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1.
Hydrologic models often require correct estimates of surface macro‐depressional storage to accurately simulate rainfall–runoff processes. Traditionally, depression storage is determined through model calibration or lumped with soil storage components or on an ad hoc basis. This paper investigates a holistic approach for estimating surface depressional storage capacity (DSC) in watersheds using digital elevation models (DEMs). The methodology includes implementing a lumped DSC model to extract geometric properties of storage elements from DEMs of varying grid resolutions and employing a consistency zone criterion to quantify the representative DSC of an isolated watershed. DSC obtained using the consistency zone approach is compared to DSC estimated by “brute force” (BF) optimization method. The BF procedure estimates optimal DSC by calibrating DRAINMOD, a quasi‐process based hydrologic model, with observed streamflow under different climatic conditions. Both methods are applied to determine the DSC for relatively low‐gradient coastal plain watersheds on forested landscape with slopes less than 3%. Results show robustness of the consistency zone approach for estimating depression storage. To test the adequacy of the calculated DSC values obtained, both methods are applied in DRAINMOD to predict the daily watershed flow rates. Comparison between observed and simulated streamflow reveals a marginal difference in performance between BF optimization and consistency zone estimated DSCs during wet periods, but the latter performed relatively better in dry periods. DSC is found to be dependent on seasonal antecedent moisture conditions on surface topography. The new methodology is beneficial in situations where data on depressional storage is unavailable for calibrating models requiring this input parameter. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

2.
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a physically‐based hydrologic model developed for agricultural watersheds, which has been infrequently validated for forested watersheds, particularly those with deep overwinter snow accumulation and abundant lakes and wetlands. The goal of this study was to determine the applicability of SWAT for modelling streamflow in two watersheds of the Ontonagon River basin of northern Michigan which differ in proportion of wetland and lake area. The forest‐dominated East Branch watershed contains 17% wetland and lake area, whereas the wetland/lake‐dominated Middle Branch watershed contains 26% wetland and lake area. The specific objectives were to: (1) calibrate and validate SWAT models for the East Branch and Middle Branch watersheds to simulate monthly stream flow, and (2) compare the effects of wetland and lake abundance on the magnitude and timing of streamflow. Model calibration and validation was satisfactory, as determined by deviation of discharge D and Nash and Sutcliffe coefficient values E that compared simulated monthly mean discharge versus measured monthly mean discharge. Streamflow simulation discrepancies occurred during summer and fall months and dry years. Several snow melting parameters were found to be critical for the SWAT simulation: TIMP (snow temperature lag factor) and SMFMX and SMFMN (melting factors). Snow melting parameters were not transferable between adjacent watersheds. Differences in seasonal pattern of long‐term monthly streamflow were found, with the forest‐dominated watershed having a higher peak flow during April but a lower flow during the remainder of the year in comparison to the wetland and lake‐dominated watershed. The results suggested that a greater proportion of wetland and lake area increases the capacity of a watershed to impound surface runoff and to delay storm and snow melting events. Representation of wetlands and lakes in a watershed model is required to simulate monthly stream flow in a wetland/lake‐dominated watershed. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

3.
The hydroclimatology of prairie‐dominated portions of the Lake Winnipeg watershed was investigated to determine the possible presence of trends and shifts in variables that may influence the streamflow regimes and water quality of Lake Winnipeg. The total annual streamflow, precipitation, runoff ratio and daily maximum streamflow in the two major tributaries of the Assiniboine River and Red River were analysed for a range of nonstationary behaviours. Each of these rivers has been gauged for more than 90 years. The methods used included a nonparametric Mann–Kendall test modified to account for diverse memory properties (i.e. short term versus long term) and a Bayesian change point detection model to identify possible segments of time series with inconsistent nonstationary behaviour. Although there is no evidence of statistically significant trends in precipitation and streamflow in the Assiniboine River watershed, a shift‐type nonstationarity in annual runoff and runoff ratio was observed in this area, which is manifested in the form of a sequence of wet and dry spells during the last century. Precipitation and runoff metrics in the American portion of the study area (i.e. Red River watershed) were characterised with both gradual and abrupt changes with an extremely increasing rate of streamflow beyond that of intensified precipitation. The nonproportional watershed runoff response is attributed to the dynamic nature of contributing areas that, together with the semiarid climate, leads to sudden changes of streamflow due to major or even some times minor changes in climate inputs. It is evident that streamflow in the depression‐dominated landscapes of the semiarid glaciated plains of North America is particularly sensitive and vulnerable to minor climate variability and change. This study provides valuable insights into the highly complex precipitation–runoff relationship in depression‐dominated landscapes and could have important implications for water management in this part of North America and comparable regions. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

4.
Simulation of watershed scale hydrologic and water quality processes is important for watershed assessments. Proper characterization of the accuracy of these simulations, particularly in cases with limited observed data, is critical. The Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is frequently used for watershed scale simulation. The accuracy of the model was assessed by extrapolating calibration results from a well studied Coastal Plain watershed in Southwest Georgia, USA, to watersheds within the same geographic region without further calibration. SWAT was calibrated and validated on a 16.7‐km2 subwatershed within the Little River Experimental Watershed by varying six model parameters. The optimized parameter set was then applied to a watershed of similar land use and soils, a smaller watershed with different land use and soils and three larger watersheds within the same drainage system without further calibration. Simulation results with percent bias (PB) ±15% ≤ PB < ±25% and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) 0.50 < NSE ≤ 0.65 were considered to be satisfactory, whereas those with PB < ±10% and 0.75 < NSE ≤ 1.00 were considered very good. With these criteria, simulation results for the five non‐calibration watersheds were satisfactory to very good. Differences across watersheds were attributed to differences in soils, land use, and surficial aquifer characteristics. These results indicate that SWAT can be a useful tool for predicting streamflow for ungauged watersheds with similar physical characteristics to the calibration watershed studied here and provide an indication of the accuracy of hydrologic simulations for ungauged watersheds. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

5.
Streamflow simulation is often challenging in mountainous watersheds because of incomplete hydrological models, irregular topography, immeasurable snowpack or glacier, and low data resolution. In this study, a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model (SWAT-Soil Water Assessment Tool) coupled with a glacier melting algorithm was applied to investigate the sensitivity of streamflow to climatic and glacial changes in the upstream Heihe River Basin. The glacier mass balance was calculated at daily time-step using a distributed temperature-index melting and accumulation algorithm embedded in the SWAT model. Specifically, the model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow data measured at Yingluoxia Hydrological Station and decadal ice volume changes derived from survey maps and remote sensing images between 1960 and 2010. This study highlights the effects of glacier melting on streamflow and their future changes in the mountainous watersheds. We simulate the contribution of glacier melting to streamflow change under different scenarios of climate changes in terms of temperature and precipitation dynamics. The rising temperature positively contributed to streamflow due to the increase of snowmelt and glacier melting. The rising precipitation directly contributes to streamflow and it contributed more to streamflow than the rising temperature. The results show that glacial meltwater has contributed about 3.25 billion m3 to streamflow during 1960–2010. However, the depth of runoff within the watershed increased by about 2.3 mm due to the release of water from glacial storage to supply the intensified evapotranspiration and infiltration. The simulation results indicate that the glacier made about 8.9% contribution to streamflow in 2010. The research approach used in this study is feasible to estimate the glacial contribution to streamflow in other similar mountainous watersheds elsewhere.  相似文献   

6.
Bracketing the uncertainty of streamflow and agricultural runoff under climate change is critical for proper future water resource management in agricultural watersheds. This study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in conjunction with a Latin hypercube climate change sampling algorithm to construct a 95% confidence interval (95CI) around streamflow, sediment load, and nitrate load predictions under changes in climate for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River watersheds in California's Central Valley. The Latin hypercube algorithm sampled 2000 combinations of precipitation and temperature changes based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projections from multiple General Circulation Models. Average monthly percent changes of the upper and lower 95CI limits compared to the present‐day simulation and a statistic termed the “r‐factor” (average width of the 95CI band divided by the standard deviation of the 95CI bandwidth) were used to assess watershed sensitivities. 95CI results indicate that streamflow and sediment runoff in the Sacramento River watershed are more likely to decrease under climate change compared to present‐day conditions, whereas the increase and decrease for nitrate runoff were found to be equal. For the San Joaquin River watershed, streamflow slightly decreased under climate change, whereas sediment and nitrate runoff increased compared to present‐day climate. Comparisons of watershed sensitivities indicate that the San Joaquin River watershed is more sensitive to climate changes than the Sacramento River watershed, which is largely caused by the high density of agricultural land. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

7.
Warming will affect snowline elevation, potentially altering the timing and magnitude of streamflow from mountain landscapes. Presently, the assessment of potential elevation‐dependent responses is difficult because many gauged watersheds integrate drainage areas that are both snow and rain dominated. To predict the impact of snowline rise on streamflow, we mapped the current snowline (1980 m) for the Salmon River watershed (Idaho, USA) and projected its elevation after 3 °C warming (2440 m). This increase results in a 40% reduction in snow‐covered area during winter months. We expand this analysis by collecting streamflow records from a new, elevation‐stratified gauging network of watersheds contained within high (2250–3800 m), mid (1500–2250 m) and low (300–1500 m) elevations that isolate snow, mixed and rain‐dominated precipitation regimes. Results indicate that lags between percentiles of precipitation and streamflow are much shorter in low elevations than in mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds. Low elevation annual percentiles (Q25 and Q75) of streamflow occur 30–50 days earlier than in higher elevation watersheds. Extreme events in low elevations are dominated by low‐ and no‐flow events whereas mid‐ and high‐elevation extreme events are primarily large magnitude floods. Only mid‐ and high‐elevation watersheds are strongly cross correlated with catchment‐wide flow of the Salmon River, suggesting that changes in contributions from low‐elevation catchments may be poorly represented using mainstem gauges. As snowline rises, mid‐elevation watersheds will likely exhibit behaviours currently observed only at lower elevations. Streamflow monitoring networks designed for operational decision making or change detection may require modification to capture elevation‐dependent responses of streamflow to warming. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

8.
Most semi‐distributed watershed water quality models divide the watershed into hydrologic response units (HRU) with no flow among them. This is problematic when watersheds are delineated to include variable source areas (VSAs) because it is the lateral flows from upslope areas to downslope areas that generate VSAs. Although hydrologic modellers have often successfully calibrated these types of models, there can still be considerable uncertainty in model results. In this paper, a topographic‐index‐based method is described and tested to distribute effective soil water holding capacity among HRUs, which can be subsequently adjusted using the watershed baseflow coefficient. The method is tested using a version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model that simulates VSA runoff and is applied to two watersheds: a New York State (NYS) watershed, and one in the head waters of the Blue Nile Basin (BNB) in Ethiopia. Daily streamflow predicted using effective soil water storage capacities based only on the topographic index were reassuringly accurate in both the NYS watershed (daily Nash Sutcliffe (E) = 0·73) and in the BNB (E = 0·70). Using the baseflow coefficient to adjust the effective soil water storage capacity only slightly improved streamflow predictions in NYS (E = 0·75) but substantially improved the BNB predictions (E = 0·80). By comparison, the standard SWAT model, which uses the traditional look‐up tables to determine a runoff curve number, performed considerably less accurately in un‐calibrated form (E = 0·51 for NYS and E = 0·45 for BNB), but improved substantially when explicitly calibrated to streamflow measurements (E = 0·76 for NYS and E = 0·67 for the BNB). The calibration method presented here provides a parsimonious, systematic approach to using established models in VSA watersheds that reduces the ambiguity inherent in model calibration. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Agricultural pollutant runoff is a major source of water contamination in California's Sacramento River watershed where 8500 km2 of agricultural land influences water quality. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrology, sediment, nitrate and pesticide transport components were assessed for the Sacramento River watershed. To represent flood conveyance in the area, the model was improved by implementing a flood routing algorithm. Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses and multi‐objective calibration were incorporated into the model application for predicting streamflow, sediment, nitrate and pesticides (chlorpyrifos and diazinon) at multiple watershed sites from 1992 to 2008. Most of the observed data were within the 95% uncertainty interval, indicating that the SWAT simulations were capturing the uncertainties that existed, such as model simplification, observed data errors and lack of agricultural management data. The monthly Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients at the watershed outlet ranged from 0.48 to 0.82, indicating that the model was able to successfully predict streamflow and agricultural pollutant transport after calibration. Predicted sediment loads were highly correlated to streamflow, whereas nitrate, chlorpyrifos and diazinon were moderately correlated to streamflow. This indicates that timing of agricultural management operations plays a role in agricultural pollutant runoff. Best management practices, such as pesticide use limits during wet seasons, could improve water quality in the Sacramento River watershed. The calibrated model establishes a modelling framework for further studies of hydrology, water quality and ecosystem protection in the study area. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

10.
Although soil processes affect the timing and amount of streamflow generated from snowmelt, they are often overlooked in estimations of snowmelt‐generated streamflow in the western USA. The use of a soil water balance modelling approach to incorporate the effects of soil processes, in particular soil water storage, on the timing and amount of snowmelt generated streamflow, was investigated. The study was conducted in the Reynolds Mountain East (RME) watershed, a 38 ha, snowmelt‐dominated watershed in southwest Idaho. Snowmelt or rainfall inputs to the soil were determined using a well established snow accumulation and melt model (Isnobal). The soil water balance model was first evaluated at a point scale, using periodic soil water content measurements made over two years at 14 sites. In general, the simulated soil water profiles were in agreement with measurements (P < 0·05) as further indicated by high R2 values (mostly > 0·85), y‐intercept values near 0, slopes near 1 and low average differences between measured and modelled values. In addition, observed soil water dynamics were generally consistent with critical model assumptions. Spatially distributed simulations over the watershed for the same two years indicate that streamflow initiation and cessation are closely linked to the overall watershed soil water storage capacity, which acts as a threshold. When soil water storage was below the threshold, streamflow was insensitive to snowmelt inputs, but once the threshold was crossed, the streamflow response was very rapid. At these times there was a relatively high degree of spatial continuity of satiated soils within the watershed. Incorporation of soil water storage effects may improve estimation of the timing and amount of streamflow generated from mountainous watersheds dominated by snowmelt. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

11.
Watershed scale hydrological and biogeochemical models rely on the correct spatial‐temporal prediction of processes governing water and contaminant movement. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, one of the most commonly used watershed scale models, uses the popular curve number (CN) method to determine the respective amounts of infiltration and surface runoff. Although appropriate for flood forecasting in temperate climates, the CN method has been shown to be less than ideal in many situations (e.g. monsoonal climates and areas dominated by variable source area hydrology). The CN model is based on the assumption that there is a unique relationship between the average moisture content and the CN for all hydrologic response units (HRUs), and that the moisture content distribution is similar for each runoff event, which is not the case in many regions. Presented here is a physically based water balance that was coded in the SWAT model to replace the CN method of runoff generation. To compare this new water balance SWAT (SWAT‐WB) to the original CN‐based SWAT (SWAT‐CN), two watersheds were initialized; one in the headwaters of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia and one in the Catskill Mountains of New York. In the Ethiopian watershed, streamflow predictions were better using SWAT‐WB than SWAT‐CN [Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies (NSE) of 0·79 and 0·67, respectively]. In the temperate Catskills, SWAT‐WB and SWAT‐CN predictions were approximately equivalent (NSE > 0·70). The spatial distribution of runoff‐generating areas differed greatly between the two models, with SWAT‐WB reflecting the topographical controls imposed on the model. Results show that a water balance provides results equal to or better than the CN, but with a more physically based approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

12.
Precipitation is a key control on watershed hydrologic modelling output, with errors in rainfall propagating through subsequent stages of water quantity and quality analysis. Most watershed models incorporate precipitation data from rain gauges; higher‐resolution data sources are available, but they are associated with greater computational requirements and expertise. Here, we investigate whether the Multisensor Precipitation Estimator (MPE or Stage IV Next‐Generation Radar) data improve the accuracy of streamflow simulations using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), compared with rain gauge data. Simulated flows from 2002 to 2010 at five timesteps were compared with observed flows for four nested subwatersheds of the Neuse River basin in North Carolina (21‐, 203‐, 2979‐, and 10 100‐km2 watershed area), using a multi‐objective function, informal likelihood‐weighted calibration approach. Across watersheds and timesteps, total gauge precipitation was greater than radar precipitation, but radar data showed a conditional bias of higher rainfall estimates during large events (>25–50 mm/day). Model parameterization differed between calibrations with the two datasets, despite the fact that all watershed characteristics were the same across simulation scenarios. This underscores the importance of linking calibration parameters to realistic processes. SWAT simulations with both datasets underestimated median and low flows, whereas radar‐based simulations were more accurate than gauge‐based simulations for high flows. At coarser timesteps, differences were less pronounced. Our results suggest that modelling efforts in watersheds with poor rain gauge coverage can be improved with MPE radar data, especially at short timesteps. Published 2013. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

13.
Climate models project warmer temperatures for the north‐west USA, which will result in reduced snowpacks and decreased summer streamflow. This paper examines how groundwater, snowmelt, and regional climate patterns control discharge at multiple time scales, using historical records from two watersheds with contrasting geological properties and drainage efficiencies. In the groundwater‐dominated watershed, aquifer storage and the associated slow summer recession are responsible for sustaining discharge even when the seasonal or annual water balance is negative, while in the runoff‐dominated watershed subsurface storage is exhausted every summer. There is a significant 1 year cross‐correlation between precipitation and discharge in the groundwater‐dominated watershed (r = 0·52), but climatic factors override geology in controlling the inter‐annual variability of streamflow. Warmer winters and earlier snowmelt over the past 60 years have shifted the hydrograph, resulting in summer recessions lasting 17 days longer, August discharges declining 15%, and autumn minimum discharges declining 11%. The slow recession of groundwater‐dominated streams makes them more sensitive than runoff‐dominated streams to changes in snowmelt amount and timing. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Rong Gan  Qiting Zuo 《水文研究》2016,30(9):1367-1375
Base flow is an important component of streamflow. Although the simple digital filter method is widely used for base flow separation, the applicability in alpine rivers mainly dominated by glacier melt has not been described in detail. To assess and improve the performance of base flow estimates using the filter method for catchments dominated by glacier melt, the enhanced Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to obtain the estimates of streamflow and base flow for three catchments with different glacier melt contribution in arid and cold Northwestern China. The digital filter is then applied to the simulated streamflow to separate base flow and assess how well the base flow by the filter method matches these obtained using the SWAT model. In order to obtain the best match between the base flow by the filter method and those using the SWAT model, the linear regression model is used to estimate the relation between the filtered base flow and the glacier melt. It was found that the filtered base flow was matched well with base flow using the SWAT model during the low‐flow period. However, the base flow based on the digital filter method was overestimated during the high‐flow period, especially for the Manas River and Kumarik River. The base flow indexes by the digital filter estimates were 2.9%, 33.3% and 100% larger than those of the model method for the Gongnaisi River, Manas River and Kumarik River, respectively. The differences are larger with bigger glacier melt contribution. The performance of the digital filter is affected by the glacier melt, and it can be improved significantly by the combination of filtered base flow and the glacier melt. The base flow indexes by the improved filter are 1.5%, 4.4% and 10.7% larger than those of the model method for the Gongnaisi River, Manas River and Kumarik River, respectively. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

15.
The Logan River watershed, located in Northern Utah, USA, consists of a relatively pristine, mountainous area that drains to a lower elevation, valley area influenced by both urban development and agriculture. The Logan River Observatory has been collecting aquatic (streamflow and water quality) and climate data throughout the Logan River watershed since 2014. While streamflow measurements are commonly made at the outlets of research watersheds, the Logan River watershed consists of diverse hydrologic, topographic, and geologic settings that require a detailed understanding of streamflow variability over time at many locations. Here, we illustrate: (a) the importance of collecting streamflow time series throughout complex watersheds, and (b) how simple flow balances can provide much needed hydrologic insight into the locations and timing of gains and losses over reaches to guide future investigations.  相似文献   

16.
Abstract

Climate change impacts on the availability of water resources. Projection of hydrological response to temperature change is valuable for water management. Such response may be complex and uncertain at the watershed scale and differences may exist between low and high latitudes. A simulation experiment was achieved by using SWAT modelling in the upstream watershed of Dongjiang River, South China. After calibration, the model was found appropriate for hydrological simulation in the study area and was run from 1995 to 2004 under a series of temperature change scenarios to reveal the response of streamflow and loads of sediment and nutrients. For a temperature increase of 3°C, streamflow, sediment and total phosphorus decreased by 5.2, 7.7 and 2.2%, respectively. Linear temperature change seemed to have a linear hydrological response. Nutrient deficiency was still the primary vegetation stress compared with water availability and temperature stress under rising temperatures. Comparison with previous research showed that two southern subtropical watersheds (one upstream and one downstream) gave different hydrological responses. Sediment and inorganic nitrogen loads decreased in the upstream watershed, but increased in the downstream one, when temperature increased. Under the warming scenarios, streamflow and sediment loads decreased throughout the year, especially during the wet season, which is different from results at high latitudes. Nutrient export decreased in April–June, but increased in the remaining months. Simulation results should be applied with caution in water resources management, as simulated climate change had variable hydrological influence in different regions and seasons.

Citation Xu, H. and Peng, S.L., 2013. Distinct effects of temperature change on discharge and non-point pollution in subtropical southern China by SWAT simulation. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (5), 1032–1046.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor C.-Y. Xu  相似文献   

17.
Investigating the changes in streamflow regimes in response to various influencing factors contributes to our understanding of the mechanisms of hydrological processes in different watersheds and to water resource management strategies. This study examined streamflow regime changes by applying the indicators of hydrologic alteration method and eco-flow metrics to daily runoff data (1965–2016) from the Sandu, Hulu and Dali Rivers on the Chinese Loess Plateau, and then determined their responses to terracing, afforestation and damming. The Budyko water balance equation and the double mass curve method were used to separate the impacts of climate change and human activities on the mean discharge changes. The results showed that the terraced and dammed watersheds exhibited significant decreases in annual runoff. All hydrologic metrics indicated that the highest degree of hydrologic alteration was in the Sandu River watershed (terraced), where the monthly and extreme flows reduced significantly. In contrast, the annual eco-deficit increased significantly, indicating the highest reduction in streamflow among the three watersheds. The regulation of dams and reservoirs in the Dali River watershed has altered the flow regime, and obvious decreases in the maximum flow and slight increases in the minimum flow and baseflow indices were observed. In the Hulu River watershed (afforested), the monthly flow and extreme flows decreased slightly and were categorized as low-degree alteration, indicating that the long-term delayed effects of afforestation on hydrological processes. The magnitude of the eco-flow metrics varied with the alteration of annual precipitation. Climate change contributed 67.47% to the runoff reduction in the Hulu River watershed, while human activities played predominant roles in reducing runoff in the Sandu and Dali River watersheds. The findings revealed distinct patterns and causes of streamflow regime alteration due to different conservation measures, emphasizing the need to optimize the spatial allocation of measures to control soil erosion and utilize water resources on the Loess Plateau.  相似文献   

18.
Changes in climate may significantly affect how sediment moves through watersheds into harbours and channels that are dredged for navigation or flood control. Here, we applied a hydrologic model driven by a large suite of climate change scenarios to simulate both historical and future sediment yield and transport in two large, adjacent watersheds in the Great Lakes region. Using historical dredging expenditure data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, we then developed a pair of statistical models that link sediment discharge from each river to dredging costs at the watershed outlet. Although both watersheds show similar slight decreases in streamflow and sediment yield in the near‐term, by Mid‐Century, they diverge substantially. Dredging costs are projected to change in opposite directions for the two watersheds; we estimate that future dredging costs will decline in the St. Joseph River by 8–16% by Mid‐Century but increase by 1–6% in the Maumee River. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on sediment yield and dredging may vary significantly by watershed even within a region and that agricultural practices will play a large role in determining future streamflow and sediment loads. We also show that there are large variations in responses across climate projections that cause significant uncertainty in sediment and dredging projections.  相似文献   

19.
B. Yu  Z. Zhu 《水文科学杂志》2015,60(7-8):1200-1212
Abstract

The Australian Water Balance model (AWBM) and the SimHyd rainfall–runoff model are conceptual models widely used for simulating daily flows in Australia. To evaluate their ability to model non-stationary daily flows, to quantify the effect of land disturbance, and to assess their performance in catchments outside Australia, these two models were applied to two small watersheds, the Fernow watershed No. 6 in West Virginia, USA, for the period 1959–2009, and the River Rimbaud watershed in the French Alps for the period 1968–2006. Both watersheds have experienced well documented disturbances as a result of clearing and fire, respectively. The modelling protocol followed was adopted for a workshop on hydrology under change, held during the 2013 IAHS Assembly in Göteborg, Sweden, which was based on split-sample tests. On balance, the AWBM worked marginally better than SimHyd for these two catchments, and neither model worked satisfactorily for the Fernow watershed where forest clearing, application of herbicide and changes in species composition had occurred. There is little difference in terms of model performance between periods when land disturbances occurred and other periods with relatively stable conditions. Conceptual models are better equipped to simulate climate-driven variations in the observed streamflow (e.g. the River Rimbaud), and inadequate in reproducing streamflow variability as a result of complex forest management practices.  相似文献   

20.
Integrated river basin models should provide a spatially distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes to allow for spatially implementing specific management and conservation measures. To accomplish this, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was modified by integrating a landscape routing model to simulate water flow across discretized routing units. This paper presents a grid‐based version of the SWAT landscape model that has been developed to enhance the spatial representation of hydrology and transport processes. The modified model uses a new flow separation index that considers topographic features and soil properties to capture channel and landscape flow processes related to specific landscape positions. The resulting model is spatially fully distributed and includes surface, lateral and groundwater fluxes in each grid cell of the watershed. Furthermore, it more closely represents the spatially heterogeneous distributed flow and transport processes in a watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for the Little River Watershed (LRW) near Tifton, Georgia (USA). Water balance simulations as well as the spatial distribution of surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration are examined. Model results indicate that groundwater flow is the dominant landscape process in the LRW. Results are promising, and satisfactory output was obtained with the presented grid‐based SWAT landscape model. Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiencies for daily stream flow were 0.59 and 0.63 for calibration and validation periods, and the model reasonably simulates the impact of the landscape position on surface runoff, subsurface flow and evapotranspiration. Additional revision of the model will likely be necessary to adequately represent temporal variations of transport and flow processes in a watershed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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