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1.
2.
Generous statistical tests   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
A common statistical problem is deciding which of two possible sources, A and B, of a contaminant is most likely the actual source. The situation considered here, based on an actual problem of polychlorinated biphenyl contamination discussed below, is one in which the data strongly supports the hypothesis that source A is responsible. The problem approach here is twofold: One, accurately estimating this extreme probability. Two, since the statistics involved will be used in a legal setting, estimating the extreme probability in such a way as to be as generous as is possible toward the defendant’s claim that the other site B could be responsible; thereby leaving little room for argument when this assertion is shown to be highly unlikely. The statistical testing for this problem is modeled by random variables {X i } and the corresponding sample mean the problem considered is providing a bound ɛ for which for a given number a 0. Under the hypothesis that the random variables {X i } satisfy E(X i ) ≤ μ, for some 0  < μ < 1, statistical tests are given, described as “generous”, because ɛ is maximized. The intent is to be able to reject the hypothesis that a 0 is a value of the sample mean while eliminating any possible objections to the model distributions chosen for the {X i } by choosing those distributions which maximize the value of ɛ for the test used.  相似文献   

3.
Attenuation of P,S, and coda waves in Koyna region,India   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The attenuation properties of the crust in the Koyna region of the Indian shield have been investigated using 164 seismograms from 37 local earthquakes that occurred in the region. The extended coda normalization method has been used to estimate the quality factors for P waves and S waves , and the single back-scattering model has been used to determine the quality factor for coda waves (Q c). The earthquakes used in the present study have the focal depth in the range of 1–9 km, and the epicentral distance vary from 11 to 55 km. The values of and Q c show a dependence on frequency in the Koyna region. The average frequency dependent relationships (Q = Q 0 f n) estimated for the region are , and . The ratio is found to be greater than one for the frequency range considered here (1.5–18 Hz). This ratio, along with the frequency dependence of quality factors, indicates that scattering is an important factor contributing to the attenuation of body waves in the region. A comparison of Q c and in the present study shows that for frequencies below 4 Hz and for the frequencies greater than 4 Hz. This may be due to the multiple scattering effect of the medium. The outcome of this study is expected to be useful for the estimation of source parameters and near-source simulation of earthquake ground motion, which in turn are required in the seismic hazard assessment of a region.  相似文献   

4.
Fermat's variational principle states that the signal propagates from point S to R along a curve which renders Fermat's functional (l) stationary. Fermat's functional (l) depends on curves l which connect points S and R, and represents the travel times from S to R along l. In seismology, it is mostly expressed by the integral (l) = (x k,x k ')du, taken along curve l, where (x k,x k ') is the relevant Lagrangian, x k are coordinates, u is a parameter used to specify the position of points along l, and x k ' = dx k÷du. If Lagrangian (x k,x k ') is a homogeneous function of the first degree in x k ', Fermat's principle is valid for arbitrary monotonic parameter u. We than speak of the first-degree Lagrangian (1)(x k,x k '). It is shown that the conventional Legendre transform cannot be applied to the first-degree Lagrangian (1)(x k,x k ') to derive the relevant Hamiltonian (1)(x k,p k), and Hamiltonian ray equations. The reason is that the Hessian determinant of the transform vanishes identically for first-degree Lagrangians (1)(x k,x k '). The Lagrangians must be modified so that the Hessian determinant is different from zero. A modification to overcome this difficulty is proposed in this article, and is based on second-degree Lagrangians (2). Parameter u along the curves is taken to correspond to travel time , and the second-degree Lagrangian (2)(x k, k ) is then introduced by the relation (2)(x k, k ) = [(1)(x k, k )]2, with k = dx k÷d. The second-degree Lagrangian (2)(x k, k ) yields the same Euler/Lagrange equations for rays as the first-degree Lagrangian (1)(x k, k ). The relevant Hessian determinant, however, does not vanish identically. Consequently, the Legendre transform can then be used to compute Hamiltonian (2)(x k,p k) from Lagrangian (2)(x k, k ), and vice versa, and the Hamiltonian canonical equations can be derived from the Euler-Lagrange equations. Both (2)(x k, k ) and (2)(x k,p k) can be expressed in terms of the wave propagation metric tensor g ij(x k, k ), which depends not only on position x k, but also on the direction of vector k . It is defined in a Finsler space, in which the distance is measured by the travel time. It is shown that the standard form of the Hamiltonian, derived from the elastodynamic equation and representing the eikonal equation, which has been broadly used in the seismic ray method, corresponds to the second-degree Lagrangian (2)(x k, k ), not to the first-degree Lagrangian (1)(x k, k ). It is also shown that relations (2)(x k, k ) = ; and (2)(x k,p k) = are valid at any point of the ray and that they represent the group velocity surface and the slowness surface, respectively. All procedures and derived equations are valid for general anisotropic inhomogeneous media, and for general curvilinear coordinates x i. To make certain procedures and equations more transparent and objective, the simpler cases of isotropic and ellipsoidally anisotropic media are briefly discussed as special cases.  相似文献   

5.
Let {Y, Y i , −∞ < i < ∞} be a doubly infinite sequence of identically distributed and asymptotically linear negative quadrant dependence random variables, {a i , −∞ < i < ∞} an absolutely summable sequence of real numbers. We are inspired by Wang et al. (Econometric Theory 18:119–139, 2002) and Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003). And Salvadori (Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 17:116–140, 2003) have obtained Linear combinations of order statistics to estimate the quantiles of generalized pareto and extreme values distributions. In this paper, we prove the complete convergence of under some suitable conditions. The results obtained improve and generalize the results of Li et al. (1992) and Zhang (1996). The results obtained extend those for negative associated sequences and ρ*-mixing sequences. CIC Number O211, AMS (2000) Subject Classification 60F15, 60G50 Research supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China  相似文献   

6.
In the past, arithmetic and geometric means have both been used to characterise pathogen densities in samples used for microbial risk assessment models. The calculation of total (annual) risk is based on cumulative independent (daily) exposures and the use of an exponential dose–response model, such as that used for exposure to Giardia or Cryptosporidium. Mathematical analysis suggests that the arithmetic mean is the appropriate measure of central tendency for microbial concentration with respect to repeated samples of daily exposure in risk assessment. This is despite frequent characterisation of microbial density by the geometric mean, since the microbial distributions may be Log normal or skewed in nature. Mathematical derivation supporting the use of the arithmetic mean has been based on deterministic analysis, prior assumptions and definitions, the use of point-estimates of probability, and has not included from the outset the influence of an actual distribution for microbial densities. We address these issues by experiments using two real-world pathogen datasets, together with Monte Carlo simulation, and it is revealed that the arithmetic mean also holds in the case of a daily dose with a finite distribution in microbial density, even when the distribution is very highly-skewed, as often occurs in environmental samples. Further, for simplicity, in many risk assessment models, the daily infection risk is assumed to be the same for each day of the year and is represented by a single value, which is then used in the calculation of p Σ, which is a numerical estimate of annual risk, P Σ, and we highlight the fact that is simply a function of the geometric mean of the daily complementary risk probabilities (although it is sometimes approximated by the arithmetic mean of daily risk in the low dose case). Finally, the risk estimate is an imprecise probability with no indication of error and we investigate and clarify the distinction between risk and uncertainty assessment with respect to the predictive model used for total risk assessment.  相似文献   

7.
8.
The 1999 basaltic eruption of Shishaldin volcano (Alaska, USA) included both Strombolian and Subplinian activity, as well as a “pre-Subplinian” phase interpreted as the local coalescence within a long foam in the conduit. Although few visual observations were made of the eruption, a great deal of information regarding gas velocity, gas flux at the vent and plume height may be inferred by using acoustic recordings of the eruption. By relating acoustic power to gas velocity, a time series of gas velocity is calculated for the Subplinian and pre-Subplinian phases. These time series show trends in gas velocity that are interpreted as plumes or, for those signals lasting only a short time, thermals. The Subplinian phase is shown to be composed of a thermal followed by five plumes with a total expelled gas volume of .The initiation of the Subplinian activity is probably related to the arrival of a large overpressurised bubble close to the top of the magma column. A gradual increase in low-frequency (0.01–0.5 Hz) signal prior to this “trigger bubble” may be due to the rise of the bubble in the conduit. This delay corresponds to a reservoir located at ≈3.9 km below the surface, in good agreement with studies on other volcanoes.The presence of two thermal phases is also identified in the middle of the pre-Subplinian phase with a total gas release of and . Gas velocity at the vent is found to be and for the Subplinian plumes and the pre-Subplinian thermals respectively.The agreement is very good between estimates of the gas flux from modelling the plume height and those obtained from acoustic measurements, leading to a new method by which eruption physical parameters may be quantified. Furthermore, direct measurements of gas velocity can be used for better estimates of the flux released during the eruption.  相似文献   

9.
Fuzzy process capability indices for quality control of irrigation water   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Water covers over 70% of the Earth surface and is a very important resource to people and the environment. Water pollution affects drinking water, rivers, lakes and oceans all over the world. This consequently harms human health and the natural environment. Water pollution can also affect the crops. So, water pollution is an important issue for humanity. Therefore, the control of irrigation water is a necessity. In this paper, a methodology based on process capability indices (PCIs) has been presented to control the levels of pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) in dam’s water for irrigation. Fuzzy PCIs have been proposed for this aim. The fuzzy estimates of $ \hat C_p Water covers over 70% of the Earth surface and is a very important resource to people and the environment. Water pollution affects drinking water, rivers, lakes and oceans all over the world. This consequently harms human health and the natural environment. Water pollution can also affect the crops. So, water pollution is an important issue for humanity. Therefore, the control of irrigation water is a necessity. In this paper, a methodology based on process capability indices (PCIs) has been presented to control the levels of pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and temperature (T) in dam’s water for irrigation. Fuzzy PCIs have been proposed for this aim. The fuzzy estimates of and are obtained for pH, DO, and T based on Buckley’s interval estimation approach and based on fuzzy specification limits. An application has been made for Kesikk?prü Dam in Ankara, Turkey. In this paper, Buckley’s approach is re-arranged to obtain a triangular fuzzy membership function because it cannot be obtained from Buckley’s approach in some situation.  相似文献   

10.
The viscosity of a series of six synthetic dacitic liquids, containing up to 5.04 wt% dissolved water, was measured above the glass transition range by parallel-plate viscometry. The temperature of the 1011 Pa s isokom decreases from 1065 K for the anhydrous liquid, to 864 K and 680 K for water contents of 0.97 and 5.04 wt% H2O. Including additional measurements at high temperatures by concentric-cylinder and falling-sphere viscometry, the viscosity (η) can be expressed as a function of temperature and water content w according to: where η is in Pa s, T is temperature in K, and w is in weight percent. Within the conditions of measurement, this parameterization reproduces the 76 viscosity data with a root-mean square deviation (RMSD) of 0.16 log units in viscosity, or 7.8 K in temperature. The measurements show that water decreases the viscosity of the dacitic liquids more than for andesitic liquids, but less than for rhyolites. At low temperatures and high water contents, andesitic liquids are more viscous than the dacitic liquids, which are in turn more viscous than rhyolitic liquids, reversing the trend seen for high temperatures and low water contents. This suggests that the relative viscosity of different melts depends on temperature and water content as much as on bulk melt composition and structure. At magmatic temperatures, rhyolites are orders of magnitude more viscous than dacites, which are slightly more viscous than andesites. During degassing, all three liquids undergo a rapid viscosity increase at low water contents, and both dacitic and andesitic liquids will degas more efficiently than rhyolitic liquids. During cooling and differentiation, changing melt chemistry, decreasing temperature and increasing crystal content all lead to increases in the viscosity of magma (melt plus crystals). Under closed system conditions, where melt water content can increase during crystallization, viscosity increases may be small. Conversely, viscosity increases are very abrupt during ascent and degassing-induced crystallization.  相似文献   

11.
Estimation of coda wave attenuation in East Central Iran   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The attenuation of coda waves, Q c , has been estimated in Zarand, Jiroft, and Bam regions of east central Iran using a single back-scattering model of S-coda envelopes. For this purpose, the recordings of 97 earthquakes by three seismic networks and a local strong ground motion network have been used. In this research, the frequency-dependent Q c values are estimated at central frequencies of 1.5, 3, 6, 8, 12, 16, and 24 Hz using different lapse time windows from 20 to 60 s. The frequency-dependent relationships obtained are for Zarand, for Jiroft, and for Bam region. From the strong ground motion data, we obtain the relation . The Q c frequency-dependent relationship for the entire region of east central Iran from all data (both seismograms and accelerograms) is . The average Q c values estimated and their frequency dependent relationships correlate well with a highly heterogeneous and highly tectonically active region. Results also show that the attenuation is higher in Bam region compared to Zarand and Jiroft regions.  相似文献   

12.
We present a comparative study of soil CO2 flux () measured by five groups (Groups 1–5) at the IAVCEI-CCVG Eighth Workshop on Volcanic Gases on Masaya volcano, Nicaragua. Groups 1–5 measured using the accumulation chamber method at 5-m spacing within a 900 m2 grid during a morning (AM) period. These measurements were repeated by Groups 1–3 during an afternoon (PM) period. Measured ranged from 218 to 14,719 g m−2 day−1. The variability of the five measurements made at each grid point ranged from ±5 to 167%. However, the arithmetic means of fluxes measured over the entire grid and associated total CO2 emission rate estimates varied between groups by only ±22%. All three groups that made PM measurements reported an 8–19% increase in total emissions over the AM results. Based on a comparison of measurements made during AM and PM times, we argue that this change is due in large part to natural temporal variability of gas flow, rather than to measurement error. In order to estimate the mean and associated CO2 emission rate of one data set and to map the spatial distribution, we compared six geostatistical methods: arithmetic and minimum variance unbiased estimator means of uninterpolated data, and arithmetic means of data interpolated by the multiquadric radial basis function, ordinary kriging, multi-Gaussian kriging, and sequential Gaussian simulation methods. While the total CO2 emission rates estimated using the different techniques only varied by ±4.4%, the maps showed important differences. We suggest that the sequential Gaussian simulation method yields the most realistic representation of the spatial distribution of , but a variety of geostatistical methods are appropriate to estimate the total CO2 emission rate from a study area, which is a primary goal in volcano monitoring research.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara  相似文献   

13.
Résumé La formule de base, traduisant une propriété analytique d'une classe très générale de fonctions, est un corollaire du théorème fondamental démontré dans un mémoire précédent, d'après lequel, étant donnés une fonction continue,p(, ,t) des points (, ) d'une surface régulière fermée et du temps et le champ d'un vecteur vitesse de transfert ou d'advection tangent à et ayant des lignes de flux fermées et régulières, il existe un opérateur spatial, linéaire, non singulierA tel que la fonctionA(p+Const.) soit purement advective par rapport a (sans creusement ni comblement). Ce théorème peut être exprimé par l'équation , où est un opérateur spatial, linéaire et non singulier, fonction deA.La détermination de peut être faite, soit en comparant deux formes différentes de la solution générale de l'équation en , soit en utilisant un raisonnement a priori très simple. On arrive ainsi au résultat pour un certain scalaireu(, ).Dans le cas oùp(, ,t) est la perturbation de la pression sur la surface du géoïde l'équation résulte aussi, comme nous l'avons montré dans le mémoire précédent, de notre théorie hydrodynamique des perturbations. On montre ici que la même équation peut encore être déduite de l'équation de continuité associée à la condition d'équilibre quasi statique selon la verticale.Comme applications de la formule de base (solution générale de l'équation enM), on étudie les problèmes suivants: 1o creusement et comblement en général; 2o creusement et comblement des centres et des cols; 3o mouvement des centres et des cols; 4o instabilité d'un champ moyen; 5o propriétés spatiales des champsp(, ,t) et des vecteurs d'advection analytiques.Après une discussion des erreurs de la prévision d'un champp(, ,t) par la formule de base, du fait des erreurs des observations et du fonctionnement du calculateur, on examine quelques particularités du transfert ou advection d'un champf 0(, ) par le vecteur . Enfin, le dernier chapitre du mémoire donne des éclaircissements complémentaires sur la structure du calculateur électronique «Temp» (qui effectue automatiquement les opérations mathématiques de la formule de base) et expose l'état actuel de sa construction.
Summary The basic formula, expressing an analytical property of a very general class of functions, is a corollary of the fundamental theorem, proved in a previous paper, according to which, given a functionp(, ,t) of the points (, ) of a closed regular surface and of the time, and a transfer or advection velocity vector tangent to and having regular closed streamlines, there is a spatial, linear, non singular operatorA such thatA(p+const.) is a purely advective function in respect to (no deepening). This theorem can be expressed by the equation where is a spatial, linear, non singular operator depending onA.The determination of can be attained, either by the comparison of two different forms of the general solution of the -equation, or by a simple a priori reasonning. The conclusion is thus reached that for a certain scalaru(, ).Whenp(, ,t) is the pressure perturbation at sea level, it was shown, in the preceding paper, that the equation can also be derived from our hydrodynamical perturbation theory. We now show that for this particular case, the same equation is also a consequence of the equation of continuity together with the condition of quasi statical vertical equilibrium.The following problems are then analysed by means of the basic formula: 1o deepening and filling in general; 2o deepening and filling of the centres and cols; 3o motion of the centres and cols; 4o instability of a mean field; 5o spatial properties of the analytical fields and advection vectors .The errors in the forecast of a field,p(, ,t) by means of the basic formula, due to the observational and computational errors, are discussed, and some peculiarities of the transfer or advection of a fieldf 0(, ) by are examined. Finally, complementary points are disclosed on the structure of the electronic computer «Temp» which performs automatically the mathematical operations of the basic formula, and a brief report is given of the present state of its construction.
  相似文献   

14.
Summary If the condition R(A)=k(n), whereA is the design matrix of the type n × k and k the number of parameters to be determined, is not satisfied, or if the covariance matrixH is singular, it is possible to determine the adjusted value of the unbiased estimable function of the parameters f(), its dispersion D( (x)) and 2 as the unbiased estimate of the value of 2 by means of an arbitrary g-inversion of the matrix . The matrix , because of its remarkable properties, is called the Pandora Box matrix. The paper gives the proofs of these properties and the manner in which they can be employed in the calculus of observations.  相似文献   

15.
Abiogenic hydrocarbons in commercial gases from the Songliao Basin, China   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
This paper discusses the kinetic fractionation, composition and distribution characteristics of carbon and hydrogen isotopes for various alkane gases formed in different environments, by different mecha- nisms and from different sources in nature. It is demonstrated that the biodegradation or thermode- gradation of complex high-molecule sedimentary organic material can form microbial gas or thermogenic gas. The δ 13C1 value ranges from -110‰ to -50‰ for microbial gases but from -50‰ to -35‰ (even heavier) f...  相似文献   

16.
Summary Seven optimal networks consisting of 4 to 10 stations are compared for a given region, where velocity-depth profiles and the distribution of seismic intensity are known. Assuming that the standard error of arrival time is t =0.05 s and the standard errors of the parameters of velocity-depth profiles are equal to 5% of their values, the average standard errors of the origin time and focus coordinates are estimated. The application of optimum methods to the planning of seismic networks in the Lublin Coal Basin is presented, and maps of standard errors of origin time , depth and epicenter ( xy ) for the case of an optimum network of 6 seismic stations are given.  相似文献   

17.
We develop a new method for the statistical estimation of the tail of the distribution of earthquake sizes recorded in the Harvard catalog of seismic moments converted to m W -magnitudes (1977–2004 and 1977–2006). For this, we suggest a new parametric model for the distribution of main-shock magnitudes, which is composed of two branches, the pure Gutenberg-Richter distribution up to an upper magnitude threshold m 1, followed by another branch with a maximum upper magnitude bound M max, which we refer to as the two-branch model. We find that the number of main events in the catalog (N = 3975 for 1977–2004 and N = 4193 for 1977–2006) is insufficient for a direct estimation of the parameters of this model, due to the inherent instability of the estimation problem. This problem is likely to be the same for any other two-branch model. This inherent limitation can be explained by the fact that only a small fraction of the empirical data populates the second branch. We then show that using the set of maximum magnitudes (the set of T-maxima) in windows of duration T days provides a significant improvement, in particular (i) by minimizing the negative impact of time-clustering of foreshock/main shock/aftershock sequences in the estimation of the tail of magnitude distribution, and (ii) by providing via a simulation method reliable estimates of the biases in the Moment estimation procedure (which turns out to be more efficient than the Maximum Likelihood estimation). We propose a method for the determination of the optimal choice of the T value minimizing the mean-squares-error of the estimation of the form parameter of the GEV distribution approximating the sample distribution of T-maxima, which yields T optimal = 500 days. We have estimated the following quantiles of the distribution of T-maxima for the whole period 1977–2006: Q 16%(M max) = 9.3, Q 50%(M max) = 9.7 and Q 84%(M max) = 10.3. Finally, we suggest two more stable statistical characteristics of the tail of the distribution of earthquake magnitudes: The quantile Q T (q) of a high probability level q for the T-maxima, and the probability of exceedance of a high threshold magnitude ρ T (m*)  = P{m k  ≥ m*}. We obtained the following sample estimates for the global Harvard catalog and The comparison between our estimates for the two periods 1977–2004 and 1977–2006, where the latter period included the great Sumatra earthquake 24.12.2004, m W  = 9.0 confirms the instability of the estimation of the parameter M max and the stability of Q T (q) and ρ T (m*) = P{m k  ≥ m*}.  相似文献   

18.
The intrinsic dissipation and scattering attenuation in southwestern (SW) Anatolia, which is a tectonically active region, is studied using the coda waves. First the coda quality factor (Qc) assuming single scattering is estimated from the slope of the coda-wave amplitude decay. Then the Multiple Lapse Time Window (MLTW) analysis is performed with a uniform earth model. Three non-overlapping temporal data windows are used to calculate the scattered seismic energy densities against the source-receiver distances, which, in turn, are used to calculate separate estimates of the intrinsic and scattering factors. In order to explore the frequency dependency, the observed seismograms are band pass-filtered at the center frequencies of 0.75, 1.5, 3.0, 6.0 and 12.0. The scattering attenuation (Qs−1) is found lower than the intrinsic attenuation (Qi−1) at all frequencies except at 0.75 Hz where the opposite is observed. Overall the intrinsic attenuation dominates over the scattering attenuation in the SW Anatolia region. The integrated energy curves obtained for the first energy window (i.e., 0–15 s) are somewhat irregular with distance while the second (i.e., 15–30 s) and third (i.e., 30–45 s) data windows exhibit more regular change with distance at most frequencies. The seismic albedo B0 is determined as 0.61 at 0.75 Hz and 0.34 at 12.0 Hz while the total attenuation factor denoted by Le−1 changes in the range 0.034–0.017. For the source-station range 20–180 km considered the scattering attenuation is found strongly frequency dependent given by the power law Qs−1 = 0.010*f−1.508. The same relations for Qi−1, Qt−1 (total), Qc−1 and (expected) hold as Qi−1 = 0.0090*f−1.17, Qt−1 = 0.019*f−1.31, Qc−1 = 0.008*f−0.84 and respectively. Compared to the other attenuation factors Qc−1 and are less dependent on the frequency.  相似文献   

19.
The conditions under which two magmas can become mixed within a rising magma batch are investigated by scaling analyses and fluid-dynamical experiments. The results of scaling analyses show that the fluid behaviours in a squeezed conduit are determined mainly by the dimensionless number where 1 is the viscosity of the fluid, U is the velocity, g is the acceleration due to gravity, is the density difference between the two fluids, and R is the radius of the tube. The parameter I represents a balance between the viscous effects in the uppermost magma which prevent it from being moved off the conduit walls, and the buoyancy forces which tend to keep the interface horizontal. The experiments are carried out using fluid pairs of various density and viscosity contrasts in a squeezed vinyl tube. They show that overturning of the initial density stratification and mixing occur when I>order 10-1; the two fluids remain stratified when I 10-3. Transitional states are observed when 10-3<I<10-1. These results are nearly independent of Reynolds number and viscosity ratio in the range of and Re 1<300. Applying these results to magmas shows that silicic to intermediate magmas overlying mafic magma will be prone to mixing in a rising magma batch. This mechanism can explain some occurrences of small-volume mixed lava flows.  相似文献   

20.
OnsomeproblemsofseismiccrustalphaseHuan-ChengGE(葛焕称)(SeismologicalBureauofJiangsuProvince,Nanjing210014,China)Abstract:Inthis...  相似文献   

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