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1.
This paper refers to the CNOP-related algorithms and formulates the practical method and forecast techniques of extracting predictable components in a numerical model for predictable components on extended-range scales.Model variables are divided into predictable components and unpredictable chaotic components from the angle of model prediction error growth.The predictable components are defined as those with a slow error growth at a given range.A targeted numerical model for predictable components is established based on the operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center.At the same time,useful information in historical data are combined to find the fields for predictable components in the numerical model that are similar to those for the predictable components in historical data,reducing the variable dimensions in a similar judgment process and further correcting prediction errors of predictable components.Historical data is used to obtain the expected value and variance of the chaotic components through the ensemble forecast method.The numerical experiment results show that this method can effectively improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation field in the 10–30 days extended-range numerical model and has good prospects for operational applications. 相似文献
2.
针对西太平洋副热带高压中长期预报不准确的问题,基于动力系统反演思想和改进自忆性原理等途径建立了副高脊线指数的动力预报模型.本文创新性地引入了最大李雅普诺夫指数改进了传统的自忆性函数,使其对副热带高压之类的混沌非线性系统更加具有针对性,较好地克服了预报初值单一性问题;并根据实际观测资料重构的动力系统作为其动力核,克服了传统自忆性方程动力核设置较为简单的问题.用建立的副热带高压脊线指数动力预报模型实现了副高南北位置的中长期预报,通过了副高异常年份和正常年份的多次实验,可以发现模型在25天以内的预报效果很好,相关系数能达到0.80左右,相对误差控制在8%以下,证明了改进的模型具有较好的中长期预报效果.另外还将此模型推广到对副热带高压的面积指数和西脊点指数的预报,也取得了较好的预报效果,证明此方法适合于副热带高压的整体预报.鉴于西太副高发生发展机理的复杂性和预报的困难性,本文为副高等复杂天气系统的预报探索了新的方法思路. 相似文献
3.
历史地震资料与地震的中长期预测 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
故障诊断模型的基本内容是根据动态系统的外部特征来判断系统内部是否发生故障及确定故障发生的部位、时间和大小。由于故障诊断技术在监测及诊断故障的思路上和地震预报有很多相似之处，因此，把故障诊断技术应用于地震预报是可行的。由于该模型与其他数学模型一样，需要有较多的学习过程，所以历史地震资料在该模型中有重要作用。而其中的鲁棒性故障诊断模型在抑制各子模型的个性，凸现其共性方面有其特有的性质，所以把它作为一种综合模型，能抑制各子模型的个性，突出在地震预测方面的共性，从而提高预测的精确性。本文根据一个实例，说明了这种综合性模型的可行性。在文章的最后，由信息量的分析，说明了模型的鲁棒性特征。 相似文献
4.
通过回顾甘肃省近20多年的地震预报工作,发现年尺度地震预报成功率不足8％。分析了年尺度地震预报成功率低下的原因和提高年尺度地震预报成功率在实现具有减灾实效地震预报的目标中的重要意义。最后提出了在对甘肃及邻区地震构造环境、地球物理场和地震资料搜集、整理和分析的基础上,探讨其与强震活动的关联性,寻找地震发生的时、空、强分布规律,建立具有明确构造物理含义的地震预测模型,先进行长期地震危险性分析,再开展年尺度的地震跟踪预报的新思路。沿用这一思路,预期可以减少虚报,进而提高年尺度地震预报成功率。 相似文献
5.
短期气候预测中如何将气候模式和统计方法的预测结果科学、客观的集成起来，一直是非常重要的问题.本文针对动力模式和统计方法预测结果相结合的问题，引入资料同化中信息融合的思想，采用最优内插同化方法，实现了动力模式和统计季节降水预测结果的融合.检验表明，对1982-2015年我国夏季降水百分率的回报，融合预测结果与观测的平均空间相关系数可达0.44，分别较统计预测和CFSv2模式统计降尺度订正的技巧提高了0.1左右，而均方根误差较两者可以降低5%~20%.可见，该方法可以进一步提升对我国夏季降水的预测技巧，具有显著的业务应用价值. 相似文献
6.
Forecasting the summer rainfall in North China using the year-to-year increment approach 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
A new approach to forecasting the year-to-year increment of rainfall in North China in July–August (JA) is proposed. DY is
defined as the difference of a variable between the current year and the preceding year (year-to-year increment). NR denotes
the seasonal mean precipitation rate over North China in JA. After analyzing the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated
with the DY of NR, five key predictors for the DY of NR have been identified. The prediction model for the DY of NR is established
by using multi-linear regression method and the NR is obtained (the current forecasted DY of NR added to the preceding observed
NR). The prediction model shows a high correlation coefficient (0.8) between the simulated and the observed DY of NR throughout
period 1965–1999, with an average relative root mean square error of 19% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly
over North China. The prediction model makes a hindcast for 2000–2007, with an average relative root mean square error of
21% for the percentage of precipitation rate anomaly over North China. The model reproduces the downward trend of the percentage
of precipitation rate anomaly over North China during 1965–2006. Because the current operational prediction models of the
summer precipitation have average forecast scores of 60%–70%, it has been more difficult to forecast the summer rainfall over
North China. Thus this new approach for predicting the year-to-year increment of the summer precipitation (and hence the summer
precipitation itself) has the potential to significantly improve operational forecasting skill for summer precipitation.
Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421406), National Natural Science Foundation of China
(Grant Nos. 40631005, 40775049) and Excellent Ph. D Dissertation in Chinese Academy of Sciences 相似文献
7.
现代地震观测积累了大量、种类繁多的地震前兆数据和震后数据,但数据中隐含的地震规律及趋势无法用经典的算例、数学公式、物理公式进行定量解释、分析和预测,需要探索新方法、新技术。案例表明,大数据分析具有预测事物发展趋势、改变传统观念和发现新事物的功能,有助于从错误信息中挖掘有价值信息。本文由此提出基于大数据技术处理地震数据的新思路,对地震监测预报新思路进行探索;通过在大数据平台上基于地震目录的余震预测研究,给出大数据技术在地震数据处理方面的一个应用实例,验证该思路的可行性。 相似文献
8.
9.
Short-range prediction experiments of the Kuroshio path variabilities south of Japan 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
Assimilation and prediction experiments of the Kuroshio path variability south of Japan were conducted to investigate the
predictability of the Kuroshio path. The assimilation and prediction system is composed of an eddy-resolving model and a three-dimensional
variational analysis scheme with vertical coupled temperature–salinity empirical orthogonal function modes. The sea surface
height (SSH) variability and the variations of the Kuroshio path of the assimilation fields are in good agreement with those
observed. The results of the assimilation are then used as the initial conditions for 138 cases of 90-day prediction experiments
conducted from 1993 to 2004. The predictive limit of our system is assessed by the SSH anomaly in the assimilation field and
is found to be around 40–60 days, which is much longer than that of the persistence. The prediction results show good performance
in the transition stage from a straight to a meandering path. For example, a large meandering event that occurred in August
2004 is successfully predicted in a 2-month forecast. Two types of failure cases are investigated. One is a case where the
eastward propagation speed of the meander is faster than a real state. The dynamical response of the model to the assimilation
revealed that an initial shock, caused by the dynamically unbalanced initial condition, induces the fast eastward propagation
of the meander. The other case exhibits an unrealistic meander. In this case, a cold anomaly at an intermediate layer in the
initial condition grows rapidly and results in the unrealistic meander. This implies that the Kuroshio path south of Japan
has a chaotic nature. These facts revealed by the failure cases give us some insight for improving the predictive skill of
the Kuroshio path variability. 相似文献
10.
A new surface runoff parameterization with subgrid-scale soil heterogeneity for land surface models 总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7
Soil heterogeneity plays an important role in determining surface runoff generation mechanisms. At the spatial scales represented by land surface models used in regional climate model and/or global general circulation models (GCMs) for numerical weather prediction and climate studies, both infiltration excess (Horton) and saturation excess (Dunne) runoff may be present within a studied area or a model grid cell. Proper modeling of surface runoff is essential to a reasonable representation of feedbacks in the land–atmosphere system. In this paper, a new surface runoff parameterization that dynamically represents both Horton and Dunne runoff generation mechanisms within a model grid cell is presented. The new parameterization takes into account of effects of soil heterogeneity on Horton and Dunne runoff. A series of numerical experiments are conducted to study the effects of soil heterogeneity on Horton and Dunne runoff and on soil moisture storage under different soil and precipitation conditions. The new parameterization is implemented into the current version of the hydrologically based variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface model and tested over three watersheds in Pennsylvania. Results show that the new parameterization plays a very important role in partitioning the water budget between surface runoff and soil moisture in the atmosphere–land coupling system. Significant underestimation of the surface runoff and overestimation of subsurface runoff and soil moisture could be resulted if the Horton runoff mechanism were not taken into account. Also, the results show that the Horton runoff mechanism should be considered within the context of subgrid-scale spatial variability of soil properties and precipitation. An assumption of time-invariant spatial distribution of potential infiltration rate may result in large errors in surface runoff and soil moisture. In addition, the total surface runoff from the new parameterization is less sensitive to the choice of the soil moisture shape parameter of the distribution. 相似文献
11.
NRLMSISE-00大气模型广泛应用于航天器定轨和预测等方面,但存在着较大的误差,尤其是在短期变化方面.为了提高低轨道大气密度短期预报的精度,我们提出了一种基于实测数据对NRLMSISE-00大气模型密度结果进行修正预报的方法:利用GRACE(Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment)和CHAMP(Challenging Mini-Satellite Payload)卫星2002-2008年大气密度探测数据对NRLMSISE-00模型进行误差分析,获得模型的修正因子,再对模型的大气密度结果进行修正.采用该修正方法对GRACE-A和CHAMP卫星轨道上的大气密度进行3天短期预报试验验证,结果表明可显著提高大气密度的预报精度,在太阳活动低年,修正后的大气密度预报误差比NRLMSISE-00模型误差降低50%以上. 相似文献
12.
The anelastic nonhydrostatic model EULAG is a candidate for the future dynamical core of a numerical weather prediction model.
Achieving such an objective requires a number of experiments focused on testing correctness of the solutions and robustness
of the solver. In the spirit of this idea, a set of tests related to standard atmospheric problems was performed, of which
the two regarding development and evolution of a supercell were employed as benchmarks of moist dynamics of the model. Their
results are discussed in this paper. Development and evolution of a stormsystem with a set of characteristic features such
as stormsplitting along with the generation of horizontal vorticity and cold pool formation is investigated. In addition,
the influence of domain geometry, boundary conditions and subgrid-scale mixing is examined. 相似文献
13.
Earthquake prediction as a decision-making problem 总被引：11，自引：0，他引：11
G. M. Molchan 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1997,149(1):233-247
In this review we consider an interdisciplinary problem of earthquake prediction involving economics. This joint research aids in understanding the prediction problem as a whole and reveals additional requirements for seismostatistics. We formulate the problem as an optimal control problem: Prossessing the possibility to declare several types of alerts, it is necessary to find an optimal changing alert types; each successful prediction prevents a certain amount of losses; total expected losses are integrated over the semi-infinite time interval. The discount factor is included in the model. Algorithmic and exact solutions are indicated.This paper is based on the recent results byMolchan (1990, 1991, 1992). 相似文献
14.
新形势下地震监测预报发展的思考 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
本文从我国30多年地震监测预报历程、今后监测预报的发展方向以及改进监测预报管理工作等方面简明扼要地阐明了在新形式下如何推进地震监测预报发展的思考,文中所讨论的问题及新思维、新观点,相信对广大读者会带来更多的启迪,以此促进防震减灾事业的不断发展。 相似文献
15.
16.
R. C. Curi T. E. Unny K. W. Hipel K. Ponnambalam 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1995,9(1):13-32
Distributed parameter filtering theory is employed for estimating the state variables and associated error covariances of a dynamical distributed system under highly random tidal and meteorological influences. The stochastic-deterministic mathematical model of the physical system under study consists of the shallow water equations described by the momentum and continuity equations in which the external forces such as Coriolis force, wind friction, and atmospheric pressure are considered. White Gaussian noises in the system and measurement equations are used to account for the inherent stochasticity of the system. By using an optimal distributed parameter filter, the information provided by the stochastic dynamical model and the noisy measurements taken from the actual system are combined to obtain an optimal estimate of the state of the system, which in turn is used as the initial condition for the prediction procedure. The approach followed here has numerical approximation carried out at the end, which means that the numerical discretization is performed in the filtering equations, and not in the equations modelling the system. Therefore, the continuous distributed nature of the original system is maintained as long as possible and the propagation of modelling errors in the problem is minimized. The appropriateness of the distributed parameter filter is demonstrated in an application involving the prediction of storm surges in the North Sea. The results confirm excellent filter performance with considerable improvement with respect to the deterministic prediction. 相似文献
17.
R. C. Curi T. E. Unny K. W. Hipel K. Ponnambalam 《Stochastic Hydrology and Hydraulics》1995,9(1):13-32
Distributed parameter filtering theory is employed for estimating the state variables and associated error covariances of a dynamical distributed system under highly random tidal and meteorological influences. The stochastic-deterministic mathematical model of the physical system under study consists of the shallow water equations described by the momentum and continuity equations in which the external forces such as Coriolis force, wind friction, and atmospheric pressure are considered. White Gaussian noises in the system and measurement equations are used to account for the inherent stochasticity of the system. By using an optimal distributed parameter filter, the information provided by the stochastic dynamical model and the noisy measurements taken from the actual system are combined to obtain an optimal estimate of the state of the system, which in turn is used as the initial condition for the prediction procedure. The approach followed here has numerical approximation carried out at the end, which means that the numerical discretization is performed in the filtering equations, and not in the equations modelling the system. Therefore, the continuous distributed nature of the original system is maintained as long as possible and the propagation of modelling errors in the problem is minimized. The appropriateness of the distributed parameter filter is demonstrated in an application involving the prediction of storm surges in the North Sea. The results confirm excellent filter performance with considerable improvement with respect to the deterministic prediction. 相似文献
18.
Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions. 相似文献
19.
Rafael Rosolem Hoshin V. Gupta W. James Shuttleworth Luis Gustavo Gonçalves de Gonçalves Xubin Zeng 《水文研究》2013,27(14):2075-2097
In climate models, the land–atmosphere interactions are described numerically by land surface parameterization (LSP) schemes. The continuing improvement in realism in these schemes comes at the expense of the need to specify a large number of parameters that are either directly measured or estimated. Also, an emerging problem is whether the relationships used in LSPs are universal and globally applicable. One plausible approach to evaluate this is to first minimize uncertainty in model parameters by calibration. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of some model diagnostics using a slightly modified version of the Simple Biosphere 3 model for a variety of biomes located mainly in the Amazon. First, the degree of influence of each individual parameter in simulating surface fluxes is identified. Next, we estimate parameters using a multi‐operator genetic algorithm applied in a multi‐objective context and evaluate simulations of energy and carbon fluxes against observations. Compared with the default parameter sets, these parameter estimates improve the partitioning of energy fluxes in forest and cropland sites and provide better simulations of daytime increases in assimilation of net carbon during the dry season at forest sites. Finally, a detailed assessment of the parameter estimation problem was performed by accounting for the decomposition of the mean squared error to the total model uncertainty. Analysis of the total prediction uncertainty reveals that the parameter adjustments significantly improve reproduction of the mean and variability of the flux time series at all sites and generally remove seasonality of the errors but do not improve dynamical properties. Our results demonstrate that error decomposition provides a meaningful and intuitive way to understand differences in model performance. To make further advancements in the knowledge of these models, we encourage the LSP community to adopt similar approaches in the future. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
20.
Thedevelopmentandthevariationoftheearthquakeprocessisaverycomplicatedoneandaffectedandlimitedbymanyfactors.Thekeyoftheaccuratepredictionistosetupadynamiccomprehensivepredictionmodelbasedonthecomprehensionoftheprecursorcharacteristicandtheattentionofthevariationwithtimeofthesefactors.Inthispaper,wetrytoapplythefaultdiagnosistectonictoeanhquakeprediction.Thefaultdiagnosistectonicisanapplicableboundaryscience.Thebasicideaistojudgeifthefaultoccurinthesystemandtodeterminewhereandwhenthefaultoccuran… 相似文献