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1.
Mountain water resources management often requires hydrological models that need to handle both snow and ice melt. In this study, we compared two different model types for a partly glacierized watershed in central Switzerland: (1) an energy‐balance model primarily designed for snow simulations; and (2) a temperature‐index model developed for glacier simulations. The models were forced with data extrapolated from long‐term measurement records to mimic the typical input data situation for climate change assessments. By using different methods to distribute precipitation, we also assessed how various snow cover patterns influenced the modelled runoff. The energy‐balance model provided accurate discharge estimations during periods dominated by snow melt, but dropped in performance during the glacier ablation season. The glacier melt rates were sensitive to the modelled snow cover patterns and to the parameterization of turbulent heat fluxes. In contrast, the temperature‐index model poorly reproduced snow melt runoff, but provided accurate discharge estimations during the periods dominated by glacier ablation, almost independently of the method used to distribute precipitation. Apparently, the calibration of this model compensated for the inaccurate precipitation input with biased parameters. Our results show that accurate estimates of snow cover patterns are needed either to correctly constrain the melt parameters of the temperature‐index model or to ensure appropriate glacier surface albedos required by the energy‐balance model. Thus, particularly when only distant meteorological stations are available, carefully selected input data and efficient extrapolation methods of meteorological variables improve the reliability of runoff simulations in high alpine watersheds. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
The topographically explicit distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) is used to simulate hydrological effects of changes in land cover for four catchments, ranging from 27 to 1033 km2, within the Columbia River basin. Surface fluxes (stream flow and evapotranspiration) and state variables (soil moisture and snow water equivalent) corresponding to historical (1900) and current (1990) vegetation are compared. In addition a sensitivity analysis, where the catchments are covered entirely by conifers at different maturity stages, was conducted. In general, lower leaf‐area index (LAI) resulted in higher snow water equivalent, more stream flow and less evapotranspiration. Comparisons with the macroscale variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model, which parameterizes, rather than explicitly represents, topographic effects, show that runoff predicted by DHSVM is more sensitive to land‐cover changes than is runoff predicted by VIC. This is explained by model differences in soil parameters and evapotranspiration calculations, and by the more explicit representation of saturation excess in DHSVM and its higher sensitivity to LAI changes in the calculation of evapotranspiration. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The distributed hydrology–soil–vegetation model (DHSVM) was used to study the potential impacts of projected future land cover and climate change on the hydrology of the Puget Sound basin, Washington, in the mid‐twenty‐first century. A 60‐year climate model output, archived for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), was statistically downscaled and used as input to DHSVM. From the DHSVM output, we extracted multi‐decadal averages of seasonal streamflow, annual maximum flow, snow water equivalent (SWE), and evapotranspiration centred around 2030 and 2050. Future land cover was represented by a 2027 projection, which was extended to 2050, and DHSVM was run (with current climate) for these future land cover projections. In general, the climate change signal alone on sub‐basin streamflow was evidenced primarily through changes in the timing of winter and spring runoff, and slight increases in the annual runoff. Runoff changes in the uplands were attributable both to climate (increased winter precipitation, less snow) and land cover change (mostly reduced vegetation maturity). The most climatically sensitive parts of the uplands were in areas where the current winter precipitation is in the rain–snow transition zone. Changes in land cover were generally more important than climate change in the lowlands, where a substantial change to more urbanized land use and increased runoff was predicted. Both the annual total and seasonal distribution of freshwater flux to Puget Sound are more sensitive to climate change impacts than to land cover change, primarily because most of the runoff originates in the uplands. Both climate and land cover change slightly increase the annual freshwater flux to Puget Sound. Changes in the seasonal distribution of freshwater flux are mostly related to climate change, and consist of double‐digit increases in winter flows and decreases in summer and fall flows. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
To improve spring runoff forecasts from subalpine catchments, detailed spatial simulations of the snow cover in this landscape is obligatory. For more than 30 years, the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL has been conducting extensive snow cover observations in the subalpine watershed Alptal (central Switzerland). This paper summarizes the conclusions from past snow studies in the Alptal valley and presents an analysis of 14 snow courses located at different exposures and altitudes, partly in open areas and partly in forest. The long‐term performance of a physically based numerical snow–vegetation–atmosphere model (COUP) was tested with these snow‐course measurements. One single parameter set with meteorological input variables corrected to the prevailing local conditions resulted in a convincing snow water equivalent (SWE) simulation at most sites and for various winters with a wide range of snow conditions. The snow interception approach used in this study was able to explain the forest effect on the SWE as observed on paired snow courses. Finally, we demonstrated for a meadow and a forest site that a successful simulation of the snowpack yields appropriate melt rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
S. Pohl  P. Marsh 《水文研究》2006,20(8):1773-1792
Arctic spring landscapes are usually characterized by a mosaic of coexisting snow‐covered and bare ground patches. This phenomenon has major implications for hydrological processes, including meltwater production and runoff. Furthermore, as indicated by aircraft observations, it affects land‐surface–atmosphere exchanges, leading to a high degree of variability in surface energy terms during melt. The heterogeneity and related differences when certain parts of the landscape become snow free also affects the length of the growing season and the carbon cycle. Small‐scale variability in arctic snowmelt is addressed here by combining a spatially distributed end‐of‐winter snow cover with simulations of variable snowmelt energy balance factors for the small arctic catchment of Trail Valley Creek (63 km2). Throughout the winter, snow in arctic tundra basins is redistributed by frequent blowing snow events. Areas of above‐ or below‐average end‐of‐winter snow water equivalents were determined from land‐cover classifications, topography, land‐cover‐based snow surveys, and distributed surface wind‐field simulations. Topographic influences on major snowmelt energy balance factors (solar radiation and turbulent fluxes of sensible and latent heat) were modelled on a small‐scale (40 m) basis. A spatially variable complete snowmelt energy balance was subsequently computed and applied to the distributed snow cover, allowing the simulation of the progress of melt throughout the basin. The emerging patterns compared very well visually to snow cover observations from satellite images and aerial photographs. Results show the relative importance of variable end‐of‐winter snow cover, spatially distributed melt energy fluxes, and local advection processes for the development of a patchy snow cover. This illustrates that the consideration of these processes is crucial for an accurate determination of snow‐covered areas, as well as the location, timing, and amount of meltwater release from arctic catchments, and should, therefore, be included in hydrological models. Furthermore, the study shows the need for a subgrid parameterization of these factors in the land surface schemes of larger scale climate models. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
An analysis of the hydrological effects of vegetation changes in the Columbia River basin over the last century was performed using two land cover scenarios. The first was a reconstruction of historical land cover vegetation, c. 1900, as estimated by the federal Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project (ICBEMP). The second was current land cover as estimated from remote sensing data for 1990. Simulations were performed using the variable infiltration capacity (VIC) hydrological model, applied at one‐quarter degree spatial resolution (approximately 500 km2 grid cell area) using hydrometeorological data for a 10 year period starting in 1979, and the 1900 and current vegetation scenarios. The model represents surface hydrological fluxes and state variables, including snow accumulation and ablation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture and runoff production. Simulated daily hydrographs of naturalized streamflow (reservoir effects removed) were aggregated to monthly totals and compared for nine selected sub‐basins. The results show that, hydrologically, the most important vegetation‐related change has been a general tendency towards decreased vegetation maturity in the forested areas of the basin. This general trend represents a balance between the effects of logging and fire suppression. In those areas where forest maturity has been reduced as a result of logging, wintertime maximum snow accumulations, and hence snow available for runoff during the spring melt season, have tended to increase, and evapotranspiration has decreased. The reverse has occurred in areas where fire suppression has tended to increase vegetation maturity, although the logging effect appears to dominate for most of the sub‐basins evaluated. Predicted streamflow changes were largest in the Mica and Corralin sub‐basins in the northern and eastern headwaters region; in the Priest Rapids sub‐basin, which drains the east slopes of the Cascade Mountains; and in the Ice Harbor sub‐basin, which receives flows primarily from the Salmon and Clearwater Rivers of Idaho and western Montana. For these sub‐basins, annual average increases in runoff ranged from 4·2 to 10·7% and decreases in evapotranspiration ranged from 3·1 to 12·1%. In comparison with previous studies of individual, smaller sized watersheds, the modelling approach used in this study provides predictions of hydrological fluxes that are spatially continuous throughout the interior Columbia River basin. It thus provides a broad‐scale framework for assessing the vulnerability of watersheds to altered streamflow regimes attributable to changes in land cover that occur over large geographical areas and long time‐frames. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
The impacts of land use intensity, here defined as the degree of imperviousness, on stormwater volumes, runoff rates and their temporal occurrence were studied at three urban catchments in a cold region in southern Finland. The catchments with ‘High’ and ‘Intermediate’ land use intensity, located around the city centre, were characterized by 89% and 62% impervious surfaces, respectively. The ‘Low’ catchment was situated in a residential area of 19% imperviousness. During a 2‐year study period with divergent weather conditions, the generation of stormwater correlated positively with catchment imperviousness: The largest annual stormwater volumes and the highest runoff coefficients and number of stormwater runoff events occurred in the High catchment. Land use intensity also altered the seasonality of stormwater runoff: Most stormwater in the High catchment was generated during the warm period of the year, whereas the largest contribution to annual stormwater generation in the Low catchment took place during the cold period. In the two most urbanized catchments, spring snow melt occurred a few weeks earlier than in the Low catchment. The rate of stormwater runoff in the High and Intermediate catchments was higher in summer than during spring snow melt, and summer runoff rates in these more urbanized catchments were several times higher than in the Low catchment. Our study suggests that the effects of land use intensity on stormwater runoff are season dependent in cold climates and that cold seasons diminish the differences between land use intensities. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
This study investigated whether the regional hydro-ecological simulation system RHESSys is a suitable tool for long-term global change impact studies under selected climatic conditions of Europe, taking advantage of the strongly varying climate along elevational gradients in mountain regions. We performed a validation of RHESSys using daily, monthly and yearly data on (1) streamflow and snow cover in five Alpine catchments and (2) water and carbon fluxes at 15 EUROFLUX sites. The simulation results generally agreed well with observations. RHESSys reasonably reproduced daily and monthly streamflow, as well as the seasonal cycle and amplitude of typical Alpine discharge regimes. Furthermore, RHESSys was capable of capturing the key features of the carbon cycle of various forested ecosystems, including significant differences between managed and close-to-natural forests, and more subtle distinctions between coniferous and deciduous systems. Our analyses confirmed that RHESSys is a suitable tool for studying global change impacts on mountain hydrology. Regarding the simulation of the carbon cycle, this investigation detected some data and model limitations that are discussed in detail. Finally, suggestions for model improvements are made, mainly concerning the formulations of decomposition and respiration rates in biogeochemical models. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Snow variability is an integrated indicator of climate change, and it has important impacts on runoff regimes and water availability in high‐altitude catchments. Remote sensing techniques can make it possible to quantitatively detect the snow cover changes and associated hydrological effects in those poorly gauged regions. In this study, the spatial–temporal variations of snow cover and snow melting time in the Tuotuo River basin, which is the headwater of the Yangtze River, were evaluated based on satellite information from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer snow cover product, and the snow melting equivalent and its contribution to the total runoff and baseflow were estimated by using degree–day model. The results showed that the snow cover percentage and the tendency of snow cover variability increased with rising altitude. From 2000 to 2012, warmer and wetter climate change resulted in an increase of the snow cover area. Since the 1960s, the start time for snow melt has become earlier by 0.9–3 days/10a and the end time of snow melt has become later by 0.6–2.3 days/10a. Under the control of snow cover and snow melting time, the equivalent of snow melting runoff in the Tuotuo River basin has been fluctuating. The average contributions of snowmelt to baseflow and total runoff were 19.6% and 6.8%, respectively. Findings from this study will serve as a reference for future research in areas where observational data are deficient and for planning of future water management strategies for the source region of the Yangtze River. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
ABSTRACT

Hydrological processes in hilly watersheds are significantly affected by variations in elevation; however, the hydrological functions of different vertical vegetation belts, have rarely been reported. The distributed hydrological model WEP-L (Water and Energy transfer Process in Large river basins) was applied to analyse vertical variations in the hydrological processes of Qingshui River basin (QRB), Wutai Mountain (altitude: 3058 m a.s.l.), China. The results show that the highest ratio of evapotranspiration to precipitation occurs at 1800 m a.s.l. Below 1800 m, evapotranspiration is mainly controlled by precipitation, and in regions above1800 m it is controlled by energy. The runoff coefficients for different vertical vegetation belts may be ranked as follows: farmland > grassland > subalpine meadow > evergreen coniferous shrub forest > deciduous broad-leaved forest. Grassland is the largest runoff production area, contributing approximately 39.10% to the annual water yield of the QRB. The runoff from forested land decreased to a greater extent than the grassland runoff. Increasing forest cover may increase evapotranspiration and reduce runoff. These results are important, not only for further understanding of the hydrological mechanisms in this basin, but also for implementing the sustainable management of water resources and ecosystems in other mountainous regions.  相似文献   

11.
Understanding how land cover change will impact water resources in snow-dominated regions is of critical importance as these locations produce disproportionate runoff relative to their land area. We coupled a land cover evolution model with a spatially explicit, physics-based, watershed process model to simulate land cover change and its impact on the water balance in a 5.0 km2 headwater catchment spanning the alpine–subalpine transition on the Colorado Front Range. We simulated two potential futures both with greater air temperature (+4°C/century) and more precipitation (+15%/century, MP) or less precipitation (−15%/century, LP) from 2000 to 2100. Forest cover in the catchment increased from 72% in 2000 to 84% and 83% in 2050 and to 95% and 92% in 2100 for MP and LP, respectively. Surprisingly, increases in forest cover led to mean increases in annual streamflow production of 12 mm (6%) and 2 mm (1%) for MP and LP in 2050 with an annual control streamflow of 208 mm. In 2100, mean streamflow production increased by 91 mm (44%) and 61 mm (29%) for MP and LP. This result counters previous work as runoff production increased with forested area due to decreases in snow wind-scour and increases in drifting leeward of vegetation, highlighting the need to better understand the impacts of forest expansion on the spatial pattern of snow scour, deposition and catchment effective precipitation. Identifying the hydrologic response of mountainous areas to climate warming induced land cover change is critically important due to the potential water resources impacts on downstream regions.  相似文献   

12.
Though it is well known that vegetation affects the water balance of soils through canopy interception and evapotranspiration, its hydrological contribution to soil hydrology and stability is yet to be fully quantified. To improve understanding of this hydrological process, soil water dynamics have been monitored at three adjacent hillslopes with different vegetation covers (deciduous tree cover, coniferous tree cover, and grass cover), for nine months from December 2014 to September 2015. The monitored soil moisture values were translated into soil matric suction (SMS) values to facilitate the analysis of hillslope stability. Our observations showed significant seasonal variations in SMS for each vegetation cover condition. However, a significant difference between different vegetation covers was only evident during the winter season where the mean SMS under coniferous tree cover (83.6 kPa) was significantly greater than that under grass cover (41 kPa). The hydrological reinforcing contribution due to matric suction was highest for the hillslope with coniferous tree cover, while the hillslope with deciduous tree cover was second and the hillslope with grass cover was third. The greatest contributions for all cover types were during the summer season. During the winter season, the wettest period of the monitoring study, the additional hydrological reinforcing contributions provided by the deciduous tree cover (1.5 to 6.5 kPa) or the grass cover (0.9 to 5.4 kPa) were insufficient to avoid potential slope failure conditions. However, the additional hydrological reinforcing contribution from the coniferous tree cover (5.8 to 10.4 kPa) was sufficient to provide potentially stable hillslope conditions during the winter season. Our study clearly suggests that during the winter season the hydrological effects from both deciduous tree and grass covers are insufficient to promote slope stability, while the hydrological reinforcing effects from the coniferous tree cover are sufficient even during the winter season. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Snow is one of the most active natural elements of snow cover through its high albedo, variation of the the cryosphere on the earth surface. Its unique proper- snow cover distribution and frozen soils in regional ties, such as areal extent, surface albedo, and snow scales not only affect local climate and environments, depth are important parameters in global energy bal- but also feedback to large-scale, or even global cli- ance models. On global and terrestrial scales, a large matic change th…  相似文献   

14.
Xing Fang  John W. Pomeroy 《水文研究》2016,30(16):2754-2772
A devastating flood struck Southern Alberta in late June 2013, with much of its streamflow generation in the Front Ranges of the Rocky Mountains, west of Calgary. To better understand streamflow generation processes and their sensitivity to initial conditions, a physically based hydrological model was developed using the Cold Regions Hydrological Modelling platform (CRHM) to simulate the flood for the Marmot Creek Research Basin (~9.4 km2). The modular model includes major cold and warm season hydrological processes including snow redistribution, sublimation, melt, runoff over frozen and unfrozen soils, evapotranspiration, subsurface runoff on hillslopes, groundwater recharge and discharge and streamflow routing. Uncalibrated simulations were conducted for eight hydrological years and generally matched streamflow observations well, with a NRMSD of 52%, small model bias (?3%) and a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.71. The model was then used to diagnose the responses of hydrological processes in 2013 flood from different ecozones in Marmot Creek: alpine, treeline, montane forest and large and small forest clearings to better understand spatial variations in the flood runoff generation mechanisms. To examine the sensitivity to antecedent conditions, ‘virtual’ flood simulations were conducted using a week (17 to 24 June 2013) of flood meteorology imposed on the meteorology of the same period in other years (2005 to 2012), or switched with the meteorology of one week in different months (May to July) of 2013. Sensitivity to changing precipitation and land cover was assessed by varying the precipitation amount during the flood and forest cover and soil storage capacity in forest ecozone. The results show that runoff efficiency increases rapidly with antecedent snowpack and soil moisture storage with the highest runoff response to rainfall from locations in the basin where there are recently melted or actively melting snowpacks and resulting high soil moisture or frozen soils. The impact of forest canopy on flooding is negligible, but flood peak doubles if forest canopy removal is accompanied by 50% reduction in water storage capacity in the basin. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Dennis G. Dye 《水文研究》2002,16(15):3065-3077
This study investigated variability and trends in the annual snow‐cover cycle in regions covering high‐latitude and high‐elevation land areas in the Northern Hemisphere. The annual snow‐cover cycle was examined with respect to the week of the last‐observed snow cover in spring (WLS), the week of the first‐observed snow cover in autumn (WFS), and the duration of the snow‐free period (DSF). The analysis used a 29‐year time‐series (1972–2000) of weekly, visible‐band satellite observations of Northern Hemisphere snow cover from NOAA with corrections applied by D. Robinson of Rutgers University Climate Laboratory. Substantial interannual variability was observed in WLS, WFS and DSF (standard deviations of 0·8–1·1, 0·7–0·9 and 1·0–1·4 weeks, respectively), which is related directly to interannual variability in snow‐cover area in the regions and time periods of snow‐cover transition. Over the nearly three‐decade study period, WLS shifted earlier by 3–5 days/decade as determined by linear regression analysis. The observed shifts in the annual snow‐cover cycle underlie a significant trend toward a longer annual snow‐free period. The DSF increased by 5–6 days/decade over the study period, primarily as a result of earlier snow cover disappearance in spring. The observed trends are consistent with reported trends in the timing and length of the active growing season as determined from satellite observations of vegetation greenness and the atmospheric CO2 record. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
The present study sets out to investigate the sensitivity of water availability to climate change for a large western Himalayan river (the Satluj River basin with an area of 22 275 km2 and elevation range of 500 to 7000 m), which receives contributions from rain, snow and glacier melt runoff. About 65% of the basin area is covered with snow during winter, which reduces to about 11% after the ablation period. After having calibrated a conceptual hydrological model to provide accurate simulations of observed stream flow, the hydrological response of the basin was simulated using different climatic scenarios over a period of 9 years. Adopted plausible climate scenarios included three temperature scenarios (T + 1, T + 2, T + 3 °C) and four rainfall scenarios (P ? 10, P ? 5, P + 5 and P + 10%). The effect of climate change was studied on snowmelt and rainfall contribution runoff, and total stream flow. Under warmer climate, a typical feature of the study basin was found to be reduction in melt from the lower part of the basin owing to a reduction in snow covered area and shortening of the summer melting season, and, in contrast, an increase in the melt from the glacierized part owing to larger melt and an extended ablation period. Thus, on the basin scale, reduction in melt from the lower part was counteracted by the increase from melt from upper part of the basin, resulting in a decrease in the magnitude of change in annual melt runoff. The impact of climate change was found to be more prominent on seasonal rather than annual water availability. Reduction of water availability during the summer period, which contributes about 60% to the annual flow, may have severe implications on the water resources of the region, because demand of water for irrigation, hydropower and other usage is at its peak at this time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
A model study on the impact of climate change on snow cover and runoff has been conducted for the Swiss Canton of Graubünden. The model Alpine3D has been forced with the data from 35 Automatic Weather Stations in order to investigate snow and runoff dynamics for the current climate. The data set has then been modified to reflect climate change as predicted for the 2021–2050 and 2070–2095 periods from an ensemble of regional climate models.The predicted changes in snow cover will be moderate for 2021–2050 and become drastic in the second half of the century. Towards the end of the century the snow cover changes will roughly be equivalent to an elevation shift of 800 m. Seasonal snow water equivalents will decrease by one to two thirds and snow seasons will be shortened by five to nine weeks in 2095.Small, higher elevation catchments will show more winter runoff, earlier spring melt peaks and reduced summer runoff. Where glacierized areas exist, the transitional increase in glacier melt will initially offset losses from snow melt. Larger catchments, which reach lower elevations will show much smaller changes since they are already dominated by summer precipitation.  相似文献   

18.
Interannual variations in seasonal sediment transfer in two High Arctic non‐glacial watersheds were evaluated through three summers of field observations (2003–2005). Total seasonal discharge, controlled by initial watershed snow water equivalence (SWE) was the most important factor in total seasonal suspended sediment transfer. Secondary factors included melt energy, snow distribution and sediment supply. The largest pre‐melt SWE of the three years studied (2004) generated the largest seasonal runoff and disproportionately greater suspended sediment yield than the other years. In contrast, 2003 and 2005 had similar SWE and total runoff, but reduced runoff intensity resulted in lower suspended sediment concentrations and lower total suspended sediment yield in 2005. Lower air temperatures at the beginning of the snowmelt period in 2003 prolonged the melt period and increased meltwater storage within the snowpack. Subsequently, peak discharge and instantaneous suspended sediment concentrations were more intense than in the otherwise warmer 2005 season. The results for this study will aid in model development for sediment yield estimation from cold regions and will contribute to the interpretation of paleoenvironmental records obtained from sedimentary deposits in lakes. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
Seasonal TOC export from seven boreal catchments in northern Sweden   总被引：12，自引：0，他引：12  
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20.
The Puget Sound basin in northwestern Washington, USA has experienced substantial land cover and climate change over the last century. Using a spatially distributed hydrology model (the Distributed Hydrology‐Soil‐Vegetation Model, DHSVM) the concurrent effects of changing climate (primarily temperature) and land cover in the basin are deconvolved, based on land cover maps for 1883 and 2002, and gridded climate data for 1915–2006. It is found that land cover and temperature change effects on streamflow have occurred differently at high and low elevations. In the lowlands, land cover has occurred primarily as conversion of forest to urban or partially urban land use, and here the land cover signal dominates temperature change. In the uplands, both land cover and temperature change have played important roles. Temperature change is especially important at intermediate elevations (so‐called transient snow zone), where the winter snow line is most sensitive to temperature change—notwithstanding the effects of forest harvest over the same part of the basin. Model simulations show that current land cover results in higher fall, winter and early spring streamflow but lower summer flow; higher annual maximum flow and higher annual mean streamflow compared with pre‐development conditions, which is largely consistent with a trend analysis of model residuals. Land cover change effects in urban and partially urban basins have resulted in changes in annual flow, annual maximum flows, fall and summer flows. For the upland portion of the basin, shifts in the seasonal distribution of streamflows (higher spring flow and lower summer flow) are clearly related to rising temperatures, but annual streamflow has not changed much. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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