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1.
We present an assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on hydropower production within a paradigmatic, very highly exploited cryospheric area of upper Valtellina valley in the Italian Alps. Based on dependable and unique hydrological measures from our high‐altitude hydrometric network Idrostelvio during 2006–2015, we set up the Poly‐Hydro model to mimic the cryospheric processes driving hydrological flow formation in this high‐altitude area. We then set up an optimization tool, which we call Poly‐Power, to maximize the revenue of the plant manager under given hydrological regimes, namely, by proper operation of the hydroelectric production scheme (reservoirs, pipelines, and power plants) of the area. We then pursue hydrological projections until 2100, feeding Poly‐Hydro with the downscaled outputs of three general circulation models from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report, under the scenarios Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. We assess hydrological flows in two reference decades, that is, at half century (2040–2049), and end of century (2090–2099). We then feed the so obtained hydrological scenarios as inputs to Poly‐Power, and we project future production of hydroelectric power, with and without reoperation of the system. The average annual stream flows for hydropower production decreases along the century under our scenarios (?21 to +7%, on average ? 5% at half century; ?17 to ?2%, average ? 8%, end of century), with ice cover melting unable to offset such decrease. Reduction in snowfall and increase in liquid rainfall are the main factors affecting the modified hydrological regime. Energy production (and revenues) at half century may increase under our scenarios (?9 to +15%, +3% on average). At the end of century in spite of a projected increase on average (?7 to +6%, +1% on average), under the warmest scenario RCP 8.5 decrease of energy production is consistently projected (?4% on average). Our results provide an array of potential scenarios of modified hydropower production under future climate change and may be used for brain storming of adaptation strategies.  相似文献   

2.
ABSTRACT

The impacts of future climate change on the agricultural water supply capacities of irrigation facilities in the Geum River basin (9645.5 km2) of South Korea were investigated using an integrated modeling framework that included a water balance network model (MODSIM) and a watershed-scale hydrologic model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, SWAT). The discharges and baseflows from upland drainage areas were estimated using SWAT, and the predicted flow was used to feed agricultural reservoirs and multipurpose dams in subwatersheds. Using a split sampling method, we calibrated the daily streamflows and dam inflows at three locations using data from 6 years, including 3 years of calibration data (2005–2007) followed by 3 years of validation data (2008–2010). In the MODSIM model, the entire basin was divided into 14 subwatersheds in which various agricultural irrigation facilities such as agricultural reservoirs, pumping stations, diversions, culverts and groundwater wells were defined as a network of hydraulic structures within each subwatershed. These hydraulic networks between subwatersheds were inter-connected to allow watershed-scale analysis and were further connected to municipal and industrial water supplies under various hydrologic conditions. Projected climate data from the HadGEM3-RA RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the period of 2006–2099 were imported to SWAT to calculate the water yield, and the output was transferred to MODSIM in the form of time-series boundary conditions. The maximum shortage rate of agricultural water was estimated as 38.2% for the 2040s and 2080s under the RCP 4.5 scenario but was lower under the RCP 8.5 scenario (21.3% in the 2040s and 22.1% in the 2080s). Under the RCP 4.5 scenario, the projected shortage rate was higher than that during the measured baseline period (1982–2011) of 25.6% and the RCP historical period (1982–2005) of 30.1%. The future elevated drought levels are primarily attributed to the increasingly concentrated rainfall distribution throughout the year under a monsoonal climate, as projected by the IPCC climate scenarios.
EDITOR Z.W. Kundzewicz; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned  相似文献   

3.
This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225 km2) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 1989?2009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 2049?2065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4°C to +2.6°C) and a decrease in total precipitation (?22% to ?31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (?19% to ?63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment.
EDITOR M.C. Acreman

ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch  相似文献   

4.
The hydrological response to the potential future climate change in Yangtze River Basin (YRB), China, was assessed by using an ensemble of 54 climate change simulations. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 simulations under two new Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios were downscaled and used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model. This study found that the range of temperature changes is homogeneous for almost the entire region, with an average annual increase of more than 2 °C under RCP4.5 and even more than 4 °C under RCP8.5 in the end of the twenty first century. The warmest period (June–July–August) of the year would experience lower changes than the colder ones (December–January–February). Overall, mean precipitation was projected to increase slightly in YRB, with large dispersion among different global climate models, especially during the dry season months. These phenomena lead to changes in future streamflow for three mainstream hydrological stations (Cuntan, Yichang, and Datong), with slightly increasing annual average streamflows, especially at the end of twenty first century. Compared with the percentage change of mean flow, the high flow shows (90th percentile on the probability of no exceedance) a higher increasing trend and the low flow (10th percentile) shows a decreasing trend or lower increasing trend. The maximum daily discharges with 5, 10, 15, and 30-year return periods show an increasing trend in most sub-basins in the future. Therefore, extreme hydrological events (e.g., floods and droughts) will increase significantly, although the annual mean streamflow shows insignificant change. The findings of this study would provide scientific supports to implement the integrated adaptive water resource management for climate change at regional scales in the YRB.  相似文献   

5.
The aim of this study was to quantify climate change impact on future blue water (BW) and green water (GW) resources as well as the associated uncertainties for 4 subbasins of the Beninese part of the Niger River Basin. The outputs of 3 regional climate models (HIRHAM5, RCSM, and RCA4) under 2 emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) were downscaled for the historical period (1976–2005) and for the future (2021–2050) using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM). Comparison of climate variables between these 2 periods suggests that rainfall will increase (1.7% to 23.4%) for HIRHAM5 and RCSM under both RCPs but shows mixed trends (?8.5% to 17.3%) for RCA4. Mean temperature will also increase up to 0.48 °C for HIRHAM5 and RCSM but decrease for RCA4 up to ?0.37 °C. Driven by the downscaled climate data, future BW and GW were evaluated with hydrological models validated with streamflow and soil moisture, respectively. The results indicate that GW will increase in all the 4 investigated subbasins, whereas BW will only increase in one subbasin. The overall uncertainty associated with the evaluation of the future BW and GW was quantified through the computation of the interquartile range of the total number of model realizations (combinations of regional climate models and selected hydrological models) for each subbasin. The results show larger uncertainty for the quantification of BW than GW. To cope with the projected decrease in BW that could adversely impact the livelihoods and food security of the local population, recommendations for the development of adequate adaptation strategies are briefly discussed.  相似文献   

6.
Abstract

Most climate change projections show important decreases in water availability in the Mediterranean region by the end of this century. We assess those main climate change impacts on water resources in three medium-sized catchments with varying climatic conditions in northeastern Spain. A combination of hydrological modelling and climate projections with B1 and A2 IPCC emission scenarios is performed to infer future streamflows. The largest reduction (34%) in mean streamflows (for 2076–2100) is expected in the headwaters of the two wettest catchments, while lower decreases (25% of mean value for 2076–2100) are expected in the drier one. In all three catchments, autumn and summer are the seasons with the most notable projected decreases in streamflow, of 50% and 30%, respectively. Thus, ecological flows in the study area might be noticeably influenced by climate change, especially in the headwaters of the wet catchments.  相似文献   

7.
Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are overarching issues that have brought challenges for sustainable water resources management. In this study, surface water resources in typical regions of China are projected in the context of climate change. A water balance model based on the Fu rational function equation is established to quantify future natural runoff. The model is calibrated using data from 13 hydrological stations in 10 first-class water resources zones of China. The future precipitation and temperature series come from the ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) climate dataset. Taking natural runoff for 1961–1990 as a baseline, the impacts of climate change on natural runoff are studied under three emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated results indicate that the arid and semi-arid region in the northern part of China is more sensitive to climate change compared to the humid and semi-humid region in the south. In the near future (2011–2050), surface water resources will decrease in most parts of China (except for the Liaozhong and Daojieba catchments), especially in the Haihe River Basin and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The decrement of surface water resources in the northern part of China is more than that in the southern part. For the periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, surface water resources are expected to decrease by 12–13% in the northern part of China, while those in the southern part will decrease by 7–10%.
EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis

ASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch  相似文献   

8.
In this study, the impacts of climate change on crop water requirements and irrigation water requirements on the regional cropping pattern were evaluated using two climate change scenarios and combinations of 20 GCM models. Different models including CROPWAT, MODFLOW, and statistical models were used to evaluate the climate change impacts. The results showed that in the future period (2017 to 2046) the temperature in all months of the year will increase at all stations. The average annual precipitation decline in Isfahan, Tiran, Flavarjan, and Lenj stations for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are 18.6 and 27.6%, 15.2 and 18%, 22.5 and 31.5%, and 10.5 and 12.1%, respectively. The average increase in the evapotranspiration for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios are about 2.5 and 4.1%, respectively. The irrigation water demands increases considerably and for some crops, on average 18%. Among the existing crops in the cropping pattern, barley, cumin, onion, wheat, and forage crops are more sensitive and their water demand will increase significantly. Results indicate that climate change could have a significant impact on water resources consumption. By considering irrigation efficiency in the region, climate change impacts will result in about 35 to 50 million m3/year, over-extraction from the aquifer. This additional exploitation causes an extra drop of 0.4 to 0.8 m in groundwater table per year in the aquifer. Therefore, with regard to the critical condition of the aquifer, management and preventive measures to deal with climate change in the future is absolutely necessary.  相似文献   

9.
Tropical river basins are experiencing major hydrological alterations as a result of climate variability and deforestation. These drivers of flow changes are often difficult to isolate in large basins based on either observations or experiments; however, combining these methods with numerical models can help identify the contribution of climate and deforestation to hydrological alterations. This paper presents a study carried out in the Tapaj?s River (Brazil), a 477,000 km2 basin in South‐eastern Amazonia, in which we analysed the role of annual land cover change on daily river flows. Analysis of observed spatial and temporal trends in rainfall, forest cover, and river flow metrics for 1976 to 2008 indicates a significant shortening of the wet season and reduction in river flows through most of the basin despite no significant trend in annual precipitation. Coincident with seasonal trends over the past 4 decades, over 35% of the original forest (140,000 out of 400,000 km2) was cleared. In order to determine the effects of land clearing and rainfall variability to trends in river flows, we conducted hindcast simulations with ED2 + R, a terrestrial biosphere model incorporating fine scale ecosystem heterogeneity arising from annual land‐use change and linked to a flow routing scheme. The simulations indicated basin‐wide increases in dry season flows caused by land cover transitions beginning in the early 1990s when forest cover dropped to 80% of its original extent. Simulations of historical potential vegetation in the absence of land cover transitions indicate that reduction in rainfall during the dry season (mean of ?9 mm per month) would have had an opposite and larger magnitude effect than deforestation (maximum of +4 mm/month), leading to the overall net negative trend in river flows. In light of the expected increase in future climate variability and water infrastructure development in the Amazon and other tropical basins, this study presents an approach for analysing how multiple drivers of change are altering regional hydrology and water resources management.  相似文献   

10.
Climate change adaptation has become the current focus of research due to the remarkable potential of climate change to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability. Although reservoir operation is a potential adaptation option, earlier studies explicitly demonstrated only its historical quantitative effects. Therefore, this article evaluated the possibility of reservoir operation from an adaptation viewpoint for regulating the future flow using the H08 global hydrological model with the Chao Phraya River basin as a case study. This basin is the largest river system in Thailand and has often been affected by extreme weather challenges in the past. Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias-corrected outputs of three general circulation models from 2080 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The important conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) the operation of existing and hypothetical (i.e., construction under planning) reservoirs cannot reduce the future high flows below the channel carrying capacity, although it can increase low flows in the basin. This indicates that changes in the magnitude of future high flow due to climate change are likely to be larger than those achieved by reservoir operation and there is a need for other adaptation options. (ii) A combination of reservoir operation and afforestation was considered as an adaptation strategy, but the magnitude of the discharge reduction in the wet season was still smaller than the increase caused by warming. This further signifies the necessity of combining other structural, as well as non-structural, measures. Overall, this adaptation approach for assessing the effect of reservoir operation in reducing the climate change impacts using H08 model can be applied not only in the study area but also in other places where climate change signals are robust.  相似文献   

11.
Recharge areas of the Guarani Aquifer System (GAS) are particularly sensitive and vulnerable to climate variability; therefore, the understanding of infiltration mechanisms for aquifer recharge and surface run‐off generation represent a relevant issue for water resources management in the southeastern portion of the Brazilian territory, particularly in the Jacaré‐Pepira River watershed. The main purpose of this study is to understand the interactions between precipitation, surface water, and groundwater using stable isotopes during the strong 2014–2016 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. The large variation in the isotopic composition of precipitation (from ?9.26‰ to +0.02‰ for δ18O and from ?63.3‰ to +17.6‰ for δ2H), mainly associated with regional climatic features, was not reflected in the isotopic composition of surface water (from ?7.84‰ to ?5.83‰ for δ18O and from ?49.7‰ to +33.6‰ for δ2H), mainly due to the monthly sampling frequency, and groundwater (from ?7.04‰ to ?7.76‰ for δ18O and from ?49.5‰ to ?44.7‰ for δ2H), which exhibited less variation throughout the year. However, variations in deuterium excess (d‐excess) in groundwater and surface water suggest the occurrence of strong secondary evaporation during the infiltration process, corresponding with groundwater level recovery. Similar isotopic composition in groundwater and surface water, as well as the same temporal variations in d‐excess and line‐conditioned excess denote the strong connectivity between these two reservoirs during baseflow recession periods. Isotopic mass balance modelling and hydrograph separation estimate that the groundwater contribution varied between 70% and 80%, however, during peak flows, the isotopic mass balance tends to overestimate the groundwater contribution when compared with the other hydrograph separation methods. Our findings indicate that the application of isotopic mass balance methods for ungauged rivers draining large groundwater reservoirs, such as the GAS outcrop, could provide a powerful tool for hydrological studies in the future, helping in the identification of flow contributions to river discharge draining these areas.  相似文献   

12.
ABSTRACT

The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect that climate change will have on groundwater recharge at the Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico. The groundwater recharge is calculated from a monthly water balance model considering eight methods of potential and actual evapotranspiration. Historical data from 1961–2000 and climate model outputs from five downscaled general circulation models in the near horizon (2015–2039), with representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 are used. The results estimate a recharge of 118 ± 33 mm·year–1 (around 10% of precipitation) in the historical period. Considering the uncertainty from GCMs under different RCP and evapotranspiration scenarios, our monthly water balance model estimates a groundwater recharge of 92 ± 40 mm·year–1 (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 38 mm·year–1 (RCP8.5) which represent a reduction of 23% and 20%, respectively, a result that threatens the socio-ecological balance of the region.  相似文献   

13.
The Tagus River basin is an ultimately important water source for hydropower production, urban and agricultural water supply in Spain and Portugal. Growing electricity and water supply demands, over‐regulation of the river and construction of new dams, as well as large inter‐basin and intra‐basin water transfers aggravated by strong natural variability of climate in the catchment, have already imposed significant pressures on the river. The substantial reduction of discharge is observed already now, and projected climatic change is expected to alter the water budget of the catchment further.In this study, we address the effects of projected climate change on the water resources availability in the Tagus River basin and influence of potential changes on hydropower generation of the three important reservoirs in the basin. The catchment‐scale, process‐based eco‐hydrological model soil and water integrated model was set up, calibrated and validated for the entire Tagus River basin, taking into account 15 large reservoirs in the catchment. The future climate projections were selected from those generated within the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. They include five bias‐corrected climatic datasets for the region, obtained from global circulation model runs under two emissions scenario – moderate and extreme ones – and covered the whole century. The results show a strong agreement among model runs in projecting substantial decrease of discharge of the Tagus River discharge and, consequently, a strong decrease in hydropower production under both future climate scenarios. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

14.
Glacial retreat and the thawing of permafrost due to climate warming have altered the hydrological cycle in cryospheric‐dominated watersheds. In this study, we analysed the impacts of climate change on the water budget for the upstream of the Shule River Basin on the northeast Tibetan Plateau. The results showed that temperature and precipitation increased significantly during 1957–2010 in the study area. The hydrological cycle in the study area has intensified and accelerated under recent climate change. The average increasing rate of discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin was 7.9 × 106 m3/year during 1957–2010. As the mean annual glacier mass balance lost ?62.4 mm/year, the impact of glacier discharge on river flow has increased, especially after the 2000s. The contribution of glacier melt to discharge was approximately 187.99 × 108 m3 or 33.4% of the total discharge over the study period. The results suggested that the impact of warming overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off increase during the study period. The evapotranspiration (ET) increased during 1957–2010 with a rate of 13.4 mm/10 years. On the basis of water balance and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and the Global Land Data Assimilation System data, the total water storage change showed a decreasing trend, whereas groundwater increased dramatically after 2006. As permafrost has degraded under climate warming, surface water can infiltrate deep into the ground, thus changing both the watershed storage and the mechanisms of discharge generation. Both the change in terrestrial water storage and changes in groundwater have had a strong control on surface discharge in the upstream of the Shule River Basin. Future trends in run‐off are forecasted based on climate scenarios. It is suggested that the impact of warming will overcome the effect of precipitation increase on run‐off in the study area. Further studies such as this will improve understanding of water balance in cold high‐elevation regions.  相似文献   

15.
This paper describes the hydrological changes caused by inter‐basin water transfer and the reservoir development on the hydrological regimes of two rivers. The Sabljaki Reservoir in the Zagorska Mre?nica River and the Bukovik Reservoir in the upper Dobra River began operation in 1959. Both are part of the hydroelectric power plant (HEPP) Gojak, whose installed capacity is 50 m3/s. Their water volumes at the spillway altitudes of 320·10 and 320·15 m a. s. l. are 3·3 × 106 and 0·24 × 106 m3 respectively. Both the Dobra and Mre?nica Rivers are losing, sinking and underground karst rivers. A 9376‐m‐long tunnel provides water from the Sabljaki Reservoir to the HEPP Gojak, which was constructed in the Lower Dobra River. The Sabljaki Reservoir is located in the Pla?ki karst polje, while the Bukovik Reservoir is located in the neighbouring Ogulin karst polje. The consequences of the inter‐basin water transfer are strong and have caused abrupt changes in the hydrological regimes of the downstream sections of both rivers. At the same time, the construction and development of both the reservoirs have also caused hydrological changes to the upstream section of the Upper Dobra River. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

16.
This paper presents the use of stable isotopes of water for hydrological characterization and flow component partitioning in the Red River Delta (RRD), the downstream section of the Red River. Water samples were collected monthly during 2015 from the mainstream section of the river and its right bank tributaries flowing through the RRD. In general, δ18O and δ2H river signatures were depleted in summer–autumn (May–October) and elevated in winter–spring (November–April), displaying seasonal variation in response to regional monsoon air mass contest. The Pacific equatorial–maritime air mass dominates in summer and the northern Asia continental air mass controls in winter. Results show that water of the RRD tributaries stems solely from local sources and is completely separated from water arriving from upstream subbasins. This separation is due to the extensive management of the RRD (e.g., dykes and dams) for the purposes of irrigation and inundation prevention. Mainstream river section δ18O and δ2H compositions range from ?10.58 and ?73.74‰ to ?6.80 and ?43.40‰, respectively, and the corresponding ranges inside the RRD were from ?9.35 and ?64.27‰ to ?2.09 and ?15.80‰. A combination of data analysis and hydrological simulation confirms the role of upstream hydropower reservoirs in retaining and mixing upstream water. River water inside the RRD experienced strong evaporation characterized by depleted d‐excess values, becoming negative in summer. On the other hand, the main stream of the Red River has d‐excess values around 10‰, indicating moderate evaporation. Hydrograph separation shows that in upstream subbasins, the groundwater fraction dominates the river flow composition, especially during low flow regimes. Inside the RRD, the river receives groundwater during the dry season, whereas groundwater replenishment occurs in the rainy season. Annual evaporation obtained from this hydrograph separation computation was about 6.3% of catchment discharge, the same order as deduced from the difference between subbasin precipitation and discharge values. This study shows the necessity to re‐evaluate empirical approaches in large river hydrology assessment schemes, especially in the context of climate change.  相似文献   

17.
Projections of changes in climate are important in assessing the potential impacts of climate change on natural and social systems. However, current knowledge on assembling different GCMs to estimate future climate change over the Pear River basin is still limited so far. This study examined the capability of BMA and arithmetic mean (AM) method in assembling precipitation and temperature from CMIP5 under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios over the Pearl River basin. Results show that the BMA outperforms the traditional AM method. Precipitation tends to increase over the basin under RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios, whereas decrease under RCP8.5. The most remarkable increase of precipitation is found in the northern region under RCP2.6 scenario. The linear trend of the monthly mean near-surface air temperature increases with the growing CO2 concentration. The warming trends in four seasons are distinct. The warming rate is prominent in summer and spring than that in other season, meanwhile it is larger in western region than in other parts of the basin. The findings can provide beneficial reference to water resources and agriculture management strategies, as well as the adaptation and mitigation strategies for floods and droughts under the context of global climate change.  相似文献   

18.
Long Xuyen Quadrangle is one of the important agricultural areas of the Mekong Delta of Vietnam accounting for 25% of rice production. In recent years, the area faces drought and salinization problems, as part of climate change impact and sea level rise. These are the main causes that led to the crop water deficits for agricultural production. Therefore, this work was conducted to predict crop water requirement (CWR) based on consideration of other related meteorological factors and further redefine the crop planting calendar (CPC) for three main cropping seasons including winter–spring (WS), summer–autumn (SA) and autumn–spring (AS) using the Cropwat crop model based on the current climate conditions and future climate change scenarios. Meteorological data for the baseline period (2006–2016) and future corresponding to timescales 2020s, 2055s and 2090s of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP)4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to predict CWR and CPC for the study area. The results showed that WS and SA crops needed more irrigation water than AS crop and the highest irrigation water requirement of the WS and SA crops occurred on developmental stage, while the AW crop appeared on growth, developmental and late stage for the baseline and timescales of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Calculation results of the shift of CPC indicated that the CWR of the AW crop decreased lowest approximately 6.6–20.6% for timescales of RCP4.5 scenario and 20.6–25.5% for RCP8.5 scenario compared with the baseline.  相似文献   

19.
Water resources availability in the semiarid regions of Iran has experienced severe reduction because of increasing water use and lengthening of dry periods. To better manage this resource, we investigated the impact of climate change on water resources and wheat yield in the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semiarid region of Iran. Future climate scenarios for 2020–2040 were generated from the Canadian Global Coupled Model for scenarios A1B, B1 and A2. We constructed a hydrological model of KRB using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to project water resources availability. Blue and green water components were modeled with uncertainty ranges for both historic and future data. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting Version 2 was used with parallel processing option to calibrate the model based on river discharge and wheat yield. Furthermore, a newly developed program called critical continuous day calculator was used to determine the frequency and length of critical periods for precipitation, maximum temperature and soil moisture. We found that in the northern part of KRB, freshwater availability will increase from 1716 to 2670 m3/capita/year despite an increase of 28% in the population in 2025 in the B1 scenario. In the southern part, where much of the agricultural lands are located, the freshwater availability will on the average decrease by 44%. The long‐term average irrigated wheat yield, however, will increase in the south by 1.2%–21% in different subbasins; but for rain‐fed wheat, this variation is from ?4% to 38%. The results of critical continuous day calculator showed an increase of up to 25% in both frequency and length of dry periods in south Karkheh, whereas increasing flood events could be expected in the northern and western parts of the region. In general, there is variability in the impact of climate change in the region where some areas will experience net negative whereas other areas will experience a net positive impact. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

20.

The source region of Yellow river is an alpine river sensitive to climate changes, but the potential effects of climate change on hydrological regime characteristics and ecological implications are less understood. This study aims to assess the response of the alterations in the flow regimes over the source region of Yellow river to climate change using Soil and Water Integrated Model driven by different Global Circulation Models (GFDL-ESM2M, IPSL-CM5A-LR and MIROC-ESM-CHEM) under three Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Indicators of hydrological alteration and River impact index are employed to evaluate streamflow regime alterations at multiple temporal scales. Results show that the magnitude of monthly and annual streamflow except May, the magnitude and duration of the annual extreme, and the number of reversals are projected to increase in the near future period (2020–2049) and far future period (2070–2099) compared to the baseline period (1971–2000). The timing of annual maximum flows is expected to shift backwards. The source region of Yellow river is expected to undergo low change degree as per the scenarios RCP2.6 for both two future periods and under the scenarios RCP4.5 for the near future period, whereas high change degree under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the far period on the daily scale. On the monthly scale, climate changes mainly have effects on river flow magnitude and timing. The basin would suffer an incipient impact alteration in the far period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, while low impact in other scenarios. These changes in flow regimes could have several positive impacts on aquatic ecosystems in the near period but more detrimental effects in the far period.

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