共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 660 毫秒
1.
The paper discusses active and passive methods of reducing the expected oil outflow from collision and grounding accidents. Active measures refer to actions or decisions taken at the time of an accident, while passive measures refer to features built into the design of the ship. Except in cases of large tides, passive measures appear most efficient in reducing the oil spill rates from collision and grounding accidents. The measures discussed in this study include:
• • main hull design and tank arrangement;
• • structural resistance of hull; and
• • other features, like vacuum systems, piping systems for automatic redistribution of oil in case of pressure drop in tanks.
Only the influence of the main hull design and tank arrangement on the oil outflow has been analysed in detail. A probabilistic outflow model, which simulates damage cases in accordance with observed data from collision and grounding accidents, has been used for a parameter study of the oil spills from a double hull tanker of 280 000 DWT. This has established the optimum position of longitudinal bulkheads to minimize the outflow rates, the variation of the outflow volumes with tank length (number of oil tanks) and the effect of altering main particulars or hull slenderness on outflow rates. Further simplified models are used to assess how these variations in main hull design and tank arrangement will affect the steel weights and associated costs of the analysed designs. The results reveal that a considerable reduction of the pollution risk may be achieved by careful modification of main particulars and tank sizes compared to current design practice. 相似文献
2.
The paper describes a model, which estimates the risk levels of individual crude oil tankers. The intended use of the model, which is ready for trial implementation at The Norwegian Coastal Administrations new Vard? VTS (Vessel Traffic Service) centre, is to facilitate the comparison of ships and to support a risk based decision on which ships to focus attention on. For a VTS operator, tasked with monitoring hundreds of ships, this is a valuable decision support tool. The model answers the question, "Which ships are likely to produce an oil spill accident, and how much is it likely to spill?". 相似文献
3.
Malaysian coasts are subjected to various threats of petroleum pollution including routine and accidental oil spill from tankers, spillage of crude oils from inland and offshore oil fields, and run-off from land-based human activities. Due to its strategic location, the Straits of Malacca serves as a major shipping lane. This paper expands the utility of biomarker compounds, hopanes, in identifying the source of tar-balls stranded on Malaysian coasts. 20 tar-ball samples collected from the east and west coast were analyzed for hopanes and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Four of the 13 tar-ball samples collected from the west coast of Peninsular Malaysia were identified as the Middle East crude oil (MECO) based on their biomarker signatures, suggesting tanker-derived sources significantly contributing the petroleum pollution in the Straits of Malacca. The tar-balls found on the east coast seem to originate from the offshore oil platforms in the South China Sea. The presence of South East Asian crude oil (SEACO) tar-balls on the west coast carry several plausible explanations. Some of the tar-balls could have been transported via sea currents from the east coast. The tankers carrying SEACO to other countries could have accidentally spilt the oil as well. Furthermore, discharge of tank washings and ballast water from the tankers were suggested based on the abundance in higher molecular weight n-alkanes and the absence of unresolved complex mixture (UCM) in the tar-ball samples. The other possibilities are that the tar-balls may have been originated from the Sumatran oil fields and spillage of domestic oil from oil refineries in Port Dickson and Malacca. The results of PAHs analysis suggest that all the tar-ball samples have undergone various extent of weathering through evaporation, dissolution and photo-oxidation. 相似文献
4.
东南沿海水库下游地区基于动态模拟的洪涝风险评估 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
我国东南沿海地区大多为一些中小流域,这些流域上游多建有水库工程,下游则为人口稠密的平原区,流域调蓄能力小,汇流时间短.同时,随着近年来城镇化快速发展,洪涝风险不断加大.因此,迫切需要开展水库下游不同暴雨重现期下的洪涝风险评估研究,以便为防洪决策提供技术支撑.为此,本文利用遥感、GIS、水文水动力学模型等相关技术方法,建立洪涝动态模拟模型来评估洪涝危险性;采用层次分析法和因子叠加法,从洪涝危险性和洪涝易损性两方面开展洪涝风险综合评估分析.研究表明,通过多学科与多技术手段相结合方法,来模拟预测不同暴雨重现期洪水动态淹没过程,再结合相关社会经济属性,可以有效地评估研究区洪涝灾害的风险,从而为水库调度及流域防洪减灾提供有力支撑. 相似文献
5.
作为全局非线性优化的新方法之一的遗传算法,近年来已从生物工程流行到大地电磁测深资料解释中.然而,大地电磁反演问题具有不适定性,解的非唯一性.通过结合求解不适定问题的Tikhonov正则化方法,本文采用实数编码遗传算法求解大地电磁二维反演问题.此算法在构建目标函数时引入正则化的思想,利用遗传算法求解最优化问题.常规的基于局部线性化的最优化反演方法易使解陷入局部极小值,而且严重的依赖初始模型的选择.与传统线性化的迭代反演方法相比,实数编码遗传算法能够克服传统方法的不足且能获得更好的反演结果.通过对大地电磁测深理论模型进行计算,结果表明:该算法具有收敛速度快、解的精度高和避免出现早熟等优点,可用于大地电磁资料解释. 相似文献
6.
Produced water discharge accounts for the greater portion of wastes arising from offshore oil and gas production operations. Development and expansion of Canada’s offshore oil and gas reserves has led to concerns over the potential long-term impacts of produced water discharges to the ocean. To examine this emerging environmental issue at a regional scale, an integrated risk assessment approach was developed in this study based on the princeton ocean model (POM), a random walk (RW) and Monte Carlo simulation. The use of water quality standards arrayed in a Monte Carlo design in the developed approach has served to reflect uncertainties and quantify environmental risks associated with produced water discharge. The model was validated against field data from a platform operating off Canada’s east coast, demonstrating its usefulness in supporting effective management of future produced water discharge. 相似文献
7.
Regional finite‐difference models often have cell sizes that are too large to sufficiently model well‐stream interactions. Here, a steady‐state hybrid model is applied whereby the upper layer or layers of a coarse MODFLOW model are replaced by the analytic element model GFLOW, which represents surface waters and wells as line and point sinks. The two models are coupled by transferring cell‐by‐cell leakage obtained from the original MODFLOW model to the bottom of the GFLOW model. A real‐world test of the hybrid model approach is applied on a subdomain of an existing model of the Lake Michigan Basin. The original (coarse) MODFLOW model consists of six layers, the top four of which are aggregated into GFLOW as a single layer, while the bottom two layers remain part of MODFLOW in the hybrid model. The hybrid model and a refined “benchmark” MODFLOW model simulate similar baseflows. The hybrid and benchmark models also simulate similar baseflow reductions due to nearby pumping when the well is located within the layers represented by GFLOW. However, the benchmark model requires refinement of the model grid in the local area of interest, while the hybrid approach uses a gridless top layer and is thus unaffected by grid discretization errors. The hybrid approach is well suited to facilitate cost‐effective retrofitting of existing coarse grid MODFLOW models commonly used for regional studies because it leverages the strengths of both finite‐difference and analytic element methods for predictions in mildly heterogeneous systems that can be simulated with steady‐state conditions. 相似文献
8.
Nicholas Edgell 《Marine pollution bulletin》1994,29(6-12):361-367
On 5 January 1993 the tanker Braer grounded on the southern shore of the Shetland Islands. The vessel was carrying a cargo of about 84 500 t of light crude oil. The incident occurred during severe storms in a remote area of great ecological importance. Because of the bad weather it was not possible to salvage the vessel or any part of her bunkers and cargo. The circumstances which led to this accident are briefly reviewed and lessons that might be learned from this incident are suggested. It is argued that the only viable means of minimizing tanker incidents and providing compensation for those who suffer loss when they do occur is through an internationally adopted framework of rules that have regard to operational and commercial considerations as well as to environmental issues, and which can be enforced to a consistent standard throughout the world. The following lessons can be learnt from this incident: 1. the need for improved internationally agreed rules requiring early reporting of difficulties being experienced by laden tankers; 2. the need to arrest the decrease in the number of professional salvage companies; 3. the value of well planned and well rehearsed emergency response plans; 4. the need for better anchoring systems; and 5. the need for whatever action is taken to tbe appropriate to the circumstances of each particular incident. 相似文献
9.
This paper proposes a stochastic approach to model temperature dynamic and study related risk measures. The dynamic of temperatures can be modelled by a mean-reverting process such as an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck one. In this study, we estimate the parameters of this process thanks to daily observed suprema of temperatures, which are the only data gathered by some weather stations. The expression of the cumulative distribution function of the supremum is obtained thanks to the law of the hitting time. The parameters are estimated by a least square method quantiles based on this function. Theoretical results, including mixing property and consistency of model parameters estimation, are provided. The parameters estimation is assessed on simulated data and performed on real ones. Numerical illustrations are given for both data. This estimation will allow us to estimate risk measures, such as the probability of heat wave and the mean duration of an heat wave. 相似文献
10.
This paper deals with an explicit numerical integration method for real‐time pseudo dynamic tests. The proposed method, termed the MPC‐SSP method, is suited to use in real‐time pseudo dynamic tests as no iteration steps are involved in each step of computation. A procedure for implementing the proposed method in real‐time pseudo dynamic tests is described in the paper. A state‐space approach is employed in this study to formulate the equations of motion of the system, which is advantageous in real‐time pseudo dynamic testing of structures with active control devices since most structural control problems are formulated in state space. A stability and accuracy analysis of the proposed method was performed based on linear elastic systems. Owing to an extrapolation scheme employed to predict the system's future response, the MPC‐SSP method is conditionally stable. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the MPC‐SSP method, a series of numerical simulations were performed and the performance of the MPC‐SSP method was compared with other pseudo dynamic testing methods including Explicit Newmark, Central Difference, Operator Splitting, and OS‐SSP methods based on both linear and non‐linear single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
This paper is aimed at investigating whether there is ample support for the view that the acceptance criterion for evaluating measures for prevention of oil spills from tankers should be based on cost-effectiveness considerations. One such criterion can be reflected by the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS) whereas its target value is updated by elaborating the inherent uncertainties of oil spill costs and establishing a value for the criterion’s assurance factor. To this end, a value of $80,000/t is proposed as a sensible CATS criterion and the proposed value for the assurance factor F = 1.5 is supported by the retrieved Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Clubs’ Annual Reports. It is envisaged that this criterion would allow the conversion of direct and indirect costs into a non-market value for the optimal allocation of resources between the various parties investing in shipping. A review of previous cost estimation models on oil spills is presented and a probability distribution (log-normal) is fitted on the available oil spill cost data, where it should be made abundantly clear that the mean value of the distribution is used for deriving the updated CATS criterion value. However, the difference between the initial and the updated CATS criterion in the percentiles of the distribution is small. It is found through the current analysis that results are partly lower than the predicted values from the published estimation models. The costs are also found to depend on the type of accident, which is in agreement with the results of previous studies. Other proposals on acceptance criteria are reviewed and it is asserted that the CATS criterion can be considered as the best candidate. Evidence is provided that the CATS approach is practical and meaningful by including examples of successful applications in actual risk assessments. Finally, it is suggested that the criterion may be refined subject to more readily available cost data and experience gained from future decisions. 相似文献
12.
An economical alternative to conventional crudes, Canadian bitumen, harvested as a semi-liquid, is diluted with condensate to make it viable to transport by pipeline to coastal areas where it would be shipped by tankers to global markets. Not much is known about the fate of diluted bitumen (dilbit) when spilled at sea. For this purpose, we conducted dilbit (Access Western Blend; AWB and Cold Lake Blend; CLB) weathering studies for 13 days in a flume tank containing seawater. After six days of weathering, droplets detached from the AWB slick and were dense enough to sink in seawater. The density of CLB also increased, but at a slower rate compared to AWB, which was attributed to the high concentration of alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in it, which are more resistant to weathering. An empirical, Monod-type model was introduced and was found to closely simulate the increase in oil density with time. Such a model could be used within oil spill models. 相似文献
13.
A massive oil spill affected approximately 215 km of coastline as a result of the grounding and subsequent explosion of the supertanker Urquiola at the entrance to the harbour at La Coruña, Spain, on 12 May 1976. A total of 99–100 000 tons of Persian Gulf crude oil was lost, most of which burned, but an estimated 25–30 000 tons washed ashore. Over 2000 tons of dispersants were applied to the oil at sea. Land-based clean-up and control methods were largely inadequate to combat the spread of oil, and were ineffective at preventing large scale environmental damage. 相似文献
14.
15.
Patterns and Rates of Ground-Water Flow on Long Island, New York 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
Increased ground-water contamination from human activities on Long Island has prompted studies to define the pattern and rate of ground-water movement. A two-dimensional, fine-mesh, finite-element model consisting of 11,969 nodes and 22,880 elements was constructed to represent ground-water flow along a north-south section through central Long Island. The model represents average hydrologic conditions within a corridor approximately 15 miles wide. The model solves discrete approximations of both the potential and stream functions. The resulting flownet depicts flow paths and defines the vertical distribution of flow within the section. Ground-water flow rates decrease with depth. Sixty-two percent of the water flows no deeper than the upper glacial (water-table) aquifer, 38 percent enters the underlying Magothy aquifer, and only 3.1 percent enters the Lloyd aquifer. The limiting streamlines for flow to the Magothy and Lloyd aquifers indicate that aquifer recharge areas are narrow east-west bands through the center of the island. The recharge area of the Magothy aquifer is only 5.4 miles wide; that of the Lloyd aquifer is less than 0.5 miles. The distribution of ground-water traveltime and a flownet are calculated from model results; both are useful in the investigation of contaminant transport or the chemical evolution of ground water within the flow system. A major discontinuity in traveltime occurs across the streamline which separates the flow subsystems of the two confined aquifers. Water that reaches the Lloyd aquifer attains traveltimes as high as 10,000 years, whereas water that has not penetrated deeper than the Magothy aquifer attains traveltimes of only 2,000 years. The finite-element approach used in this study is particularly suited to ground-water systems that have complex hydrostratigraphy and cross-sectional symmetry. 相似文献
16.
Application of random sets to model uncertainties of natural entities extracted from remote sensing images 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Xi Zhao Alfred Stein Xiaoling Chen 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(5):713-723
Remotely sensed images as a major data source to observe the earth, have been extensively integrated into spatial-temporal
analysis in environmental research. Information on spatial distribution and spatial-temporal dynamic of natural entities recorded
by series of images, however, usually bears various kinds of uncertainties. To deepen our insight into the uncertainties that
are inherent in these observations of natural phenomena from images, a general data modeling methodology is developed to embrace
different kinds of uncertainties. The aim of this paper is to propose a random set method for uncertainty modeling of spatial
objects extracted from images in environmental study. Basic concepts of random set theory are introduced and primary random
spatial data types are defined based on them. The method has been applied to dynamic wetland monitoring in the Poyang Lake
national nature reserve in China. Four Landsat images have been used to monitor grassland and vegetation patches. Their broad
gradual boundaries are represented by random sets, and their statistical mean and median are estimated. Random sets are well
suited to estimate these boundaries. We conclude that our method based on random set theory has a potential to serve as a
general framework in uncertainty modeling and is applicable in a spatial environmental analysis. 相似文献
17.
A unified approach to environmental systems modeling 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
P. C. Young Marco Ratto 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2009,23(7):1037-1057
The paper considers the differences between hypothetico-deductive and inductive modeling: between modelers who put their primary
trust in their scientific intuition about the nature of an environmental model and tend to produce quite complex computer
simulation models; and those who prefer to rely on the analysis of observational data to identify the simplest form of model that can represent these data. The tension that sometimes arises because of the different philosophical outlooks
of these two modeling groups can be harmful because it tends to fractionate the effort that goes into the investigation of
important environmental problems, such as global warming. In an attempt to improve this situation, the paper will outline
a new Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to modeling that tries to meld together the best aspects of these two modeling philosophies in order to develop
a unified approach that combines the hypothetico-deductive virtues of good scientific intuition and simulation modeling with
the pragmatism of inductive data-based modeling, where more objective inference from data is the primary driving force. In
particular, it demonstrates the feasibility of a new method for complex simulation model emulation, in which the methodological
tools of DBM modeling are used to develop a reduced dynamic order model that represents the ‘dominant modes’ of the complex
simulation model. In this form, the ‘dynamic emulation’ model can be compared with the DBM model obtained directly from the
analysis of real data and any tensions between the two modeling approaches may be relaxed to produce models that suit multiple
modeling objectives. 相似文献
18.
E.M. Levy 《Marine pollution bulletin》1980,11(2):51-56
Chemical analyses of the oils on dead or moribund seabirds from Atlantic Canada during the winter of 1976–1977 indicated that some of the birds were contaminated with oil spilled by the Argo Merchant grounding, some by oil probably from the Grand Zenith sinking, and still others by oil from various small local spills of unknown origin. These victims demonstrated that an extremely minute oiling may lead to the death of a seabird when the effects of the oil are synergistically combined with the stresses imposed by severe environmental conditions. This may intensify the impact of oil in the Arctic and thereby have a profound effect on seabird populations. 相似文献
19.
The environmental threat from oil spills remains significant across the globe and particularly in regions of high oil production and transport such as the Gulf. The ultimate damage caused can be limited by mitigation actions that responders deploy. The responsible and appropriate use of oil spill treatment products (e.g. dispersants, sorbents etc.) can offer response options that can result in substantial net environmental benefit. However, the approval and choice of what products to use needs careful consideration. The United Kingdom has had in place a statutory approval scheme for oil spill treatment products for 30 years. It is based on measures of efficiency and environmental acceptability. Two toxicity tests form an integral part of the assessment, the Sea test and the Rocky Shore test, and work on the premise that approved products will not make the situation significantly worse when added to spilled oil. This paper outlines the UK approach and how its rationale might be applied to the approval of products specific for the Gulf region. Issues such as species choice, higher temperatures and salinity and regional environmental conditions are considered. 相似文献
20.
Risk measures for events with a stochastic duration: an application to drought analysis 总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0
Ana C. Cebrián Jesús Abaurrea 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2012,26(7):971-981
Droughts, as many climatic and environmental phenomena, are events with a random duration. In the monitoring and risk management of this type of phenomena, it is important the development of measures of the risk that an ongoing event ends. This work develops a risk measure conditional on the current state of the event, that can be easily updated in real time. The measure is based on the hazard function of the duration of an event, that is modeled as a parametric function of covariates describing the current state of the process. The use of (time-dependent) internal covariates is often required to describe that state, and maximum likelihood methods cannot be used to estimate the model. Therefore, an approach based on partial likelihood functions that permit the inclusion of both external and internal covariates is suggested. This approach is very general but it has the drawback of requiring some programming to be implemented. However, it is proved that for durations with a geometric distribution, an equivalent and easily implemented approach based on generalized linear models can be used to estimate the hazard function. This methodology is applied to develop a risk measure in drought analysis. The approach is exemplified using the drought series from a Spanish location (Huesca) and internal covariates derived from the rainfall series. The whole modeling process is thoroughly described, including the covariate selection procedure and some new validation tools. 相似文献