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1.

The multifractal fields modeling the spatial distribution of the epicenters and temporal behavior of weak seismicity before the earthquake that occurred on June 17, 2000 in Iceland (M = 6.6) are analyzed. It is shown that the main shock of this event was preceded by the broadening of the f(a) spectra of the proxy fields of both the spatial distribution of the epicenters and the temporal behavior of weak seismicity. The physical interpretation of this effect is presented.

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2.
On 9 May 1989 a M L = 5.2 earthquake struck a region between the islands of Tenerife and Gran Canaria. We investigated the time-spatial evolution of seismic patterns affecting the Canary Islands region during 1989–1995, using a quantitative spatial fractal analysis method. This method allows quantitative investigation of subtle trends in seismicity distribution through time. The fractal analysis indicates that epicenters clustered around a large zone during the May 1989 sequence affected narrow zones during 1991–1993, but then larger zones during 1993–1995 with an overall trend to shallower focal depths. The spatial localisation of seismic data and its time evolution appear to be related to magmatic rather than tectonic activity. Spatial clustering properties of seismicity are consistent with a major intrusive episode in 1989, followed by a period of quiescence and renewed deep intrusive activity from 1993 onwards. This interpretation suggests an increasing probability of future volcanic hazard in the region investigated.  相似文献   

3.
Aftershock sequences of the magnitude M W =6.4 Bingöl earthquake of 1 May, 2003 (Turkey) are studied to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of seismicity parameters of the b value of the frequency-magnitude distribution and the p value describing the temporal decay rate of aftershocks. The catalog taken from the KOERI contains 516 events and one month’s time interval. The b value is found as 1.49 ± 0.07 with Mc =3.2. Considering the error limits, b value is very close to the maximum b value stated in the literature. This larger value may be caused by the paucity of the larger aftershocks with magnitude M D ≥ 5.0. Also, the aftershock area is divided into four parts in order to detect the differences in b value and the changes illustrate the heterogeneity of the aftershock region. The p value is calculated as 0.86 ± 0.11, relatively small. This small p value may be a result of the slow decay rate of the aftershock activity and the small number of aftershocks. For the fitting of a suitable model and estimation of correct values of decay parameters, the sequence is also modeled as a background seismicty rate model. Constant background activity does not appear to be important during the first month of the Bingöl aftershock sequences and this result is coherent with an average estimation of pre-existing seismicity. The results show that usage of simple modified Omori law is reasonable for the analysis. The spatial variability in b value is between 1.2 and 1.8 and p value varies from 0.6 to 1.2. Although the physical interpretation of the spatial variability of these seismicity parameters is not straightforward, the variation of b and p values can be related to the stress and slip distribution after the mainshock, respectively. The lower b values are observed in the high stress regions and to a certain extent, the largest b values are related to Holocene alluvium. The larger p values are found in some part of the aftershock area although no slip occurred after the main shock and it is interpreted that this situation may be caused by the alluvium structure of the region. These results indicate that the spatial distribution in b and p values are generally related to the rupture mechanism and material properties of an aftershock area.  相似文献   

4.
Prior to an earthquake, natural seismicity is correlated across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Many studies have indicated that an earthquake is hard to accurately predict by a single time-dependent precursory method. In this study, we attempt to combine four earthquake prediction methods, i.e. the Pattern Informatics (PI), Load/Unload Response Ratio (LURR), State Vector (SV), and Accelerating Moment Release (AMR) to estimate future earthquake potential. The PI technique is founded on the premise that the change in the seismicity rate is a proxy for the change in the underlying stress. We first use the PI method to quantify localized changes surrounding the epicenters of large earthquakes to objectively quantify the anomalous areas (hot spots) of the upcoming events. Next, we delineate the seismic hazard regions by integrating with regional active fault zones and small earthquake activities. Then, we further evaluate the earthquake potential in the seismic hazard regions using the LURR, SV and AMR methods. Retrospective tests of this new approach on the large earthquakes (M > 6.5) which have occurred in western China over the last 3 years show that the LURR and SV time series usually climb to an anomalously high peak months to years prior to occurrence of a large earthquake. And, the asymptote time, t c, “predicted” by the AMR method correspond to the time of the actual events. The results may suggest that the multi-methods combined approach can be a useful tool to provide stronger constraints on forecasts of the time and location of future large events.  相似文献   

5.
—?An intriguing observation in Greenland is a clear spatial correlation between seismicity and deglaciated areas along passive continental margins, a piece of evidence for earthquake triggering due to postglacial rebound. Another piece of evidence for induced seismicity due to deglaciation derives from earthquake source mechanisms. Sparse, low magnitude seismicity has made it difficult to determine focal mechanisms from Greenland earthquakes. On the basis of two normal faulting events along deglaciated margins and from the spatial distribution of epicenters, earlier investigators suggested that the earthquakes of Greenland are due to postglacial rebound. This interpretation is tested here by using more recent data. Broadband waveforms of teleseismic P waves from the August 10, 1993 (m b = 5.4) and October 14, 1998 (m b = 5.1) earthquakes have been inverted for moment tensors and source parameters. Both mechanisms indicate normal faulting with small strike-slip components: the 1993 event, strike = 348.9°, dip = 41.0°, rake =?56.3°, focal depth = 11?km, seismic moment = 1.03?×?1024 dyne-cm, and M w = 5.3; the 1998 event, strike = 61.6°, dip = 58.0°, rake =?95.5°, focal depth = 5?km, seismic moment = 5.72?×?1023 dyne-cm, and M w = 5.1. These and the two prior events support the theory that the shallow part of the lithosphere beneath the deglaciated margins is under horizontal extension. The observed stress field can be explained as flexural stresses due to removal of ice loads and surface loads by glacial erosion. These local extensional stresses are further enhanced by the spreading stress of continental crust and reactivate preexisting faults. Earthquake characteristics observed from Greenland suggest that the dominant seismogenic stresses are from postglacial rebound and spreading of the continental lithosphere.  相似文献   

6.
A study of the spatial distribution of seismicity parameters is undertaken along Turkey and its vicinity, using the Gumbel’s third asymptotic distribution of extreme values (GIII). The data set used spans of 111 years (1900–2010). The seismicity of the whole region is subdivided into equal area mesh of 1° lat. × 1° long. Various seismicity parameters examined, resulted from the application of the GIII method. The results show a quite good correlation between the seismicity parameters and the tectonic regime of the studied area. For instance high values concentrated around North Anatolian Fault. The x 2-test is applied throughout the whole process and in every stage of GIII, in order to check the accuracy of the obtained results. The spatial distribution of upper-bound (ω) formed a W-shape pattern, which shows the difference in the mechanical structure of the materials in the examined area.  相似文献   

7.
According to the fact that the Xinfengjiang reservoir earthquakes are caused mainly by water seepage, this paper using the data ofM s?2. 0 earthquakes, studies the hydraulic diffusivity of the mainshock zone by the expansion of the distribution area of epicenters. It is indicated thatin-situ hydraulic diffusivity during the preshock activity of the Xinfengjiang reservoir region was about 6. 2 m2/s. However, after the main shock, thein-situ hydraulic diffusivity in the main shock region increased by fifty percent, that is to say, to 9. 7 m2/s. During the long period after main shock occurrence thein-situ hydraulic diffusivity was affected by significant anisotropy of the medium and fluctuation of water level. No regularity can be found. In addition, we compare the diffusivity found by experiment with rock samples collected with thein-situ hydraulic diffusivity estimated. It is shown that the diffusivity of rock samples with fractures is about the same as the diffusivity estimatedin-situ. However, the diffusivity of whole rock samples is 3 orders of magnitudes smaller than that estimatedin-situ. Finally, we discuss the limits on the method by the expansion of distribution area of epicenters in the study of reservoir induced seismicity.  相似文献   

8.
In this study, we adopt an improved Bayesian approach based on free-knot B-spline bases to study the spatial and temporal distribution of the b-value. Synthetic tests show that the improved Bayesian approach has a superior performance compared to the Bayesian approach as well as the widely used maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method in fitting the real variation of b-values. We then apply the improved Bayesian approach to North China and find that the b-value has a clear relevance to seismicity. Temporal changes of b-values are also investigated in two specific areas of North China. We interpret sharp decreases in the b-values as useful messages in earthquake hazard analysis.  相似文献   

9.
Recently the equilibrium property of ergodicity was identified in an earthquake fault system (Tiampo et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 238501, 2003; Phys. Rev. E 75, 066107, 2007). Ergodicity in this context not only requires that the system is stationary for these networks at the applicable spatial and temporal scales, but also implies that they are in a state of metastable equilibrium, one in which the ensemble averages can be substituted for temporal averages when studying their behavior in space and time. In this work we show that this property can be used to identify those regions of parameter space which are stationary when applied to the seismicity of two naturally-occurring earthquake fault networks. We apply this measure to one particular seismicity-based forecasting tool, the Pattern Informatics index (Tiampo et al., Europhys. Lett. 60, 481–487, 2002; Rundle et al., Proc. National Acad. Sci., U.S.A., Suppl. 1, 99, 2463, 2002), in order to test the hypothesis that the identification of ergodic regions can be used to improve and optimize forecasts that rely on historic seismicity catalogs. We also apply the same measure to synthetic catalogs in order to better understand the physical process that affects this accuracy. We show that, in particular, ergodic regions defined by magnitude and time period provide more reliable forecasts of future events in both natural and synthetic catalogs, and that these improvements can be directly related to specific features or properties of the catalogs that impact the behavior of their spatial and temporal statistics.  相似文献   

10.
A multiplet of moderate-magnitude earthquakes (5.1?≤?M?≤?5.6) took place in Zakynthos Island and offshore area (central Ionian Islands, Greece) in April 2006. The activity in the first month occupied an area of almost 35 km long, striking roughly NNW–SSE, whereas aftershocks continued for several months, decaying with time but persisting at the same place. The properties of the activated structure were investigated with accurate relocated data and the available fault plane solutions of some of the stronger events. Both the distribution of seismicity and fault plane solutions show that thrusting with strike-slip motions are both present in high-angle fault segments. The segmentation of the activated structure could be attributed to the faulting complexity inherited from the regional compressive tectonics. Investigation of the spatial and temporal behavior of seismicity revealed possible triggering of adjacent fault segments that may fail individually, thus preventing coalescence in a large main rupture. In an attempt to forecast occurrence probabilities of six of the strong events (M w?≥?5.0), estimations were performed following the restricted epidemic-type aftershock sequence model, applied to data samples before each one of these strong events. Stochastic modeling was also used to identify “quiescence” periods before the examined aftershocks. In two out of the six cases, real aftershock rate did decrease before the next strong shock compared to the modeled one. The latter results reveal that rate decrease is not a clear precursor of strong shocks in the swarm and no quantitative information, suitable to supply probability gain, could be extracted from the data.  相似文献   

11.
Spatial and temporal evolution of the stress field in the seismically active and well-monitored area of the western Gulf of Corinth, Greece, is investigated. The highly accurate and vast regional catalogues were used for inverting seismicity rate changes into stress variation using a rate/state-dependent friction model. After explicitly determining the physical quantities incorporated in the model (characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and reference seismicity rates), we looked for stress changes across space and over time and their possible association with earthquake clustering and fault interactions. We focused our attention on the Efpalio doublet of January 2010 (M = 5.5 and M = 5.4), with a high aftershock productivity, and attempted to reproduce and interpret stress changes prior to and after the initiation of this seismicity burst. The spatial distribution of stress changes was evaluated after smoothing the seismological data by means of a probability density function (PDF). The inverted stress calculations were compared with the calculations derived from an independent approach (elastic dislocation model) and this comparison was quantified. The results of the two methods are in good agreement (up to 80 %) in the far field, with the inversion technique providing more robust results in the near field, where they are more sensitive to the uncertainties of coseismic slip distribution. It is worth mentioning that the stress inversion model proved to be a very sensitive stress meter, able to detect even small stress changes correlated with spatio–temporal earthquake clustering. Data analysis was attempted from 1975 onwards to simulate the stress changes associated with stronger earthquakes over a longer time span. This approach revealed that only M > 5.5 events induce considerable stress variations, although in some cases there was no evidence for such stress changes even after an M > 5.5 earthquake.  相似文献   

12.
The spatial-temporal variations in localization of the sources of earthquakes with H ≥ 14 km are reviewed for the Garm region. The uneven distribution of such earthquakes is related to the block structure: their amount is higher in the weakened zones rather than in blocks. Three weakened zones are characterized by higher activity of deepened seismicity, which varies in time and increases before the earthquakes with K ≥ 12.5. The temporal variations in distribution of earthquake sources with depth allow a suggestion of the relation of the velocity of the Earth’s rotation and activity of deepened seismicity.  相似文献   

13.
Investigation of the spatiotemporal properties of the 2003 Lefkada seismic sequence is performed through non-extensive statistical physics. Information on highly accurate aftershock source parameters became feasible from the recordings of a portable digital seismological network that was installed and operated in the study area, during the evolution of the seismic sequence. Thus, the spatiotemporal distribution of aftershocks onto the main and neighboring fault segments was investigated in detail, enabling the recognition of four distinctive seismicity clusters separated by less active patches. The aftershock spatiotemporal properties are studied here, using the ideas of non-extensive statistical physics (NESP). The cumulative distribution functions of the inter-event times and the inter-event distances are presented using the data set in each seismicity cluster, and the analysis results in values for the statistical thermodynamic q T and q D parameters for each cluster, where q T varies from 1.16 to 1.47 and q D from 0.42 to 0.77 for the inter-event times and distances distributions, respectively. These values confirm the complexity and non-additivity of the spatiotemporal evolution of seismicity, and the applicability of the NESP approach in investigating aftershocks sequence. The temporal pattern is discussed using the closely connected to NESP approach of superstatistics, which is based on a superposition of ordinary local equilibrium statistical mechanics. The result indicates that the temporal evolution of the Lefkada aftershock sequence in clusters A, B and C is governed by very low number of degrees of freedom, while D is a less organized seismicity structure with a much higher number of degrees of freedom.  相似文献   

14.
We explore fractal properties of two observed seismicity distributions prior to the 2003 M w 7.4 Colima, Mexico and 1992 M w 7.3 Landers, USA earthquakes, together with several mathematical fractal distributions and two non-fractal ones, in order to estimate minimum reliable sample sizes, determine whether fractality for observed seismicity is essentially different from random uniform distributions, and explore the possibility of extracting premonitory information from fractal characteristics of seismicity before large earthquakes. Sample sizes above 800 events for whole catalogs appear to be sufficient to maintain ordered multifractality and to yield dimension estimates that vary smoothly and reliably. Fractal estimates appear to be best for whole catalogs that include aftershocks. The fractal characteristics of spatial distributions of seismicity are essentially different from those of the uniform random distribution, which is the null hypothesis of a non-fractal distribution with minimum information. The fractal dimensions and afractality measures of seismicity distributions change with time and show distinctive behaviors associated with foreshocks and main events, although these behaviors are different for each example. Results suggest the possibility of a priori identification of foreshocks to large earthquakes. A combination of fractal dimension and afractality measures over time may be helpful in large earthquake premonitory studies.  相似文献   

15.
渭河断陷及邻近地区震源空间分布规律探讨   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文
选取１０３°～１１３°Ｅ,３１°～３９°Ｎ范围内陕西、山西、河南、湖北、甘肃、宁夏等省（区）共７９个地震观测台站１９８４—１９９３年的观测资料,对于被４个以上台站所记录到的地震,根据其直达横波与纵波的到时差,采用鲍威尔（Ｐｏｗｅｌ）搜索法重新进行了定位,测定了震源深度,共得到２０５１个可定震中的地震的震源深度数据．作出了渭河断陷及邻近地区现代地震的震中分布图、震源空间分布图、震源深度的平均等值线分布图、震源深度的经向剖面图和纬向剖面图．根据这些资料对震源空间分布规律进行了初步探讨．结果表明,渭河断陷及邻近地区震源的空间分布是不均匀的,与该地区大地构造的差异性及地壳速度结构的非均匀性密切相关．  相似文献   

16.
In the study of the predictability of great earthquakes in the perspective of seismicity analysis, two issues are presently controversial, and need more detailed studies based on real earthquake cases. The first issue is whether there exists pre-shock accelerating behavior of seismicity which is robust against the changing of spatio-temporal ranges for the sampling of seismic events, and the second is whether such an accelerating behavior is physically associated with an approach to the critical point. To answer these two questions, a retrospective case study was conducted on the 12 May 2008, Wenchuan earthquake, using the local earthquake catalogue in Sichuan and Yunnan Provinces, China, with cutoff magnitude M L3.0, from 1977 to 2008. The results show that the answer to the first question appears to be ‘yes’; that is, in a finite spatial domain within the last couple of years before the event, clear accelerating seismicity could be observed. The answer to the second question cannot be obtained merely by examining seismicity data. However, detailed analysis of the accelerating behavior reveals a potential spatial correlation between the accelerating region and a known asperity, which might be an evidence for that the observed acceleration may have a geometrical or mechanical rather than statistical origin.  相似文献   

17.
The Vogtland/Western Bohemia region is part of the Saxothuringian Earthquake Province. It is an isolated area of active intraplate seismicity. Observations of the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 are summarized. More than 17000 earthquakes have been detected microseismically with M L reaching from about –1.5 to 4.6. In the considered time interval, the catalogue of Vogtland events can be regarded as complete for magnitudes larger than 1.8. The region is well known for the occurrence of earthquakes clustered contemporarily in time and space. In this study, altogether 82 clusters are defined. Among them, clusters with swarm properties are distinguished from clusters with main shock accompanied by fore- and aftershocks, and from single events. 48 swarms are detected.The magnitude-frequency distribution of the maximum magnitudes of the clusters is studied. In the magnitude range 1.8  M L  3.1, a bimodal character of the magnitude-frequency distribution is detected for both swarms and nonswarm-like events. The slope is greater for larger magnitudes than in the small-magnitude range. A gap in the magnitude-frequency distribution of clusters is observed for maximum magnitudes between 3.1 and 4.3. Furthermore, clusters themselves are characterized by the b-values of their magnitude-frequency distributions. Swarms show b-values greater than 0.7. Epicenters of swarms are confined to a few subregions. Epicenters of nonswarm-like events are distributed over a larger region than epicenters of swarms but hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like clusters may be located close to each other.The envelope of the distribution of magnitudes as a function of time is investigated. In the considered time interval, a statistically significant recurrence of strong events of about 72 months is discovered by a frequency analysis. Comparing the seismicity between 1897 and 1908 with the seismicity between 1962 and 1998 temporal variations in the recurrence become obvious. The Nový Kostel zone is discussed in more detail. The average hypocenters of swarms are located on a SW-dipping fault segment that intersects the Eger Rift in NNW-SSE direction.Discussing properties of the seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia region it is concluded that the increased seismicity may be explained by the presence of fluids on deep reaching faults. The occurrence of swarms, their variability as well as the small distances between hypocenters of swarms and nonswarm-like events point to strong lateral and possibly temporal changes of the properties of the fault system.  相似文献   

18.
—The size distribution of earthquakes has been investigated since the early 20th century. In 1932 Wadati assumed a power-law distribution n(E) = kE ?w for earthquake energy E and estimated the w value to be 1.7 ～ 2.1. Since the introduction of the magnitude-frequency relation by Gutenberg and Richter in 1944 in the form of log n(M) = a?bM, the spatial or temporal variation (or stability) of b value has been a frequently discussed subject in seismicity studies. The log n(M) versus M plots for some data sets exhibit considerable deviation from a straight line. Many modifications of the G-R relation have been proposed to represent such character. The modified equations include the truncated G-R equation, two-range G-R equation, equations with various additional terms to the original G-R equation. The gamma distribution of seismic moments is equivalent to one of these equations.¶In this paper we examine which equation is the most suitable to magnitude data from Japan and the world using AIC. In some cases, the original G-R equation is the most suitable, however in some cases other equations fit far better. The AIC is also a powerful tool to test the significance of the difference in parameter values between two sets of magnitude data under the assumption that the magnitudes are distributed according to a specified equation. Even if there is no significant difference in b value between two data sets (the G-R relation is assumed), we may find a significant difference between the same data sets under the assumption of another relation. To represent a character of the size distribution, there are indexes other than parameters in the magnitude-frequency distribution. The η value is one of such numbers. Although it is certain that these indexes vary among different data sets and are usable to represent a certain feature of seismicity, the usefulness of these indexes in some practical problems such as foreshock discrimination has not yet been established.  相似文献   

19.
By complex analysis of GPS velocities, seismicity, fractal dimensions of the spatial distribution of seismic epicenters, focal mechanisms of the earthquakes, and stress state of the Earth’s crust, four seismic zones (Balaken-Zagatala, Sheki-Gabala, Shamakhy-Ismailly, and Absheron) are revealed within the southern slope of the Greater Caucasus. The suggested method can be used as a criterion in seismotectonic zoning; it could also be useful in the assessment of seismic hazards in the collision zones.  相似文献   

20.
The modeling results are presented on the annual dynamics of seismicity in the northeastern segment of the Amur plate, which are obtained from statistical studies of the number of earthquakes with magnitudes 2 ≤ М ≤ 6 in different phases of variations in the Earth’s rotation rate. We have calculated a degree of relationship between the observed seismicity variations and phases of decrease and increase in the Earth’s rotation rate for the magnitude ranges between 2 ≤ М < 4 and 4 ≤ М < 5 using rank correlation methods. It has been established that epicenters of earthquakes with magnitudes 5 ≤ М ≤ 6 are spatially grouped into a sequence of homogeneous equally spaced, 3.5°–4°, on average, east-westerly oriented clusters.  相似文献   

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