共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
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Wide-azimuth seismic data can be used to derive anisotropic parameters on the subsurface by observing variation in subsurface seismic response along different azimuths. Layer-based high-resolution estimates of components of the subsurface anisotropic elastic tensor can be reconstructed by using wide-azimuth P-wave data by combining the kinematic information derived from anisotropic velocity analysis with dynamic information obtained from amplitude versus angle and azimuth analysis of wide-azimuth seismic data. Interval P-impedance, S-impedance and anisotropic parameters associated with anisotropic fracture media are being reconstructed using linearized analysis assuming horizontal transverse anisotropy symmetry. In this paper it is shown how additional assumptions, such as the rock model, can be used to reduce the degrees of freedom in the estimation problem and recover all five anisotropic parameters. Because the use of a rock model is needed, the derived elastic parameters are consistent with the rock model and are used to infer fractured rock properties using stochastic rock physics inversion. The inversion is based on stochastic rock physics modelling and maximum a posteriori estimate of both porosity and crack density parameters associated with the observed elastic parameters derived from both velocity and amplitude versus angle and azimuth analysis. While the focus of this study is on the use of P-wave reflection data, we also show how additional information such as shear wave splitting and/or anisotropic well log data can reduce the assumptions needed to derive elastic parameter and rock properties. 相似文献
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In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model. 相似文献
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T. N. Kaseke M. E. Thompson 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》1997,11(1):1-16
Abstract: Linear continuous time stochastic Nash cascade conceptual models for runoff are developed. The runoff is modeled
as a simple system of linear stochastic differential equations driven by white Gaussian and marked point process noises. In
the case of d reservoirs, the outputs of these reservoirs form a d dimensional vector Markov process, of which only the dth
coordinate process is observed, usually at a discrete sample of time points. The dth coordinate process is not Markovian.
Thus runoff is a partially observed Markov process if it is modeled using the stochastic Nash cascade model. We consider how
to estimate the parameters in such models. In principle, maximum likelihood estimation for the complete process parameters
can be carried out directly or through some form of the EM (estimation and maximization) algorithm or variation thereof, applied
to the observed process data. In this research we consider a direct approximate likelihood approach and a filtering approach
to an algorithm of EM type, as developed in Thompson and Kaseke (1994). These two methods are applied to some real life runoff
data from a catchment in Wales, England. We also consider a special case of the martingale estimating function approach on
the runoff model in the presence of rainfall. Finally, some simulations of the runoff process are given based on the estimated
parameters. 相似文献
5.
Elastic wave inverse scattering theory plays an important role in parameters estimation of heterogeneous media. Combining inverse scattering theory, perturbation theory and stationary phase approximation, we derive the P-wave seismic scattering coefficient equation in terms of fluid factor, shear modulus and density of background homogeneous media and perturbation media. With this equation as forward solver, a pre-stack seismic Bayesian inversion method is proposed to estimate the fluid factor of heterogeneous media. In this method, Cauchy distribution is utilized to the ratios of fluid factors, shear moduli and densities of perturbation media and background homogeneous media, respectively. Gaussian distribution is utilized to the likelihood function. The introduction of constraints from initial smooth models enhances the stability of the estimation of model parameters. Model test and real data example demonstrate that the proposed method is able to estimate the fluid factor of heterogeneous media from pre-stack seismic data directly and reasonably. 相似文献
6.
E. Roldán M. Gómez M. R. Pino J. Pórtoles C. Linares Julio Díaz 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2016,30(3):831-839
Different epidemiological studies have shown that high temperatures are directly related to mortality, furthermore many studies on the effects of climate change on future mortality are being conducted. The objective of this study is to estimate the effect of extreme hot temperatures on daily mortality in Zaragoza (Spain) from 2014 to 2021, utilising various climate-change scenarios. The relationship between temperature and mortality is defined by the concepts of heat wave, threshold temperature and the relative risk of daily deaths according to extreme temperatures in 1987–2006 period. The effect on future mortality is projected by estimating deaths attributable to extreme temperatures in 2014–2021. This estimation was calculated utilising exposure–response functions for three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) from the ECHAM5 general circulation model after applying a statistical downscaling technique. Because this study considers the effect of rising temperatures from a health perspective, minimising uncertainty was added to the numerical values obtained from the projected future relation between temperature and mortality. The results shows that expected mortality in Zaragoza will increase by 0.4 % for the period 2014–2021, an excess that can be directly attributed to extreme temperatures. This effect is expected to increase in the 2040s and 2050s until the end of the twenty first century because of a predicted increase in temperatures over this period, with special emphasis on the need to continue studying this line of inquiry and local studies as which arises. Finally, this study will luckily be used to create prevention plans for minimising the effect on health of the high temperatures. 相似文献
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The travel time and amplitude of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) waves are closely related to medium parameters such as water content, porosity, and dielectric permittivity. However, conventional estimation methods, which are mostly based on wave velocity, are not suitable for real complex media because of limited resolution. Impedance inversion uses the reflection coefficient of radar waves to directly calculate GPR impedance and other parameters of subsurface media. We construct a 3D multiscale stochastic medium model and use the mixed Gaussian and exponential autocorrelation function to describe the distribution of parameters in real subsurface media. We introduce an elliptical Gaussian function to describe local random anomalies. The tapering function is also introduced to reduce calculation errors caused by the numerical simulation of discrete grids. We derive the impedance inversion workflow and test the calculation precision in complex media. Finally, we use impedance inversion to process GPR field data in a polluted site in Mongolia. The inversion results were constrained using borehole data and validated by resistivity data. 相似文献
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通过超声-时间动态测试方法系统地分析了煤系沉积岩石纵波和横波速度，计算了煤系岩石动弹性力学参数，同步测试了煤系岩石的静态力学参数，建立了煤系沉积岩石动弹性力学参数与静弹性力学参数之间和煤系岩石物理力学参数与其声波速度之间的定性定量关系.研究结果表明，煤系岩石的动弹性模量与岩石的纵波或横波速度具有很好的正相关关系，而与泊松比不具有这种正相关关系.煤系岩石的动弹性模量要大于其静弹性模量，而动泊松比要小于其静泊松比，它们之间呈线性相关关系.煤系岩石密度、单轴抗压和抗拉强度与其纵波或横波速度之间也呈正相关关系，它们分别服从二次函数、指数函数和线性函数分布. 相似文献
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Mohammad Hadi Moeini Amir Etemad-Shahidi Vahid Chegini Iraj Rahmani 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(5):785-797
The main goal of this study is to develop an efficient approach for the assimilation of the hindcasted wave parameters in
the Persian Gulf. Hence, the third generation SWAN model was employed for wave modeling forced by the 6-h ECMWF wind data
with a resolution of 0.5°. In situ wave measurements at two stations were utilized to evaluate the assimilation approaches.
It was found that since the model errors are not the same for wave height and period, adaptation of model parameter does not
result in simultaneous and comprehensive improvement of them. Therefore, an approach based on the error prediction and updating
of output variables was employed to modify wave height and period. In this approach, artificial neural networks (ANNs) were
used to estimate the deviations between the simulated and measured wave parameters. The results showed that updating of output
variables leads to significant improvement in a wide range of the predicted wave characteristics. It was revealed that the
best input parameters for error prediction networks are mean wind speed, mean wind direction, wind duration, and the wave
parameters. In addition, combination of the ANN estimated error with numerically modeled wave parameters leads to further
improvement in the predicted wave parameters in contrast to direct estimation of the parameters by ANN. 相似文献
10.
APPLICATION AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SHEAR WAVE VELOCITY AND DEPTH OF SOIL-LAYERS 
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下载免费PDF全文 The shear wave velocity is one of the important parameters in seismic engineering.The common mathematical models of relationship between shear wave velocity and depth of soil-layers are linear function model,quadratic function model,power function model,cubic function model,and quartic function model.It is generally believed that the regression formulae based on aforementioned mathematical models are mainly used for preliminary estimation of the local shear wave velocity.In order to increase the value of test data of wave speed in boreholes,the calculation formulae for the thickness of ground cover layer are derived based on the aforementioned mathematical models and their fitting parameters.The calculation formulae for the mean shear wave velocity of soil-layers are derived by integral mean value theorem.Accordingly,the calculation formulae for the equivalent shear wave velocity of soil-layers are derived.The calculation formulae for the depth of reflective waves in time-depth conversion of the reflection seismic exploration are derived.Through the statistical analysis of test data of shear wave velocity of soil layers in Changyuan County,Henan Province,regression formulae and their fitting parameters of aforementioned mathematical models are obtained.The results show that in the determination of the quality of these regression formulae and their fitting parameters,the adjusted R-square,root mean square error and residual error,the matching on the statistical range between the geometry of function of mathematical models used and the scattergram of the measured data,the application purpose and the simplicity of the regression formulae should be considered.With the aforementioned new formulae,the results show that the calculated values of equivalent shear wave velocity of soil-layers and thickness of ground cover layer meet the engineering needs.The steps for statistics and applications of the relationship between shear wave velocity and depth of soil-layers for a new area are as follows:(1) Analyze the relevant data about the site such as the drilling and wave speed test data,etc.and divide the site into seismic engineering geological units;(2) In a single seismic engineering geological unit,make statistical analysis of the data of borehole wave speed test,comprehensively identify and select mathematical models and their fitting parameters of the relationship between shear wave velocity and depth of soil-layers;(3) Substitute the selected fitting parameters into the formulae,based on their mathematical models for the thickness of ground cover layer,or the equivalent shear wave velocity of soil-layers,or the depth of reflective wave,then the thickness of ground covering layer,equivalent shear wave velocity,and depth of reflective wave are obtained. 相似文献
11.
再论MDCB地震监测仪的映震效果 总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2
分析了 Ｍ Ｄ Ｃ Ｂ 型地震监测仪在廊坊连续４２ 个月观测期间, 所记录的类地应力值、８ 方位异常值和异常频度等１４ 种电磁波地震前兆异常参数的动态趋势、方向性反映、临震变化与一定范围内一定强度地震的对应关系, 并得出了电磁波前兆异常参数与地震数量关系的初步结果。 相似文献
12.
River water temperature is an important water quality parameter that also influences most aquatic life. Physical processes influencing water temperature in rivers are highly complex. This is especially true for the estimation of river heat exchange processes that are highly dependent on good estimates of radiation fluxes. Furthermore, very few studies were found within the stream temperature dynamic literature where the different radiation components have been measured and compared at the stream level (at microclimate conditions). Therefore, this study presents results on hydrometeorological conditions for a small tributary within Catamaran Brook (part of the Miramichi River system, New Brunswick, Canada) with the following specific objectives: (1) to compare between stream microclimate and remote meteorological conditions, (2) to compare measured long‐wave radiation data with those calculated from an analytical model, and (3), to calculate the corresponding river heat fluxes. The most salient findings of this study are (1) solar radiation and wind speed are parameters that are highly site specific within the river environment and play an important role in the estimation of river heat fluxes; (2) the incoming, outgoing, and net long‐wave radiation within the stream environment (under the forest canopy) can be effectively calculated using empirical formula; (3) at the study site more than 80% of the incoming long‐wave radiation was coming from the forest; (4) total energy gains were dominated by solar radiation flux (for all the study periods) followed by the net long‐wave radiation (during some periods) whereas energy losses were coming from both the net long‐wave radiation and evaporation. Conductive heat fluxes have a minor contribution from the overall heat budget (<3·5%); (5) the reflected short‐wave radiation at the water surface was calculated on average as 3·2%, which is consistent with literature values. Results of this study contribute towards a better understanding of river heat fluxes and water temperature models as well as for more effective aquatic resources and fisheries management. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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The estimation of a velocity model from seismic data is a crucial step for obtaining a high‐quality image of the subsurface. Velocity estimation is usually formulated as an optimization problem where an objective function measures the mismatch between synthetic and recorded wavefields and its gradient is used to update the model. The objective function can be defined in the data‐space (as in full‐waveform inversion) or in the image space (as in migration velocity analysis). In general, the latter leads to smooth objective functions, which are monomodal in a wider basin about the global minimum compared to the objective functions defined in the data‐space. Nonetheless, migration velocity analysis requires construction of common‐image gathers at fixed spatial locations and subsampling of the image in order to assess the consistency between the trial velocity model and the observed data. We present an objective function that extracts the velocity error information directly in the image domain without analysing the information in common‐image gathers. In order to include the full complexity of the wavefield in the velocity estimation algorithm, we consider a two‐way (as opposed to one‐way) wave operator, we do not linearize the imaging operator with respect to the model parameters (as in linearized wave‐equation migration velocity analysis) and compute the gradient of the objective function using the adjoint‐state method. We illustrate our methodology with a few synthetic examples and test it on a real 2D marine streamer data set. 相似文献
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We present a study of anisotropic parameter estimation in the near‐surface layers for P‐wave and converted‐wave (C‐wave) data. Near‐surface data is affected by apparent anisotropy due to a vertical velocity compaction gradient. We have carried out a modelling study, which showed that a velocity gradient introduces apparent anisotropy into an isotropic medium. Thus, parameter estimation will give anomalous values that affect the imaging of the target area. The parameter estimation technique is also influenced by phase reversals with diminishing amplitude, leading to erroneous parameters. In a modelling study using a near‐surface model, we have observed phase reversals in near‐surface PP reflections. The values of the P‐wave anisotropy parameter η estimated from these events are about an order of magnitude larger than the model values. Next, we use C‐wave data to estimate the effect of anisotropy (χ) and compute η from these values. These calculated η‐values are closer to the model values, and NMO correction with both η‐values shows a better correction for the calculated value. Hence, we believe that calculating η from χ gives a better representation of the anisotropy than picked η from the P‐wave. Finally, we extract the anisotropy parameters η and χ from real data from the Alba Field in the North Sea. Comparing the results with reference values from a model built according to well‐log, VSP and surface data, we find that the parameters show differences of up to an order of magnitude. The η‐values calculated from the C‐wave anisotropy parameter χ fit the reference values much better and show values of the same order of magnitude. 相似文献
15.
描述地震波衰减特征的品质因子Q对地震数据处理和油藏描述非常重要,在地震勘探领域,Q值一般通过垂直地震剖面(VSP)数据或地面地震数据得到.由于叠前地面地震数据具有复杂的射线路径且存在噪声、调谐干涉效应等影响,从叠前地震数据中准确估计Q值相对困难.本文以地震波射线传播为基础,根据同相轴局部斜率和射线参数的映射关系,将多射线波形频谱同时带入谱比法联合反演估计Q值,提出了基于多射线联合反演的速度无关叠前Q值估计方法.该方法通过局部斜率属性避开了速度对Q值估计的影响,局部斜率携带地震波传播的速度信息,具有相同局部斜率的地震反射波具有相同的传播射线参数.同相轴局部斜率是地震数据域的属性,而速度是模型域的参数,在估计Q值中采用数据域的属性参数可以直接应用于数据的联合反演,而不需要通过速度对其做进一步的转化,从而提高了Q值估计的精度.同时,本方法采用预测映射(predictive mapping)技术将非零炮检距反射信息映射到零炮检距处,从而获得零偏移距走时对应的Q值.模拟和实际算例验证了本文方法的有效性. 相似文献
16.
We use Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection radiometer (ASTER) data to estimate spatial energy flux and evaporation distributions at the Salar de Atacama, a playa in Northern Chile. Our approach incorporates ASTER surface kinetic temperature, emissivity, and reflectance data, ground-based meteorological measurements, and empirical parameters. Energy flux distributions are estimated using either spatially constant or spatially distributed values of model parameters, with spatially distributed parameters assigned separately to each land cover category in an image classification. We test the sensitivity of energy budget calculations to state variable and parameter values by conducting Monte Carlo simulations for regions with ground energy budget measurements. Results show that assigning spatially distributed model parameters via land cover classifications yields significant improvements to ground and sensible heat flux predictions. Latent heat fluxes cannot, however, be predicted with sufficient accuracy to allow estimation of area-integrated evaporative moisture loss at this low-evaporation playa. 相似文献
17.
Boriss Siliverstovs Rainald Ötsch Claudia Kemfert Carlo C. Jaeger Armin Haas Hans Kremers 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2010,24(2):311-326
This study models maximum temperatures in Switzerland monitored in twelve locations using the generalised extreme value (GEV)
distribution. The parameters of the GEV distribution are determined within a Bayesian framework. We find that the parameters
of the underlying distribution underwent a substantial change in the beginning of the 1980s. This change is characterised
by an increase both in the level and the variability. We assess the likelihood of the heat wave of the summer 2003 using the
fitted GEV distribution by accounting for the presence of a structural break. The estimation results do suggest that the heat
wave of 2003 is not that statistically improbable if an appropriate methodology is used for dealing with nonstationarity. 相似文献
18.
Robertas Alzbutas Tomas Iešmantas Mantas Povilaitis Jūratė Vitkutė 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2014,28(6):1431-1446
Taking into account a general concept of risk parameters and knowing that natural gas provides very significant portion of energy, firstly, it is important to insure that the infrastructure remains as robust and reliable as possible. For this purpose, authors present available statistical information and probabilistic analysis related to failures of natural gas pipelines. Presented historical failure data is used to model age-dependent reliability of pipelines in terms of Bayesian methods, which have advantages of being capable to manage scarcity and rareness of data and of being easily interpretable for engineers. The performed probabilistic analysis enables to investigate uncertainty and failure rates of pipelines when age-dependence is significant and when it is not relevant. The results of age-dependent modeling and analysis of gas pipeline reliability and uncertainty are applied to estimate frequency of combustions due to natural gas release when pipeline failure occurs. Estimated age-dependent combustion frequency is compared and proposed to be used instead of conservative and age-independent estimate. The rupture of a high-pressure natural gas pipeline can lead to consequences that can pose a significant threat to people and property in the close vicinity to the pipeline fault location. The dominant hazard is combustion and thermal radiation from a sustained fire. The second purpose of the paper is to present the combustion consequence assessment and application of probabilistic uncertainty analysis for modeling of gas pipeline combustion effects. The related work includes performance of the following tasks: to study gas pipeline combustion model, to identify uncertainty of model inputs noting their variation range, and to apply uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for results of this model. The performed uncertainty analysis is the part of safety assessment that focuses on the combustion consequence analysis. Important components of such uncertainty analysis are qualitative and quantitative analysis that identifies the most uncertain parameters of combustion model, assessment of uncertainty, analysis of the impact of uncertain parameters on the modeling results, and communication of the results’ uncertainty. As outcome of uncertainty analysis the tolerance limits and distribution function of thermal radiation intensity are given. The measures of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis were estimated and outcomes presented applying software system for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Conclusions on the importance of the parameters and sensitivity of the results are obtained using a linear approximation of the model under analysis. The outcome of sensitivity analysis confirms that distance from the fire center has the greatest influence on the heat flux caused by gas pipeline combustion. 相似文献
19.
The paper deals with the probability estimates of temperature extremes (annual temperature maxima and heat waves) in the Czech Republic. Two statistical methods of probability estimations are compared; one based on the stochastic modelling of time series of the daily maximum temperature (TMAX) using the first-order autoregressive (AR(1)) model, the other consisting in fitting the extreme value distribution to the sample of annual temperature peaks.The AR(1) model is able to reproduce the main characteristics of heat waves, though the estimated probabilities should be treated as upper limits because of deficiencies in simulating the temperature variability inherent to the AR(1) model. Theoretical extreme value distributions do not yield good results when applied to maximum annual lengths of heat waves and periods of tropical days (TMAX 30°C), but it is the best method for estimating the probability and recurrence time of annual one-day temperature extremes. However, there are some difficulties in the application: the use of the two-parameter Gumbel distribution and the three-parameter generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution may lead to different results, particularly for long return periods. The resulting values also depend on the chosen procedure of parameter estimation. Based on our findings, the shape parameter testing for the GEV distribution and the L moments technique for parameter estimation may be recommended.The application of the appropriate statistical tools indicates that the heat wave and particularly the long period of consecutive tropical days in 1994 were probably a more rare event than the record-breaking temperatures in July 1983 exceeding 40°C. An improvement of the probability estimate of the 1994 heat wave may be expected from a more sophisticated model of the temperature series. 相似文献
20.
Estimation of vertical water fluxes from temperature time series by the inverse numerical computer program FLUX‐BOT 下载免费PDF全文
下载免费PDF全文 The application of heat as a hydrological tracer has become a standard method for quantifying water fluxes between groundwater and surface water. The typical application is to estimate vertical water fluxes in the shallow subsurface beneath streams or lakes. For this purpose, time series of temperatures in the surface water and in the sediment are measured and evaluated by a vertical 1D representation of heat transport by advection and conduction. Several analytical solutions exist to calculate the vertical water flux from the measured temperatures. Although analytical solutions can be easily implemented, they are restricted to specific boundary conditions such as a sinusoidal upper temperature boundary. Numerical solutions offer higher flexibility in the selection of the boundary conditions. This, in turn, reduces the effort of data preprocessing, such as the extraction of the diurnal temperature variation from the raw data. Here, we present software to estimate water fluxes based on temperatures—FLUX‐BOT. FLUX‐BOT is a numerical code written in MATLAB that calculates vertical water fluxes in saturated sediments based on the inversion of measured temperature time series observed at multiple depths. FLUX‐BOT applies a centred Crank–Nicolson implicit finite difference scheme to solve the one‐dimensional heat advection–conduction equation. FLUX‐BOT includes functions for the inverse numerical routines, functions for visualizing the results, and a function for performing uncertainty analysis. We present applications of FLUX‐BOT to synthetic and to real temperature data to demonstrate its performance. 相似文献