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"地震预报发展规划"工作组 《中国地震》2010,26(1)
本文简要回顾了以往地震预报实验场的经验教训,讨论了新一代地震预报实验场的实施策略。汲取汶川地震的经验启示,本文提出"地震博弈"策略,即考虑中长期地震预测的可用性与不确定性,在监测与实验系统设计中考虑地震活动和地震构造相依的区域模型。对于特定的活动断裂或活动地块边界带的潜在强震段落,设置适应多种孕震模型的"想定地震破裂",针对地震孕育的"想定模式"设计观测项目和监测系统。这一系统以地震成因和孕震模型的有效约束、"预期"前兆的有效监测、预测/预报效能的有效检验为导向。从技术角度,本文提出将地震预报实验场作为一个"大科学工程",强调复杂的多层次、多组分技术系统性能的稳健性,以及为确保与地震有效的"近距离接触"的系统可持续性。 相似文献
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八、第三代地下流体地震短临预报方法的探索由于地震预报近一年来没有取得突破性进展，特别是由于美国帕克菲尔德实验场的关闭、日本第７个地震预报五年计划制定中出现的争论以及我国滇西实验场至今尚未发生预测中的地震等事实，国内外地震预报科学探索正面临着严峻的考验... 相似文献
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为推动地震预报实验场工作,加强地震预报研究,国家地震局滇西地震预报实验场办公室和国家地震局地球物理研究所编辑室联合组织的《地震实验场与地震预报译文集》将于1987年年底前出版。该专集由《世界地震译丛》编辑部编辑,组织选译了美、苏、日、希腊和土耳其等国的地震 相似文献
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滇西地震预报实验场经过近7年建设现已初具规模,成为继京津唐地震预报实验场之后我国的第二个地震预报实验场.1980年以来,我国地震学界已有1万多人次来这里进行地震监测研究.据实验场负责人介绍,建立实验场是地震预报由经验型过渡到实用化的重要途径.我国建立这个实验场的目标是,综合运用测震、形变、水化、地磁等观测手段,实验探索 相似文献
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中国地震学会地震预报专业委员会 《国际地震动态》2006,(1):45-46
2005年6月8—15日,中国地震学会地震预报专业委员会和广西壮族自治区地震局在北海联合召开地震海啸与地震预报实验场学术研讨会。本次会议的主要内容为:①印度洋8.7级地震对我国的影响及地震海啸的科学问题;②“十一·五”地震预报实验场的科学问题和实施方案研讨;③地震预测新 相似文献
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山崎断层地震预报实验场是日本地震学界为探索地震发生的规律、实现地震预报的实用化目标而大力开展的一项重要实验研究项目。本文较系统地概述了日本地震学界地震预报研究的思路,选定山崎断层作为地震预报实验场的条件,地震预报实验场的做法,实验场在地震预报研究中的作用,山崎断层地震预报实验场的特点及其与苏美等国的实验场的比较,十年来实验场在一些主要科研项目中所取得的进展;尤其是在综合观测与综合预报研究中取得的进展。最后,还介绍了日本地震学界对如何进一步搞好地震预报实验场的设想。 相似文献
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正我国大陆破坏性地震多发生在深度为5—25 km的地壳层,对于地壳层物理参数的动态监测是实现地震预报的一个行之有效的方法。通过建立观测量与地震层介质参数的关系,实现对地震层物理参数的动态监测是地震预报的一种根本办法。近代地震学很早就提出,通过监测由地壳内部应力积累引起的地震波速变化来预报地震。天然地震和人工震源是人类探测地下结构的主要手段。人工震源克服了天然地震的时空分布不均匀、重复性差、震源位置不确定、信号源弱等缺陷,已成为"照亮"地下介质并且是地 相似文献
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Some Thoughts on the Earthquake Science Experimental Site——The Underground Cloud Map 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
The Western Yunnan Earthquake Predication Test Site set up jointly by the China Earthquake Administration, the National Science Foundation Commission of America, and United States Geological Survey has played an important role in development of early earthquake research work in China. Due to various objective reasons, most of the predicted targets in the earthquake prediction test site have not been achieved, and the development has been hindered. In recent years, the experiment site has been reconsidered, and renamed the “Earthquake Science Experimental Site”. Combined with the current development of seismology and the practical needs of disaster prevention and mitigation, we propose adding the “Underground Cloud Map” as the new direction of the experimental site. Using highly repeatable, environmentally friendly and safe airgun sources, we could send constant seismic signals, which realizes continuous monitoring of subsurface velocity changes. Utilizing the high-resolution 3-D crustal structure from ambient noise tomography, we could obtain 4-D (3-D space + 1-D time) images of subsurface structures, which we termed the “Underground Cloud Map”. The “Underground Cloud Map” can reflect underground velocity and stress changes, providing new means for the earthquake monitoring forecast nationwide, which promotes the conversion of experience-based earthquake prediction to physics-based prediction. 相似文献
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本文认为:纪念邢台地震40周年,应特别弘扬邢台地震现场工作经验,彰显实验基地效应;要加强地震仪器研制、监测(探测)和预报这3条链路的建设;加强大型地震探测预报试验场建设;着手编撰地震探测预报理论书籍。 相似文献
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In order to examine the applicability of ground‐shaking mapping techniques to a near‐field earthquake, a peak ground velocity map of the 1995 Hyogo‐ken Nanbu, Japan earthquake computed from seismic zoning methods that consider the effects of geological conditions is compared with the actual observed intensity map. When computing the ground‐shaking map, the site amplification at each site is calculated in terms of the average shear‐wave velocity of the ground estimated from the corresponding geomorphological conditions. This map shows a relatively good agreement with the observed intensity map. However, the computations provide smaller values for certain disastrous areas of the earthquake, where the effects on ground motion of a deep, irregular underground structure have been reported. The effect of such structures on site response is examined implementing 2D FEM analyses, thereby being also incorporated into the method. Results considering the effect of the irregular underground structure show better agreement with the observed intensity map. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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To establish an experimental, practical and open scientific experimental platform for earthquake monitoring and prediction, with reference to that of the southern California earthquake center(SCEC), China Earthquake Administration initiated a project for an experimental field in Sichuan and Yunnan Province in 2014. The chosen area is a seismically active region in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan plateau. A series of work compiling basic maps have been launched to collect fundamental data of this area including geologic structure, earthquake geology, geophysics, geodesy, and geochemistry. The map of earthquake surface ruptures in this region is one of these basic maps. This paper presents the compilation of this map. It includes earthquake epicenters, earthquake surface ruptures, faults, strata, magmatic rocks, and geographical data. This work summarized 87 destructive earthquakes, and 22 earthquake surface rupture zones, and analyzed the distribution characterization of earthquake epicenters, strata and magmatic rocks. The content in the map is reliable and integrated. This work will provide reliable earthquake-geology data for establishing geodynamics models and other future research of the national experimental field of earthquake monitoring and prediction in Sichuan and Yunnan Province. 相似文献
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重力方法在地震预报中的作用 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
利用重力方法研究地球的潮汐和非潮汐变化。通过它们的变化规律了解地下介质的质量变化和密度分布以及地球弹性模量与地震的关系。２０多年地震预报实践表明，重力方法在地震预报中有其特殊作用。根据目前在台站或测点按波速异常所圈定的孕震区内发生的地震统计检验：台站监测能力为４４％，重力重复测量的监测能力可达５６％。 相似文献
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Liu Yaowei 《中国地震研究》2007,21(1):16-32
This paper presents a review of the development of scientific research and practice of earthquake underground fluid in China during the last 40 years, summaries early constructive research and primary achievements in this field. The science of earthquake underground fluid is closely correlated with earthquake monitoring and prediction, such as innovations in observation techniques and theoretical methods, and analysis of diversified parameters and research into predictive methods. The historical evolution of observation networks for underground fluid indicates that the demand for strong earthquake monitoring and prediction has become the driving force of the construction and development of the observation network. The development of observation techniques represents the trend based on multiform measurement, syntheses, and digitization. The study results of underground fluid theory and precursory mechanisms suggest that the precursory model, numerical simulation and in-door or field experimental research are the main technological approaches promoting innovation. Research results of earthquake forecast methods use physics based forecast techniques and the ideas of combination of usability and scientific advance. It has been proved by forecast practice that studying underground fluid is a very important subject in earthquake prediction on the Chinese mainland. Finally, the primary work and technical criterion on underground fluid are introduced, and some major scientific issues and development trends in different historical stages are summarized. 相似文献
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The geography information system of the 1303 Hongton M=8 earthquake has been established. Using the spatial analysis function of GIS, the spatial distribution characteristics of
damage and isoseismal of the earthquake are studies. By comparing with the standard earthquake intensity attenuation relationship,
the abnormal damage distribution of the earthquake is found, so the relationship of the abnormal distribution with tectonics,
site condition and basin are analyzed. In this paper, the influence on the ground motion generated by earthquake source and
the underground structures near source also are studied. The influence on seismic zonation, anti-earthquake design, earthquake
prediction and earthquake emergency responding produced by the abnormal density distribution are discussed.
Foundation item: National important fundamental research “The Basic Research of Important Project in Damage Environment” and The important
project “The Seismic Hazard Assessment Research and Anti-earthquake Structure Research” from China Earthquake Administration
during the 10th Five-year Plan.
Contribution No. 04FE1008, Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration. 相似文献