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1.
As part of its development of post-accident management tools, the French Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety is setting up a model to simulate radionuclide dispersion in the Toulon marine area (one of France’s main military ports). The model is based on the MARS 3D code developed by IFREMER. It reproduces hydro-sedimentation phenomena in the Bay of Toulon with a horizontal spatial resolution of 100 m and 30 vertical sigma levels and also factors in radioactive decay and dissolved/particulate distribution of the radionuclides studied. With no tide, the major currents in this area are generated by the wind. The model effectively reproduces the resulting hydrodynamic phenomena, which were measured throughout the summer of 2009 in the channel that links the Little Bay to the Large Bay of Toulon. When the Mistral (wind from the West/Northwest) blows, a surface current quickly appears, which pushes water southwards from the Little Bay, and which is offset by a bottom current (upwellings). When the wind blows from the East, the currents move in the opposite direction, and southeasterly waves, dependent on wind strength and fetch, occur in the Large Bay. Here, we give an example of the simulated dispersion of radionuclides released directly into the surface waters near the Arsenal, demonstrating the constraint relative to dispersion generated by the half-closed configuration of the Little Bay. Sediment in the Little Bay also forms an area where the most highly reactive radionuclides would accumulate, and where the lack of waves has the effect of considerably limiting the phenomena of resuspension.  相似文献   

2.
There were two phytoplankton blooms captured by remote sensing in Lake Michigan in 1998, one from March to May, and one during June. In this paper, those phytoplankton blooms were simulated by a coupled physical–biological model, driven by observed meteorological forcing in 1998. The model reasonably reproduced the lake currents. The biological model results, with and without riverine nutrient loading, were compared with the remote sensing data. A 3-month-long donut-like phytoplankton bloom that appeared in southern Lake Michigan was reasonably well simulated only when riverine input was included, indicating the importance of riverine nutrient input for supporting the growth of phytoplankton in Lake Michigan. The model with riverine input also captured a second event-driven phytoplankton bloom during June with weaker magnitude that occurred in mid-south Lake Michigan, which lasted for about 20 days. The major reason for the weaker bloom in June was that vertical mixing in the hydrodynamic model was too weak (leading to a mixed-layer depth of 20 m) to bring the bottom nutrient-rich water up to the epilimnion. High chlorophyll concentration that persisted in Green Bay for almost a year was simulated with less intensity.  相似文献   

3.
A shallow water hydrostatic 2D hydrodynamic numerical model, based on the boundary conforming coordinate system, was used to simulate aspects of both general and small scale oceanic features occurring in the composite system constituted by the Adriatic Sea and the Lagoon of Venice (Italy), under the influence of tide and realistic atmospheric forcing. Due to a specific technique for the treatment of movable lateral boundaries, the model is able to simulate efficiently dry up and flooding processes within the lagoon. Firstly, a model calibration was performed by comparing the results of the model, forced using tides and ECMWF atmospheric pressure and wind fields, with observations collected for a set of 33 mareographic stations uniformly distributed in the Adriatic Sea and in the Lagoon of Venice. A second numerical experiment was then carried out by considering only the tidal forcing. Through a comparison between the results obtained in the two experiments it was possible to assess the reliability of the estimated parameter through the composite forcing. Model results were then verified by comparing simulated amplitude and phase of each tidal constituent as well as tidal velocities simulated at the inlets of the lagoon and in the Northern Adriatic Sea with the corresponding observed values. The model accurately reproduces the observed harmonics: mean amplitude differences rarely exceed 1 cm, while phase errors are commonly confined below 15°. Semidiurnal and diurnal currents were correctly reproduced in the northern basin and a good agreement was obtained with measurements carried out at the lagoon inlets. On this basis, the outcomes of the hydrodynamic model were analyzed in order to investigate: (i) small-scale coastal circulation features observed at the interface between the adjoining basins, which consist often of vortical dipoles connected with the tidal flow of Adriatic water entering and leaving the Lagoon of Venice and with along-shore current fields connected with specific wind patterns; (ii) residual oscillations, which are often connected to meteorological forcing over the basin. In particular, it emerges that small-scale vortical features generated near the lagoon inlet can be efficiently transported toward the open sea, thus contributing to the water exchange between the two marine regions, and a realistic representation of observed residual oscillations in the area would require a very detailed knowledge of atmospheric as well as remote oceanic forcing.  相似文献   

4.
Vertical turbulent diffusivity (Kz), which can be estimated from water temperature, is a key factor in the evolution of water quality in lentic waters. In this study, we analysed the capability of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model (EFDC) to capture water temperature and vertical diffusivity in Lake Arendsee in the Northern German plain. Of particular interest to us is to evaluate the model performance for capturing the diffusion minimum within the metalimnion and analyse the response of the metalimnetic Kz to meteorological forcing, namely changing wind speed and warming. The comparison confirmed that the calibrated model could reproduce both stratification dynamics and vertical diffusion profiles in the lake. The model was also shown to be able to capture the duration and vertical extent of the metalimnetic diffusion minimum. The scenario results illustrate that, compared to air temperature, wind velocity appeared to be the more influential meteorological variable on the vertical exchange within the metalimnion. While increasing wind velocities mostly affected the minimum values of Kz in the metalimnion and thus led to intensified vertical exchange, the reduction of wind velocity mostly affected the depth of minimal Kz, but not its absolute value.  相似文献   

5.
This paper addresses the role of meteorological forcing on mean sea level (MSL) variability at the tide gauge of Cuxhaven over a period from 1871 to 2008. It is found that seasonal sea level differs significantly from annual means in both variability and trends. The causes for the observed differences are investigated by comparing to changes in wind stress, sea level pressure and precipitation. Stepwise regression is used to estimate the contribution of the different forcing factors to sea level variability. The model validation and sensitivity analyses showed that a robust and timely independent estimation of regression coefficients becomes possible if at least 60 to 80 years of data are available. Depending on the season, the models are able to explain between 54 % (spring, April to June) and 90 % (winter, January to March) of the observed variability. Most parts of the observed variability are attributed to changes in zonal wind stress, whereby the contribution of sea level pressure, precipitation and meridional wind stress is rather small but still significant. On decadal timescales, the explanatory power of local meteorological forcing is considerable weaker, suggesting that the remaining variability is attributed to remote forcing over the North Atlantic. Although meteorological forcing contributes to linear trends in some sub-periods of seasonal time series, the annual long-term trend is less affected. However, the uncertainties of trend estimation can be considerably reduced, when removing the meteorological influences. A standard error smaller than 0.5 mm/year requires 55 years of data when using observed MSL at Cuxhaven tide gauge. In contrast, a similar standard error in the meteorologically corrected residuals is reached after 32 years.  相似文献   

6.
The Bras d’Or Lakes (BdOL) are a large, complex and virtually land-locked estuary in central Cape Breton Island of Nova Scotia and one of Canada’s charismatic ecosystems, sustaining ecological and cultural communities unique in many aspects. The BdOL comprise two major basins, many deep and shallow bays, several narrow channels and straits and a large, geologically complex watershed. Predictive knowledge of the water movement within the estuary is a key requirement for effective management and sustainable development of the BdOL ecosystem. A three-dimensional (3D) primitive-equation ocean circulation model is used to examine the estuary’s response to tides, winds and buoyancy forcing associated with freshwater runoff in a series of numerical experiments validated with empirical data. The model results generate intense, jet-like tidal flows of about 1 m s?1 in the channels between the basins and connecting them to the ocean and relatively weak tidal currents in other regions, which agrees well with previous observations and numerical results. Wind forcing and buoyancy forcing associated with river runoff play important roles in generating the significant sub-tidal circulations in the estuary, including narrow channels, deep basins and shallow bays. The circulation model is also used to reconstruct the 3D circulation and temperature-salinity distributions in the summer months of 1974, when current and hydrographic measurements were made at several locations. The sub-tidal circulation in the estuary produced by the model is characterised by wind and barometric set-up and set-down in different sections of the system, and a classic two-layer estuarine circulation in which brackish, near-surface waters flow seaward from the estuary into the Atlantic Ocean, and deep salty waters flow landward through the major channel. The model results reproduce reasonably well the overall features of observed circulation and temperature-salinity fields made in the BdOL in 1974 but generally underestimate the observed currents and density stratification. The model discrepancies reflect the use of spatially mean wind forcing and spatially and monthly mean surface heat flux and the inability of the coarse model horizontal resolution (～500 m) to resolve narrow channels and straits.  相似文献   

7.
Using in situ, continuous, high frequency (8–16 Hz) measurements of velocity, suspended sediment concentration (SSC), and salinity, we investigate the factors affecting near-bed sediment flux during and after a meteorological event (cold front) on an intertidal flat in central San Francisco Bay. Hydrodynamic forcing occurs over many frequency bands including wind wave, ocean swell, seiching (500–1000 s), tidal, and infra-tidal frequencies, and varies greatly over the time scale of hours and days. Sediment fluxes occur primarily due to variations in flow and SSC at three different scales: residual (tidally averaged), tidal, and seiching. During the meteorological event, sediment fluxes are dominated by increases in tidally averaged SSC and flow. Runoff and wind-induced circulation contribute to an order of magnitude increase in tidally averaged offshore flow, while waves and seiching motions from wind forcing cause an order of magnitude increase in tidally averaged SSC. Sediment fluxes during calm periods are dominated by asymmetries in SSC over a tidal cycle. Freshwater forcing produces sharp salinity fronts which trap sediment and sweep by the sensors over short (∼30 min) time scales, and occur primarily during the flood. The resulting flood dominance in SSC is magnified or reversed by variations in wind forcing between the flood and ebb. Long-term records show that more than half of wind events (sustained speeds of greater than 5 m/s) occur for 3 h or less, suggesting that asymmetric wind forcing over a tidal cycle commonly occurs. Seiching associated with wind and its variation produces onshore sediment transport. Overall, the changing hydrodynamic and meteorological forcing influence sediment flux at both short (minutes) and long (days) time scales.  相似文献   

8.
Residual, or tidally averaged, circulation in fjords is generally assumed to be density driven and two layered. This circulation consists of a thin surface layer of outflow and a thick bottom layer of sluggish inflow. However, development of different vertical structures in residual circulation in fjords can arise from wind, remote, and tidal forcing that may modify the two-layer circulation. Particularly, theoretical results of tidal residual flows in homogeneous semienclosed basins indicate that their vertical structure is determined by the dynamical depth of the system. This dynamical depth can be considered as the ratio between the water column depth and the depth of frictional influence in an oscillatory flow (inverse of Stokes number). When the frictional depth occupies the entire water column, the tidal residual flow is one layered as in shallow basins. But when the frictional depth is only a small portion of the water column (>6 times smaller), the tidal residual is three layered. In relatively deep fjords (say deeper than 100 m), where frictional depths typically occupy a small portion of the water column, the tidal residual flow is expected to be three layered. Ample observational evidence presented here shows a three-layered exchange flow structure in fjords. On the basis of observational and theoretical evidence, it is proposed that the water exchange structure in deep fjords (more than six frictional layers deep, or inverse Stokes number >6) is tidally driven and is three layered. The tidally driven three-layer structure of residual flows could be regarded in some cases as the fundamental structure. However, this structure will only be observed sporadically as it will be masked by wind forcing, remote forcing from the ocean, and freshwater pulses.  相似文献   

9.
太湖梅梁湾水动力及相关过程的研究   总被引：56，自引：13，他引：43  
太湖是位于长江下游的一个大型水湖泊,水动力过程和要素对浅水湖泊的环境演化有着复杂和深远的影响,本文基于１９９８年开展的有关太湖梅梁湾的水动力过程的野外调查结果,总结了梅梁湾在夏季盛行风向条件下湖流特征,发现了梅梁湾在夏季偏南风条件下,表层湖流以顺时针环流为主要特征,但在湾内靠近梁溪河口地区,流场受地形影响而有所不同,反映在叶绿素浓度和总磷、总氮浓度分布上,因受湖流影响较大而富集在梁溪河口周转,即偏  相似文献   

10.
The validation and subsequent application of the current three-dimensional numerical hydrodynamic model of Chesapeake Bay is presented. The numerical model solves conservation equations for water mass, momentum, salinity, and heat on a boundary-fitted grid in the horizontal plane and a Cartesian z-grid in the vertical. A generalized ADI finite difference scheme is employed in conjunction with mode splitting technique, solving external and the internal modes. The 10-year boundary conditions including tide, slinity, temperature, wind, heat exchange coefficient, river and non-point source flows were constructed. Model validation was accomplished by demonstrating the model's ability to reproduce observed data over time scales ranging from tidal to seasonal periods. The major parameters compared include tidal elevation, intra-tidal and residual velocities, salinity, temperature, stratification, and flux calculated through the Bay mouth.After validation, the model was applied to simulate bay hydrodynamics for the 10 years of 1985–94. These results were used to drive the three-dimensional water quality model of Chesapeake Bay, which is discussed in a companion paper.  相似文献   

11.
In this paper, we use the unstructured grid model SCHISM to simulate the thermohydrodynamics in a chain of baroclinic, interconnected basins. The model shows a good skill in simulating the horizontal circulation and vertical profiles of temperature, salinity, and currents. The magnitude and phases of the seasonal changes of circulation are consistent with earlier observations. Among the mesoscale and subbasin-scale circulation features that are realistically simulated are the anticyclonic coastal eddies, the Sebastopol and Batumi eddies, the Marmara Sea outflow around the southern coast of the Limnos Island, and the pathway of the cold water originating from the shelf. The superiority of the simulations compared to earlier numerical studies is demonstrated with the example of model capabilities to resolve the strait dynamics, gravity currents originating from the straits, high-salinity bottom layer on the shallow shelf, as well as the multiple intrusions from the Bosporus Strait down to 700 m depth. The warm temperature intrusions from the strait produce the warm water mass in the intermediate layers of the Black Sea. One novel result is that the seasonal intensification of circulation affects the interbasin exchange, thus allowing us to formulate the concept of circulation-controlled interbasin exchange. To the best of our knowledge, the present numerical simulations, for the first time, suggest that the sea level in the interior part of the Black Sea can be lower than the sea level in the Marmara Sea and even in some parts of the Aegean Sea. The comparison with observations shows that the timings and magnitude of exchange flows are also realistically simulated, along with the blocking events. The short-term variability of the strait transports is largely controlled by the anomalies of wind. The simulations demonstrate the crucial role of the narrow and shallow strait of Bosporus in separating the two pairs of basins: Aegean-Marmara Seas from one side and Azov-Black Seas from the other side. The straits of Kerch and Dardanelles provide sufficient interbasin connectivity that prevents large phase lags of the sea levels in the neighboring basins. The two-layer flows in the three straits considered here show different dependencies upon the net transport, and the spatial variability of this dependence is also quite pronounced. We show that the blocking of the surface flow can occur at different net transports, thus casting doubt on a previous approach of using simple relationships to prescribe (steady) outflow and inflow. Specific attention is paid to the role of synoptic atmospheric forcing for the basin-wide circulation and redistribution of mass in the Black Sea. An important controlling process is the propagation of coastal waves. One major conclusion from this research is that modeling the individual basins separately could result in large inaccuracies because of the critical importance of the cascading character of these interconnected basins.  相似文献   

12.
Bo Yang  Jinyu Sheng 《Ocean Dynamics》2008,58(5-6):375-396
This study examines main physical processes affecting the three-dimensional (3D) circulation and hydrographic distributions over the inner Scotian Shelf (ISS) in June and July 2006 using a nested-grid coastal ocean circulation modeling system known as the NCOPS-LB. The nested-grid system has five relocatable downscaling submodels, with the outermost submodel of a coarse horizontal resolution of (1/12)° for simulating storm surges and barotropic shelf waves over the Eastern Canadian shelf and the innermost submodel of a fine resolution of ～180 m for simulating the 3D coastal circulation and hydrography over Lunenburg Bay of Nova Scotia in the default setup. The NCOPS-LB is driven by meteorological and astronomical forcing and used to study the storm-induced circulation over the ISS during tropical storm Alberto. Model results demonstrate that the coastal circulation and hydrographic distributions over the ISS are affected significantly by tides, local wind forcing, and remotely generated coastal waves during the study period.  相似文献   

13.
The Basque coastal area, in the southeastern Bay of Biscay, can be characterised as being more influenced by land climate and inputs, than other typically ‘open sea’ areas. The influence of coastal processes, together with the presence of irregular and steep topography, complicate greatly the water circulation patterns. Water movement along the Basque coastal area is not well understood; observations are scarce and long-term current records are lacking. The knowledge available is confined to the surface currents: the surface water circulation is controlled mainly by wind forcing, with tidal and density currents being weak. However, there is a lack of knowledge available on currents within the lower levels of the water column; likewise, on the main time-scales involved in the water circulation. This study quantifies the contribution of the tidal and wind-induced currents, to the overall water circulation; it identifies the main time-scales involved within the tidal and wind-induced flows, investigating difference in such currents, throughout the water column, within Pasaia Bay (Basque coast). Within this context, extensive oceanographic and meteorological data have been obtained, in order to describe the circulation. The present investigation reveals that the circulation, within the surface and the sub-surface waters, is controlled mainly by wind forcing fluctuations, over a wide range of meteorological frequencies: third-diurnal, semidiurnal and diurnal land–sea breezes; synoptic variability; frequencies, near fortnightly periods; and seasonal. At the lower levels of the water column, the main contribution to the water circulation arises from residual currents, followed by wind-induced currents on synoptic time-scales. In contrast, tidal currents contribute minimally to the overall circulation throughout the water column.  相似文献   

14.
To understand when oxygen-depleted waters occur, how they develop and when they dissipate in inner Tokyo Bay, realistic simulations were attempted with fine spatial and temporal resolution by applying realistic time dependent external forcing. A 3D hydrodynamic model was driven by time-dependent external forcing factors/parameters such as solar radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity, and fluvial discharge, under the open boundary conditions of 1995. A simulated time series of salinity and temperature agreed fairly well with observed data, except in summer. The model failed to reproduce the development of the surface mixed layer in summer. Several sensitivity analyses on the external forcing parameters such as wind velocity and vertical diffusivity were conducted to reproduce the mixed layer. However, changing these parameter values did not improve the model results.  相似文献   

15.
Variability in water-exchange time between Tokyo Bay and the Pacific Ocean during winter is investigated based on the results of intensive field observation from November 2000 to March 2001. Water-exchange time between Tokyo Bay and the Pacific Ocean during winter mainly depends on the strength of northerly monsoon, being about 16 days under the weak monsoon and about 12 days under the strong monsoon. Moreover, it becomes longer by about 1 day in spring tide and shorter in neap tide due to the coupling effect of estuarine circulation and vertical mixing. Water-exchange time also varies depending on the open-ocean condition. When the warm water mass approaches from the Pacific Ocean to the mouth of Tokyo Bay through the eastern channel of Sagami Bay, which connects Tokyo Bay and the Pacific Ocean, water-exchange time becomes longer by about 2 days because the warm water mass is blocked in the surface layer at the bay mouth. On the other hand, when the warm water mass approaches to the mouth of Tokyo Bay through the western channel of Sagami Bay, water-exchange time becomes shorter by about 1 day because the warm water mass intrudes into the middle or lower layers of Tokyo Bay. Such different behavior of warm water mass at the mouth of Tokyo Bay is due to the difference in density of approaching warm water masses, that is, the density of the warm water mass through the eastern channel is smaller than that of the warm water mass through the western channel of Sagami Bay.Responsible Editors: Yens Kappenberg  相似文献   

16.
The MARS-3D model in conjunction with the particle tracking module Ichthyop is used to study circulation and tracer dynamics under a variety of forcing conditions in the eastern English Channel, and in the Boulogne-sur-Mer harbour (referred to hereafter as BLH). Results of hydrodynamic modelling are validated against the tidal gauge data, VHF radar surface velocities and ADCP measurements. Lagrangian tracking experiments are performed with passive particles to study tracer dispersal along the northern French coast, with special emphasis on the BLH. Simulations revealed an anticyclonic eddy generated in the harbour at rising tide. Tracers, released during flood tide at the Liane river mouth, move northward with powerful clockwise rotating current. After the high water, the current direction changes to westward, and tracers leave the harbour through the open boundary. During ebb tide, currents convergence along the western open boundary but no eddy is formed, surface currents inside the harbour are much weaker and the tracer excursion length is small. After the current reversal at low water, particles are advected shoreward resulting in a significant increase of the residence time of tracers released during ebb tide. The effect of wind on particle dispersion was found to be particularly strong. Under strong SW wind, the residence time of particles released during flood tide increases from 1.5 to 6 days. For release during ebb tide, SW wind weakens the southward tidally induced drift and thus the residence time decreases. Similar effects are observed when the freshwater inflow to the harbour is increased from 2 to 10 m3/s during the ebb tide flow. For flood tide conditions, the effect of freshwater inflow is less significant. We also demonstrate an example of innovative coastal management targeted at the reduction of the residence time of the pathogenic material accidentally released in the harbour.  相似文献   

17.
Jouanneau  Nicolas  Sentchev  Alexei  Dumas  Franck 《Ocean Dynamics》2013,63(11):1321-1340

The MARS-3D model in conjunction with the particle tracking module Ichthyop is used to study circulation and tracer dynamics under a variety of forcing conditions in the eastern English Channel, and in the Boulogne-sur-Mer harbour (referred to hereafter as BLH). Results of hydrodynamic modelling are validated against the tidal gauge data, VHF radar surface velocities and ADCP measurements. Lagrangian tracking experiments are performed with passive particles to study tracer dispersal along the northern French coast, with special emphasis on the BLH. Simulations revealed an anticyclonic eddy generated in the harbour at rising tide. Tracers, released during flood tide at the Liane river mouth, move northward with powerful clockwise rotating current. After the high water, the current direction changes to westward, and tracers leave the harbour through the open boundary. During ebb tide, currents convergence along the western open boundary but no eddy is formed, surface currents inside the harbour are much weaker and the tracer excursion length is small. After the current reversal at low water, particles are advected shoreward resulting in a significant increase of the residence time of tracers released during ebb tide. The effect of wind on particle dispersion was found to be particularly strong. Under strong SW wind, the residence time of particles released during flood tide increases from 1.5 to 6 days. For release during ebb tide, SW wind weakens the southward tidally induced drift and thus the residence time decreases. Similar effects are observed when the freshwater inflow to the harbour is increased from 2 to 10 m3/s during the ebb tide flow. For flood tide conditions, the effect of freshwater inflow is less significant. We also demonstrate an example of innovative coastal management targeted at the reduction of the residence time of the pathogenic material accidentally released in the harbour.

  相似文献   

18.
Because wind is one of the main forcings in storm surge, we present an idealised process-based model to study the influence of topographic variations on the frequency response of large-scale coastal basins subject to time-periodic wind forcing. Coastal basins are represented by a semi-enclosed rectangular inner region forced by wind. It is connected to an outer region (represented as an infinitely long channel) without wind forcing, which allows waves to freely propagate outward. The model solves the three-dimensional linearised shallow water equations on the f plane, forced by a spatially uniform wind field that has an arbitrary angle with respect to the along-basin direction. Turbulence is represented using a spatially uniform vertical eddy viscosity, combined with a partial slip condition at the bed. The surface elevation amplitudes, and hence the vertical profiles of the velocity, are obtained using the finite element method (FEM), extended to account for the connection to the outer region. The results are then evaluated in terms of the elevation amplitude averaged over the basin’s landward end, as a function of the wind forcing frequency. In general, the results point out that adding topographic elements in the inner region (such as a topographic step, a linearly sloping bed or a parabolic cross-basin profile), causes the resonance peaks to shift in the frequency domain, through their effect on local wave speed. The Coriolis effect causes the resonance peaks associated with cross-basin modes (which without rotation only appear in the response to cross-basin wind) to emerge also in the response to along-basin wind and vice versa.  相似文献   

19.
A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for dispersion of ballast water organisms in shelf seas is applied to the Scotian Shelf region of eastern Canada. The ballast water exchange process is simulated as the dispersion of tracer released into the surface layer of an ocean circulation model of the region. Circulation model variability is driven by wind stress from a cyclical year of forcing representing climatological storminess. Dispersion metrics related to invasion risk are developed and incorporated into a risk equation that computes the relative overall risk of invasion for ballast water exchange segments along vessel tracks crossing the shelf. Three hundred and sixty dispersion simulations are done for each segment of each of six tracks. Because the flow fields represent climatological variability in shelf circulation, the application of the risk assessment model captures the expected variability in invasion risk. Model results indicate that more than an order of magnitude variation in risk can exist along a given vessel track, and that tracks with offshelf segments provide a lower risk option compared to onshelf tracks. The model provides quantitative guidance to regulators regarding what is an acceptable trip diversion and can aid in numerous other management decisions.  相似文献   

20.
Forecasts of the dynamics of meteorological characteristics in the basins of the Olenek and Indigirka rivers (the Republic of Sakha) in the XXI century have been obtained for four IPCC global climate scenarios of SRES family, corresponding to specified scenarios of economic, technological, political, and demographic development of human civilization. The forecasts have been used to calculate scenarios of possible changes in water balance components for the basins under consideration up to the year of 2063. The calculation procedure involves a physically-based model of heat and mass exchange between the land surface and the atmosphere SWAP and climate scenario generator MAGICC/SCENGEN.  相似文献   

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