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1.
The effect of climate on the present-day formation conditions of the regimes of annual and base runoff in Eastern Siberia
rivers and changes in those regimes are studied. The significant climate warming in Eastern Siberia in recent decades is shown
to be accompanied by not only an increase in air temperature and some increase in precipitation, but also by a considerable
changes in the annual and seasonal values of river and groundwater runoff. Hydrometeorological data are used to analyze variations
in the mean annual and mean base runoff over the entire observation period divided into subperiods of 1940–1969 and 1970–2005.
Plots, diagrams, and tables are constructed for the most representative gauges. The zoning of the territory by the runoff
formation conditions was carried out and new estimates were derived for total water resources and natural groundwater resources
for 1970–2005 with the construction of maps in ArcMap program. 相似文献
2.
The formation and distribution of present-day water resources under the effect of changing climate are studied. Seasonal, annual, and many-year variations in the regime of spring-flood and dry-season runoff of rivers with drainage areas from 2000 to 20000 km2, reflecting the zonal landscape-climatic conditions of runoff formation, are considered. It is shown that various and often contradictory demands of water users to water supply distribution over seasons of the year result in that the entire water management complex depends on not only the total volume of water resources, but also on the water regime characteristics of rivers in different phases of hydrological year. It was established that the climate changes recorded in the recent decades radically change the pattern of space and time variations in runoff characteristics. 相似文献
3.
N. I. Tananaev 《Water Resources》2012,39(6):648-656
Regularities in the manifestation of hysteresis effect in the relationship between water discharge and suspended load in rivers in the permafrost zone of Siberia and Far East are studied for individual phases of water regime. The existing typifications of hysteresis curves, the formation mechanisms of suspended load peaks in permafrost zone rivers are considered. Data of regime observations are used to determine the predominant types of hysteresis curves discharge-sediment load for 27 gages on 16 large rivers in the region. The role of permafrost conditions and processes in the formation of the hysteresis effect is identified and a relationship between the type of the hysteresis curve and the predominant sediment source is established. 相似文献
4.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3):450-464
Abstract On the basis of analysing the genesis, recurrence and severity of flood hazards, a regional flood hazard analysis of the southern area of East Siberia has been carried out. The greatest flood hazard corresponds to the relatively densely populated area of southern East Siberia: the Upper Yenisei, Angara and Upper Lena river basins and the Lake Baikal watershed. Typically, the most hazardous floods include those caused by surges produced by damage to the dams of the Angara—Yenisei hydropower cascade; flash floods are also an extreme hazard. Maximum runoff factors were used to delineate regions within the study area, and the hazard severity was scored for the Irkutsk region. An inventory of the ice-dam and ice-jam areas, as well as of the streamflow sites with maximum runoff of different origins predominating in the Angara and Lena river basins, showed that the study area includes 78 and 19 ice-dam and ice-jam locations, respectively. A high recurrence of ice dams and ice jams is also observed on other rivers. 相似文献
5.
Abandoned rivers (large paleochannels and meanders) are common on river floodplains and low terraces on the East European and West Siberian plains. They are 10–15 times greater in size than the present-day river channels. The large paleochannels are dated back to 11–15 thousand radiocarbon years B.P. (the Late Glacial period). Based on the hydraulic and morphometric relationships for present-day rivers and the method of paleogeographic analogs, the surface runoff during the Late Glacial period was quantitatively reconstructed by the morphometric parameters of large paleochannels. The reconstructed surface runoff exceeded the present values by 1.4 times on the northern mega-slope of the East European Plain (the Northern Dvina, Mezen, and Pechora river basins), by 2.3 times on its southern mega-slope (the Volga, Don, and Dnepr basins), and twofold in West Siberia (the Ob basin). The large surface runoff volumes can be explained by the landscape and climate conditions, including the high coefficients of runoff (due to the permafrost), the increased proportion (and, conceivably, the amount) of snowfall, and, hence, the respective increased intensity of spring floods. The transformation of large Late-Glacial paleorivers due to climate warming at the beginning of the Holocene is a likely scenario of the surface runoff development within the present-day permafrost zone at the ongoing human-induced climate warming. A general decrease in surface runoff and its more uniform intra-annual distribution would result in the reduced size of rivers in the middle Siberia, Yakutia, and northeastern Russia. 相似文献
6.
The continuous increase in the emission of greenhouse gases has resulted in global warming, and substantial changes in the global climate are expected by the end of the current century. The reductions in mass, volume, area and length of glaciers on the global scale are considered as clear signals of a warmer climate. The increased rate of melting under a warmer climate has resulted in the retreating of glaciers. On the long‐term scale, greater melting of glaciers during the coming years could lead to the depletion of available water resources and influence water flows in rivers. It is also very likely that such changes have occurred in Himalayan glaciers, but might have gone unnoticed or not studied in detail. The water resources of the Himalayan region may also be highly vulnerable to such climate changes, because more than 50% of the water resources of India are located in the various tributaries of the Ganges, Indus and the Brahmaputra river system, which are highly dependent on snow and glacier runoff. In the present study, the snowmelt model SNOWMOD has been used to simulate the melt runoff from a highly glacierized small basin for the summer season. The model simulated the distribution and volume of runoff with reasonably good accuracy. Based on a 2‐year simulation, it is found that, on average, the contributions of glacier melt and rainfall in the total runoff are 87% and 13% respectively. The impact of climate change on the monthly distribution of runoff and total summer runoff has been studied with respect to plausible scenarios of temperature and rainfall, both individually and in combined scenarios. The analysis included six temperature scenarios ranging between 0·5 and 3 °C, and four rainfall scenarios (?10%, ?5%, 5%, 10%). The combined scenarios were generated using temperature and rainfall scenarios. The combined scenarios represented a combination of warmer and drier and a combination of warmer and wetter conditions in the study area. The results indicate that, for the study basin, runoff increased linearly with increase in temperature and rainfall. For a temperature rise of 2 °C, the increase in summer streamflow is computed to be about 28%. Changes in rainfall by ±10% resulted in corresponding changes in streamflow by ±3·5%. For the range of climatic scenarios considered, the changes in runoff are more sensitive to changes in temperature, compared with rainfall, which is likely due to the major contribution of melt water in runoff. Such studies are needed for proper assessment of available water resources under a changing climate in the Himalayan region. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(3)
Abstract Abstract The Shiyang River basin is a typical interior river basin that faces water shortage and environmental deterioration in the arid northwest of China. Due to its arid climate, limited water resources and some inappropriate water-related human activities, the area has developed serious loss of vegetation, and gradual soil salinization and desertification, which have greatly impeded the sustainable development of agriculture and life in this region. In this paper, the impacts of human activities on the water–soil environment in Shiyang River basin are analysed in terms of precipitation, runoff in branches of the river, inflow into lower reaches, water conveyance efficiency of the canal system and irrigation water use efficiency in the field, replenishment and exploitation of groundwater resources, soil salinization, vegetation cover and the speed of desertification. The results show that human activities and global climate change have no significant influence on the precipitation, but the total annual runoff in eight branch rivers showed a significant decrease over the years. The proportion of water use in the upper and middle reaches compared to the lower reach was increased from 1:0.57 in the 1960s, to 1:0.27 in the 1970s and 1:0.09 in the 1990s. A reduction of about 74% in the river inflow to the lower reaches and a 15-m drop in the groundwater table have occurred during the last four decades. Strategies for improving the water–soil environment of the basin, such as the protection of the water resources of the Qilian Mountains, sustainable use of water resources, maintenance of the balance between land and water resources, development of water-saving agriculture, diverting of water from other rivers and control of soil desertification, are proposed. The objective of this paper is to provide guidelines for reconstruction of the sustainable water management and development of agriculture in this region. 相似文献
8.
Proportions of the overland, delayed, and groundwater runoff are given for different phases of the hydrological regimes of rivers under different landscape–climate conditions in Russia. The concept of runoff hydrological regime is in agreement with the formation features of the annual and seasonal runoff on small watersheds under current climate conditions. The increase in winter runoff is due to the impulse discharge regime of soil water and groundwater, which receive additional recharge during frequent thaws and at weak freezing of the aeration zone. Variations in the values of runoff, total precipitation, and mean temperature were shown to be both synchronous and periodic. 相似文献
9.
Archaeomagnetic studies of materials from the Gorelyi Les and Ust-Khaita monuments (Eastern Siberia)
Archaeomagnetic studies of materials from archaeological monuments of the Irkutsk and Baikal regions provided new constraints on the geomagnetic intensity variation in Eastern Siberia for the interval from the 5th millennium BC through the 1st millennium AD. Material from the Gorelyi Les and Ust-Khaita multilayer archaeological monuments of the Irkutsk region is dated according to layer depths of deposits. Data on the geomagnetic intensity obtained from archaeomagnetic studies corroborate the validity of this method of dating. It is established that the average level of the geomagnetic intensity smoothly rose in the interval from the 5th millennium BC through the 1st millennium AD, with faster variations being superimposed on this trend. The pattern of the geomagnetic intensity variation is similar to those in other Eurasian regions. 相似文献
10.
A method of spatial calibration and verification of regional numerical physically based models of river runoff formation, incorporating runoff formation processes in the main river channel and its tributaries, was used to obtain a statistical estimate of the quality of river runoff calculation by conventional and alternative criteria focused on runoff reproduction in different phases of water regime and the characteristics of its variations. The analysis of the simulation quality of the annual and mean monthly river runoff (average runoff, standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation) at the near-mouth gages over the historical period with boundary conditions represented by data of global climate models showed the results to be satisfactory. This allows the proposed combination of climate and hydrological models to be used to study physically based regional variations of water regime under different physiographic and climatic conditions in the examined river basins with flood runoff regime (the Amur R.) and the predominant snowmelt runoff during spring flood (the Lena R.). 相似文献
11.
Shunsuke Tei Tomoki Morozumi Shin Nagai Shinya Takano Atsuko Sugimoto Ryo Shingubara Rong Fan Alexander Fedorov Tuyara Gavrilyeva Nikita Tananaev Trofim Maximov 《水文研究》2020,34(3):522-537
Flooding is one of the greatest disasters that produces strong effects on the ecosystem and livelihoods of the local population. Flood frequency is expected to increase globally making its risk assessment an urgent issue. In spring-summer 2017, an extreme flooding occurred in the Indigirka River lowland of Northeastern Siberia that inundated a large area. In this study, the extent and climatic drivers of the flooding were determined using the results of field observations, satellite images, and climate reanalysis dataset, and its possible effects on the ecosystem were discussed. In 2017, a significant lowland area of around 16,016 km2 was covered with water even in July, which was 5,217 km2 (around 4% of the total area) greater than the water-covered area in 2015 when usual hydrological condition in the area was observed. The hydrographic signature obtained for the Indigirka River water level in 2017 was unusual. Although the water level rose sharply at the end of May (which was typical for the Arctic region), it did not fall afterwards and even increased again to an annual daily maximum value in the middle of July. The climate reanalysis dataset obtained for the temporal–spatial variations of snow water equivalent, snowmelt, and runoff over the lowland revealed that a large amount of snowmelt runoff in June and July 2017 produced a large water-covered area and unusually high river water levels that lasted until summer. Snow depth from winter to spring was largest in 2017 over the period from 2009 to 2017, and the surface of the lower reach of the lowland was partially covered with snow even in the end of June due to the extreme snowfall that occurred in October 2016. Such unusual hydrological conditions waterlogged most trees over the lowland, which caused serious ecosystem devastation and changes in the material cycle. 相似文献
12.
Projection of surface water resources in the context of climate change in typical regions of China 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Climate change and its impact on hydrological processes are overarching issues that have brought challenges for sustainable water resources management. In this study, surface water resources in typical regions of China are projected in the context of climate change. A water balance model based on the Fu rational function equation is established to quantify future natural runoff. The model is calibrated using data from 13 hydrological stations in 10 first-class water resources zones of China. The future precipitation and temperature series come from the ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) climate dataset. Taking natural runoff for 1961–1990 as a baseline, the impacts of climate change on natural runoff are studied under three emissions scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Simulated results indicate that the arid and semi-arid region in the northern part of China is more sensitive to climate change compared to the humid and semi-humid region in the south. In the near future (2011–2050), surface water resources will decrease in most parts of China (except for the Liaozhong and Daojieba catchments), especially in the Haihe River Basin and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin. The decrement of surface water resources in the northern part of China is more than that in the southern part. For the periods 2011–2030 and 2031–2050, surface water resources are expected to decrease by 12–13% in the northern part of China, while those in the southern part will decrease by 7–10%.
EDITOR D. KoutsoyiannisASSOCIATE EDITOR R. Hirsch 相似文献
13.
S. G. Dobrovolski 《Water Resources》2014,41(6):728-737
A number of uncertainties of forecasts of changes in the annual runoff depths at global scale, obtained using information on results of integration of 21 IPCC climate models is studied. Following possible errors of these forecasts are calculated: errors of models; differences between main (IPCC) scenarios of emission of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and resultant changes of global temperatures; mistakes in estimates of average long-term observed values of the runoff depths for the “control” period. Global maps of a “significance index” of forecasted changes in the runoff depths (estimations of changes in the annual runoff depths divided by mean square root values of errors of these estimations) for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100 are presented. It is shown that the most significant global changes of the runoff depths (growth in the north of Eastern Siberia, of the Russian Far East, of North America, falling in the “Greater Mediterranean Region”) are predicted for the second quarter of 21st century. Further changes of the runoff amplify only in the Amazon basin (reduction, by 2075). Almost everywhere else (including almost all European territory of Russia, Western Siberia, south of Eastern Siberia and of the Far East) the significance of changes in the runoff depths during 21st century is negligible. 相似文献
14.
Siberian rivers are of global importance as they impact on the freshwater budget of the Arctic Ocean, which affects the Thermo-Haline circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean. Siberian rivers, in particular the tributaries to the larger rivers, are under-represented in the international river-regime databases. The runoff of three Russian rivers in the Central Siberian taiga (Kureyka, Karabula and Erba) is modelled to analyse the relative influence of climate. In addition three rivers (Rhine, Maas and Odra) in Western Europe are similarly assessed as a control. The results show that the role of precipitation and autocorrelation as factors in the formation of river runoff is stronger under oceanic climate conditions, increasing from the central regions of Northern Eurasia towards the Arctic Ocean in the North and the Atlantic in the West. At the same time the influence of summer temperatures is weakened. The formation of Northern Eurasian river runoff appears to be influenced by periodically thawing top horizons of permafrost soil. Time served as an indicator for land use change after inclusion of meteorological data in the models. Maas and Erba showed a significant influence of the time factor. For the Erba the onset of agricultural land use in the catchment coincides with a drop in runoff. A similar causal relationship is suggested for the Maas. Land use can change the formation of runoff, which in turn can be used as an environmental indicator for sustainable land use. 相似文献
15.
The rate of natural removal of 137Cs from water bodies in Eastern Fennoscandia is evaluated. The half-time T of water purification from global 137Cs in lake–river systems was ~6.5 years and that for river systems was 6.5–10 years. For the 15- and 20-year exposure of 137Cs in watershed soils, its annual input in rivers was 0.021–0.120 and 0.017–0.070% of its reserve. The period of May–December 1986 showed maximal export of 137Cs, i.e., 1.1% of its reserve. 137Cs export into rivers decreased in the region from north to south because of changes in landscape and climate conditions that affect 137Cs migration on watersheds. 相似文献
16.
Recent decades have seen a change in the runoff characteristics of the Suntar River basin in the mountainous, permafrost, hard-to-reach region of Eastern Siberia. This study aims to investigate and simulate runoff formation processes, including the factors driving recent changes in hydrological response of the Suntar River, based on short-term historical observations of a range of hydrological, climatological and landscape measurements conducted in 1957–1959. The hydrograph model is applied as it has the advantage of using observed physical properties of landscapes as its parameters. The developed parametrization of the goltsy landscape (rocky-talus) is verified by comparison of the results of simulations of variable states of snow and frozen ground with observations carried out in 1957–1959. Continuous simulations of streamflow on a daily time step are conducted for the period 1957–2012 in the Suntar River (area 7680 km2, altitude 828–2794 m) with mean and median values of Nash–Sutcliff criteria reaching 0.58 and 0.67, respectively. The results of simulations have shown that the largest component of runoff (about 70%) is produced in the high-altitude area which comprises only 44% of the Suntar River basin area. The simulated streamflow reproduces the patterns of recently observed changes, including the increase in low flows, suggesting that the increase in the proportion of liquid precipitation in autumn due to air temperature rise is an important factor in driving streamflow changes in the region. The data presented are unique for the vast mountainous parts of North-Eastern Eurasia which play an important role in the global climate system. The results indicate that parameterizing a hydrological model based on observations allows the model to be used in studying the response of river basins to climate change with greater confidence. 相似文献
17.
Based on hydrological and climatic data covering the period from 1961 to 2008, this paper studies the hydrological responses to climate change and to human activities in the Ebinur Lake Catchment. The results show that the annual runoff of three rivers in Ebinur Lake Catchment exhibited different change trends. Specifically, in Jinghe River and Kuytun River exhibited a slightly increasing trend, but an adverse trend in Bortala River, and the variation trend has been the most dramatic since the mid-1990s. The observed variation in the runoff was resulted from the elevated alpine precipitation, rather than rising temperature, and that precipitation is a major factor for runoff generation. The runoff CAR model proposed by this paper can be used to predict the annual runoff in three rivers, and demonstrated annual runoff in Bortala River and Jinghe River will display an increased trend, while a less decreasing trend in Kuytun River under the climate change scenarios of warm-humid variation. In addition, the exploitation of the area of cultivated land led to more water resources consumption, primarily for agriculture irrigation, is the cause of the persistently ecoenvironment degradation, which have reached in a critical state thus, a more pressing concern is the development a scientifically reasonable and administratively practical water resource management scheme. 相似文献
18.
Three stages were identified in the development of meandering rivers and the formation of floodplains with natural levees
in Northern Eurasia: the development of rivers with size larger than that of the modern ones; the development of rivers smaller
than the modern ones; and the development of rivers of the present-day morphodynamic type. Small oxbows of the second stage
are widespread in the floodplains of lowland rivers in Northern Eurasia. The largest amount of floodplain segments with such
oxbows can be seen in the forest zone, mostly in the coniferous forests of northeastern European Russia. The available radiocarbon
datings show that river channel were significantly decreasing in size and the steepness of meanders was increasing during
the Atlantic period of the Holocene. Data on changes in the size of river channels were used to evaluate the ratios between
paleo- and modern discharges and to construct a map of difference between runoff depths in the Holocene optimum and in the
present and assess changes in water runoff volume. The discharges in the basins of the Vyatka and middle Irtysh accounted
for as little as 40–50% of their current values. North, east, and west from those basins, the ratio of ancient and present-day
discharges increases. During the Holocene optimum, water runoff from the northern megaslope of the East European Plain was
∼180 km3/year, which is 30% less than the present runoff from the same drainage area. The annual runoff in Volga basin was ∼134 km3, which is almost half as large as the present value. The runoff in Don and Dnieper basins during the Holocene optimum was
40% less, and that in the Ob and Irtysh basin was 30% less than the present one. If we accept the hypothesis that the Holocene
optimum was a climate analogue of global anthropogenic warming of the mid-XXI century, the obtained estimates of the state
of water resources in Northern Eurasia acquire great prognostic importance. 相似文献
19.
Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff changes for the upper reaches of Weihe River 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Yuan Guo Zhijia Li Mark Amo-Boateng Peng Deng Pengnian Huang 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(2):333-346
In the wake of global and regional climate change and heightened human activities, runoff from some rivers in the world, especially in the arid and semi-arid regions, has significantly decreased. To reveal the varying characteristics leading to the change in runoff, detecting the influencing factors has been important in recent scientific discussions for water resources management in drainage basins. In this paper, an investigation into attributing the runoff response to climate change and human activities were conducted in two catchments (Wushan and Shetang), situated in the upper reaches of Weihe River in China. Prior to the identification of the factors that influenced runoff changes, the Mann–Kendall test was adopted to identify the trends in hydro-climate series. Also, change-points in the annual runoff were detected through Pettitt’s test and the precipitation–runoff double cumulative curve method. It is found that both catchments presented significant negative trend in annual runoff and the detected change-point in runoff occurs in 1993. Hence, the pre-change period and post-change period are defined before and after 1993, respectively. Then, runoff response to climate change and human activities was quantitatively evaluated on the basis of hydrologic sensitivity analysis and hydrologic model simulation. They provided similar estimates of the percentage change in mean annual runoff for the post-change period over the considered catchments. It is found that the decline in annual runoff over both catchments can be mainly attributed to the human activities, the reduction percentages due to human activities range from 59 to 77 %. The results of this study can provide a reference for the development, utilization and management of the regional water resources and ecological environment protection. 相似文献
20.
An analysis of the variation characteristics and evolutionary trends in the runoff of five rivers in the Poyang Lake Basin was conducted using the MK trend test, Morlet wavelet transforms, correlation analyses, and other methods. For 1956–2011, the inflow runoff displays small, statistically insignificant trends. However, for 2000–2011, significant downward trends are present. River runoff in the basin is significantly correlated with precipitation, while water intake and use is less influential; the most significant impact on river runoff is climate variability. To analyse the effects of water conservancy project scheduling and operation, we also compare the inflow and outflow runoff processes of typical large reservoirs before and after peak reservoir construction. The scheduling and operation of large reservoirs in the five rivers is known to play a supplementary role in dry season inflow runoff. The recent reduction in inflow runoff was mainly caused by basin precipitation; reasonable scheduling of water conservancy projects in the five rivers plays a positive role in safeguarding the water required by the dry season ecosystem in Poyang Lake. 相似文献