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1.
The city of Catania (Italy) in the South-Eastern Sicily has been affected in past times by several destroying earthquakes with high values of estimated magnitude. The seismogenic area to the south of Volcano Etna, known as Iblean Area, is placed between the African and the Euro-Asiatic plates on the west of the Ibleo-Maltese escarpment, to the south of the Graben of the Sicilian channel and on the east of the overlapping front of Gela. Basing on the seismic history of Catania, the following earthquake scenarios have been considered: the “Val di Noto” earthquake of January 11, 1693 (with intensity X-XI on MCS scale, magnitude MW=7.41 and epicentral distance of about 13 km); the “Etna” earthquake of February 20, 1818 (with intensity IX on MCS scale, magnitude MW=6.23 and epicentral distance of about 10 km). The soil response analysis at the surface, in terms of time history and response spectra, has been obtained by 1-D equivalent linear models for about 1200 borings location available in the data-bank of the central area of Catania of about 50 km2, using deterministic design scenario earthquakes as input at the conventional bedrock.Seismic microzoning maps of the city of Catania have been obtained in terms of different peak ground acceleration at the surface and in terms of amplification ratios for given values of frequency. 相似文献
2.
Many authors have proposed that the study of seismicity rates is an appropriate technique for evaluating how close a seismic gap may be to rupture. We designed an algorithm for identification of patterns of significant seismic quiescence by using the definition of seismic quiescence proposed by Schreider (1990). This algorithm shows the area of quiescence where an earthquake of great magnitude may probably occur. We have applied our algorithm to the earthquake catalog on the Mexican Pacific coast located between 14 and 21 degrees of North latitude and 94 and 106 degrees West longitude; with depths less than or equal to 60 km and magnitude greater than or equal to 4.3, which occurred from January, 1965 until December, 2014. We have found significant patterns of seismic quietude before the earthquakes of Oaxaca (November 1978, Mw = 7.8), Petatlán (March 1979, Mw = 7.6), Michoacán (September 1985, Mw = 8.0, and Mw = 7.6) and Colima (October 1995, Mw = 8.0). Fortunately, in this century earthquakes of great magnitude have not occurred in Mexico. However, we have identified well-defined seismic quiescences in the Guerrero seismic-gap, which are apparently correlated with the occurrence of silent earthquakes in 2002, 2006 and 2010 recently discovered by GPS technology. 相似文献
3.
Ground motion intensity measures such as the peak ground acceleration (PGA) and the pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) at two sites due to the same seismic event are correlated. The spatial correlation needs to be considered when modeling ground-motion fields for seismic loss assessments, since it can have a significant influence on the statistical moments and probability distribution of aggregated seismic loss of a building portfolio.Empirical models of spatial correlation of ground motion intensity measures exist only for a few seismic regions in the world such as Japan, Taiwan and California, since for this purpose a dense observation network of earthquake ground motion is required. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response and Early Warning System (IERREWS) provides one such dense array with station spacing of typically 2 km in the urban area of Istanbul. Based on the records of eight small to moderate (Mw3.5–Mw5.1) events, which occurred since 2003 in the Marmara region, we establish a model of intra-event spatial correlation for PGA and PSA up to the natural period of 1.0 s.The results indicate that the correlation coefficients of PGA and short-period PSA decay rapidly with increasing interstation distance, resulting in correlation lengths of approximately 3–4 km, while correlation lengths at longer natural periods (above 0.5 s) exceed 6 km. Finally, we implement the correlation model in a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate economic loss in Istanbul's district Zeytinburnu due to a Mw7.2 scenario earthquake. 相似文献
4.
The paper focuses on the study of the dynamic response of a wind turbine installed close to seismic fault in an earthquake prone region of Greece. The investigation of the seismic behavior of the turbine is performed with response spectrum analysis using the elastic acceleration spectrum provided by the Greek National Aseismic Code for the project area, increased by 25% due to proximity to seismic fault, as recommended by the Code. Also, dynamic analysis is performed using the spectrum obtained from the assessment of seismic hazard at the site of the project (Local), for two typical cases of earthquakes of magnitudes Ms=5.8 and Ms=7.3 with epicentral distances of 1 km and 11 km from the test position, respectively. Finally, a time-history analysis is carried out using an artificial accelerogram obtained from the local spectrum envelope, for the site of the project, considering 1% damping ratio. The direct comparison of the response spectrum analysis results with the corresponding ones obtained from the dynamic and time-history analyses indicates that the implementation of the elastic acceleration spectrum is insufficient, although increased, and therefore it could be deduced that the current recommendation of the Greek National Aseismic Code to consider an increment of 25% on the elastic acceleration spectrum in regions close to seismic faults, requires review and further improvement. 相似文献
5.
It is understood that sample size could be an issue in earthquake statistical studies, causing the best estimate being too deterministic or less representative derived from limited statistics from observation. Like many Bayesian analyses and estimates, this study shows another novel application of the Bayesian approach to earthquake engineering, using prior data to help compensate the limited observation for the target problem to estimate the magnitude of the recurring Meishan earthquake in central Taiwan. With the Bayesian algorithms developed, the Bayesian analysis suggests that the next major event induced by the Meishan fault in central Taiwan should be in Mw 6.44±0.33, based on one magnitude observation of Mw 6.4 from the last event, along with the prior data including fault length of 14 km, rupture width of 15 km, rupture area of 216 km2, average displacement of 0.7 m, slip rate of 6 mm/yr, and five earthquake empirical models. 相似文献
6.
The problem of liquefaction of soil during seismic event is one of the important topics in the field of Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering. Liquefaction of soil is generally occurs in loose cohesionless saturated soil when pore water pressure increases suddenly due to induced ground motion and shear strength of soil decreases to zero and leading the structure situated above to undergo a large settlement, or failure. The failures took place due to liquefaction induced soil movement spread over few square km area continuously. Hence this is a problem where spatial variation involves and to represent this spatial variation Geographic Information System (GIS) is very useful in decision making about the area subjected to liquefaction. In this paper, GIS software GRAM++ is used to prepare soil liquefaction susceptibility map for entire Mumbai city in India by marking three zones viz. critically liquefiable soil, moderately liquefiable soil and non liquefiable soil. Extensive field borehole test data for groundwater depth, standard penetration test (SPT) blow counts, dry density, wet density and specific gravity, etc. have been collected from different parts of Mumbai. Simplified procedure of Youd et al. (2001) is used for calculation of factor of safety against soil liquefaction potential. Mumbai city and suburban area are formed by reclaiming lands around seven islands since 1865 till current date and still it is progressing in the area such as Navi Mumbai and beyond Borivali to Mira road suburban area. The factors of safety against soil liquefaction were determined for earthquake moment magnitude ranging from Mw = 5.0 to 7.5. It is found that the areas like Borivali, Malad, Dahisar, Bhandup may prone to liquefaction for earthquake moment magnitude ranging from Mw = 5.0 to 7.5. The liquefaction susceptibility maps were created by using GRAM++ by showing the areas where the factor of safety against the soil liquefaction is less than one. Proposed liquefaction susceptibility map of Mumbai city can be used by researchers for earthquake hazard analysis, for the preventive measures in disaster management, for urban planning and further development of Mumbai city and suburban area. 相似文献
7.
R/S analysis is used in this work to investigate the fractal correlations in terms of the Hurst exponent for the 1998–2011 seismicity data in Southern Mexico. This region is the most seismically active area in Mexico, where epicenters for severe earthquakes (e.g., September 19, 1985, Mw = 8.1) causing extensive damage in highly populated areas have been located. By only considering the seismic events that meet the Gutenberg–Ritcher law completeness requirement (b = 0.97, MGR = 3.6), we found time clustering for scales of about 100 and 135 events. In both cases, a cyclic behavior with dominant spectral components at about one cycle per year is revealed. It is argued that such a one-year cycle could be related to tidal effects in the Pacific coast. Interestingly, it is also found that high-magnitude events (Mw ≥ 6.0) are more likely to occur under increased interevent correlations with Hurst exponent values H > 0.65. This suggests that major earthquakes can occur when the tectonic stress accumulates in preferential directions. In contrast, the high-magnitude seismic risk is reduced when stresses are uniformly distributed in the tectonic shell. Such cointegration between correlations (i.e., Hurst exponent) and macroseismicity is confirmed for spatial variations of the Hurst exponent. In this way, we found that, using the Hurst exponent standpoint, the former presumed Michoacan and the Guerrero seismic gaps are the riskiest seismic zones. To test this empirical finding, two Southern Mexico local regions with large earthquakes were considered. These are the Atoyac de Alvarez, Guerrero (Mw = 6.3), and Union Hidalgo, Oaxaca (Mw = 6.6), events. In addition, we used the Loma Prieta, California, earthquake (October 17, 1989, Mw = 6.9) to show that the high-magnitude earthquakes in the San Andreas Fault region can also be linked to the increments of determinism (quantified in terms of the Hurst exponent) displayed by the stochastic dynamics of the interevent period time series. The results revealed that the analysis of seismic activity by means of R/S analysis could provide further insights in the advent of major earthquakes. 相似文献
8.
Maximum earthquake size varies considerably amongst the subduction zones. This has been interpreted as a variation in the seismic coupling, which is presumably related to the mechanical conditions of the fault zone. The rupture process of a great earthquake indicates the distribution of strong (asperities) and weak regions of the fault. The rupture process of three great earthquakes (1963 Kurile Islands, MW = 8.5; 1965 Rat Islands, MW = 8.7; 1964 Alaska, MW = 9.2) are studied by using WWSSN stations in the core shadow zone. Diffraction around the core attenuates the P-wave amplitudes such that on-scale long-period P-waves are recorded. There are striking differences between the seismograms of the great earthquakes; the Alaskan earthquake has the largest amplitude and a very long-period nature, while the Kurile Islands earthquake appears to be a sequence of magnitude 7.5 events.The source time functions are deconvolved from the observed records. The Kurile Islands rupture process is characterized by the breaking of asperities with a length scale of 40–60 km, and for the Alaskan earthquake the dominant length scale in the epicentral region is 140–200 km. The variation of length scale and MW suggests that larger asperities cause larger earthquakes. The source time function of the 1979 Colombia earthquake (MW = 8.3) is also deconvolved. This earthquake is characterized by a single asperity of length scale 100–120 km, which is consistent with the above pattern, as the Colombia subduction zone was previously ruptured by a great (MW = 8.8) earthquake in 1906.The main result is that maximum earthquake size is related to the asperity distribution on the fault. The subduction zones with the largest earthquakes have very large asperities (e.g. the Alaskan earthquake), while the zones with the smaller great earthquakes (e.g. Kurile Islands) have smaller scattered asperities. 相似文献
9.
10.
GPS data from Crustal Movement Observation Network of China (CMONOC) are used to derive far-field co-seismic displacements induced by the Mw 9.0 Tohoku Earthquake. Significant horizontal displacements about 30 mm, 10 mm, and 20 mm were caused by this large event in northeast China, north China, and on the Korean peninsula respectively. Vectors of relatively large horizontal displacements with dominant east components pointed to the epicenter of this earthquake. The east components show an exponential decay with the longitude, which is characteristic of the decay of the co-seismic horizontal displacements associated with earthquakes of thrust rupture. The exponential fit of the east components shows that the influence of the co-seismic displacements can be detected by GPS at a distance of about 3200 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. By considering the capability of the far field displacements for constraining the inversion of the fault slip model of the earthquake, we use spherically stratified Earth models to simulate the co-seismic displacements induced by this event. Using computations and comparisons, we discuss the effects of parameters of layered Earth models on the results of dislocation modeling. Comparisons of the modeled and observed displacements show that far field GPS observations are effective for constraining the fault slip model. The far field horizontal displacements observed by GPS are used to modify the slips and seismic moments of fault slip models. The result of this work is applicable as a reference for other researchers to study seismic source rupture and crustal deformation. 相似文献
11.
This study provides evidence for post-5 Ma shortening in the transition area between the Dinarides fold-and-thrust belt and the Pannonian Basin and reviews possible earthquake sources for the Banja Luka epicentral area (northern Bosnia and Herzegovina) where the strongest instrumentally recorded earthquake (ML 6.4) occurred on 27 October 1969. Geological, geomorphological and reflection seismic data provide evidence for a contractional reactivation of Late Palaeogene to Middle Miocene normal faults at slip rates below 0.1 mm/a. This reactivation postdates deposition of the youngest sediments in the Pannonian Basin of Pontian age (c. 5 Ma). Fault plane solutions for the main 1969 Banja Luka earthquake (ML 6.4) and its largest foreshock (ML 6.0) indicate reverse faulting along ESE–WNW-striking nodal planes and generally N–S trending pressure axes. The spatial distribution of epicentres and focal depths, analyses of the macroseismic field and fault-plane solutions for several smaller events suggest on-going shortening in the internal Dinarides. Seismic deformation of the upper crust is also associated with strike-slip faults, likely related to the NE–SW trending, sinistral Banja Luka fault. Possibly, this fault transfers contraction between adjacent segments of the Dinarides thrust system. The study area represents the seismically most active region of the Dinarides apart from the Adriatic Sea coast and the bend zone around Zagreb. We propose that on-going thrusting in the internal Dinarides thrust system takes up a portion of the current Adria–Europe convergence. 相似文献
12.
A. Abbassi A. Nasrabadi M. Tatar F. Yaminifard M.R. Abbassi D. Hatzfeld K. Priestley 《Journal of Geodynamics》2010,49(2):68-78
Inversion of local earthquake travel times and joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity measurements were used to derive a simple model for the velocity crustal structure beneath the southern edge of the Central Alborz (Iran), including the seismically active area around the megacity of Tehran. The P and S travel times from 115 well-located earthquakes recorded by a dense local seismic network, operated from June to November 2006, were inverted to determine a 1D velocity model of the upper crust. The limited range of earthquake depths (between 2 km and 26 km) prevents us determining any velocity interfaces deeper than 25 km. The velocity of the lower crust and the depth of the Moho were found by joint inversion of receiver functions and Rayleigh wave group velocity data. The resulting P-wave velocity model comprises an upper crust with 3 km and 4 km thick sedimentary layers with P wave velocities (Vp) of ～5.4 and ～5.8 km s?1, respectively, above 9 km and 8 km thick layers of upper crystalline crust (Vp ～6.1 and ～6.25 km s?1 respectively). The lower crystalline crust is ～34 km thick (Vp ～ 6.40 km s?1). The total crustal thickness beneath this part of the Central Alborz is 58 ± 2 km. 相似文献
13.
On February 27, 2010 an earthquake of magnitude Mw=8.8, with epicenter in Cobquecura, Maule region, hit the central part of Chile. After the earthquake, a tsunami occurred that caused heavy casualties and damage to buildings and infrastructure. In particular, 4.5% of the overpasses located in the affected region suffered some type of damage and 25 bridges and several pedestrian bridges collapsed. At that time, there were about a dozen bridges with seismic isolation bearings in Chile, two of which were instrumented with accelerometer networks: the Marga Marga Bridge, located in Viña del Mar, and an elevated section of the Metro Line 5 in Santiago, at approximately 300 km and 400 km from the epicenter, respectively. This paper analyzes the acceleration records obtained at these instrumented structures and studies the effect of the seismic isolation on their dynamic response. The beneficial effect of the isolation system, especially in the longitudinal direction, is apparent. In addition, some flaws in the collapsed bridges are described. 相似文献
14.
Kuo-En Ching Kaj M. Johnson Ruey-Juin Rau Ray Y. Chuang Long-Chen Kuo Pei-Ling Leu 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2011,301(1-2):78-86
We invert measurements of coseismic displacements from 139 continuously recorded GPS sites from the 2010, Jiashian, Taiwan earthquake to solve for fault geometry and slip distribution using an elastic uniform stress drop inversion. The earthquake occurred at a depth of ~ 23 km in an area between the Western Foothills fold-and-thrust belt and the crystalline high mountains of the Central Range, providing an opportunity to examine the deep fault structure under Taiwan. The inferred rupture plane is oblique to the prominent orientation of thrust faults and parallel to several previously recognized NW-striking transfer zones that appear to connect stepping thrusts. We find that a fault striking 318°–344° with dip of 26°–41° fits the observations well with oblique reverse-sinistral slip under a low stress drop of about 0.5 MPa. The derived geodetic moment of 2.92 × 1018 N-m is equivalent to a Mw = 6.24 earthquake. Coseismic slip is largely concentrated within a circular patch with a 10-km radius at the depth between 10 and 24 km and maximum slip of 190 mm. We suggest this earthquake ruptured the NW-striking Chishan transfer fault zone, which we interpret as a listric NE-dipping lateral ramp with oblique slip connecting stepping thrust faults (ramps). The inferred slip on the lateral ramp is considerably deeper than the 7–15 km deep detachment identified in previous studies of western Taiwan. We infer an active basal detachment under western Taiwan at a depth of at least ~ 20–23 km based on these inversion results. The earthquake may have nucleated at the base of the lateral ramp near the intersection with the basal detachment. Coulomb stress change calculations suggest that this earthquake moved several NE-striking active thrust faults in western Taiwan nearer to failure. 相似文献
15.
The strong earthquake (M = 7) that occurred in the Fucino basin (central Italy) on January 13, 1915 was followed by six earthquakes of M > 5.5 and several other shocks of M > 5 in the major seismic zones of the northern Apennines from 1916 to 1920. This seismicity pattern is consistent with the implications of the present tectonic setting in the study area, which suggests that strong decoupling earthquakes in the central Apennines cause a significant increase of tectonic load, and possibly of seismicity, in the northern Apennines. A numerical simulation, carried out by an elastic-viscous model, of the stress diffusion induced by the Fucino and successive largest earthquakes, shows that each of the above shocks occurred when the respective zone was reached by the highest values of the strain and strain rate perturbation triggered by the previous events. Furthermore, the computed strain regime at each earthquake site is consistent with the known faulting pattern. The results provide important insights into the physical mechanism that controls the interaction of seismic sources in the central and northern Apennines. 相似文献
16.
Earthquake parameters and spatial distribution of coseismic effects in Southern Siberia and Mongolia
In this work we review earthquakes that happened in Southern Siberia and Mongolia within the coordinates of 42°–62° N and 80°–124° E and first propose relationships between earthquake parameters (a surface-wave earthquake magnitude M s and an epicentral intensity(I 0) based on the MSK-64 scale) and maximal distances from an earthquake epicenter (R e max), hypocenter (R h max), and a seismogenic fault (R f max) to the localities of secondary coseismic effects. Special attention was paid to the study of these relationships for the effects of soil liquefaction. Hence, it was shown that secondary deformations from an earthquake were distributed in space away from an earthquake epicenter, than from an associating seismogenic fault. The effects of soil liquefaction are manifested by several times closer to a seismogenic fault, than all other effects, regardless of the type of tectonic movement in a seismic focus. Within the 40 km zone from an earthquake epicenter 44% of the known manifestations of liquefaction process occurred; within the 40 km zone from a seismogenic fault—90%. We propose the next relationship for effects of soil liquefaction: M s = 0.007 × R e max + 5.168 that increases the limits of the maximum epicentral distance at an earthquake magnitude of 5.2 ≤ M s ≤ 8.1 as compared to the corresponding relationships for different regions of the world. 相似文献
17.
Sebastian F.L. Watt David M. Pyle Tamsin A. Mather 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》2009,277(3-4):399-407
Seismic activity has been postulated as a trigger of volcanic eruption on a range of timescales, but demonstrating the occurrence of triggered eruptions on timescales beyond a few days has proven difficult using global datasets. Here, we use the historic earthquake and eruption records of Chile and the Andean southern volcanic zone to investigate eruption rates following large earthquakes. We show a significant increase in eruption rate following earthquakes of MW > 8, notably in 1906 and 1960, with similar occurrences further back in the record. Eruption rates are enhanced above background levels for ~ 12 months following the 1906 and 1960 earthquakes, with the onset of 3–4 eruptions estimated to have been seismically influenced in each instance. Eruption locations suggest that these effects occur from the near-field to distances of ~ 500 km or more beyond the limits of the earthquake rupture zone. This suggests that both dynamic and static stresses associated with large earthquakes are important in eruption-triggering processes and have the potential to initiate volcanic eruption in arc settings over timescales of several months. 相似文献
18.
On 6 April 2009 a Mw=6.1 earthquake produced severe destruction and damage over the historic center of L’Aquila City (central Italy), in which the accelerometer stations AQK and AQU recorded a large amount of near-fault ground motion data. This paper analyzes the recorded ground motions and compares the observed peak accelerations and the horizontal to vertical response spectral ratios with those revealed from numerical simulations. The finite element method is considered herein to perform dynamic modeling on the soil profile underlying the seismic station AQU. The subsurface model, which is based on the reviewed surveys that were carried out in previous studies, consists of 200–400 m of Quaternary sediments overlying a Meso-Cenozoic carbonate bedrock. The Martin-Finn-Seed's pore-water pressure model is used in the simulations. The horizontal to vertical response spectral ratio that is observed during the weak seismic events shows three predominant frequencies at about 14 Hz, 3 Hz and 0.6 Hz, which may be related to the computed seismic motion amplification occurring at the shallow colluvium, at the top and base of the fluvial-lacustrine sequence, respectively. During the 2009 L’Aquila main shock the predominant frequency of 14 Hz shifts to lower values probably due to a peculiar wave-field incidence angle. The predominant frequency of 3 Hz shifts to lower values when the earthquake magnitude increases, which may be associated to the progressive softening of soil due to the excess pore-water pressure generation that reaches a maximum value of about 350 kPa in the top of fluvial-lacustrine sequence. The computed vertical peak acceleration underestimates the experimental value and the horizontal to vertical peak acceleration ratio that is observed at station AQU decreases when the earthquake magnitude increases, which reveals amplification of the vertical component of ground motion probably due to near-source effects. 相似文献
19.
The modifications of some atmospheric physical properties prior to a high magnitude earthquake were debated in the frame of the Lithosphere Atmosphere Ionosphere Coupling (LAIC) model. In this work, among the variety of involved phenomena, the ionisation of air at the ionospheric levels triggered by the leaking of gases from the Earth’s crust was investigated through the analysis of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signals. In particular, the authors analysed a 5 year (2008–2012) long series of GNSS based ionospheric TEC to produce maps over an area surrounding the epicentre of the L’Aquila (Italy, Mw = 6.3) earthquake of April 6th, 2009. The series was used to detect and quantify amplitude and duration of episodes of ionospheric disturbances by a statistical approach and to discriminate local and global effects on the ionosphere comparing these series with TEC values provided by the analysis of GNSS data from international permanent trackers distributed over a wider region. The study found that during this time interval only three statistically meaningful episodes of ionospheric disturbances were observed. One of them, occurring during the night of 16th of March 2009, anticipated the main shock by 3 weeks and could be connected with the strong earthquake of 6th of April. The other two significant episodes were detected within periods that were not close to the main seismic events and are more likely due to various and global reasons. 相似文献
20.
Long-term seismic activity prior to the December 26, 2004, off the west coast of northern Sumatra, Indonesia, M W=9.0 earthquake was investigated using the Harvard CMT catalogue. It is observed that before this great earthquake, there exists an accelerating moment release (AMR) process with the temporal scale of a quarter century and the spatial scale of 1 500 km. Within this spatial range, the M W=9.0 event falls into the piece-wise power-law-like frequency-magnitude distribution. Therefore, in the perspective of the critical-point-like model of earthquake preparation, the failure to forecast/predict the approaching and/or the size of this earthquake is not due to the physically intrinsic unpredictability of earthquakes. 相似文献