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1.
The most popular practice for analysing nonstationarity of flood series is to use a fixed single‐type probability distribution incorporated with the time‐varying moments. However, the type of probability distribution could be both complex because of distinct flood populations and time‐varying under changing environments. To allow the investigation of this complex nature, the time‐varying two‐component mixture distributions (TTMD) method is proposed in this study by considering the time variations of not only the moments of its component distributions but also the weighting coefficients. Having identified the existence of mixed flood populations based on circular statistics, the proposed TTMD was applied to model the annual maximum flood series of two stations in the Weihe River basin, with the model parameters calibrated by the meta‐heuristic maximum likelihood method. The performance of TTMD was evaluated by different diagnostic plots and indexes and compared with stationary single‐type distributions, stationary mixture distributions and time‐varying single‐type distributions. The results highlighted the advantages of TTMD with physically‐based covariates for both stations. Besides, the optimal TTMD models were considered to be capable of settling the issue of nonstationarity and capturing the mixed flood populations satisfactorily. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
Sheng Yue 《水文研究》2000,14(14):2575-2588
Complex hydrological events such as floods always appear to be multivariate events that are characterized by a few correlated variables. A complete understanding of these events needs to investigate joint probabilistic behaviours of these correlated variables. The lognormal distribution is one of frequently selected candidates for flood‐frequency analysis. The multivariate lognormal distribution will serve as an important tool for analysing a multivariate flood episode. This article presents a procedure for using the bivariate lognormal distribution to describe the joint distributions of correlated flood peaks and volumes, and correlated flood volumes and durations. Joint distributions, conditional distributions, and the associated return periods of these random variables can be readily derived from their marginal distributions. The approach is verified using observed streamflow data from the Nord river basin, located in the Province of Quebec, Canada. The theoretical distributions show a good fit to observed ones. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
Multicomponent probability distributions such as the two‐component Gumbel distribution are sometimes applied to annual flood maxima when individual floods are seen as belonging to different classes, depending on physical processes or time of year. However, hydrological inconsistencies may arise if only nonclassified annual maxima are available to estimate the component distribution parameters. In particular, an unconstrained best fit to annual flood maxima may yield some component distributions with a high probability of simulating floods with negative discharge. In such situations, multicomponent distributions cannot be justified as an improved approximation to a local physical reality of mixed flood types, even though a good data fit is achieved. This effect usefully illustrates that a good match to data is no guarantee against degeneracy of hydrological models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
长江流域历史水旱灾害分析   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  
黄忠恕  李春龙 《湖泊科学》2003,15(Z1):210-215
长江流域有丰富和长期的水旱灾害史料,最早的水灾和旱灾记载有2000余年的历史,经过系统整理和分析的历史水旱灾害资料有1000余年的旱涝型年表和500余年的旱涝分布图集.在以上资料基础上,对长江流域历史水旱灾害的地域分布特性和时间变化规律进行了初步分析:500余年历史水旱灾害的地域分布显示,流域水旱灾害总体特征是水灾重于旱灾,各级水旱灾害频率的地域分布极不均匀,存在着显著的灾害多发和少发地带,它们与自然地理环境、水系特征、气候条件和社会经济条件等因素有关;1000余年旱涝型年表分析表明,长江流域洪涝和干旱频次在时间上的非均匀分布并非完全随机,表现出多种时间尺度的年际变化特征,其中主要表现为约100a上下的大干湿气候期变化及40a左右的小旱涝期振动.  相似文献   

5.
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6.
In much of western United States destructive floods after wildfire are frequently caused by localized, short‐duration convective thunderstorms; however, little is known about post‐fire flooding from longer‐duration, low‐intensity mesoscale storms. In this study we estimate and compare peak flows from convective and mesoscale floods following the 2012 High Park Fire in the ungaged 15.5 km2 Skin Gulch basin in the northcentral Colorado Front Range. The convective storm on 6 July 2012 came just days after the wildfire was contained. Radar data indicated that the total rainfall was 20–47 mm, and the maximum rainfall intensities (upwards of 50 mm h?1) were concentrated over portions of the watershed that burned at high severity. The mesoscale storm on 9–15 September 2013 produced 220–240 mm of rain but had maximum 15‐min intensities of only 25–32 mm h?1. Peak flows for each flood were estimated using three independent techniques. Our best estimate using a 2D hydraulic model was 28 m3 s?1 km?2 for the flood following the convective storm, placing it among the largest rainfall‐runoff floods per unit area in the United States. In contrast, the flood associated with the mesoscale flood was only 6 m3 s?1 km?2, but the long‐duration flood caused extensive channel incision and widening, indicating that this storm was much more geomorphically effective. The peak flow estimates for the 2013 flood had a higher relative uncertainty and this stemmed from whether we used pre‐ or post‐flood channel topography. The results document the extent to which a high and moderate severity forest fire can greatly increase peak flows and alter channel morphology, illustrate how indirect peak flow estimates have larger errors than is generally assumed, and indicate that the magnitude of post‐fire floods and geomorphic change can be affected by the timing, magnitude, duration, and sequence of rainstorms. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
The mountain headwater Bow River at Banff, Alberta, Canada, was subject to a large flood in June 2013, over which considerable debate has ensued regarding its probability of occurrence. It is therefore instructive to consider what information long‐term streamflow discharge records provide about environmental change in the Upper Bow River basin above Banff. Though protected as part of Banff National Park, since 1885, the basin has experienced considerable climate and land cover changes, each of which has the potential to impact observations, and hence the interpretations of flood probability. The Bow River at Banff hydrometric station is one of Canada's longest‐operating reference hydrological basin network stations and so has great value for assessing changes in flow regime over time. Furthermore, the station measures a river that provides an extremely important water supply for Calgary and irrigation district downstream and so is of great interest for assessing regional water security. These records were examined for changes in several flood attributes and to determine whether flow changes may have been related to landscape change within the basin as caused by forest fires, conversion from grasslands to forest with fire suppression, and regional climate variations and/or trends. Floods in the Upper Bow River are generated by both snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events, the latter type which include flood events generated by spatially and temporally large storms such as occurred in 2013. The two types of floods also have different frequency characteristics. Snowmelt and ROS flood attributes were not correlated significantly with any climate index or with burned area except that snowmelt event duration correlated negatively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. While there is a significant negative trend in all floods over the past 100 years, when separated based on generating process, neither snowmelt floods nor large ROS floods associated with mesoscale storms show any trends over time. Despite extensive changes to the landscape of the basin and in within the climate system, the flood regime remains unchanged, something identified at smaller scales in the region but never at larger scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
The occurrence of devastating floods in the British uplands during the first two decades of the twenty‐first century poses two key questions: (1) are recent events unprecedented in terms of their frequency and magnitude; and (2) is climate and/or land‐use change driving the apparent upturn in flooding? Conventional methods of analysing instrumental flow records cannot answer these questions because upland catchments are usually ungauged, and where records do exist they rarely provide more than 30–40 years of data. In this paper we analyse all lichen‐dated upland flood records in the United Kingdom (UK) to establish the longer‐term context and causes of recent severe flooding. Our new analysis of torrential sedimentary deposits shows that twenty‐first century floods are not unprecedented in terms of both their frequency (they were more frequent before 1960) and magnitude (the biggest events occurred during the seventeenth–nineteenth centuries). However, in some areas recent floods have either equalled or exceeded the largest historical events. The majority of recent floods have been triggered by torrential summer downpours related to a marked negative phase of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) between 2007 and 2012. It is of concern that historical data suggests there is far more capacity in the North Atlantic climate system to produce wetter and more prolonged flood‐rich periods than hitherto experienced in the twenty‐first century. Looking forwards, an increased likelihood of weather extremes due to climate change means that geomorphological based flood series extensions must be placed at the centre of flood risk assessment in the UK uplands and in similar areas worldwide. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Casuarina cunninghamiana Miq. is an important rheophytic tree in New South Wales, Australia because it is fast growing and can tolerate flood disturbance. Widden Brook is an active sand‐bed stream that has widened substantially since initial European settlement in the early 1800s and is characterized by high flood variability and multi‐decadal periods of alternating high and low flood frequency, called flood‐ and drought‐dominated regimes. Channel contraction by bench formation is currently occurring. Conversion of coarse‐grained point bars to benches is an important process of channel contraction. When point bars grow to a height where suspended sediment is first deposited to thicknesses of at least 50 mm by sub‐bankfull floods, rapid establishment of C. cunninghamiana occurs. As the trees grow they partially block bankside flows, thereby locally reducing flow velocity and inducing further deposition on the benches. Such synergistic relationships between bar height and inundation, fine‐grained sediment deposition, tree establishment and the development of a bankside low current velocity zone are fundamental for bench development. Size‐class frequency data demonstrate that C. cunninghamiana on the benches consists of pure even‐aged stands with most trees clustering near the average diameter. Two benches have similar size class frequency distributions but a third has significantly smaller trees. Recruitment on benches is episodic, may occur in areas open to grazing and is dependent on favourable conditions that allow tree survival. These favourable conditions include high seed availability, low levels of competition, deposition of fine sediments and adequate moisture for tree growth. Although C. cunninghamiana germinates on bars, seedlings are eliminated by prolonged inundation or flood scour and do not reach maturity. Recurring catastrophic floods or a sequence of large floods in rapid succession episodically destroy benches by substantial channel widening and initiate a new phase of bar and bench development. A conceptual model of the conversion of point bars to benches by thick mud deposition and C. cunninghamiana recruitment has been developed for sand‐bed streams draining similar sandstone catchments. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
The effects of large floods on river morphology are variable and poorly understood. In this study, we apply multi‐temporal datasets collected with small unmanned aircraft systems (UASs) to analyze three‐dimensional morphodynamic changes associated with an extreme flood event that occurred from 19 to 23 June 2013 on the Elbow River, Alberta. We documented reach‐scale spatial patterns of erosion and deposition using high‐resolution (4–5 cm/pixel) orthoimagery and digital elevation models (DEMs) produced from photogrammetry. Significant bank erosion and channel widening occurred, with an average elevation change of ?0.24 m. The channel pattern was reorganized and overall elevation variation increased as the channel adjusted to full mobilization of most of the bed surface sediments. To test the extent to which geomorphic changes can be predicted from initial conditions, we compared shear stresses from a two‐dimensional hydrodynamic model of peak discharge to critical shear stresses for bed surface sediment sizes. We found no relation between modeled normalized shear stresses and patterns of scour and fill, confirming the complex nature of sediment mobilization and flux in high‐magnitude events. However, comparing modeled peak flows through the pre‐ and post‐flood topography showed that the flood resulted in an adjustment that contributes to overall stability, with lower percentages of bed area below thresholds for full mobility in the post‐flood geomorphic configuration. Overall, this work highlights the potential of UAS‐based remote sensing for measuring three‐dimensional changes in fluvial settings and provides a detailed analysis of potential relationships between flood forces and geomorphic change. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
The index flood procedure coupled with the L‐moments method is applied to the annual flood peaks data taken at all stream‐gauging stations in Turkey having at least 15‐year‐long records. First, screening of the data is done based on the discordancy measure (Di) in terms of the L‐moments. Homogeneity of the total geographical area of Turkey is tested using the L‐moments based heterogeneity measure, H, computed on 500 simulations generated using the four parameter Kappa distribution. The L‐moments analysis of the recorded annual flood peaks data at 543 gauged sites indicates that Turkey as a whole is hydrologically heterogeneous, and 45 of 543 gauged sites are discordant which are discarded from further analyses. The catchment areas of these 543 sites vary from 9·9 to 75121 km2 and their mean annual peak floods vary from 1·72 to 3739·5 m3 s?1. The probability distributions used in the analyses, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method are the general extreme values (GEV), generalized logistic (GLO), generalized normal (GNO), Pearson type III (PE3), generalized Pareto (GPA), and five‐parameter Wakeby (WAK). Based on the L‐moment ratio diagrams and the |Zdist|‐statistic criteria, the GEV distribution is identified as the robust distribution for the study area (498 gauged sites). Hence, for estimation of flood magnitudes of various return periods in Turkey, a regional flood frequency relationship is developed using the GEV distribution. Next, the quantiles computed at all of 543 gauged sites by the GEV and the Wakeby distributions are compared with the observed values of the same probability based on two criteria, mean absolute relative error and determination coefficient. Results of these comparisons indicate that both distributions of GEV and Wakeby, whose parameters are computed by the L‐moments method, are adequate in predicting quantile estimates. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
M. Nouh 《水文研究》2006,20(11):2393-2413
Real data on wadi flood flows from Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Oman, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain and Qatar were used to develop methodologies for the prediction of annual maximum flows and average monthly flows in the Arabian Gulf states. For the prediction of annual maximum floods, three methods have been investigated. In the first method, regional curves were developed and used together with the mean annual flood flow, estimated from the characteristics of the drainage basin, to estimate flood flows at a location in the basin. The second method fits data to various probability distribution functions, with a developed methodology introduced to account for floods generated by more than one system of climate, and the best fitted function was used for flood estimates. In the third method, only floods over a threshold, which depends on characteristics of the drainage basin, were considered and modelled. For the prediction of average monthly flows, stochastic simulation approaches of flood frequency analysis were used. Each of the prediction methods was verified by being applied in 40 different drainage basins. Based on the results obtained, recommendations were made on the best method to be applied (at present) by design engineers in the Arabian Gulf states. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

13.
Flash floods represent one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters worldwide. The hydrological analysis of a flash flood event contributes in the understanding of the runoff creation process. This study presents the analysis of some flash flood events that took place in a complex geomorphological Mediterranean River basin. The objective of the present work is to develop the thresholds for a real‐time flash flood forecasting model in a complex geomorphological watershed, based on high‐frequency data from strategically located hydrological and meteorological telemetric stations. These stations provide hourly real‐time data which were used to determine hydrological and meteorological parameters. The main characteristics of various hydrographs specified in this study were the runoff coefficients, lag time, time to peak, and the maximum potential retention. The estimation of these hydrometeorological parameters provides the necessary information in order to successfully manage flash floods events. Especially, the time to peak is the most significant hydrological parameter that affects the response time of an oncoming flash flood event. A study of the above parameters is essential for the specification of thresholds which are related to the geomorphological characteristics of the river basin, the rainfall accumulation of an event, the rainfall intensity, the threshold runoff through karstic area, the season during which the rainfall takes place and the time intervals between the rainstorms that affect the soil moisture conditions. All these factors are combined into a real‐time‐threshold flash flood prediction model. Historical flash flood events at the downstream are also used for the validation of the model. An application of the proposed model is presented for the Koiliaris River basin in Crete, Greece. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Some recent research on fluvial processes suggests the idea that some hydrological variables, such as flood flows, are upper-bounded. However, most probability distributions that are currently employed in flood frequency analysis are unbounded to the right. This paper describes an exploratory study on the joint use of an upper-bounded probability distribution and non-systematic flood information, within a Bayesian framework. Accordingly, the current PMF maximum discharge appears as a reference value and a reasonable estimate of the upper-bound for maximum flows, despite the fact that PMF determination is not unequivocal and depends strongly on the available data. In the Bayesian context, the uncertainty on the PMF can be included into the analysis by considering an appropriate prior distribution for the maximum flows. In the sequence, systematic flood records, historical floods, and paleofloods can be included into a compound likelihood function which is then used to update the prior information on the upper-bound. By combining a prior distribution describing the uncertainties of PMF estimates along with various sources of flood data into a unified Bayesian approach, the expectation is to obtain improved estimates of the upper-bound. The application example was conducted with flood data from the American river basin, near the Folsom reservoir, in California, USA. The results show that it is possible to put together concepts that appear to be incompatible: the deterministic estimate of PMF, taken as a theoretical limit for floods, and the frequency analysis of maximum flows, with the inclusion of non-systematic data. As compared to conventional analysis, the combination of these two concepts within the logical context of Bayesian theory, contributes an advance towards more reliable estimates of extreme floods.  相似文献   

15.
A 2D depth‐averaged model has been developed for simulating water flow, sediment transport and morphological changes in gravel‐bed rivers. The model was validated with a series of laboratory experiments and then applied to the Nove reach of the Brenta River (Northern Italy) to assess its bed material transport, interpret channel response to a series of intensive flood events (R.I. ≈ 10 years) and provide a possible evolutionary scenario for the medium term. The study reach is 1400 m long with a mean slope of 0.0039 m m?1. High‐resolution digital terrain models were produced combining LiDAR data with colour bathymetry techniques. Extensive field sedimentological surveys were also conducted for surface and subsurface material. Data were uploaded in the model and the passage of two consecutive high intensity floods was simulated. The model was run under several hypotheses of sediment supply: one considering substantial equilibrium between sediment input and transport capacity, and the others reducing the sediment supply. The sediment supply was then calibrated comparing channel morphological changes as observed in the field and calculated by the model. Annual bed material transport was assessed and compared with other techniques. Low‐frequency floods (R.I. ≈ 1.5 years) are expected to produce negligible changes in the channel while high floods may erode banks rather than further incising the channel bed. Location and distribution of erosion and deposition areas within the Nove reach were predicted with acceptable biases stemming from imperfections of the model and the specified initial, boundary and forcing conditions. A medium‐term evolutionary scenario simulation underlined the different response to and impact of a consecutive sequence of floods. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
Relations among hydroclimatic and channel planform changes on Squamish River are presented for the period 1956–2007. Squamish River basin occupies 3600 km2 of mountainous terrain in south‐western British Columbia, about 50 km north of Vancouver. The magnitude, volume and duration of extreme floods (Q ≥ 1500 m3/s) exhibit respective temporal increases of 50, 450 and 300%. The increase in extreme floods is attributed to the intensification of late‐season (August–December) Pacific storms that have produced increases in precipitation amounts, intensity and duration of respectively 340, 200 and 200% over the same period. Changes in floodplain‐surface area calculated from the geographic information system (GIS) differencing of sequential large‐scale aerial photographs indicate that the rate of geomorphic change in Squamish River has accelerated during the 1980s to the mid‐1990s. Among four study reaches of varying planform, erosional, depositional and cumulative changes in floodplain surface‐area have rapidly increased. Channel‐change activity after 1980 has increased by a factor of two to six compared with the period prior to 1980. Erosion is currently outpacing deposition in the majority of study reaches. Although channel geometry generally exhibits no uniform pattern of response to the increase in extreme floods, the meandering reaches have straightened over the duration of the study period. The increase in the magnitude and duration of the annual flood appears to be the principal cause of this recent acceleration of channel change. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

17.
This paper examines the timing, nature and magnitude of river response in upland, piedmont and lowland reaches of the Tyne basin, northern England, to high-frequency (20–30 year) changes in climate and flood regime since 1700 AD. Over this period fluvial activity has been characterized by alternating phases of river-bed incision and stability coinciding with non-random, decadal-scale fluctuations in flood frequency and hydroclimate that appear to be linked to changes in large-scale upper atmospheric circulation patterns. Episodes of widespread channel bed incision (1760–1799, 1875–1894, 1955–1969) result from a higher frequency of large floods (> 20 year return period) and cool, wet climate under meridional circulation regimes. Phases of more moderate floods (5–20 year return period), corresponding to zonal circulation types (1820–1874, 1920–1954), are characterized by enhanced lateral reworking and sediment transfer in upper reaches of the catchment, and channel narrowing and infilling downstream. Rates of fluvial activity are reduced in intermediate periods (1800–1819, 1895–1919) with no dominant circulation regime associated with lower flood frequency and magnitude. The results of this study provide a valuable guide for forecasting probable drainage basin and channel response to future climate change.  相似文献   

18.
The frequency of flooding is often presumed to increase with climate change because of projected increases in rainfall intensities. In this paper, using 50‐plus years of historical discharge and meteorological data from three watersheds in different physiographic regions of New York State, USA, we find that annual maximum stream discharges are associated with 20% or less of the annual maximum rainfall events. Instead of rainfall events, approximately 20% of annual maximum stream discharges are associated with annual maximum snowmelt events while 60% of annual maximum discharges are associated with moderate rainfall amounts and very wet soil conditions. To explore the potential for changes in future flood risk, we employed a compound frequency distribution that assumes annual maximum discharges can be modelled by combining the cumulative distribution functions of discharges resulting from annual maximum rainfall, annual maximum snowmelt, and occurrences of moderate rain on wet soils. Basing on a compound frequency distribution comprised of univariate general extreme value (GEV) and gamma distributions, we found that a hypothetical 20% increase in the magnitude of rainfall‐related stream discharge results in little change in 96th percentile annual maximum discharge. For the 99th percentile discharge, two waterbodies in our study had a 10% or less increase in annual maximum discharge when annual maximum rainfall‐related discharges increased 20% while the third waterbody had a 16% increase in annual maximum discharges. Additionally, in some cases, annual maximum discharges could be offset by a reduction in the discharge resulting from annual maximum snowmelt events. While only intended as a heuristic tool to explore the interaction among different flood‐causing mechanisms, use of a compound flood frequency distribution suggests a case can be made that not all waterbodies in humid, cold regions will see extensive changes in flooding due to increased rainfall intensities. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

19.
In this study, a dynamic flood‐frequency analysis model considering the storm coverage effect is proposed and applied to six sub‐basins in the Pyungchang River basin, Korea. The model proposed is composed of the rectangular pulse Poisson process model for rainfall, the Soil Conservation Service curve number method for infiltration and the geomorphoclimatic instantaneous unit hydrograph for runoff estimation. Also, the model developed by Marco and Valdes is adopted for quantifying the storm‐coverage characteristics. By comparing the results from the same model with and without the storm‐coverage effect consideration, we could quantify the storm‐coverage effect on the flood‐frequency analysis. As a result of that, we found the storm‐coverage effect was so significant that overestimation of the design flood was unavoidable without its consideration. This also becomes more serious for larger basins where the probability of complete storm coverage is quite low. However, for smaller basins, the limited number of rain gauges is found to hamper the proper quantification of the storm‐coverage characteristics. Provided with a relationship curve between the basin size and the storm coverage (as in this study), this problem could be overcome with an acceptable accuracy level. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.
Hyperconcentrated floods, with sediment concentrations higher than 200 kg/m3, occur frequently in the Yellow River and its tributaries on the Loess Plateau. This paper studies the fluvial hydraulics of hyperconcentrated floods by statistical analysis and comparison with low sediment concentration floods. The fluvial process induced by hyperconcentrated floods is extremely rapid. The river morphology may be altered more at a faster rate by one hyperconcentrated flood than by low sediment concentration floods over a decade. The vertical sediment concentration distribution in hyperconcentrated floods is homogeneous. The Darcy–Weisbach coefficient of hyperconcentrated floods varies with the Reynolds number in the same way as normal open channel flows but a representative viscosity is used to replace the viscosity, η. If the concentration is not extremely high and the Reynolds number is larger than 2000, the flow is turbulent and the Darcy–Weisbach coefficient for the hyperconcentrated floods is almost the same as low sediment concentration floods. Serious channel erosion, which is referred to as ‘ripping up the bottom’ in Chinese, occurs in narrow‐deep channels during hyperconcentrated floods. However, in wide‐shallow channels, hyperconcentrated floods may result in serious sedimentation. Moreover, a hyperconcentrated flood may cause the channel to become narrower and deeper, thus, reducing the flood stage by more than 1 m if the flood event lasts longer than one day. The fluvial process during hyperconcentrated floods also changes the propagation of flood waves. Successive waves may catch up with and overlap the first wave, thus, increasing the peak discharge of the flood wave during flood propagation along the river course. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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