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1.
Awareness of increasing water scarcity has driven efforts to model global water resources for improved insight into water resources infrastructure and management strategies. Most water resources models focus explicitly on water systems and represent socio-economic and environmental change as external drivers. In contrast, the system dynamics-based integrated assessment model employed here, ANEMI, incorporates dynamic representations of these systems, so that their broader changes affect and are affected by water resources systems through feedbacks. Sectors in ANEMI therefore include the global climate system, carbon cycle, economy, population, land use and agriculture, and novel versions of the hydrological cycle, global water use and water quality. Since the model focus is on their interconnections through explicit nonlinear feedbacks, simulations with ANEMI provide insight into the nature and structure of connections between water resources and socio-economic and environmental change. Of particular interest to water resources researchers and modelers will be the simulated effects of a new water stress definition that incorporates both water quality and water quantity effects into the measurement of water scarcity. Five simulation runs demonstrate the value of wastewater treatment and reuse programs and the feedback-effects of irrigated agriculture and greater consumption of animal products.  相似文献   

2.
The Selenga River is the main artery feeding Lake Baikal. It has a catchment of ~450000 km² in the boundary region between Northern Mongolia and Southern Siberia. Climate, land use and dynamic socioeconomic changes go along with rising water abstractions and contaminant loads originating from mining sites and urban wastewater. In the future, these pressures might have negative impacts on the ecosystems of Lake Baikal and the Selenga River Delta, which is an important wetland region in itself and forms the last geobiochemical barrier before the Selenga drains into Lake Baikal. The following study aims to assess current trends in hydrology and water quality in the Selenga-Baikal basin, identify their drivers and to set up models (WaterGAP3 framework and ECOMAG) for the prediction of future changes. Of particular relevance for hydrological and water quality changes in the recent past were climate and land use trends as well as contaminant influx from mining areas and urban settlements. In the near future, additional hydrological modifications due to the construction of dams and abstractions/water diversions from the Selenga’s Mongolian tributaries could lead to additional alterations.  相似文献   

3.
Humans have strongly impacted the global water cycle, not only water flows but also water storage. We have performed a first global-scale analysis of the impact of water withdrawals on water storage variations, using the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. This required estimation of fractions of total water withdrawals from groundwater, considering five water use sectors. According to our assessment, the source of 35% of the water withdrawn worldwide (4300 km3/year during 1998–2002) is groundwater. Groundwater contributes 42%, 36% and 27% of water used for irrigation, households and manufacturing, respectively, while we assume that only surface water is used for livestock and for cooling of thermal power plants. Consumptive water use was 1400 km3/year during 1998–2002. It is the sum of the net abstraction of 250 km3/year of groundwater (taking into account evapotranspiration and return flows of withdrawn surface water and groundwater) and the net abstraction of 1150 km3/year of surface water. Computed net abstractions indicate, for the first time at the global scale, where and when human water withdrawals decrease or increase groundwater or surface water storage. In regions with extensive surface water irrigation, such as Southern China, net abstractions from groundwater are negative, i.e. groundwater is recharged by irrigation. The opposite is true for areas dominated by groundwater irrigation, such as in the High Plains aquifer of the central USA, where net abstraction of surface water is negative because return flow of withdrawn groundwater recharges the surface water compartments. In intensively irrigated areas, the amplitude of seasonal total water storage variations is generally increased due to human water use; however, in some areas, it is decreased. For the High Plains aquifer and the whole Mississippi basin, modeled groundwater and total water storage variations were compared with estimates of groundwater storage variations based on groundwater table observations, and with estimates of total water storage variations from the GRACE satellites mission. Due to the difficulty in estimating area-averaged seasonal groundwater storage variations from point observations of groundwater levels, it is uncertain whether WaterGAP underestimates actual variations or not. We conclude that WaterGAP possibly overestimates water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer where impact of human water use on water storage is readily discernible based on WaterGAP calculations and groundwater observations. No final conclusion can be drawn regarding the possibility of monitoring water withdrawals in the High Plains aquifer using GRACE. For the less intensively irrigated Mississippi basin, observed and modeled seasonal groundwater storage reveals a discernible impact of water withdrawals in the basin, but this is not the case for total water storage such that water withdrawals at the scale of the whole Mississippi basin cannot be monitored by GRACE.  相似文献   

4.
Abstract

River runoff and the resulting water resources which provide the needs of mankind for fresh water are subject to variations in space and time mainly depending on the space and time variability of climate characteristics. Thus there are close interrelations between the problems of the provision of fresh water and the problems of both natural and anthropogenic changes in climate. Moreover, these interrelations are characterized by specific features both under natural conditions and during a period of man's intensive impact on water resources. The problem of these interrelations has acquired a particular scientific and practical importance during recent years in which climatologists have attempted to predict global anthropogenic changes in climate for the near future, changes unknown on our plant for millennia. The present paper has been prepared mainly on the basis of research results obtained at the State Hydrological Institute in Leningrad. It describes the global interrelations between climatic characteristics and water resources under natural conditions and in the case of intensive water resources development; up-to-date ideas on the anthropogenic changes of the global climate are given; the possible consequent effects on future water resources are analysed.  相似文献   

5.
Changes in monthly streamflow and the potential influences and feedbacks of agricultural activities are investigated. Significant decreases in streamflow are observed in northern China, including the Yellow, Huaihe and Haihe river basins, while in southern China streamflow increases significantly in the Yangtze, Pearl and South river basins. This spatial pattern of changes in streamflow indicates that the imbalance in water resources between northern (dry) and southern (wet) China has increased during past decades. On the one hand, available water resources are a controlling factor determining the expansion of irrigated land and the structure of crop plantation (i.e. rice, wheat, corn or bean); on the other hand, crop planting structure and effective irrigated areas are important determinants of changes in streamflow. The increasing effective irrigation and rice planting areas in northern China may increase water withdrawal from rivers, causing subsequent decreases in streamflow, while in southeastern China, decreasing effective irrigation areas enhance the increases in streamflow.  相似文献   

6.
Better quantification of continental water storage variations is expected to improve our understanding of water flows, including evapotranspiration, runoff and river discharge as well as human water abstractions. For the first time, total water storage (TWS) on the land area of the globe as computed by the global water model WaterGAP (Water Global Assessment and Prognosis) was compared to both gravity recovery and climate experiment (GRACE) and global positioning system (GPS) observations. The GRACE satellites sense the effect of TWS on the dynamic gravity field of the Earth. GPS reference points are displaced due to crustal deformation caused by time-varying TWS. Unfortunately, the worldwide coverage of the GPS tracking network is irregular, while GRACE provides global coverage albeit with low spatial resolution. Detrended TWS time series were analyzed by determining scaling factors for mean annual amplitude (f GRACE) and time series of monthly TWS (f GPS). Both GRACE and GPS indicate that WaterGAP underestimates seasonal variations of TWS on most of the land area of the globe. In addition, seasonal maximum TWS occurs 1 month earlier according to WaterGAP than according to GRACE on most land areas. While WaterGAP TWS is sensitive to the applied climate input data, none of the two data sets result in a clearly better fit to the observations. Due to the low number of GPS sites, GPS observations are less useful for validating global hydrological models than GRACE observations, but they serve to support the validity of GRACE TWS as observational target for hydrological modeling. For unknown reasons, WaterGAP appears to fit better to GPS than to GRACE. Both GPS and GRACE data, however, are rather uncertain due to a number of reasons, in particular in dry regions. It is not possible to benefit from either GPS or GRACE observations to monitor and quantify human water abstractions if only detrended (seasonal) TWS variations are considered. Regarding GRACE, this is mainly caused by the attenuation of the TWS differences between water abstraction variants due to the filtering required for GRACE TWS. Regarding GPS, station density is too low. Only if water abstractions lead to long-term changes in TWS by depletion or restoration of water storage in groundwater or large surface water bodies, GRACE may be used to support the quantification of human water abstractions.  相似文献   

7.
When a scarce water resource is distributed between different users by a Water Resource Management Authority (WRMA), the replenishment of this resource as well as the meeting of users’ demand is subject to considerable uncertainty. Cost optimization and risk management models can assist the WRMA in its decision about striking the balance between the level of target delivery to the users and the level of risk that this delivery will not be met. Addressing the problem as a multi-period dynamic network optimization, the proposed approach is also based on further developments in stochastic programming for scenario optimization. This approach tries to obtain a “robust” decision policy that minimizes the risk of wrong decisions when managing scarce water resources. In the paper we also illustrate two application examples for water resources management problems.  相似文献   

8.
ABSTRACT

Droughts have long impacted humans with adverse consequences, hindering the achievement of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. To reduce vulnerability, multiple ways of adaptation have been developed, most of which, historically, focused on “hard-path” implementation of infrastructure. However, since water consumption plays a major role in the supply–demand balance, “soft-path” solutions focusing on the control of water use have recently intensified. Furthermore, due to the dynamic interaction between humans and water, changes might occur over time, requiring adaptation measures to be continually reshaped. We assess the dynamic nature of human adaptation to droughts in the semi-arid Extended Jaguaribe Basin, Brazil. We explore the shift from hard, supply-oriented measures to soft governance, and its causes: natural and socio-economic processes not anticipated in the original water resources policy. The observed phenomenon and discussion of its causes help to build knowledge on human–water interactions that are applicable more generally.  相似文献   

9.
T. Estrela 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1154-1167
Abstract

Impacts on water resources produced by climate change can be exacerbated when occurring in regions already presenting low water resources levels and frequent droughts, and subject to imbalances between water demands and available resources. Within Europe, according to existing climate change scenarios, water resources will be severely affected in Spain. However, the detection of those effects is not simple, because the natural variability of the water cycle and the effects of water abstractions on flow discharges complicate the establishment of clear trends. Therefore, there is a need to improve the assessment of climate change impacts by using hydrological simulation models. This paper reviews water resources and their variability in Spain, the recent modelling studies on hydrological effects of climate change, expected impacts on water resources, the implications in river basins and the current policy actions.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Citation Estrela, T., Pérez-Martin, M.A., and Vargas, E., 2012. Impacts of climate change on water resources in Spain. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 57 (6), 1154–1167.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract

In many of the world’s river basins, the water resources are over-allocated and/or highly modified, access to good quality water is limited or competitive and aquatic ecosystems are degraded. The decline in aquatic ecosystems can impact on human well-being by reducing the ecosystem services provided by healthy rivers, wetlands and floodplains. Basin water resources management requires the determination of water allocation among competing stakeholders including the environment, social needs and economic development. Traditionally, this determination occurred on a volumetric basis to meet basin productivity goals. However, it is difficult to address environmental goals in such a framework, because environmental condition is rarely considered in productivity goals, and short-term variations in river flow may be the most important driver of aquatic ecosystem health. Manipulation of flows to achieve desired outcomes for public supply, food and energy has been implemented for many years. More recently, manipulating flows to achieve ecological outcomes has been proposed. However, the complexity of determining the required flow regimes and the interdependencies between stakeholder outcomes has restricted the implementation of environmental flows as a core component of Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM). We demonstrate through case studies of the Rhône and Thames river basins in Europe, the Colorado River basin in North America and the Murray-Darling basin in Australia the limitations of traditional environmental flow strategies in integrated water resources management. An alternative ecosystem approach can provide a framework for implementation of environmental flows in basin water resources management, as demonstrated by management of the Pangani River basin in Africa. An ecosystem approach in IWRM leads to management for agreed triple-bottom-line outcomes, rather than productivity or ecological outcomes alone. We recommend that environmental flow management should take on the principles of an ecosystem approach and form an integral part of IWRM.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis

Citation Overton, I.C., Smith, D.M., Dalton J., Barchiesi S., Acreman M.C., Stromberg, J.C., and Kirby, J.M., 2014. Implementing environmental flows in integrated water resources management and the ecosystem approach. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (3–4), 860–877.  相似文献   

11.
环天山地带是薪疆水资源相对丰富的地区,干旱缺水依然是最突出的问题,同时还存在水资源时空分布不均,利用率低下,水利工程落后以及水资源开发利用不合理等间题。在对环天山地带水资源状况以及开发利用分析的基础上,提出了建设节水型社会,合理开发利用水资源,实现水资源与社会、经济、环境的和谐是区域社会经济发展的必由之路。  相似文献   

12.
The conflict among water drainage, water supply and eco-environment protection is getting more and more serious due to the irrational drainage and exploitation of ground water resources in coal-accumulated basins of North China. Efficient solutions to the conflict are to maintain long-term dynamic balance between input and output of the ground water basins, and to try to improve resourcification of the mine water. All solutions must guarantee the eco-environment quality. This paper presents a new idea of optimum combination of water drainage, water supply and eco-environment protection so as to solve the problem of unstable mine water supply, which is caused by the changeable water drainage for the whole combination system. Both the management of hydraulic techniques and constraints in economy, society, ecology, environment, industrial structural adjustments and sustainable developments have been taken into account. Since the traditional and separate management of different departments of water drainage, water supply and eco-environment protection is broken up, these departments work together to avoid repeated geological survey and specific evaluation calculations so that large amount of national investment can be saved and precise calculation for the whole system can be obtained. In the light of the conflict of water drainage, water supply and eco-environment protection in a typical sector in Jiaozuo coal mine, a case study puts forward an optimum combination scheme, in which a maximum economic benefit objective is constrained by multiple factors. The scheme provides a very important scientific base for finding a sustainable development strategy.  相似文献   

13.
《Water Policy》2001,3(2):143-163
The scarcity of available water resources in the Middle East (ME) along with the occurrence of severe drought during the last two years has stimulated interest in minimizing regional water shortages by developing new and additional water using non-conventional options including large scale brackish and sea water desalination and water import projects. After a regional review is conducted of available water resources and uses, water demand projections, potential water development options, sustainable water demand management, and non-conventional water development options, it was concluded that (1) although most low-cost conventional resources in the region have already been developed, further potential exists, but marginal costs will increase rapidly, (2) the least cost solution for short and medium term water development for the ME is water conservation through water demand management practices, and (3) regional cooperation is required on the long-term to meet the future water needs through the development of new and additional water using non-conventional options.  相似文献   

14.
江西各主要城市都是临水系而建,地表水资源是城市集中供水的主要水源。但是,为了应对突发事件很有必要在城市及其周边规划和遴选应急地下水源地。该文在分析阐述了各主要城市水文地质条件和地下水资源特征后．根据应急水源地的遴选原则,在全省11个主要城市中,确定了29个应急地下水源地,其可采资源总量为74781．372×10^4m^3／a。  相似文献   

15.
The stable isotopes of hydrogen and oxygen (δ2H and δ18O, respectively) have been widely used to investigate tree water source partitioning. These tracers have shed new light on patterns of tree water use in time and space. However, there are several limiting factors to this methodology (e.g., the difficult assessment of isotope fractionation in trees, and the labor-intensity associated with the collection of significant sample sizes) and the use of isotopes alone has not been enough to provide a mechanistic understanding of source water partitioning. Here, we combine isotope data in xylem and soil water with measurements of tree's physiological information including tree water deficit (TWD), fine root distribution, and soil matric potential, to investigate the mechanism driving tree water source partitioning. We used a 2 m3 lysimeter with willow trees (Salix viminalis) planted within, to conduct a high spatial–temporal resolution experiment. TWD provided an integrated response of plant water status to water supply and demand. The combined isotopic and TWD measurement showed that short-term variation (within days) in source water partitioning is determined mainly by plant hydraulic response to changes in soil matric potential. We observed changes in the relationship between soil matric potential and TWD that are matched by shifts in source water partitioning. Our results show that tree water use is a dynamic process on the time scale of days. These findings demonstrate tree's plasticity to water supply over days can be identified with high-resolution measurements of plant water status. Our results further support that root distribution alone is not an indicator of water uptake dynamics. Overall, we show that combining physiological measurements with traditional isotope tracing can reveal mechanistic insights into plant responses to changing environmental conditions.  相似文献   

16.
生态需水是湖泊生态系统的重要指标,维持着湖泊生态系统的良性循环.以内蒙古中部半干旱湖泊岱海为研究对象,对湖泊动态生态需水进行分析.本研究在遥感和气象数据的基础上,获得1975-2020年长时间序列高精度水文要素数据,分析岱海水文要素时空演变规律;通过天然生态水深分析法、水深经验频率分析法和湖泊形态分析法分析岱海的水深随面积变化的关键水深;构建基于生态耗水规律的湖泊生态需水模型,计算自然状态下岱海生态需水动态变化范围.研究结果如下:岱海地区6-9月为丰水期,10月至次年5月为枯水期;45 a以来岱海水面面积呈显著下降趋势,近年来下降速率减缓;枯水期岱海适宜生态水深为8.72~9.92 m,丰水期为9.40~10.69 m,适宜生态需水量为5.62亿~7.71亿m3,适宜湖面面积为70.92~84.77 km2.本文构建了长时间序列气候水文数据库,确定岱海动态生态需水范围可以实现对湖泊生态健康的实时监测,为相关规划与管理提供科学依据及可操作性指导,从而为岱海湖泊治理提供理论参考.  相似文献   

17.
湖泊流域水资源承载能力动态预测与调控是维护湖泊生态安全、保障社会经济健康持续发展的重要基础和手段.本文以巢湖流域为研究对象,提出基于系统动力学的湖泊流域水资源承载力动态预测技术和试验优化调控方法.首先以县(市)为基本单元构建水资源承载力系统动力学模拟与动态预测模型;再从空间上将各县(市)耦合为流域系统整体模型,并通过敏感性分析筛选量质要素调控指标;最后采用正交试验设计确定流域水资源承载力优化调控方案.结果表明:由于流域内产业规模的扩大以及城镇化率的提升,20172050年巢湖流域水资源承载状态值整体呈恶化趋势,并于2030年以后将长期处于超载状态,通过对影响要素针对性优化调控后,20172050年流域水资源承载状态均达到临界或可载.研究表明本文提出的方法对于促进区域社会经济环境协调发展和改善流域水资源承载力具有较好的实际应用价值.  相似文献   

18.
《水文科学杂志》2013,58(6):1105-1120
Abstract

Under the European Union Water Framework Directive, Member States must put in place a river basin planning framework to determine what measures are necessary to maintain and improve the ecological status for all surface water bodies. The governmental organisations legally responsible for implementing the Directive in the UK have recognised that an appropriate river flow regime is fundamental to maintain a healthy river and, as a result, they need to regulate abstractions and effluent discharges and ensure sufficient water is released from impoundments. This paper reports on the process of producing environmental standards that define the maximum abstraction allowable from UK rivers, to leave sufficient flow to maintain a healthy river ecosystem. As there are currently insufficient data available to determine the relationships between river flow and ecological status empirically, expert knowledge was captured through a series of workshops at which leading UK freshwater scientists defined maximum levels of river flow regime alteration that would achieve ecological objectives for different river water body types. For the least ecologically sensitive rivers, maximum abstractions in the range 15–35% of the natural flow were proposed, depending on the flow magnitude and time of year. For the most sensitive rivers, the maximum abstraction proposed was in the range 7.5–25%. The knowledge was used by the responsible UK authorities to develop environmental standards. The authorities subsequently used the environmental standards to determine regulatory standards that could be implemented within practical constraints and current licensing policies.  相似文献   

19.
Two questionable features of many existing studies of capacity expansion planning problems in water resources are (1) the modelling of the expansion as a deterministic process, and (2) the lack of control over the incidence of system failure. System failure, in this presentation, is related to the occurrence of shortfalls in water supply. A sequential decision model is used as a general framework for the formulation of stochastic demand capacity expansion problems subject to reliability constraints designed to regulate the incidence of system failure. Various different types of constraint are investigated and each is incorporated into a dynamic programming solution procedure by means of Lagrangian theory. Computational examples illustrate the potential importance of using such reliability constraints in the analysis of capacity expansion problems.  相似文献   

20.
Connections between groundwater and surface water are well-established and remain the focus of significant ongoing research. Within the water management community, stream-aquifer interactions are widely acknowledged and often subject to regulation. Yet, the tools most commonly used by water managers often have limited physical hydrology and a resulting inability to represent feedbacks between elements of the physical system. This paper presents the development of a water allocation module (WAM) for an integrated hydrologic model, ParFlow. The module presented here is designed to maximize the satisfaction of demand subject to a system of priorities, preferences and constraints. Because ParFlow solves the groundwater and surface water systems simultaneously, the coupled management model can explicitly incorporate groundwater surface water interactions into management decisions. Proof of concept for the new module is demonstrated for a hypothetical water management scenario, utilizing moisture dependent irrigation, in a real world basin, the Little Washita.  相似文献   

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