sensor and k‐interpolated data clearly showed that during a rainfall event, lower k areas generate runoff first, and then, depending on rainfall intensity, runoff at the outlet is generated by hydrologically connected areas. It was concluded that in IE‐runoff‐dominated areas, rainfall intensity and k can explain hydrologic response. The study demonstrated that only connected areas of low k values generate surface runoff during high‐intensity rainfall events. Identification of these areas would serve as an important foundation for controlling nonpoint source pollutant transport, especially phosphorus. The best management practices can be developed and implemented to reduce transport of phosphorus from these hydrologically connected areas. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Rainfall and flood data are relatively sparse in semi‐arid areas; hence there have been relatively few investigations into the relationships between rainfall inputs and flood generation in these environments. Previous work has shown that flood properties are influenced by a combination of precipitation characteristics including amount, intensity, duration and spatial distribution. Therefore floods may be produced by high intensity, short duration storms, or longer duration, low intensity rainfall. Most of this research has been undertaken in small catchments in either hyper‐arid or relatively high rainfall Mediterranean climates. This paper presents results from a 6 year data record in south‐east Spain from research conducted in two basins, the Rambla Nogalte (171 km2) and the Rambla de Torrealvilla (200 km2). Data cover an area of approximately 500 km2 and an annual average rainfall of 300 mm. At coarse temporal resolutions gauges spread over large areas record similar patterns of rainfall, although spells of rain show much more complexity; pulses of rain within storms can vary considerably in total rainfall, intensity and duration over the same area. The analysis for south‐east Spain shows that most storms occur over a period of less than 24 h, but that the number of rainfall events declines as the duration exceeds 8 h. This is at odds with data on floods for the study area suggesting that they are produced by storms lasting longer than 18 h. However, one flood event was produced by a very short (15 min) storm with high intensity rainfall. Most floods tended to occur in May/June or September, which coincides with wetter months of the year (September, October, December and May). Floods are also more highly related to the total rainfall occurring in a spell of rain, than to intensity. The complexity of storm rainfall increases with the storm total, which makes it difficult to generalize on the importance of rainfall intensity for flood generation. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Numerous studies have examined the event‐specific hydrologic response of hillslopes and catchments to rainfall. Knowledge gaps, however, remain regarding the relative influence of different meteorological factors on hydrologic response, the predictability of hydrologic response from site characteristics, or even the best metrics to use to effectively capture the temporal variability of hydrologic response. This study aimed to address those knowledge gaps by focusing on 21 sites with contrasting climate, topography, geology, soil properties, and land cover. High‐frequency rainfall and discharge records were analysed, resulting in the delineation of over 1,600 rainfall–runoff events, which were described using a suite of hydrologic response metrics and meteorological factors. Univariate and multivariate statistical techniques were then applied to synthesize the information conveyed by the computed metrics and factors, notably measures of central tendency and variability, variation partitioning, partial correlations, and principal component analysis. Results showed that some response magnitude metrics generally reported in the literature (e.g., runoff ratio and area‐normalized peak discharge) did not vary significantly among sites. The temporal variability in site‐specific hydrologic response was often attributable to the joint influence of storage‐driven (e.g., total event rainfall and antecedent precipitation) and intensity‐driven (e.g., rainfall intensity and antecedent potential evapotranspiration) meteorological factors. Mean annual temperature and potential evapotranspiration at a given site appeared to be good predictors of hydrologic response timing (e.g., response lag and lag to peak). Response timing metrics, particularly those associated with response initiation, were also identified as the metrics most critical for capturing intrasite response variability. This study therefore contributes to the growing knowledge on event‐specific hydrologic response by highlighting the importance of response timing metrics and intensity‐driven meteorological factors, which are infrequently discussed in the literature. As few correlations were found between physiographic variables and response metrics, more data‐driven studies are recommended to further our understanding of landscape–hydrology interactions.  相似文献   

10.
Estimates of changes in design rainfall values for Canada   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  
Annual maximum rainfall data from 51 stations in Canada were analyzed for trends and changes by using the Mann–Kendall trend test and a bootstrap resampling approach, respectively. Rainfall data were analyzed for nine durations ranging from 5 min to 24 h. The data analyzed are typically used in the development of intensity‐duration‐frequency (IDF) curves, which are used for estimating design rainfall values that form an input for the design of critical water infrastructure. The results reveal more increasing than decreasing trends and changes in the data with more increasing changes and larger changes, noted for the longer rainfall durations. The results also indicate that a traditional trend test may not be sufficient when the interest is in identifying changes in design rainfall quantiles. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The Sakuma–Tenryu district consists mainly of pelitic and basic schists. Its metamorphic sequence has been divided into two units, the Shirakura and the Sejiri units. We carried out K–Ar analyses of phengite separates and X‐ray diffraction analyses of carbonaceous materials from the pelitic schists of both units. The age–d002 relationships show that the ages become older (66–73 Ma) in the Shirakura unit and younger (57–48 Ma) in the latter with increasing metamorphic temperature. The former has a positive relationship observed in the Sanbagawa meta‐Accretionary Complex (meta‐AC) (Sanbagawa metamorphic belt sensu stricto) in central Shikoku and the latter, a negative one in the Shimanto meta‐AC (a subunit of traditional Sanbagawa belt) of the Kanto Mountains. These contrasting age–temperature relationships are due to different tectonic styles relating to the exhumation of the metamorphic sequences. The duration from the peak metamorphism to the closure of the phengite K–Ar system was significantly different between the two metamorphic sequences: longer than 31 my in the Sanbagawa meta‐AC and shorter than 13 my in the Shimanto meta‐AC. The different natures of subducted plate boundaries may cause the different exhumation processes of metamorphic belts.  相似文献   

12.
A procedure combining the Soil Conservation Service‐Curve Number (SCS‐CN) method and the Green–Ampt (GA) infiltration equation was recently developed to overcome some of the drawbacks of the classic SCS‐CN approach when estimating the volume of surface runoff at a sub‐daily time resolution. The rationale of this mixed procedure, named Curve Number for Green–Ampt (CN4GA), is to use the GA infiltration model to distribute the total volume of the net hyetograph (rainfall excess) provided by the SCS‐CN method over time. The initial abstraction and the total volume of rainfall given by the SCS‐CN method are used to identify the ponding time and to quantify the hydraulic conductivity parameter of the GA equation. In this paper, a sensitivity analysis of the mixed CN4GA parameters is presented with the aim to identify conditions where the mixed procedure can be effectively used within the Prediction in Ungauged Basin perspective. The effects exerted by changes in selected input parameters on the outputs are evaluated using rectangular and triangular synthetic hyetographs as well as 100 maximum annual storms selected from synthetic rainfall time series. When applied to extreme precipitation events, which are characterized by predominant peaks of rainfall, the CN4GA appears to be rather insensitive to the input hydraulic parameters of the soil, which is an interesting feature of the CN4GA approach and makes it an ideal candidate for the rainfall excess estimation at sub‐daily temporal resolution at ungauged sites. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Seth Rose 《水文研究》2011,25(6):901-914
A method was developed to investigate the long‐term (months‐to‐years) effects (both magnitude and duration) of antecedent rainfall upon subsequent runoff coefficients (RCs) or runoff/rainfall ratios. The method was applied to a four‐state region (Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia) within the southeastern Piedmont Province of the United States and incorporated a 59‐year data set of 19 United States Geological Survey stream gages and 57 National Climatic Data Center rain gages. The method was designed to facilitate statistical comparisons [Mann–Whitney rank sum tests] between various groups of normalized runoff coefficients (NRCs) representing 6–36 month periods which differed in terms of antecedent rainfall conditions. The results of this study show that under all subsequent rainfall conditions, with the exception of excess rainfall, a 1‐year period of antecedent drought lowered NRCs for at least 1 year following the drought. The principal finding of this study is that a year‐long drought period within the southeastern Piedmont Province lowers NRCs by ～25% during the following year when rainfall returns to normal. In most cases, RCs are significantly lower during the second year following a drought than they would be when anteceded by normal rainfall; however, the effects of drought wane during this period. This is a statistical and regional method that can be modified to other study areas; however, it cannot be used to predict storm‐event rainfall–runoff relationships for any specific basin. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
The Green–Ampt infiltration equation is an incomplete governing equation for rainfall infiltration due to the absence of an inertia term. The estimation of the capillary pressure head at the wetting front is difficult to determine. Thus, a major limitation of the Green–Ampt model is the constant, non‐zero surface ponding depth. This paper proposes an integrated rainfall infiltration model based on the Green–Ampt model and the SCS‐CN model. It achieves a complete governing equation for rainfall infiltration by momentum balance and the water budget based on the Green–Ampt assumption, and uses the curve number from the SCS‐CN method to calculate the initial abstraction, which is used as a basic parameter for the governing equation of the intensity of rainfall loss during the runoff period. The integrated rainfall infiltration model resolves the dilemma for capillary pressure head estimation, overcomes the limitation of constant, non‐zero surface ponding depth, and facilitates the calculation of runoff for individual flood simulations. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
This paper reports the results of an investigation into flood simulation by areal rainfall estimated from the combination of gauged and radar rainfalls and a rainfall–runoff model on the Anseong‐cheon basin in the southern part of Korea. The spatial and temporal characteristics and behaviour of rainfall are analysed using various approaches combining radar and rain gauges: (1) using kriging of the rain gauge alone; (2) using radar data alone; (3) using mean field bias (MFB) of both radar and rain gauges; and (4) using conditional merging technique (CM) of both radar and rain gauges. To evaluate these methods, statistics and hyetograph for rain gauges and radar rainfalls were compared using hourly radar rainfall data from the Imjin‐river, Gangwha, rainfall radar site, Korea. Then, in order to evaluate the performance of flood estimates using different rainfall estimation methods, rainfall–runoff simulation was conducted using the physics‐based distributed hydrologic model, Vflo?. The flood runoff hydrograph was used to compare the calculated hydrographs with the observed one. Results show that the rainfall field estimated by CM methods improved flood estimates, because it optimally combines rainfall fields representing actual spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
A new predictor–corrector (P–C) method for multi‐site sub‐structure pseudo‐dynamic (PSD) test is proposed. This method is a mixed time integration method in which computational components separable from experimental components are solved by implicit time integration method (Newmark β method). The experiments are performed quasi‐statically based on explicit prediction of displacement. The proposed P–C method has an important advantage as it does not require the determination of the initial stiffness values of experimental components and is thus suitable for representing elastic and inelastic systems. A parameter relating to quality of displacement prediction at boundaries nodes is introduced. This parameter is determined such that P–C method can be applicable to many practical problems. Error‐propagation characteristics of P–C method are also presented. A series of examples including linear and non‐linear soil–foundation–structure interaction problem demonstrate the performance of the proposed method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Establishing the rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) relations by the conventional method, the use of parametric distribution models has the advantage of automatic compliance of monotonicity condition of rainfall intensity and frequency. However, fitting rainfall data to a distribution separately by individual duration may possibly produce undulation and crossover of IDF curves which does not comply physical reality. This frequently occurs when rainfall record length is relatively short which often is the case. To tackle this problem this study presents a methodological framework that integrates the third-order polynomial normal transform (TPNT) with the least squares (LS) method to establish rainfall IDF relations by simultaneously considering multi-duration rainfall data. The constraints to preserve the monotonicity and non-crossover in the IDF relations can be incorporated easily in the LS-based TPNT framework. Hourly rainfall data at Zhongli rain gauge station in Taiwan with 27-year record are used to establish rainfall IDF relations and to illustrate the proposed methodology. Numerical investigation indicates that the undulation and crossover behavior of IDF curves can be effectively circumvented by the proposed approach to establish reasonable IDF relations.  相似文献   

18.
Abstract

Southern Ontario, Canada, has been impacted in recent years by many heavy rainfall and flooding events that have exceeded existing historical estimates of infrastructure design rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) values. These recent events and the limited number of short-duration recording raingauges have prompted the need to research the climatology of heavy rainfall events within the study area, review the existing design IDF methodologies, and evaluate alternative approaches to traditional point-based heavy rainfall IDF curves, such as regional IDF design values. The use of additional data and the regional frequency analysis methodology were explored for the study area, with the objective of validating identified clusters or homogeneous regions of extreme rainfall amounts through Ward's method. As the results illustrate, nine homogeneous regions were identified in Southern Ontario using the annual maximum series (AMS) for daily and 24-h rainfall data from climate and rate-of-rainfall or tipping bucket raingauge (TBRG) stations, respectively. In most cases, the generalized extreme value and logistic distributions were identified as the statistical distributions that provide the best fit for the 24-h and sub-daily rainfall data in the study area. A connection was observed between extreme rainfall variability, temporal scale of heavy rainfall events and location of each homogeneous region. Moreover, the analysis indicated that scaling factors cannot be used reliably to estimate sub-daily and sub-hourly values from 24- and 1-h data in Southern Ontario.

Citation Paixao, E., Auld, H., Mirza, M.M.Q., Klaassen, J. & Shephard, M.W. (2011) Regionalization of heavy rainfall to improve climatic design values for infrastructure: case study in Southern Ontario, Canada. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(7), 1067–1089.  相似文献   

19.
We present a new LA–ICP–MS system for zircon fission‐track (FT) and U–Pb double dating, whereby a femtosecond laser combined with galvanometric optics simultaneously ablates multiple spots to measure average surface U contents. The U contents of zircon measured by LA–ICP–MS and standardized with the NIST SRM610 glass are comparable to those measured by the induced FT method, and have smaller analytical errors. LA–ICP–MS FT dating of seven zircon samples including three IUGS age standards is as accurate as the external detector method, but can give a higher‐precision age depending on the counting statistics of the U content measurement. Double dating of the IUGS age standards gives FT and U–Pb ages that are in agreement. A chip of the Nancy 91500 zircon has a homogeneous U content of 84 ppm, suggesting the possibility of using this zircon as a matrix‐matched U‐standard for FT dating. When using the Nancy 91500 zircon as a U‐standard, a zeta calibration value of 42–43 year cm2 for LA–ICP–MS FT dating is obtained. While this value is strictly valid only for the particular session, it can serve as a reference for other studies.  相似文献   

20.
Drought hotspot identification requires continuous drought monitoring and spatial risk assessment. The present study analysed drought events in the agriculture‐dominated mid‐Mahanadi River Basin in Odisha, India, using crop water stress as a drought indicator. This drought index incorporated different factors that affect crop water deficit such as the cropping pattern, soil characteristics, and surface soil moisture. The drought monitoring framework utilized a relevance vector machine model‐based classification that provided the uncertainty associated with drought categorization. Using the proposed framework, drought hotspots are identified in the study region and compared with indices based on precipitation and soil moisture. Further, a bivariate copula is employed to model the agricultural drought characteristics and develop the drought severity–duration–frequency (S–D–F) relationships. The drought hotspot maps and S–D–F curves are developed for different locations in the region. These provided useful information on the site‐specific drought patterns and the characteristics of the devastating droughts of 2002 and 2012, characterized by an average drought duration of 7 months at several locations. The site‐specific risk of short‐ and long‐term agricultural droughts are then investigated using the conditional copula. The results suggest that the conditional return periods and the S–D–F curves are valuable tools to assess the spatial variability of drought risk in the region.  相似文献   

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