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1.
Warming in the Arctic is occurring at twice the rate of the global average, resulting in permafrost thaw and a restructuring of the Arctic hydrologic cycle as indicated by increased stream discharge during low-flow periods. In these cold regions, permafrost thaw is postulated to increase low-flow discharge, or baseflow, through either: (a) localized increases in groundwater storage and discharge to streams due to increased aquifer transmissivity from thickening of the freeze–thaw layer above permafrost known as the active layer or (b) long-term increases in regional groundwater circulation via enhancement of groundwater–surface water interactions due to extensive permafrost loss over decades. While increasing baseflow has been observed throughout northern Eurasia, the precise mechanistic causes remain elusive. In this study, we differentiate between where these two subsurface physical mechanisms of baseflow increase are occurring by performing a baseflow recession analysis using daily streamflow records from 1913 to 2003 for 139 stations in northern Eurasia underlain by varying permafrost areal extents. Results indicate that from 1913 to 2003, the majority of catchments underlain by continuous permafrost have an increasing trend in their recession flow intercepts, a proxy for increasing active layer thickness. Alternatively, the majority of catchments underlain by permafrost types that are less spatially extensive (e.g., discontinuous, sporadic, isolated, or no permafrost) have decreasing trends in their recession flow intercepts, indicating that a potential increase in active layer thickness is not the driving factor of baseflow variations in these catchments. This may indicate that in catchments underlain by continuous permafrost, active layer thickening correlates with increases in baseflow, whereas, in other catchments with less extensive permafrost, increases in baseflow may be caused by wholesale permafrost loss and vertical talik expansion that enhances regional groundwater circulation. The results of this work may inform our understanding of the subsurface mechanisms responsible for the changing Arctic hydrologic cycle.  相似文献   

2.
A geochemical and end‐member mixing analysis (EMMA) is undertaken in Devil Canyon catchment, located in southern California, to further understanding of watershed behaviour and source water contributions after an acute and extensive wildfire. Physical and chemical transformations in post‐fire watersheds are known to increase overland flow and decrease infiltration, mainly due to formation of a hydrophobic layer at, or near, the soil surface. However, less is known about subsurface flow response in burned watersheds. The current study incorporates EMMA to evaluate and quantify source water contributions before, and after, a catchment affected by wildfires in southern California during the fall of 2003. Pre‐ and post‐fire stream water data were available at several sampling sites within the catchment, allowing the identification of contributing water sources at varying spatial scales. Proposed end‐member observations (groundwater, overland flow, shallow subsurface flow) were also collected to constrain and develop the catchment mixing model. Post‐fire source water changes are more evident in the smaller and faster responding sub‐basin (interior sampling point). Early post‐fire storm events are dominated by overland flow with no significant soil water or groundwater flow contribution. Inter‐storm streamwater in this smaller basin shows an increase in groundwater and a decrease in soil water. In the larger, baseflow‐dominated system, source water components appear less affected by fire. A slight increase in lateral flow is observed with only a slight decrease in baseflow. Changes in the post‐fire flow regimes affect nutrient loading and chemical response of the basin. Relatively rapid recovery of the chaparral ecosystem is evidenced, with active re‐growth and evapotranspiration evidenced by the fourth post‐fire rainy season. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Prem B. Parajuli 《水文研究》2010,24(26):3785-3797
The climatic processes such as changes in precipitation, temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration can intensify the effects on water resources. An assessment of the effects of long‐term climate change on water resources is essential to the development of water quality improvement programs. This study was conducted in the Upper Pearl River Watershed (UPRW) in east‐central Mississippi to assess the effects of long‐term potential future climate change on average mean monthly stream flow from the five spatially distributed U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) gage stations in the UPRW using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool. The model was calibrated (January 1981 to December 1994) and validated (January 1995 to September 2008) using monthly measured stream flow data. The calibrated and validated model determined good to very good performance for stream flow prediction (R2 and E from 0·60 to 0·86) between measured and predicted stream flow values. The root mean square error values (from 14 to 37 m3 s?1) were estimated at similar levels of errors during model calibration and validation. The results showed that long‐term (50 years) average monthly stream flow sensitivity due to climate change effects was found the greatest as a result of percentage change in the precipitation followed by carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and temperature. The long‐term model simulation scenarios as compared with the base scenario for all five spatially distributed USGS gage stations in the UPRW estimated an average monthly stream flow decrease (from 54 to 67%) and average monthly stream flow increase (from 67 to 79%) depending on the spatial characteristics of the USGS gage stations. Overall, the results indicate that the UPRW hydrology is very sensitive to potential future climate changes and that these changes could stimulate increased streamflow generation from the watershed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
D. A. Hughes 《水文研究》2010,24(6):767-774
Understanding hydrological processes has always been important to the development and successful application of conceptual hydrological models. It can also contribute to informed water resources management, particularly in the context of understanding the potential impacts of both land use and climate change. Improved conceptual and quantitative understanding of near‐surface hydrological processes emerged through field studies during the 1960s to1980s; however, there remains a degree of ambiguity about the processes that link surface water and groundwater. This is especially the case in South Africa where a great deal of confusion has arisen about the source of the ‘baseflow’ signal in stream flow observations. This paper suggests that fracture flow within the unsaturated zone could have a lateral component and therefore re‐emerge and contribute to stream flow in catchments with relatively steep topography. The implication is that ‘baseflows’ could be made up of groundwater contributions (caused by intersection of the water table with stream channels) as well as an unsaturated zone flow component. Evidence for the existence of the process is presented on the basis of small‐scale observations and interpretations of stream flow observations. The potential importance of the process relates to interpreting different methods of recharge estimation, assessing the impacts of groundwater abstraction on stream flow, as well as the application and interpretation of the results of hydrological models. The conclusions are that the process does exist, but that there is less than conclusive evidence for its importance. There is therefore a need for further studies that can quantify the scale of the process and therefore its importance. Only then will it be possible to develop a consistent understanding of the processes of surface water and groundwater interaction and therefore manage water resources in a truly integrated manner. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
We examined the applicability of the critical‐source area (CSA) concept to the dairy‐grazed 192‐ha Upper Toenepi catchment and its 8·7‐ha Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, New Zealand. We evaluated if phosphorus (P) transport from land into stream is dominated by saturation‐excess (SE) and infiltration‐excess (IE) runoff during stormflow and by sub‐surface (<1·5 m depth) flows during baseflow. We measured stream flow and shallow groundwater levels, collected monthly stream, tile drain (TDA) and groundwater samples, and flow‐proportional stream samples from the Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, and determined their dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations. In the Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, during storm events, IE contributions were significant. Contributions from SE appeared significant in the Upper Toenepi catchment. However, in both catchments, sub‐surface contributions dominated stormflow and baseflow periods. Absence of water table at the surface and the water table gradient towards the stream indicated that P transport during events was not limited to surface runoff. The dynamics of the groundwater table and the occurrence of SE areas were influenced by proximity to the stream and hillslope positions. Baseflow accounted for 42% of the annual flow in the Kiwitahi sub‐catchment, and contributed 37 and 52% to the DRP and TP loads, respectively. The P transport during baseflow appeared equally important as P losses from CSAs during stormflow. The close resemblance in P levels between groundwater and stream samples during baseflow demonstrates the importance of shallow groundwater for stream flow. In the Upper Toenepi catchment, contributions from effluent ponds (EFFs) dominated P loads. Management strategies should focus on controlling P release from EFFs, and on decreasing Olsen P concentrations in soil to minimize leaching of P via sub‐surface flow to streams. Research is needed to quantify the role of sub‐surface flow as well as to expand management strategies to minimize P transfers during stormflow and baseflow conditions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

6.
Models simulating stream flow and conservative tracers can provide a representation of flow paths, storage distributions and mixing processes that is advantageous for many predictive purposes. Compared with models that only simulate stream flow, tracer data can be used to investigate the internal consistency of model behaviour and to gain insight into model performance. Here, we examine the strengths and weaknesses of a data‐driven, spatially distributed tracer‐aided rainfall‐runoff model. The model structure allowed us to assess the influence of landscape characteristics on the routing and mixing of water and tracers. The model was applied to a site in the Scottish Highlands with a unique tracer data set; ~4 years of daily isotope ratios in stream water and precipitation were available, as well as 2 years of weekly soil and ground water isotopes. The model structure was based on an empirically based, lumped tracer‐aided model previously developed for the catchment. The best model runs were selected from Monte Carlo simulations based on dual calibration criteria using objective functions for both stream isotopes and discharge at the outlet. Model performance for these criteria was reasonable (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies for discharge and isotope ratios were ~0.4–0.6). The model could generally reproduce the variable isotope signals in the soils of the steeper hill slopes where storage was low, and damped isotope responses in valley bottom cells with high storage. The model also allowed us to estimate the age distributions of internal stores, water fluxes and stream flow. Average stream water age was ~1.6 years, integrating older groundwater in the valley bottom and dynamic younger soil waters. By tracking water ages and simulating isotopes, the model captured the changes in connectivity driven by distributed storage dynamics. This has substantially improved the representation of spatio‐temporal process dynamics and gives a more robust framework for projecting environmental change impacts. Copyright © 2016 The Authors Hydrological Processes Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Hyporheic exchange increases the potential for solute retention in streams by slowing downstream transport and increasing solute contact with the substrate. Hyporheic exchange may be a major mechanism to remove nutrients in semi‐arid watersheds, where livestock have damaged stream riparian zones and contributed nutrients to stream channels. Debris dams, such as beaver dams and anthropogenic log dams, may increase hyporheic interactions by slowing stream water velocity, increasing flow complexity and diverting water to the subsurface. Here, we report the results of chloride tracer injection experiments done to evaluate hyporheic interaction along a 320 m reach of Red Canyon Creek, a second order stream in the semi‐arid Wind River Range of Wyoming. The study site is part of a rangeland watershed managed by The Nature Conservancy of Wyoming, and used as a hydrologic field site by the University of Missouri Branson Geologic Field Station. The creek reach we investigated has debris dams and tight meanders that hypothetically should enhance hyporheic interaction. Breakthrough curves of chloride measured during the field experiment were modelled with OTIS‐P, a one‐dimensional, surface‐water, solute‐transport model from which we extracted the storage exchange rate α and cross‐sectional area of the storage zone As for hyporheic exchange. Along gaining reaches of the stream reach, short‐term hyporheic interactions associated with debris dams were comparable to those associated with severe meanders. In contrast, along the non‐gaining reach, stream water was diverted to the subsurface by debris dams and captured by large‐scale near‐stream flow paths. Overall, hyporheic exchange rates along Red Canyon Creek during snowmelt recession equal or exceed exchange rates observed during baseflow at other streams. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Groundwater surface water interaction in the hyporheic zone remains an important challenge for water resources management and ecosystem restoration. In heterogeneous stratified glacial sediments, reach‐scale environments contain an uneven distribution of focused groundwater flow occurring simultaneously with diffusely discharging groundwater. This results in a variation of stream‐aquifer interactions, where focused flow systems are able to temporally dominate exchange processes. The research presented here investigates the direct and indirect influences focused groundwater discharge exerts on the hyporheic zone during baseflow recession. Field results demonstrate that as diffuse sources of groundwater deplete during baseflow recession, focused groundwater discharge remains constant. During baseflow recession the hyporheic zone is unable to expand, while the high nitrate concentration from focused discharge changes the chemistry of the stream. The final result is a higher concentration of nitrate in the hyporheic zone as this altered surface water infiltrates into the subsurface. This indirect coupling of focused groundwater discharge and the hyporheic zone is unaccounted for in hyporheic studies at this time. Results indicate important implications for the potential reduction of agricultural degradation of water quality.  相似文献   

9.
The characteristics of karst aquifers are difficult to be determined due to their heterogeneous physical properties and lack of hydrogeological information. In this case study, we applied two methods for a comparative analysis of storage and drainage characteristics in upstream, midstream, and downstream of Houzhai cave stream basin. In the first method, Minimum Smoothed Method (MSM) is used to determine the proportion of baseflow to the total flow (Baseflow Index, BFI). In the second method, a bicarbonate‐base two‐end member mixing model is used to quantify the slow flow component and fast flow component. For both methods, slow flow and quick flow are quantified at three sampling sites, which provide useful information for the analysis of storage and drainage characteristics. The results from flow separation method and hydrogeochemical analysis show a consistently increasing trend of the proportion of slow flow to total flow from the upstream to downstream which indicates that the voids of highly conductive conduits and well‐connected fissures decrease along the flow paths in the Houzhai cave stream basin in southwest China. The upstream areas have a low proportion of baseflow which indicates a high drainage capacity due to high permeable conduits and well‐connected fissures. The downstream areas, on the contrary, have a high proportion of baseflow which indicates a high storage capacity and slow infiltration due to the predominant presence of matrix and poorly‐connected fissures. These numerical methods provide alternative ways to investigate the storage and drainage characteristics of karst aquifers where direct measurement are not available.  相似文献   

10.
James M. Buttle 《水文研究》2016,30(24):4644-4653
The potential for dynamic storage to serve as a metric of basin behaviour was assessed using data from five drainage basins with headwaters on the thick sand and gravel deposits of the Oak Ridges Moraine in southern Ontario, Canada. Dynamic storage was directly correlated with the ratio of variability of δ2H in streamflow relative to that in precipitation. This ratio has previously been shown to be inversely related to basin mean transit time (MTT), suggesting an inverse relationship between dynamic storage and MTT for the study basins. Dynamic storage was also directly correlated with interannual variability in stream runoff, baseflow and baseflow:runoff ratio, implying that basins with smaller dynamic storage have less interannual variability in their streamflow regimes. These preliminary results suggest that dynamic storage may serve as a readily derived and useful metric of basin behaviour for inter‐basin comparisons. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The rise in stream stage during high flow events (floods) can induce losing stream conditions, even along stream reaches that are gaining during baseflow conditions. The aquifer response to flood events can affect the geochemical composition of both near‐stream groundwater and post‐event streamflow, but the amount and persistence of recharged floodwater may differ as a function of local hydrogeologic forcings. As a result, this study focuses on how vertical flood recharge varies under different hydrogeologic forcings and the significance that recharge processes can have on groundwater and streamflow composition after floods. River and shallow groundwater samples were collected along three reaches of the Upper San Pedro River (Arizona, USA) before, during and after the 2009 and 2010 summer monsoon seasons. Tracer data from these samples indicate that subsurface floodwater propagation and residence times are strongly controlled by the direction and magnitude of the dominant stream–aquifer gradient. A reach that is typically strongly gaining shows minimal floodwater retention shortly after large events, whereas the moderately gaining and losing reaches can retain recharged floodwater from smaller events for longer periods. The moderately gaining reach likely returned flood recharge to the river as flow declined. These results indicate that reach‐scale differences in hydrogeologic forcing can control (i) the amount of local flood recharge during events and (ii) the duration of its subsurface retention and possible return to the stream during low‐flow periods. Our observations also suggest that the presence of floodwater in year‐round baseflow is not due to long‐term storage beneath the streambed along predominantly gaining reaches, so three alternative mechanisms are suggested: (i) repeated flooding that drives lateral redistribution of previously recharged floodwater, (ii) vertical recharge on the floodplain during overbank flow events and (iii) temporal variability in the stream–aquifer gradient due to seasonally varying water demands of riparian vegetation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Bruno Ambroise 《水文研究》2016,30(20):3560-3577
In the small Ringelbach research catchment, where studies on the water cycle components in a granitic mountainous environment have been conducted since 1976, the water‐saturated areas that are hydraulically connected to the outlet play a major role in the streamflow generation, as it is here that complex interactions between atmosphere, surface and ground waters take place. During baseflow recession periods, which may last several months between two groundwater recharge events, the atmospheric inputs of water and energy on these contributing areas only explain the streamflow fluctuations observed around the master recession curve, which defines the groundwater contribution: fluctuating above it in the case of precipitation input on these areas, below it in the case of evaporation output from these areas. Streamflow may therefore largely deviate from the master recession curve in the case of long, hot, dry spells. Detailed mapping has shown that their variable extent is well related to baseflow by a loglinear curve. On the other hand, a synthetic master recession curve, well fitted by a second‐order hyperbolic function, has been obtained from numerous pure recession periods. Both based on these two curves, a simple procedure and a simple model have been used to (i) validate the hypothesis that the connected saturated areas are the only permanent variable contributing areas and (ii) simulate the daily streamflow volumes over long baseflow recession periods by a water balance of the aquifer below these areas only. The storm runoff ratio for small to moderate rainfall events is indeed corresponding to the catchment saturated fraction at that time. The volume of daily streamflow oscillations is indeed corresponding to the evaporation at the potential rate from the saturated areas only. In both cases, streamflow naturally tends towards the master recession curve after the end of any atmospheric perturbation. Introducing these findings into TOPMODEL led to significantly improved simulation results during baseflow recession periods. The master recession curve may therefore be considered as a dynamic equilibrium curve. Together with the relationship between saturated extent and baseflow, it provides the main characteristics necessary to understand and model the interactions at this complex interface and the resulting daily streamflow variations during baseflow recession periods in this type of catchment. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Previous work has shown that streamflow response during baseflow conditions is a function of storage, but also that this functional relationship varies among seasons and catchments. Traditionally, hydrological models incorporate conceptual groundwater models consisting of linear or non‐linear storage–outflow functions. Identification of the right model structure and model parameterization however is challenging. The aim of this paper is to systematically test different model structures in a set of catchments where different aquifer types govern baseflow generation processes. Nine different two‐parameter conceptual groundwater models are applied with multi‐objective calibration to transform two different groundwater recharge series derived from a soil‐atmosphere‐vegetation transfer model into baseflow separated from streamflow data. The relative performance differences of the model structures allow to systematically improve the understanding of baseflow generation processes and to identify most appropriate model structures for different aquifer types. We found more versatile and more aquifer‐specific optimal model structures and elucidate the role of interflow, flow paths, recharge regimes and partially contributing storages. Aquifer‐specific recommendations of storage models were found for fractured and karstic aquifers, whereas large storage capacities blur the identification of superior model structures for complex and porous aquifers. A model performance matrix is presented, which highlights the joint effects of different recharge inputs, calibration criteria, model structures and aquifer types. The matrix is a guidance to improve groundwater model structures towards their representation of the dominant baseflow generation processes of specific aquifer types. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Complexity in simulating the hydrological response in large watersheds over long times has prompted a significant need for procedures for automatic calibration. Such a procedure is implemented in the basin‐scale hydrological model (BSHM), a physically based distributed parameter watershed model. BSHM simulates the most important basin‐scale hydrological processes, such as overland flow, groundwater flow and stream–aquifer interaction in watersheds. Here, the emphasis is on estimating the groundwater parameters with water levels in wells and groundwater baseflows selected as the calibration targets. The best set of parameters is selected from within plausible ranges of parameters by adjusting the values of hydraulic conductivity, storativity, groundwater recharge and stream bed permeability. The baseflow is determined from stream flow hydrographs by using an empirical scheme validated using a chemical approach to hydrograph separation. Field studies determined that the specific conductance for components of the composite hydrograph were sufficiently unique to make the chemical approach feasible. The method was applied to the Big Darby Creek Watershed, Ohio. The parameter set selected for the groundwater system provides a good fit with the estimated baseflow and observed water well data. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
Urbanization threatens headwater stream ecosystems globally. Watershed restoration practices, such as infiltration‐based stormwater management, are implemented to mitigate the detrimental effects of urbanization on aquatic ecosystems. However, their effectiveness for restoring hydrologic processes and watershed storage remains poorly understood. Our study used a comparative hydrology approach to quantify the effects of urban watershed restoration on watershed hydrologic function in headwater streams within the Coastal Plain of Maryland, USA. We selected 11 headwater streams that spanned an urbanization–restoration gradient (4 forested, 4 urban‐degraded, and 3 urban‐degraded) to evaluate changes in watershed hydrologic function from both urbanization and watershed restoration. Discrete discharge and continuous, high‐frequency rainfall‐stage monitoring were conducted in each watershed. These datasets were used to develop 6 hydrologic metrics describing changes in watershed storage, flowpath connectivity, or the resultant stream flow regime. The hydrological effects of urbanization were clearly observed in all metrics, but only 1 of the 3 restored watersheds exhibited partially restored hydrologic function. At this site, a larger minimum runoff threshold was observed relative to the urban‐degraded watersheds, suggesting enhanced infiltration of stormwater runoff within the restoration structure. However, baseflow in the stream draining this watershed remained low compared to the forested reference streams, suggesting that enhanced infiltration of stormwater runoff did not recharge subsurface storage zones contributing to stream baseflow. The highly variable responses among the 3 restored watersheds were likely due to the spatial heterogeneity of urban development, including the level of impervious cover and extent of the storm sewer network. This study yielded important knowledge on how restoration strategies, such as infiltration‐based stormwater management, modulated—or failed to modulate—hydrological processes affected by urbanization, which will help improve the design of future urban watershed management strategies. More broadly, we highlighted a multimetric approach that can be used to monitor the restoration of headwater stream ecosystems in disturbed landscapes.  相似文献   

16.
Land use/cover (LULC) and climate change are two main factors affecting watershed hydrology. In this paper, individual and combined impacts of LULC and climate change on hydrologic processes were analysed applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool in a coastal Alabama watershed in USA. Temporally and spatially downscaled Global Circulation Model outputs predict a slight increase in precipitation in the study area, which is also projected to experience substantial urban growth in the future. Changes in flow frequency and volume in the 2030s (2016–2040) compared to a baseline period (1984–2008) at daily, monthly and annual time scales were explored. A redistribution of daily streamflow is projected when either climate or LULC change was considered. High flows are predicted to increase, while low flows are expected to decrease. Combined change effect results in a more noticeable and uneven distribution of daily streamflow. Monthly average streamflow and surface runoff are projected to increase in spring and winter, but especially in fall. LULC change does not have a significant effect on monthly average streamflow, but the change affects partitioning of streamflow, causing higher surface runoff and lower baseflow. The combined effect leads to a dramatic increase in monthly average streamflow with a stronger increasing trend in surface runoff and decreasing trend in baseflow. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
Jason A. Leach  Dan Moore 《水文研究》2017,31(18):3160-3177
Stream temperature controls a number of biological, chemical, and physical processes occurring in aquatic environments. Transient snow cover and advection associated with lateral throughflow inputs can have a dominant influence on stream thermal regimes for headwater catchments in the rain‐on‐snow zone. Most existing stream temperature models lack the ability to properly simulate these processes. We developed and evaluated a conceptual‐parametric catchment‐scale stream temperature model that includes the role of transient snow cover and lateral advection associated with throughflow. The model consists of routines for simulating canopy interception, snow accumulation and melt, hillslope throughflow runoff and temperature, and stream channel energy exchange processes. The model was used to predict discharge and stream temperature for a small forested headwater catchment near Vancouver, Canada, using long‐term (1963–2013) weather data to compute model forcing variables. The model was evaluated against 4 years of observed stream temperature. The model generally predicted daily mean stream temperature accurately (annual RMSE between 0.57 and 1.24 °C) although it overpredicted daily summer stream temperatures by up to 3 °C during extended low streamflow conditions. Model development and testing provided insights on the roles of advection associated with lateral throughflow, channel interception of snow, and surface–subsurface water interactions on stream thermal regimes. This study shows that a relatively simple but process‐based model can provide reasonable stream temperature predictions for forested headwater catchments located in the rain‐on‐snow zone.  相似文献   

18.
Inter‐basin differences in streamflow response to changes in regional hydroclimatology may reflect variations in storage characteristics that control the retention and release of water inputs. These aspects of storage could mediate a basin's sensitivity to climate change. The hypothesis that temporal trends in stream baseflow exhibit a more muted reaction to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration for basins with greater storage was tested on the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in Southern Ontario, Canada. Long‐term (>25 years) baseflow trends for 16 basins were compared to corresponding trends in precipitation amount and type and in potential evapotranspiration as well as shorter trends in groundwater levels for monitoring wells on the ORM. Inter‐basin differences in storage properties were characterized using physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, and streamflow metrics. The latter included the slope of the basin's flow duration curve and basin dynamic storage. Most basins showed temporal increases in baseflow, consistent with limited evidence of increases and decreases in regional precipitation and snowfall: precipitation ratio, respectively, and recent increases in groundwater recharge along the crest of the ORM. Baseflow trend magnitude was uncorrelated to basin physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, or flow duration curve characteristics. However, it was positively related to a basin's dynamic storage, particularly for basins with limited coverage of open water and wetlands. The dynamic storage approach assumes that a basin behaves as a first‐order dynamical system, and extensive open water and wetland areas in a basin may invalidate this assumption. Previous work suggested that smaller dynamic storage was linked to greater damping of temporal variations in water inputs and reduced interannual variability in streamflow regime. Storage and release of water inputs to a basin may assist in mediating baseflow response to temporal changes in regional hydroclimatology and may partly account for inter‐basin differences in that response. Such storage characteristics should be considered when forecasting the impacts of climate change on regional streamflow.  相似文献   

19.
Successful applications of stochastic models for simulating and predicting daily stream temperature have been reported in the literature. These stochastic models have been generally tested on small rivers and have used only air temperature as an exogenous variable. This study investigates the stochastic modelling of daily mean stream water temperatures on the Moisie River, a relatively large unregulated river located in Québec, Canada. The objective of the study is to compare different stochastic approaches previously used on small streams to relate mean daily water temperatures to air temperatures and streamflow indices. Various stochastic approaches are used to model the water temperature residuals, representing short‐term variations, which were obtained by subtracting the seasonal components from water temperature time‐series. The first three models, a multiple regression, a second‐order autoregressive model, and a Box and Jenkins model, used only lagged air temperature residuals as exogenous variables. The root‐mean‐square error (RMSE) for these models varied between 0·53 and 1·70 °C and the second‐order autoregressive model provided the best results. A statistical methodology using best subsets regression is proposed to model the combined effect of discharge and air temperature on stream temperatures. Various streamflow indices were considered as additional independent variables, and models with different number of variables were tested. The results indicated that the best model included relative change in flow as the most important streamflow index. The RMSE for this model was of the order of 0·51 °C, which shows a small improvement over the first three models that did not include streamflow indices. The ridge regression was applied to this model to alleviate the potential statistical inadequacies associated with multicollinearity. The amplitude and sign of the ridge regression coefficients seem to be more in agreement with prior expectations (e.g. positive correlation between water temperature residuals of different lags) and make more physical sense. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
As a response to climate change, shifting rainfall trends including increased multi-year droughts and an escalation in extreme rainfall events are expected in the Middle East. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential impact of these shifting trends on stream flow in the Jordan River and its tributaries. We use a non-homogeneous hidden Markov model to generate artificial daily rainfall simulations which capture independently shifting trends of increased droughts and escalated extreme. These simulations are then used as input into a hydrological model calibrated for the upper catchments of the Jordan River to compare the impact on stream flow and water resources between the different rainfall scenarios. We compare the predicted baseflow and surface flow components of the tested watersheds, and find that while an increase in extreme rainfall events increases the intensity and frequency of surface flow, the over all flow to the Jordan River, and the characteristics of the baseflow in the Jordan River system is not largely impacted. In addition, though it has been suggested that in the case of a multi-year drought the karstic nature of the aquifer might lead to more intense, non-linear reductions in stream flow, here we quantify and show the conditions when annual stream flow reduce linearly with rainfall, and when these relations will become non-linear.  相似文献   

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