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1.
With well-determined hydraulic parameters in a hydrologic model, a traditional data assimilation method (such as the Kalman filter and its extensions) can be used to retrieve root zone soil moisture under uncertain initial state variables (e.g., initial soil moisture content) and good simulated results can be achieved. However, when the key soil hydraulic parameters are incorrect, the error is non-Gaussian, as the Kalman filter will produce a persistent bias in its predictions. In this paper, we propose a method coupling optimal parameters and extended Kalman filter data assimilation (OP-EKF) by combining optimal parameter estimation, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) assimilation method, a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm, and Richards’ equation. We examine the accuracy of estimating root zone soil moisture through the optimal parameters and extended Kalman filter data assimilation method by using observed in situ data at the Meiling experimental station, China. Results indicate that merely using EKF for assimilating surface soil moisture content to obtain soil moisture content in the root zone will produce a persistent bias between simulated and observed values. Using the OP-EKF assimilation method, estimates were clearly improved. If the soil profile is heterogeneous, soil moisture retrieval is accurate in the 0-50 cm soil profile and is inaccurate at 100 cm depth. Results indicate that the method is useful for retrieving root zone soil moisture over large areas and long timescales even when available soil moisture data are limited to the surface layer, and soil moisture content are uncertain and soil hydraulic parameters are incorrect.  相似文献   

2.
Modeling the spread of subsurface contaminants requires coupling a groundwater flow model with a contaminant transport model. Such coupling may provide accurate estimates of future subsurface hydrologic states if essential flow and contaminant data are assimilated in the model. Assuming perfect flow, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) can be used for direct data assimilation into the transport model. This is, however, a crude assumption as flow models can be subject to many sources of uncertainty. If the flow is not accurately simulated, contaminant predictions will likely be inaccurate even after successive Kalman updates of the contaminant model with the data. The problem is better handled when both flow and contaminant states are concurrently estimated using the traditional joint state augmentation approach. In this paper, we introduce a dual estimation strategy for data assimilation into a one-way coupled system by treating the flow and the contaminant models separately while intertwining a pair of distinct EnKFs, one for each model. The presented strategy only deals with the estimation of state variables but it can also be used for state and parameter estimation problems. This EnKF-based dual state-state estimation procedure presents a number of novel features: (i) it allows for simultaneous estimation of both flow and contaminant states in parallel; (ii) it provides a time consistent sequential updating scheme between the two models (first flow, then transport); (iii) it simplifies the implementation of the filtering system; and (iv) it yields more stable and accurate solutions than does the standard joint approach. We conducted synthetic numerical experiments based on various time stepping and observation strategies to evaluate the dual EnKF approach and compare its performance with the joint state augmentation approach. Experimental results show that on average, the dual strategy could reduce the estimation error of the coupled states by 15% compared with the joint approach. Furthermore, the dual estimation is proven to be very effective computationally, recovering accurate estimates at a reasonable cost.  相似文献   

3.
This paper presents a comparison of two reduced-order, sequential, and variational data assimilation methods: the singular evolutive extended Kalman filter (SEEK) and the reduced 4D-Var (R-4D-Var). A hybridization of the two, combining the variational framework and the sequential evolution of covariance matrices, is also preliminarily investigated and assessed in the same experimental conditions. The comparison is performed using the twin-experiment approach on a model of the tropical Pacific domain. The assimilated data are simulated temperature profiles at the locations of the TAO/TRITON array moorings. It is shown that, in a quasilinear regime, both methods produce similarly good results. However, the hybrid approach provides slightly better results and thus appears as potentially fruitful. In a more nonlinear regime, when tropical instability waves develop, the global nature of the variational approach helps control model dynamics better than the sequential approach of the SEEK filter. This aspect is probably enhanced by the context of the experiments in that there is a limited amount of assimilated data and no model error.  相似文献   

4.
Traditional variational data assimilation (VDA) with only one regularization parameter constraint cannot produce optimal error tuning for all observations. In this paper, a new data assimilation method of “four dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-Var) with multiple regularization parameters as a weak constraint (Tikh-4D-Var)” is proposed by imposing different regularization parameters for different observations. Meanwhile, a new multiple regularization parameters selection method, which is suitable for actual high-dimensional data assimilation system, is proposed based on the posterior information of 4D-Var system. Compared with the traditional single regularization parameter selection method, computation of the proposed multiple regularization parameters selection method is smaller. Based on WRF3.3.1 4D-Var data assimilation system, initialization and simulation of typhoon Chaba (2010) with the new Tikh-4D-Var method are compared with its counterpart 4D-Var to demonstrate the effectiveness of the new method. Results show that the new Tikh-4D-Var method can accelerate the convergence with less iterations. Moreover, compared with 4D-Var method, the typhoon track, intensity (including center surface pressure and maximum wind speed) and structure prediction are obviously improved with Tikh-4D-Var method for 72-h prediction. In addition, the accuracy of the observation error variances can be reflected by the multiple regularization parameters.  相似文献   

5.
This paper investigates the ability to retrieve the true soil moisture and temperature profiles by assimilating near-surface soil moisture and surface temperature data into a soil moisture and heat transfer model. The direct insertion and Kalman filter assimilation schemes have been used most frequently in assimilation studies, but no comparisons of these schemes have been made. This study investigates which of these approaches is able to retrieve the soil moisture and temperature profiles the fastest, over what depth soil moisture observations are required, and the effect of update interval on profile retrieval. These questions are addressed by a desktop study using synthetic data. The study shows that the Kalman filter assimilation scheme is superior to the direct insertion assimilation scheme, with retrieval of the soil moisture profile being achieved in 12 h as compared to 8 days or more, depending on observation depth, for hourly observations. It was also found that profile retrieval could not be realised for direct insertion of the surface node alone, and that observation depth does not have a significant effect on profile retrieval time for the Kalman filter. The observation interval was found to be unimportant for profile retrieval with the Kalman filter when the forcing data is accurate, whilst for direct insertion the continuous Dirichlet boundary condition was required for an increasingly longer period of time. It was also found that the Kalman filter assimilation scheme was less susceptible to unstable updates if volumetric soil moisture was modelled as the dependent state rather than matric head, because the volumetric soil moisture state is more linear in the forecasting model.  相似文献   

6.
Data assimilation is mainly concerned with the proper management of uncertainties. The main objective of the present work is to implement and analyze a data assimilation technique capable of assimilating bathymetric data into a coupled flow, wave, and morphodynamic model. For the case presented here, wave significant height, wave direction of incidence, and wave peak period are being optimized based on bathymetric data taken from a twin experiment. An adjoint-free variational scheme is used. In this approach, a linear reduced order model (ROM) is constructed as an approximation of the full model. The ROM is an autoregressive model of order 1 (AR1) that preserves the parametrization. Since the ROM is linear, the construction of its adjoint is straightforward, making the implementation of 4D variational data assimilation effortless. The scheme is able to update the morphodynamic model satisfactorily despite the fact that the model shows nonlinear behavior even for very small perturbations of all three parameters. The size and direction of the perturbations necessary for constructing the ROM have a significant impact on the performance of the technique.  相似文献   

7.
Estimating erroneous parameters in ensemble based snow data assimilation system has been given little attention in the literature. Little is known about the related methods’ effectiveness, performance, and sensitivity to other error sources such as model structural error. This research tackles these questions by running synthetic one-dimensional snow data assimilation with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), in which both state and parameter are simultaneously updated. The first part of the paper investigates the effectiveness of this parameter estimation approach in a perfect-model-structure scenario, and the second part focuses on its dependence on model structure error. The results from first part research demonstrate the advantages of this parameter estimation approach in reducing the systematic error of snow water equivalent (SWE) estimates, and retrieving the correct parameter value. The second part results indicate that, at least in our experiment, there is an evident dependence of parameter search convergence on model structural error. In the imperfect-model-structure run, the parameter search diverges, although it can simulate the state variable well. This result suggest that, good data assimilation performance in estimating state variables is not a sufficient indicator of reliable parameter retrieval in the presence of model structural error. The generality of this conclusion needs to be tested by data assimilation experiments with more complex structural error configurations.  相似文献   

8.
When hydrology model parameters are determined, a traditional data assimilation method (such as Kalman filter) and a hydrology model can estimate the root zone soil water with uncertain state variables (such as initial soil water content). The simulated result can be quite good. However, when a key soil hydraulic property, such as the saturated hydraulic conductivity, is overestimated or underestimated, the traditional soil water assimilation process will produce a persistent bias in its predictions. In this paper, we present and demonstrate a new multi‐scale assimilation method by combining the direct insertion assimilation method, particle swarm optimisation (PSO) algorithm and Richards equation. We study the possibility of estimating root zone soil water with a multi‐scale assimilation method by using observed in situ data from the Wudaogou experiment station, Huaihe River Basin, China. The results indicate there is a persistent bias between simulated and observed values when the direct insertion assimilation surface soil water content is used to estimate root zone soil water contents. Using a multi‐scale assimilation method (PSO algorithm and direct insertion assimilation) and an assumed bottom boundary condition, the results show some obvious improvement, but the root mean square error is still relatively large. When the bottom boundary condition is similar to the actual situation, the multi‐scale assimilation method can well represent the root zone soil water content. The results indicate that the method is useful in estimating root zone soil water when available soil water data are limited to the surface layer and the initial soil water content even when the soil hydraulic conductivities are uncertain. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

9.
Coupled assimilation for an intermediated coupled ENSO prediction model   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  
Fei Zheng  Jiang Zhu 《Ocean Dynamics》2010,60(5):1061-1073
The value of coupled assimilation is discussed using an intermediate coupled model in which the wind stress is the only atmospheric state which is slavery to model sea surface temperature (SST). In the coupled assimilation analysis, based on the coupled wind–ocean state covariance calculated from the coupled state ensemble, the ocean state is adjusted by assimilating wind data using the ensemble Kalman filter. As revealed by a series of assimilation experiments using simulated observations, the coupled assimilation of wind observations yields better results than the assimilation of SST observations. Specifically, the coupled assimilation of wind observations can help to improve the accuracy of the surface and subsurface currents because the correlation between the wind and ocean currents is stronger than that between SST and ocean currents in the equatorial Pacific. Thus, the coupled assimilation of wind data can decrease the initial condition errors in the surface/subsurface currents that can significantly contribute to SST forecast errors. The value of the coupled assimilation of wind observations is further demonstrated by comparing the prediction skills of three 12-year (1997–2008) hindcast experiments initialized by the ocean-only assimilation scheme that assimilates SST observations, the coupled assimilation scheme that assimilates wind observations, and a nudging scheme that nudges the observed wind stress data, respectively. The prediction skills of two assimilation schemes are significantly better than those of the nudging scheme. The prediction skills of assimilating wind observations are better than assimilating SST observations. Assimilating wind observations for the 2007/2008 La Niña event triggers better predictions, while assimilating SST observations fails to provide an early warning for that event.  相似文献   

10.
In this work, a dual-pass data assimilation scheme is developed to improve predictions of surface flux. Pass 1 of the dual-pass data assimilation scheme optimizes the model vegetation parameters at the weekly temporal scale, and Pass 2 optimizes the soil moisture at the daily temporal scale. Based on ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF), the land surface temperature(LST) data derived from the new generation of Chinese meteorology satellite(FY3A-VIRR) are assimilated into common land model(CoLM) for the first time. Six sites, Daman, Guantao, Arou, BJ, Miyun and Jiyuan, are selected for the data assimilation experiments and include different climatological conditions. The results are compared with those from a dataset generated by a multi-scale surface flux observation system that includes an automatic weather station(AWS), eddy covariance(EC) and large aperture scintillometer(LAS). The results indicate that the dual-pass data assimilation scheme is able to reduce model uncertainties and improve predictions of surface flux with the assimilation of FY3A-VIRR LST data.  相似文献   

11.
In order to improve the soil temperature profile predictions in land-surface models, an assimilation scheme using the extended Kalman filter is developed. This formulation is based on the discretized diffusion equation of heat transfer through the soil column. The scheme is designed to incorporate the knowledge of the uncertainties in both the model and the measurement. Model uncertainty is estimated by quantifying the model drift from observations when the model is initialized using the observed values. Furthermore, the initial error covariance has a significant influence on the performance of the assimilation scheme. It is shown that an inaccurate initial value for the error covariance can actually diminish the predictive capabilities of the model. When an appropriate initial error covariance is specified, using the top layer soil temperature observations in the assimilation scheme allows for improved predictive capabilities in lower layers. Observations at 30 min intervals have a significant effect on the model predictions in the lower layers. Assimilation of observations at 24 h intervals also has an effect on the lower layer predictive capability of the model, albeit more slowly than the 30 min assimilation scenario.  相似文献   

12.
To respond to the need for preventing offshore and coastal accidents, damage and flooding, a state-of-the-art coastal wave forecast system for the East Coast of Korea waters is being developed. Given that the quality of the input wind has been identified as the main factor influencing the quality of the wave results, the effectiveness of adjusting the wind fields by means of data assimilation using the ensemble Kalman filter technique has been explored. In this article the model setup, the data assimilation parameters and the validation of the predictions during stormy periods is described. The validation shows that the model is able to provide predictions of coastal waves fulfilling available benchmarks; especially, the data assimilation analysis and forecast predictions are judged to be of high quality.  相似文献   

13.
The Kalman filter is an efficient data assimilation tool to refine an estimate of a state variable using measured data and the variable's correlations in space and/or time. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) (Evensen 2004, 2009) is a Kalman filter variant that employs Monte Carlo analysis to define the correlations that help to refine the updated state. While use of EnKF in hydrology is somewhat limited, it has been successfully applied in other fields of engineering (e.g., oil reservoir modeling, weather forecasting). Here, EnKF is used to refine a simulated groundwater tetrachloroethylene (TCE) plume that underlies the Tooele Army Depot‐North (TEAD‐N) in Utah, based on observations of TCE in the aquifer. The resulting EnKF‐based assimilated plume is simulated forward in time to predict future plume migration. The correlations that underpin EnKF updating implicitly contain information about how the plume developed over time under the influence of complex site hydrology and variable source history, as they are predicated on multiple realizations of a well‐calibrated numerical groundwater flow and transport model. The EnKF methodology is compared to an ordinary kriging‐based assimilation method with respect to the accurate representation of plume concentrations in order to determine the relative efficacy of EnKF for water quality data assimilation.  相似文献   

14.
S. Zou  A. Parr 《Ground water》1995,33(2):319-325
The state-space estimation technique presented herein provides a method for obtaining optimal estimates of concentrations for two-dimensional plumes in ground water. The concentration of a plume was defined as the state variable. The technique uses the Kalman filter and involves combining two independent estimates of plume concentrations. One estimate is called the process modeling data and the other is called the “measurement” data. The process modeling data is obtained from a numerical model. The “measurement” data is obtained from field measurements; however, for illustration in this paper it was generated by a different numerical model than the one used to obtain the process modeling data. The state-space technique produces a distribution of contaminant concentrations that is more accurate than either of the distributions generated by the process modeling or the “measurement” data. An example is presented to show that the technique produces significant improvements in the prediction of plume concentration distributions.  相似文献   

15.
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is a commonly used real-time data assimilation algorithm in various disciplines. Here, the EnKF is applied, in a hydrogeological context, to condition log-conductivity realizations on log-conductivity and transient piezometric head data. In this case, the state vector is made up of log-conductivities and piezometric heads over a discretized aquifer domain, the forecast model is a groundwater flow numerical model, and the transient piezometric head data are sequentially assimilated to update the state vector. It is well known that all Kalman filters perform optimally for linear forecast models and a multiGaussian-distributed state vector. Of the different Kalman filters, the EnKF provides a robust solution to address non-linearities; however, it does not handle well non-Gaussian state-vector distributions. In the standard EnKF, as time passes and more state observations are assimilated, the distributions become closer to Gaussian, even if the initial ones are clearly non-Gaussian. A new method is proposed that transforms the original state vector into a new vector that is univariate Gaussian at all times. Back transforming the vector after the filtering ensures that the initial non-Gaussian univariate distributions of the state-vector components are preserved throughout. The proposed method is based in normal-score transforming each variable for all locations and all time steps. This new method, termed the normal-score ensemble Kalman filter (NS-EnKF), is demonstrated in a synthetic bimodal aquifer resembling a fluvial deposit, and it is compared to the standard EnKF. The proposed method performs better than the standard EnKF in all aspects analyzed (log-conductivity characterization and flow and transport predictions).  相似文献   

16.
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) has gained popularity in hydrological data assimilation problems. As a Monte Carlo based method, a sufficiently large ensemble size is usually required to guarantee the accuracy. As an alternative approach, the probabilistic collocation based Kalman filter (PCKF) employs the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) to represent and propagate the uncertainties in parameters and states. However, PCKF suffers from the so-called “curse of dimensionality”. Its computational cost increases drastically with the increasing number of parameters and system nonlinearity. Furthermore, PCKF may fail to provide accurate estimations due to the joint updating scheme for strongly nonlinear models. Motivated by recent developments in uncertainty quantification and EnKF, we propose a restart adaptive probabilistic collocation based Kalman filter (RAPCKF) for data assimilation in unsaturated flow problems. During the implementation of RAPCKF, the important parameters are identified and active PCE basis functions are adaptively selected at each assimilation step; the “restart” scheme is utilized to eliminate the inconsistency between updated model parameters and states variables. The performance of RAPCKF is systematically tested with numerical cases of unsaturated flow models. It is shown that the adaptive approach and restart scheme can significantly improve the performance of PCKF. Moreover, RAPCKF has been demonstrated to be more efficient than EnKF with the same computational cost.  相似文献   

17.
Estimation of ocean circulation is investigated via assimilation of satellite measurements of the dynamic ocean topography (DOT) into the global finite-element ocean model (FEOM). The DOT was obtained by means of a geodetic approach from carefully cross-calibrated multi-mission altimeter data and GRACE gravity fields. The spectral consistency was achieved by consistently filtering both, the sea surface and the geoid. The filter length is determined by the spatial resolution of the gravity field and corresponds to approximately 241 km half width for the GRACE-based gravity field model ITG-Grace03s.The assimilation of the geodetic DOT was performed by employing a local singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter in combination with the method of weighting of observations. It is shown that this approach leads to a successful assimilation technique that reduced the RMS difference between the model and the data from 16 cm to 5 cm during one year of assimilation. The ocean model returns an optimized mean dynamic ocean topography. The effects of assimilation on transport estimates across several hydrographic World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE) sections show improvements compared to the FEOM run without data assimilation. As a result of the assimilation, DOT estimates are available in the polar or coastal regions where the geodetic estimates from satellite data alone are not adequate. Furthermore, more realistic features of the ocean can be seen in these areas compared to those obtained using the filtered data fields.  相似文献   

18.
Data assimilation is an essential step for improving space weather forecasting by means of a weighted combination between observational data and data from a mathematical model. In the present work data assimilation methods based on Kalman filter (KF) and artificial neural networks are applied to a three-wave model of auroral radio emissions. A novel data assimilation method is presented, whereby a multilayer perceptron neural network is trained to emulate a KF for data assimilation by using cross-validation. The results obtained render support for the use of neural networks as an assimilation technique for space weather prediction.  相似文献   

19.
The Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is well known and widely used in land data assimilation for its high precision and simple operation. The land surface models used as the forecast operator in a land data assimilation system are usually designed to consider the model subgrid-heterogeneity and soil water thawing and freezing. To neglect their effects could lead to some errors in soil moisture assimilation. The dual EnKF method is employed in soil moisture data assimilation to build a soil moisture data as- similation framework based on the NCAR Community Land Model version 2.0 (CLM 2.0) in considera- tion of the effects of the model subgrid-heterogeneity and soil water thawing and freezing: Liquid volumetric soil moisture content in a given fraction is assimilated through the state filter process, while solid volumetric soil moisture content in the same fraction and solid/liquid volumetric soil moisture in the other fractions are optimized by the parameter filter. Preliminary experiments show that this dual EnKF-based assimilation framework can assimilate soil moisture more effectively and precisely than the usual EnKF-based assimilation framework without considering the model subgrid-scale heteroge- neity and soil water thawing and freezing. With the improvement of soil moisture simulation, the soil temperature-simulated precision can be also improved to some extent.  相似文献   

20.
Reactive contaminant transport models are used by hydrologists to simulate and study the migration and fate of industrial waste in subsurface aquifers. Accurate transport modeling of such waste requires clear understanding of the system’s parameters, such as sorption and biodegradation. In this study, we present an efficient sequential data assimilation scheme that computes accurate estimates of aquifer contamination and spatially variable sorption coefficients. This assimilation scheme is based on a hybrid formulation of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and optimal interpolation (OI) in which solute concentration measurements are assimilated via a recursive dual estimation of sorption coefficients and contaminant state variables. This hybrid EnKF-OI scheme is used to mitigate background covariance limitations due to ensemble under-sampling and neglected model errors. Numerical experiments are conducted with a two-dimensional synthetic aquifer in which cobalt-60, a radioactive contaminant, is leached in a saturated heterogeneous clayey sandstone zone. Assimilation experiments are investigated under different settings and sources of model and observational errors. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed hybrid EnKF-OI scheme successfully recovers both the contaminant and the sorption rate and reduces their uncertainties. Sensitivity analyses also suggest that the adaptive hybrid scheme remains effective with small ensembles, allowing to reduce the ensemble size by up to 80% with respect to the standard EnKF scheme.  相似文献   

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